Walmart Inc. Stock Holds Steady Near $126 Amid Post-Earnings Recovery and Cautious 2027 Outlook

Walmart Inc. (NYSE: WMT) shares traded modestly higher Thursday, closing around $126 on Feb. 26, 2026, as the retail giant stabilized following a mixed reaction to its fiscal fourth-quarter results and forward guidance.

The stock opened near $126.60, fluctuated between a low of approximately $125.40 and a high near $127.40 in recent sessions, with volume averaging 15-20 million shares. After dipping to $124.87 on Feb. 19 following earnings, shares rebounded modestly, reflecting investor digestion of strong holiday performance offset by tempered expectations for the year ahead. Walmart’s market capitalization remains above $1 trillion, solidifying its status as one of the world’s most valuable companies.

The latest momentum stems from Walmart’s Feb. 19 report for the quarter ended Jan. 31, 2026 — the holiday period. Revenue reached $190.7 billion, up 5.6% year-over-year and beating estimates of $190.4 billion to $190.43 billion. Adjusted earnings per share came in at $0.74, edging past the $0.73 consensus. Operating income grew 10.8%, outpacing sales, while global e-commerce surged 24%, fueled by store-fulfilled pickup, delivery and marketplace expansion.

Full-year fiscal 2026 figures showed revenue of $713.2 billion, up 4.7%, with adjusted operating income advancing faster than sales. Global advertising business grew 46% to nearly $6.4 billion, including contributions from VIZIO. Membership fee revenue rose 15.1%, and Walmart U.S. comparable sales increased 4.6% excluding fuel.

The company announced a new $30 billion share repurchase authorization in February, underscoring confidence in capital returns. It also raised its annual dividend 5% to $0.99 per share, maintaining a reliable yield around 0.8% and extending a 52-year streak of increases.

Guidance for fiscal 2027 tempered enthusiasm. Walmart projects net sales growth of 3.5% to 4.5% (constant currency), adjusted operating income up 6% to 8%, and adjusted EPS of $2.75 to $2.85. Analysts had modeled higher figures — around 4.8% sales growth and $2.96 to $2.98 EPS — leading to initial selling pressure. Shares fell about 1.4% on earnings day but recovered as some viewed the outlook as conservative or “sandbagged.”

Analysts largely maintain optimism. Consensus leans toward “Buy” or “Moderate Buy,” with recent upgrades including Tigress Financial raising its target to $150 from $135 on Feb. 25, citing strong Q4 momentum. Truist Securities lifted its target to $139 from $127, while Bernstein moved to $134 from $129, both reiterating positive ratings. Average 12-month targets cluster around $131 to $134, implying modest upside from current levels, though highs reach $150 and some conservative estimates sit lower.

Walmart’s edge over peers persists. The stock has outperformed major retailers like Costco (down year-to-date in some comparisons), Amazon and Target amid economic uncertainty. E-commerce acceleration, advertising growth and Sam’s Club strength provide diversification beyond traditional grocery and general merchandise.

Challenges include consumer caution, food inflation mitigation and pharmacy headwinds from legislation. Yet Walmart’s scale, supply chain investments and AI-driven personalization position it well. Executives highlighted digital momentum as a key driver, with e-commerce profitability improving.

The next earnings report arrives in May 2026 for the first quarter of fiscal 2027. Analysts project EPS around $0.63 to $0.65 on 3.5% to 4.5% sales growth. Focus will remain on holiday carryover, consumer spending trends and execution on automation, marketplace and advertising.

As Walmart navigates a competitive retail landscape, its defensive qualities — everyday essentials demand, dividend reliability and buyback program — appeal to investors seeking stability. While guidance disappointed some, the underlying business health and strategic investments suggest resilience ahead.

With shares near recent highs and trading at a premium valuation, Walmart continues to draw attention as a retail bellwether. Whether it sustains momentum depends on delivering on guidance and capitalizing on digital tailwinds in an evolving consumer environment.