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Will BTC Keep Plunging Below $65K? Expert Predictions for February 2026 Recovery
Bitcoin has tumbled to its lowest levels since last fall, briefly dipping below $61,000 this week before rebounding slightly to around $64,800 amid a brutal sell-off that has wiped out nearly 50% of its value from October highs. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market cap — now hovering at $1.29 trillion — faces mounting questions: Is this the bottom, or will BTC keep going down as investor panic deepens?
The dramatic plunge, down 32% over the past 12 months and 44% from its $126,296 peak, has triggered widespread deleveraging, ETF outflows and skepticism about crypto’s post-election rally. Yet historical patterns, improving macro signals and technical rebounds suggest the bleeding may soon stop — though analysts warn of more pain before any sustained recovery.
Bitcoin’s brutal week: From $92K dreams to $60K reality
Bitcoin shed nearly 20% in the past seven days alone, smashing through key support at $70,000 and testing November 2024 lows around $60,001. Thursday’s session saw BTC briefly crater below $61,000 — its steepest single-day drop in months — fueled by $3.48 billion in spot ETF outflows since November and liquidations hitting overcrowded long positions.
Major platforms like Bitstamp clocked lows of $70,002 early Thursday, while Coinbase watched BTC flirt with $60K amid risk-off sentiment spilling from stocks. Ether and XRP suffered worse, amplifying the crypto bloodbath as traditional investors soured on digital assets.
Deutsche Bank’s Marion Laboure pinned the rout on fading hype: “Traditional investors are losing interest… Bitcoin isn’t trading on narratives anymore; it’s pure liquidity dynamics.” FG Nexus’s Aja Vinovic added that post-ETF euphoria has given way to balance-sheet pressures, with put options now outpacing calls.
Why Bitcoin is crashing now: ETF flows, macro headwinds
Spot Bitcoin ETFs — once bullish darlings — turned net negative, hemorrhaging $278 million in January alone after $4.57 billion in late-2025 outflows. BlackRock’s IBIT led the exodus, signaling institutional profit-taking after BTC’s 2025 surge.
Macro jitters amplified the slide. Fed hawkishness crushed rate-cut bets, strengthening the dollar and squeezing risk assets. Bitcoin’s correlation with Nasdaq hit 0.85, dragging BTC down as tech stocks wobbled. On-chain data shows new buyer activity stalled since October, with sentiment nearing fear extremes — historically bullish contrarian signals.
Technicals scream oversold: Wedge pattern eyes rebound
Charts paint a mixed but intriguing picture. Bitcoin trades inside an ascending broadening wedge, bouncing from the lower boundary near $60K — a classic reversal setup. Bulls must reclaim $89,241 and $90,000 for bullish confirmation; failure risks $55K tests.
The 50-day moving average sits at $87,974, with the 200-day at $103,031 — both far above spot price, underscoring the correction’s depth. Yet RSI readings below 30 signal extreme oversold conditions, while February’s historical 14.3% average gains favor upside.
Changelly forecasts BTC climbing to $77,862 by month-end (20% from here), with short-term targets at $71,840 Friday and $77K late February. BeInCrypto eyes $98K on wedge breakout, followed by $95K consolidation.
Historical precedent: 30% drops are BTC’s normal
Pullbacks of 30%+ are routine in Bitcoin cycles. Post-2021 and 2017 peaks, BTC endured multiple 30-50% corrections before resuming uptrends. The current 44% retracement mirrors March 2025’s 32.7% dip and January’s 31.7% slide — “normal volatility,” per CoinDesk’s Jacob Joseph.
Santiment data confirms: Extreme fear precedes bounces, with current caution levels priming gradual advances. ETF outflow slowdown — from $3.48B (Nov) to $278M (Jan) — hints at stabilization.
Bull case: ETF rebound, halving tailwinds, macro pivot
Optimists see catalysts ahead. Spot ETF flows could flip positive in February, providing “structural support.” The 2024 halving’s supply shock lingers, with 3.125 BTC block rewards tightening issuance amid rising demand.
Macro tailwinds beckon: Potential Fed cuts, election-cycle liquidity and Trump’s pro-crypto stance (Bitcoin reserve talk) could ignite FOMO. On-chain metrics show long-term holders accumulating, HODL waves strengthening.
Price targets cluster at $90K (near-term resistance), $101K (14% historical February gain) and $126K year-high retest.
Bear case: $55K floor, recession risks loom
Pessimists warn of deeper pain. Failure at $70K invites $55K — 2024 lows — with $44K psychological support. Persistent ETF selling, regulatory clouds (SEC vs. Ripple redux?) and equity contagion threaten further slides.
Deutsche Bank’s Laboure flags “overall negativity” as traditional capital flees. If Nasdaq cracks, BTC’s 0.85 correlation amplifies downside.
