Bitcoin has been projected to reach $150,000 by mid-2027 and climb toward $300,000 in 2029 under Bernstein’s base-case forecast.

Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said in an Aug. 26 client note that Bitcoin could recover to around $125,000 by the end of 2026 before setting a record near $150,000 in mid-2027.

The Wall Street research firm expects the asset to maintain its historical four-year cycle under its base case. Using a model tied to Bitcoin’s marginal production cost, the analysts placed the next cycle peak at approximately $300,000 in 2029.

Although the projection assumes Bitcoin follows its established market cycle, Bernstein presented a second path in which institutional demand and concerns about government debt accelerate the price increase. Under the more bullish scenario, BTC could reach $200,000 by mid-2027 and $500,000 in 2029.

Bernstein also retained its longer-term forecast of $1 million by the end of 2033. Each figure represents an analyst projection rather than a guaranteed price path.

Bitcoin price forecast rests on institutional ownership

Institutional access through U.S.-listed spot exchange-traded funds forms one part of Bernstein’s forecast. The firm said ETF participation and corporate treasury purchases may have helped limit Bitcoin’s latest decline compared with the much deeper losses recorded in previous cycles.

During earlier downturns, Bitcoin fell between 75% and 90% from its cycle highs, according to the analysts. Its latest decline reached about 50% from the October 2025 peak before BTC rebounded 28% over 10 days.

Ownership data cited in the note showed that approximately 59% of Bitcoin’s supply had not moved during the previous 12 months. Bernstein viewed the large inactive balance as evidence of a holder base willing to retain the asset through major price swings.

Recent U.S. fund flows have offered additional evidence of returning institutional participation. On Aug. 21, crypto.news reported that ETF inflows accelerated as Bitcoin moved above $76,000 for the first time since late May.

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted approximately $606 million on Aug. 20 after receiving $517 million the day before, according to SoSoValue data cited in the report. The two sessions produced more than $1.1 billion in combined net inflows while Bitcoin advanced from the low-$60,000 range.

Part of the rally came from traders closing leveraged bearish positions. CoinGlass data showed that almost $3 billion in crypto positions were liquidated as BTC crossed $70,000, with shorts accounting for most of the losses. Continued ETF purchases provided spot demand after the initial wave of forced buying.

Currency debasement could speed up Bitcoin’s rally

Rising government debt creates a second part of Bernstein’s bullish case. The analysts said the 40-year period of declining interest rates has ended while U.S. sovereign debt has reached $40 trillion, increasing the cost of servicing federal obligations.

“Rising yields create a self-reinforcing cycle of higher interest expenses, larger fiscal deficits, and increased borrowing needs,” the analysts said.

According to Bernstein, policymakers may respond to rising fiscal pressure through currency debasement instead of stricter spending measures. The firm said such an outcome could direct more capital toward assets with limited supply, including Bitcoin and gold.

Bitcoin’s programmed supply is capped at 21 million coins. Bernstein said its scarcity, cross-border accessibility, and growing institutional ownership strengthen its position as a hard asset when investors are concerned about the purchasing power of government-issued currencies.

Trading activity in U.S. investment products has begun to show interest in the debasement trade, according to Bloomberg senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust and State Street’s SPDR Gold Shares recently returned to the 10 most-traded U.S. ETFs, replacing some semiconductor products that had led activity during the summer.

Access to IBIT has also expanded for large Bitcoin holders. BlackRock lowered the minimum eligible Bitcoin-to-ETF conversion from $25 million to $1 million in July, a 96% reduction, as detailed in an Aug. 26 report on its lower conversion threshold.

Robbie Mitchnick, BlackRock’s head of digital assets, told Bloomberg that IBIT had processed more than $5 billion of such conversions. The total had stood near $3 billion in October.

Eligible holders use an intermediary to transfer Bitcoin into the ETF structure and receive shares carrying comparable exposure. Such transactions move existing BTC into the fund and should not be treated as new cash inflows.

BlackRock’s fund page showed IBIT holding about $60.65 billion in net assets as of Aug. 25. Ordinary U.S. investors can buy or sell its shares through Nasdaq without taking part in the creation process, while only authorized participants can create or redeem shares directly with the trust.

Bernstein cuts Strategy target despite Outperform rating

Alongside its Bitcoin forecast, Bernstein maintained an Outperform rating on Strategy but lowered its MSTR price target from $450 to $350. The analysts attributed the reduction to their revised Bitcoin cycle model and faster equity dilution.

