Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Ark Invest’s Bitcoin ETF hit by $30m outflow as spot funds see $171m drain

Published

on

Ark Invest’s Bitcoin ETF hit by $30m outflow as spot funds see $171m drain

Ark Invest’s Bitcoin ETF saw one of the sharpest single‑day outflows of the month this week, as investors yanked tens of millions of dollars from spot products just as Bitcoin slid back toward the mid‑$60,000s.

Summary

  • U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $171 million in net outflows on March 27, with Ark Invest’s ARK 21Shares fund among the hardest hit.
  • Ark’s CEO Cathie Wood, long one of Bitcoin’s loudest institutional bulls, now faces a tape where her flagship crypto vehicle is bleeding capital even as she reiterates long‑term upside.
  • The reversal in flows undercuts part of the “institutional floor” narrative that has supported Bitcoin since U.S. spot ETFs launched in early 2024.

The latest data show U.S. spot Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs posted a combined $171.12 million in net outflows on March 27, the largest one‑day withdrawal in more than three weeks and a stark contrast to the steady inflows seen earlier this month. According to ETF flow trackers, BlackRock’s IBIT led redemptions with roughly $41.9 million out, followed by Fidelity’s FBTC at about $32 million, while Ark Invest’s ARK 21Shares ETF saw approximately $30.5 million leave in a single session. Those exits hit as Bitcoin slipped back toward $70,000, with selling pressure from ETF desks reinforcing a broader risk‑off move across digital assets.

For Cathie Wood, the numbers add short‑term pain to a long‑running conviction trade. The Ark founder has for years argued that Bitcoin could eventually reach $500,000 if corporate treasuries and institutional allocators push even 5% of portfolios into the asset, telling CNBC at the SALT Conference that “the price will be ten‑fold what it is today” if that thesis plays out. Ark has backed that view with positioning, building exposure across vehicles such as its Next Generation Internet ETF and, more recently, via its ARK 21Shares spot product, which quickly became one of the most closely watched newcomers in the U.S. ETF lineup.

Advertisement

Yet the latest redemption wave shows how tactical those same institutions can be when macro conditions sour. Market data providers say investors are rotating out of risk assets on the back of sticky inflation, uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s rate‑cut path, and escalating geopolitical tension around Iran, all of which have pushed volatility higher and forced some fast‑money players to de‑risk. “This pattern of inflows and outflows is becoming a key indicator of institutional positioning,” one ETF flow note observed, pointing out that even newer funds and smaller trusts such as VanEck’s HODL and Grayscale’s mini‑BTC product joined Ark’s ARKB in posting redemptions.

The move matters because Ark has been central to the story that spot ETFs would anchor Bitcoin with a deeper, more stable institutional base. Earlier in March, U.S. spot funds briefly flipped back to net inflows, including a day when the complex added about $167 million in fresh cash, suggesting some large accounts were willing to buy dips. That pattern appears to have reversed, at least temporarily, with several consecutive outflow days culminating in Thursday’s $171 million drawdown, undercutting the idea that ETF demand alone can offset macro shocks or positioning washes in derivatives.

Still, most analysts tracking Ark and its peers see the current outflows as tactical rather than a structural rejection of Bitcoin. Flows tend to whipsaw around options expiries, CPI releases, and geopolitical headlines, and Ark’s own research — including its latest Big Ideas 2026 report — continues to frame Bitcoin as a multi‑cycle, high‑conviction allocation rather than a quarter‑to‑quarter trade. For investors watching Wood’s ETF specifically, the question now is whether renewed inflows reappear on the next bout of weakness, or whether this week’s $30‑plus million exit marks the start of a longer period in which Ark’s name recognition is not enough to keep nervous capital from heading to the sidelines.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

Prediction Markets Now Behave Like Stock Trading Platforms

Published

on

Prediction markets have processed more than $154 billion in total volume, with daily trading on Polymarket alone often exceeding $300 million.

That scale forces a more important question. These platforms no longer look like niche betting venues. They increasingly resemble something closer to retail trading.

