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Why a 70:30 India-global portfolio makes sense in a changing world, Subho Moulik decodes

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Why a 70:30 India-global portfolio makes sense in a changing world, Subho Moulik decodes
As Indian equity markets delivered modest returns in 2025 compared with stronger gains in global markets, the debate around portfolio diversification has moved sharply into focus. With currency depreciation, evolving global growth drivers, and transformative themes like AI, defence, and quantum computing reshaping investing opportunities, sticking to a purely domestic strategy may no longer be enough.

In this context, a balanced approach that combines home market familiarity with global exposure is becoming increasingly relevant. Speaking to Kshitij Anand of ETMarkets, Subho Moulik, Founder and CEO of Appreciate, explains why a 70:30 India–global portfolio can help investors improve risk adjusted returns, reduce concentration risk, and participate in the world’s most powerful long term growth trends in a rapidly changing global landscape.

Kshitij Anand: If you look at the data for 2025, the Nifty delivered around 10%, while US markets were well ahead with returns of about 16%. Do you think some Indian investors may have felt they missed the rally? And if you look at returns in dollar terms, which are slightly worse for Indian investors, what are your views on that?


Subho Moulik: If you are an Indian investor with no diversification, you essentially saw your portfolio go up by about 10%, while the US market delivered almost double that when you include currency, roughly around 22%. The rise in US portfolios is not a one year story. If you look at the past few years, they have been bumper years for US investors.For full disclosure, my portfolio is about 70 to 80% global and around 20% India. And of course, we are in the business of democratising global investing, so I do have a bias. But if you look at the numbers, it is a very rational decision for Indian investors to allocate money not just to India, but also globally.

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On timing, I think there is still plenty of room left in the rally. Historically, the average bull market since World War II lasted about seven to eight years. There have also been bull markets that ran for as long as 15 to 16 years. The current bull market is well short of those durations. No one knows when a bull market will end. Anyone who claims they do, well, best of luck to them. I certainly do not know. But if you look at historical averages and current fundamentals, there should still be room for this bull market to continue.So, I do not think timing is the issue. The real question is about themes. What are you investing in, and why you did not diversify earlier. Let me ask you a question. We are all aware of the Nifty 50. If I told you the Nifty 50 exists, but you can only invest in two Nifty 50 stocks for the rest of your life, how would you react?

Kshitij Anand: In that case, I think that may have worked two decades ago, but things are changing now. No company survives indefinitely, and even within the Nifty 50 there is constant churn. If I take your point, yes, if I pick a Nifty 50 stock today, there is always a possibility it may not be part of the index six months down the line.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. If someone told you there are 50 stocks, but you can only invest in two, your first reaction would be why would I only invest in two stocks? You would want more choice. This ties back to the point you made earlier. India is a very important market from a future perspective, but it still represents only about 4%, or even less, of the global market. Therefore, as an investor, the rational choice is to think about diversification. How to allocate capital in a way that improves returns while reducing overall risk. That is what investors should be doing.

I do not think timing is an issue at all. In fact, if there is a sudden crash, say something completely unexpected happens in the next month and markets correct sharply, that would be a fabulous time to buy.

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. We have seen that happen multiple times in the past.

Subho Moulik: Exactly.

Kshitij Anand: In fact, there is another dilemma Indian investors might be facing. In terms of GDP growth, India is likely to deliver around 7% in 2026–27, while global growth is expected to be around 2.5 to 3%. However, the scale of the economy differs significantly between the US and India, and even a 2.5 to 3% growth rate for the US is considered quite strong. Still, many Indian investors tend to focus on the headline numbers, 7% versus 3%. Could you help investors understand how to translate this into portfolio decisions, especially when investing abroad?

Subho Moulik: I will address that. This comparison is a fallacy, a red herring, and I will explain why. When you invest in the US, you are not investing only in US focused or US centric companies. Let us take an example from beverages. Whether or not you believe that the beverage market in India will grow rapidly, let us assume for a moment that it grows in line with GDP. It is a mass consumer segment and should broadly follow the economic cycle. Now, who do you think benefits from the growth of India’s beverage industry?

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Kshitij Anand: US companies.

Subho Moulik: Coca Cola and Pepsi.

Kshitij Anand: Pepsi, and they are all US based companies.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. They are all based in the US. So, when you invest in US stocks, you are not necessarily investing in the US economy. Today, most global multinationals are listed in the US, and therefore, investing in US markets is effectively a bet on global growth.

What investors should increasingly think about is which sectors to invest in and where the global leaders in those sectors are located. To continue with the beverage example, if you believe beverages are a compelling investment theme, the global leaders in that space are listed in the US. If we move to a more realistic example, the leaders in semiconductors, companies like Nvidia, are also listed in the US. The leaders in genetics are largely in the US as well, with some presence in Europe and China. In defence, the dominant players are again largely US based. In emerging areas like quantum computing, which could become as exciting as, or even more exciting than, AI, there is once again a strong presence in the US and China.

So, while India has strong growth prospects, as an investor you already carry significant home country risk. You live in India, your home is in India, and your job is in India. From a portfolio perspective, diversification is important so that if something goes wrong domestically, at least part of your investments is insulated.

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Another important point is how different markets react to shocks. Twenty years ago, if the US market moved up by a certain amount, India would usually follow. Over time, the correlation between the two markets has been declining, and we expect this trend to continue. That actually increases the benefits of diversification.

Finally, there is also the comfort of investing in markets where the rule of law is well established and investors have confidence in capital protection and repatriation. So, the real question is not about 2% GDP growth versus 7% GDP growth. The real question is where are the pockets of the highest growth in the world, and how can investors access them?

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. In fact, I recall the saying: if the US sneezes, India catches a cold. If you correlate that here, earlier any movement in the US used to impact India. That has not been true recently because much of the rally has been driven by DIIs rather than FIIs. FIIs have taken a bit of a backseat, and DIIs are running the show. But yes, if you go back five to seven years, you could definitely say that if the US sneezed, India caught a cold. So, when you talk about the bull run and say there is plenty of room left, can we say the party continues on Wall Street as well, and not just on Dalal Street?

Subho Moulik: If you look at the current US bull run, there are a couple of common fears. One is that a large portion of returns has been concentrated in seven, eight or ten stocks; second, that forward earnings multiples are at all-time highs, making the market look bubbly and frothy; and third, that this is all speculation and will come crashing down. Let me address these one by one.

I do not think the data supports the view that the US market is becoming more concentrated. On a relative basis, if you look at gains over the last three years, 2025 was the lowest in terms of concentration. The Magnificent Seven contributed about 55% of gains in 2023 and around 42% in 2025, which shows a declining trend. You may still ask why seven stocks contribute around 40% of gains, but that is because these companies are expected to drive disproportionate disruption through what they are doing.

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The second concern is about valuations. The S&P 500 is trading at around 22x forward earnings, while the Magnificent Seven trade at about 29–30x forward PE. The historical peak has been closer to 40x, so we are still below those levels. Another important point is that a few years ago, small caps—represented by the Russell 2000—were not delivering returns. That has now changed, and the Russell 2000 has delivered reasonable returns. It typically underperforms the S&P 500 slightly and does not suffer from the same concentration issues.

