Crypto World
4 Economic Triggers That Could Shake Bitcoin in Days
Bitcoin is entering a pivotal macro week as it hovers near $68,600 on February 16, 2026. After a volatile start to the year, including a sharp retracement from 2025 highs above $126,000, markets remain highly sensitive to US economic data.
Tariff tensions, sticky inflation, and the Federal Reserve’s decision to pause rate cuts have kept risk assets on edge. With US markets closed Monday for Presidents’ Day, liquidity is thinner than usual, a factor that could amplify volatility once major data begins midweek.
US Economic Data Crypto Traders Must Watch This Week
Traders are focused on four key releases: the January FOMC minutes on Wednesday, initial jobless claims on Thursday, and Friday’s Q4 GDP revision alongside December PCE inflation.
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According to CME FedWatch data, markets are pricing just 9.8% odds of a March rate cut, reflecting skepticism that easing is imminent.
In this environment, even modest surprises could determine whether Bitcoin tests $70,000 resistance or revisits the $60,000 support zone.
FOMC Minutes
The release of the January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee)minutes will likely set the week’s tone.
The Fed held rates steady at 3.50%–3.75% during its last meeting, signaling caution amid resilient growth and persistent services inflation.
FOMC minutes on Wednesday will provide deeper insight into policymakers’ internal debates, particularly around inflation risks, labor strength, and tariff-related pressures.
A hawkish tone emphasizing sticky inflation or upside risks could reinforce “higher for longer” expectations. Historically, similar signals have triggered 3–5% Bitcoin pullbacks within 24 hours as Treasury yields rise and liquidity expectations tighten.
Conversely, any language suggesting balanced risks or growing concern over slowing growth could revive rate-cut speculation.
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In holiday-thinned trading conditions, even subtle dovish cues may be enough to push Bitcoin toward $70,000.
Initial Jobless Claims
Thursday’s jobless claims report offers a real-time snapshot of labor market health, a core pillar of the Fed’s dual mandate.
Consensus expects roughly 220,000 new filings for the week ending February 14, down from 227,000 previously.
A reading below 210,000 would reinforce labor resilience and reduce the likelihood of near-term easing. That outcome could pressure Bitcoin 1–3% lower as markets recalibrate rate-cut expectations.
On the other hand, claims above 230,000 would raise concerns about softening employment conditions. In past cycles, weaker labor prints have boosted risk assets on the assumption that the Fed may pivot sooner. Such a scenario could lift Bitcoin 2–4% as easing bets increase.
With BTC consolidating between $68,000 and $69,000, this release may serve as a bridge between Wednesday’s Fed insight and Friday’s inflation data.
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Q4 2025 GDP (Final Revision)
Friday’s final Q4 GDP revision is expected to show +2.5% annualized growth, a significant step down from the initial +4.4% estimate.
A downside surprise below 2.3% would reinforce slowdown narratives and potentially boost Bitcoin 3–6% as markets price in earlier policy relief. Softer consumer spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of GDP, would be closely watched.
However, a print above 2.7% could complicate the outlook. Strong growth may delay easing, reinforcing “higher for longer” expectations and weighing on crypto markets.
Bitcoin remains highly correlated with equities during major macro releases. Strong growth combined with persistent inflation has historically triggered short-term BTC pullbacks.
PCE & Core PCE
The week’s most important catalyst arrives with December’s PCE inflation report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.
Expectations call for +0.3% month-over-month increases in both headline and core PCE, with year-over-year readings around 2.8–2.9%.
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A cooler-than-expected 0.2% MoM print would signal further disinflation progress. That outcome could meaningfully increase the probability of a rate cut and spark a 4–8% Bitcoin rally, potentially pushing prices decisively above $70,000.
But a hotter print above 0.3% would reinforce sticky inflation concerns, likely triggering 3–5% downside pressure as yields climb and easing hopes fade.
Core PCE, which strips out food and energy, will carry particular weight for policymakers and traders alike.
From Fed messaging to labor resilience, growth revisions, and inflation data, each release feeds directly into expectations for 2026 monetary policy.
With Bitcoin stabilizing near $68,600 but still well below its 2025 highs, the market remains acutely sensitive to liquidity signals.
Dovish surprises across the board could reignite risk appetite and drive a breakout toward $70,000 and beyond. Hawkish data, however, may deepen the correction toward $60,000–$65,000.
Regulatory uncertainty around stablecoins could place traditional banks at a greater disadvantage than crypto companies, according to Colin Butler, executive vice president of capital markets at Mega Matrix.
Butler said financial institutions have already invested heavily in digital asset infrastructure but remain unable to deploy it fully while lawmakers debate how stablecoins should be classified. “Their general counsels are telling their boards that you cannot justify the capital expenditure until you know whether stablecoins will be treated as deposits, securities, or a distinct payment instrument,” he told Cointelegraph.
Several major banks have already developed parts of the infrastructure needed to support stablecoins. JPMorgan developed its Onyx blockchain payments network, BNY Mellon launched digital asset custody services, and Citigroup has tested tokenized deposits.
“The infrastructure spend is real, but regulatory ambiguity caps how far those investments can scale because risk and compliance functions will not greenlight full deployment without knowing how the product will be classified,” Butler argued.
On the other hand, crypto firms, which have operated in regulatory gray zones for years, would likely continue doing so. “Banks, by contrast, cannot operate comfortably in that gray area,” he added.
Related: USDC market cap nears record $80B amid ‘capital flight’ in UAE: Analyst
Yield gap could drive deposit migration
Another concern is the growing difference between returns available on stablecoin platforms and those offered by traditional bank accounts. Exchanges often offer between 4% and 5% on stablecoin balances, Butler said, while the average US savings account yields less than 0.5%.
