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What a 10 Percent Drop Means for Buyers, Sellers and Renters

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Sydney

SYDNEY — Australian house prices are slowing for the first time in years following a sweeping federal budget overhaul of the country’s property tax settings, and the big banks are now projecting declines across major capital cities that could represent one of the most significant corrections in the market’s modern history.

National Australia Bank has forecast a 2 per cent price drop across major capital cities, while Commonwealth Bank revised its growth estimate down to 3 per cent from 5 per cent. Investment bank Morgan Stanley has gone further, predicting house prices could fall between 5 and 10 per cent, describing the scenario as “one of the largest price corrections over the past 40 years.” Sydney has already recorded a 1.2 per cent monthly decline, and auction clearance rates have fallen across major markets as buyers and investors alike reassess the landscape following the May federal budget.

The catalyst was a pair of significant tax changes. The Albanese government amended the capital gains tax discount for investment properties, replacing the existing 50 per cent flat reduction with a smaller discount tied to the inflation rate. Separately, changes to negative gearing rules altered the financial calculus for property investors who use the strategy of deducting rental property losses against their taxable income. Together, the changes were explicitly designed to reduce competition between investors and first home buyers in a market that has become one of the least affordable in the developed world.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese addressed the criticism head-on in a recent television interview, framing the changes as a fairness issue rather than a risk to property values.

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“Everyone has acknowledged during this debate that the housing system is broken,” Albanese said. “Therefore we had to do something about it.”

The scale of the affordability problem those changes are intended to address is stark. The median house price in Australia is now 8.9 times the average income, according to data from property research firm Cotality, a ratio that independent economist Nicki Hutley described as making Australia one of the most unaffordable housing markets anywhere in the world on a price-to-income basis. House prices have increased by more than 400 per cent since 2000, rising at an average of approximately 8 per cent per year across that span.

Hutley framed the intent behind the tax changes clearly: “The idea behind the tax changes is to make fewer investors compete with particularly first home buyers so that the house prices will come down and make them more affordable.”

But who actually gets hurt and who benefits from a falling market depends almost entirely on where a person sits within the housing ecosystem, and the human consequences of price movements in either direction are far from abstract.

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For prospective buyers like 25-year-old Brisbane resident Zakariah Northcott, the prospect of falling prices represents what he calls a market correction that is long overdue. Northcott, who works as a customer service manager and has been saving for a home with his partner for years, describes the sustained price surge as a system rigged against younger Australians with ordinary incomes.

“It feels like the game’s rigged against us,” Northcott said. “Houses need to fall for it to be a reasonable thing for anyone to buy a house. If house prices continue to go up at the rate they are, it doesn’t matter if we save till we’re 45, we’ll never have a big enough deposit.”

Northcott’s concerns go beyond the financial to the deeply personal. He says that at current prices, his family plans are at risk. “If house prices don’t fall, that might mean that we just flat out don’t get to have kids. It’s our life goal. We’ve always wanted a family, a home, the same thing that our parents and grandparents had.”

For recent buyers, the equation is more complicated. Daniel Jones, a 27-year-old in Perth, purchased a two-bedroom apartment with his wife last September for approximately $725,000. The property was smaller than the couple, now new parents, would have liked, but they entered the market to stay close to family in Perth’s inner western suburbs. Jones says he supports falling prices even if it means his own home is worth less, framing the long-term trajectory of the market as an investment casino that has strayed far from its fundamental purpose.

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“It’s becoming an investment casino rather than what it should be, which is a place for people to live,” Jones said. He added that the increase in prices over recent decades is unsustainable and has systematically excluded younger Australians from home ownership.

Hutley cautioned that for buyers who entered the market recently and at high prices, a correction does carry real financial risk, particularly the possibility of negative equity, where a property’s value falls below the outstanding mortgage balance.