So, I think economic performance is much more broad-based than what headlines suggest. Clickbait headlines are easy to consume, but deeper analysis often gets missed. That does not mean returns are perfectly democratic across all 5,000 stocks, but around 500–600 companies are delivering returns. Unlike episodes such as the Tulip bubble or the dot-com bubble, there are real earnings backing this rally. One can debate the quality of earnings or whether there is circularity among a few players, but these are real earnings driven by disruptive technology, particularly AI.

If you look at what is emerging—the combination of quantum computing, expanding AI use cases, and even progress towards viable fusion energy—each of these reinforces the other. There is an energy challenge, a computing power challenge, and a question of how quickly AI use cases can become real. As these factors interact, a very interesting virtuous cycle could emerge, though it may or may not play out.

Because of this, I am less worried about an imminent collapse of the bull run. Even if the bull market ends due to a black swan event—say China invades Taiwan, another pandemic emerges, or some other unforeseen crisis occurs—markets will crash. No one predicted COVID before it happened. Black swans are, by definition, unpredictable.

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But even in such scenarios, the right approach is to buy the dip. Dumb money buys at the peak; smart money buys on corrections. If you are fortunate enough to have cash during a market crash, invest it. A 25% correction is a good opportunity. Do not try to time the exact bottom—buy the dip.

Kshitij Anand: Another fear in the minds of Indian investors is currency risk. We have just touched 90 against the US dollar and are hovering around that level. There are headlines asking whether we are heading towards 95 or even 100. How should investors think about this?

Subho Moulik: It is very hard to fight basic economics. There will continue to be an inflation differential for some time. Even when the US was concerned about inflation, it was around 4%. The Fed will continue to focus on keeping inflation in check. India’s inflation is likely to remain higher, and as long as there is an inflation differential—and therefore an interest rate differential—I do not see the currency moving in any direction other than gradual depreciation.

If there were a structural economic shift where inflation and interest rate differentials reversed, then currencies would move the other way. I do not think that is likely over the next decade, though I could be wrong. Over the past three decades, the pattern has been consistent, and the next decade is likely to follow a similar trend. A 3–5% annual currency depreciation is quite plausible.

This is why I keep coming back to the point of diversification. Do not limit yourself to a narrow set of choices. Of course, back your own economy—you understand it well and there are many good opportunities in India—but do not put all your eggs in one basket. Diversify.

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Diversification also gives you access to sectors that simply do not exist in India, not because there is anything wrong with India, but because markets develop differently. Whether it is AI, defence, genetics, rare earths, or exposure to regions like Latin America, there are many themes where India has limited or no exposure. I can name 40 such themes.

By diversifying globally, you get exposure to the themes you believe in and also reduce the impact of currency depreciation. If you look at historical data over the past 20 years, a simple allocation of 70% India and 30% global equities—pure equity, not debt—would have outperformed either market individually. That is because of better risk-adjusted returns and lower correlation. When one market suffers a shock, the portfolio holds up better.

The reasons to diversify keep piling up. The biggest hurdle is inertia.

Kshitij Anand: And the first step is to start doing it.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. Start doing it. Kshitij, what is your global exposure?

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Kshitij Anand: My global exposure; well, it is not that much.


Subho Moulik:
So, less than 10%?

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely, less than 10%.

Subho Moulik: Then you need to move closer to 30%. After this, we can talk about how to do that. If you look at the average Indian investor’s portfolio—say, someone invested in Indian mutual funds or stocks—the average international exposure is probably less than 1%. So, there is a massive opportunity simply to reach a basic level of diversification.

Kshitij Anand: One point you mentioned earlier was the concentration of the rally. Another concern Indian investors often have is the lack of research available beyond the Magnificent Seven. How can investors address this gap and gain confidence to invest in US small and mid caps, especially when even Indian markets sometimes lack adequate data?

Subho Moulik: I have three responses to that. First—and I will briefly plug what we do, since it is relevant—if you use an app that specialises in global stocks, like Appreciate, you get access to analyst ratings such as buy and sell calls, consensus views, financial ratio snapshots, and stock-specific news and perspectives. The US is a data-rich market. If you go to the right partner, app or platform—and we are one of the leading providers of global stock access—there is a wealth of information available, much more than in India, because the market is more mature.

Second, before you start actively trading, it is better to begin with broad-based bets. For example, you could invest in an index like the S&P 500 or take sector-level exposure. Before saying, “I have enough conviction to buy stock X and sell stock Y,” it makes sense to start with index or sectoral investments, which are easier to understand and form a view on.

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Third, and this is something we plan to launch in the coming financial year, is AI-based investing advice and automated transactions. We are building a research engine with zero human analysts—completely AI-driven—that pulls insights from anywhere between 5 and 32 sources, monitors markets 24×7 (often in real time), distils that information, and provides recommendations that can be executed automatically. Investors can opt into such a plan, monitor performance, and continue only if they are comfortable. This is entirely optional. We believe we will be among the first Indian players to offer truly AI-based portfolios, and this will increasingly become another avenue for investors.

So, there are multiple ways for people to educate themselves. You can take a highly sophisticated route or a simpler one, but lack of information should not be a barrier.

Kshitij Anand: That is a smart approach, because lack of information and apprehension about where to start often keeps investors away. Most people only know a handful of global companies; Pepsi, Coke, as you mentioned, or the Magnificent Seven. Beyond that, unless a company makes headlines in Reuters or other global media, it tends to stay off the radar. It is good that you mentioned AI, because my next question is about that. Has the AI story moved from narrative to earnings?


Subho Moulik:
Let us break the AI story into three parts: the infrastructure required for AI, general-purpose use cases, and AGI, or artificial general intelligence. The infrastructure story is very real. Data centre build-outs, energy consumption, and chip manufacturing are all happening at scale. Right now, this infrastructure is being built to support use-case development, and as those use cases see wider adoption, usage will increase, further driving infrastructure demand. Most of the earnings-driven value creation so far has been on the infrastructure side.

In terms of use cases, some are already seeing broad adoption, especially content-related applications. For example, AI-generated videos and creative content are becoming mainstream, and creative companies are increasingly exploring how to use these tools. As a small example, a large portion of advertising content today is already AI-generated.

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Then there is AGI, which depending on who you listen to, is either imminent within the next five years, far away, or imminent but manageable. The debate there is more about governance and safeguards. Markets are not really pricing this in yet, because it is almost impossible to predict the timeline or outcomes.

So, there is a fair amount of reality in the AI story. The key question is whether a quarter of weaker-than-expected performance, due to slower scaling of use cases or a temporary dip in infrastructure demand, derails the theme, or whether investors look through it, recognising that this is a long-term, disruptive technology. In my view, AI is here to stay.

Kshitij Anand: AI is here to stay, that is…

Subho Moulik: AI is here to stay. Now, what form it will take, I do not know. I think we will see various avatars, no pun intended, over the next 2, 3, 5, 7 or even 10 years. If you think about it logically, and I may sound a bit philosophical here, if we take the idea of diversification and apply it to humanity as a planet, our best bet is to diversify onto other planets. I do not think we get there without some level of AI in space and related technologies. So, there are multiple reasons why I see AI continuing to evolve.

Another area where AI is clearly here to stay is defence. It is a genie that has been let out of the bottle and is not going back in. We are likely to see more autonomous systems and weapons of various kinds, and there is no reversing that trend. So, space and defence are other key use cases—some driven by utilitarian or altruistic motives, and others, quite frankly, driven by the objective of maximising efficiency in warfare because that is where money is made.