He said history shows depositors move quickly when higher yields become available, pointing to the shift into money market funds in the 1970s. Today, the process could happen even faster, as transferring funds from bank accounts to stablecoins takes only minutes and the yield gap is larger.
Meanwhile, Fabian Dori, chief investment officer at Sygnum, said the competitive gap between banks and crypto platforms is meaningful but not yet critical. He said a large-scale deposit flight is unlikely in the immediate term, as institutions still prioritize trust, regulation and operational resilience.
“But the asymmetry can accelerate migration at the margin, especially among corporates, fintech users, and globally active clients already comfortable moving liquidity across platforms,” Dori said. “Once stablecoins are treated as productive digital cash rather than crypto trading tools, the competitive pressure on bank deposits becomes much more visible,” he added.
Related: Stablecoins could form backbone of global payments in 10 years: Billionaire
Restrictions on yield could push activity offshore
Butler also warned that attempts to restrict stablecoin yield could unintentionally drive activity into less regulated areas. Under current US law, stablecoin issuers are prohibited from paying yield directly to holders. However, exchanges can still offer returns through lending programs, staking or promotional rewards.
If lawmakers impose broader restrictions, capital could shift to alternative structures such as synthetic dollar tokens. Products like Ethena’s USDe generate yield through derivatives markets rather than traditional reserves. These mechanisms can offer returns even if regulated stablecoins cannot.
If that trend accelerates, regulators could face the opposite outcome of what they intend as more capital flows into opaque offshore structures with fewer consumer protections, according to Butler. “Capital doesn’t stop seeking returns,” he said.
Magazine: Bitcoin may take 7 years to upgrade to post-quantum — BIP-360 co-author
Traditional altcoin cycles, once defined by sweeping market rallies known as “altseason,” are giving way to a more concentrated, selective dynamic. Industry veterans argue that an overcrowded token universe and a tightening pool of capital have stripped altcoins of their former momentum, nudging liquidity toward benchmark assets and tokenized real-world assets. In recent discussions, Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner at DWF Labs, highlighted how the market’s attention has shifted away from a broad spectrum of smaller tokens toward a few dominating narratives. He notes that there are now far more tokens than there is money to support them, a situation amplified by exchange-traded products that trap liquidity and redraw investor flows. The upshot is a market where only certain sectors and coins are likely to attract sustained interest.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ether (CRYPTO: ETH) have emerged as the primary anchors for institutional capital, drawing funds away from the speculative segment of the market and toward larger, yield-bearing instruments and tokenized assets. Grachev cited the growing emphasis on these liquids as a hallmark of the post-altseason era, where capital allocators seek reliability and predictable upside rather than chasing broad, hype-driven rallies. The trend is supported by observable shifts in the composition of market capital: inflows into Bitcoin-focused vehicles remain robust while broader altcoin investment faces headwinds from increasingly selective investor appetites. The market’s attention has also narrowed toward tokenized RWAs, which blend traditional asset exposure with blockchain settlement, further diverting funds from a wide array of smaller tokens.
Alongside the shifting narrative, data on the token ecosystem underscored the structural change. The total number of crypto tokens tracked by CoinMarketCap has exploded since 2023, surpassing 37.8 million unique tokens, a figure that speaks to the proliferating tail of the market. Yet, this abundance has not translated into proportional capital support. Grachev warned that the long tail will continue to exist, but mostly as high-risk ventures or casino-style bets, not as a sustainable mass market. “The long tail of tokens will still exist, but will largely function as high-risk venture or casino-style plays. The capital is not going to keep expanding fast enough to support all of it,” he said. The implication is a market with shorter narrative windows, sharper rotations, and less room for projects that depend on hype alone to survive. The era of broad altcoin rallies appears to be behind us, replaced by a more discerning, sector-rotation dynamic that favors selective bets over sweeping uptrends.
Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, has echoed the same sentiment, noting that traditional altcoin cycles are over. In his view, institutional participants are prioritizing yield-bearing digital instruments and crypto assets that capture revenue, rather than pursuing mass altcoin rallies. This shift aligns with a broader industry move toward more tangible, revenue-linked crypto exposures, rather than speculative momentum plays. The implications extend beyond market sentiment; the shift in money flow also affects liquidity, price discovery, and the speed at which narratives can circle through the market. While the market remains capable of isolated surges, the likelihood of a renewed, broad altseason is diminished as capital coalesces around fewer, higher-conviction opportunities. A related analysis suggested that Bitcoin leads while altcoin indicators have dipped to intriguing lows, a sign that the market is rethinking risk allocations inside the crypto space.
From a market-cap perspective, the altcoin sector has faced a pronounced downshift since the October 2025 market crash. Data from market participants show that roughly 38% of altcoins are near all-time lows, a statistic highlighted by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost. The concern is not just price; liquidity is also becoming more diluted as the number of projects multiplies. The result is a market where capital moves more quickly and more selectively, with fewer opportunities for broad-based gains across the broader altcoin universe. In the 13 months leading up to this point, more than $209 billion exited the altcoin market, underscoring how viral hype has given way to caution and risk management. The altcoin market cap briefly peaked at around $1.19 trillion in October 2025 but was pulled down to roughly $719 billion as broader market dynamics shifted—and the subsequent lull persisted as investors rotated toward BTC, ETH, and RWAs.
Against this backdrop, the flow of funds into Bitcoin exchange-traded products has remained relatively sturdy. Recent data from Farside Investors indicate five consecutive days of positive inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, signaling that institutional players continue to allocate to the flagship asset. In contrast, altcoin-focused ETFs have continued to bleed assets, highlighting the narrowing appetite for the broader altcoin cohort. The diverging flows reinforce the narrative that the market is stepping back from mass altcoin rallies and moving toward more curated exposure. For a sense of the broader conversation around altseason, readers can revisit analyses that argue traditional altcoin cycles are over and that non-traditional cycles may define the next phase of crypto market dynamics.