The new target represented about 176% upside from Strategy’s $126.83 closing price on Aug. 25. Strategy remains the largest publicly disclosed corporate Bitcoin holder, with 840,447 BTC, or roughly 4% of the asset’s maximum supply.

Bernstein estimated that the company’s strengthened balance sheet provided about 3.9 years of cash coverage for annual interest costs and preferred-stock dividends. Continued Bitcoin gains and a recovery in Strategy’s STRC preferred shares toward their $100 reference value could allow the company to resume aggressive BTC purchases, according to the analysts.

Strategy raised approximately $2 billion from common-stock sales during the week ended Aug. 23 but bought no Bitcoin. A recent filing showed that the company added $300 million to its U.S. dollar reserve and spent $136.4 million repurchasing about 1.43 million STRC shares, as covered in a report on its latest capital raise.

Following the transactions, Strategy’s dollar reserve stood at about $5.1 billion. Its Bitcoin balance remained unchanged at 840,447 BTC, acquired for $63.36 billion at an average cost of $75,385 per coin, including fees and expenses.

Strategy reached its current balance after selling part of its treasury during the summer. Between June 29 and July 5, the company sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million to fund distributions on its preferred securities and replenish cash previously used from its reserve.

Another sale between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9 removed 1,690 BTC from the treasury and generated approximately $108.6 million. Strategy directed the proceeds toward repurchasing around 1.15 million STRC shares.

Bitcoin dips as derivatives traders reduce exposure

Bitcoin traded near $78,458 on Aug. 26, down about 1% over 24 hours but still up nearly 14% during the previous seven days. Its intraday range stretched from approximately $77,648 to $79,319.

The pullback followed July U.S. inflation data. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 3.7% from a year earlier, slightly above the 3.6% estimate reported by The Wall Street Journal.

U.S. equity futures weakened after the release, while Treasury yields moved higher. CoinGlass data cited in the original report showed Bitcoin futures open interest falling 2.7% over 24 hours to $54.8 billion, with open interest on CME and Binance each declining by nearly 1% over four hours.

Prediction-market traders remained optimistic about another advance before year-end. A Polymarket contract gave Bitcoin a 68% probability of reaching $85,000 by Dec. 31, 2026, although the odds can change as participants enter or exit their positions.

A new survey from the National Institute on Retirement Security (NIRS) finds that most Americans remain wary of including cryptocurrency in workplace retirement plans. The research comes as U.S. policymakers work to broaden the range of alternative assets available in 401(k) and other defined-contribution plans—potentially placing crypto more directly in retirement-savings conversations.

According to the NIRS survey, 77% of Americans view cryptocurrency included in workplace retirement plans as risky, with 46% describing it as “very risky.” In parallel, 53% oppose employers offering crypto as an investment option.

Key takeaways

• 77% of respondents say crypto exposure in workplace retirement plans is risky, including 46% who call it very risky.
• 53% oppose employers adding crypto to retirement plan investment lineups.
• Concerns about retirement security are rising: 80% say the U.S. faces a retirement crisis, up from 67% in 2020.
• Debt and affordability pressures persist: 77% say debt blocks them from saving adequately.
• Regulatory direction is shifting: multiple federal actions have moved away from prior “extreme care” language and toward a framework that may facilitate alternative-asset inclusion.

Survey signals distrust even as retirement pressures mount

The NIRS report ties its crypto findings to broader anxieties about retirement outcomes. 80% of survey respondents said the U.S. faces a retirement crisis—an increase from 67% in 2020—while 61% said they are concerned about achieving financial security in retirement.

Affordability challenges also appear central to the survey’s picture. The research reports that 68% say it is becoming harder to prepare for retirement, and 77% say debt prevents them from saving enough. In that context, investor protection and risk tolerance are likely to remain key fault lines for any plan sponsors considering crypto-like exposures.

The survey was conducted by Greenwald Research between Oct. 24 and Nov. 14, 2025, surveying 1,203 Americans aged 25 and older. Results were weighted by age, gender, and income.

From “extreme care” to neutrality: a policy pivot

While public opinion in the NIRS survey skews negative toward crypto in employer retirement plans, regulatory posture has been moving in the other direction. The NIRS report points to changes under the Trump administration and federal regulators aimed at expanding access to alternative assets in defined-contribution plans.