Expert predictions: Where BTC heads next
| Analyst/Firm | Short-Term (Feb) | Year-End 2026 | Key Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| BeInCrypto | $98K breakout | $120K+ | ETF inflows |
| Changelly | $77.8K | $95K avg | Technical rebound |
| CoinDesk | Stabilize $80K | Cycle peak | Halving effects |
| Deutsche Bank | $60K risk | Bearish | Macro caution |
February averages 14.3% gains historically; current $64.8K base projects $74K end-month.
What Bitcoin investors should do now
- HODL long-term: Corrections precede bull runs; 2021’s 50% drop yielded 3x gains.
- Dollar-cost average: Buy dips below $65K; avoid FOMO at $90K.
- Watch ETF flows: Inflow reversal signals bottom.
- Monitor Fed: Rate cuts ignite risk-on.
- Risk management: Never invest more than 5-10% portfolio.
Bitcoin’s at a crossroads: capitulation or coil for explosion? History favors the latter, but patience rules. As Vinovic notes, “The bull run narrative evolves — liquidity now drives price.” Tune into macro prints, ETF data and $70K hold for clues. The king of crypto endures — battered, but unbowed.
The Greenbushes lithium mine in the state’s South West generated a $624 million profit for its three joint venture owners, a far cry from its bumper $6 billion profit two years ago.
Pickleball paddle producer Devi Wei has a message for U.S. shoppers.
“Americans will have to pay more,” the Chinese businessman told CNBC at a Beijing trade show last week at the China International Exhibition Center.
Because of the recent swings in oil prices resulting from the Iran war and closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Wei, who founded his own exporting business, Huijin Trade, has had to hike prices on his paddles and pickleballs by as much as 20%, he said.
Wei’s goods are made with polypropylene, a plastic material derived from oil and made in the Middle East, a dominant producer in the global industry. The war in Iran has stalled shipments of oil and its products through the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns among Chinese manufacturers at the trade fair about further disruption across the global supply chain.
“I might have to go even higher,” Wei said. “Maybe double if the Iran war doesn’t stop soon.”
Surging oil prices are filtering into prices of all kinds of products that rely on the commodity for manufacturing.
James Li, who makes scarves and said he sells a third of his inventory to the U.S., has marked up his polyester products by 5%.
“This scarf is 30% polyester,” Li told CNBC from his trade show booth. “We will definitely pass on the extra cost to our customers.”
Wang Mingming, a general manager of toy manufacturer Jinming Gifts, said he is hoarding two months’ worth of the plastic polymer PVC, but isn’t sure he can hold off charging more for his figurines.
“In our industry, these materials are almost irreplaceable,” Wang said. “If oil prices rise any further, we really won’t be able to manage.”
Cameron Johnson, senior partner at Shanghai-based supply chain consultancy Tidalwave Solutions, said he foresees competition for oil-related products among entire sectors if the crisis at the Strait of Hormuz isn’t resolved soon. A prolonged impasse in the critical waterway also raises the possibility of product shortages.
“If this goes on into May, everyone will be in big trouble and there will be triage between industries,” Johnson said, predicting autos and the medical field would be granted higher priority. “There is no visibility when new supply will come.”
Perhaps the biggest worry among China’s manufacturers is what costlier oil will mean for discretionary spending by consumers worldwide.
More money for gas means less for Wei’s pickleballs.
“Ordinary people are getting squeezed the most from the high oil price,” he said. “Their spending power just isn’t what it used to be.”
Shares in Matrix Composites & Engineering rose strongly today but are still slightly below the price at which Advanced Innergy Holdings plans to bid for the Perth company.
The last month, coinciding with the Iran war, was particularly brutal and accounted for a 4% decline. The currency, which touched an all-time low of 95.21/$, had briefly advanced to 93.59/$ in the early hours, its strongest level on Monday. The trading amplitude for the unit was one of the widest Monday.
Intervention from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) in the last 15 minutes of trading lifted the local currency to close at 94.83/$ on the last trading day of the year. It closed at 94.81/$ on Friday.
The rupee was widely expected to strengthen on Monday.
AgenciesRupee Seen Staying at 94-95 per Dollar
This was following Friday’s central bank directives to curb lenders’ open positions in FX to $100 million. However, high dollar demand from oil companies, importers and hedge funds caused the rupee to retrace its steps and trade at record lows, traders said.
“The curbs by RBI created an arbitrage between NDF and onshore rates. With simultaneous buying in the NDF market and selling in the domestic market, along with year-end dollar demand from oil companies and corporates, the rupee came under pressure,” said Anil Bhansali, head of treasury, Finrex Treasury Advisors.
The rupee is expected to remain between 94/$ and 95/$ on April 2, when the market opens after a 2-day holiday.
Currency markets are closed on March 31, April 1, and April 3, making this a short trading week.