The altcoin market cap narrative and the new market regime
In the current regime, liquidity is not expanding in tandem with the number of available tokens. The market’s attention is anchored by Bitcoin and Ether, while the token world continues to generate substantial activity but with a much smaller marginal impact on overall market momentum. The intramarket debate now centers on whether any altcoin cohort can sustain meaningful upside absent a broader capital influx or whether the sector will rely on more isolated catalysts—such as yield opportunities, integrations with real-world assets, or sector-specific partnerships—to spark selective rallies.
As observers look ahead, the market context remains influenced by ETF flows, regulatory developments, and macro risk sentiment. The data points to a crypto market that has grown more sophisticated in its allocation choices, with capital seeking not just upside but also durability and revenue potential. The narrative shift also speaks to a broader macro-financial alignment: institutions are seeking assets that can demonstrate cash flows or language of utility, rather than chasing momentum in a crowded field of tokens with uneven liquidity and uncertain fundamentals. The overall tone is pragmatic: a market that rewards depth, credibility, and clear use-case rather than sheer breadth of exposure.
Why it matters
For traders and investors, the evolving dynamics imply a more selective approach to risk, with a premium placed on assets that deliver measurable revenue streams or tangible value. The shift away from broad altseason rallies reduces the likelihood of sudden, market-wide surges in the altcoin space and increases the importance of due diligence, sector differentiation, and liquidity depth. Builders and ecosystem participants should note that capital may flow more quickly into well-defined sectors or tokens with established use cases, while overhyped, underfunded projects may struggle to survive in a tightened funding environment. Regulators and investors alike are watching how the industry balances innovation with risk management as the market continues to mature and differentiate among asset classes.
For market makers and liquidity providers, the new regime emphasizes selectivity, risk controls, and the ability to pivot quickly between narratives as money moves in and out of different sectors. Tokenized RWAs, in particular, could attract longer-horizon capital given their connection to traditional asset performance, providing a potential counterweight to the volatility of a smaller-token ecosystem. The broader takeaway is a crypto landscape that rewards clarity of value, sustainable fundamentals, and efficient liquidity rather than breadth for breadth’s sake.
What to watch next
- Track Bitcoin ETF inflows vs. altcoin ETF outflows over the next quarter to gauge whether the capital rotation persists.
- Monitor altcoin market-cap levels and liquidity metrics, especially for coins near all-time lows, for signs of a potential acceleration or further weakness.
- Observe regulatory developments around tokenized real-world assets and their impact on institutional appetite for RWAs.
- Pay attention to narrative shifts in sector-specific communities and any unexpected catalysts (partnerships, product launches, or major listings) that could trigger selective rotations.
Sources & verification
- Interviews and market commentary on the shift away from traditional altcoin cycles and the role of token proliferation (analysts’ perspectives on oversupply and altseason disruption).
- Data and quotes related to Bitcoin ETF inflows and altcoin ETF outflows from Farside Investors.
- CryptoQuant analysis on the share of altcoins near all-time lows and liquidity considerations.
- CoinMarketCap metrics on the number of tracked tokens and the altseason index reference for Bitcoin-led markets.
Market reaction and key details
As institutions recalibrate their crypto exposure, the market is witnessing a move toward high-conviction bets within a constrained universe. The concentration of capital on BTC, ETH, and tokenized real-world assets reflects a maturation of the asset class, with participants seeking more durable value propositions. The depreciation in altcoin market cap and the outflows from altcoin ETFs underscore a shift in how capital measures risk and reward in a space that continues to evolve rapidly. The long tail of tokens remains, but it is increasingly framed as speculative exposure rather than a driver of broad market momentum. The key takeaway is a crypto market that prizes selectivity and fundamentals over breadth and hype, with liquidity and capital flows aligning to those principles.
Why it matters (cont.)
Beyond the trading desks, this shift has implications for developers, exchanges, and users who rely on a vibrant altcoin ecosystem for innovation and diversification. With fewer tokens receiving sustained funding, the emphasis shifts to projects that demonstrate real value and scalable use cases. For exchanges, the changing liquidity landscape may drive more emphasis on robust market-making, improved trading mechanics, and clearer product differentiation. For users, the evolving dynamics suggest a more curated landscape where due diligence and fundamental research become even more critical to navigate a market that rewards clarity of purpose over sheer token count.
What to watch next (continued)
- Regulatory clarity around tokenized assets and exchange-traded products could influence how institutions allocate capital in the near term.
- Any shifts in macro risk sentiment or liquidity conditions that might reopen doors for broader altseason-like activity, even on a selective basis.
- New sector-specific catalysts, such as major partnerships or integrations, that could lift compromised altcoins with strong fundamentals.
Sources & verification
- Analysts discussing oversupply and altcoin-season dynamics in dedicated Cointelegraph articles linked in the original report.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan’s commentary on evolving cycles and institutional yield-driven demand, with related references.
- CryptoQuant data cited on the percentage of altcoins near all-time lows and liquidity concerns.
- Farside Investors’ data on Bitcoin ETF inflows and altcoin ETF outflows.
- CoinMarketCap metrics on the number of tokens tracked and the altcoin-season index for cross-checking market structure.