“There is a risk young new home buyers who’ve got higher levels of debt, if they lose their job and they have to sell and the house price is worth less, then that’s a big problem,” Hutley said. “Not so much for the banks because they have mortgage lenders insurance, but for a person to walk away with less than they started is problematic.”

For sellers, the dynamics shift again. Larissa Ferguson, a single mother of three in Victoria Point in Brisbane’s southeast, spent the last three years building a three-bedroom home at a total cost of approximately $830,000. She had planned to sell within the next year and use the proceeds to upgrade to a larger family home. Those plans are now on hold.

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“With housing prices possibly going down, I might not be able to get what I had hoped for which will impact me getting something big enough for us,” Ferguson said.

University of Sydney economist James Graham offered a perspective that he acknowledged often gets overlooked in the public debate around falling prices.

“If all houses are falling by 10 per cent, your house falls by 10 per cent, but so does the house that you want to buy,” Graham said. “So for that person, there’s not really any worse off than they were a month or two ago. People sometimes forget that. They feel like they’ve lost wealth, but as long as what you want to do with the wealth is just buy another home, it’s kind of a wash.”

Graham also put the scale of the projected correction in historical context: “House prices have been growing rapidly year on year for at least four or five years. 10 per cent sounds large and it is for some people, but it’s not that large in the grand scheme of ongoing house price growth that we’ve seen.”

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If the 10 per cent correction Morgan Stanley projects actually materializes, Australian house prices would return to approximately where they were in late 2024, erasing only the most recent phase of gains in a market that remains, by virtually any measure, among the most expensive in the developed world.

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Security staff to go on strike at Aberdeen Airport

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Georgia Finch and her husband on their wedding day

Security staff at Aberdeen Airport have announced 14 days of strike action in a row over pay.

The union said it was left with no option as negotiations with ICTS HBS Security, through the conciliation service Acas, failed to produce a breakthrough.

The strikes, involving baggage screening staff, are set to begin on Monday.

The Unite union is warning of significant delays if the strikes go ahead and is urging the company to return to the negotiating table.

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The development comes after summer strikes at Glasgow and Edinburgh airports were averted after new deals were struck.

Unite members unanimously supported industrial action at Aberdeen.

Union officials said there would be significant delays as its members in ICTS make up the majority of the baggage screening team at the airport.

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Europe’s STOXX 600 set for best week in over a month as rally broadens

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Europe’s STOXX 600 set for best week in over a month as rally broadens


Europe’s STOXX 600 set for best week in over a month as rally broadens

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Thailand Ranks Among Asia Pacific’s Top 5 Travel Destinations in Visa 2026 Study

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Cabinet Acknowledges Visa Measures to Boost Thailand’s Tourism and Economy

The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) celebrates Visa’s 2026 study, ranking Thailand among top Asian-Pacific destinations. Emphasizing familiarity and unique experiences, TAT supports quality tourism, digital payments, and flexible travel.

Thailand’s Popularity Among Asia Pacific Travelers

Bangkok, 2 July 2026 – The Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) is celebrating Thailand’s recognition in Visa’s 2026 Global Travel Intentions study. This study highlights Thailand as one of the top five destinations for Asia Pacific travellers, showcasing a strong demand for convenient and enriching experiences. With over 47,000 respondents, including more than 17,000 from the Asia Pacific region, the study reveals a shift towards intentional travel planning, emphasizing familiarity and practical choices.

Shifts in Travel Planning and Payment Trends

The study shows 63% of Asia-Pacific respondents prefer regional travel, ranking Thailand alongside popular destinations like Japan and Australia. Notably, 37% of travelers prioritize local experiences such as food and culture, surpassing the global average. The use of AI in planning is growing, with travelers seeking detailed information on accommodations and travel requirements. Digital payments are pivotal, with 73% of respondents carrying cards or mobile wallets, aligning with Thailand’s “Pay Like a Local” initiative for seamless tourist experiences.

