Crypto World
Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Fed, dies at age 100
Alan Greenspan, the longtime Federal Reserve chairman known as “the Maestro” who became one of the most influential economic policymakers of his era and famously warned of “irrational exuberance,” has died. He was 100.
The influential economist died Monday from complications of Parkinson’s Disease, said his wife of 29 years, Andrea Mitchell, the chief Washington correspondent and chief foreign affairs correspondent for NBC News.
Greenspan was appointed Fed chairman in 1987 by President Ronald Reagan and held the position — through busts and booms — until retiring in 2006. His tenure was the second longest, four months short of that of William McChesney Martin, who presided over the central bank from 1951 to 1970.
It was his unusual frankness in one televised speech, on Dec. 5, 1996, that set off a bit of market madness. Discussing the challenges of setting monetary policy, he said:
“How do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade? … We should not underestimate or become complacent about the complexity of the interactions of asset markets and the economy.”
The phrase “irrational exuberance” was interpreted as a signal that Greenspan thought the market was overvalued. The Tokyo stock market, which was open at the time, sank 3% on the comment, and other markets subsequently tumbled. However, the markets quickly recovered and continued to climb until the dot-com bust in 2001.
Years earlier, in 1974, when he was chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Greenspan had to explain on Capitol Hill why the administration wasn’t whipping inflation now, as the Ford administration dubbed its war on rising prices. In a sure-to-befuddle Greenspanism, he said: “It is a tricky problem to find the particular calibration in timing that would be appropriate to stem the acceleration in risk premiums created by falling incomes without prematurely aborting the decline in the inflation-generated risk premiums.”
“Some folks, especially money managers who shovel vast amounts of cash from one pile to another, think about Greenspan a lot,” Linton Weeks and John M. Berry wrote in The Washington Post in March 1997. “They watch his every word, mark his every move, graph his every grin. Because second to the president, Alan Greenspan is arguably the nation’s most powerful person. … With a couple of choice words he can momentarily send the stock market to heaven or hell.”
In an apparent bid to avoid rocking the markets or not showing the Fed’s hand until it was time, Greenspan would cloak his utterances in language that left the sharpest minds — including those of contentious members of Congress — scratching their heads.
“His long, convoluted sentences seem to take away at the end what they have given at the beginning as they flow to new levels of incomprehensibility,” The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward said in his 2000 biography “Maestro: Greenspan’s Fed and the American Boom.”
After his retirement from the Fed, Greenspan confessed his strategy for using perplexing language with a clear explanation.
“It’s a language of purposeful obfuscation to avoid certain questions coming up, which you know you can’t answer, and saying ‘I will not answer’ or basically ‘no comment’ is, in fact, an answer,” he said in a 2007 interview on CNBC. “So, you end up with when, say, a congressman asks you a question, and [you] don’t want to say, ‘no comment,’ or ‘I won’t answer,’ or something like that. So, I proceed with four or five sentences which get increasingly obscure. The congressman thinks I answered the question and goes on to the next one.”
Some folks, especially money managers who shovel vast amounts of cash from one pile to another, think about Greenspan a lot. They watch his every word, mark his every move, graph his every grin. Because second to the president, Alan Greenspan is arguably the nation’s most powerful person. … With a couple of choice words he can momentarily send the stock market to heaven or hell.”
Linton Weeks and John M. Berry
The Washington Post, March 1997.
Greenspan was born to Jewish parents on March 6, 1926, in New York’s Washington Heights. His father was a stockbroker and financial analyst. As a boy growing up in the 1930s during the Great Depression, the future Fed chairman received an allowance of a quarter a week.
“Twenty-five cents, I will tell you, bought a lot more then than it does these days,” Greenspan told an audience in 2003.
Greenspan played the clarinet and saxophone and briefly attended the Juilliard School. He played in Woody Herman’s jazz band (as did another future White House official, Leonard Garment), before he enrolled in New York University, earning bachelor’s and master’s degrees in economics by 1950. He eventually received his Ph.D. in 1977 — at age 51.
Among his teachers and mentors were the future Fed Chairman Arthur Burns and the free-market proponent Ayn Rand, to whom Greenspan was introduced by his first wife, the artist Joan Mitchell.
Alan Greenspan
Andrew Harrer | Bloomberg | Getty Images
By the time he received his doctorate, he had worked at Brown Brothers Harriman, the National Industrial Conference Board and the Townsend-Greenspan consulting firm, which closed after he was nominated as Fed chairman. His three-decade stint at Townsend-Greenspan was interrupted when he served as chairman of President Gerald Ford’s Council of Economic Advisers from 1974 to 1977. From 1981 to 1983, he was chairman of the National Commission on Social Security Reform.