Market reaction and key details
Market participants should remain attentive to the evolving balance between liquidity, token proliferation, and the demand for durable exposures. The shift toward BTC, ETH, and RWAs suggests institutions are prioritizing assets with clearer revenue potential and regulatory relevance. In this environment, strategic players may find opportunity not in chasing broad altcoin rallies but in identifying sectors or tokens with demonstrable use cases, strong liquidity, and intrinsic value. The market’s path forward will likely hinge on how capital allocators weigh risk against reward in a landscape that rewards precision and credible narratives over sheer breadth.
Large Bitcoin holders have started accumulating again as the cryptocurrency trades near the $71,000 level, according to new data from crypto analytics firm Santiment.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitcoin whales holding 10–10,000 BTC have resumed accumulation as the price stabilizes near $71,000.
- These large wallets now control about 68.17% of Bitcoin’s total supply, signaling renewed confidence among major holders.
- Analysts warn a confirmed market bottom may depend on retail investors beginning to sell rather than continue buying.
The platform reported that wallets holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin have increased their share of the total supply over the past week, signaling renewed confidence among major investors.
These wallets now control about 68.17% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply, up slightly from 68.07% seven days earlier.
Bitcoin Whale Accumulation Signals ‘Positive Reversal’: Santiment
Santiment described the shift as a “positive reversal,” suggesting that larger holders may be positioning for a potential rebound.
The accumulation trend comes as Bitcoin stabilizes near $71,000 following recent volatility in the broader crypto market.
Bitcoin was trading around $71,350 at the time of publication, up roughly 6% over the past week and more than 7% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Analysts are closely watching the behavior of both large holders and retail investors for signals about where the market could move next.
Santiment noted that Bitcoin has historically found local bottoms when coins flow from smaller retail wallets to larger long-term holders.
— Santiment (@santimentfeed) March 14, 2026
Based on available tracked wallets, the percentage of Bitcoin on exchanges has dropped to its lowest level since November, 2017. In the over eight years since, it's fair to say that quite a bit has changed in both crypto and the world. pic.twitter.com/Sb9psThlvW
“Ideally, we want to see small wallets drop while this group rises,” Santiment said, referring to the transfer of coins from short-term traders to larger, more patient investors.
However, the firm warned that the market may still face uncertainty if retail enthusiasm continues.
Historically, Bitcoin tends to bottom when retail investors become pessimistic and start selling, not when optimism remains widespread.
Sentiment indicators reflect that mixed outlook. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index remained in the “Extreme Fear” category at 16 on Sunday, showing that many investors are still cautious despite the recent price recovery.
The latest accumulation trend follows a period of heavy selling earlier in March.
On March 6, Santiment reported that large Bitcoin holders had sold about 66% of the BTC they accumulated between Feb. 23 and March 3 as prices surged past $70,000 and briefly touched $74,000.
Bitcoin May Still Be in Bear Market Phase: Willy Woo
Some analysts remain cautious about declaring a definitive market bottom.
Onchain analyst Willy Woo recently argued that Bitcoin may still be in the middle of a longer bear-market phase when viewed through the lens of long-term liquidity cycles.
As reported, Bitcoin’s price is showing signs of stabilizing near the $70,000 level as fears of a broader conflict involving Iran begin to ease.
The recovery follows a sharp multi-week selloff that coincided with rising oil prices and worsening macro sentiment, which had pushed Bitcoin down toward the $63,000–$66,000 range during the peak of geopolitical tensions.
Markets have started to recover as energy prices cooled after comments suggesting the conflict could de-escalate. Risk assets responded quickly, with the S&P 500 gaining while Bitcoin rose about 4% on the daily chart.
Meanwhile, institutional flows appear to be strengthening. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds recorded their first five-day inflow streak of 2026 this week, attracting about $767 million in fresh capital.
The post Large Bitcoin Wallets Resume Accumulation as BTC Holds $71K: Santiment appeared first on Cryptonews.
Traditional altcoin cycles, which featured broad market rallies called “altseason,” are now a relic of the past as new crypto market dynamics set in, according to Andrei Grachev, Managing Partner of DWF Labs, a crypto market maker and investment firm.
Too many tokens competing for limited capital and mindshare, a smaller number of market participants, and crypto exchange-traded funds (ETFs) altering market dynamics by trapping liquidity are driving factors of the disruption, Grachev told Cointelegraph.
An institutional focus on large-cap digital assets like Bitcoin (BTC), Ether (ETH) and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) is also diverting capital and attention away from altcoins, he said.
“The long tail of tokens will still exist, but will largely function as high-risk venture or casino-style plays. The capital is not going to keep expanding fast enough to support all of it,” Grachev said. He added:
“That means shorter narrative windows, more violent rotations, and less room for weak projects to survive on hype alone. The market is moving away from broad altcoin rallies and toward more selective moves in specific sectors.”
Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer at investment firm Bitwise, also said traditional altcoin cycles are over, and that institutional investors are focused on yield-bearing digital instruments or crypto assets that capture revenue.
Related: Bitcoin leads, altcoin indicators drop to intriguing lows: Time for an altseason?
The altcoin market cap has taken a beating since the October 2025 market crash
38% of altcoins are near all-time lows, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, who said this is worse than the post-FTX market crash.
“Liquidity is becoming increasingly diluted by the growing number of projects and tokens entering the market,” he told Cointelegraph.
Over $209 billion has exited the altcoin market over the last 13 months. The altcoin market cap briefly tapped a high of $1.19 trillion in October 2025, before the market crash dragged it back down to about $719 billion.
Meanwhile, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs remain strong, with five days of positive inflows, according to data from fund manager Farside Investors, while altcoin ETFs continue to experience outflows.
Magazine: Altcoin season 2025 is almost here… but the rules have changed
While the DC Blockchain Summit proceeds in Washington, the premier Dubai crypto conference, Token2049, has had to reschedule, a casualty of the escalating Iran War.
