Crypto World
Analyst Maps Out 2 Paths for Ripple’s Price
Where will XRP find a bottom and how high it would go in a subsequent bull market?
The popular cross-border token plunged hard recently, going from a January 6 peak of $2.40 to just over $1.10 during last Friday’s market-wide massacre. After crashing by over 50% within a relatively short period, it bounced off but remains sluggish below $1.40, still showing a 25% decline on a year-to-date scale.
The consensus in the cryptocurrency community is that the bear market has already begun, given the fact that not only XRP but BTC and many other larger-cap alts have plunged by 50% or more from their heights in 2025. As such, analysts have started to speculate where each asset’s bottom might be and how much pain investors would have to endure before they see a trend reversal.
$0.60 to $11?
ERGAG CRYPTO, who is among the most well-known and bullish members of the XRP army, mapped out two potential scenarios for Ripple’s cross-border token. In the first chart, the bottom is presented at $0.60, which would essentially erase all gains charted after Trump’s presidential election victory in late 2024 and push the asset back to its starting point at the time.
This chart comes with a deeper drawdown, continuous fear and disbelief, and weak hands getting flushed. On the upside, XRP could go on a sublime run once the market reverses and the bulls take over, with the analyst predicting a surge to a $11 top.
#XRP – Chart 1 or Chart 2?
💡This isn’t opinion. It’s math, structure, and market behavior.
💡Markets don’t reward comfort. They reward conviction under pressure.
💡Choose your pain or pain will choose you.
📉 Chart 1:
▫️Bottom: $0.60
▫️Top: $11
▫️ Deeper drawdown
▫️ Fear… pic.twitter.com/7KxtTwcd2A— EGRAG CRYPTO (@egragcrypto) February 13, 2026
More Modest Prediction
The alternative in ERGAG CRYPTO’s mapping was a second chart showing lower volatility ahead in both directions. The bottom would be around $0.90, while the top could be $8.5.
This scenario would provide investors with more comfort and less pain, but its upside potential would also be lower, the analyst added.
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At the time of writing, both bottoms seem more likely to be reached, while the tops appear quite far-fetched. After all, XRP would have to skyrocket by 3x (or more) from its 2025 all-time high of $3.65 before it can challenge the double-digit price levels. In contrast, going to $0.90 or even $0.60 in the current market environment seems rather reasonable.
Nevertheless, market trends can change extremely quickly, and XRP has proven in the past that it’s capable of remarkable runs. After the US elections, it went from $0.60 to $3.40 in just a few months, which is a 466% surge.
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Bitcoin investors are being forced to rethink why they hold the asset as inflation data cools, according to Bitcoin entrepreneur Anthony Pompliano.
“I think the challenge for Bitcoin investors, can you hold an asset when there is not high inflation in your face on a day-to-day basis?” Pompliano said during an interview with Fox Business on Thursday. “Can you still believe in what Bitcoin’s value proposition is, which is that it’s a finite-supply asset. If they print money, Bitcoin is going higher,” he said.
“Bitcoin and gold are great long-term things,” he said. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell to 2.4% in January from 2.7% in December, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. However, Mark Zandi, Moody’s chief economist, recently told CNBC that inflation “looks better on paper than in reality.”
Bitcoin (BTC) is typically seen as a hedge against inflation because only 21 million coins will ever exist. When central banks increase the money supply and the value of fiat currencies declines, investors often turn to perceived riskier assets, such as Bitcoin, to protect their purchasing power.
Bitcoin sentiment has reached multi-year lows
It comes as sentiment for Bitcoin has reached multi-year lows not seen since June 2022, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posting an “Extreme Fear” score of 9 in its Saturday update.
Bitcoin is trading at $68,850 at the time of publication, down 28.62% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
US dollar devaluation will be covered up by “monetary slingshot”
Pompliano said the macro environment could create short-term volatility for Bitcoin before it resumes its upward trajectory.
“We’re going get deflationary-type forces in the short term, people are going to ask to print money and to drop interest rates,” he said.
He explained that this will lead to the devaluation of the US dollar, though the effect won’t be immediately visible.
