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Altcoin Sell Pressure Reaches 5-Year Extreme After 13 Months of Continuous Distribution

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

    • Altcoin sell pressure on CEX spot markets has reached its highest extreme in over five years of data.
    • Cumulative buy and sell volume for altcoins has trended negative for 13 consecutive months without relief.
    • No institutional accumulation patterns are visible in current altcoin spot flow data across exchanges.
    • Capital appears to be rotating into Bitcoin or cash, leaving altcoin order books thin and highly vulnerable.

 

Altcoin sell pressure has reached a five-year extreme, according to recent on-chain and exchange flow data. 

For over 13 consecutive months, altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum have recorded net selling on centralized exchange spot markets. 

Analysts warn this is not a routine correction. The data points to a structural shift in how capital is moving across the crypto market, raising serious questions about the timeline for any altcoin recovery.

Cumulative Sell Volume Signals No Signs of Absorption

The cumulative buy and sell volume difference for altcoins has collapsed to levels last seen five years ago. 

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This metric, which tracks net buying versus selling activity on spot markets, has moved in one direction throughout the period. 

There has been no meaningful flattening or stabilization in the data. Bounces have been consistently sold into, and breakout attempts have lacked any real follow-through from buyers.

Market analyst account Our Crypto Talk flagged the chart on X noting that even the 2022 bear market did not produce this kind of sustained one-sided pressure. The account wrote that sellers are “overwhelming buyers month after month” with no base forming. 

That context makes the current situation historically unusual, not just uncomfortable for bag holders. The absence of any accumulation curve is what separates this period from prior downturns.

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Tokens such as LINK, KAS, ONDO, RENDER, TAO, SUI, and SEI have all lost substantial value from their cycle highs. 

Holders of these assets are down significantly, with some tokens trading more than 90% below peak prices. 

A kind of drawdown, sustained over more than a year, reflects broader structural selling rather than temporary volatility. It also suggests that retail participants have largely stepped back from active buying.

Order books across major altcoins have thinned considerably during this period. Liquidity has dried up, making price movements more volatile in both directions. However, the net effect remains persistently negative. Until measurable buying pressure returns, each rally attempt remains vulnerable to selling.

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Capital Rotation Away From Altcoins Raises Questions on Altseason Timing

Capital currently appears to be rotating toward Bitcoin, cash positions, or assets outside the crypto market entirely. No observable data suggests quiet institutional accumulation in altcoin spot markets at this time. 

When serious capital enters a market, volume patterns shift, and cumulative flows stabilize. That pattern is absent here.

Our Crypto Talk stated directly that “the idea that alts will randomly explode any day now without flow confirmation is just hope.” That framing reflects what the flow data currently shows. 

Watching cumulative delta and waiting for absorption is the approach the data supports. Premature calls for altseason are not grounded in the present market structure.

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Risk management during a confirmed distribution phase looks different from positioning during accumulation. Traders anchored to previous cycle highs may be misreading current conditions. 

The data, not sentiment, should guide positioning decisions right now. Until flows reverse, the distribution narrative remains the one the market is telling.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Rally To $75K Still Possible Despite Huge Macro Challenges

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Bitcoin Rally To $75K Still Possible Despite Huge Macro Challenges

Key takeaways:

  • Private credit risks and weak US jobs market data drive Bitcoin lower, but is there a silver lining?

  • Institutional Bitcoin ETF outflows and miner sales test BTC’s strength, but the Federal Reserve’s options for addressing the federal deficit may also favor scarce assets.

Bitcoin (BTC) faced rejection at $69,000 on Wednesday after President Donald Trump’s speech failed to guarantee an end to the war in Iran. Oil prices soared following the speech and beyond traders’ war-related worries, tumult in the private credit markets is also taking a toll on investor confidence across multiple markets.

While Bitcoin has successfully defended the $66,000 level throughout the week, traders remain concerned about downside risk over the upcoming weekend, as US and European markets will be closed on Friday for Easter.

Crude WTI oil (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

The threat of additional US-led military action in Iran caused WTI crude oil prices to rally above $110, triggering a move away from risky assets. Traders chose to cut their exposure to Bitcoin and stocks as the US Treasury Department expressed concerns regarding the $2 trillion private credit markets on Wednesday. Domestic and international insurance regulators will be surveyed through early May.

Private credit markets sound the alarm: Will BTC respond?

Blue Owl, a $307 billion alternative asset manager, announced “extraordinary redemption requests” for two of its private credit funds in shareholder letters issued Thursday. Over 70% of the companies Blue Owl lends to are in the software industry, as reported during a quarterly earnings call. The fund manager capped withdrawal requests at 5%, adding fresh concerns to the credit market.

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Adding to the short-term bearish sentiment among traders was a surge in US continuing jobless claims, which rose to 1.84 million for the week ending March 21, up from 1.82 million the week prior. This data is not inherently negative for equities; however, as the global outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas noted, most layoffs originated from companies “shifting budgets toward AI investments at the expense of jobs.”

US federal gross debt, USD trillions (left) vs. percentage of GDP (right). Source: crfb.org

The odds of economic stimulus initiatives amid weakening economic activity could ultimately support Bitcoin’s price in the medium term. The US federal deficit is expected to reach a massive $1.9 trillion in 2026, leaving little room to maneuver other than injecting liquidity, which tends to benefit scarce assets.

An improvement in the risk perception of Bitcoin will be decisive for a potential rally above $75,000. There has been a considerable negative impact from net outflows from US-listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the liquidation of positions held by companies that previously focused on building corporate reserves, and the unwinding by publicly listed miners.

US-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs daily net flows, USD. Source: Farside Investors

US-listed Bitcoin ETFs have seen $450 million in net outflows since March 24, which serves as a proxy for weak institutional demand. Traders fear further selling pressure because the industry holds $88 billion in Bitcoin under management, with BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT US) leading at $53.9 billion. However, these outflows should slow if Bitcoin continues to show strength near $66,000.

Related: Bitcoin hits weekly low on oil fears as analyst teases $10K BTC price target

MARA Holdings (MARA US) announced the sale of 15,133 BTC in March at a price far below the company’s estimated cost basis. Meanwhile, Riot Platforms (RIOT US) reportedly transferred 500 BTC for sale on Wednesday. Additionally, Nakamoto Holdings (NAKA US) disclosed a sale of 284 BTC, despite having previously announced its intention to continue accumulating the asset.

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As long as companies such as Strategy (MSTR US) and Metaplanet (MTPLF US) continue to absorb some of this selling pressure, investors will likely recognize that Bitcoin serves as a safeguard against increasing money supply. Governments will do everything possible to avoid a recession, raising the odds that Bitcoin’s path to $75,000 stays firmly in play despite worsening macroeconomic conditions.