Enhancing Thailand’s Travel Experience

Visa’s findings support TAT’s vision of quality-led tourism, focusing on providing meaningful and culturally rich experiences. The emphasis is on wellness, gastronomy, and local connections, aligning with the “Healing is the New Luxury” concept. TAT is enhancing its approach through targeted communication, digital convenience, and promoting lesser-known destinations. As travelers value flexibility, opportunities abound for inspiring spending on local dining and unique experiences, reinforcing Thailand’s appeal as a trusted, well-rounded travel destination.

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Source : Thailand ranks among Asia Pacific travellers’ top five destinations in Visa study

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Winmar statue to be removed from Optus Stadium

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Winmar statue to be removed from Optus Stadium

EXCLUSIVE: The Premier has directed VenuesWest to remove the statue of Nicky Winmar at Optus Stadium.

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PB Fintech shares slide up to 8% after Temasek arm likely sells over 2% stake via block deal

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PB Fintech shares slide up to 8% after Temasek arm likely sells over 2% stake via block deal
PB Fintech shares fell as much as 8.12% to an intraday low of Rs 1,545.50 on Friday after Temasek’s arm reportedly sold more than a 2% stake in the company through a block deal.

According to a CNBC-TV18 report, the deal, involving 2.37% of the company’s equity capital and valued at up to Rs 1,740 crore, was executed at a floor price of Rs 1,601 per share. The floor price represented a discount of nearly 5% to Thursday’s closing price of Rs 1,682.10.

The transaction is in line with a proposed block deal reported on Thursday, under which Singapore-based Macritchie Investments Pte was expected to sell up to 1.19 crore shares, or about 2.6% of PB Fintech, for approximately Rs 1,909 crore.

MacRitchie is a Singapore investment holding company linked to the city’s state investment company, Temasek.

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LSEG data as of Thursday showed MacRitchie owned 6.48% or 29.9 million shares in PB Fintech.


This is the second such block deal in PB Fintech in a little over a month. In May, the company’s co-founders, Yashish Dahiya and Alok Bansal, sold stakes to a group of domestic and foreign institutional investors.
According to exchange data, On May 29 a total of 38 lakh shares changed hands at Rs 1,751 apiece, translating into a transaction value of about Rs 665 crore.PB Fintech Chairman and Group CEO Yashish Dahiya sold 26 lakh shares, while Vice Chairman Alok Bansal offloaded 12 lakh shares.

On the buy side, the shares were picked up by a diverse set of institutional investors, including National Pension System Trust, Tata Mutual Fund, Morgan Stanley Asia Singapore, Goldman Sachs Bank Europe, BNP Paribas Financial Markets, and funds managed by Wasatch Advisors.

PB Fintech operates digital platforms Policybazaar and Paisabazaar, which are among the country’s largest online insurance and lending marketplaces.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)

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Mettler-Toledo International Is Still Overpriced

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Mettler-Toledo International Is Still Overpriced

Mettler-Toledo International Is Still Overpriced

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10 questions for Maxine Fox of 5 Circles

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The founder of the North East-based business support consultancy 5 Circles answers our questions

5 Circles is a North East-based consultancy.

Maxine Fox of 5 Circles.(Image: 5 Circles)

Maxine Fox is the face of 5 Circles – a firm launched in 2025 to provide strategic support across people, marketing, finance and operations.

What was your first job and how much did it pay? My first job was in the shop in the village where I grew up in East Yorkshire. I worked there for years — all the way through secondary school and when I was home from university. I loved it. It was my favourite job of all time! It was a small village so everyone knew everyone, which was great from a community point of view. It wasn’t so great when you were up to no good and everybody knew who your mum was. When I started, I got paid £1 an hour and I seem to remember getting really excited when it went up to £1.10 per hour. This was a long time ago!