One turning point came when the U.S. Department of Labor rescinded guidance from May 2025 that had urged 401(k) plan fiduciaries to exercise “extreme care” when considering cryptocurrency investments. In its place, the Department of Labor returned to a neutral approach that neither endorses nor discourages crypto as an investment option.

The policy shift accelerated further after Aug. 7, 2025, when President Donald Trump signed an executive order intended to “democratize access to alternative assets for 401(k) investors.” The order calls for expanding access to alternative assets in defined-contribution retirement plans, including those carried by investment vehicles that hold digital assets, while directing the Labor Department and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to consider regulatory changes.

Labor Department guidance continues to broaden the door

Following the executive order, the Department of Labor also rescinded earlier language. A few days later, it rescinded a 2021 guidance document that had discouraged 401(k) fiduciaries from considering alternative assets, saying investment decisions should instead be assessed through a neutral, principles-based framework.

More recently, the Department of Labor has moved from rescinding older guidance toward outlining how fiduciaries could evaluate alternative assets within plan lineups. In March 2026, it proposed rules describing how 401(k) fiduciaries could include alternative assets—again, with the stated goal of providing structures that reduce litigation risk. The proposal would require fiduciaries to consider factors such as fees, liquidity, valuation, and performance.

Still, the debate is far from settled. The NIRS report notes pushback from lawmakers, including Sens. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren and Rep. Bobby Scott, who urged the Department of Labor in June to withdraw the proposal. Their objections, as described in earlier coverage from Cointelegraph, cite crypto’s volatility and argue that safeguards for investors are insufficient.

Why the divide matters for retirement investors

The NIRS survey and the ongoing regulatory shift point to a significant mismatch between how Americans perceive crypto risk and how the regulatory framework may evolve around retirement-plan menus.

For plan sponsors and fiduciaries, this gap is likely to shape how proposals land with employers, participants, and policymakers. Even if rules become clearer about what diligence should look like, the core question for retirement consumers is whether crypto exposures align with retirement risk tolerance—especially when the same survey shows many Americans are already struggling with affordability and debt constraints.

For participants, the next phase to watch is whether proposed Labor Department rules finalize in a way that meaningfully changes what employers can offer, and how regulators address the specific concerns raised by lawmakers—particularly around volatility, liquidity, and valuation transparency.

As NIRS data underscores, public skepticism is high; the coming regulatory decisions and any resulting plan changes will therefore be tested not only by legal standards, but by whether they can earn participant trust in the context of retirement security.

Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] have asked the CFTC to permit regulated perpetual contracts tied to WTI crude, Brent crude, and Henry Hub natural gas after their markets recorded more than $500 billion in cumulative volume.

Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] said in an Aug. 26 joint filing that U.S. regulators can bring energy perpetual contracts into regulated markets without waiting for new legislation.

Submitted in response to a Commodity Futures Trading Commission review, the letter calls for a legal path covering contracts linked to West Texas Intermediate crude, Brent crude, and Henry Hub natural gas. trade[XYZ], the first major third-party market deployer on Hyperliquid, has offered such products since October 2025.

Its markets have generated more than $500 billion in cumulative trading volume, according to the filing, which cited Bloomberg. The figure covers several asset classes available through trade[XYZ], including its energy products.

Unlike dated futures, perpetual contracts do not expire. Traders instead make recurring funding payments designed to keep each contract close to the price of its reference asset, allowing a position to remain open without being transferred into a new delivery month.

Energy perpetuals could fill weekend hedging gaps

Continuous access formed a central part of the groups’ case, particularly when geopolitical events moved oil prices while established U.S. futures venues were closed.

After conflict in the Middle East disrupted energy exports on Feb. 28, airlines, refiners and fund managers with crude exposure could not change their positions through regulated U.S. futures markets until trading resumed on Sunday evening, the filing said. Oil-linked perpetual contracts on Hyperliquid continued operating through the weekend.

According to the groups, about two-thirds of the oil price change between Friday’s close and the benchmark’s Sunday reopening had already occurred in the onchain market. Brent later reached nearly $120 per barrel by March 9, while jet fuel prices doubled within weeks, according to news reports cited in the filing.

Research published by Hyperliquid Policy Center also compared crude perpetual prices with the benchmark’s later reopening level. Across nearly 75% of the weekend closures studied, the perpetual contract finished closer to Sunday’s opening price than the benchmark’s previous Friday close.

