Oil futures surged above $110 a barrel Monday as escalating tensions in the Middle East rattled global markets, sending Asian stocks sharply lower, with all of the region’s markets opening deep in the red, even as bitcoin held steady near $67,000.

West Texas Intermediate crude jumped roughly 17% in 24 hours. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell more than 6% and South Korea’s Kospi dropped about 8% as traders repriced energy costs across import-dependent economies.

The rally centers on the risk that fighting could restrict oil flows near the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint through which roughly 20% of global crude supply passes daily. Prediction markets on Polymarket assign a 76% probability that crude reaches $120 by the end of March.

Bitcoin traded around $67,000 with little sign of panic selling. Ether and solana posted modest gains, suggesting crypto markets have so far treated the spike as an energy-specific shock rather than a broad risk-off event.

Not all traders are convinced the move has legs. Funding rates on oil perpetual futures turned negative on Hyperliquid, indicating significant positioning for a pullback even as spot prices climb.

Markets still see little chance of an imminent rate cut.

Contracts on Polymarket show a roughly 98% probability that the Federal Reserve leaves rates unchanged at its March 18 meeting, with only about a 12% chance of a 25-basis-point cut by the end of April.

A sustained rally in crude would reinforce inflation pressures, something that the Fed would have to consider when setting rates.

Bitcoin outlook remains mixed as on-chain analyst Willy Woo warns of a potential bull trap ahead of a broader downtrend return. In a Saturday post on X, Woo cautioned that a short-lived breakout could lure investors into believing a sustainable rally is underway, potentially persisting into the end of April. His assessment centers on liquidity dynamics rather than price levels, suggesting that if fresh capital returns with patient, long-term investors, the view could shift. The door for a test of resistance remains open, but the broader context continues to tilt toward a bear market narrative, with price action and flow data painting a sobering picture for near-term bulls.

From a long-range liquidity perspective, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is described as being “solidly in the middle of its bear market.” Woo noted that after swift downward moves, BTC often enters a sideways phase during which resistance is tested but not decisively breached. The comments come as Bitcoin trades around $67,012, a level cited by market trackers after it slid from October’s all-time highs near $126,000. The retreat marks a loss of roughly 46.82% from the pinnacle, underscoring the depth of the bear cycle. While a brisk rally could form a temporary countertrend, the broader trajectory remains bearish until liquidity conditions brighten and longer-horizon buyers re-emerge with conviction.

Despite the fresh pullback and the struggling price action, some investors have pointed to a return of flows in a more constructive light. Woo has stressed that inflows from longer-term holders could alter the outlook, but the current signal is still dominated by liquidity constraints rather than outright bullish catalysts. Other analyses echo a cautious stance: Santiment highlighted a pattern where whales have been selling while retail buyers accumulate near the $70,000 zone, a dynamic that historically signals that the correction could extend further before a durable bottom is formed. The firm’s assessment, noted in commentary on the broader market, aligns with a tendency for significant holder activity to precede any sustained upturn rather than a rapid, self-sustained rally in the near term.

Bitcoin is “solidly” in the middle of a bear market

Willy Woo’s liquidity-centric view sits alongside a broader cadre of voices that view Bitcoin as mired in a structural bear phase. He argued that the most decisive moves tend to unfold after liquidity cycles shift—not solely after price tests or chart patterns. “Typically, after fast downward flushes like we have had, BTC likes to go sideways and mount a rally where resistance is tested,” Woo said, articulating a mechanism by which a surface-level bounce can obscure the continuing risk of a deeper retracement. For investors watching the tape, the implication is that any up-leg must be judged within the context of liquidity healing and the willingness of patient capital to participate meaningfully.

Data points reinforce the bearish backdrop. Bitcoin has retraced from its October peak, and the market has witnessed a broad risk-off mood that has persisted through much of the current cycle. As of the time of publication, CoinMarketCap prices pegged BTC in the mid-$60,000s, reflecting the struggle to sustain a meaningful break above key resistance zones. The combination of a deeply entrenched downtrend and limited willingness among market participants to chase momentum complicates the odds of a durable recovery in the near term. The ongoing debate about whether this cycle marks the start of a new bull phase or a protracted bear market continues to polarize analysts, with some arguing for a secular low kind of consolidation before new highs can be revisited.