His first job as an economist didn’t pay much more than his childhood allowance: He got $45 a week.
The first of his five terms at the Fed began just before the 1987 financial crisis. The Senate confirmed his nomination to succeed Paul Volcker on Aug. 11.
That was only 69 days before “Black Monday” crushed Wall Street on Oct. 19. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 508 points — 22.6% — in the session, the biggest one-day sell-off in history. The next day, Greenspan affirmed the Fed’s readiness “to serve as a source of liquidity to support the economic and financial system.” His central bank lowered short-term interest rates to encourage banks to lend on their usual terms.
The strategy helped calm the jitters and avoid a recession and banking crisis. Within two days, the Dow regained more than 50% of its Black Monday losses. The bravado also helped earn Greenspan the sobriquet “Maestro” from supporters. Years later, critics blamed the easy money policy — the “Greenspan put” he used to help calm market panics — for conditions that brought on the Great Recession.
“It’s HIS economy, stupid,” Fortune magazine declared in March 1996, throwing back at President Bill Clinton the campaign slogan he used in defeating President George H.W. Bush four years earlier. “In Greenspan We Trust,” the article’s headline said.
After that white-knuckle start, he led the Fed through two recessions, the 1997 Asian financial crisis, the 1998 Russian financial default, the 1998 bailout of the hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management, the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, and the dot-com boom and bust of the late ’90s through 2001.
Throughout, he focused on fighting inflation over promoting full employment. His supporters say he presided over the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, but critics said Greenspan’s low interest rate policies set the stage for the housing bubble that burst into the Great Recession a year after his successor, Ben Bernanke, took the Fed helm.
“Sometimes I get criticized, and I deserve to be criticized, and that’s part of the game,” Greenspan told USA Today in 2007. “But this one, I’m innocent.”
Greenspan acknowledged that he knew about the questionable lending practices that encouraged subprime borrowers to opt for risky adjustable-rate mortgages.
“While I was aware a lot of these practices were going on, I had no notion of how significant they had become until very late,” he said in a 2007 interview with CBS’ “60 Minutes.” “I really didn’t get it until very late in 2005 and 2006.”
And in his best-selling memoir “The Age of Turbulence,” he defended the low-rate policy, which encouraged people to buy homes: “I believed then, as now, that the benefits of broadened homeownership are worth the risk. Protection of property rights, so critical to a market economy, requires a critical mass of owners to sustain political support.”
Greenspan wrote the book in longhand, mostly while soaking in a bathtub because of a back injury. In fact, most of his speeches were penned that way after he injured his back in 1971.
After he left the Fed, Greenspan opened his own consulting firm, Greenspan Associates.
Greenspan’s first marriage ended in divorce after less than a year. In 1997, he married NBC journalist Andrea Mitchell, also a Washington denizen and fellow classical music aficionado 20 years his junior, in a ceremony officiated by the late Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg.
In his 2007 memoir, he praised presidents Ford and Clinton, but harshly criticized President George W. Bush for not reining in spending.
President George W. Bush (L) with Alan Greenspan (R) after Ben Bernanke was sworn in as Federal Reserve chairman, Washington, Feb. 6, 2006.
Jim Watson | AFP | Getty Images
“Little value was placed on rigorous economic policy debate or the weighing of long-term consequences,” the self-described libertarian Republican wrote. “They swapped principle for power. They ended up with neither. They deserved to lose.”
He also was critical of President Donald Trump’s first-term bashing of the Fed in an effort to get interest rates lower. Appearing on CNBC’s “Squawk on the Street” shortly after a December 2019 Trump tweet aimed at the central bank, Greenspan said: “He’s wrong in even discussing the issue. The Federal Reserve is a very professional outfit. They know more about the economy’s functioning, how it affects the money markets and the interest rate structure, far more than he does. … The best thing to do is to just disregard it. I didn’t hear this morning that the president made a statement. I’m sure it was ill-advised.”
During Trump’s second term, in January 2026, Greenspan signed a joint statement with a handful of other former Fed and Treasury officials to denounce a criminal probe of Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
“The reported criminal inquiry into Federal Reserve Chair Jay Powell is an unprecedented attempt to use prosecutorial attacks to undermine that independence,” read the statement, backed by Greenspan and more than a dozen other signatories.
Greenspan recognized the limits of the Fed’s influence. Asked during a 2008 interview on CNBC whether the central bank should be given more power to regulate investment banks, he responded:
“What I am concerned about is basically the Fed being given the role to oversee the financial stability system. I don’t think anyone can do that, and I’m most worried that were the Fed to take that job on and fail, as everyone else has and will, you cannot anticipate the future. I think it undermines the credibility of the central banking system.”
