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Ark Invest says quantum computing is a long-term risk for bitcoin, not an imminent threat

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Quantum threat for bitcoin wallets (Ark Invest)

Asset manager Ark Invest says quantum computing is a long-term consideration for Bitcoin security but not an imminent threat.

In a Wednesday report co-authored with Unchained, the investment manager said today’s quantum computers are far below the capabilities needed to break Bitcoin’s cryptography, which relies on elliptic curve encryption to secure wallets.

“Today’s quantum systems lack the capabilities required to compromise Bitcoin,” wrote authors Dhruv Bansal, co-founder and CSO at Unchained; Tom Honzik, director of custody research at Unchained; and David Puell, research trading analyst and associate portfolio manager for digital assets at Ark Invest.

Even if quantum systems eventually reach that level, the risks will likely emerge gradually and at high cost to attackers, the report said.

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One of the main reasons Bitcoin won’t face an immediate threat is because a major breakthrough in quantum computing would likely disrupt broader internet security first, prompting coordinated responses from governments, technology firms and financial institutions before reaching Bitcoin.

The report comes as long-term investors grapple with the possibility that advances in quantum computing could one day break the cryptography underpinning bitcoin, fueling speculation about a potential security crisis.

Earlier this year, a prominent portfolio strategist at Jefferies, Christopher Wood, said investors should drop 10% bitcoin allocation and add gold instead, due to a quantum threat. The move rattled investors and spooked the digital assets market.

35% of the supply in risk

While researchers broadly agree that such capabilities remain far off, the prospect that powerful quantum machines could eventually crack private keys or older wallet formats has raised concerns among investors about long-term risks to bitcoin and the broader digital asset ecosystem.

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Quantum threat for bitcoin wallets (Ark Invest)
Quantum threat for bitcoin wallets (Ark Invest)

Ark’s report estimated that about 35% of bitcoin’s supply sits in address types theoretically exposed to future quantum attacks, including roughly 1.7 million BTC believed to be lost and about 5.2 million BTC that could be migrated to more secure wallets.

One of those wallets, roughly 1 million BTC, belongs to Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of the Bitcoin network.

However, rather than a sudden “Q-day,” Ark Invest sees these progressions unfolding in several different stages over many years. Some investors fear the first attack could occur before 2030, while others suggest it could be “decades away,” the report noted.

Quantum threat in stages (Ark Invest)
Quantum threat in stages (Ark Invest)

The report argues that in either scenarios, it will likely give the Bitcoin community time to upgrade the network with quantum-resistant cryptography and encourage users to move coins to safer address formats.

“The good news is that we already know how to protect against quantum attacks,” the report said.

“The majority of Bitcoin’s supply is held in quantum-resistant addresses, and the remainder is held in quantum-vulnerable addresses that should not be at risk until Stage 3 of our timeline, when a CRQC exists that can break a 256-bit ECC key.”

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The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading around $70,000 at the time of publication.

Read more: Grayscale sees regulation, not quantum fears, shaping crypto markets in 2026

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Crypto World

Why bitcoin and crypto aren’t ready for real-world adoption

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Why bitcoin and crypto aren't ready for real-world adoption

For more than a decade, the cryptocurrency industry has promised to reinvent money. Permissionless. Trustless. Borderless. Immune to the recurring failures of traditional finance.

Yet, commonly cited estimates of global ownership all languish below 10% — and the proportion actually using crypto for payments and other tangible uses is likely even less. After billions in venture funding, endless meme coins and nonstop media cycles, crypto remains a niche product held by a tiny fraction of the world’s population. The uncomfortable question is whether crypto has delivered anything indispensable to everyday people.

It hasn’t.

Built for speculators, not users

The largest smart-contract network in the world introduced programmable finance and launched an entire pseudo-decentralized ecosystem. But the onchain experience remains daunting. Users must manage private keys, navigate fragmented exchanges, parse multiple token standards, cross a variety of bridges, and absorb transaction fees that spike without warning. For developers, this is manageable. For everyday users, it’s prohibitive.

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One high-speed blockchain marketed itself as the answer: faster, cheaper, higher throughput. Repeated network outages told a different story. Financial infrastructure that goes offline repeatedly cannot realistically serve as the backbone of global commerce. Meanwhile, the network’s enthusiastic embrace of memecoins left ordinary users holding worthless tokens while insiders quietly exited.

Another major project positioned itself as a bridge between crypto and banking institutions. Retail adoption for everyday spending remains nonexistent. Most market activity still centers on speculation rather than commerce, while insiders continue liquidating their personal holdings into the hands of true believers.

Across ecosystems, the pattern repeats: heavy trading volume, much of it wash trading, masking modest real-world usage. Founders unlock their holdings and dump on the people who believed in them most.

Permissionless in theory, custodial in practice

Crypto markets celebrate self-custody and decentralization. In practice, most users hold assets on centralized exchanges because self-custodial wallets remain incomprehensible to anyone outside the industry.