The currency opened at 93.59/$ on Monday and depreciated continuously till about 3:15 PM to a low of 95.22/$. At these levels, dollar sales by the RBI helped trim losses, allowing the rupee to close slightly stronger.
“Push for dollars from oil companies, importers, hedge funds and corporates was very high due to sharp rupee appreciation in the morning,” said Kunal Sodhani, head of treasury at Shinhan Bank India.
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Trump said the U.S. was in serious discussions with a “more reasonable regime” to end the war, but repeated his threat to open the Strait of Hormuz or risk U.S. attacks on Iranian oil wells and power plants. Iran described U.S. peace proposals as unrealistic.
Investors have been focused on how oil prices will impact the global economy after they shot up since the start of the war.
“The administration continues to send mixed messages,” said Rick Meckler, partner at Cherry Lane Investments, a family investment office in New Vernon, New Jersey.
“When the messages seem good, to the extent they are believed, it helps the market. If something they say implies a more aggressive approach, the market sells off.”
At the same time the conflict has been escalating. Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi militia entered the war over the weekend. All three of the major indexes started the day higher after logging sharp declines in the previous session. Since the war started, the Dow, the Nasdaq and the small-cap Russell 2000 have all confirmed correction territory, ending 10% lower from their record-high closes.
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 lost 25.52 points, or 0.40%, to end at 6,343.33 points, while the Nasdaq Composite lost 153.16 points, or 0.73%, to 20,795.20. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 53.27 points, or 0.12%, to 45,219.91. Comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell gave some support to stocks. Powell said longer-term inflation expectations appear to be holding despite the current energy shock, and the Fed does not yet need to make a decision on how to react to the latest troubles. Both U.S. crude oil and Brent settled higher.
Money market participants have priced out any easing from the Federal Reserve this year, compared with two cuts expected before the war began, per the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. The S&P 500 energy index was down slightly and technology stocks were among the biggest drag on the S&P 500. On the flip side, the financial index gained after the U.S. Department of Labor issued long-awaited guidelines intended to clarify how trustees can add alternative assets to 401(k) retirement plans.
Shares of asset managers climbed with Blackstone and KKR both higher.
‘Fox Across America’ radio host Jimmy Failla says there’s not enough ‘shame’ depending on cell phones on ‘Kennedy.’
A Chick-fil-A restaurant is offering families free ice cream if they put away their phones for their entire meal.
Complex, an account on X covering culture, posted a photo Sunday showing a sign advertising that the Chick-fil-A Towson Place location has an incentive for families to be phone-free during meals.
“Introducing our Chick-fil-A® Cell Phone Coop Challenge,” the sign read.
SOLO DINING SURGES 52% AS AMERICANS EMBRACE ‘ME-ME-ME ECONOMY’ OVER SHARED MEALS
Teens using their phones. (Matt Cardy / Getty Images)
“Ask a Team Member for a coop, place all phones in the coop, and enjoy your meal together,” the message continued. “After you finished let a Team Member know and everyone at the table will receive a Icedream® Cone as a reward.”
“Grab a coop and take the challenge,” it read.
The Chick-fil-A restaurant in Towson Place, Maryland, also advertised the challenge in a recent Facebook post, writing, “Take the Dine-in Cell Phone Coop Challenge at Chick-fil-A Towson Place. Ask a Team Member for a coop, place all phones in the coop, and enjoy your meal together without distractions. When your table finishes, let a Team Member know and everyone will receive an Icedream Cone as a reward. Are you up for the challenge?”
If families stay off their phones during their meal, they will receive an Icedream® Cone as a reward. ( Felix Hörhager/picture alliance via Getty Images)
A 2023 study found that 68% of households have a person using their phone during a meal with others. It also found that 65% of respondents do not like it, and 42% feel using phones during meals is rude.
Chick-fil-A did not immediately respond to a request for comment from Fox News Digital.
SCHOOL DISTRICT CELLPHONE BANS SPARK DEBATE OVER TECH ADDICTION, HELICOPTER PARENTING
A minor uses their phone in a room. ( / Getty Images)
For more than a decade, Japanese home builders have been tiptoeing into the U.S. housing market with small, discreet acquisitions of private American construction companies. Their quiet era is over.
Japanese builders have announced or closed acquisitions of 23 U.S. single-family home builders since 2020, more than double the number from 2013 to 2019. That doesn’t include the multifamily developers and construction-supply companies they have also bought. By some estimates, Japanese builders are now set to own about 6% of the U.S. home-construction market.
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The Trump administration proposed a regulation on Monday that is intended to open 401(k)s and similar retirement plans to private equity and private credit.
It is a victory for the Wall Street firms that have lobbied to get these higher-cost alternative investments into the $14.2 trillion 401(k) market. But it comes at an inopportune time for the industry, as investors pull money from some private-credit funds.
Copyright ©2026 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8
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