Ultimately, he realized that despite all the science involved in economics, financial risk management can’t win in meltdown situations like the Great Recession.
“Fear and euphoria are dominant forces, and fear is many multiples the size of euphoria,” he told The Associated Press after publication of his book “The Map and the Territory 2.0” in 2013. “Bubbles go up very slowly as euphoria builds. Then fear hits, and it comes down very sharply. When I started to look at that, I was sort of intellectually shocked. Contagion is the critical phenomenon which causes the thing to fall apart.”
Correction: Bob Woodward’s book on Alan Greenspan published in 2000. An earlier version misstated the year. Hedge fund Long-Term Capital Management was bailed out in 1998. An earlier version misstated the name of the firm.
Crypto World
Wall Street AI Watch: Micron (MU) Results, SK Hynix $29B Listing, and Chip Stock Recovery
Quick Summary
- Micron’s quarterly report served as a critical barometer for ongoing AI infrastructure investment
- Chip stocks like Nvidia and Broadcom rebounded strongly following this week’s earlier downturn
- SK Hynix unveiled plans for a U.S. stock market debut potentially worth $29 billion
- The Nasdaq regained ground after multiple days of technology-led losses
- Cerebras delivered earnings results, offering insight into specialized AI chip demand
Artificial intelligence remained front and center across financial markets today. Between quarterly earnings announcements and a blockbuster listing reveal, semiconductor companies commanded attention from traders and investors alike.
Micron’s Report Becomes AI Demand Litmus Test
[[LINK_START_0]]Micron’s quarterly earnings release[[LINK_END_0]] stood as the session’s most anticipated event.
Market participants track Micron carefully since its memory products power AI servers and data center infrastructure. Robust performance in these segments indicates continued aggressive spending by hyperscalers on artificial intelligence capabilities.
Anticipation ran high ahead of the announcement. Micron shares had delivered solid returns throughout 2026, leaving Wall Street eager for validation that high-bandwidth memory sales momentum persisted.
The implications extended well beyond a single company’s performance. Positive figures would reinforce optimism about semiconductor industry health. Disappointing numbers might trigger concerns about the actual pace of AI capital expenditure growth.
Few quarterly reports this season attracted comparable investor scrutiny.
Chip Sector Mounts Strong Recovery
Following recent pressure, semiconductor equities rallied meaningfully.
Nvidia, [[LINK_START_1]]Broadcom[[LINK_END_1]], and Intel all posted gains as capital flowed back into AI-linked stocks. The price action indicated many market participants viewed the recent selloff as an entry point rather than a fundamental warning.
AI-related capital spending continues representing one of the market’s most powerful tailwinds.
Hyperscale cloud providers maintain multi-billion-dollar commitments to data center expansion, advanced processors, and networking infrastructure. Today’s recovery demonstrated that underlying conviction in the sector remains intact.
Volatility has increased noticeably, yet demand emerged swiftly at lower price levels.
SK Hynix Announces Plans for $29 Billion U.S. Market Debut
The session’s most significant corporate development originated from SK Hynix.
The South Korean memory manufacturer disclosed intentions to pursue a United States listing in a transaction potentially generating approximately $29 billion. Upon completion, this would represent one of the largest public offerings on record.
[[LINK_START_2]]SK Hynix[[LINK_END_2]] specializes in high-bandwidth memory production, a critical component enabling contemporary AI system performance.
A U.S. market presence would provide investors with direct exposure to one of the most sought-after segments within the semiconductor value chain. The announcement underscores extraordinary investor appetite for AI-connected equity opportunities.
Nasdaq Composite Regains Momentum
The [[LINK_START_3]]Nasdaq[[LINK_END_3]] index posted positive returns following multiple consecutive down sessions.
Technology shares paced the advance as market participants grew increasingly comfortable with current valuations after the recent correction. While inflation and monetary policy concerns persist, buying interest nonetheless materialized.
The rebound indicates investors remain prepared to add exposure when high-quality technology companies experience pullbacks.
Semiconductors, AI infrastructure providers, and cloud computing firms continue leading broader market performance over the trailing twelve months.
Cerebras Provides Additional AI Sector Perspective
[[LINK_START_4]]Cerebras[[LINK_END_4]] published quarterly results as well, capturing attention from investors seeking exposure beyond dominant chip manufacturers.
The firm produces processors engineered exclusively for artificial intelligence computing tasks. Its financial performance offered visibility into demand patterns for specialized hardware operating outside Nvidia’s ecosystem.