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Those exchanges layer on leverage, derivatives and yield instruments that everyday people neither understand nor want. Deposits are frequently rehypothecated — reused as collateral elsewhere — creating synthetic exposure that echoes the very financial engineering crypto claimed to replace. When markets turn volatile, these structures amplify forced liquidations. Price swings cascade through leveraged positions, and true onchain price discovery becomes impossible to separate from derivatives-driven noise.

The result is a paradox: a technology designed to eliminate opaque balance sheets has spawned a new generation of them.

The adoption ceiling

If crypto were solving clear everyday problems, utilization would reflect it. But paying rent in crypto remains a fantasy. Small businesses won’t price goods in volatile native tokens and remain hesitant about stablecoins. Transaction fees are unpredictable. Wallet recovery intimidates new users. Interfaces are confusing and fragmented.

For most holders, crypto is something to buy and hope appreciates, not something to use. Many barely understand what the underlying technology does. A financial revolution that requires tutorials, Discord communities and gas fee calculators has not crossed into mainstream simplicity. People don’t want another tutorial. They want utility they can actually control.

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The UX problem no one wants to admit

Most crypto products are built by engineers for engineers, with little consideration for users encountering the technology for the first time. Slippage tolerances, bridging risk, liquidity pools and yield strategies greet newcomers before they’ve completed a single transaction. A single mistake can permanently destroy funds. The onboarding experience is less like opening a bank account and more like configuring a server.

Simply put: The user experience is terrible.

Contrast this with modern consumer finance apps, where transfers are intuitive and costly errors are rare.

Mass adoption will not come from more chains or ever-more-complicated concepts that users must untangle. It will come from abstraction, from making the underlying complexity invisible, the way Apple and Microsoft once hid the command line behind the operating system. Crypto needs to be as easy as sending a text message. Until it is, it will stay in its niche.

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The synthetic spiral

Perhaps the most underexamined problem in crypto markets is the dominance of offchain financialization. Perpetual futures routinely exceed spot volume. Leveraged tokens multiply exposure. Lending desks re-collateralize deposits. Wrapped assets circulate across chains. The same underlying token can support multiple layers of claims simultaneously.

The consequences are not theoretical. Bitcoin recently lost half its value, with billions in leveraged long positions liquidated in single-day cascades. Forced selling triggered more forced selling. Prices deviated violently from any reasonable measure of fundamental value, and retail participants, overwhelmingly positioned long, absorbed the damage. The crash was not driven by a change in Bitcoin’s utility or a collapse in adoption. It was driven by the very leverage and synthetic structures the market had layered on top of it.

This is the trap: In trying to escape traditional finance’s complexity, crypto rebuilt it, only faster, more automated and with fewer second chances.

What needs to change

Moving beyond minuscule crypto use requires an honest shift in priorities.

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  • Simplify the experience. Key management, gas abstraction and cross-chain interaction must become invisible. The technology should disappear behind the task.
  • Prioritize real utility over token velocity. Products should enable payments, savings and transfers in ways that are tangibly better than existing systems, usable in daily life rather than merely speculative.
  • Ensure transparent backing and verifiable supply. Onchain proof must replace opaque leverage structures. No exceptions.
  • Deliver predictable costs. Fee volatility is incompatible with financial infrastructure. Everyday tools shouldn’t behave like auction houses.
  • Design for humans, not developers. Consumer-grade UX is not cosmetic. It is existential.

A crossroads

Speculation built awareness. It funded infrastructure. It attracted talent. But speculation alone does not build permanence.

The next chapter of crypto will not be written in token prices or meme cycles. It will be written by projects that quietly integrate into daily life, enabling transactions that are simpler, cheaper and more transparent than the systems they aim to replace. That means tools ordinary people can actually use, seamlessly integrated into their daily lives. Yields that don’t require a Ph.D. to understand. Payment rails that feel as natural as the apps people already trust, backed by infrastructure that serious finance demands.

Until then, the promise of the financial revolution remains exactly that.

And the emperor, for all the code written in his name, still doesn’t have a wallet most people can use.

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Tether Backs Ark Labs in $5.2M Round to Expand Stablecoins on Bitcoin

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Tether Backs Ark Labs in $5.2M Round to Expand Stablecoins on Bitcoin

Tether’s investment arm has invested in Ark Labs, the developer of the programmable Bitcoin infrastructure Arkade, as part of a $5.2 million funding round to expand stablecoin capabilities on the Bitcoin network.

According to Thursday’s announcement from Ark Labs, the investment is intended to support infrastructure that enables stablecoins such as USDT (USDT) to be issued, transferred and settled more efficiently on Bitcoin (BTC).

The Lugano, Switzerland-based startup is developing an execution layer designed to support instant and programmable transactions on Bitcoin. The funding round brings the company’s total funding to $7.7 million.

Other investors in the seed round include Sats Ventures and Contribution Capital, with participation from Anchorage Digital. Specifics on the sizes of the various stakes were not disclosed.

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