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Ark Invest says quantum computing is a long-term risk for bitcoin, not an imminent threat

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Quantum threat for bitcoin wallets (Ark Invest)

Asset manager Ark Invest says quantum computing is a long-term consideration for Bitcoin security but not an imminent threat.

In a Wednesday report co-authored with Unchained, the investment manager said today’s quantum computers are far below the capabilities needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, which relies on elliptic curve encryption to secure wallets.

“Today’s quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin,” wrote authors Dhruv Bansal, co-founder and CSO at Unchained; Tom Honzik, director of custody research at Unchained; and David Puell, research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at Ark Invest.

Even if quantum systems eventually reach that level, the risks will likely emerge gradually and at high cost to attackers, the report said.

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One of the main reasons Bitcoin won’t face an immediate threat is because a major breakthrough in quantum computing would likely disrupt broader internet security first, prompting coordinated responses from governments, technology firms and financial institutions before reaching Bitcoin.

The report comes as long-term investors grapple with the possibility that advances in quantum computing could one day break the cryptography underpinning bitcoin, fueling speculation about a potential security crisis.

Earlier this year, a prominent portfolio strategist at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, said investors should drop 10% bitcoin allocation and add gold instead, due to a quantum threat. The move rattled investors and spooked the digital assets market.

35% of the supply in risk

While researchers broadly agree that such capabilities remain far off, the prospect that powerful quantum machines could eventually crack private keys or older wallet formats has raised concerns among investors about long-term risks to bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem.

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Quantum threat for bitcoin wallets (Ark Invest)
Quantum threat for bitcoin wallets (Ark Invest)

Ark’s report estimated that about 35% of bitcoin’s supply sits in address types theoretically exposed to future quantum attacks, including roughly 1.7 million BTC believed to be lost and about 5.2 million BTC that could be migrated to more secure wallets.

One of those wallets, roughly 1 million BTC, belongs to Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the Bitcoin network.

However, rather than a sudden “Q-day,” Ark Invest sees these progressions unfolding in several different stages over many years. Some investors fear the first attack could occur before 2030, while others suggest it could be “decades away,” the report noted.

Quantum threat in stages (Ark Invest)
Quantum threat in stages (Ark Invest)

The report argues that in either scenarios, it will likely give the Bitcoin community time to upgrade the network with quantum-resistant cryptography and encourage users to move coins to safer address formats.

“The good news is that we already know how to protect against quantum attacks,” the report said.

“The majority of Bitcoin’s supply is held in quantum-resistant addresses, and the remainder is held in quantum-vulnerable addresses that should not be at risk until Stage 3 of our timeline, when a CRQC exists that can break a 256-bit ECC key.”

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The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $70,000 at the time of publication.

Read more: Grayscale sees regulation, not quantum fears, shaping crypto markets in 2026

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Crypto World

Bitcoin rangebound as altcoins rally while derivatives signal downside risk: Crypto Markets Today

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Bitcoin rangebound as altcoins rally while derivatives signal downside risk: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market continued to exhibit signs of choppiness on Friday, with bitcoin trading at $67,000 in the middle of a trading range that spans back to early February.

A selection of altcoins picked up during the lower liquidity Asia hours, prompting the likes of ALGO and RENDER to post double-digit gains over the past 24 hours.

But the wider picture remains the same; the crypto market is trading in a macro downtrend dating back to October, characterized by a series of lower highs nad lower lows.

U.S. equities trade flat on Friday as volatility continues to cool since Donald Trump’s comments about a potential end to the war in Iran on Monday.

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Brent crude oil is trading at $109 a barrel, indicating that an end to the war is perhaps not as close as some analysts are predicting.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum remained subdued, with the extended holiday weekend keeping trading volumes thin. Open interest in both assets was largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.
  • Open interest in Solana futures has climbed to over 65 million SOL, its highest level since Feb. 7. The increase, combined with negative funding rates and an OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, suggests traders are increasingly positioning for downside, with short sellers showing greater conviction.
  • Similar bearish market dynamics are present TRX and BCH.
  • OI in Privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) futures have steadied near 1.70 million ZEC for the third straight day. ZEC’s CVD is also the highest among majors. This combination suggests sustained positioning with strong directional conviction, likely driven by aggressive buying pressure.
  • Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index has declined to 51.28%, the lowest since Feb. The market shows no signs of panic whatsoever despite geopolitical concerns and energy market volatility.
  • Ether’s volatility index has slipped to 72.55%, the lowest since Feb. 26.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts continue to trade pricier than calls, indicating a bias for downside protection.
  • Glassnode said that the dealer gamma exposure below $68,000, all the way down to $50,000 is negative. This means that dealers could sell in a falling market to hedge their exposure, adding to downside volatility.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market has been relatively resilient to crypto’s choppy behavior this week, certain portions of the market have outperformed bitcoin and crypto majors, particularly DeFi and AI tokens.
  • The DeFi Select Index (DFX) is up by 1.3% since midnight UTC, while the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) rose by 1.5%, beating the bitcoin-heavy benchmarks likes the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which is up by just 0.16% on Friday.
  • The outperformance of certain altcoins is symptomatic of a consolidating market. When bitcoin and the majors trade flat, traders often speculate on lower liquidity altcoins. That speculation typically grinds to a halt when bitcoin is back deciding the next major market move.