The report contributed additional data points suggesting AI hardware investment remains broadly distributed rather than concentrated among just a handful of suppliers.
Investors continue monitoring emerging players like Cerebras to gauge the true breadth of AI infrastructure deployment.
The quarterly figures reinforced that artificial intelligence maintains its position as the defining investment theme propelling technology sector allocation as 2026 progresses.
The old saying – sell in May and go away – proved to be right once again for the cryptocurrency markets. It was just six weeks ago when bitcoin had evidently reclaimed the $80,000 level and even surged to a multi-month peak at almost $83,000. The sentiment was gradually improving and there were even calls for $100,000 by the summer.
However, the tides turned viciously and the asset was rejected vigorously. Its decline since then has been nothing short of painful, dumping below $60,000 earlier today for the second time in June.
Is This Why?
Popular analyst Ali Martinez brought out the Coinbase Premium metric earlier today as the markets were crashing to fresh low. CryptoPotato reported when BTC dumped below $60,000 but managed to maintain above the $59,000 level and has now reclaimed the former.
According to Martinez, though, the metric that stands out the most for the past six weeks or so is the one that tracks how much BTC costs on Coinbase compared to Binance. In general, if the Premium is in the green, it means US investors (typically institutions) are accumulating bitcoin en masse on Coinbase, pushing its price there above the levels on international exchanges.
However, the last 46 days have not seen such green days. Or, as Martinez put it:
“A negative premium means BTC is trading cheaper on Coinbase, suggesting that US institutional buying pressure has dried up.”
He believes this slowdown mimics the massive investor exodus from the US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds have bled approximately $5 billion in essentially the same timeframe because “American smart money appears to be sitting on the sidelines, waiting for macroeconomic clarity before re-entering the accumulation phase.”
Other Plausible Reasons
As we recently noted, the ETFs are indeed among the many possible reasons behind BTC’s latest leg down. Others include the uncertainty around the war against Iran, strengthening dollar, or even some OG investors selling off. However, another biggie that stands out is the FUD around Strategy and its Stretch shares.
STRC has dumped below its par price of $100, currently trading at a hefty discount at $80. This essentially increases the pressure that the BTC-buying machine is under as the ‘flywheel’ effect is disrupted and the company now has to pay higher yield. According to some analysts, this could result in massive BTC sales from Strategy.
The post Is This the Hidden Reason Behind Bitcoin’s $23K Collapse in Just 6 Weeks? appeared first on CryptoPotato.
Wendy’s stock climbed almost 30% on Wednesday after traders on Reddit’s WallStreetBets forum rallied behind the struggling burger chain, reviving the meme-stock playbook that powered GameStop in 2021.
The rally lifted Wendy’s shares (WEN) to an intraday high near $8.89 and triggered at least one volatility halt, even as sales keep sliding.
Why Wendy’s Stock Drew a Short Squeeze
The move started with a since-deleted WallStreetBets post that urged members to rescue the chain before it collapsed. Copycat posts showing share and options purchases quickly followed.
“Save Wendy’s before it’s too late,” the post read.
Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens
Volume confirmed the frenzy. More than 202 million shares changed hands, over 15 times the recent average.
The stock logged its biggest single-day gain since March 2020, CNBC reported. Wendy’s had ended the prior session near $6.26, not far from a multiyear low.
The squeeze setup is real but far smaller than 2021. About 23% of Wendy’s float was sold short before the rally, according to S3 Partners. The same firm put GameStop’s short interest above 140% of its float ahead of the 2021 squeeze.
Rising prices can still force shorts to buy back stock, which pushes prices higher. That pattern drove the AMC and GameStop squeeze, and it resurfaced this year during the GameStop meme stock frenzy.
A CFO Hire Gives Bulls a Story
Sentiment had a fundamental hook too. Wendy’s named Steve Cirulis chief financial officer on June 23, succeeding Ken Cook, according to a regulatory filing.
Cirulis ran finance at Potbelly alongside Bob Wright, now Wendy’s CEO. The company credits the pair with a more than 500% gain in Potbelly’s share price during their tenure.
That record gave retail buyers a turnaround story to chase, a familiar driver of meme driven market moves. The hire builds on a recovery plan the company calls Project Fresh.
Fundamentals Still Point Down
The business behind the rally remains weak. US same-restaurant sales fell 7.8% in the first quarter, and net income slid to $22.7 million.
Quarterly earnings still beat reduced forecasts, yet the rally rests on sentiment rather than results.