Related: Bitcoin ETFs bleed $410M as Standard Chartered slashes BTC target
“The currency is going to be devalued at a time where deflation covers up the impact, so I call it a monetary slingshot,” Pompiano said.
Pompliano forecasted that the Federal Reserve will continue to expand the money supply to “deal with inflation,” but as the dollar faces further devaluation, he expects Bitcoin to become “more valuable than ever.”
The US dollar index, which tracks the dollar’s strength against a basket of major currencies, is down 2.32% over the past 30 days and is trading at $96.88, according to TradingView.
Magazine: Bitcoin’s ‘biggest bull catalyst’ would be Saylor’s liquidation: Santiment founder
Crypto World
Can Monero price reclaim January highs as bullish MACD crossover forms after weekly rebound?
Monero price rebounded nearly 15% over the past week to $350 as investors bought the recent dip to a yearly low. It is close to charting a bullish MACD crossover that could pave the way for more upside in the coming weeks.
Summary
- Monero price is close to confirming a bullish MACD crossover on the daily chart.
- Recent dip buying and demand for privacy tokens have supported XMR price action.
On the daily chart, Monero price is on the brink of confirming a bullish MACD crossover, which occurs when the MACD line crosses over the signal line. Such a crossover typically means that buying pressure has started to outweigh the sellers who had been dominating previously.
XMR price has also confirmed a breakout from a falling wedge pattern formed when an asset price trades within two converging and descending lines. A falling wedge breakout has historically been one of the most reliable indicators of an impending bullish reversal in trend.
For now, the next key resistance to watch lies at $375, the strong pivot reverse point of the Murray lines. A rally above this could trigger a sharp continuation to as high as $625, where the strong pivot reverse of the upper range lies.
If bulls manage to push past that resistance, the next likely target would be a reclaim of the yearly high at $788.
According to data from crypto.news, Monero (XMR) price rallied to a weekly high of around $350 on Feb. 12, before stabilizing around $334 at press time.
Monero’s rally over the past months has largely been supported by renewed market chatter over privacy as a hedge, fueled by rising global surveillance concerns.
As the European Union prepares to implement stricter bans on anonymous accounts and privacy coins by 2027, and Dubai’s regulators tighten restrictions, users are moving toward XMR.
There’s also demand for the token across illicit marketplaces where bad actors use XMR to circumvent regulatory surveillance. Per a recent report from TRM Labs, nearly 48% of newly launched darknet markets now support XMR exclusively.
Holding a market cap of over $6.1 billion when writing, Monero has navigated a volatile start to the year. After soaring over 75% to a mid-January high of $788.50, the asset suffered a major correction that sent it tumbling to a yearly low of $284 last week.
The crash followed Bitcoin’s drop below the $75,000 psychological support level, an event that spooked the broader market and sparked billions of dollars in liquidations, with privacy coins bearing the brunt of the selloff.
Notably, as of press time, the total market cap of privacy coins was still in pain as it dropped nearly 12% over the past day to $11.4 billion.
However, some of the major players, such as Monero, Zcash (ZEC), and Decred (DCR), have managed to hold gains so far this week as investors capitalized on the recent volatility through dip buying, likely viewing the recent sell-off as a long-term accumulation opportunity.
Disclosure: This article does not represent investment advice. The content and materials featured on this page are for educational purposes only.
Standard Chartered cuts 2026 Bitcoin and Ethereum targets again, citing weak macro, softer Fed-cut hopes, ETF outflows and shifting investor positioning.
Summary
- Standard Chartered reduced its long-term 2026 Bitcoin price target for a second time in three months, after earlier downgrades from more aggressive projections.
- Geoff Kendrick cites deteriorating macro conditions, delayed Fed easing, ETF outflows and the risk of deeper investor capitulation as key downside drivers.
- The bank also lowered its 2026 Ethereum target, warning ETH could drop sharply first even as on-chain activity and network usage trends remain comparatively healthy.
Standard Chartered has lowered its long-term Bitcoin price forecast for the second time in less than three months, citing weakening macroeconomic conditions and shifting investor behavior in the cryptocurrency market.
In a note published Thursday, Geoff Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets research, stated that Standard Chartered now expects Bitcoin (BTC) to reach its revised target by the end of 2026. The latest projection represents a significant reduction from the bank’s previous forecast for the cryptocurrency. The revision follows an earlier downgrade in December, when the bank cut its target from a prior forecast.
