Coinbase has filed with the CFTC to activate Trade at Settlement for XRP futures on May 1, placing XRP alongside Bitcoin, Ethereum, gold, and crude oil as an asset institutional traders can execute at the official settlement price.

Coinbase filed with the CFTC on April 21 to roll out Trade at Settlement for XRP futures starting May 1. The filing covers both nano XRP and standard full-sized XRP futures contracts on Coinbase Derivatives. TAS lets large institutions execute block orders at the official 4:00 p.m. settlement price, removing the intraday execution risk that distorts costs when trading at volume.

Coinbase XRP Institutional Trading TAS Closes the Final Execution Gap

As crypto.news reported, the CFTC filing outlines how TAS will support block trades under the Commodity Exchange Act, with Coinbase’s Market Regulation team overseeing all TAS activity to ensure market fairness and prevent manipulation. TAS has been standard in traditional commodity futures markets because institutional participants managing large positions cannot afford to execute against live, fluctuating intraday prices without moving the market against themselves. By locking in the settlement price, TAS makes cost management transparent and position sizing precise. The 247 Wall St. analysis noted that in March, Ripple Prime added Coinbase’s XRP futures to its $3 trillion clearing platform, meaning institutional clients can already route XRP trades through Ripple to Coinbase Derivatives. Adding TAS on May 1 closes the last execution gap in that institutional pipeline.

XRP’s Institutional Infrastructure Is Expanding Simultaneously

The TAS launch is arriving as XRP’s broader institutional footprint grows on multiple fronts. As crypto.news documented, Goldman Sachs has disclosed a $153.8 million position across four XRP ETFs, becoming the largest known institutional holder among the top 30 disclosures, which collectively control approximately $211 million in XRP ETF exposure. Total XRP ETF assets under management have now reached $1.53 billion with 773 million XRP in custody, and as crypto.news tracked, the funds have not recorded a single outflow day since April 9, the longest positive streak in their history. A Coinbase and EY-Parthenon survey of 351 institutional investors found that 25% plan to add XRP to their portfolios in 2026, with 65% citing regulatory clarity as the single condition holding them back.

The Regulatory Foundation Behind the TAS Move

The TAS expansion into XRP carries direct regulatory context. The SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity in March 2026, giving the asset the same legal standing as Bitcoin and Ethereum under the commodity framework that governs Coinbase’s TAS-eligible products. As crypto.news noted, the commodity classification removed a key legal barrier that had previously complicated institutional deployment in XRP futures, and the TAS mechanism is designed precisely for the institutional buyer profile that commodity frameworks attract. If sustained block trade flows through TAS materialize after May 1, they would represent the clearest on-chain signal yet that institutional demand for XRP is converting from stated intent into actual capital deployment.

Coinbase’s Market Regulation team will oversee all TAS activity for XRP futures, and the feature will go live on May 1 barring any CFTC objection to the filed documentation.

Brazilian authorities have moved to shut down 27 prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket.

The decision, announced Friday, follows a directive from the Ministry of Finance and enforcement by the National Telecommunications Agency (Anatel), according to state-owned news outlet Agência Brasil. Authorities claimed that such services fall outside Brazil’s current legal framework and therefore operate illegally.

“We have been monitoring the evolution of this sector in Brazil, which suffered a period of anarchy because there were no rules, no oversight, from 2018 to 2022,” Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan reportedly said during a press conference at the Palácio do Planalto.

The crackdown follows Resolution 5.298 issued by Brazil’s National Monetary Council (CMN) on Friday, which takes effect in early May and sharply limits what prediction market platforms can offer. Under the new rules, contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or social events are banned, as authorities consider them closer to gambling than financial investments.

Only contracts linked to economic indicators, such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices, will remain allowed and fall under financial market oversight.

Related: Kalshi bans 3 US politicians for betting on their own election races

Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk

Durigan claimed that prediction markets could deepen household debt and expose users to financial harm. “At a time when we are working to reduce debt levels among families, small businesses, and students, we must also prevent new forms of harmful indebtedness,” he said.