Wendy’s has been here before. A June 2021 Reddit post hailed Wendy’s as the perfect WallStreetBets stock and briefly drove shares up 26%. That rally faded within weeks because almost none of the stock was sold short.
This time a crowded short base gives the move real fuel. Still, most names lifted by Reddit traders and markets eventually gave back their gains.
Wendy’s gains holding may depend on how long the crowd stays interested.
The post Wendy’s Stock Climbs 30% as WallStreetBets Targets a GameStop Repeat appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Kalshi is seeking to raise fresh capital at a valuation of about $40 billion, nearly doubling the $22 billion valuation it targeted in its previous funding round, according to a Financial Times report citing people familiar with the matter.
The prediction markets platform could close the fundraising as soon as the third quarter of this year, FT said.
If completed, the deal would widen Kalshi’s valuation lead over rival Polymarket, which was last reported to be seeking funding at $15 billion. The two platforms have emerged as the dominant names in the prediction markets sector, while many other entrants have increased the industry’s competitive landscape.
Kalshi’s previous funding round, which valued the company at $22 billion, attracted a roster of high-profile investors including Philippe Laffont’s Coatue Management, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz and Morgan Stanley.
Competition in the sector has intensified as firms race to capture users and expand product offerings.
Kalshi operates as a federally regulated exchange in the United States, a distinction that has helped it attract mainstream investors and institutional backing. Meanwhile, Polymarket, which uses blockchain infrastructure and cryptocurrency-based settlement, has gained popularity among crypto traders and has become widely followed during recent election cycles.
Michelle Bond, the wife of Ryan Salame—former co-CEO of FTX Digital Markets—has been scheduled for trial in November following delays tied to motions connected to Salame’s plea agreement. The proceeding comes as prosecutors pursue remaining criminal accountability related to the 2022 collapse of FTX, an episode that has since reshaped regulatory scrutiny of crypto-linked political activity and financial crime controls.
On Wednesday, U.S. District Judge George Daniels of the Southern District of New York set Bond’s trial to begin on Nov. 9. Bond faces four charges alleging violations of U.S. campaign finance law, stemming from prosecutors’ claims that FTX-related money was used to improperly support a 2022 congressional bid.
Key takeaways
- Judge George Daniels ordered Michelle Bond’s criminal trial to start on Nov. 9 in the Southern District of New York.
- Bond is charged with four offenses related to alleged campaign finance violations connected to the 2022 U.S. House race in New York’s 1st district.
- Prosecutors alleged that Ryan Salame used FTX funds in a “sham” payment arrangement, which they said violated campaign finance rules.
- The case is part of the final criminal track arising from FTX’s 2022 bankruptcy, following convictions and prison sentences for other key figures.
Bond’s trial date set amid motion-related delays
Bond’s schedule reflects procedural disputes that have continued since the charges were brought. A week earlier, Judge Daniels denied a motion by Bond seeking dismissal of the indictment. According to reporting by Cointelegraph, the defense argued that prosecutors had promised Salame he would not be charged if he pleaded guilty—an issue that, if accepted, could have materially affected Bond’s exposure.
With the dismissal attempt rejected, the court moved forward to establish a firm trial start date. For compliance and legal teams, the decision is significant because it underscores how plea negotiations and alleged assurances can become contested topics in later proceedings involving related defendants, even when one defendant has already resolved the matter through a plea agreement.
Alleged campaign finance conduct tied to the FTX collapse
Bond’s case is anchored in an August 2024 indictment. Prosecutors alleged that Bond and Salame “illegally funded” Salame’s political activity by using FTX resources to support a 2022 campaign for the U.S. House of Representatives.
The government’s allegations include that Salame used $400,000 of FTX funds as part of a “sham” payment intended to comply on paper while violating campaign finance laws in substance. Bond reportedly ran as a Republican in New York’s 1st congressional district, though she lost in the primary to Nicholas LaLota.
From an institutional perspective, the case illustrates a recurring enforcement theme: where crypto-related business failures intersect with political contributions, prosecutors may pursue campaign finance statutes in addition to financial fraud and related offenses. That creates additional compliance expectations for crypto firms and their leadership regarding the provenance of funds, controls around payments, and documentation that can withstand scrutiny across regulatory regimes.
How the plea deal with Salame shaped the remaining proceedings
Ryan Salame pleaded guilty and ultimately received a 7.5-year prison sentence, concluding his own criminal case. Authorities alleged that, as part of a conspiracy to make unlawful political contributions, Salame and others used money linked to FTX to support political activity. Salame later attempted to vacate his plea, arguing that prosecutors had misled him regarding whether Bond would face charges. Ultimately, he reported to prison in October 2024, leaving the dispute to continue within his wife’s case.