The same study found no statistically measurable decline in the quality of CME WTI reopening prices after trade[XYZ] launched its crude contract, according to the filing. Hyperliquid Policy Center used the finding to argue that perpetuals can trade alongside dated futures without weakening the established benchmark.

Dated futures would remain useful for companies that need physical settlement, exposure to a particular delivery month, or positions based on the shape of the futures curve. Perpetuals, by comparison, could serve participants seeking continuous price exposure without regularly rolling a contract into its next expiry.

Contract size could also affect access. The filing noted that one benchmark WTI futures contract covers 1,000 barrels, representing around $70,000 in notional exposure at recent prices, while the median off-hours crude trade on trade[XYZ was about $1,300.

In May, an oil-perpetual partnership between Intercontinental Exchange and OKX showed that established market operators were also examining round-the-clock energy products. ICE agreed to license its Brent and WTI prices for perpetual contracts offered by OKX in selected markets outside the United States.

CFTC review has opened a US regulatory path

The CFTC requested public comments in June on two connected issues: extending standard energy futures to continuous trading and listing perpetual contracts tied to physical or storable energy commodities.

Its review covers reference-price reliability, manipulation risks, surveillance, position limits, margin, clearing, customer safeguards, and possible effects on physical energy markets. After adding questions and receiving requests for more time, the agency extended the submission deadline to Aug. 26.

CFTC Chair Michael Selig said the agency needed a “clear, data-driven record” as regulated entities considered longer trading hours and new contract designs. The commission has not approved energy perpetuals, and the public consultation does not guarantee that it will authorize them.

A regulated route already exists for some digital-asset products. As crypto.news reported in May, the CFTC approved Kalshi’s Bitcoin perpetual as the first federally regulated contract of its kind in the United States.

The approval treated Kalshi’s non-expiring product as a futures contract, although the CFTC limited its analysis to that contract and similarly structured products referencing digital commodities with deep and continuously active spot markets. Energy products require separate consideration because crude oil and natural gas have physical markets, delivery systems, and benchmarks that operate differently from Bitcoin.

Hyperliquid Policy Center has also sought an equity framework from the CFTC and the Securities and Exchange Commission. In an Aug. 24 submission, the group argued that qualifying equity perpetuals should be treated as security futures when they carry the established features of futures contracts.

Onchain systems would support continuous operations

For energy contracts, the latest filing asks the CFTC to adopt a technology-neutral framework rather than require a particular market structure. Exchanges and clearinghouses would need to demonstrate compliance with existing CFTC core principles before operating continuously.

Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] said onchain systems can run trading, margin checks, clearing, settlement, and surveillance at all hours. Under trade[XYZ]’s model, positions are funded in advance, while margin is recalculated with each transaction rather than waiting for a scheduled settlement period.

According to the filing, standard order-book liquidations have handled 97.9% of all notional volume liquidated across trade[XYZ] markets. Predefined backstop and tail-loss processes covered the remainder.

Because transactions, margin changes and liquidations appear on a public ledger, the groups said regulated operators could conduct real-time surveillance without adding separate reporting requirements for every market participant. Any U.S. operator would still have to meet applicable rules on market integrity, customer protection, and recordkeeping.

A July data integration added Hyperliquid and trade[XYZ] prices to TradingView, allowing users to monitor onchain markets covering commodities, equities, foreign exchange and crypto outside standard exchange hours.

Stablecoins could provide weekend margin

The filing also asks the CFTC to recognize eligible stablecoins and tokenized traditional assets as margin for cleared derivatives. Unlike transfers through banks that close on weekends, blockchain-based collateral can move while a continuous market remains open.

Current CFTC policy already permits certain digital assets in some cleared derivatives transactions. Under the agency’s crypto collateral pilot, participating futures commission merchants may accept Bitcoin, Ether and qualifying stablecoins, subject to reporting, capital and risk-management requirements.

Hyperliquid Policy Center and trade[XYZ] want the commission to clarify how such treatment would apply to energy markets. Their proposal does not call for crypto collateral in uncleared swaps, which remain outside the existing pilot.

Along with collateral rules, the groups proposed leverage limits set according to the asset class and plain-language disclosures explaining funding payments and liquidation processes. Market-integrity measures would also have to address price manipulation and the reliability of reference benchmarks during periods when physical energy markets are inactive.