Bitcoin pessimism remains
According to Bloomberg, the bank’s more cautious stance reflects a combination of deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and changing investor behavior, particularly during the past month’s market downturn. Bitcoin has declined substantially from its October peak, while US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have recorded sizeable net outflows.
Kendrick noted that slowing US economic momentum and reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have pressured digital assets. Declining ETF holdings have removed a critical source of demand that supported previous rallies, according to the note.
The interest-rate environment remains a central concern for cryptocurrency markets. Market participants have pushed back expectations for Federal Reserve easing, with investors now anticipating that the first rate cut may come later in the year than previously expected. Kendrick also cited uncertainty surrounding future Federal Reserve leadership as an additional factor contributing to caution around Bitcoin.
The bank warned that deteriorating macroeconomic conditions and the risk of further investor capitulation could continue to pressure prices in the near term.
Despite the more conservative forecasts, Standard Chartered emphasized that the current downturn appears more orderly than previous cryptocurrency market collapses. Kendrick highlighted that on-chain activity data continues to show improvement, suggesting that underlying network usage remains healthy. The market has not experienced high-profile platform failures similar to those that defined the 2022 cycle, when the collapses of Terra/Luna and FTX triggered widespread contagion, according to the bank.
Standard Chartered also revised its outlook for Ethereum, reducing its 2026 price target for the second-largest cryptocurrency from an earlier projection. Analysts expect Ether could fall significantly before reaching that level, according to the note.
Bitget launches Gracy AI, an animated digital human modeled on CEO Gracy Chen to guide users on market cycles, strategy, and career decisions rather than price calls.
Summary
- Bitget unveils Gracy AI, an animated digital human built around CEO Gracy Chen’s decision-making approach and leadership mindset for crypto users.
- The tool prioritizes market cycles, strategy, career paths, and uncertainty management over chart-watching or short-term price prediction, acting as a contextual guide.
- Gracy AI anchors Bitget’s Universal Exchange roadmap, tying into themed conversations like Valentine’s Day and Chinese New Year to keep AI interactions personal and timely.
Cryptocurrency exchange Bitget has launched Gracy AI, a digital assistant designed to replicate the experience and decision-making process of Chief Executive Officer Gracy Chen, the company announced.
The AI tool represents the first animated digital human in the cryptocurrency sector created to provide leadership-oriented guidance through direct user interactions, according to the company. The technology aims to address market cycles, strategy development, career considerations, and decision-making frameworks rather than focusing on chart analysis or short-term market signals.
Gracy AI builds on GetAgent, Bitget’s existing AI platform for analytics and decision support. The new tool shifts focus toward interpretation and contextual understanding, allowing users to explore industry direction, uncertainty management, and decision-making approaches during volatile market conditions. The system does not predict prices but rather assists users in developing clearer analytical frameworks, the company stated.
“A big part of my job is listening to user concerns, getting close to the details, and helping people understand what’s really happening in the market,” Chen stated. “The team built Gracy AI around that same approach so more users can connect, learn and grow feeling supported by me and the team.”
The launch forms part of Bitget’s broader AI development roadmap within its UEX transformation initiative. While GetAgent established the exchange’s capabilities in analytics and decision support, Gracy AI represents the user-facing component of the strategy, emphasizing understanding over execution.
To accompany the launch, Bitget is introducing themed conversation modules tied to cultural moments. Valentine’s Day features self-care-focused interactions, while Chinese New Year includes guided conversations addressing goals, perspective, and planning. The campaigns aim to position AI interaction as personalized and contextual rather than transactional, according to the company.
The Gracy AI release follows Bitget’s ongoing integration of artificial intelligence across its platform, including AI-powered market insights, automated trading tools, and GetAgent’s volatility navigation features. The company stated the new tool extends its approach by incorporating experience and perspective into an accessible conversational interface as Bitget develops its Universal Exchange platform.
Bitcoin price is facing renewed pressure after on-chain data flagged by Lookonchain revealed that a major whale has moved roughly 10,000 BTC to Binance over the past two days, raising concerns of potential selling activity.