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Kshitij Anand: You mentioned Elon Musk, and his companies have also diversified into India—Tesla is now in India. And in fact, most US companies are diversified not just into India but across the globe. That is really the core point. That is what makes them special, and that is why investing in US markets is not just a bet on the US, but on global growth.

Subho Moulik: That is right.

Kshitij Anand: Another theme that has been getting a lot of attention from investors is Trump’s policies, especially on tariffs. Could that derail the US bull market story?

Subho Moulik: I think tariffs are primarily being used by Trump as a negotiating tool. This is not crystal-ball gazing; it is quite evident. As negotiations progress, the extreme tariffs, like 300% tariffs, tend to get walked back, and what remains is a more reasonable, lower-level tariff regime. I think that is likely to persist.

People and companies are also adapting. Supply chains are being reconfigured. Earlier, companies manufactured where it was cheapest—Mexico, China, or elsewhere. Now, when they look at landed costs including tariffs, they reassess and move production accordingly. In some cases, production may return to the US; in others, it may shift to different locations.

I do not think inflationary effects from tariffs have fully played out yet. As they do, that itself becomes a pressure point for tariff rationalisation, because inflation is a very sensitive domestic issue. Tariffs have not turned out to be the market destroyer many feared, largely because each time markets approached a tariff cliff, Trump often stepped back and extended timelines. That is consistent with his style, announce something drastic, then revise it. Markets have learned to partially price this in and then wait for clarity.

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So, I do not see tariffs as a doomsday scenario. Over time, tariffs are more likely to come down, especially if they start feeding meaningfully into inflation. There are also legal challenges in the US questioning whether tariffs have been imposed through entirely legal mechanisms.

Kshitij Anand: For investors, the key takeaway is not to focus only on headlines but to look deeper. Tariffs are there, but as you said, they need not dominate investment decisions in US stocks. Another geopolitical concern that has come up is the recent military action in Venezuela. There could be more such events. Does that hurt the US investment story?

Subho Moulik: There are multiple geopolitical flashpoints, Ukraine, Israel, Iran, parts of Africa, Venezuela, and potentially Taiwan. Among these, Taiwan is uniquely sensitive because of its role in global semiconductor supply and existing defence commitments. In most other cases, history shows a short-term disruption, usually a week or so, after which markets stabilise.

There are always winners and losers. I am not commenting on the legality or morality of actions, it has happened. Some companies lose, some gain. From a market perspective, the net impact is usually limited. In conflicts involving energy, oil companies tend to benefit. Defence companies almost always benefit. As long as shipping and logistics are not severely disrupted, markets move on.

Taiwan is the exception. But broadly, despite political turbulence and debates, such as discussions in the US around executive powers—markets tend to look through these events. As strange as it may sound, most of these developments turn out to be non-events from a market perspective.

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Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. Even historical data suggests that. Now, let us move to specific sectors. We have spoken about AI, and investors have already made significant gains in AI-led sectors, as well as in clean energy and healthcare. Are there specific sectors you believe investors should focus on in 2026 and beyond, from a long-term perspective?

Subho Moulik: I will start with the more pessimistic view and move toward the optimistic. Defence spending is going to rise globally, as a percentage of GDP. I would invest in defence. I would also invest in space. Defence companies will increasingly look at space-related opportunities, not just launch systems but allied businesses. Space is a compelling long-term theme.

AI remains interesting, perhaps a bit bubbly, but still compelling. I am also very bullish on quantum computing. To put it in perspective, it took about 30–35 years to go from supercomputers to personal computers. I believe the first quantum supercomputers could emerge within the next 10 years. That implies that over the next half century, we could potentially see quantum personal computers. That would be a game changer in processing power and applications. The last time fundamental physics translated into real-world applications on this scale, it changed the world, think transistors or nuclear technology.

Energy is another major theme. Rare earths are in focus because of their importance to renewables like solar. Hydrogen could be a disruptive force. Fusion energy, though longer-term, could reshape the entire debate around energy generation. Whether these innovations come from new energy companies or existing ones reinventing themselves is an open question, but energy remains a very interesting space.

Healthcare and life sciences are equally exciting. Drug discovery timelines are collapsing due to AI and computational advances. We are likely to see more biosimilars and breakthrough therapies. Longevity science is advancing rapidly, there are already claims that someone alive today could live to 300. Treatments for Alzheimer’s, obesity, and other conditions are evolving at an unprecedented pace.

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Much of this progress comes from deep, foundational scientific research that eventually leads to these breakthroughs. Which countries will lead that research? Will the US continue to maintain its edge? These are important questions. But in the near to medium term, these are the sectors I would focus on.

Kshitij Anand: The next question usually revolves around choosing between global ETFs and individual stocks. How should one take that call?

Subho Moulik: As I mentioned earlier, ETFs have a lot going for them. They give you sectoral or index exposure, they are relatively low-cost, and they allow you to invest in a basket of stocks in an efficient and inexpensive way. I would definitely say that global ETFs are far better than Indian mutual funds that invest in global ETFs, because the expense ratios tend to be much higher in the latter. It is usually better to own global ETFs directly.

Between ETFs and stocks, it really comes down to how comfortable you are making individual stock bets versus investing in a basket or a theme. It depends on your confidence level as an investor and where you are in your investment journey. Typically, I would suggest having a mix—some ETFs and some individual stocks. There is no magic formula.

Kshitij Anand: Absolutely, a mix-and-match approach works well. Also, there are certain barriers Indians face when investing in the US. How is Appreciate tackling those challenges? You spoke about data availability and how the app makes it seamless for Indian investors to make informed choices, with rankings and easy transactions for buying and selling.

Subho Moulik: Let me address that. First, we have worked very hard to simplify onboarding. This is a regulated space, so Appreciate is a registered broker-dealer with integrations across multiple banks. We go through rigorous information security processes, audits, and compliance checks, and we partner with trusted global brokers to ensure safety.

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All investments are covered by SIPC insurance in the US—up to $500,000—not for market losses, but for broker or custodian failure. Assets are held with a custodian, not by us. So safety and trust are key pillars. We also partner with mainstream banks and operate within a fully regulated framework. These are basic hygiene factors.

Onboarding itself is very simple—PAN, Aadhaar, and basic profile information. While we ensure all regulatory requirements are met, the process typically takes about two minutes before you can start investing.

On remittances, we know how painful the traditional process can be, filling out A2 forms, visiting bank branches, submitting documents, and answering queries. By the time all that is done, the stock you wanted to buy may have already moved significantly, and the opportunity—and excitement—is gone.

Kshitij Anand: And the excitement is gone as well.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. What we enable is seamless, fully digital remittance that happens quickly. From the investor’s perspective, there is ample research available on the platform. We are also introducing AI-based recommendations, which we discussed earlier. Essentially, we remove the operational friction so that you can focus on portfolio performance and investment decisions, and leave the rest to us.

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We also make tax compliance easy. You can download everything you need for tax filing and share it with your CA. We try to eliminate all the usual stress points so that investors can focus on making the right decisions.

Kshitij Anand: You mentioned upcoming sectors earlier. How is Appreciate helping investors identify or track these themes? Is there something within the app that allows investors to go overweight on certain emerging sectors?

Subho Moulik: We are doing this in two ways. First, we are launching access to global thematic portfolios. We scan global markets and work with some very interesting asset managers, evaluate past performance, and curate a set of around 30–35 thematic portfolios. These cover themes such as energy, AI, genetics, country-specific themes, and commodities versus equities.