Several CFTC requirements are written around conventional operating hours, including deadlines tied to the next “business day.” The filing asks the regulator to explain how such terms would apply when an exchange, clearing system, and collateral network continue running through nights, weekends, and holidays.

The final request calls for regulated operators to use onchain infrastructure for execution, margin, clearing, settlement, and recordkeeping whenever the systems satisfy existing CFTC core principles.

Wall Street research firm Bernstein is forecasting a rebound in Bitcoin, arguing that the recent selloff could mark the transition away from the current bear phase and toward a new advance driven by institutional and corporate participation.

In a research report published Wednesday and seen by Cointelegraph, Bernstein expects Bitcoin to retake its 2025 high and push into fresh cycle highs over the next several years, with targets ranging from $125,000 by late 2026 to as high as $500,000 by the end of the decade under a bull case.

Key takeaways

• Bernstein expects Bitcoin to recover toward $125,000 by late 2026, positioning that level as a milestone tied to the firm’s cycle framework.
• The base case targets $150,000 by mid-2027 and a cycle peak of about $300,000 in 2029; the bull case ranges up to $500,000 in 2029.
• Bernstein maintains a longer-term Bitcoin target of roughly $1 million by 2033 in both scenarios.
• The firm links the forecast to Bitcoin’s historical four-year cycle phases and to the relationship between price and miners’ marginal production costs.
• Bernstein’s view is also intended to support its outlook on Strategy (the largest corporate Bitcoin holder), suggesting stronger conditions could enable further BTC accumulation.

Why Bernstein thinks the downturn is nearing an end

Bernstein’s argument is rooted in Bitcoin’s historical cycle behavior. The firm said Bitcoin gained 28% over the preceding 10 days after falling roughly 50% from its October 2025 peak, a rebound it says could indicate the end of the present bear cycle.

The report also points to changes in the market’s participant mix. Bernstein said institutional investors and corporate Bitcoin buyers have been playing a larger role, which it argues has provided greater downside support than in earlier cycles. As a result, it cited a smaller drawdown than the roughly 75% to 90% declines seen in previous turnarounds.

For investors, that matters because the cycle thesis implies the timing and character of drawdowns may not repeat identically. Bernstein is not only forecasting higher prices—it is also asserting that the depth of weakness may be structurally different when large, persistent buyers are part of the backdrop.

Cycle-based targets: from $125,000 to as high as $500,000

Bernstein’s pricing model is built on Bitcoin’s historical four-year cadence, which the firm ties to the halving event that reduces the amount of new BTC awarded to miners approximately every four years.

In its framework, each cycle is split into four phases: breakout, hype, drawdown, and accumulation. Bernstein then estimates likely price levels across those phases by comparing Bitcoin’s market pricing to the estimated marginal cost of producing new coins—specifically, the cost for the least efficient miners to mine Bitcoin.

Under the base case, Bernstein expects:

• Bitcoin to reach $125,000 by late 2026
• $150,000 by mid-2027
• about $300,000 at a cycle peak in 2029

Under the bull case, the firm raises the targets to:

• $200,000 by mid-2027
• $500,000 at a cycle peak in 2029

Bernstein also maintained a long-term target of about $1 million by 2033 under both scenarios.

How marginal production costs are folded into the forecast

Central to Bernstein’s approach is an assumption about the “price-to-marginal cost multiple,” meaning how many times Bitcoin’s price trades relative to miners’ estimated marginal production costs.

The firm said it expects that multiple to behave similarly to previous four-year cycles. In its base-case path, Bernstein projected the multiple falling from 1.4 times at a 2025 peak around $125,000 to roughly 1.25 times at a projected 2029 peak around $300,000, and to about 1.2 times by the $1 million mark in 2033.

This is a key nuance for readers: the forecast doesn’t rely only on generic “cycle hype” or momentum. It attempts to formalize the relationship between network economics and market pricing, which—if the assumptions hold—can help explain why the firm expects higher peaks even as valuation multiples compress over time.

Still, that compression is an assumption. Traders and long-term holders watching this thesis may want to track whether market conditions allow marginal-cost dynamics to remain a meaningful reference point, especially if demand growth, regulatory changes, or changes in miner behavior alter cost structures.