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Pyth soars 9% following Polymarket integration. Will it rally higher?

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Pyth soars 9% following Polymarket integration. Will it rally higher?

Key takeaways

  • PYTH is up 9% in the last 24 hours, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies.
  • The rally comes following Pyth Network’s integration with Polymarket.

PYTH, the native coin of the Pyth Network, is one of the best performers in the crypto market over the past 24 hours. It could rally higher in the near term as the broader market recovers from Thursday’s slump.

PYTH rallies on Polymarket integration

On Thursday, Pyth Network revealed in a blog post that Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, has integrated Pyth Pro as its data source for a new suite of traditional asset contracts.

The initial offerings include gold, silver, and major equity index ETFs. Polymarket now relies on Pyth Pro’s data to power its daily up/down and daily close markets, with live price charts updated every second to ensure full transparency.

The integration has seen PYTH rally by 9% in the last 24 hours and now trades at $0.0420 per coin. 

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Pyth Pro provides real-time price data through WebSocket, which Polymarket samples every second to display as a live “price to beat” chart. This allows traders to monitor the market’s status relative to their position in real-time.

The selected assets span a wide range of traditional finance, including major equity indices, commodities like gold, silver, WTI crude, and natural gas, along with over a dozen high-profile U.S. equities such as TSLA, COIN, and PLTR.

Polymarket has integrated this real-time data as a key component of its perpetual futures trading platform. Pyth Pro delivers institutional-grade market data directly from top firms, ensuring it is accurate, transparent, and affordable across all asset classes and regions.

To enhance this, Pyth has partnered with industry leaders and government agencies like Cboe, Jane Street, Revolut, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. This collaboration has helped establish a new model to make market data more accessible, accurate, and transparent.

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PYTH eyes $0.050 as bulls step in

The PYTH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient despite the coin adding 9% to its value in the last 24 hours.

The technical indicators have flipped bullish, indicating that the bulls are now in control of the market. The RSI of 63 is well above the neutral 50 and would enter the overbought territory if the rally persists.

PYTH/USDT 4H Chart

The MACD lines are also within the positive region, indicating a strong bullish bias. If the rally continues, PYTH could retest the $0.050 psychological level for the first time since March 17.

However, if the bears regain control, PYTH could retest the Thursday low of $0.038 over the next few hours or days.

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Drift Seeks Contact With The Hacker After $280M Exploit

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Drift Seeks Contact With The Hacker After $280M Exploit

Drift Protocol, a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX), said Friday it had opened onchain contact with wallets tied to funds stolen in the exploit that outside firms have estimated at roughly $280 million to $286 million.

Drift said on X that it had initiated onchain contact with wallets holding the stolen Ether (ETH), seeking to open a line of communication.

The team sent onchain messages from its Ethereum address (0x0934faC) to four wallets linked to the exploiter at the time of publication, urging the attacker to reach out via Blockscan chat. “We are ready to speak,” Drift said.

Onchain messaging has become a common tactic in exploit response, allowing protocols to communicate directly with attackers while preserving anonymity. In past cases, such as the Euler Finance hack, similar outreach led to the partial recovery of funds.

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Drift’s onchain message to the Drift Exploiter on Friday. Source: Etherscan

Anonymous sender tries to pressure the attacker

Drift’s communication came hours after an unknown sender using the ENS name readnow.eth also reached out to wallets linked to the attacker on Thursday via onchain messages.

The sender claimed to know the identities behind the attack and demanded a payment of 1,000 ETH in exchange for withholding information.

Source: Etherscan

The claims could not be independently verified and may represent an attempt to mislead or pressure the wallet holder. The incident highlights how, alongside official communications, unverified messages can circulate onchain after crypto exploits.

Solana fallout keeps spreading

According to SolanaFloor, Drift’s exploit has so far affected at least 20 Solana protocols, including the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Gauntlet, which was estimated to be impacted to the scale of $6.4 million.

Blockchain security platform Cyvers said the impact was still expanding as of Friday morning, with no funds being recovered 48 hours past the attack.

Cyvers said that the attack was likely a “weeks-long, staged operation,” noting that the attacker set up durable nonces, a Solana feature allowing users to pre-sign transactions for future execution, days before the exploit.

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Related: Crypto hackers steal $169M from 34 DeFi protocols in Q1: DefiLlama

“This closely mirrors the Bybit hack, different technique, same root issue: signers unknowingly approving malicious transactions,” Cyvers added.

Some industry observers, including Ledger chief technology officer Charles Guillemet, suggested the exploit may involve North Korea-linked actors, though details remain unconfirmed.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

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