The blocked platforms include a mix of international and Brazil-focused services, with major names including Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood (via its forecasting feature) and Fanatics Markets.

Banned prediction markets in Brazil. Source: Agência Brasil

Other affected platforms include ProphetX, Hedgehog Markets, Novig, Polyswipe, PRED Exchange and Stride, alongside several Brazil-focused services such as Palpita, Cravei, Previsao, and MercadoPred.

Related: Prediction market battle gets closer to Supreme Court

More countries ban prediction markets

A growing number of jurisdictions have moved to ban prediction markets, often folding them into gambling or financial regulations. Several European nations, including France, Belgium and the Netherlands, have blocked or penalized platforms operating without authorization.

In the United States, the situation is more fragmented, with an ongoing tug-of-war between federal regulators and individual states over prediction markets.

Magazine: How to fix suspected insider trading on Polymarket and Kalshi

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Brazilian authorities have intensified a crackdown on prediction-market platforms, ordering the blocking of 27 services, including Kalshi and Polymarket. The move was announced in a joint escalation by the Finance Ministry and enforcement agencies, with state media Agência Brasil confirming the action. Officials argued that these platforms operate outside Brazil’s current legal framework and are therefore illegal.

According to Agência Brasil, the enforcement follows a directive from the National Monetary Council (CMN) and marks a shift toward tighter oversight. Finance Ministry executive secretary Dario Durigan described the regulatory stance as a response to a period of regulatory “anarchy” in the sector from 2018 to 2022, signaling a transition to structured rules intended to prevent unregulated financial activity.

The crackdown is anchored in CMN Resolution 5.298, issued on Friday and set to take effect in early May. The regulation sharply curtails the scope of prediction-market offerings: contracts tied to sports, politics, entertainment, or other social events are banned, with authorities classifying them as closer to gambling than traditional financial investments. Only contracts linked to economic indicators—such as inflation, interest rates, exchange rates, or commodity prices—will remain permissible and will fall under financial-market oversight.

Related platform activity has drawn attention from industry observers, including prior coverage of market-betting platforms and their governance. For example, Kalshi’s governance actions have recently been scrutinized in other jurisdictions as part of a broader debate about insider-trading concerns and regulatory compliance.

Brazil flags prediction platforms as debt risk

Durigan argued that prediction markets can amplify household indebtedness and expose participants to financial harm at a time when policy aims include reducing debt burdens for families, small businesses, and students. He suggested that curbing exposure to non-productive debt forms is a key objective of the new framework.

The list of platforms affected by the ban comprises a mix of international and Brazil-focused services. Notable names among those blocked include Kalshi, Polymarket, PredictIt, Robinhood’s forecast feature, and Fanatics Markets. Several smaller and domestic platforms were also targeted, reflecting a broad sweep across the sector.

• Kalshi
• Polymarket
• PredictIt
• Robinhood (Forecasting)
• Fanatics Markets
• ProphetX
• Hedgehog Markets
• Novig
• Polyswipe
• PRED Exchange
• Stride
• Palpita
• Cravei
• Previsao
• MercadoPred
• And other Brazil-focused services

Ahead of the May effective date, the CMN’s resolution delineates the boundary between permissible financial-market instruments and prohibited speculative bets presented as market forecasts. The policy is designed to channel market activity into instruments that regulators deem financial in nature, rather than gambling, and to provide clearer supervisory oversight for platforms and participants.

What changes for market participants and platform operators

From the perspective of compliance teams, the new rules impose several practical shifts. Prediction-market operators must implement licensing or registration under the established financial-market framework, align product offerings with economic-indicator-based contracts, and strengthen KYC/AML procedures to satisfy the oversight regime. For financial institutions and banks, the threshold effect is a narrowing of permissible partnerships or facilitation services for unfettered speculative markets, potentially influencing cross-border flows and data-sharing arrangements.