What is the best advice or support you’ve been given in business? Establish boundaries with your time. Running a business is all-consuming and I learned very quickly that it was eating into my time with my family and affecting the things I enjoy doing outside of work. Whilst I don’t always adhere to the advice, I am getting better at knowing where I should devote my time and when to down tools for the day. When I first started, I was working seven days a week and into the evenings. That’s simply not sustainable — either health-wise or in terms of being happily married! When you’re running a business your time is the most precious commodity and it needs to be used wisely.

What are the main changes you’ve seen in your business/sector and what are the challenges you’re facing? I’ve only been running 5 Circles since December 2025 so it’s difficult to provide a wider view. The main change is that I’ve introduced services that weren’t part of my original business plan. I’ve been able to adapt to meet the demands of the businesses I work with and that’s been a positive thing. The main challenge I face is that my time is finite and I just need more of it.

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What would your dream job be? TV Script writer. When I was a kid I used to enjoy writing plays and sometimes I added a music score too.

What advice would you give to someone starting out a career in your sector? Have a trusted circle of people that you know will understand what you’re going through and how lonely it can be. People that you can run ideas past and people who’ll give you honest answers are like gold dust.

What makes the North East a good place to do business? The community. I’m not originally from the region but moved here in 2002. People from the North East are proud to be from here and I like that. In my experience, the business community wants to help one another.

How important is it for business to play a role in society? Very important. When businesses are successful and attuned to their communities, the knock-on benefits reach across all aspects of society from the economy to health and education.

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Outside of work, what are you really good at? I have a pretty good knowledge of pop knowledge from the 60s to the 90s. I recently won the Radio 2 pop quiz — 10 to the Top with Vernon Kay.

Who would play you in a film about your life? Amy Adams

Which three people would you invite to a dinner party, and why? My best friend Sam from home, my best friend Juliet from university and my sister Gem. We don’t get chance to catch up as much as I would like and nobody makes me laugh as much as those three do.

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White Mountains Insurance Jumps Over 5% as Its Stock Nears Book Value for the First Time in Years

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White Mountains Insurance Jumps Over 5% as Its Stock Nears

Shares of White Mountains Insurance Group surged more than 5% Wednesday, closing at $2,173.81, as investors warmed to a quietly exceptional holding company that has consistently grown book value per share at rates that rival the best-managed insurance businesses in the country, while trading at a discount to that underlying value for most of its recent history.

The $109.77 gain in a single session reflected renewed institutional attention to the Bermuda-based holding company, which operates across a diversified portfolio of insurance, reinsurance and financial services subsidiaries. The closing price was notably close to the company’s most recently reported book value per share of $2,170, disclosed in company filings as of March 31, 2026, making Wednesday’s close one of the rare moments in recent history when White Mountains has traded at or near intrinsic value rather than at a discount to it.

That relationship between stock price and book value is central to how sophisticated investors analyze White Mountains, a company that has long positioned itself as a holding company in the mold of Berkshire Hathaway, deploying capital into insurance-related businesses and financial services ventures where it believes it can generate above-average returns over long periods of time. Book value per share is the metric most closely watched by the company’s management and its long-term shareholders, as it reflects the per-share value of the company’s net assets and provides the clearest picture of wealth created or destroyed in any given period.

White Mountains reported book value per share of $2,188 as of December 31, 2025, representing an 18% increase for the full year 2024, according to a February 2026 press release. That annualized growth rate is considerably above the typical performance of publicly traded insurance and financial holding companies and reflects a year of strong results across the company’s primary business segments: Ark, its Lloyd’s of London-based specialty insurance and reinsurance platform, and Outrigger Re, its insurance-linked securities sidecar arrangement.

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Total assets stood at approximately $13.0 billion and common shareholders’ equity at $5.4 billion as of March 31, 2026, reflecting the accumulated capital deployment and value creation across a portfolio of businesses that White Mountains has built over more than two decades of disciplined investment.