Strategy’s potential to buy more Bitcoin if prices firm up

Bernstein’s report also ties its Bitcoin recovery expectations to Strategy, describing a scenario in which continued strength could improve conditions for additional BTC purchases.

The firm noted that Strategy holds 840,447 BTC, representing about 4% of Bitcoin’s maximum supply of 21 million coins. Bernstein maintained an “Outperform” rating on the company but adjusted its MSTR price target down to $350 from $450, citing accelerated equity dilution and its updated view of the Bitcoin cycle.

Bernstein said that if Bitcoin stays strong—and if Strategy’s Stream (STRC) preferred stock recovers to around $100 (STRC was reported at $97.15 on Tuesday)—the firm believes Strategy could “go kinetic again” with additional Bitcoin buying. Bernstein pointed to a selloff of about 7,000 BTC in 2026 as part of its broader framework.

At the same time, Bernstein’s view is not only about upside. The report referenced analysis from Regime Intelligence arguing that Strategy’s Bitcoin treasury may be less threatened by a market crash than by a prolonged loss of capital-market access. That risk, Regime Intelligence said, could impair Strategy’s ability to fund roughly $1.76 billion in annual obligations without selling BTC.

Put differently, Bernstein is effectively forecasting that the next leg up could improve Strategy’s operational flexibility—but that access to funding channels could still determine how aggressively corporate buyers add to their holdings.

What to watch next

Bernstein’s model puts major milestones—$125,000 in late 2026 and substantially higher cycle targets later—at the center of its thesis. Investors should watch whether Bitcoin’s rebound broadens into sustained strength rather than a short-lived rally, and whether corporate buyers like Strategy can continue adding BTC without being constrained by financing conditions and dilution pressures.

Six long-dormant Bitcoin wallets have transferred 553.59 BTC worth $40.15 million after remaining inactive for periods ranging from nearly 12 years to more than 15 years.

Galaxy Research tracked the six movements from wallets dating to 2011, 2012, and 2014, although blockchain records do not reveal who controlled most of the addresses or why the owners transferred their holdings.

Five transfers went to addresses without known exchange links, offering no on-chain evidence that the Bitcoin was sold. The final transaction sent 40 BTC to an address labeled Boerse Stuttgart Digital, a German provider of crypto custody and trading infrastructure.

Bitcoin wallets move 553 BTC over 10 days

Beginning on Aug. 16, the first wallet transferred 8.54 BTC in block 962,770 after remaining inactive since June 13, 2011. Galaxy valued the holdings at about $538,000 when they moved, compared with an estimated acquisition price of around $14 per coin.

Using the difference between the historical and transfer prices, the holdings had gained about 461,981%. The figure represents an unrealized return unless the owner sold the coins, which the blockchain transaction does not establish.

Two days later, a wallet last active on Aug. 10, 2012, transferred 212 BTC worth approximately $13.66 million. The address carried the label “Noah Doe #1396 · Salomon Client Dusted,” connecting it to a New York lawsuit involving thousands of dormant Bitcoin addresses.

At an estimated historical price of $12 per BTC, the 212 BTC position had risen by roughly 557,640% when it moved. No public label identified the receiving address as an exchange or trading platform.

Hours after the 212 BTC transaction, another early holder moved 10.74 BTC. The coins had remained in place since June 17, 2011, and were worth about $692,000 at the time of the transfer. Neither side of the transaction had a public identity label.

Dormant-wallet activity resumed on Aug. 22, when two large transfers occurred within about two hours. One address moved 150 BTC worth $11.75 million after sitting inactive since Dec. 26, 2014.

Galaxy labeled the wallet “Noah Doe #1680,” making it the second address in the group connected to the New York case. Based on Bitcoin’s price when the address became inactive, the holdings had appreciated by an estimated 23,701%.

Three 2011 addresses move $10.37 million

Later on Aug. 22, a cluster of three addresses dating to 2011 transferred a combined 132.31 BTC in block 963,519. Galaxy valued the transaction at approximately $10.37 million.

The address beginning “1EG5DvjR” moved Bitcoin valued at $4.45 million, representing a potential gain of about 629,068%. A second address, beginning “1928FWqd,” transferred roughly $404,000 of BTC after its estimated value rose by 625,826%.

A third address, beginning “1EBzWeno,” accounted for $5.51 million of the total. Galaxy calculated that the holdings had appreciated by approximately 807,639%, based on an estimated original Bitcoin price of about $10.