For Brazil-based users, the immediate effect is a reduction in the availability of prediction-market products and a narrowing of hedging or speculative tools that rely on non-traditional event outcomes. While the prohibition targets non-financial event contracts, market participants seeking exposure to macroeconomic or commodity-price developments can still access allowed instruments within the new framework, subject to the appropriate regulatory oversight.

Regional and global regulatory context

The Brazilian action sits within a broader, evolving regulatory pattern. A growing cohort of jurisdictions has moved to ban or tightly regulate prediction markets, often recasting them under gambling or financial-regulatory regimes. In Europe, several member states have restricted or penalized platforms operating without authorization, while the broader trend emphasizes consumer protection, anti-fraud safeguards, and prudential risk management.

In the United States, policy and enforcement around prediction markets remain fragmented, with ongoing tensions between federal authorities and state-level regulators over permissible operations. The Brazilian case adds to a global mosaic in which regulators are increasingly scrutinizing cross-border platforms and the reliability of dispute resolution, KYC/AML standards, and traceable ownership structures.

From a policy perspective, the Brazil action reinforces several themes: the alignment of prediction-market activity with formal financial instruments, the emphasis on debt-risk mitigation for households, and the push for clear licensing and oversight for platforms that reach Brazilian users. For multinational operators and custodians, the actions underscore the importance of jurisdiction-specific licensing, risk frameworks, and data-transfer arrangements necessary to operate legally in diverse markets.

Compliance, licensing, and enforcement implications

Operators—particularly those with cross-border reach—will need to reassess product catalogs, geographic availability, and compliance controls. The enforcement approach in Brazil signals a willingness to actively police non-compliant services and to enforce interagency coordination between the Ministry of Finance, Anatel, and other regulatory bodies. For exchanges and banks that support related activities, the ruling may affect how they structure custody arrangements, settlement processes, and Know-Your-Customer/Anti-Money Laundering programs to remain within permitted use cases.

The case also raises questions about licensing timetables, potential transitional periods, and the degree of alignment with international standards. As CMN Resolution 5.298 takes effect, firms will need to monitor developments in domestic enforcement, anticipate future rule refinements, and adjust risk assessments accordingly. Analysts and compliance teams should track any further guidance from Brazil’s monetary authorities regarding acceptable contract types, reporting obligations, and supervisory expectations for ongoing operations in the country.

Overall, the Brazilian action highlights a tightening of regulatory oversight over prediction markets and a preference for instrument classes with clearer financial-market characteristics. Institutions with exposure to global platforms or Brazilian users should prepare for tighter controls, clearer licensing paths, and enhanced due diligence requirements as regulatory authorities continue to refine the framework for these market-forecasting tools.

Closing perspective: The ongoing regulatory consolidation around prediction markets suggests that institutions will need to prioritize clear governance, robust compliance programs, and vigilant monitoring of cross-border activity. As jurisdictions converge on stricter oversight, market participants should anticipate further policy developments and the potential for additional platform-level restrictions in other regions.

DoorDash has begun building stablecoin payment infrastructure on Tempo, the Layer-1 blockchain incubated by Stripe and Paradigm, to pay delivery workers and merchants across more than 40 countries at near-instant settlement speeds and fixed US dollar fees, in one of the largest real-world stablecoin payment deployments by a publicly traded US company to date.

DoorDash announced on April 21 that it is building stablecoin payment infrastructure with Tempo to pay its delivery workers and merchants across more than 40 countries, choosing on-chain settlement to solve the fragmentation of running global payouts across dozens of different payment rails, currencies, and regulatory environments simultaneously. “If we can get merchants and Dashers their money faster, and do that in a way that’s affordable for them, that’s a no-brainer for the entire ecosystem,” said DoorDash’s head of payments.

