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Wall Street’s Fear Gauge VIX Jumps 3.66% to 16.24 as Chip Stock Selloff Reignites Investor Anxiety Again

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FTSE 100 Surges 0.8% Today as Oil Eases and Markets

The CBOE Volatility Index, Wall Street’s primary measure of expected market turbulence, climbed 3.66% Thursday, rising 0.57 points to 16.24, as a renewed selloff in semiconductor stocks and lingering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East pushed investors back toward hedging strategies after a brief period of calm earlier in the week.

The move higher followed a close of 15.67 on Wednesday, when major U.S. stock indexes rallied broadly on cooler-than-expected inflation data. Thursday’s jump reversed that decline in volatility as technology and chip stocks came under renewed pressure, with the Nasdaq Composite falling more than 1% during the session even as the Dow Jones Industrial Average managed a modest gain, a divergence that has become increasingly common as investors reassess valuations across the artificial intelligence trade.

The VIX, often referred to as Wall Street’s “fear gauge,” measures the market’s expectation of volatility in the S&P 500 over the coming 30 days, derived from real-time pricing in S&P 500 index options. The index tends to move inversely with the broader stock market, rising when investors rush to buy protective options during periods of uncertainty and falling when demand for such hedges eases during calmer stretches. Thursday’s reading of 16.24 remains within what market analysts generally characterize as a “mid” range for the index, spanning roughly 12 to 20, a level historically associated with normal, non-crisis market conditions rather than acute distress.

Still, Thursday’s increase reflects a broader pattern of volatility that has persisted through much of July as investors have grappled with an unusually complex mix of catalysts. Chief among them has been the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, centered on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor through which roughly one-fifth of global oil trade passes. The volatility gauge spiked to an intraday high of 17.40 on July 13 after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fresh military strikes over the preceding weekend, with both sides offering conflicting accounts of whether the strategic waterway remained open to commercial shipping. That spike coincided with a sharp selloff in equities, as the Nasdaq fell 1.5% and the S&P 500 declined roughly 0.8% that day, while Brent crude oil jumped more than 9% to above $83 a barrel.

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Volatility in oil markets has closely tracked the swings in equity market sentiment throughout the conflict. Options market data tracked by Cboe show that one-month implied volatility for West Texas Intermediate crude surged as high as 68% at one point last week before easing to around 51% by the end of the week, as fears of a prolonged and severe disruption to oil supply moderated somewhat following the initial round of strikes. Notably, despite the sharp moves in energy markets, broader U.S. inflation expectations have shown relatively little reaction to the latest run-up in oil prices, a marked contrast to the inflationary shock that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, according to data compiled by Cboe.

The VIX has swung considerably over the course of 2026, reflecting a year marked by alternating waves of optimism around artificial intelligence spending and periodic bouts of anxiety tied to chip-sector valuations, inflation data and geopolitical risk. The index’s 52-week high of 35.30 was reached on March 9, a period of heightened market stress, while its 52-week low of 13.38 came on December 24 of last year, during a stretch of relative calm heading into the new year.

Recent weeks have illustrated just how sensitive the volatility index remains to shifts in the technology sector specifically. Chip stocks have whipsawed repeatedly since late spring, with sharp single-day selloffs followed by equally sharp rebounds as investors debate whether current spending levels tied to the AI buildout can be sustained. Earlier in June, the volatility gauge briefly tumbled as investors bid up shares of newly public companies including SpaceX, only to reverse a week later as what market commentators described as a “crash up” in chip stocks unwound just as quickly as it had begun.

Market strategists caution that a single day’s move in the VIX carries less significance than the broader trend and rate of change over time. A jump from the mid-teens to the low 20s over the course of several sessions, for instance, is generally viewed as more informative than the index holding steady at an elevated level for an extended period. Analysts also often examine the VIX in conjunction with the broader Fear and Greed Index, a composite measure that combines volatility with six other indicators, including market momentum, safe-haven demand and options market activity, to gauge whether investor sentiment has become excessively fearful or excessively greedy relative to historical norms.

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For now, Thursday’s uptick in the VIX appears consistent with a market caught between competing forces: strong second-quarter earnings from several major companies, including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, UnitedHealth Group and GE Aerospace, set against renewed skepticism about elevated valuations in AI-linked technology stocks and the unresolved military standoff between the United States and Iran. With crude oil prices remaining elevated and the Federal Reserve’s next policy meeting scheduled for July 28-29, traders said they expect volatility to remain a persistent feature of markets in the weeks ahead, even as the VIX’s current level suggests investors are not yet pricing in the kind of acute stress seen during past market crises.