White Mountains’ most significant operating unit, Ark Insurance Holdings, operates as a Lloyd’s of London managing agent and insurer with a specialty focus across property, specialty, marine and energy, casualty, and accident and health lines. Ark’s underwriting operations have benefited from what has been a favorable several years for specialty and reinsurance pricing following a prolonged period of underpriced catastrophe risk across the global insurance market. Property catastrophe reinsurance, in particular, has seen pricing improvements of 20 to 40 percent or more across successive renewal cycles since 2022, driven by the frequency and severity of natural catastrophe losses that forced Lloyd’s and international reinsurers to reprice their books.

Beyond Ark and Outrigger, White Mountains operates HG Global, a financial guarantee reinsurance business that provides credit enhancement for municipal bonds, which has continued to generate predictable, low-volatility earnings contributions. The company’s Kudu Investment Management subsidiary takes minority equity stakes in independent asset management firms, a niche that has grown into a meaningful earnings contributor as independent asset managers have sought strategic capital partners without giving up majority control to larger financial institutions.

Most recently, White Mountains announced that its White Mountains Partners operating company, which invests in smaller, often founder-led businesses in insurance and adjacent financial services, completed a majority acquisition of BaseSix Systems LLC in April, an information technology services company focused on the insurance distribution space. In May, White Mountains Partners announced that its portfolio company Enterprise Electric, doing business as Enterprise Solutions, had reached a significant operational milestone, further demonstrating the breadth of the holding company’s deployment of capital into niche businesses that fit its long-term ownership model.

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White Mountains has also been active in returning capital to shareholders. In December 2025, the company completed a modified Dutch auction tender offer, through which it repurchased shares from shareholders at a predetermined price range, a capital return mechanism frequently used by holding companies with more cash than near-term investment opportunities at attractive prices. Share repurchases and the tender offer reduced the diluted share count, which has the mathematical effect of increasing book value per share even in periods when the investment portfolio generates modest returns.

The company’s revenue for fiscal 2025 reached $3.74 billion, an increase of 58.65% from $2.35 billion in the prior year, with earnings of $1.09 billion, a 379% increase from the prior year’s figure. Those headline numbers reflect the scale of Ark’s premium growth alongside the improvement in investment income across the broader portfolio as interest rates have risen from historically low levels to more normalized territory over the past three years.

White Mountains is something of an institutional investor’s insider secret, a company rarely mentioned in mainstream financial media despite consistently delivering strong results for patient, long-term shareholders. Its shares are priced in the thousands of dollars per share, a deliberate choice that mirrors Berkshire Hathaway’s approach to maintaining a high per-share price as a way of attracting long-term oriented institutional investors rather than short-term traders. The company has not split its shares despite the high nominal price, reflecting a management philosophy that prioritizes owner-operator alignment over accessibility to retail investors who might trade the stock speculatively.

Wednesday’s strong session reflects a market beginning to recognize the gap between White Mountains’ current trading price and its demonstrable, consistently growing intrinsic value. Whether the catalyst was renewed interest from institutional investors, favorable insurance market conditions or simply a broader rotation into quality financial holding companies ahead of a period of economic uncertainty, the day’s gains pushed the stock into rare territory where it trades close enough to book value that even conservative analysts can make a straightforward case for owning it.

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Sandip Sabharwal calls IT a tactical trade, stays bullish on autos

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Sandip Sabharwal calls IT a tactical trade, stays bullish on autos
India’s IT sector may finally be attracting value investors after a prolonged correction, but market expert, Sandip Sabharwal believes the rally is unlikely to evolve into a long-term structural uptrend. While lower valuations and attractive dividend yields have improved the risk-reward equation, he sees the sector as a tactical opportunity rather than a buy-and-hold investment.

“The IT sector has been on a one-way downswing for almost the last year, and over the last three-four years it has gone nowhere. Valuations for TCS and Infosys have come down, so they present opportunities for value investors. But I see this more as a trading sector… we could make 10-20%, but I do not see the trend completely reversing,” he said.

