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Who Wins Sunday’s World Cup Final? Prediction Markets Give Argentina Just 42% Chance

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Harry Kane scores 2nd goal for England against Germany at Euro 2020

Argentina and Spain meet Sunday at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, for the 2026 World Cup final, and according to prediction markets and sportsbooks alike, Lionel Messi’s bid to lead Argentina to a second consecutive title comes in as the underdog, with most odds putting his team’s chances of winning at roughly 42%.

According to prediction market Kalshi, where betting volume on the final has surpassed $1.3 billion, Spain holds a 58.7% chance of winning the tournament, compared with 42.4% for Argentina. That gap has remained fairly consistent across multiple sportsbooks in the days leading up to kickoff. BetMGM opened Spain as a -175 favorite to lift the trophy, with Argentina priced as a +125 underdog. FanDuel Sportsbook lists Spain at -148 to win the Cup, with Argentina at +129. Across eight sportsbooks tracked ahead of the match, every operator lists Spain as the favorite in regulation time, though the size of that edge varies depending on the book, with the draw and Argentina’s price generally staying close together, a signal that oddsmakers expect a tight, low-scoring contest rather than a lopsided result.

Spain’s status as favorite stems largely from its defensive record through the tournament. La Roja have conceded just once in seven matches, a stretch that includes wins over Portugal in the round of 16, Belgium in the quarterfinals, and a 2-0 victory over France in Tuesday’s semifinal, secured through a Mikel Oyarzabal penalty. Spain also enters Sunday’s final riding a 37-match unbeaten streak dating back to last September, a run that spans both World Cup qualifying and the tournament itself, during which the team has posted 13 wins and four draws while allowing just four goals total.

Argentina, by contrast, has taken a far more dramatic path to the final. Lionel Scaloni’s side opened the tournament with three straight group-stage wins over Algeria, Austria and Jordan, before facing a series of tense knockout-round tests. Argentina trailed Egypt by two goals in the round of 16 before rallying to win 3-2, then defeated Switzerland 3-1 in extra time in the quarterfinals. In Wednesday’s semifinal against England, Argentina appeared headed for elimination until Enzo Fernández equalized in the 85th minute and Lautaro Martínez scored a stoppage-time winner off a Messi assist, completing a stunning 2-1 comeback. Despite conceding more goals than Spain throughout the tournament, Argentina has outscored opponents 19-7 overall and has found the net in every single match it has played, a streak analysts have pointed to as one of the team’s most reliable traits heading into the final.

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At the center of the matchup is the individual duel between Messi, 39, and Spain’s 19-year-old sensation Lamine Yamal, a storyline that has followed the tournament from its earliest previews. The two are meeting on a World Cup pitch for the first time, adding another chapter to a connection that traces back to a widely circulated photograph, shared by Yamal’s father, showing a young Messi cradling a six-month-old Yamal years before either knew what the moment would come to represent.

Messi enters the final still tied with France’s Kylian Mbappé for the tournament’s scoring lead at eight goals, though Messi currently holds the Golden Boot on the tiebreaker of assists, having recorded one more than Mbappé. Should Argentina win the final and Messi finish with the most goals or the tiebreaker advantage intact, he would become just the fifth player in the tournament’s history to win both the World Cup and the Golden Boot in the same edition. FanDuel currently lists Messi’s odds to score anytime during the final at +150, the shortest anytime-goalscorer price on the board, reflecting bookmakers’ expectation that he remains Argentina’s most likely source of offense even at this stage of his career.

Betting analysts covering the match have offered a range of predictions. Squawka’s model, which the outlet said had produced a 71% hit rate across 99 settled predictions through the tournament’s semifinals, forecasts a narrow 2-1 Spain win, with both teams scoring and Messi finding the net at some point in the match. CBS Sports betting analyst Martin Green, working off a hot recent streak, said he is leaning toward the match staying under 2.5 total goals, citing Spain’s stingy defensive record while still cautioning against underestimating Argentina’s resilience. “You have to admire Argentina’s never-say-die attitude,” Green said. “They’re also always in with a chance of winning any game when they have Messi in attack.”

Not every prediction favors a low-scoring Spain win. Yahoo Sports’ betting preview pointed to history working in Argentina’s favor when it comes to how these matches tend to unfold, noting that four of the last five World Cup finals have required extra time to settle, and predicting Sunday’s match will likewise remain deadlocked through 90 minutes, forecasting a 1-1 draw in regulation. That analysis argued that while Spain has been the tournament’s best overall team, the gap may not be wide enough to make Spain a true 90-minute favorite against an Argentina side built specifically to thrive in high-pressure, close-margin moments.