This analysis uses on-chain data, primarily from Polymarket—the largest platform by users and transactions in a market dominated by a Polymarket–Kalshi duopoly—to test that shift directly.

Current Notional Volume Spread: Dune

$10 Trades Are Defining the Market

Across four dimensions, who participates, how they behave, how capital moves, and at what scale, the volume growth pattern tells a consistent story.

And the category mix reinforces the framing: crypto and politics (excluding sports) now lead weekly volume on Polymarket, with the economy and earnings categories growing alongside them. These are not traditional gambling categories. They are finance-adjacent verticals.

Advertisement

Notably, sports event contracts are already being offered as CFTC-regulated financial products by Kalshi and distributed through Robinhood’s Predictions Hub, placing them alongside stocks, options, and crypto within the same brokerage interface.

Prediction Markets' Growing Categories
Prediction Markets’ Growing Categories: Dune

The most revealing signal is not how much money flows through prediction markets. It is who is placing the trades.

On Polymarket, the median bet size is $10, according to BeInCrypto’s exclusive dashboard. The average sits at $89, but that figure is pulled upward by a thin tail of large participants.

The underlying distribution paints a clearer picture: roughly 20% of all wallets trade in the $0 to $10 range, another 27% fall between $10 and $50, and about 11% sit in the $50 to $100 bracket.

In total, over 57% of users trade for less than $100, and more than 80% trade for less than $500.

Advertisement
Polymarket User Distribution by Average Bet Size
Polymarket User Distribution by Average Bet Size: Dune

This is not a market shaped by whales. It is a market built on small, individual participants deploying modest amounts. The pattern mirrors what defined the rise of retail stock trading.

Robinhood, for comparison, reported a median account size of $240, with the average around $5,000, according to CEO Vlad Tenev in 2021. The structural similarity is hard to miss: prediction markets are attracting the same class of small participants that reshaped equities over the past five years.

Users are Acting Like Traders, Not Bettors

Participation alone does not distinguish a financial platform from a betting one. Frequency of interaction does.

A bettor places a wager and waits. A trader enters positions, adjusts exposure, exits, and re-enters. The transactions-per-active-user ratio captures this distinction directly.

On Polymarket, this ratio currently stands at approximately 25 transactions per daily active user, meaning the average active participant executes 25 trades per day. Earlier this year, the figure peaked near 37.

Advertisement
Polymarket Transactions Per Active Wallet
Polymarket Transactions Per Active Wallet: Dune

For context, through most of mid-2025, the ratio hovered between 3 and 5. The structural jump beginning in late 2025 represents a clear behavioral shift: users are no longer placing single predictions and walking away. They are actively managing positions across multiple markets.

This pattern has a direct parallel in crypto markets. A Kaiko research report on Binance found that the exchange processed 61.9 million trades against $20 billion in spot volume on a single snapshot day in December 2025, implying small average trade sizes and frequent execution across its 300 million registered accounts.

High-frequency, small-size trading is the behavioral signature of retail finance, whether the underlying asset is a stock, a token, or a prediction contract.

Capital Is Constantly in Motion

If users behave like traders, the capital dynamics should confirm it. They do. Polymarket currently holds approximately $445 million in total value locked, while open interest stands at roughly $477 million.

The near-parity between these two figures carries a specific implication: virtually all deposited capital is actively deployed in live positions rather than sitting idle. This is not passive liquidity. It is working capital.

Advertisement
Polymarket TVL
Polymarket TVL; DeFillama

The volume-to-open-interest ratio reinforces the point. With daily taker volume around $339 million and open interest at $477 million, the ratio is 0.71. Capital is not just deployed. It is rotating.

Positions are being opened, closed, and re-entered at a pace that suggests continuous portfolio management rather than static, event-dependent exposure. A low vol-OI ratio would have suggested more betting-like activity.