Bond’s trial therefore sits at the end of a broader U.S. prosecution landscape stemming from FTX’s collapse and its aftermath. The government’s pursuit of multiple individuals tied to FTX has included defendants who received prison time, as well as cooperation outcomes that reduced sentences for some witnesses.
In addition to Bond’s expected trial, the FTX criminal docket has largely reached resolution for several other participants. Sam “SBF” Bankman-Fried and Caroline Ellison—former Alameda Research CEO—were convicted or sentenced in separate proceedings. Two other former executives, Nishad Singh and Gary Wang, were given time served after testifying against Bankman-Fried at trial, reflecting the structure of cooperation-driven outcomes.
Parallel litigation: Bankman-Fried’s appeal and pardon bid
While Bond’s matter moves toward trial, Sam Bankman-Fried remains at a different procedural stage. Authorities convicted him on seven felony charges and sentenced him to 25 years in prison in 2024. Although Bankman-Fried sought to appeal his conviction and sentence, the Second Circuit recently rejected his appeal, leaving limited avenues for relief.
Separately, Bankman-Fried has pursued clemency routes, including applying for a presidential pardon from Donald Trump. However, as the appellate process has narrowed, the practical pathway to freedom is now tied either to further legal escalation to the U.S. Supreme Court or to executive action via pardon—an uncertainty that continues to shape the political and legal discourse around the case.
For institutional observers, this matters less because it affects crypto markets directly and more because it highlights how high-profile crypto fraud enforcement can diverge into distinct tracks: courtroom adjudication, sentencing appeals, and executive clemency. These overlapping tracks can influence how defense strategies and prosecutorial positions are evaluated in future cases with similar fact patterns involving financial wrongdoing and political or public-facing conduct.
Closing perspective
Bond’s Nov. 9 trial date sets a clear procedural next step, but unresolved questions around the indictment’s dismissal arguments—and how courts treat alleged assurances connected to plea deals—could still be consequential if litigated through motions and pretrial rulings. As the remaining FTX-related prosecutions narrow toward final outcomes, compliance professionals should watch how courts evaluate links between crypto-linked funding flows and regulated activity outside the financial sector, including campaign finance rules.
Crypto World
Ethereum Holds Near $1,600 as Whale Activity and Stablecoin Data Hint at a Potential Trend Reversal
TLDR:
- Ethereum is trading near $1,600, approximately 21% below its 30-day peak amid sustained market weakness.
- Two whale wallets withdrew $58.83M in ETH from Kraken and Bitgo, matching prior Bitmine purchase patterns.
- Binance stablecoin reserves and netflows have shifted to neutral, signaling a pause in aggressive capital flight.
- The bullish regime shift probability has climbed to 45%, but confirmation signals are still needed before acting.
Ethereum is trading around $1,600, roughly 21% below its 30-day peak, as on-chain data and whale activity draw renewed attention.
A quantitative regime model currently enforces a highly defensive stance, limiting market exposure to just 15%. Yet underlying metrics are shifting, with the probability of a bullish regime transition climbing to 45%.
Analysts and market observers are watching closely for confirmation signals before adjusting their positioning.
Defensive Model Meets Stabilizing Liquidity
Ethereum’s current price decline reflects a broader period of caution across crypto markets. The systematic regime model relies on multiple data layers, not price action alone.
It factors in Bitcoin’s structural cycles, derivative flows, and stablecoin dynamics on major exchanges like Binance.
Trend filters remain weak, with a moving average death cross showing a spread of -18.8%. That reading keeps the model in a highly defensive mode, reducing exposure significantly. However, momentum indicators tell a different story at the margin.
MACD histograms are contracting positively, suggesting that selling pressure may be running out of steam. This divergence between long-term trend weakness and short-term momentum stabilization is a key feature of the current setup.
Crucially, stablecoin data on Binance adds another layer of nuance. Stablecoin reserves registered a z-score of -0.32σ, while netflows came in at +0.20σ, both now in neutral territory.
This suggests the aggressive capital flight seen during deep corrections has paused, and exchange liquidity is no longer actively draining.
Whale Withdrawals Add a Bullish Variable
On-chain intelligence firm Arkham flagged notable activity from two fresh whale addresses this week. The wallets withdrew a combined $58.83 million worth of Ethereum from Kraken and Bitgo within hours.
Arkham noted that the purchase patterns matched prior observed activity linked to Bitmine, raising speculation about institutional accumulation.
Arkham posted on X: “Is Tom Lee stacking ETH this week?” referencing Bitmine chairman Tom Lee, known for public bullish stances on digital assets. The withdrawal pattern drew attention because it occurred against a backdrop of broader price weakness.
