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Apocalypse now? Top economist says crypto market looks bleak

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The crypto market continued its recent crash today, Feb. 5, with Bitcoin falling below the key support at $70,000 and the valuation of all coins moving to $2.3 trillion from a record high of over $4.2 trillion.

Summary

  • The crypto market crash accelerated on Thursday, with Bitcoin moving below $70,000.
  • Nouriel Roubini, a top economist, has warned of an impending crypto apocalypse.
  • On the positive side, Bitcoin and most altcoins have become highly oversold.

Roubini is ready for a crypto market apocalypse 

The Bitcoin (BTC) sell-off accelerated. And Nouriel Roubini, a top economist popularly known as “Dr. Doom,” expects the top cryptocurrency and most altcoins to continue falling. Why? Not enough people use them.

Bitcoin remains in a bear market, while gold hovers near its all-time high, despite many proponents calling it a safe-haven asset.

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Roubini, who accurately predicted the Global Financial Crisis, also warned that most cryptocurrencies were blockchain in name only. He said:

“95%  of ‘blockchain’ monies and digital services are blockchain in name only. They are private rather than public, centralized rather than decentralized, permissioned rather than permissionless, and validated by a small group of trusted authenticators.”

Doom isn’t alone

Other popular analysts have warned about the crypto industry.

For example, Peter Schiff, a top gold bull has continued to predict that the coin will continue falling over time.

However, other crypto proponents have argued that the ongoing crypto crash is a normal part of the process, citing other crypto crashes in the past. For example, Bitcoin dropped by over 70% in 2022 as companies like Terra and FTX crashed. In a statement, Michael Novogratz said:

“I do think we are at the lower end of the range. What I would say is we have been here before. Anyone who has been in crypto for more than five years realizes that part of the ethos of this whole industry is pain.”

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There are a few reasons why the crypto market may recover in the coming weeks or months. First, the Federal Reserve will likely continue cutting interest rates, which will make risky assets more attractive  

Second, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has moved to the extreme fear zone of 11. In most cases, crypto prices normally rebound when the index moves to the extreme fear zone  as we saw in December last year.

Bitcoin price
BTC price chart | Source: crypto.news

Additionally, the Relative Strength Index of most coins, including Bitcoin and Ethereum, has moved to the extreme fear zone. Other oscillators, like the Stochastics have also moved to the oversold level, where rebounds normally happen.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Crash Destroys Every Crypto Treasury: Is Bankruptcy Next?

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Bitcoin Crash Destroys Every Crypto Treasury: Is Bankruptcy Next?

Crypto treasury companies are under growing financial stress after Bitcoin and Ethereum fell nearly 30% in a week, wiping out an estimated $25 billion in unrealized value across digital asset balance sheets.

Data tracking public crypto treasury firms shows that none currently hold assets above their average cost basis. The sharp drawdown has pushed most treasury strategies into loss territory at the same time, raising concerns about liquidity, financing, and long-term viability.

Unrealized Profit and Loss of Digital Asset Treasuries. Source: Artemis

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Losses Spread Across the Entire Digital Asset Treasury Sector

The sell-off hit treasury-heavy firms simultaneously. 

Large holders recorded the deepest paper losses, dragging cumulative unrealized P&L sharply negative. The losses are unrealized, but the scale matters because it weakens balance sheets and equity valuations.

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As a result, the market has shifted from rewarding crypto accumulation to pricing survival risk.

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Market Premiums Have Collapsed

A key stress signal is the collapse in market net asset value (mNAV), which compares a company’s equity valuation to the value of its crypto holdings.

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Several major treasury firms now trade below an mNAV of 1, meaning the market values their equity at a discount to the assets they hold. This eliminates the ability to raise capital efficiently through equity issuance without dilution.

mNAV Falls Below 1 For Most Crypto Treasuries. Source: CoinGecko

MicroStrategy, one of the largest corporate Bitcoin holders, trades below its asset value despite holding tens of billions of dollars in crypto. 

That discount limits its flexibility to fund further purchases or refinance cheaply.

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MicroStrategy Shares Lost 35% in a Month. Source: Google Finance

Liquidity Drives Bankruptcy Risk

Unrealized losses alone do not cause bankruptcy. The risk rises when falling asset prices collide with leverage, debt maturities, or ongoing cash burn.