These will be available at the beginning of the new financial year. Investors can choose from these themes, or even request a bespoke portfolio, provided they meet a minimum investment threshold.

Second, we are launching AI-based recommendations with automated execution. The idea is simple—no individual investor can realistically track 30-plus data sources, monitor real-time markets, interpret signals, and execute trades continuously. Our AI engine does exactly that, delivering a package of automated buy and sell decisions. Investors simply authorise participation in the programme and then assess performance. If they are comfortable, they continue; if not, they can opt out.

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We believe these two offerings are strong differentiators, allowing investors to use their time more effectively—deep-diving into areas of interest and leaving the rest to us.

Kshitij Anand: Another concern for investors is regulatory compliance and taxation. How does Appreciate make that seamless?

Subho Moulik: From a compliance perspective, we are very strict about being fully compliant. We are a SEBI-registered investment adviser, a registered broker-dealer, and we are launching our own payment service provider to enable fully regulated remittances. We comply with all relevant Indian and US regulations, and investor assets are protected under SIPC insurance.

We work with leading banks in India and have undergone extensive due diligence, so this is a safe, mainstream, and well-regulated space—not a fringe asset class.

On taxation, we provide a simple solution. With the click of a button, you can download your complete tax package and hand it over to your CA. That makes the process very seamless.

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Kshitij Anand: Absolutely. All of this helps Indian investors step out of their comfort zone and invest beyond borders. Any advice for investors heading into 2026?

Subho Moulik: I will take a cue from your first question. It is never too late to make the right investment decision. If you are already investing, you are doing something positive for your financial health. The question is how to make it better.

I strongly believe in a 70–30 portfolio—keep 70% in India, which you understand well, and allocate 30% globally. If you are unsure how to do this, you can come to Appreciate, reach out to us on social media, or even use another platform. The key point is diversification.

After diversifying, focus on disciplined investing. Very few individual investors successfully time the market. Invest regularly and focus on buying during corrections, which add far more value in the long term than chasing rallies.

Do not worry too much about timing. Systematic investing works. As you gain confidence, you can start taking sectoral or specific stock bets—but not necessarily at the very beginning. We have published several articles on this, and as you know, a diversified portfolio with systematic investing delivers better outcomes over time.

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Do not rely on tips, they do not work. Focus on fundamentals, whether you are investing in India or abroad.

Kshitij Anand: Whether India or abroad.

Subho Moulik: Exactly. Stay the course, and you will be fine.

(Disclaimer: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times.)

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Wall Street Brunch: Five Of The Mag 7 Ride Into Earnings Town (undefined:AAPL)

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Listen below or on the go via Apple Podcasts and Spotify

Five of the Magnificent 7 report in a packed week. (0:17) Powell probe dropped, Warsh now faces vote. (2:00) Berkshire meets without Buffett after steep underperformance. (3:26)

The earnings floodgate opens this week with 180 S&P 500 companies reporting, including 11 Dow components and — most importantly — five of the Magnificent 7.

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Apple (AAPL) reports Thursday, with investors focused on what a leadership transition means for its AI strategy.

Microsoft (MSFT), Meta (META), Amazon (AMZN) and Alphabet (GOOG) (GOOGL) all report Wednesday. Here’s how the debate is shaping up:

Apple:

Bulls say the company may trail in AI today, but its hardware ecosystem and on-device processing could position it as the long-term edge-computing winner.

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Bears argue Apple is already priced like an AI leader, and with execution lagging and a CEO transition underway, the stock risks multiple compression.

Microsoft:

The question is AI payback. Bulls see signs that AI investment is translating into revenue, with cost discipline protecting margins. Skeptics counter that spending still runs ahead of returns and that Azure growth and Copilot adoption must justify the capex.

Meta:

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Bulls say Meta shows the clearest AI monetization so far, with strong ad-driven margin expansion. The risk is macro — higher-for-longer rates could pressure both ad budgets and valuation multiples.

Amazon:

It’s a timing debate. Bulls point to AWS and custom silicon as long-term AI winners. Bears warn heavy capex and slower revenue conversion could weigh on near-term free cash flow.

Alphabet:

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The upside lies in its fully integrated AI stack across search and cloud. The risk is that AI disrupts the core search business before new revenue streams scale.

Also on the calendar:

  • Verizon (VZ) reports Monday.
  • Visa (V), Coca-Cola (KO) and Starbucks (SBUX) report Tuesday.
  • AbbVie (ABBV), Qualcomm (QCOM) and Ford (F) are up Wednesday.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY), Merck (MRK) and Mastercard (MA) report Thursday.
  • And Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX) close out the week Friday.

The only thing that could rival such an earnings deluge would be a big Fed week. And while this week’s decision is widely expected to result in no rate move, it’s still a consequential one.

Wednesday’s FOMC decision will be the last with Jerome Powell as chairman.

On Friday, the DOJ said it had closed its criminal investigation into Powell and handed oversight of the probe into the Fed building renovation to the Inspector General. That clears the path for Kevin Warsh, whose nomination had been held up during the investigation. A Senate Banking Committee vote is expected Wednesday and Chairman Thom Tillis posted Sunday he would vote to confirm Warsh.

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Economist Joseph Brusuelas said Powell “stood tall. He stared down the president. The DOJ blinked.”

Markets now face a scenario in which the new chairman could be a dissenting vote, Brusuelas added, as Warsh may push for a rate cut in June but lack majority support.

At Wednesday’s press conference, investors will also be watching for any signal on whether Powell intends to remain on the Board of Governors. He had previously indicated he would stay at the Fed until the DOJ probe was completed.

Prediction market Kalshi currently shows an 84% chance Powell exits as a Fed governor before 2027, with 65% odds of departure before August and 55% before June — down from peaks seen immediately after Friday’s DOJ announcement.

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Economist Claudia Sahm said both the Fed and Warsh could benefit from Powell remaining temporarily as a governor.

“That’s only true because of the White House’s pressure campaign on the Fed,” she said. “In normal times, it would be time to go. It is not normal now.”

Also this week, Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.A) (BRK.B) will hold its first annual meeting Saturday without Warren Buffett at the helm.

Barron’s said the stock may offer an attractive entry point following one of its worst stretches of underperformance relative to the S&P 500 since Buffett took control in 1965.

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In news this weekend, President Trump is safe after a gunman attempted to breach security at the Washington Hilton during Saturday night’s White House Correspondents’ Dinner.

The president was on the main dais when shots were fired on another floor of the hotel. Trump, the First Lady, Vice President JD Vance and Cabinet members were evacuated.

The New York Times reported that while some attendees sought shelter under tables, former Goldman Sachs chief Lloyd Blankfein, seated near the front of the ballroom, turned to a colleague and asked, “Are you going to finish that salad?”

In geopolitics, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner did not travel to Pakistan for previously planned talks aimed at ending the Iran war.

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Trump said Iran “can call us anytime they want.”

Odds of a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran by the end of May slipped to around 30% on Polymarket.

And for income investors, Cal-Maine (CALM) goes ex-dividend on Wednesday, with a May 14 payout date.

Morgan Stanley (MS) goes ex-dividend Thursday, paying out May 15.

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Costco (COST) goes ex-dividend Friday, also paying May 15.