Summary
- Lookonchain flagged a Bitcoin whale moving nearly 10,000 BTC to Binance over two days, raising concerns of potential sell pressure.
- Bitcoin is trading around $66,900, well below its 50-day SMA near $85,000, confirming a strong short-term downtrend.
- Key support sits at $65,000 and $60,000, while resistance stands at $72,000 and $78,000–$80,000, with indicators still showing mild capital outflows.
The most recent transfer involved 2,035 Bitcoin (BTC) worth about $135 million. In total, the whale has deposited around 8,200 BTC in 48 hours, bringing cumulative recent inflows close to the 10,000 BTC mark.
Lookonchain warned traders that previous deposits from the same wallet were followed by short-term price drops, including a decline of more than 3% shortly after a prior alert.
Large exchange inflows are often interpreted as potential sell signals because coins moved to centralized platforms become immediately liquid. While deposits do not guarantee selling, the timing has raised caution among traders already navigating a fragile technical setup.
Bitcoin price analysis and forecast
On the daily chart (BTC/USDT), Bitcoin is currently trading near $66,900, well below the 50-day simple moving average at $85,012. The sharp gap between price and the 50 SMA signals a strong prevailing downtrend.
Price recently plunged toward the $60,000–$62,000 zone, printing a long lower wick before bouncing. That area now stands as critical support. A daily close below $60,000 could open the door toward the psychological $55,000 region.
Immediate support sits around $65,000, which price is currently testing. If this level fails, bears may attempt another push toward the recent lows.
On the upside, resistance is forming at $72,000, where recent recovery attempts stalled. A stronger resistance cluster lies between $78,000 and $80,000, followed by the 50-day SMA near $85,000, which now acts as dynamic resistance.
The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator sits slightly negative at around -0.05. While it has recovered from deeply negative territory, it still suggests capital outflows remain dominant. Sustained movement above the zero line would be needed to confirm renewed buying pressure.
If whale deposits translate into spot selling, Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 support zone. However, if $65,000 holds and exchange inflows fail to trigger heavy liquidation, a short-term rebound toward $72,000 is possible.
For now, the trend remains bearish unless Bitcoin reclaims levels above $80,000 and closes back above its 50-day moving average.
Chainalysis says crypto flows to suspected trafficking services jumped 85% in 2025, with stablecoin-heavy, Telegram-linked networks leaving traceable on-chain trails.
Summary
- Chainalysis reports an 85% year-over-year rise in 2025 crypto flows to suspected trafficking services, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars globally.
- Telegram-based escort services, scam-compound labor agents, prostitution networks, and CSAM vendors increasingly rely on stablecoins and privacy tools for cross-border payments.
- Despite this growth, blockchain transparency lets investigators map large, structured transactions, trace chokepoints at exchanges, and link wallets to known criminal groups.
Cryptocurrency flows to suspected human trafficking services increased 85% year-over-year in 2025, reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, according to new data from blockchain analysis firm Chainalysis.
Nearly half of transactions tied to Telegram-based international escort services exceeded $10,000, the report stated. The data indicates increasing professionalization of these networks, while blockchain transparency has emerged as an investigative tool for law enforcement.
Chainalysis tracked four major categories of suspected crypto-facilitated trafficking activity: Telegram-based international escort services, labor placement agents tied to scam compounds, prostitution networks, and child sexual abuse material (CSAM) vendors. The growth corresponds with the expansion of Southeast Asia-based scam compounds, online gambling operations, and Chinese-language money laundering networks, many operating via Telegram, according to the report.
Blockchain transactions leave permanent trails, unlike cash transactions. Law enforcement investigators are using that visibility to map flows, identify chokepoints, and disrupt operations, the firm reported.
Payment behavior varies across categories. Telegram-based international escort services and prostitution networks rely heavily on stablecoins, according to the data. CSAM vendors historically preferred Bitcoin, though alternative Layer 1 networks are increasing in use. Monero is increasingly used for laundering in CSAM-linked operations. The use of stablecoins suggests these networks prioritize price stability and rapid off-ramping, despite the risk of asset freezes by centralized issuers, the report stated.
Transaction size data reveals the structured nature of these operations. Nearly 50% of Telegram-based escort transactions exceed $10,000, prostitution networks cluster in the $1,000 to $10,000 range, and CSAM transactions trend lower, with many under $100, according to Chainalysis. Large transfers suggest organized, scaled criminal enterprises rather than isolated actors, the firm stated.
CSAM-related activity continues to evolve. Subscription-based revenue models dominate the sector, with payments typically under $100 per month, the report found. The data shows increased overlap with sadistic online extremism communities and greater use of instant exchangers and privacy tools.
In one 2025 case, a darkweb CSAM site used over 5,800 cryptocurrency addresses and generated more than $530,000 since 2022, exceeding revenue tied to the 2019 “Welcome to Video” case, according to the report. Geographic analysis shows strategic use of U.S.-based infrastructure, likely for scale and perceived legitimacy, Chainalysis stated.
Telegram-based escort services show strong financial integration with Chinese-language money laundering networks, guarantee platforms, and mainstream exchanges, the data indicated. Funds often pass through institutional-grade platforms before conversion into local currency. This creates both scale and vulnerability, as exchanges and guarantee services become compliance chokepoints, according to the firm.
Human trafficking linked to scam compounds remains tightly connected to cryptocurrency. Victims are recruited via fraudulent job advertisements, then coerced into scam operations in Southeast Asia, the report stated. Recruitment payments typically range from $1,000 to $10,000, matching observed on-chain transaction patterns. Blockchain analysis has tied certain administrator accounts to criminal organizations previously flagged by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, according to Chainalysis.
The data shows major cryptocurrency inflows from the United States, Brazil, the United Kingdom, Spain, and Australia. Chinese-language Telegram services operating across mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia demonstrate global payment infrastructure, the report found. Cryptocurrency enables cross-border payment coordination at scale, but also exposes flow patterns that investigators can analyze, Chainalysis stated.
The firm highlighted several red flags, including large recurring payments to labor agents, high-volume flows through guarantee platforms, stablecoin conversion clusters, cross-border transaction concentration, and wallet overlap across multiple illicit categories.
Blockchain transparency provides measurable, traceable data that law enforcement can leverage, unlike traditional cash-based systems, according to the report.
Vitalik Buterin says crypto apps must move beyond “pay users or fail,” using incentives only to offset early risks while focusing on real utility and committed communities.
Summary
- Vitalik Buterin rejects “pay users or fail” as a growth model, arguing that sustainable incentives mirror normal businesses where revenue from some users funds value for others.
- He says early rewards can fairly compensate liquidity providers and early adopters for smart contract, hack, and project failure risks, but should fade as protocols mature and audits reduce risk.
- Buterin warns that airdrops and social media payout schemes inflate metrics with low-quality activity, while real adoption comes from useful apps and committed community contributors.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has weighed in on ongoing debates within the cryptocurrency industry regarding user acquisition strategies, cautioning against reliance on unsustainable financial incentives.
Buterin goes on recent cryptocurrency rant
In a recent online discussion on X, Buterin responded to claims that cryptocurrency applications cannot achieve meaningful adoption without airdrops or token rewards. The debate centered on whether financial payouts remain essential for building network effects in the sector.
Buterin acknowledged that incentives reflect current market conditions but warned against adopting a “pay users or fail” growth strategy, according to his posts on the social media platform.
The Ethereum co-founder drew distinctions between sustainable and unsustainable reward structures. Sustainable models involve paying certain users from revenue collected from others, creating an economic loop that mirrors traditional business models where income funds growth, he stated.
Buterin said paying users during early project stages can be justified in specific circumstances. Liquidity providers face risks including potential hacks or project failure, as new protocols carry technical and security vulnerabilities, he noted. Rewards in these cases serve as compensation for assuming elevated risk levels.
Once projects complete audits and establish trust within the sector, risk levels decline and high rewards become unnecessary, according to Buterin’s analysis.
The approach differs from paying users solely to generate activity or traffic, he stated. Paying all users during early growth phases can create long-term sustainability issues, as teams may incorrectly assume future profits will cover initial spending. Activity often drops once rewards end because many users joined exclusively for payouts, Buterin noted.
Aggressive reward campaigns risk undermining cryptocurrency communities, according to the post. Projects that compensate users for posting promotional content frequently produce unintended outcomes, with creators focusing on earning rewards rather than producing quality content. Activity typically declines when payments cease, as users lack incentives to continue platform engagement.
Buterin distinguished between decentralized finance applications and social platforms. In DeFi, capital functions uniformly regardless of provider, he stated. On social platforms, quality and active users carry more significance than user base size.
Committed community members often build tools, write documentation and answer forum questions without expecting rewards, according to Buterin. These contributions tend to strengthen projects over time, he stated.
Effective incentives should offset temporary weaknesses in early-stage products and decline as those weaknesses diminish, Buterin argued. Campaigns that pay users to inflate metrics can create appearances of adoption while failing to build sustainable communities.
“The bulk of the effort should be on making an actually-useful app. This was historically ignored, because it’s not necessary for narrative engineering to create a speculative bubble. But now it is necessary,” Buterin wrote.
The Ethereum co-founder argued that the cryptocurrency sector is gradually transitioning toward models driven by real utility rather than reward-led growth. Strong incentive structures compensate for early disadvantages and naturally phase out as projects mature, according to his statements.
The Nasdaq Composite led a broad market selloff on Thursday, as artificial intelligence fears reemerged on Wall Street.
The tech-heavy index sank 2%. The S&P 500 dropped 1.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 663 points, or 1.3%.
The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF closed down nearly 11% from its closing high of $69.06 on Oct. 29, according to Dow Jones Market Data. A decline of 10% or more from a recent high means an index is in correction territory.
As Valentine’s Day approaches, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Ohio is warning the public about a surge in romance scams that target people through online relationships and often lead to financial loss, including requests for cryptocurrency payments.
Summary
- The U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Northern District of Ohio issued a Valentine’s Day warning about a surge in romance scams, many involving cryptocurrency payments.
- Scammers build fake online relationships over weeks or months before requesting money for “emergencies,” travel, or bogus crypto investments.
- Officials urge the public never to send gift cards, wire transfers, or cryptocurrency to someone they have not met in person, citing rising financial losses nationwide.
Criminals behind these schemes exploit victims’ trust and emotions by posing as romantic partners on dating sites, social media and messaging apps.
After building what appears to be a genuine relationship over weeks or months, scammers eventually ask victims for money, often under the guise of emergencies, travel costs or investment opportunities.
How crypto romance scams typically work
“Romance scammers are not looking for love — they are looking for money,” said U.S. Attorney David M. Toepfer. “They prey on trust and emotion … never send money to someone you have not met in person.”
According to the federal warning, fraudsters typically follow a pattern:
- They create fake profiles using stolen photos.
- Claim to work overseas in the military, oil rigs or business.
- Quickly profess deep feelings or commitment.
- Shift conversations off public platforms to private messaging.
Red flags include early declarations of love, excuses for not meeting in person, repeated “emergencies,” and unusual payment requests, especially gift cards, cryptocurrency or wire transfers.
Such scams have grown more sophisticated in recent years. In some cases, victims are directed to bogus investment platforms that promise unrealistically high returns before the scammers disappear with funds.
National reports have found that romance and confidence scams accounted for significant losses, often involving cryptocurrency transactions.
Cryptocurrency wallet makers and security companies are pushing out post-quantum products even though large-scale quantum computers capable of breaking Bitcoin do not exist yet.
The US National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) finalized its first post-quantum cryptography standards in 2024 and called for migrations before 2030.
As standards bodies plan for a gradual cryptographic transition, parts of the wallet market are already monetizing that future.
“I do feel that it is a bit of a fear tax. We know that quantum computers are far away — still five to 15 years away,” Alexei Zamyatin, co-founder of Build on Bitcoin (BOB), told Cointelegraph.
Bitcoin is trading roughly 50% below its October 2025 all-time high. Among the handful of theories attempting to explain crypto’s recent decline is a growing concern that quantum computing risks may be deterring institutional capital from Bitcoin.
The quantum risk is not zero, and it is not sudden
The quantum vulnerability often discussed is Bitcoin’s Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm, which authorizes transactions. In theory, a powerful quantum computer could derive a private key from an exposed public key and claim the coins sitting in an address.
Today’s quantum hardware isn’t capable of breaking the elliptic curve signatures. But that doesn’t mean threat actors are waiting around for a technical breakthrough.
“Many users expect a single ‘Q-Day’ in the future when cryptography suddenly fails. In reality, risk accumulates gradually as cryptographic assumptions weaken and exposure increases,” Kapil Dhiman, CEO and co-founder of Quranium, told Cointelegraph.
“Harvest now, decrypt-later strategies are already active, meaning data and signatures exposed today are being collected against future capability,” he said.
Related: What if quantum computers already broke Bitcoin?
In Bitcoin’s case, the concern is for older exposed public keys. Once a public key appears onchain, it remains permanently visible. Modern address formats obscure public keys until coins are spent.
CoinShares Bitcoin researcher Christopher Bendiksen said that just 10,230 Bitcoin (BTC) sit in addresses with publicly exposed public keys that would be vulnerable to a sufficiently powerful quantum attack.
The quantum fear business
While the Bitcoin community debates how far away quantum computing is, crypto wallet makers are operating on their own clock.
Trezor’s Safe 7 is marketed as a “quantum-ready” hardware wallet. Separately, qLabs recently introduced the Quantum-Sig wallet, which it claims embeds post-quantum signatures directly into its signing process.
BOB’s Zamyatin argued that wallet-level defenses would not solve Bitcoin’s quantum risk. Bitcoin transactions are authorized using a signature scheme embedded in the protocol itself. If that cryptography were ever broken, the fix would require a protocol-level change.
“I personally wouldn’t invest a lot of money into a quantum wallet right now because I don’t even know what protection it gives me for Bitcoin. It can’t really give me any protection, in my opinion, because Bitcoin doesn’t have a quantum-resistant signature scheme yet.”
Ada Jonušė, executive director at qLabs, agreed that full quantum resilience requires protocol-level defense. However, brushing off modern infrastructure as a fear tax overlooks the transitional nature of security upgrades.
“Quantum risk is not binary. Even before a protocol-level migration occurs, there is a real ‘harvest now, decrypt later’ threat,” she told Cointelegraph, claiming that qLabs’ approach reduces exposed key surface.
“Quantum readiness is about proactive infrastructure planning, not fear monetization,” Jonušė said.
Related: Bitcoin’s quantum countdown has already begun, Naoris CEO says
Trezor also admitted that blockchains themselves need to change their cryptography and protocol. But Tomáš Sušánka, the company’s chief technology officer, told Cointelegraph that wallets can implement protections right away instead of waiting for protracted blockchain upgrades.
“Once the blockchains upgrade, wallets must also support the same algorithms to remain compatible,” Sušánka said. He added that Trezor Safe 7 uses a post-quantum algorithm to protect against future quantum computers forging digital signatures and signing malicious firmware updates.
Market incentives and Bitcoin’s governance hurdle
Unlike iPhones, which are released almost every year, hardware wallets and other security products typically have multi-year product lifecycles. Introducing post-quantum features in a new product gives a reason for customers to buy a new device, even if the threat is distant.
“Yes, parts of the crypto industry do have incentives to amplify quantum risk, but that incentive is increasingly driven by regulatory and institutional alignment, not short-term sales alone,” said Dhiman, whose Quranium powers the Qsafe wallet.
“For most users, quantum-secure wallets today function as long-term insurance. The responsible approach is to acknowledge the transition ahead, avoid urgency driven by fear and choose systems designed to evolve without forcing abrupt replacements.”
Several blockchains are advancing with post-quantum strategies, but Bitcoin has been relatively hesitant. Some of the network’s most influential voices have brushed off the threat as a problem for the future.
Unlike Bitcoin, Ethereum has a widely recognized figurehead. Co-founder Vitalik Buterin has advocated for post-quantum preparations, and the network has been steering in that direction.
For Bitcoin, the issue is social consensus, coordination and the willingness to act, according to Zamyatin.
“It’s not like [Bitcoin has] one person that everyone will follow. It will require a broad social consensus, which is very hard to achieve,” he said.
Wallet makers agree that full quantum protection has to come from the protocol. But even if the risk is years away, they can act as insurance to help investors sleep better at night, though some argue they amount to a fear tax.
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