DoorDash Stablecoin Payments Tempo Partnership Targets the Global Payout Problem

DoorDash’s operational complexity is substantial. Its three-sided marketplace connects consumers, merchants, and delivery workers across more than 40 countries, each with different settlement timelines, FX spreads, and compliance requirements. A payout flow that works in Atlanta may require an entirely different infrastructure stack in Helsinki, Mexico City, or São Paulo. Stablecoin settlement compresses that variability. As crypto.news reported, Tempo is positioned as a payments-first blockchain with sub-second deterministic finality, fees paid in dollar-denominated stablecoins rather than a volatile native gas token, reserved blockspace for payment workloads, and ISO 20022 compliance for enterprise reconciliation. DoorDash chose Tempo over other stablecoin options because of what it described as Tempo’s “payments focus and enterprise readiness,” noting the platform’s experience combining crypto technology with the regulatory and operational requirements of large-scale enterprise deployments.

Tempo’s Growing Institutional Ecosystem

The DoorDash announcement was one of several that landed the same day, with Tempo simultaneously confirming that Stripe, Coastal Community Bank, Fifth Third Bank, and ARQ, a Latin American fintech operating in Mexico, Colombia, Argentina, and Brazil, are all now running or preparing to run payment operations on its stablecoin rails. As crypto.news documented, Stripe, which processed $1.9 trillion in payment volume in 2025, is using Tempo as a core blockchain for its money-management products, allowing businesses to hold, send, and receive stablecoins alongside traditional currencies. Klarna has announced plans to launch a stablecoin on Tempo’s mainnet, while Visa, Nubank, and Shopify had been cited as early ecosystem participants during the testnet phase. Tempo itself raised $500 million at a $5 billion valuation ahead of its March 2026 mainnet launch, with Stripe and Paradigm as founding investors and Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang serving as CEO.

What the DoorDash Move Signals for Enterprise Stablecoin Adoption

The DoorDash deployment is meaningful precisely because DoorDash is not a crypto company. It is a publicly traded consumer platform that generated nearly $75 billion in merchant sales last year and whose primary relationship with payments is operational rather than speculative. As crypto.news tracked, Tempo was explicitly designed to solve the practical obstacles that have prevented enterprises from adopting blockchain rails at scale, including network congestion, volatile gas fees, and settlement delays. For DoorDash, the stablecoin integration is invisible to end users: merchants and Dashers receive funds faster and at lower cost without interacting with blockchain tooling directly. Stablecoin settlement on Tempo compresses international payout windows from the standard one to three business days on ACH-equivalent rails toward near-instantaneous finality, the same performance benchmark that makes card networks indispensable for real-time commerce.

DoorDash said it will start with the payout flows where faster and cheaper settlement creates the most immediate value, prioritizing the cross-border corridors where traditional rail delays and FX costs are most punishing for merchants and delivery workers.

Ripple released a detailed four-phase roadmap on April 20 to protect the XRP Ledger from future quantum computing attacks, with Phase 2 testing already underway, targeting full post-quantum cryptography implementation no later than 2028, as SoFi separately enabled XRP deposits for retail users the same week.

Ripple published a four-phase roadmap on April 20 to make the XRP Ledger resistant to quantum computing attacks, with Ayo Akinyele, Senior Director of Engineering at RippleX, stating that the quantum threat has shifted “from theoretical to credible, and preparation timelines now matter.” The roadmap targets full quantum readiness no later than 2028 and was developed in response to Google Quantum AI research showing that approximately 500,000 physical qubits could eventually break the elliptic curve cryptography that secures most blockchain wallets today.

XRP Ledger Quantum Resistant Roadmap Covers Four Phases Through 2028

As crypto.news reported, the roadmap is structured around two parallel objectives: preserving XRPL’s operational performance throughout the transition, and building contingency measures in case a quantum threat arrives earlier than projected. Phase 1 establishes a Quantum-Day emergency protocol that would immediately block classical signatures across the network and direct users to migrate to quantum-safe accounts using zero-knowledge proofs to prove key ownership without exposing vulnerable cryptographic material. Phase 2 is already active in the first half of 2026, with Ripple’s applied cryptography team testing NIST-standardized post-quantum algorithms against real XRPL workloads and benchmarking their effects on signature size, storage, bandwidth, and throughput. Core engineer Denis Angell has already deployed ML-DSA quantum-safe signatures on XRPL’s AlphaNet as part of this phase. Phase 3, targeted for the second half of 2026, will deploy candidate post-quantum signature schemes alongside existing elliptic curve signatures on Devnet for developer testing without touching mainnet. Phase 4 proposes a formal XRPL network amendment by 2028 implementing native post-quantum cryptography at full production scale.