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Statistically, Argentina holds a narrow edge in several underlying performance metrics despite entering as the betting underdog, including a tournament-leading 91% passing accuracy, a 55% share of possession across its matches, and a 17% shot-conversion rate, marks that edge out Spain’s own numbers in those same categories, according to tournament data. A win for Argentina would make it the first nation to successfully defend a World Cup title since Brazil in 1962, while a Spain victory would deliver the country its second championship, following its lone previous title in 2010.

Kickoff is set for 3 p.m. Eastern time Sunday at MetLife Stadium, with the match broadcast on Fox and Telemundo in the United States. Weather conditions for the final are expected to be favorable, with forecasts calling for a high near 83 degrees, a mix of sun and clouds, light winds and only a modest chance of rain, setting the stage for what oddsmakers, analysts and fans alike expect to be one of the more tightly contested finals in recent World Cup history.

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Commodities: Oil Stabilises Despite Houthis' Red Sea Threat

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Five people dead in apparent mass drowning in Ohio river

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Full Hints and Clues Plus the Solution to Todays Puzzle #1858

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Nancy Guthrie

Wordle players looking for help with today’s puzzle can find hints, clues and the full solution below for Wordle #1858, the daily word puzzle released Tuesday, July 21, 2026.

Wordle challenges players to identify a five-letter word within six attempts, with the game providing color-coded feedback after each guess to indicate which letters are correct and properly placed, which letters appear in the word but in the wrong position, and which letters do not appear in the word at all. A new puzzle becomes available daily at midnight local time, meaning players around the world receive access to that day’s word at different moments depending on their time zone.

Hints for today’s Wordle

For players who want a nudge in the right direction without having the answer fully revealed, several outlets covering today’s puzzle offered a series of progressive hints. According to those hints, today’s word contains just one vowel among its five letters, a relatively uncommon structure that can make the puzzle trickier to solve through standard guessing strategies. That single vowel, the letter I, sits in the third position of the word.

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Today’s word also contains one repeated letter, with both instances of that letter appearing consecutively at the very end of the word. The puzzle begins with the letters “SH,” the same opening combination found in common words such as “share,” “shout” and “shrug,” a detail that several outlets suggested could help narrow down potential guesses.

A definitional clue

Beyond the structural hints, coverage of today’s puzzle also offered a definitional clue tied to the word’s meaning, which centers on deception or hidden promotional motives. According to that hint, the word describes someone who secretly promotes a product, scheme, or point of view while presenting themselves as an impartial or unaffiliated observer. The term is commonly used in discussions of online scams, influencer marketing, and situations involving undisclosed sponsorships or hidden financial incentives.

Today’s Wordle answer

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The answer to Wordle #1858 for July 21, 2026, is SHILL.

As both a noun and a verb, “shill” refers to someone who poses as an enthusiastic, impartial customer or supporter of something, such as at an auction, a street game, or an online promotion, while secretly working on behalf of the seller or organizer to encourage others to participate. As a verb, to “shill” means to act in that deceptive promotional capacity, or more broadly, to promote something in a misleading way for personal gain.

The word has seen a notable rise in everyday usage in recent years, particularly within the context of social media, where undisclosed sponsored content and hidden brand partnerships have brought increased public attention to the practice of “shilling” products or ideas without full transparency about financial or personal incentives involved.

Puzzle difficulty

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According to Wordlebot, the New York Times’ internal tool that analyzes daily Wordle difficulty based on aggregate player performance, today’s puzzle carried an average difficulty rating of 4.4 out of a possible 6 guesses, suggesting most players needed a moderate number of attempts to reach the correct answer. The puzzle’s relatively unusual letter structure, featuring only a single vowel and a doubled final consonant, likely contributed to that above-average difficulty level for many solvers.

About Wordle

Wordle, now owned and published by The New York Times, has become one of the most widely played daily word games since it first gained viral popularity in early 2022. The game’s simple format, one puzzle per day shared by all players regardless of location, has helped fuel its continued popularity, as solvers frequently compare results and maintain personal solving streaks across social media platforms.

Players looking for extra help with future puzzles can typically find daily hints and starter word suggestions published by various gaming and puzzle-focused outlets shortly after each day’s Wordle becomes available, offering a way to work through the puzzle with partial guidance rather than having the answer revealed outright.