Volume And OI
Volume And OI: Dune

In a traditional betting market, capital tends to lock in and wait for resolution. Here, it circulates. That distinction is material: it signals a system in which participants treat capital as a tool for ongoing risk adjustment, not a one-time stake in a single outcome.

This Is No Longer Event-Driven Growth

The behavioral and capital patterns described above would be noteworthy even at modest volumes. But they are not operating at modest volumes.

Polymarket’s weekly notional volume has consistently exceeded $1 billion through Q1 2026, with recent weeks surpassing $2.5 billion. The 7-week rolling average has crossed $2 billion.

Monthly volumes have climbed from around $1 billion in mid-2025 to over $8 billion by March 2026. The growth trajectory is not driven by any single event cycle.

Advertisement
Rolling Average of notional volume
Rolling Average: Dune

Volume is diversifying across categories: sports, crypto, and politics. Each contributed substantially in the most recent weekly data, with economy, weather, and culture adding further breadth.

This diversification is what separates structural growth from event-driven spikes. A presidential election creates a temporary surge.

Sustained, multi-category volume growth across sports, crypto, macro, and culture points to a user base that engages with prediction markets regularly, not just occasionally, as a typical retail habit.

What the Prediction Markets’ Data Says

Each dimension reinforces the next in a single causal chain. The majority of participants are small, retail-sized users. Those users trade frequently, not once, but dozens of times per session.

The capital they deploy is almost entirely active, rotating through positions rather than sitting idle. And this behavior is occurring at billions of dollars in monthly volume, across a broadening set of categories.

Advertisement

When small users dominate participation, execute frequent trades, and keep capital constantly in play at scale, the system begins to resemble a retail financial market rather than a betting platform.

Prediction markets are no longer just mechanisms for forecasting outcomes. They are changing into retail trading systems for real-world events, platforms where participants express views, manage risk, and deploy capital with a frequency and discipline that mirrors stock markets.

The post Prediction Markets Now Behave Like Stock Trading Platforms appeared first on BeInCrypto.

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading

Crypto World

Traders assign 53% odds BTC under $66K by Apr 24

Published

on

Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin traded lower into Friday, sliding to around $65,530 after Thursday’s peak near $71,300 and erasing roughly $210 million in leveraged long exposure as the market faced an about $18.6 billion monthly options expiry. The Deribit options market priced in a bearish tilt, placing a 53% probability that BTC would stay below $66,000 by late April.

Traders also pushed the mood into risk-off mode as the delta skew for Bitcoin options advanced to about 15%, indicating puts were trading at a meaningful premium relative to calls. In parallel, the exit of a high-profile US policy voice and persistent questions about a US strategic approach to Bitcoin added to the cautious stance surrounding a sector still wrestling with regulatory and macro headwinds.

Key takeaways

  • Bearish options posture dominates near-term bets: The delta skew rose to 15%, signaling a notable premium for puts over calls and implying a cautious, protection-oriented trading environment.
  • BTC price action aligns with cautious expiry dynamics: BTC slid to about $65,530 on Friday, an 8% drop from Thursday’s $71,300, as the $18.6 billion monthly expiry weighed on market positioning and erased substantial bullish leverage.
  • Markets price a sub-$66k scenario by late April: The market assigned roughly a 53% implied probability that Bitcoin would trade below $66,000 by April 24, reflecting elevated uncertainty amid macro tensions and policy questions.
  • Put-heavy expiry signals risk-off sentiment into weekend: About $2 billion in put open interest existed at the $69,000+ level, with 97% of call options expiring worthless, underscoring a shift away from bullish bets during the expiry window.
  • Policy leadership shake-up fuels uncertainty: David Sacks has stepped down as crypto and AI czar, a development that compounds questions about the cadence of US policy on Bitcoin and related technology, including the prospect of a US Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitcoin options and price action amid a thickening policy fog

Friday’s price action arrived on the back of a broad options setup that favored hedging over risk-taking. BTC traded near $65,530, leaving behind an 8% retreat from Thursday’s highs of about $71,300. The monthly expiry, totaling roughly $18.6 billion, amplified the impact of positioning shifts: much of the bullish call premium appeared to fade as the session concluded, with open interest leaning toward protective puts.