The divergence is stark: while one jurisdiction debates stablecoin legislation, the other is dodging missile debris.
Dubai Collapse: What the War Did to the Middle East Crypto Circuit
It appears that crypto events in the Gulf have effectively frozen. According to reporting from the Wall Street Journal on March 13, Dubai’s flagship crypto conference, Token2049, was scrapped entirely as regional tensions spiked.
According to WSJ’s reportage, organizers cited “uninsurable physical risk” following strikes near key logistics hubs.
However, an announcement today by the organizers suggests Token2049 Dubai will be rescheduled to April 21-22. Registered ticket holders don’t need to take any further action.
For years, Dubai positioned itself as the neutral, regulation-light sanctuary for digital assets. That thesis is currently suspended.
While energy markets react to oil surging past $100, the liquidity that fuels the Gulf’s crypto ecosystem is pausing.
Venture firms are grounded. The hub status is intact in theory, but operationally paralyzed in practice.
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DC Holds: The Regulatory Advocacy Machine Keeps Running
In stark contrast, the Digital Chamber is moving forward with its mid-March summit in Washington, D.C.
The event is set to feature SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and key congressional figures, focusing on the very operational clarity the Middle East currently lacks. The agenda has shifted from defensive lobbying to proactive structural design.
The summit serves as the physical staging ground for the recently signed SEC-CFTC coordination deal, a framework that requires industry feedback to function.
By maintaining the schedule, Washington is broadcasting that its regulatory apparatus is insulated from the chaos abroad. The policy machine is not just running; it is accelerating while competitors stall.
What the Postponement in Dubai Implies About the Crypto Global Map
The trade has flipped. For the last cycle, the “regulatory risk” was in the U.S. and the “growth opportunity” was in Dubai. The Iran conflict has inverted that risk premium overnight.
Institutional capital abhors physical insecurity even more than it dislikes regulatory red tape.
JPMorgan analysts noted a divergence in Bitcoin and Gold ETFs recently, where capital has been leaving gold and flowing into Bitcoin funds. If the Middle East cannot guarantee the physical safety of the dealmakers, the liquidity will route back to New York and London.
Bitcoin vs gold ETF flows diverge
@jpmorgan analysts say since the Iran war:
• Largest gold ETF GLD saw 2.7% of AUM outflows
• Largest bitcoin ETF IBIT saw 1.5% of AUM inflows
The analysts also noted signs of bitcoin volatility compressing as institutional ownership… pic.twitter.com/oLvxrT83PK— Yogita Khatri (@Yogita_Khatri5) March 12, 2026
Washington is suddenly the stable option. The DC Blockchain Summit represents a jurisdiction where the risks are legal and bureaucratic, not kinetic.
Investors are pricing in the reality that while U.S. regulation is under strenuous debate, the grid stays on and the ports remain open.
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What to Watch Next
Watch the legislative output from the Digital Chamber’s sessions. If specific language regarding the CLARITY Act emerges from the summit, it confirms the U.S. is using this window to cement its lead.
𝐈𝐭'𝐬 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐢𝐧𝐠. — Chiliz – The Sports Blockchain (@Chiliz) March 12, 2026
Chiliz is the main sponsor of the @DigitalChamber Blockchain Summit in Washington, DC. https://t.co/kb7mQewE3A pic.twitter.com/EaBTxjpRK7
Monitor the Dubai organizers for rescheduling dates. A push to Q4 2026 suggests they see the conflict as a long-term disruption, further damaging Q2 capital flow.
Finally, watch for Senate sponsors joining crypto bills post-summit. If political capital aligns with the industry’s flight to safety, the U.S. regulatory moat will be wide.
The post DC Blockchain Summit Pushes On as Dubai Crypto Events Fall to Iran War appeared first on Cryptonews.
Key Takeaways
- BTC experienced an initial 8.5% decline at the onset of U.S.-Iran hostilities but has recovered approximately 11% from its nadir.
- Successive conflict escalations have prompted temporary selloffs, yet purchasing activity emerges at progressively elevated price points.
- Bitcoin’s performance has surpassed both gold and the S&P 500 during the identical fourteen-day timeframe.
- Major Bitcoin holders (whales) have resumed accumulation around the $71,000 mark, now possessing 68.17% of circulating supply.
- Blockchain analytics indicate minimal selling pressure between present levels and approximately $82,000.
Bitcoin’s current market valuation stands at $71,500.
Hostilities between the U.S. and Iran commenced on Saturday, February 28. As the sole major trading market operating that day, Bitcoin experienced an 8.5% correction down to $64,000—marking its cycle bottom.
Fast forward fourteen days, and the landscape has transformed considerably.
BTC has surged approximately 11% from that trough, currently exchanging hands near $71,500. During this identical period, gold has exhibited extreme volatility, the S&P 500 has declined, and Asian stock markets endured their most severe weekly losses since 2020. Only crude oil—surging over 40%—and the greenback have exceeded Bitcoin’s gains. Both assets benefit directly from wartime conditions.
Progressive Support Levels Following Each Dip
Each military escalation since late February has initiated a Bitcoin price retreat. However, purchasing power has consistently materialized at increasingly higher thresholds.
Following Iran’s counter-strike missile barrage on March 2, BTC stabilized at $66,000. After seven consecutive days of sustained military operations on March 7, the floor elevated to $68,000. In response to commercial tanker incidents on March 12, Bitcoin maintained $69,400. Post-Kharg Island offensive on March 14, support crystallized at $70,596.
This pattern reveals ascending support increments of approximately $1,000–$2,000 following each geopolitical development.