XRPL’s Structural Advantages in a Post-Quantum Migration

The XRP Ledger has two protocol-native features that give it a migration advantage over Bitcoin and Ethereum. XRPL supports native key rotation, allowing users to replace cryptographic keys without changing their account address or moving funds, meaning holders will not need to create new accounts or transfer assets during the upgrade. Ethereum has no protocol-level equivalent, meaning any post-quantum migration on Ethereum would require users to manually move all assets to entirely new accounts, a process significantly complicated by smart contract dependencies. XRPL also supports deterministic seed-based key generation, which enables coordinated, network-wide cryptographic upgrades without requiring individual manual action from every holder. As crypto.news documented, Project Eleven, a quantum security research firm that raised $20 million in a January 2026 Series A, is partnering with Ripple on validator-level testing, developer benchmarking, and a post-quantum custody wallet prototype as part of Phase 2 delivery.

The Broader Quantum Threat to Crypto Infrastructure

Ripple’s roadmap is the most detailed public post-quantum commitment from any major blockchain network and positions XRPL ahead of the broader industry response. As crypto.news tracked, Coinbase’s cryptography advisory board, which includes Stanford’s Dan Boneh and Ethereum Foundation researcher Justin Drake, published a 50-page analysis the same week warning that post-quantum transitions across blockchains, wallets, and exchanges could take years to execute safely even after technical standards are in place. Bitcoin developers remain split between optional opt-in upgrades and more forceful migration measures, while Ethereum is targeting 2029 through a multi-fork roadmap. XRP traded at $1.42 on April 20 when the announcement landed, rising approximately 5% intraday on the news before settling back. On the same day, SoFi separately confirmed that XRP deposits are now available for retail users on its platform, though external wallet withdrawals remain restricted pending further regulatory review.

Ripple said the 2028 target is contingent on successful Devnet testing in Phase 3, ecosystem-wide coordination with validators, and passage of a formal network amendment, each of which introduces its own execution risk to the timeline.

XRP has climbed more than 30% over the last three months, and fresh on-chain and market signals are fueling a cautiously constructive outlook for the XRP/USD pair. As institutional interest, token flows, and a key technical setup align, traders are watching whether the momentum can extend into late spring and early summer.

Analysts are dialing in on a confluence of factors: a notable outflow of XRP from exchanges, renewed large-holder accumulation signals, and a tilt in U.S. spot XRP ETF demand. Together, these elements paint a picture of a market shifting away from near-term selling pressure and toward a more sustained demand dynamic, even as the price hovers near a critical technical juncture.

Key takeaways

• Exchange outflows are signaling a shift of XRP into private wallets or custody, with nearly 35 million XRP leaving exchanges in the last 24 hours—the sixth-largest daily outflow of the year, according to Santiment.
• U.S. spot XRP ETFs have seen three consecutive weeks of net inflows, totaling about $82.88 million as of Saturday, lifting assets under management to roughly $1.1 billion, per SoSoValue data.
• Whale flows have turned positive, with CryptoQuant data showing the 90-day moving average moving back above zero, indicating accumulation by larger holders.
• Technically, XRP/USD sits inside a long-running falling wedge, with a potential 30% move higher by June if the price breaks toward the wedge’s upper boundary, targeting the 50-week EMA near $1.87–$1.89.

On-chain and custody signals bolster the bull case

Exchange outflows have historically accompanied rebounds in XRP price, and the latest spike of around 35 million XRP moving out of exchanges in a 24-hour window marks a notable moment in the current cycle. Santiment highlights that this is among the year’s larger daily outflows, suggesting a concentration of tokens in private wallets or custody rather than ready-for-sale stock on exchanges.