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TTM Technologies: The AI Bottleneck Story Is Fully Valued, Earnings Preview (Rating Downgrade)

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TTM Technologies: The AI Bottleneck Story Is Fully Valued, Earnings Preview (Rating Downgrade)

TTM Technologies: The AI Bottleneck Story Is Fully Valued, Earnings Preview (Rating Downgrade)

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Stable Income In Uncertain Times: The Hidden Opportunity In RIV And RIV.PR.A (NYSE:RIV)

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Stable Income In Uncertain Times: The Hidden Opportunity In RIV And RIV.PR.A (NYSE:RIV)

This article was written by

Arbitrage Trader, aka Denislav Iliev has been day trading for 15+ years and leads a team of 40 analysts. They identify mispriced investments in fixed-income and closed-end funds based on simple-to-understand financial logic.
Denislav leads the investing group Trade With Beta, features of the service include: frequent picks for mispriced preferred stocks and baby bonds, weekly reviews of 1200+ equities, IPO previews, hedging strategies, an actively managed portfolio, and chat for discussion. Learn more.

Analyst’s Disclosure: I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Seeking Alpha’s Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any investment is suitable for a particular investor. Any views or opinions expressed above may not reflect those of Seeking Alpha as a whole. Seeking Alpha is not a licensed securities dealer, broker or US investment adviser or investment bank. Our analysts are third party authors that include both professional investors and individual investors who may not be licensed or certified by any institute or regulatory body.

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AI-Driven App Creation at Your Fingertips

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Empowering Everyone: AI-Driven App Creation at Your Fingertips

Have you ever had a brilliant idea for a phone application, only to stop because you do not know how to code? You are definitely not alone. Many great ideas never see the light of day because traditional development takes a lot of time, money, and highly specialized knowledge. But the rules have officially changed. Using an AI app builder, you can now turn your best ideas into fully functioning software.

You get to skip the frustrating learning curve and jump straight into creating something amazing. Artificial intelligence translates your plain English instructions into working features. This puts the power of software creation directly into the hands of entrepreneurs, creators, and small business owners everywhere.

This guide will walk you through exactly how artificial intelligence helps you build, launch, and grow your own application. You will learn how to design beautiful interfaces, connect with your audience, and manage your new project with total confidence.

TL;DR Summary:

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  • Artificial intelligence translates your everyday words into working software features.
  • Smart platforms save you thousands of dollars in expensive development costs.
  • Custom apps give you a direct line of communication with your audience via push notifications.
  • You can build your project visually, tweaking designs with simple text prompts.
  • Launching your own application opens up massive new opportunities for your brand.

From ideas to reality with an AI App Builder

Building software used to mean staring at confusing screens for hours. Now, an AI app builder does the heavy lifting for you. You simply describe what you want your application to do, and the system generates the structure. It is like having a professional developer sitting right next to you, ready to take your instructions and turn them into reality.

You can build features like user profiles, shopping carts, and booking systems just by typing a prompt. If you need a reliable place to start, Base44 is a fantastic option. It gives you intuitive tools to build custom applications without writing a single line of code. You get to focus entirely on how your software solves problems for your users.

This fast process encourages you to experiment. You can test out different features to see what works best. If you want to add a loyalty program for your top customers, you just ask the builder to include one. The system sets up the database, the point tracking, and the reward screens automatically.

You also save an incredible amount of money. Hiring a firm to build custom software can cost tens of thousands of dollars. Smart builders let you launch your project for a tiny fraction of that price. You can take those savings and invest them directly back into growing your brand.

Base44 - AI app builder
Base44 – AI app builder

Image source: Base44 – AI app builder

Getting your brand noticed everywhere

An application does much more than just sell products or book appointments. It provides massive business visibility because your logo sits directly on your customer’s phone screen. Every time they unlock their device to check a text message or read the news, they see your brand. This repeated exposure builds strong familiarity and deep trust over time.

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You also get to send push notifications directly to their pockets. When you have a big sale or an exciting update, you bypass crowded email inboxes entirely. This direct communication line keeps your audience engaged and excited about what you offer. It turns casual shoppers into fiercely loyal fans who interact with your business daily.

Having your own application also proves you take your business seriously. It shows your customers that you invest in providing them with the absolute best experience possible. People naturally gravitate toward brands that make interacting easy and enjoyable.

Gathering valuable audience insights

When people use your application, you learn exactly what they want. You can see which products they view the most, what time of day they log in, and which features they ignore. This data helps you make much smarter business decisions.

If you notice that a specific video tutorial gets thousands of views, you know your audience wants more of that content. You can confidently adjust your business strategy to give them exactly what they crave.

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Designing a great user experience

People expect applications to look beautiful and work flawlessly. If a screen takes too long to load or a button is hard to tap, they will simply delete it and move on. Artificial intelligence helps you design intuitive layouts that guide users naturally from one screen to the next.

The system analyzes thousands of successful designs to suggest the best placement for your buttons, images, and menus. You can easily customize the colors and fonts to match your existing branding perfectly. If a layout feels clunky, you can ask the artificial intelligence to rearrange the elements for better visual flow.

You want to keep your navigation as simple as possible. Make sure your users can find exactly what they need in three taps or less. When you remove friction from the user experience, people stay on your software much longer.

Making accessibility a priority

Great design means ensuring everyone can use your tools comfortably. You want high contrast between your text and background colors so words are easy to read. Make your buttons large enough for thumbs to tap easily on smaller phone screens.

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Smart builders often include built-in checks to ensure your layout is legible and accessible. Following these simple design principles shows your audience that you care deeply about their comfort.

Launching and getting downloads

Building your software is only the first part of your journey. Once you finish testing your features, you need people to actually download it. The art of mobile app promotion involves sharing your story across the right channels to build genuine excitement.

Start by telling your existing email subscribers and social media followers about your upcoming launch. Offer them a special discount or exclusive early access if they download the software on the very first day. Giving your biggest fans a VIP experience encourages them to leave glowing reviews.

Artificial intelligence can even help you write catchy social media captions and email newsletters to spread the word faster. You can generate a week’s worth of promotional posts in just a few minutes, keeping your audience excited leading up to launch day.

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Optimizing for the app stores

When you submit your project to the major app stores, you want people to find it easily when they search. Write a clear, descriptive title that tells people exactly what your software does. Include relevant terms in your description that your ideal customers might search for.

Include bright, clear screenshots showing off your best features. A short preview video works wonders, too. When people can see exactly how the software works before they download it, they feel much more confident clicking that install button.

Growing and maintaining your project

The best applications evolve based on real user feedback. When people start using your creation, pay close attention to what they love and what frustrates them. You can use your intelligent builder to add new features or fix bugs in just a few minutes.

You never have to wait weeks for an external team to make a simple update. You control the dashboard, so you control the timeline. Keeping your software fresh and updated tells your users that you are actively listening to their needs.

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Encourage your users to submit ideas for new features right inside the application. When you launch a feature that a customer specifically requested, they feel incredibly valued. This builds a vibrant, active community around your brand.

Staying consistent with updates

Try to release updates regularly to keep your software running smoothly. You do not need to invent massive new features every week. Sometimes an update just makes the screens load faster or changes a button color for better visibility.

Consistent maintenance shows the app stores that your project is alive and well. This can actually help your software rank higher in search results, bringing you even more downloads over time.

Expanding your toolkit for the future

Once you see how easy it is to create your own software, you will naturally look for more ways to grow your brand. You might start wondering, what is an AI website builder and how can it complement my new application? These smart tools work together to create a cohesive, beautiful experience for your customers across all their devices.