Ethereum recorded a 2.94% decline over the past 24 hours and a 7.43% drop over the past seven days, with 24-hour trading volume reaching $13.08 billion. Despite that, large-wallet behavior suggests some participants are positioning ahead of a potential reversal.
A decisive shift in Binance stablecoin netflows toward positive territory could serve as an early signal of returning risk appetite.
Until that confirmation arrives, the data supports patience rather than conviction in either direction. Ethereum’s next move may depend on whether these liquidity and behavioral signals continue to align.
Crypto World
Ethlabs Will Overlap with the Ethereum Foundation and Draw Its 'Densest Talent,' Funders Say
Ethlabs, a new Ethereum research lab backed by the network's two largest corporate holders, launched this week with a pitch to complement the Ethereum Foundation. Its own funders concede it will also compete as Ethlabs is “playing to win.” "I think they will be complementary," Joseph Chalom, chief… Read the full story at The Defiant
Kalshi has entered talks to raise fresh capital at a valuation of about $40 billion, an 82% jump from the $22 billion valuation it secured less than two months ago.
Summary
- Kalshi is reportedly seeking new funding at a $40 billion valuation, up 82% from May.
- The company processed over $17 billion in monthly trading volume and recently expanded crypto perpetuals.
- Legal disputes with CME Group and several U.S. states continue as Kalshi grows its product lineup.
According to a Financial Times report citing people familiar with the discussions, Kalshi is seeking a new funding round that could value the prediction market operator at roughly $40 billion, with the financing potentially closing as early as the third quarter.
The proposed valuation would represent another sharp increase for the company, which was valued at $22 billion during a $1 billion funding round completed in May. Earlier in 2025, Kalshi carried a valuation of about $5 billion, while its December valuation stood at $11 billion before doubling in the latest raise.
Investors in the previous financing included Coatue, Sequoia Capital, Andreessen Horowitz, and Morgan Stanley. If completed, the new round would push Kalshi’s valuation to eight times the level recorded at the beginning of the year.
Trading growth has supported investor interest
Financial Times reported that Kalshi’s rapid expansion has been driven by rising activity across prediction markets tied to sports, politics, financial markets, and entertainment.
Company figures show that Kalshi processed more than $17 billion in trading volume last month, up from less than $5 billion during the same period a year earlier. During its May fundraising announcement, the company said annualized trading volume had reached $178 billion, more than three times the level recorded six months before.
Sports-related contracts remain the platform’s largest category, accounting for about 65% of total volume, according to company data. Multi-outcome combination contracts introduced last year have also become one of Kalshi’s fastest-growing products.
Recent product launches have extended the company’s reach beyond event markets. Earlier on June 24, Kalshi expanded its Commodity Futures Trading Commission-regulated crypto perpetual futures lineup by adding contracts tied to Zcash, Near Protocol, and Shiba Inu. The additions increased the number of supported digital assets to 13, with the contracts operating without expiration dates under a structure approved by the CFTC.
Legal disputes continue across multiple fronts
While pursuing new funding, Kalshi remains involved in several legal and regulatory battles linked to its products.
A recent dispute emerged after the company launched cryptocurrency perpetual futures following approval from the CFTC. CME Group subsequently sued the regulator, arguing that the products should be classified as swaps and subjected to a different regulatory review process.
Elsewhere, state-level challenges continue to target Kalshi’s event contracts. Arizona filed criminal charges against the company in March, alleging that it operated without a gambling license and offered prohibited election-related contracts.
Separately, a Massachusetts judge ordered Kalshi to stop offering sports-related contracts in the state unless it obtains a local gaming license.
Kalshi has contested those actions and maintains that its event contracts fall under the exclusive jurisdiction of the federal derivatives regulator. As the company seeks another major funding round, the ongoing court cases are unfolding alongside its push into new markets and the rapid growth of its trading business.
Key takeaways:
- Cooling oil prices and a multi-month high for the US dollar are keeping intense pressure on non yield-bearing assets.
- Spot Bitcoin ETF outflows paired with Strategy’s slowest buying pace in 18 months signal short-term downside risks.
Bitcoin (BTC) traded down to $59,060 on Wednesday despite the sharp retreat in oil prices. Inflationary pressures eased following a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, which temporarily reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Bitcoin traders fear that the bounce back to $60,000 might not last long as the US dollar strengthened.
US dollar strength index (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView
The US dollar jumped to its highest level against a basket of foreign currencies in 13 months, indicating growing confidence in the US economy. Typically, this metric shows a negative correlation with Bitcoin’s price, as some investors view the cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflationary pressures traditionally driven by high oil prices.