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Other daily puzzles

For players interested in additional daily word and logic puzzles beyond Wordle, The New York Times also publishes several other games on a similar daily schedule, including Connections, a puzzle that challenges players to identify hidden groupings among a set of words, and Strands, a word-search-style puzzle built around a central theme, or “spangram.” Tuesday’s editions of both games, Connections puzzle number 1136 and Strands puzzle number 870, were also published alongside today’s Wordle, offering solvers additional options as part of their daily puzzle routine.

With today’s Wordle answer now solved, a new puzzle will become available at midnight local time Wednesday, continuing the game’s now-familiar daily rhythm. Players looking to maintain their solving streaks or simply enjoy the daily challenge can expect a fresh five-letter word and accompanying set of clues from various outlets to help guide their next attempt, regardless of whether today’s puzzle proved to be a quick solve or a more challenging one given its unusual single-vowel structure.

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Park Aerospace Corp. 2027 Q1 – Results – Earnings Call Presentation (NYSE:PKE) 2026-07-21

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OneWater Marine Inc. (ONEW) Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

This article was written by

Seeking Alpha’s transcripts team is responsible for the development of all of our transcript-related projects. We currently publish thousands of quarterly earnings calls per quarter on our site and are continuing to grow and expand our coverage. The purpose of this profile is to allow us to share with our readers new transcript-related developments. Thanks, SA Transcripts Team

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Amanda Healy teams up with Maroomba Airlines execs for new charter aviation services

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A charter airline owned by local aviation executives and Warrikal founder Amanda Healy has hit the skies of Western Australia.

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Developers reimagine Freo’s heritage

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The adaptation of heritage buildings is gaining favour as new builds become more difficult to stack up.

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(VIDEO) NYC Mayor Mamdani Says Netanyahu Arrest Warrant Should Be Enforced, Contradicting Trumps Vow of Safety

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New York City mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani, seen here on the day of the Democratic primary June 24, 2025, has little experience but has energized followers with a leftist campaign

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said Monday that the International Criminal Court’s arrest warrant against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu should be honored, directly contradicting an assurance from President Donald Trump earlier the same day that Netanyahu would face no arrest while in the United States.

Speaking at a press conference, Mamdani reiterated his position on the warrant in direct terms. “If someone is charged with a warrant by the International Criminal Court for these kinds of crimes, that’s something I believe should be honored. And I’ve also said that we will follow our local laws,” Mamdani said.

Trump’s assurance to Netanyahu

Mamdani’s comments came hours after Trump posted on Truth Social that Netanyahu “will not be arrested, in any way, shape, or form, while in the United States of America.” Trump’s post did not name Mamdani directly, though it came amid the mayor’s continued public statements about the ICC warrant, and credited Israel with assisting the United States in its ongoing military conflict with Iran.

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Trump later told reporters that he had no tension with Spain’s prime minister, Pedro Sanchez, despite having ordered a halt to trade with Madrid and criticizing Spain as a partner within NATO, remarks made during the same public appearance in which he addressed the Netanyahu situation.

Mamdani’s escalating rhetoric

Mamdani went further in describing the basis for his position, characterizing Netanyahu in stark terms tied to the war in Gaza. “We’re speaking about someone who’s the subject of an International Criminal Court arrest warrant. And he’s the subject of this arrest warrant for alleged crimes against humanity, for war crimes, and he’s the architect of the genocide against Palestinians in Gaza as Israel’s prime minister,” Mamdani said.

The mayor’s comments Monday represented a continuation of positions he first articulated during his mayoral campaign, when he said he would direct police to arrest Netanyahu if the Israeli leader set foot in New York City, framing the move as straightforward enforcement of the existing ICC warrant. Since taking office, Mamdani has confirmed that his administration’s legal department is actively reviewing whether the city has legal authority to act on the warrant, particularly given that Netanyahu typically travels to New York each September to address the United Nations General Assembly.

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In an earlier interview published Saturday, Mamdani had used even more direct language regarding where he believes Netanyahu should ultimately face justice. “I believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu belongs in The Hague,” Mamdani said at the time.

A position rooted in international law, Mamdani says

In prior public comments, including a Fox News interview with anchor Martha MacCallum, Mamdani has framed his position as grounded in a broader commitment to international law rather than a personal grievance against Netanyahu specifically. “I’ve said that this is a city that believes international law, and this is a city that wants to uplift and uphold those beliefs,” Mamdani told MacCallum, who noted in response that the United States itself does not recognize the ICC’s jurisdiction. Mamdani acknowledged that the U.S. has not signed the treaty establishing the court, but maintained that New York should nonetheless honor the warrant, comparing it to a separate ICC warrant issued for Russian President Vladimir Putin. Mamdani has said he does not intend to create new local laws to facilitate any arrest, but rather to exhaust existing legal options available to the city.