In particular, a 66,000-strike put traded at 0.0566 BTC (roughly $3,730), highlighting hedging activity around the $66k level. The market’s read on April 24 pointed to a 53% chance BTC would remain under $66,000, reinforcing a cautious posture among traders heading into the weekend. Data from Deribit and related analytics show the tilt away from outright bullish exposure as traders seek downside protection in an environment clouded by macro and geopolitical developments.

The options landscape also reveals a clearer signal from the longer end of the curve: the delta skew — a measure of put vs. call demand — jumped to 15% on Friday. In balanced markets, the skew typically hovers between -6% and +6%. A +15% reading indicates a material willingness to pay up for downside protection, suggesting reduced conviction that the $66,000 threshold would hold through the coming days.

Advertisement

Looking at expiry dynamics, Friday’s session favored neutral-to-bearish strategies. About 97% of call options at the $68,610 expiry strike were void, while puts at $69,000 and higher eclipsed $2 billion in open interest. The combination of heavy put exposure and weak call participation underscores a mood shift away from outright bullish bets, with traders prioritizing risk management as headlines and policy signals remained unsettled.

Beyond the technicals, market chatter on social platforms reflected a tentative mood about potential geopolitical catalysts. WhalePanda, an active market observer on X, noted that risk markets could push higher if no major negative developments materialize before Monday, though a fresh geopolitical flare could quickly tilt sentiment back toward fear-driven selling.

For readers tracking the macro context, traders are watching a confluence of factors: a U.S. inflation backdrop, possible shifts in fiscal posture, and policy signals around crypto. Oil prices moved higher, with West Texas Intermediate approaching the $100 per barrel mark, while 5-year Treasury yields rose to about 4.07% from roughly 3.72% three weeks prior. The S&P 500 also traded near multi-month lows, underscoring a broader risk-off tone that has often weighed on speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Policy landscape, leadership changes, and the strategic reserve question

Contributing to the mood is a lack of clarity around U.S. policy direction for Bitcoin. In recent weeks, David Sacks, who served as the administration’s crypto and AI czar, stepped down from that role, though he remains an advisor to the President’s Council on Science & Technology. His departure follows earlier remarks that fueled investor expectations, including hints that the U.S. could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without tax increases. The shift adds another layer of uncertainty for market participants seeking a clear pathway for crypto policy in Washington.

Advertisement

The trajectory of any formal U.S. plan to establish a Bitcoin reserve or similar strategic holdings remains unclear. Reports and commentary around a potential “US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” have circulated in policy circles, but concrete details and timelines have yet to emerge. As policy ambiguity persists, investors are inclined to treat any bullish narratives with caution until clearer signals surface from lawmakers and regulators.

For broader context, readers may recall related discussions about crypto taxation and exemptions. Earlier reporting noted lingering gaps in a proposed crypto tax framework and exemptions for Bitcoin, underscoring how policy developments continue to shape market sentiment and risk appetite.

As the policy debate unfolds, investors should watch for concrete comments from policymakers on whether any strategic holdings or reserve-like program will materialize, and how such moves might interact with existing regulatory frameworks and market infrastructure.

What to watch next for traders and developers

Looking ahead, the key questions center on sentiment recovery versus continued caution. If geopolitical tensions ease and no fresh negative headlines emerge, the options market could recalibrate, potentially narrowing the delta skew and stabilizing the front-month expiry pace. Conversely, any new developments on U.S. crypto policy or a surprise shift in the global macro landscape could reassert a risk-off tone and keep downside hedges in demand.

Advertisement

Traders will also be assessing whether the market’s current pricing aligns with longer-term narratives, including Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge or as a high-beta risk asset within a diversified portfolio. The ongoing tension between macro headwinds and crypto-specific catalysts suggests volatility could persist as market participants await clearer policy signals and more durable liquidity conditions.