Options traders will likely continue watching the relationship between near-term and longer-dated VIX futures contracts for additional signals about market expectations, a dynamic known as the volatility term structure that can offer clues about whether investors anticipate current turbulence to persist or fade in the months ahead.

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The financial winners and losers from the World Cup

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Fifa President Gianni Infantino speaking at a press conference

The 16 host cities across the US, Canada and Mexico have been welcoming an influx of fans and tourists boosting hospitality, hotels and local businesses.

But while the Scots drank Boston dry and have won the heart of the city and its people, experts say the long-term economic benefits are minimal.

Fifa estimated some $41bn would be added to the global economy, of which $17bn would boost the US economy alone, with 185,000 jobs created, mostly in hospitality and accommodation.

But Alexander Budzier, a fellow in management practice at Oxford University and chief executive of project management company Oxford Global Projects, says the long-term economic benefits of hosting such a big sporting event just do not materialise.

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Host cities actually typically see a big drop in visitors, he says, as many seek to avoid the tournament chaos.

And while there may be a spike in hiring, he argues it is typically only for lower-paid jobs in hospitality. “It creates jobs, but it does not create wealth,” he says.

Official figures show that hiring in US pubs, bars and restaurants ramped up ahead of the tournament in May, but the boom was short-lived.

The only “worthwhile” economic benefit, Budzier argues, is the regeneration projects that can be done, such as the redevelopment and housing built in Stratford in London following the 2012 Olympic Games.

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But due to much of this World Cup using existing stadia, hotels, training complexes and travel infrastructure, “there won’t be any economic benefits from development”.

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Diploma PLC (DPMAY) Q3 2026 Sales/Trading Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Jonathan Thomson
CEO & Director

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us. I’m here, as usual, with our CFO, Wilson Ng. I’ll say a few words on quarter 3, and then we’ll move as usual to Q&A. It’s been another great quarter for us, 15% organic growth, continuing the momentum from the first half of the year. The sector trends are broadly the same as they were in the first half. Controls, very strong broad-based growth, IS Group, Clarendon, Peerless, Windy still growing double digits, taking good market share in fast-growing end markets. Life Sciences, conversely, markets are tougher. We’re going through a little bit of product cycle — product life cycle refresh. I’m really, really pleased with what we’re doing in Life Sciences, what the team are doing, but we will expect low single-digit growth for the year.

Seals, we’ve seen some acceleration in quarter 3, and we’re expecting a good quarter 4, too, not celebrating. International is a bit better, but patchy and North American Seals is still doing very well. So look, overall, we’re really happy with the quality, with the performance of the portfolio. Peerless continues to perform fantastically, taking share in really good market conditions. Growth is moderating in the second half as we expected against very big comps. And that will continue to moderate into next year until we return to the track record of high

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Dow Jones Rises to 52,747 as Investors Rotate Into Blue-Chip Stocks While Tech and Chip Shares Slide

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FTSE 100 Surges 0.8% Today as Oil Eases and Markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher Thursday, climbing 88.62 points, or 0.17%, to 52,747.26, as investors continued rotating into industrial and blue-chip names even as technology and semiconductor stocks struggled to build on recent momentum.

The modest gain extended a two-day winning streak for the 30-stock index, which closed Wednesday up 150.37 points, or 0.29%, at 52,658.64. That session saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite both post stronger gains, rising 0.38% and 0.62%, respectively, as investors digested a softer-than-expected wholesale inflation reading and a bullish outlook from Dutch chip equipment maker ASML.

Thursday’s session unfolded with more caution across broader markets, even as the Dow pushed modestly higher. S&P 500 futures slipped 0.2% and Nasdaq 100 contracts dropped 0.8% ahead of the opening bell, as traders weighed whether recent earnings results justified further gains in artificial intelligence-related stocks. A strong earnings beat and raised sales outlook from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing failed to translate into fresh gains for the broader chip sector, a dynamic that has fueled much of this year’s stock market advance. Europe’s Stoxx 600 index was down 0.6% in early trading, while Asia’s technology-heavy indexes had another volatile overnight session.