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You can build a stunning landing page that directs people straight to your app store links. You can write blog posts that explain how to get the most out of your new features. When your tools talk to each other, managing your business becomes incredibly simple.

You have everything you need to build something incredible. You no longer have to let technical barriers hold your best ideas back. Grab your notebook, write down your goals, and start exploring an intelligent builder today. You are completely ready to turn your vision into a reality that people absolutely love to use.

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Sawe Shatters Sub-2 Barrier in Historic London Marathon Triumph

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Luka Dončić

LONDON — Kenyan Sabastian Sawe etched his name into marathon history Sunday, becoming the first runner to break the two-hour barrier in an official race with a stunning 1:59:30 victory at the 2026 TCS London Marathon.

The 46th edition of the world’s most iconic mass-participation marathon delivered drama from the gun on a picture-perfect spring day in the British capital. More than 59,000 runners took to the streets, transforming London into a sea of color, cheers and determination as elites chased records and everyday heroes chased personal bests and charity fundraising goals.

Sawe, the defending champion, seized control in the final miles on a fast, flat course that starts in Greenwich and Blackheath before winding past Tower Bridge, Canary Wharf and the capital’s landmarks, finishing on The Mall in front of Buckingham Palace. His time shattered the previous world record of 2:00:35 set by the late Kelvin Kiptum in Chicago in 2023 and bettered the London course record he helped establish.

“This is unbelievable. I came here to win and to make history,” Sawe said moments after crossing the line, his face a mix of exhaustion and elation. “The pacemakers did a perfect job, and the crowd carried me through those tough last kilometers. Running under two hours in a real race — it’s something I dreamed about.”

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Ethiopia’s Yomif Kejelcha, making his marathon debut, pushed Sawe hard throughout, finishing second in 1:59:41 — just 11 seconds behind. Uganda’s Jacob Kiplimo took third in 2:00:28, the third man under 2:01 on the day in one of the deepest fields in marathon history.

In the women’s race, Ethiopia’s Tigst Assefa defended her title in commanding fashion, clocking 2:15:41 to break her own women-only world record set in London the previous year. The performance shaved seconds off that mark despite cooler conditions that favored fast times but tested athletes’ pacing strategies.

Kenya’s Hellen Obiri claimed silver in 2:15:53, with compatriot Joyciline Jepkosgei earning bronze in 2:15:55. The top three women all dipped under 2:16, highlighting the extraordinary depth in the elite women’s field that included Olympic and world champions.

Assefa, who has emerged as one of the sport’s most dominant distance runners, credited her training block and mental preparation. “London is special to me. The energy here is unmatched,” she said. “To win again and improve the record feels like a gift.”

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The race unfolded under ideal conditions with temperatures in the low 50s Fahrenheit and light winds — prime for record attempts. Elite men started at 9:35 a.m. BST after the wheelchair races and elite women. Wheelchair winners included Switzerland’s Catherine Debrunner in the women’s division for her fourth London title in five years.

British interest centered on strong showings from home athletes. Mahamed Mahamed led the British men in 10th overall with 2:06:14, while Eilish McColgan was the top British woman in seventh at 2:24:51. The performances underscored growing depth in U.K. distance running.

Organizers reported record ballot entries exceeding 1.1 million for the 2026 race, reflecting its enduring appeal as both a competitive spectacle and a massive charity fundraiser. Past editions have raised tens of millions for good causes, with 2025’s haul topping £87 million.

The course, largely unchanged since 1981, offers a spectator-friendly layout with massive crowds lining the route. Celebrities and everyday runners in fancy dress mixed with elites, creating the carnival atmosphere London Marathon is famous for. Actors, musicians and athletes like Sir Mo Farah helped start the waves.

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Sawe’s victory caps a remarkable rise. The 30-year-old Kenyan has rapidly climbed the marathon ranks, using his track speed — he was a standout 10,000-meter runner — to devastating effect over the longer distance. His sub-2 performance validates the progress in marathon training, nutrition and shoe technology while adhering to World Athletics rules for official records.

Kejelcha’s runner-up effort in his debut marathon signals another Ethiopian talent ready to dominate. The former world indoor mile record holder transitioned seamlessly, proving his pedigree translates to the roads.

For Assefa, the repeat win solidifies her status. After a breakthrough in Berlin and Olympic success, she has now conquered London twice with record runs. Her rivalry with Kenyan stars like Obiri and Jepkosgei promises thrilling battles ahead in the Abbott World Marathon Majors series.

Beyond the elites, the stories of perseverance defined the day. Runners with disabilities, charity teams and first-timers crossed the finish line well into the evening. The event’s inclusivity shone through, with staggered starts managing the massive field safely.

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Weather played a supporting role. Clear skies and mild temperatures helped thousands achieve personal bests. Organizers praised the crowd support, which has become legendary for pushing athletes through “the wall” around miles 18-20 in Canary Wharf and beyond.

Post-race analysis highlighted pacing strategies. In the men’s race, a large pack stayed together through halfway in just over 59 minutes before accelerations whittled it down. Sawe’s surge after 35K proved decisive.

In the women’s contest, Assefa and her rivals pushed hard from the start, producing one of the fastest fields ever assembled.

The London Marathon continues to evolve while honoring its roots. As part of the World Marathon Majors, it attracts global talent and casual runners alike. Its flat, fast profile makes it a favorite for record attempts, as evidenced Sunday.

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Sawe’s historic run will be debated for years: the first official sub-2:00 marathon. While exhibition events have seen faster times, this victory under competitive conditions with verified timing and doping controls cements its place in athletics lore.

Looking ahead, eyes turn to future Majors and the Olympics. Sawe, Assefa and their rivals have set a new standard. The sport’s depth suggests more barriers will fall.

For the tens of thousands who laced up Sunday, the memories will last a lifetime — the roar at Tower Bridge, the relief at the finish, the sense of community that makes the London Marathon unique.

Results reflect the day’s excellence. Men’s top 10 included multiple sub-2:06 performances. Women’s podium was separated by mere seconds, showcasing tactical racing at the highest level.

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As the sun set on The Mall, finishers continued streaming in, medals around necks, faces beaming with accomplishment. The 2026 London Marathon will be remembered as the day the two-hour barrier fell in earnest and a champion defended her crown with record flair.

In a sport built on human limits, Sunday pushed those limits further. Sawe and Assefa delivered performances for the ages on one of running’s grandest stages.

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Heavy Snow Warning Hits Colorado, Montana, Wyoming as 2 Feet of Snow and 45 mph Winds Threaten

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A man walks in heavy snow in Uonuma, Niigata Prefecture, on Dec. 20, 2022.

DENVER — Forecasters issued heavy snow warnings Monday for parts of Colorado, Montana and Wyoming as a powerful late-season winter storm threatens up to two feet of snow, wind gusts reaching 45 mph and dangerous travel conditions across the northern Rockies.

A man walks in heavy snow in Uonuma, Niigata Prefecture, on Dec. 20, 2022.
Heavy Snow

The National Weather Service warned that the system, combining heavy moisture with strong winds, could create blizzard-like conditions in higher elevations and make travel “very difficult to impossible” on many roads through Tuesday. Accumulations of 12 to 24 inches are possible in the hardest-hit mountain areas, with locally higher totals above 9,000 feet.

The storm system is moving through the region Monday into early Tuesday, bringing a mix of heavy snow, blowing snow and gusty winds that will reduce visibility and create drifting. Lower elevations may see 6 to 12 inches, while exposed ridges and passes face the highest impacts.