In a separate line of analysis, CryptoQuant underscored that “Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally,” a reminder that price gains do not, by themselves, confirm a reversal of the longer-term trend. The nuance matters for traders who historically watch on-chain indicators for liquidity shifts and capitulation signals rather than purely price action. The fear-and-greed gauge recently registered a retreat into extreme fear after a brief uptick, echoing the sentiment that the market remains skittish and hesitant to commit capital at elevated levels. This confluence of factors — on-chain dynamics, whale/retail flow patterns, and volatility in sentiment measures — helps explain why a meaningful up-leg may still be contingent on a more favorable liquidity backdrop and a broader shift in risk appetite among investors.

As the debate rages over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle and whether a new all-time high is on the horizon, the current data paint a cautious picture. The bear-market narrative is not purely a price story; it’s a liquidity story, a pattern of holder behavior, and an evolving sentiment environment that must align before bulls regain the upper hand. The interplay between on-chain signals, macro backdrop, and investor psychology will likely dictate whether the next several weeks bring a durable shift or another retest of the bear-market lows.

For readers seeking points of reference, Bitcoin’s price references persist in the public data feeds and price trackers, with CoinMarketCap offering a widely cited snapshot of levels around $67,000 to $68,000 in the current window. The ongoing discourse among analysts, from Woo to Santiment and CryptoQuant, illustrates the spectrum of views on whether a relief rally can morph into a lasting reversal or will fade under the weight of liquidity constraints and risk-off sentiment. The market remains at a crossroads where the outcome hinges on the balance between sellers’ conviction and new real long-term capital entering the space, a dynamic that will be critical to watch in the weeks ahead. For context on how the broader ecosystem is reacting to these signals, the fear-and-greed gauge, as well as coverage of spot ETF activity and related liquidity shifts, offer additional layers of insight into potential catalysts or headwinds for BTC in the near term.

Willy Woo’s perspective also sits within a wider chain of research into Bitcoin’s price dynamics and cycle theory. In particular, researchers have noted that the four-year cycle debate continues to generate discussion about whether macro timing, halving cycles, and investor behavior will align in a way that produces a new set of all-time highs. While the consensus remains unsettled, the prevailing view across a subset of on-chain analysts is that the market may see a period of consolidation and liquidity-driven volatility before any sustained upside materializes. The critical takeaway for traders is that the absence of a robust influx of patient capital reduces the probability of a clean breakout, even if a short-term rally captures attention and drives a temporary surge in volume.

Related:Bitcoin relief rally hits wall as spot ETFs log $228M in outflows

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% within a 15-minute window on Sunday as oil surged on escalating Middle East tensions, underscoring how energy-market shocks can ripple into the crypto space. Data from the decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid showed crude prices jumping from about $95 to $113.7 per barrel shortly after U.S. futures markets opened, driven by Iraq’s warning that roughly 3 million barrels per day of production could be disrupted amid Iranian threats against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz. The move marked the steepest one-day spike in oil in years, and it came as traders weighed the broader risk environment. In the immediate crypto reaction, Bitcoin briefly fell from $66,960 to $65,725 before rebounding toward $66,272 as funding and futures trading kicked in after the open.

Hyperliquid’s oil data also captured a later cooling, with prices easing back to around $105 per barrel, offering some relief to risk-assets that had roiled in the wake of the invasion-era proxy tensions. The narrative around energy and risk sentiment was already dynamic, as last week’s surge followed a broader fuel-price rally triggered by U.S.-Israel actions against Iran and the ensuing regional countermeasures. The same period saw Bitcoin rally off a dip, climbing from sub-$64,000 levels to roughly $73,770 mid-week after earlier volatility tied to geopolitical headlines, only to retreat again as the latest flare-ups unfolded. The price action illustrates a pattern where macro shocks can impose quick, non-linear moves on a market that remains highly sensitive to risk-off dynamics.

In a separate layer of context, former U.S. President Donald Trump commented that the run-up in oil prices would be temporary, arguing that any advance would come down quickly. “We figured oil prices would go up, which they will. They’ll also come down. They’ll come down very fast,” he told reporters, signaling to investors that energy-market pressures might ease, though the practical transmission to crypto markets remains nuanced. The broader environment—characterized by geopolitical risk, commodity volatility, and macro uncertainty—continues to shape crypto price formation in ways that can amplify short-term moves even as long-term narratives remain undecided.