Simultaneously, Bitcoin has encountered resistance near the $73,000–$74,000 zone on four separate occasions. This upper boundary remains intact. Market dynamics suggest an impending resolution—either BTC penetrates the $74,000 threshold, or intensified conflict finally overwhelms demand.
Earlier in 2026, a rapid liquidation cascade eliminated $2.5 billion in leveraged positions during a single weekend session, forcing Bitcoin down to $77,000. That purge appears to have eliminated excessive leverage, creating a market structure better equipped to withstand repeated conflict-related news without comparable disruption.
Whale Accumulation Pattern Emerges, Blockchain Metrics Suggest $82K Target
Analytics from cryptocurrency intelligence platform Santiment reveal substantial Bitcoin wallets—those containing 10 to 10,000 BTC—have reinitiated accumulation strategies around $71,000.
These addresses now command 68.17% of Bitcoin’s aggregate supply, increasing from 68.07% seven days prior. Santiment characterized this movement as a “positive reversal.” The analytics firm monitors retail investor behavior, as historical patterns indicate their capitulation often coincides with cyclical bottoms.
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered 16 on Sunday—deep within “Extreme Fear” territory.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their inaugural five-consecutive-day inflow sequence of 2026 this week, attracting approximately $767 million in fresh capital.
Blockchain analyst Ali Martinez, referencing the UTXO Realized Price Distribution framework, identified minimal resistance between current valuations and approximately $82,045. The $74,000 rejection area, he observed, demonstrates sparse investor cost-basis density, implying it may prove less formidable than technical charts suggest.
The subsequent major support beneath current trading ranges appears around $66,898.
Bitcoin has appreciated 7.55% across the trailing 30-day period. BTC presently trades at $71,500.
Crypto World
Solana Foundation President Lily Liu: DeFi Is What Gives Blockchain Its True Economic Purpose
TLDR:
- Lily Liu says DeFi is the primary economic engine that gives non-Bitcoin blockchains a reason to exist.
- Liu draws on ancient and modern history to argue no vision reaches scale without a strong economic engine.
- Networks must be neutral, global, and performant to deliver open financial access to 5.5 billion users.
- Liu separates corporate blockchain infrastructure from open systems, calling the divide philosophical, not technical.
Solana Foundation President Lily Liu has made a bold case for decentralized finance as the backbone of every blockchain network.
In a recent post, Liu argued that DeFi is not a standalone application category within the crypto space. Instead, she positioned it as the primary economic engine that gives non-Bitcoin blockchains their reason to exist.
Her statement has drawn attention across the industry for its direct framing of blockchain’s core purpose and long-term direction.
Liu Ties Blockchain’s Future to Economic Strength and Open Access
Liu opened her argument by revisiting the original vision behind blockchain technology. That vision has carried several names over the years.
She wrote that terms like “open finance, decentralized finance, internet of money, tcp/ip for money” all point to the same goal. The aim has always been moving financial infrastructure from analog to digital for 5.5 billion internet users.
She anchored her position in historical patterns from both ancient and modern periods. No major vision, she argued, has reached scale without a strong economic engine driving it.
“Look around in history both ancient and modern,” Liu wrote, “and there is not a single vision that has reached scale without an economic engine underwriting it.”
Ancient empires underwrote major religions, and successful city-states built economies before extending influence outward.
Liu was direct in connecting that history to blockchain ecosystems today. She stated that “the path to self-sovereignty is based on a strong and differentiated economy.”
For her, DeFi represents that differentiated economy. It gives non-Bitcoin networks a real and defensible reason to grow beyond speculation.
For blockchain to reach 5.5 billion users, Liu added that networks must be “neutral, global, and performant.” They must also remain committed to open systems that protect self-sovereignty at every layer.
Economic strength matters, but structural openness must accompany it. Together, those qualities define what a legitimate blockchain network looks like.
Corpo Infra Versus Open Systems: A Fundamental Divide
Liu also drew a clear distinction between corporate blockchain infrastructure and genuinely open systems. She acknowledged that corporate infrastructure benefits from significant distribution at launch.
However, she argued it “ultimately serves the same ownership structures and private interests that characterize finance today.” That characteristic separates it from blockchain’s founding mission.
Liu was careful not to dismiss corporate infrastructure entirely. She noted these projects “may have their role” and can “certainly creating value for their owners.”
Still, she was firm that they should not be treated as legitimate inheritors of blockchain’s original ethos. That distinction, for her, carries real weight across the entire industry.
She described blockchain’s true ethos as “self sovereignty, open access, radically equal opportunity served to the broadest set of humanity reachable in an instant.” Those principles, she argued, are incompatible with private ownership structures.
Any infrastructure that concentrates control or restricts access contradicts that original commitment. The divide between open systems and corporate infrastructure is, in her view, philosophical rather than technical.
Her framework places DeFi at the center of how blockchain fulfills its original promise. Networks that remain neutral and open are better positioned to carry that mission forward at scale.
Those who prioritize private interests instead risk becoming mirrors of the very financial systems blockchain set out to transform.
Crypto World
Solana (SOL) Flashes First Bullish Signal in Two Months While Grayscale Eyes Opportunity
TLDR
- The SuperTrend indicator for Solana turned bullish on March 13, marking the first positive signal since early January.
- The asset has declined approximately 67% from its September 2025 all-time high, currently trading around $88–89.
- Broader weekly technical metrics remain negative, with 15 out of 17 indicators showing sell signals.
- Grayscale’s research division highlighted SOL as an attractive opportunity at current valuation levels.
- Total cumulative inflows into Solana Spot ETFs have reached $961–$968 million, though weekly momentum has decelerated significantly.