Impacts and Warnings in Effect

In Colorado, warnings cover the central and northern mountains, including areas around Vail, Aspen and Steamboat Springs. Officials urged residents to prepare for power outages, closed mountain passes and hazardous driving. The Colorado Department of Transportation reported multiple chain restrictions already in place on major routes like Interstate 70.

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Montana faces similar threats in the western and central parts of the state, with heavy snow warnings extending into parts of eastern Idaho. Wind gusts could reach 45 mph or higher in exposed terrain, creating whiteout conditions. The Montana Department of Transportation advised against non-essential travel, particularly in the mountains.

Wyoming’s warnings focus on the western half of the state and the Tetons, where accumulations could exceed two feet in some spots. Jackson Hole and areas near Yellowstone National Park are expected to see significant impacts, potentially affecting park operations and spring tourism.

The combination of heavy snow and strong winds has prompted winter storm warnings and advisories across the three states. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility, increasing the risk of accidents. Forecasters warned of possible avalanche danger in steep terrain after recent warmer weather followed by this new loading.

Preparation and Safety Messages

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Emergency management officials in all three states activated cold-weather response plans. Residents were advised to stock up on supplies, check on vulnerable neighbors and prepare for possible power outages from heavy snow loading on lines. Schools in some mountain communities announced early closures or remote learning for Tuesday.

Travelers face the greatest risk. Chain laws are in effect on many highways, and several high mountain passes could close. Airlines reported potential delays and cancellations at regional airports including Denver International, Bozeman Yellowstone International and Jackson Hole.

The National Weather Service urged drivers to have emergency kits with blankets, water, snacks, flashlights and charged devices. “If you don’t need to travel, stay home,” one forecaster said during a briefing. “These conditions can change rapidly and become life-threatening.”

Why This Late-Season Storm?

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Meteorologists attribute the storm to a strong upper-level low-pressure system pulling Pacific moisture into the Rockies. Although April is typically a transition month, late-season snow events remain common in the high elevations of the northern Rockies. This system follows a pattern of active spring weather that has already brought several snow events to the region.

Climate patterns show variability, but heavy spring snow helps replenish mountain snowpack critical for summer water supplies. However, the timing creates challenges for ranchers, road crews and tourism operators transitioning to warmer-season activities.

Broader Regional Effects

The storm’s impacts extend beyond the three primary states. Parts of Utah, Idaho and South Dakota may see lighter snow or mixed precipitation on the edges. Lower elevations could experience rain changing to snow, creating slick conditions on untreated roads.

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Energy providers braced for increased demand as residents crank up heating. Utility companies in Colorado and Montana reported extra crews on standby for potential outages. Ranchers moved livestock to sheltered areas ahead of the heaviest snow.

Looking Ahead

The system is expected to move out by Tuesday evening, with improving conditions Wednesday. However, lingering cold air could bring more light snow showers mid-week. Longer-range forecasts suggest a gradual warmup, but mountain snowpack will remain well above average into May.

This event highlights the unpredictable nature of spring weather in the Rockies. While welcome for water resources, it serves as a reminder that winter conditions can persist well into the shoulder season. Officials continue monitoring the storm’s progress and will update warnings as needed.

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Residents and visitors in Colorado, Montana and Wyoming are encouraged to stay informed through local NWS offices, emergency alerts and transportation department websites. With proper preparation, most impacts can be managed, but the combination of heavy snow and strong winds demands respect and caution.

As the storm unfolds, communities across the northern Rockies are hunkering down, hoping for safe passage through one final major blast of winter weather before spring fully takes hold.

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Timeline of Threats Shaking American Politics

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Cole Tomas Allen

WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump has now survived three documented assassination attempts since entering the political arena as a candidate in 2024, each underscoring deep national divisions and raising persistent questions about political violence, Secret Service protocols and the safety of America’s leaders.

Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Atrium Health Amphitheater in Macon, Georgia, on November 3, 2024.
Trump Survives Third Assassination Attempt: Timeline of Threats Shaking American Politics
AFP

The incidents, spanning a Pennsylvania rally, a Florida golf course and a high-profile Washington dinner, have become defining moments in Trump’s political narrative. They fueled his resilience messaging, influenced security enhancements and contributed to a polarized discourse on threats against public figures. As investigations continue into the latest event, here’s a detailed summary of what is known about the three attempts.

Attempt 1: Butler, Pennsylvania Rally — July 13, 2024

The most serious and visually dramatic attempt occurred on a warm Saturday evening in Butler, Pennsylvania, during a campaign rally as Trump sought the presidency. At approximately 6:11 p.m. EDT, 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, perched on the roof of a nearby building about 130 yards from the stage, opened fire with an AR-15-style rifle.

Trump was speaking when the shots rang out. He clutched his right ear, ducked behind the podium as Secret Service agents swarmed him, and was rushed offstage with blood visible on his face. A bullet grazed the upper part of his right ear. One rally attendee, 50-year-old former fire chief Corey Comperatore, was killed while shielding his family. Two others were critically injured.

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Crooks, a registered Republican with a history of searching for both Trump and President Joe Biden online, was killed by a Secret Service counter-sniper. The FBI labeled it an assassination attempt and potential act of domestic terrorism, though his exact motive remains unclear despite extensive investigation. The incident prompted widespread scrutiny of Secret Service lapses, including failure to secure the rooftop.

Trump raised his fist in a iconic image as he was escorted to a vehicle, later telling supporters he felt “very lucky” and crediting divine intervention. The event galvanized his base, boosted campaign donations and shifted the national conversation toward unity and security in the lead-up to the November 2024 election.

Attempt 2: Trump International Golf Course, Florida — September 15, 2024

Two months later, on a Sunday afternoon in West Palm Beach, Florida, the second attempt unfolded while Trump was golfing at his private club. Around 1:31 p.m., Secret Service agents spotted a rifle barrel protruding from bushes near the course perimeter, roughly 300-500 yards from where Trump was playing on the fifth fairway.

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The suspect, 58-year-old Ryan Wesley Routh, a roofer and vocal supporter of Ukraine who had expressed strong anti-Trump views online, had reportedly positioned himself hours earlier. Agents fired at Routh, who fled but was arrested shortly after on Interstate 95. No shots were fired at Trump, and he was unharmed.

Routh faced federal charges including attempted assassination. Prosecutors highlighted his online activity and apparent intent to prevent Trump’s election. He was later sentenced to life in prison. The episode again highlighted perimeter security challenges and led to further reviews of protection for high-profile figures.

This attempt came amid heightened tensions during the final stretch of the 2024 campaign. Trump used the incidents to portray himself as a fighter against a “rigged system,” resonating with voters concerned about law and order.

Attempt 3: White House Correspondents’ Dinner, Washington — April 25, 2026

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The third attempt occurred Saturday night, April 25, 2026, at the Washington Hilton during the annual White House Correspondents’ Dinner, an event Trump attended as sitting president. Gunshots erupted near a security checkpoint outside the ballroom around 8:36 p.m. as Trump, First Lady Melania Trump, Vice President JD Vance and Cabinet members were inside.

A 31-year-old man identified as Cole Tomas Allen of Torrance, California, allegedly charged the checkpoint armed with a shotgun, handgun and knives. Shots were exchanged; one law enforcement officer was struck in a bullet-resistant vest but uninjured. Secret Service agents swiftly evacuated Trump and others. No serious injuries were reported among attendees.