Looking back, similar outflow surges have preceded meaningful upside moves. In March, a pronounced exchange withdrawal spike preceded roughly a 20% price rebound, while February’s outflow surge foreshadowed a near 50% rally. Although past performance is not a guarantee of future results, the pattern adds weight to the view that lower sell-side availability could support higher prices if demand remains steady.

The current outflow narrative dovetails with other positive signals from the XRP ecosystem, offering a more data-driven rationale for optimism over the near term. As long as private wallets and custody arrangements continue to grow while on-exchange liquidity remains constrained, the downside pressure from day-to-day selling may subside, allowing other buyers to push the price higher on favorable momentum.

Institutional demand rises as XRP ETFs attract capital

Institutional interest appears to be crystallizing through benchmark XRP spot exchange-traded products in the United States. SoSoValue data shows three consecutive weeks of net inflows into XRP spot ETFs, with total inflows around $82.88 million through the most recent tally. This flow has helped push the aggregate assets under management for XRP ETFs to roughly $1.1 billion, a milestone that underscores growing institutional exposure to the token.

For traders and investors, ETF inflows can be a proxy for broader appetite among institutions and wealth managers. The persistence of inflows suggests a more constructive stance toward XRP-related products, especially when combined with the custody-driven on-chain dynamics mentioned above. While the ETF channel is just one of several data points, it reinforces the case that demand for XRP products remains more robust than it did earlier in the year.

Whale activity confirms persistent accumulation

Beyond exchange outflows and ETF demand, large-holder behavior is flashing a positive signal. CryptoQuant data indicate that XRP whale flows have flipped to a net-positive regime, with the 90-day moving average rising above zero after spending most of early 2026 in negative territory. Historically, positive whale-flow environments have preceded notable price upswings, lending additional credibility to the current bulge of accumulation by bigger holders.

In the context of the broader accumulation narrative, the shift in whale behavior aligns with the exchange outflows and ETF inflows. When whales accumulate and tokens move into non-exchange custody, the supply-side pressure from sell orders tends to ease, while demand-side pressure from institutions and retail buyers looking to participate in a potential breakout can sustain upside momentum.

Technical setup signals a potential 30% lift, with clear risks

From a chart perspective, XRP/USD has spent a lengthy period trapped inside a falling wedge—two converging downward-sloping lines that have defined the asset’s path for nearly two years. Recent price action has rebounded off the wedge’s lower boundary, setting the stage for a test of the upper boundary. If the pair can clear resistance near the wedge’s apex, the technical picture points toward a measured upside objective near the 50-week exponential moving average, around $1.87 to $1.89. That zone also coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, positioning the move roughly 30% above current prices by June, according to the prevailing technical framework drawn from weekly charts.

On the flip side, a decisive break below the lower trend line would undermine the bullish setup. A break that closes below the wedge could open the door to a revisit of support near the apex point, with a potential retreat toward the $0.98 level—the wedge apex coinciding with the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement.

For traders, the key takeaway is that the current arrangement requires confirmation. The convergence of on-chain outflows, ETF inflows, and positive whale activity lowers the risk of a sudden, sharp pullback, but the technical pattern will remain invalidated unless XRP breaks decisively above the wedge’s resistance. If the price sustains a move into the upper boundary and beyond, the upside path becomes clearer, but any erosion of the momentum or a return of selling pressure could shift the risk-reward balance toward the downside.

What readers should watch next

As May unfolds, the market will be testing whether the confluence of outflows, custody trends, ETF inflows, and whale accumulation translates into a durable uptrend for XRP. Investors should watch two interlinked developments: whether exchange outflows maintain their tempo, signaling ongoing token migration away from tradable liquidity, and whether ETF inflows sustain their momentum, indicating continued institutional appetite for XRP exposure. Additionally, the price action around the wedge’s resistance will be a critical signal for the near-term trajectory. If XRP can establish a breakout above the upper boundary with convincing volume, the medium-term case for a roughly 30% rise by mid-year strengthens. If not, a revisit to the wedge’s lower bound or apex could introduce renewed caution for bulls.