Solana (SOL) has generated its first positive technical indicator reading in approximately two months, despite the overall chart structure continuing to show bearish characteristics. This development has captured the interest of both market analysts and institutional observers.
Following a peak above $240 in late 2025, SOL commenced a prolonged downward trajectory. The cryptocurrency breached successive support zones before establishing a base in the $67–$80 zone during early 2026.
Throughout the last four weeks, Solana has consolidated within a $76 to $90 range. The token briefly exceeded $90 on two occasions in March, with the most recent push aligning with the SuperTrend buy signal appearing on the daily timeframe.
Understanding the SuperTrend Signal
The SuperTrend is a momentum-based technical indicator that determines trend direction by analyzing price action and volatility metrics. Crypto analyst Ali Martinez identified the bullish crossover on March 13 through X.
For the first time since early January, the SuperTrend indicator has turned bullish on Solana $SOL. pic.twitter.com/oCv8A6R93r
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) March 13, 2026
This marks the first time the indicator has shown a bullish configuration since the beginning of January. A bearish signal emerged in early February, coinciding with SOL’s descent to $67.
While the signal suggests potential near-term upward momentum, it doesn’t necessarily confirm a long-term trend reversal. The indicator is susceptible to false readings, and the overall technical landscape presents a more complex scenario.
$SOL/monthly
Textbook Cup and Handle pattern on #Solana 📈
Nothing complicated here — just follow basic TA. The pattern is clear, the setup is bullish.
The only question is whether you have the faith to act on it 💭 pic.twitter.com/vnNEAp1bzy
— Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) March 13, 2026
Weekly chart analysis on TradingView reveals 15 indicators generating sell signals versus only 2 buy signals. All significant moving averages remain positioned above current price levels. The EMA10 stands at $98.47, the SMA200 at $103.70, and the EMA200 at $119.62 — each indicating downward pressure.
The Relative Strength Index reads 32.34, nearing but not yet entering oversold conditions. The MACD displays a negative reading of -23.70.
Technical experts suggest SOL would need to recover above the SMA200 level of $103.70 at minimum to signal a meaningful structural change.
Institutional Perspective from Grayscale
On March 13, Grayscale’s Head of Research Zach Pandl released a comprehensive six-point analysis supporting investment in SOL, highlighting the approximately 67% decline from September 2025 peaks as an attractive accumulation zone.
Grayscale has more than a few reasons why we’re so optimistic about @solana‘s future.
1️⃣ Leader in users, transactions & fees
2️⃣ Positioned for growth amid regulatory clarity
3️⃣ Staking rewards for network participation
4️⃣ ~67% below Sept 2025 highs
5️⃣ Strong network effects
6️⃣… pic.twitter.com/TAO08npACg— Grayscale (@Grayscale) March 13, 2026
Pandl emphasized Solana’s dominant position in user activity, transaction volume, and fee generation among smart contract platforms throughout the previous year. He also noted evolving regulatory frameworks for stablecoins and asset tokenization as favorable catalysts.
Daily inflows into Solana Spot ETFs reached $7.60 million on March 13, entirely attributable to Bitwise’s BSOL product. Aggregate net inflows across all listed Solana ETF products currently range between $961 and $968 million, with combined net assets totaling approximately $824–$855 million.
However, weekly ETF inflow momentum has experienced a substantial decline. Total weekly inflows registered just $3.10 million — representing an 83% decrease compared to the previous week.
SOL currently changes hands at approximately $88.95, showing a 2.8% increase over the last 24 hours and an 11.15% gain across the past 30 days. The cryptocurrency maintains a total market capitalization of roughly $54.74 billion, securing the seventh position among all digital assets.
TLDR:
- Pi Network launched its Token Launchpad MVP on Testnet, requiring projects to have working apps before issuing tokens.
- Protocol 20 upgrade gives the Pi blockchain the technical foundation needed to support smart contract functionality.
- The first KYC validator reward round distributed Pi at 0.0504 Pi per validation, 21 times the base mining rate.
- Kraken has officially integrated Pi Network after passing the platform’s required KYB verification process for exchanges.
Pi Network celebrated its seventh official anniversary on Pi Day 2026 with a broad set of ecosystem releases. The announcements covered infrastructure upgrades, token launch capabilities, exchange listings, and validator rewards.
These updates expand how Pioneers and developers can contribute to and participate in the network. The releases also introduced a Pi Day Utility Challenge, encouraging community engagement across newly available features.
Together, they mark continued progress toward a utility-driven and widely accessible cryptocurrency platform.
Token Launchpad and Protocol Upgrades Advance the Ecosystem
The Pi Launchpad MVP has launched on Testnet, introducing a structured mechanism for ecosystem token issuance.
Projects using the platform must have working applications before launching tokens, ensuring immediate utility at launch.
Pi proceeds from each token launch flow into liquidity pools rather than going to the issuing project directly. This approach supports healthy decentralized exchange activity within the Pi ecosystem.
All major Pi nodes have been upgraded to version 20.2, now supporting protocol 20. This upgrade provides the technical foundation required to enable smart contract capabilities on the blockchain.
Smart contract categories, including subscriptions, escrow, and NFT-related contracts, will be prioritized based on utility-driven product needs. Several contracts are currently undergoing external audits before progressing to Testnet deployment.
PiCoreTeam announced: “Happy Pi Day 2026, Pi Network’s 7th official anniversary! Today’s releases introduce new ecosystem capabilities and expand how Pioneers can build, participate, and engage with Pi.”
Updates to the Pi Wallet and Pi SDK will also follow to support the new smart contract functionality. These changes aim to ensure seamless integration between on-chain logic and user-facing applications.
Mainnet deployment of smart contracts will occur after successful Testnet testing and community review. The pace of rollout will reflect real utility needs arising from the ecosystem.