The immediate takeaway is clear: exterior forces—policy signals, geopolitical headlines, and macro surprises—will continue to dictate Bitcoin’s near-term path. As long as uncertainty remains elevated, risk management will likely stay at the forefront of trading decisions, with the options market serving as a barometer of traders’ willingness to protect against drawdowns rather than chase outright upside.

For ongoing coverage, readers should monitor updates on U.S. crypto policy, any announcements related to a potential Bitcoin reserve, and the evolving reaction of equities and macro markets to fresh headlines. If policy clarity arrives or geopolitical tensions shift, the market could recalibrate quickly, offering new opportunities for both traders and builders in the crypto space.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Published

on

Bitcoin Traders Bet On Sub-$66K BTC In April Due To Rising Fear

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish sentiment is rising as Bitcoin options professional traders lose confidence that the $66,000 level will hold for long.

  • The exit of David Sacks as the Crypto and AI czar and a lack of a clear US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve plan added to investors’ doubts.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell to $65,530 on Friday, an 8% decline from the $71,300 level seen on Thursday. This move wiped out over $210 million in leveraged bullish Bitcoin futures and left most call (buy) options worthless during the $18.6 billion monthly expiry. Traders now anticipate a 53% chance that Bitcoin will stay below $66,000 by April 24.

April 24 Bitcoin option prices at Deribit. Source: Deribit

On Friday, the April 24 Bitcoin $66,000 put (sell) options traded at 0.0566 BTC or roughly $3,730. With a 53% implied probability of Bitcoin trading below $66,000 by late April, the mood remains decidedly bearish following the increased uncertainty in the US and Israel-Iran war, pushing traders into a risk-averse mode.

US inflation threats and stalling crypto, Bitcoin legislation

Rising oil prices and a potential $200 billion in extra US military spending led investors to demand higher returns on government bonds and dragged the S&P 500 to its lowest levels since September 2025. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil surged to $100 on Friday, while 5-year Treasury yields reached 4.07%, up from 3.72% three weeks prior.

US 5-year Treasury yield (left) vs. S&P 500 (right). Source: TradingView

Inflationary fear and weaker corporate earnings perspectives alone cannot explain Bitcoin’s 20% underperformance against the S&P 500 in 2026. Other factors are likely at play, including investors’ discomfort over the lack of progress on the US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

David Sacks has stepped down from his role as the Trump administration’s crypto and AI czar. While Sacks remains an advisor on the President’s Council on Science & Technology, his departure follows earlier comments that inflated Bitcoin investors’ expectations. Sacks had previously hinted that the US could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without raising taxes.

Advertisement

Related: US lawmakers publish crypto tax proposal without Bitcoin tax exemption

Bitcoin 30-day options delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas

The Bitcoin options delta skew jumped to 15% on Friday, showing that put options are trading at a significant premium relative to call instruments. In balanced market conditions, this metric usually ranges between -6% and +6%. The current level indicates a lack of conviction among whales that the $66,000 level will hold. Fear has largely dominated the Bitcoin options market since mid-January.

Bitcoin options expiry favored neutral-to-bearish strategies

Friday’s monthly options expiry at $68,610 proved unfavorable for neutral-to-bullish strategies, as 97% of call options became void. Bears gained the upper hand as put options at $69,000 or higher surpassed $2 billion in open interest. Critically, part of Friday’s downward move reflects a growing unwillingness among traders to maintain Bitcoin exposure over the weekend.

Crypto markets cut risk on Friday due to uncertainty. Source: X/WhalePanda

X social platform user WhalePanda, suggested that the crash in risk markets anticipates President Trump making “another dumb escalating move” after US markets close. Consequently, the current fear seen in the options market could reverse if no major geopolitical events occur before Monday.

During bearish cycles, traders often rush for the exits at the mere sight of any event that could be deemed negative. Investors should not take Bitcoin’s implied odds at face value, as these metrics are heavily impacted by recent news and headlines. However, expectations could shift more favorably if Iran effectively releases a counter-offer to the US peace proposal.