On Aug. 26, the sixth wallet sent 40 BTC in block 964,127 after remaining inactive since May 28, 2012. The transaction occurred at 10:54 UTC and directed the holdings to an address labeled Boerse Stuttgart Digital.

Although the sender remains unidentified, the destination makes the movement different from the other five transfers, which went to addresses without public entity labels. The transfer to a custody provider does not by itself show whether the owner planned to sell, change custodians, or reorganize the holdings.

Galaxy estimated a cost basis near $5 per Bitcoin for the 40 BTC position. At the transfer price, its value had increased by approximately 1,535,911%, the largest percentage gain among the six wallets.

Large movements from old Bitcoin addresses have occurred repeatedly in 2026. On Aug. 20, 28 dormant wallets transferred 1,314.41 BTC worth $94.03 million, including 1,214.42 BTC from addresses created in 2014.

Earlier in July, a separate wallet transferred 5,908 BTC worth about $383 million after more than eight years without activity. The coins went to a new address rather than a publicly labeled exchange wallet.

New York case challenges dormant Bitcoin ownership

Two of the latest six wallets appear in a New York Supreme Court case brought by a pseudonymous plaintiff identified as Noah Doe and two Wyoming entities.

The lawsuit seeks control of 39,069 dormant addresses under Article 7-B of New York’s Personal Property Law, which covers lost property. The targeted addresses reportedly held about 3.7 million BTC when the complaint was filed, including wallets associated with Bitcoin creator Satoshi Nakamoto and the Mt. Gox hacker.

According to filings covered by crypto.news, New York Supreme Court Justice Kathy J. King paused the proceedings in June and blocked the plaintiffs from seeking a default judgment before a scheduled July hearing.

The plaintiffs had sent small “dust” transactions to thousands of addresses with messages intended to notify their controllers about the claim. Galaxy uses the term “Salomon-dusted” for addresses that received the notices, explaining the labels attached to two wallets in the latest group.

Activity from named wallets has affected the case because the complaint said that addresses that moved funds would be removed. In July, the plaintiffs dropped 44 wallets after they became active following the filing.

Galaxy Research head Alex Thorn said the removed addresses held 21,443 BTC when the lawsuit began. They later moved 46,334 BTC and held about 3,097 BTC when he reported the change.

“Every single one had moved coins onchain since the case was filed,” Thorn said on July 8.

M&A attorney Ian R. Cohen and the Digital Chamber have opposed the plaintiffs’ legal position. Their filings argue that a self-custodied Bitcoin address does not become abandoned solely because it has recorded no outgoing transactions for an extended period.

Security concerns may explain some old-wallet activity

Separate concerns about hardware-wallet security have also prompted long-term holders to move Bitcoin, though no public evidence directly connects four of the latest six wallets to a compromised device.

A firmware flaw affecting certain Coldcard devices led attackers to reconstruct weak seed phrases and drain Bitcoin beginning in late July. Galaxy estimated in early August that four attack waves had removed about 1,816 BTC from 5,294 addresses.

Coinkite, Coldcard’s manufacturer, traced the problem to a firmware change introduced in March 2021. The error weakened the randomness used to create seeds on some devices, making affected private keys easier to calculate than intended.

Wallets established in 2011, 2012, or 2014 predate the flawed Coldcard firmware, but their owners could have imported older keys into affected devices at a later date. No on-chain data cited by Galaxy confirms that such a migration occurred.

For US holders, merely moving Bitcoin between addresses under the same person’s control does not create a taxable disposal. The Internal Revenue Service states that a transfer between wallets, accounts, or addresses belonging to the same taxpayer is not a taxable event, although network fees paid with cryptocurrency may involve separate recordkeeping considerations.

Unstoppable Domains has dropped plans to seek ICANN recognition for its own Web3 domain extensions after finding that compliance, application, and auction costs would exceed the sales it expected to recover.

Unstoppable Domains says ICANN costs became too high

Unstoppable Domains said it did not submit ICANN applications for nine of its Web3 extensions, including .crypto, .wallet and .blockchain, before the 2026 application round closed. The decision ends its plan to add conventional DNS support to the affected blockchain-based domains.

According to the company’s founder, Matthew Gould, the expected cost of compliance, preparing each application, and competing in possible auctions exceeded the amount Unstoppable believed it could recover through domain sales. ICANN may place applicants into contention when two or more parties request the same extension, creating another potential expense beyond the initial application and evaluation process.