Sabharwal said he has taken small positions in large-cap IT names but intends to exit once they generate reasonable returns instead of holding them for the long term.

DMart’s Valuation Still Looks Stretched

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Commenting on Avenue Supermarts‘ first-quarter update, Sabharwal said the retailer continues to deliver respectable operational performance, but its premium valuation remains difficult to justify.

“The performance is fine, but the valuations do not justify the growth. There is no upside to the stock in my view because of the very high valuations. It is unlikely to outperform,” he said.
Even though broader market sentiment remains supportive, he believes any upside in the stock will likely remain limited.
Marico Reinforces Consumption Strength
Marico’s stronger-than-expected quarterly update has strengthened confidence in the consumption story, according to Sabharwal. He pointed to healthy volume growth, improving rural demand and a positive outlook as encouraging signs for the broader FMCG sector.
“The numbers were very-very strong and the outlook also seems quite positive. It gives a positive connotation to the entire consumption space,” he said.

He added that his channel checks indicate consumer demand remained resilient during the first quarter and expects this trend to be reflected in upcoming earnings from other consumer companies.

Margin Pressures Should Ease
While higher input costs could weigh on margins for some FMCG companies in the near term, Sabharwal expects the pressure to be temporary as raw material prices cool.

“Demand has been holding up on the ground. Packaging costs are already below pre-war levels, and those benefits will start coming in. Prices will largely hold and help margins for the rest of the year,” he said.

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Auto Sector Well Positioned for Growth
Sabharwal remains constructive on the automobile sector after healthy sales across both conventional and electric vehicles. He believes the ongoing shift toward EVs is also accelerating replacement demand.

“Numbers have been very strong across ICE as well as EV portfolios. EV penetration is touching new records, and replacement demand could keep the momentum going,” he said.

He, however, cautioned that an unfavourable monsoon remains the biggest risk for rural demand.

“The possibility of a poor monsoon remains the key risk, but many earlier concerns have eased. The sector is well placed for growth,” he said.

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OEMs and Auto Ancillaries Both Attractive
Sabharwal expects both vehicle manufacturers and component makers to benefit from improving industry conditions, especially as export-related tariff concerns have moderated.

“We own Maruti, M&M and Bajaj Auto. All these companies should do reasonably well. We also have a small holding in Greaves Cotton, which could also do well,” he said.

EV Adoption Has More Room to Grow
The momentum in electric two-wheelers is unlikely to slow anytime soon, Sabharwal said, citing lower running costs and a faster replacement cycle.

“This momentum will continue and the shift is not going to stop. The EV market is huge, and replacement demand could accelerate further,” he said.

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Liquidity Will Determine Credit Growth
On the banking sector, Sabharwal said credit growth will eventually depend on the availability of deposits, although expected FCNR inflows could provide temporary support.

“If liquidity does not improve, it will cap credit growth at some stage. FCNR flows could bridge the gap this year, but deposit growth has to keep pace,” he said.

He added that stable foreign fund flows could also improve overall system liquidity.

Tata Motors Still Faces Execution Challenges
Sabharwal believes Tata Motors continues to remain a stock that periodically disappoints despite improvements in its domestic business.

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“Tata Motors is always a work in progress. Some quarters are good, then guidance disappoints the market. But domestically they seem to be stabilizing,” he said.

Titan Remains the Preferred Jewellery Bet
Despite strong updates from some jewellery companies, Sabharwal continues to favour Titan over the rest of the sector because of governance concerns elsewhere.

“For many jewellery companies, corporate governance remains a concern. Titan is the only credible player I see. If someone has to play the sector, they should play it through Titan,” he said.

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At Close of Business podcast July 3 2026

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At Close of Business podcast July 3 2026

Ella Loneragan speaks to Nadia Budihardjo about the Old Court House’s 190th anniversary and the potential for heritage buildings to be reused.

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