Last week’s activity had already highlighted Bitcoin’s sensitivity to geopolitical risk. By midweek, the benchmark crypto had moved from a sub-$64,000 base to a recent peak near $73,770, a swing driven in part by headlines on Iran and allied regional actions. The latest cycle, however, shows a retreat from those highs, with the weekend data painting a more mixed picture as oil markets swung on supply expectations and geopolitical headlines. The net effect for the sector is a reminder that Bitcoin—often framed as a hedge by proponents—continues to trade in step with broader risk-on and risk-off cycles, even as its decoupling thesis remains a point of contention for researchers and market observers.

As traders digest the evolving scenario, several threads are converging: the reliability of energy supplies in a geopolitically tense region, the willingness of futures and options markets to provide liquidity during a flare-up, and the extent to which crypto markets price in these cross-asset risk factors. The oil-price path, with a peak well above $110 per barrel and subsequent consolidation around $105, acts as a barometer for how quickly risk appetite can toggle in digital-asset markets. For now, the price action around Bitcoin shows resilience after the initial decline, but the longer arc will depend on how the Strait of Hormuz risk evolves and how quickly production disruptions can be mitigated through alternative supply and policy responses.

Key takeaways

• Oil spiked to $113.7 per barrel after the open, driven by Iraq’s warning of potential disruptions in roughly 3 million barrels per day of output due to Iranian threats against tanker traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
• Bitcoin traded a volatile path, dropping from about $66,960 to $65,725 during the early session before bouncing to roughly $66,272 as futures trading commenced.
• Oil prices later cooled to around $105 per barrel, offering a partial reprieve for risk assets amid ongoing geopolitical risk considerations.
• Bitcoin climbed through the prior week amid regional tensions, rising from below $64,000 to around $73,770, before retreating in the recent volatility cycle.
• Trump signaled that the move in oil would be temporary, a stance that markets weighed as they assessed the persistence of energy-market pressure and its impact on crypto liquidity and investor risk sentiment.
• The events underscore how energy-market dynamics and geopolitical risk can translate into rapid, cross-asset moves, including in digital assets and decentralized finance platforms.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC

Market context: The episode highlights how macro shocks—especially energy-market volatility tied to geopolitical frictions—can influence crypto liquidity and price action, even as investors weigh longer-term narratives around adoption, regulation, and institutional participation.

Why it matters

The weekend moves emphasize the ongoing sensitivity of digital-asset markets to macro developments. While Bitcoin has at times been framed as a hedge against traditional market risk, recent episodes suggest it remains intricately linked to broader risk sentiment, liquidity conditions, and policy signals. For traders and investors, the immediate takeaway is to monitor cross-asset channels—oil, credit, and equities—alongside crypto-specific indicators and on-chain signals to gauge potential follow-through in Bitcoin and related assets. Corporations, funds, and retail participants alike are watching how geopolitical risk translates into volatility across the crypto ecosystem, and how liquidity providers respond when traditional markets exhibit stress.

From a risk-management perspective, the situation underscores the value of diversification and hedging strategies that can operate across asset classes. It also raises questions about the resilience of crypto markets during sustained energy-price shocks and the potential for spillovers from geopolitical risk into DeFi protocols and spot markets. As observers track the evolving narrative—from tanker-route tensions to potential diplomatic or policy steps—the overall message is that crypto markets remain a dynamic and reactive frontier, where macro headlines can rapidly redefine sentiment and price trajectories.

What to watch next

• Oil price trajectory: Will prices stabilize near the $105–$110 range, or head higher if tensions persist or escalate further?
• Bitcoin price path: Will BTC hold above crucial levels around the mid-60,000s, or test new support as macro risk continues to shape liquidity?
• Geopolitical developments: Fresh statements or actions from Iraqi, Iranian, or regional actors that could affect oil flow and risk appetite.
• Market messaging: Any new commentary from policymakers or major financial institutions that might recalibrate energy and crypto risk premia.