Second Migrations, Validator Rewards, and Kraken Listing Expand Participation
Second migrations have begun, allowing previously migrated Pioneers to bring additional Pi balances to Mainnet. Before migrating, Pioneers must complete two-factor authentication through Step 5 of the Mainnet Checklist.
This requirement exists because blockchain transactions are permanent and cannot be reversed. Referral mining bonuses tied to KYC-verified team members will also be included in second migrations.
Pi distributed the first round of KYC validator rewards, covering contributions recorded through March 5, 2026. The reward pool contained 16,568,774 Pi from migrated Pioneers, later supplemented by 10 million Pi from the Pi Foundation.
Dividing the total pool across 526,970,631 successful validations produced a price of approximately 0.0504 Pi per validation. That rate is 21 times the current base mining rate, reflecting the scale of the validation work done.
Over 1,094,680 human validators contributed to the KYC process, completing more than half a billion tasks collectively.
The Pi Foundation supplemented this round to account for early validations used to train the validator workforce.
Future reward rounds may incorporate additional criteria around validator accuracy and consistency. New Pi entering the pool and new validations will be factored into subsequent distributions.
Centralized exchange Kraken has integrated support for Pi following the network’s KYB verification process for external services.
This listing broadens access to Pi and connects the network with a wider segment of the crypto market. Third-party platforms that pass Pi’s verification requirements may also integrate in the future. This external connectivity supports the network’s goal of broader adoption.
Pi App Studio Reaches Mainnet and Launches Utility Challenge
Pi App Studio now supports Mainnet apps and live Pi payment integration for select qualifying applications. Four apps have been invited to transition from Testnet to Mainnet based on quality, utility, and ecosystem compliance.
Creators whose apps meet eligibility criteria can now receive real Pi payments directly through the blockchain. This shift moves App Studio from experimentation toward generating sustainable creator income.
Persistent payment integration is also now available within App Studio on both Testnet and Mainnet. Previously, in-app purchases applied only during a single active session and expired when the user exited.
Now, purchases such as premium access or feature unlocks carry over across multiple future sessions. This enables creators to build longer-lasting, more engaging application experiences for Pioneers.
The Pi Day Utility Challenge launched alongside these releases, offering Pioneers a structured way to explore new features. The checklist guides users through ecosystem tools, newly released products, and Pi utility applications.
Completing all tasks earns a Pi Day badge visible on Pi Chats and Pi Social Profiles. This gamified approach encourages hands-on discovery of the ecosystem’s growing range of utilities.
The Open Network Anniversary raffle, which began with the community badge initiative, concluded on March 14. A total of 150 winners will be selected randomly and contacted through the official Pi support email.
Pioneers are advised to verify sender addresses carefully and consult the Pi Safety Center to avoid scams. Official communications will come only through verified Pi Network channels.
Key Takeaways
- Reports suggest Coinbase may be pursuing a significant investment stake in Bybit, a leading offshore cryptocurrency exchange.
- No official confirmation has been issued by Coinbase or Bybit regarding the potential transaction.
- Market analysts estimate Bybit’s valuation at approximately $25 billion, drawing parallels to the recent ICE-OKX transaction.
- COIN shares finished trading at $195.53, marking a 1.18% increase, with monthly gains approaching 20%.
- A potential partnership could provide Bybit with regulatory access to operate within the United States market.
According to a social media post from Wu Blockchain on X, Coinbase is allegedly engaged in investment discussions with Dubai-headquartered Bybit. Both parties have remained silent on confirming or denying these reports.
Should this transaction materialize, it would potentially offer Bybit a compliant entry point into the US cryptocurrency market, where regulatory hurdles have previously limited its operations.
Bybit ranks among the world’s top cryptocurrency trading platforms by volume. Breaking into the American market independently would require navigating complex compliance frameworks, making Coinbase’s regulatory expertise particularly valuable.
Early reports indicate Bybit carries an estimated valuation near $25 billion. This assessment draws from recent market comparisons, particularly the ICE backing of OKX at comparable valuations.
Last year, Coinbase demonstrated its appetite for substantial acquisitions by purchasing Deribit for $2.9 billion, signaling continued expansion ambitions.
It’s worth highlighting that Coinbase maintains strong credentials in US regulatory compliance, including proper licensing and adherence to consumer protection protocols.
COIN Shares Rise on Unconfirmed Reports
COIN stock concluded the trading session at $195.53 when speculation first emerged, representing a 1.18% uptick. The monthly performance shows impressive gains approaching 20%.
This monthly momentum deserves attention, particularly since certain market analysts had previously projected the stock could decline toward $100.
The positive movement wasn’t isolated to Coinbase — cryptocurrency-related equities like MSTR, MARA, and CRCL similarly posted increases during the same trading period, despite broader market weakness.
Star Xu, founder of OKX, shared his perspective on the rumored transaction via X: “If it’s true, good for the industry. Higher standards, less regulatory arbitrage.”
Potential Implications of a Coinbase-Bybit Partnership
The United States is currently navigating an evolving regulatory landscape for cryptocurrency assets. Although the CLARITY Act has experienced repeated postponements, progress continues toward establishing comprehensive digital asset guidelines.
With improved regulatory clarity, Bybit could legitimately expand its US operations — though this would require appropriate partnerships or compliance infrastructure.
Both the SEC and CFTC have collaborated on developing this framework, establishing clearer requirements for international exchanges seeking US market access.
A Bybit operation facilitated through Coinbase would circumvent numerous regulatory obstacles by utilizing Coinbase’s pre-existing relationships with US authorities.
Currently, neither organization has provided a projected timeline or disclosed official deal terms.
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