Mining firms and treasury vehicles that rely on external financing face the highest exposure. If crypto prices remain depressed, lenders may tighten terms, equity markets may stay closed, and refinancing options could narrow.

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This creates a feedback loop. Lower prices reduce equity value, which limits capital access and increases pressure on balance sheets.

A Stress Phase, Not a Collapse

The current drawdown reflects forced deleveraging and tighter financial conditions rather than a failure of crypto assets themselves. 

However, if prices fail to recover and capital markets remain restrictive, stress could intensify.

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For now, crypto treasury firms remain solvent. But the margin for error has narrowed sharply.

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Bitcoin’s Chance Of Returning To $90K By March Is Slim

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Bitcoin’s Chance Of Returning To $90K By March Is Slim

Key takeawys:

  • Bitcoin fell below $63,000 as weak US job data and concerns over AI industry investments fueled investor risk aversion.

  • Options markets show a 6% chance of Bitcoin returning to $90,000 by March.

Bitcoin (BTC) slid below $63,000 on Thursday, hitting its lowest level since November 2024. The 30% drop since the failed attempt to break $90,500 on Jan. 28 has left traders skeptical of any immediate bullish momentum. The current bearish sentiment is fueled by weak US job market data and rising concerns over massive capital expenditure within the artificial intelligence sector.

Regardless of whether Bitcoin’s slump was triggered by macroeconomic shifts, options traders are now pricing in just 6% odds of BTC reclaiming $90,000 by March.

Deribit March BTC options pricing on Thursday. Source: Deribit / Cointelegraph

On Deribit exchange, the right to buy Bitcoin at $90,000 on March 27 (a call option) traded at $522 on Thursday. This pricing suggests investors see little chance of a massive rally. According to the Black-Scholes model, these options reflect less than 6% odds of Bitcoin reaching $90,000 by late March. For context, the right to sell Bitcoin at $50,000 (a put option) for the same date traded at $1,380, implying a 20% probability of a deeper crash.

Quantum computing risks and forced liquidation fears drive Bitcoin selling

Market participants have reduced crypto exposure due to emerging quantum computing risks and fears of forced liquidations by companies that built Bitcoin reserves through debt and equity. In mid-January, Christopher Wood, global head of equity strategy at Jefferies, removed a 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio, citing the risk of quantum computers reverse-engineering private keys.

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Bitcoin holdings from public companies, USD. Source: bitcontreasuries.net

Strategy (MSTR US), the largest publicly listed company with onchain BTC reserves, recently saw its enterprise value dip to $53.3 billion, while its cost basis sat at $54.2 billion. Japan’s Metaplanet (MPJPY US) faced a similar gap, valued at $2.95 billion against a $3.78 billion acquisition cost. Investors are worried that a prolonged bear market might force these companies to sell their positions to cover debt obligations.

External factors likely contributed to the rise in risk aversion, and even silver, the second-largest tradable asset by market capitalization, suffered a 36% weekly price drop after reaching a $121.70 all-time high on Jan. 29. 

Bitcoin/USD vs. Thomson Reuters, PayPal, Robinhood, Applovin and Silver/USD. Source: TradingView / Cointelegraph

Bitcoin’s 27% weekly decline closely mirrors losses seen in several billion-dollar listed companies, including Thomson Reuters (TRI), PayPal (PYPL), Robinhood (HOOD) and Applovin (APP). 

US employers announced 108,435 layoffs in January, up 118% from the same period in 2025, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas. The surge marked the highest number of January layoffs since 2009, when the economy was nearing the end of its deepest downturn in 80 years.

Related: Next Bitcoin accumulation phase may hinge on credit stress timing–Data

Market sentiment had already weakened after Google (GOOG US) reported on Wednesday that capital expenditure in 2026 is expected to reach $180 billion, up from $91.5 billion in 2025. Shares of tech giant Qualcomm (QCOM US) fell 8% after the company issued weaker growth guidance, citing that supplier capacity has been redirected toward high-bandwidth memory for data centers.

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Traders expect investments in artificial intelligence to take longer to pay off due to rising competition and production bottlenecks, including energy constraints and shortages of memory chips. 

Bitcoin’s slide to $62,300 on Thursday reflects uncertainty around economic growth and US employment, making a rebound toward $90,000 in the near term increasingly unlikely.