Gold (left) vs. Brent Crude oil, USD. Source: TradingView
Gold prices fell below $4,000 for the first time in 7 months as Brent crude oil plummeted below $74, nearing levels seen prior to the conflict in Iran. Investors signaled lower demand for scarce assets despite moderate anxiety about tech-sector cash flows amid increased capital expenditure by AI hyperscalers.
Bitcoin investment thesis weakened by reduced inflation perspectives and AI sector growth
Inflation will take time to cool down to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) target of 2%, leading traders to anticipate interest rates remaining higher for longer, which ultimately favors fixed-income investments. The latest US Labor Department unemployment benefit claims data fell by 4,000 from the prior week, further confirming that the economy is not slowing.
US expanded Monetary Base (M2), USD. Source: Fed St Louis
Regardless of investors’ risk assessments of the profitability of AI infrastructure investments, US government debt has been driving up liquidity over the past 3 years. Data released on Tuesday revealed that the US expanded Monetary Base (M2) increased to $23.05 trillion in May, up from $22.8 trillion the prior month.
Related: Lyn Alden tips Bitcoin outperforming gold over next ‘two to three years’
While there is no short-term correlation between the amount of money in circulation and Bitcoin’s price, investors will eventually seek gains elsewhere if higher demand for fixed income causes diminished yields. For now, the tech sector remains investors’ largest bet, weakening the case for alternative scarce assets such as Bitcoin.
Micron (MU US), the computer memory and data storage manufacturer, reported strong quarterly earnings on Wednesday. Micron’s market capitalization has grown to $1.16 trillion, following a 265% gain over 6 months. More impressively, chipmakers SK Hynix and Samsung now account for 40% of the entire South Korean stock market, according to CNBC.
Strategy (MSTR US) Bitcoin reserve changes, BTC. Source: Strategy
The slowdown in Strategy’s Bitcoin acquisition pace has likely contributed to the weaker market sentiment. The company, led by Michael Saylor, reported adding 520 BTC during the week ending June 21, marking its lowest weekly intake in 18 months. Moreover, $300 million of the net proceeds from MSTR’s stock issuance during the period were used to replenish its cash position.
Bitcoin’s negative performance on Wednesday partly reflects macroeconomic conditions, with gold prices also affected. However, heavy net outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and disappointment that Strategy’s stock trades below its Bitcoin reserve acquisition cost have added significant pressure. Thus, further downside from the $59,000 level should not be ruled out.
Coatue Management founder Philippe Laffont says artificial intelligence (AI) and space now offer clearer bets than Bitcoin (BTC). He told CNBC he is increasingly unsure what to make of the asset.
The billionaire investor argued that picking a future $10 trillion company is easier than predicting Bitcoin’s path. He sees that debate as more solvable than Bitcoin’s long-run role.
Why the Coatue Founder Is Cooling on Bitcoin
Laffont built Coatue in 1999 after training under Julian Robertson at Tiger Management. That pedigree gives his cooling stance added weight.
Speaking on CNBC, he said scarce IPOs once funneled speculative money into Bitcoin. That is changing. Fresh listings and a fast-growing stablecoin payments boom now offer rival outlets for risk.
The timing stings. Bitcoin trades near $60,000, about half its record high near $126,000, while AI and space valuations climb.
“I don’t know what to think about Bitcoin anymore,” Philippe Laffont said in the interview.
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The Case for a $10 Trillion Company
Laffont’s math is simple. He said global market value could grow from about $120 trillion to $200 trillion. A single company at a 5% share would then be worth $10 trillion.
The candidates are forming. Nvidia (NVDA), the chip maker driving the AI boom, sits near $5 trillion. SpaceX priced the biggest IPO on record this month at $1.77 trillion, and its shares jumped 19% on debut.
Privately held Anthropic is valued at $965 billion, and OpenAI at $852 billion. Each is closing in on the roughly $1.2 trillion value of all Bitcoin.
This is not idle talk. Coatue and his brother Thomas led an earlier Anthropic round worth $380 billion and joined its latest raise. The fund also backs OpenAI.
The comments land as Wall Street continues to debate where capital flows next. Some buyers still argue that Bitcoin remains too small for institutions.
Not everyone shares his caution. BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager, still recommends a small Bitcoin allocation for diversification.
Bitcoin’s ability to hold its value proposition while money chases AI and space is now the open question. For now, Laffont says he would rather bet elsewhere.
The post AI and Space Offer Better Bets Than Bitcoin, Billionaire Philippe Laffont Says appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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