The ICC warrant’s origins

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The International Criminal Court issued arrest warrants for both Netanyahu and former Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant in November 2024, citing allegations of war crimes and crimes against humanity connected to Israel’s military campaign in Gaza. The ICC, established in 2002 to prosecute genocide, crimes against humanity and war crimes, operates under jurisdiction that Israel rejects, and neither Israel nor the United States is a member of the court.

Israel’s response

Israel has firmly rejected both the ICC’s authority and Mamdani’s remarks. In a statement reposted by Netanyahu himself over the weekend, his office described the ICC as “a kangaroo court that has no jurisdiction over Americans or Israelis.” The statement went on to characterize the warrant against Netanyahu as “bogus,” attributing it to what it described as a discredited former ICC prosecutor, Karim Khan, who the statement said issued the warrant shortly before allegations of sexual misconduct against him became public, characterizing the move as an attempt by Khan to divert attention from scrutiny of his own conduct.

Netanyahu’s office also accused Mamdani directly of using the arrest threat to distract from what it characterized as his own failed policies as mayor. The Trump administration has separately imposed sanctions on Khan and roughly a dozen other ICC staff members, in what officials have described as retaliation for the warrants issued against senior Israeli officials over the Gaza war, as well as separate ICC investigations involving U.S. personnel in Afghanistan.

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A clash with national implications

Monday’s exchange underscores a broader and increasingly public divide between Mamdani’s administration and the Trump administration over how the United States should engage with the International Criminal Court and its rulings involving allied foreign leaders. With Netanyahu expected to travel to New York in September for the UN General Assembly, as he has in previous years, the dispute over whether the city could or would attempt to act on the ICC warrant is likely to remain a closely watched flashpoint in the coming months.

With Trump having now publicly guaranteed Netanyahu’s safety from arrest while in the United States, and Mamdani continuing to insist that the ICC warrant should be honored under international law, the two leaders’ starkly opposing positions appear likely to remain unresolved heading into the fall, when Netanyahu’s anticipated UN visit could bring the dispute to a more concrete test. For now, both sides have shown no indication of backing away from their respective positions, leaving the question of how, or whether, any attempt to enforce the warrant in New York City might actually unfold as one of the more unusual open legal and political questions facing the incoming mayoral administration.

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General Motors (GM) earnings Q2 2026

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GM lays off 500-600 salaried IT workers to cut costs

The General Motors global headquarters in Detroit, Jan. 12, 2026.

Jeff Kowalsky | Bloomberg | Getty Images

DETROIT — General Motors is set to report its second-quarter earnings before the bell Tuesday.

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Here is what Wall Street is expecting, according to average estimates compiled by LSEG:

  • Earnings per share: $3.20 adjusted
  • Revenue: $47.01 billion

Those results would mark a more than 26% increase in adjusted earnings per share and 0.2% decline in revenue compared with a year earlier.

GM’s 2025 second-quarter results included $47.12 billion in revenue, net income attributable to stockholders of $1.9 billion, and adjusted earnings before interest and taxes of $3.04 billion.

Aside from earnings and any changes to the automaker’s 2026 guidance, investors will be monitoring effects from tariffs, vehicle pricing and commodity costs, including dynamic random access memory, or DRAM, chips.

Barclays analyst Dan Levy said he expects both GM and its crosstown rival Ford Motor, which reports next week, to post earnings beats for the second quarter “and at least a soft raise.”

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“[Automakers] are benefiting from strong macro – US [seasonally adjusted annual rate] outperformed in 1H, while pricing has remained steady. Moreover, both Ford and GM have embedded conservatism in their guides,” he said in a July 8 investor note.

GM raised its 2026 adjusted earnings guidance in April to reflect a $500 million tariff rebate to between $13.5 billion and $15.5 billion, or $11.50 to $13.50 a share, up $500 million, or 50 cents per share, from its previous expectations.

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Asia stocks climb as easing oil rally supports risk appetite

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EV secures key processing plant milestone

It’s been a busy 24 hours for Subiaco-based EV Resources, which continues to move closer towards antimony production at its Los Lirios mine in México.

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