The company has notified affected customers by email and plans to refund purchases tied to extensions that it did not take into the 2026 application round. However, Unstoppable has not publicly released a complete list of eligible extensions, the amount covered by each refund, or the process customers must follow to receive their money.

Questions from holders have centered on whether refunds will cover every domain sold with the expectation of eventual ICANN recognition. Some customers said they retained their names because Unstoppable had repeatedly discussed bringing selected extensions into the standard internet system.

Gould responded that the domains will continue to operate as on-chain assets. Owners can still use supported names as readable aliases for cryptocurrency addresses and for other functions inside compatible wallets and decentralized applications, even though the names will not automatically work in conventional browsers through ICANN’s root system.

The decision ends a commitment dating to 2019

Since 2019, Unstoppable Domains has promoted the prospect that extensions such as .crypto and .wallet could eventually connect Web3 naming with the traditional internet. Gaining ICANN approval would have allowed an accepted extension to work through ordinary DNS infrastructure instead of relying mainly on compatible wallets, applications, browser settings or dedicated resolution services.

In June 2024, crypto.news reported that Unstoppable and Blockchain.com were preparing a .blockchain application for the next ICANN round. The companies said at the time that approval could allow .blockchain names to support normal websites and email while retaining Web3 functions.

Another partnership followed in May 2025, when Brave and Unstoppable launched the .brave domain for the browser’s users. Brave said the Polygon-based names could replace long wallet addresses, support decentralized websites, and operate across several blockchain networks. Both companies were also exploring an ICANN application that could bring .brave into the conventional DNS.

Without ICANN recognition, a blockchain domain and a DNS name using the same text can exist in separate naming systems. Standard browsers generally resolve ICANN-approved names by default, while Web3 names depend on supporting software. Owners may therefore retain their on-chain names without gaining the universal browser access previously tied to Unstoppable’s application plans.

For U.S. customers, the immediate effect is commercial rather than a new regulatory restriction. Unstoppable is based in the United States, while ICANN is a California nonprofit public-benefit corporation responsible for coordinating unique internet identifiers. Neither organization has said the refund plan changes the ownership of already-minted blockchain domains.

ICANN received more than 1,600 applications

ICANN opened the 2026 round on April 30 and accepted submissions for 15 weeks before closing the window at 11:59 p.m. UTC on Aug. 12. It was the first opportunity in years for companies, communities and other organizations to request new generic top-level domains.

In an Aug. 13 update, ICANN said it had received more than 1,600 primary applications. More than 1,100 also contained proposed replacement strings that could be considered if the preferred extension is unavailable or cannot proceed.

Most submissions arrived during the final days of the window, according to ICANN. The organization said the final count depended on applicants paying their evaluation fees, which were due either on Aug. 19 or seven days after the relevant invoice was issued, whichever date came later.

After an administrative review, ICANN plans to publish the public portions of the submissions on what it calls Reveal Day. The disclosure will identify the requested extensions, their applicants, and any strings sought by more than one party. Competing requests may then move through objection, evaluation, resolution, or auction procedures under the applicant guidebook.

Unstoppable has not withdrawn from ICANN-related business altogether. Gould said the company will continue participating as a service provider for partner applications, separating that work from the decision not to pursue its own established Web3 extensions.

Telegram and ENS are still pursuing conventional domains

Among the partner projects, Telegram has applied for .gram in the 2026 round, with Unstoppable acting as its registry service provider. Telegram founder Pavel Durov said ICANN approval could allow more than one billion users to register second-level addresses such as a username followed by .gram.

Durov also said Telegram users could build interactive websites linked to the proposed addresses using a single prompt. The company has not disclosed pricing, allocation rules or a launch date, while ICANN approval remains necessary before .gram can enter the standard domain system.

Ethereum Name Service has taken a separate route. Earlier in August, ENS token holders approved a foundation overhaul that created a five-member board and gave the reorganized entity authority to represent the protocol before ICANN and other internet standards bodies.

The ENS Foundation plans to pursue .ens as a conventional top-level domain, which could allow ENS-linked names to interact with browsers, websites and email services through established DNS infrastructure. ENS does not plan to seek .eth because three-letter country-code strings based on the ISO 3166-1 standard are reserved under ICANN’s application rules.