The divergence between the Dow’s modest advance and weakness in more tech-heavy benchmarks reflects a broader rotation that has played out across markets in recent sessions, with investors shifting money away from semiconductor stocks that have led this year’s rally and into other sectors, including industrials and select technology names less exposed to chip supply chains.

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Corporate earnings have played a significant role in shaping sentiment this week. IBM shares tumbled more than 22% Tuesday after the company said it expected second-quarter earnings per share of $2.93 on revenue of $17.2 billion, both below Wall Street’s consensus estimates. The company attributed the shortfall to weaker-than-expected growth in its software and infrastructure businesses, saying customers had shifted spending toward memory chips instead. IBM’s stumble weighed on the Dow and rippled into the broader software sector, with Workday, Salesforce and Adobe shares falling 9%, 6% and 5%, respectively, as investors grew concerned about softening demand across enterprise software.

Chip stocks, meanwhile, showed signs of stabilizing after a rough stretch earlier in the week. South Korean memory chip maker SK Hynix rose nearly 7% ahead of Tuesday’s opening bell, reversing part of a double-digit decline from the prior session, as investors returned to some of the sector’s most beaten-down names.

Inflation data released this week offered some reassurance to markets. June’s Consumer Price Index came in better than expected, falling 0.4% on a monthly basis, while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was flat. Major indexes climbed on the data initially, though the reading came with a caveat: the decline reflected falling oil prices from earlier in the year that have since risen sharply again. Crude oil topped $80 a barrel this week after Iran and the United States traded attacks and the Trump administration reinstated a blockade on Iranian shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a move President Trump described in a social media post as intended to secure the strait while allowing the U.S. to collect a 20% fee on cargo shipped through the region. Crude prices have risen 16% from a recent low, a shift that could eventually pressure consumer and transportation-related stocks if sustained.

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh’s remarks to Congress this week have also factored into market sentiment, with investors watching closely for any signals about the central bank’s next moves on interest rates amid the mixed inflation and growth data.

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Thursday’s trading session carried a heavy earnings and economic data calendar. Wall Street was watching for results from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, GE Aerospace, UnitedHealth Group, Abbott Laboratories, US Bancorp, Netflix and Intuitive Surgical, alongside June retail sales figures and the weekly initial jobless claims report, both of which were expected to offer fresh insight into the health of the U.S. consumer and labor market.

Big Tech names that led Wednesday’s rally showed a mixed picture heading into Thursday. Apple shares closed at a record high Wednesday after a report indicated the company had received approval to launch its generative artificial intelligence features in China, sending the stock up more than 4%. Alphabet shares rose nearly 3% the same session, while Amazon and Microsoft each gained close to 3%. Whether those gains would hold on Thursday remained uncertain given the more cautious tone in premarket trading, with technology shares broadly turning negative even as the Dow’s more industrial and financial-heavy composition helped it post a modest gain.

Financial sector earnings have generally come in strong this reporting season. BlackRock shares jumped more than 5% earlier this week after the asset management giant posted second-quarter results that beat expectations, with the company reporting earnings of $13.91 per share on revenue of $7.08 billion. Morgan Stanley shares rose more than 1% in premarket trading after the bank reported record quarterly revenue and profit, posting $3.46 in earnings per share on revenue of $21.35 billion.

Market strategists have cautioned that expectations for this earnings season remain elevated. According to CFRA Research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall, second-quarter earnings per share for S&P 500 companies are projected to rise 20.9% year-over-year, well above the average quarterly increase of 11.6% seen since 2009. Full-year S&P 500 earnings are projected to climb 22.9% in 2026 and 18.2% in 2027, according to Stovall, even as the index’s forward price-to-earnings ratio sits at a premium to its 10-year average, raising the bar for companies to justify current valuations with their results.

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Billionaire investor Warren Buffett offered a note of caution on the broader market environment this week, telling CNBC’s Becky Quick that today’s market has become increasingly shaped by speculative trading rather than long-term investing, a dynamic he said has made it harder to find good value.

With crude oil prices elevated on Middle East tensions, corporate earnings delivering a mixed bag of results, and investors continuing to reassess the AI trade that has powered much of this year’s rally, Thursday’s modest gain for the Dow reflected a market still searching for consistent direction as the second-quarter earnings season moves into full swing.

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Wise Group plc (WSE) Q1 2027 Sales/Trading Call Transcript

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript