Analyst Sees Pivotal Trend Test

Bitcoin (BTC) gave up the $80,000 level over the weekend and now faces a historically significant battle around $74,000-$75,000. This zone has repeatedly served as a critical support floor over the past two years, and analysts say the next test could be pivotal for the ongoing bear market.

Analyst Ardi notes that the $74,000-$75,000 region has anchored BTC’s price action in multiple phases. In 2024, the zone helped cap a seven-month consolidation, and in early 2025 it provided support before Bitcoin ascended to cycle highs near $126,000. As BTC approaches this crucial band after posting a 5.78% weekly correction to roughly $77,900, the weight of the zone is reinforced by several major price pivots formed there across different timeframes.

Key takeaways

• BTC is testing a long-standing support band around $74k-$75k after dipping below $80k, a level that has repeatedly defined price stability in recent years.
• Analysts see the next retest of this zone as potentially decisive for the current bear market, given its historical role as a support anchor across multiple cycles.
• The Bitcoin market-signal framework known as the bull-bear structure index has shifted back to bearish territory after BTC failed to sustain above $82k, signaling renewed selling pressure.
• On-chain activity highlights a shift of long-term holders’ coins to exchanges, with a rising share of older BTC moving on-chain and toward selling, amplifying near-term downside risk.
• If BTC can hold the $70k-$75k neighborhood, traders see potential for a relief rally toward the mid-to-high $80k range; a break below the zone could widen the downside toward $50k-$60k.

Critical price zone under scrutiny

As BTC approaches the $74,000-$75,000 corridor, market observers emphasize the zone’s weight as a potential fulcrum for the bear market. Ardi explains that this area has repeatedly functioned as a technical anchor, shaping strategic decisions for traders looking for the next directional impulse. The recurrence of pivotal pivots near this level across multiple timeframes adds to the sense that a robust defense here could extend the downtrend, while a durable hold might set the stage for a fresh leg higher once demand returns.

Bitcoin’s recent price action—trading around $77,900 after a weekly decline—puts the market in a position where a decisive hold in the $74k-$75k zone could calm near-term downside risks and pave the way for new momentum if buyers reemerge. The narrative hinges on whether buyers can sustain a floor in this band or if sellers gain the upper hand and drive BTC into deeper correction territory.

Bearish signals strengthen as price stalls above $82k

Market signals tracking BTC’s structural balance offer a sobering read. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. notes that the Bitcoin bull-bear structure index turned bearish again after BTC failed to maintain a run above $82,000 earlier this month. The metric aggregates six indicators—spanning ETF demand proxies, trader activity, exchange flows, and short-term momentum—to gauge whether buyers or sellers currently control the market. A positive reading points to buyer dominance, while a negative one signals growing selling pressure.

The bullish tilt proved fleeting. The index turned positive for less than three trading days, around early May when BTC flirted with $82,000. By May 17, the reading had collapsed to -23.49, underscoring a swift reversal toward seller control. This shift aligns with a broader view that fading upside momentum could be accompanied by renewed selling pressure, particularly if price fails to sustain critical levels.

On-chain dynamics reinforce this sentiment. CryptoQuant data show more BTC flowing onto exchanges from investors who bought BTC six to twelve months ago, a cohort that typically sits on significant unrealized losses when prices retreat. The analysis notes the average cost basis among this cohort sits around $110,851, suggesting many holders are vulnerable to realizing losses as prices pull back.

Historically, this reflects investors locking in major losses and exiting the market, creating severe spot-market selling pressure.

Additionally, the share of older coins moving to exchanges spiked to about 10.54%, far above the usual sub-1% threshold. Easy On Chain highlighted this pattern as a potential sign that longer-held positions are being liquidated, adding to near-term selling pressure and challenging the odds of a rapid rebound until demand returns.

For context, recent coverage around Bitcoin’s price action has also looked at potential near-term traps and the broader supply/demand balance. A linked analysis from Cointelegraph discussed a bullish trap around the mid-$70k range, underscoring how fragile the market’s immediate upside can be when tested at key levels.

What happens next: scanning the two likely paths

Traders are watching the $70,000 level as a more decisive floor. Alex Wacy, another market observer cited in the coverage, framed the possible outcomes as a bifurcation: holding the $70k zone could underpin a return to the $85,000–$90,000 range, rekindling bullish expectations if demand reasserts itself. Conversely, losing the $70k area—and notably breaking below the $74k-$75k support band—could open a path toward deeper losses, potentially targeting the $50,000–$60,000 region if the selling pressure persists and momentum fails to recover.

These scenarios reflect a market navigating a delicate balance between macro uncertainty, fading upside momentum, and shifting on-chain behavior. If buyers manage to stablize above the pivotal zone, workflow from traders, funds, and miners could align toward a renewed attempt at higher highs, possibly drawing in fresh participation and forcing a reappraisal of risk in a market that has struggled to sustain meaningful rallies since mid-2024.

The broader context remains important. The interaction between price action, on-chain movements, and market sentiment indicators suggests a market that could see either a short-lived relief rally or a renewed leg lower depending on whether buyers respond decisively around the $74k-$75k zone. As always, traders will be parsing every retail and institutional signal, while analysts emphasize that a broad macro backdrop—ranging from central bank policies to global risk appetite—will continue to shape BTC’s trajectory.

Readers should monitor the next price action near the $74k-$75k support and the $82k threshold for momentum. The next few weeks could reveal whether the bear market finds a durable floor or slides further as longer-term holders reassess risk and exit positions into strength or weakness in the spot market. For ongoing analysis and updates, keep an eye on market commentary that connects price levels with on-chain signals and fund flows, as these elements collectively illuminate the risk-reward landscape for Bitcoin in the near term.

Related reading: BTC price ‘bull trap’ at $76.5K? Five things to know in Bitcoin this week