Sources & verification

• Hyperliquid data on crude oil (OIL) price movements and intraday spikes in response to Middle East tensions.
• Iraq’s public warnings regarding potential disruptions to production in the context of Iranian threats against tanker routes.
• Bitcoin price moves described in the session, including the drop to $65,725 and rebound to $66,272 as U.S. futures opened.
• Historical context of Bitcoin’s rally in the prior week during geopolitical developments, with prices rising toward $73,770.
• Trump’s comments on oil-price dynamics and the implied expectation of a rapid reversion, as reported in the coverage.
• Related coverage: Iranian crypto outflows spike after geopolitical events (linked in the source material) for cross-verification of crypto-market responses to cross-border tensions.

Market reaction and key details

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) movements during the latest flare-up illustrate how crypto markets respond to energy-market volatility and geopolitical risk. After a sharp intraday dip, BTC retraced higher as futures and spot liquidity interacted with macro headlines. The oil market’s swing from the mid-$90s to well above $110 a barrel and back toward the $105 level served as a backdrop for a crypto market that continues to navigate evolving liquidity conditions, central-bank expectations, and the broader risk-on/off environment. The interplay between oil shocks and digital-asset pricing remains a focal point for traders looking to understand the sensitivity of decentralized markets to traditional macro indicators.

Why it matters

The episode reinforces that crypto markets are not insulated from real-world risk factors. Energy-price volatility can alter risk appetite, liquidity provision, and cross-asset correlations, influencing how quickly traders move in and out of Bitcoin and other digital assets. For long-term holders, the event highlights the importance of monitoring macro headlines and cross-market signals, as short-term volatility can be driven by geopolitical developments even when fundamental narratives for the technology remain intact. For builders and investors, it underscores the need for robust risk management, liquidity planning, and diversification strategies that can weather multi-asset shocks as geopolitical dynamics evolve.

What to watch next

• Watch oil-market action over the coming days for signs of sustained escalations or de-escalations, with attention to any new disruptions to supply or tanker traffic.
• Monitor Bitcoin price levels around critical thresholds (in the 60k–70k area) and the depth of liquidity during U.S. market hours.
• Track official statements and policy responses from Middle East stakeholders, which could alter energy-price expectations and risk sentiment.

Sources & verification

• Hyperliquid’s oil-price feed and its reported intraday spike to $113.7/bbl and later retreat to around $105/bbl.
• The Iraqi production-disruption warning related to Iranian threats against Strait of Hormuz traffic.
• Bitcoin price trail: decline to $65,725 and rebound toward $66,272 as U.S. futures markets opened.
• Mid-week Bitcoin rally to roughly $73,770 during the period of heightened geopolitical activity.
• Public commentary from Donald Trump regarding the oil-price trajectory and expected quick normalization.
• Related coverage on Iran-related crypto flows and broader regional developments for cross-verification of market responses.

Market reaction to oil shock and bitcoin price moves

In summary, the latest price action around Bitcoin and oil demonstrates the evolving dynamic between energy markets and digital assets. While Bitcoin has shown resilience at times, its short-term movements appear closely tied to macro risk signals, especially in moments of heightened geopolitical risk. As the situation continues to unfold, market participants should prepare for continued volatility and pay close attention to cross-market indicators that can illuminate the path forward for both energy prices and cryptocurrency prices.

Bitcoin fell nearly 2% in just 15 minutes on Sunday while oil prices rose almost 20% as the escalating Middle East conflict prompted fears of a major supply shortage in the global energy market.

Data from decentralized derivatives platform Hyperliquid shows oil prices rose from $95 to $113.7 per barrel shortly after US futures markets opened, as Iraq warned that roughly 3 million barrels per day of production could be disrupted due to Iranian threats against tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.

It’s the highest price oil has reached since April 2022, a few weeks after Russia commenced its invasion of Ukraine, TradingView data shows. 

The price of oil rose more than 30% last week after the US and Israel struck Iran, leading the war-torn nation to counterstrike against several of its Middle Eastern neighbors.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell from $66,960 to $65,725 by 10:30 pm UTC on Sunday as US futures markets opened before bouncing back up to $66,272 at the time of publication.

Hyperliquid data also shows that oil prices have cooled off to $105 per barrel.

Bitcoin climbed during the Middle Eastern conflict last week, which saw the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, rising from below $64,000 to $73,770 by Wednesday.

But since then, Bitcoin’s price has fallen over the last four consecutive days.