Allen, described as a tutor and amateur video game developer, was taken into custody. He faces charges including attempted assassination, using a firearm in a crime of violence and assault on a federal officer. Authorities believe he acted alone, though motives are under investigation. Trump later posted footage on Truth Social and addressed the nation, vowing to “keep going” as he did after Butler.

The incident at the same venue where President Ronald Reagan was shot in 1981 renewed debates on political rhetoric, media events and presidential security in an era of heightened polarization.

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Broader Context and Impact

Beyond these three, Trump has faced additional threats, including an Iran-linked plot and a February 2026 Mar-a-Lago incident where Secret Service killed an intruder. Officials have cited foreign actors, but the primary attempts remain the 2024 pair and the 2026 dinner shooting.

These events have profoundly shaped Trump’s second term. He has referenced surviving them as evidence of divine protection and used the narrative to push for stronger law enforcement and border policies. Public polling suggested the attempts influenced voter sentiment in 2024, with many viewing them as emblematic of national turmoil.

Critics argue intense political rhetoric from all sides contributes to such violence, while supporters see targeted persecution. Investigations continue to examine mental health, online radicalization and security protocols. The Secret Service has implemented reforms post-Butler, yet challenges persist in protecting leaders amid mass events.

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Legacy of Resilience Amid Division

Trump’s responses — from the fist pump in Butler to defiant statements after the dinner — have cemented a public image of unyielding strength. “They keep trying, and I keep winning,” he has said in variations, framing the attempts as part of a larger battle.

For the nation, the attempts serve as sobering reminders of vulnerability. In a deeply divided country, they highlight risks of escalating rhetoric and the need for civil discourse. As Allen’s case proceeds and reviews of the latest security breach unfold, questions linger: How many more threats must leaders face before systemic changes take hold?

The three attempts on Donald Trump have not only tested personal security but also the fabric of American democracy. From Pennsylvania fields to Florida fairways to Washington ballrooms, each incident adds to a timeline of peril that continues to influence politics, policy and public trust. As the country moves forward, the full repercussions of these moments will shape history for years to come.

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Who Will Win Mutua Madrid Open 2026? Sabalenka Poised for Madrid Three-Peat

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Luka Dončić

MADRID — World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka stands as the overwhelming favorite to claim her third straight Mutua Madrid Open title in 2026, powering through the high-altitude clay at the Caja Mágica with the same ruthless efficiency that has defined her dominant season.

Aryna Sabalenka
Aryna Sabalenka

The 27-year-old Belarusian, defending champion from 2025, has looked nearly unstoppable in the early rounds. She opened her title defense with a gritty 7-5, 6-3 win over American Peyton Stearns, then cruised past Romania’s Jaqueline Cristian 6-1, 6-4 to reach the fourth round. Sabalenka extended her 2026 winning streak to 14 matches and sits at 25-1 for the year, arriving in Madrid fresh off a Sunshine Double sweep.

Madrid’s faster, bouncier clay at altitude has long suited Sabalenka’s explosive baseline game. Her heavy serve and first-strike power become even more lethal here, giving opponents less time to react. She has won the event in 2021, 2023 and 2025, and is chasing sole possession of the all-time record with a fourth crown.

“This court gives me confidence,” Sabalenka said after her latest victory, flashing the one-handed backhand winner she jokingly called “the shot of my life.” “I feel at home here. The conditions help my game, and the crowd energy pushes me.”

Her path looks manageable in the early stages, though a potential Round of 16 clash with Naomi Osaka looms after the four-time Grand Slam champion dispatched Anhelina Kalinina. Sabalenka defeated Osaka comfortably in Indian Wells earlier this year.

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The draw has already delivered drama. Fourth seed Iga Swiatek, a former Madrid champion, retired in the third round against Ann Li after battling injury, marking a significant early exit for the Polish star. Li earned her second top-10 win of the tournament with the victory.

Second seed Elena Rybakina, ranked No. 2, remains a major threat in the bottom half. The Kazakh powerhouse boasts one of the tour’s biggest serves and has the weapons to challenge Sabalenka in a final. Coco Gauff, seeded third, continues her climb but faces a tough test against Sorana Cirstea in ongoing action.

Other notable results include Hailey Baptiste’s upset of Jasmine Paolini, advancing the American to the last 16 with her second top-10 win of 2026. Belinda Bencic and Mirra Andreeva also stay alive as dangerous floaters.

Sabalenka’s Road to Dominance

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Sabalenka’s 2026 campaign has been one for the ages. After early hard-court struggles in prior years, she refined her movement and mental approach, transforming potential vulnerabilities into strengths. Her serve, once prone to double faults, now anchors her aggression. On clay, she has embraced longer rallies while maintaining her trademark power.

Coaches and analysts point to her improved fitness and tactical flexibility. In Madrid, she has shown the ability to grind when needed — as against Stearns — before shifting into overdrive. Her head-to-head records against most top players remain favorable, particularly on faster surfaces.

Rivals acknowledge the challenge. “She’s playing at another level right now,” one player said anonymously. “When she’s on, it’s very difficult to find answers.”

The Contenders

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While Sabalenka leads the pack, several players could spoil the party. Rybakina’s flat-hitting style travels well on Madrid’s clay. Gauff brings elite defense and athleticism, though her clay results have been inconsistent compared to hard courts. Jessica Pegula, seeded fifth, offers steady baseline play and remains a dark horse.

Rising talents like Victoria Mboko and established veterans such as Belinda Bencic add depth. Osaka’s return to form makes her a wildcard, especially with her improved clay movement.

Injuries have thinned the field somewhat. Amanda Anisimova withdrew, and Madison Keys is absent, opening paths for others. Yet the top of the draw still features the tour’s elite.

Historical Context and Tournament Significance

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The Mutua Madrid Open, part of the WTA 1000 series, kicks off the European clay swing in style. Its unique high-altitude conditions — around 2,000 feet above sea level — reward big servers and aggressive players, often producing shorter points than slower clay events like Roland Garros.

Past champions include legends like Serena Williams and Petra Kvitova. Sabalenka’s success here mirrors her overall growth from powerful but erratic hitter to consistent Grand Slam contender and world No. 1.

This year’s edition features strong attendance at the Caja Mágica, with fans drawn to the mix of star power and emerging stories. The event also boosts Spanish tennis, with local wild cards and qualifiers gaining valuable experience.

What Lies Ahead

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As the tournament moves into the business end, Sabalenka’s focus remains on one match at a time. A potential semifinal against Swiatek’s conqueror or another top player could test her depth, but her current form suggests few can match her intensity.

Betting markets reflect the reality: Sabalenka opened as a heavy favorite and has shortened further with each win. A title here would further solidify her No. 1 ranking and set a strong tone for the French Open.

For the rest of the field, Madrid offers a chance to build momentum. Clay specialists hope to exploit any dip in Sabalenka’s level, while all eyes remain on whether anyone can halt the Belarusian’s charge.

The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open has already delivered upsets and memorable moments. Yet the narrative centers on Sabalenka’s pursuit of history. With her blend of power, improved consistency and unmistakable presence, the defending champion appears destined for another triumphant run under the Madrid lights.

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As the quarterfinals approach, tennis fans worldwide will watch to see if Sabalenka can complete the three-peat — or if a bold challenger will seize the moment on one of the sport’s most distinctive stages. The clay season is just beginning, but the early favorite has made her statement loud and clear.

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