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Traders assign 53% odds BTC under $66K by Apr 24

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Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin traded lower into Friday, sliding to around $65,530 after Thursday’s peak near $71,300 and erasing roughly $210 million in leveraged long exposure as the market faced an about $18.6 billion monthly options expiry. The Deribit options market priced in a bearish tilt, placing a 53% probability that BTC would stay below $66,000 by late April.

Traders also pushed the mood into risk-off mode as the delta skew for Bitcoin options advanced to about 15%, indicating puts were trading at a meaningful premium relative to calls. In parallel, the exit of a high-profile US policy voice and persistent questions about a US strategic approach to Bitcoin added to the cautious stance surrounding a sector still wrestling with regulatory and macro headwinds.

Key takeaways

  • Bearish options posture dominates near-term bets: The delta skew rose to 15%, signaling a notable premium for puts over calls and implying a cautious, protection-oriented trading environment.
  • BTC price action aligns with cautious expiry dynamics: BTC slid to about $65,530 on Friday, an 8% drop from Thursday’s $71,300, as the $18.6 billion monthly expiry weighed on market positioning and erased substantial bullish leverage.
  • Markets price a sub-$66k scenario by late April: The market assigned roughly a 53% implied probability that Bitcoin would trade below $66,000 by April 24, reflecting elevated uncertainty amid macro tensions and policy questions.
  • Put-heavy expiry signals risk-off sentiment into weekend: About $2 billion in put open interest existed at the $69,000+ level, with 97% of call options expiring worthless, underscoring a shift away from bullish bets during the expiry window.
  • Policy leadership shake-up fuels uncertainty: David Sacks has stepped down as crypto and AI czar, a development that compounds questions about the cadence of US policy on Bitcoin and related technology, including the prospect of a US Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitcoin options and price action amid a thickening policy fog

Friday’s price action arrived on the back of a broad options setup that favored hedging over risk-taking. BTC traded near $65,530, leaving behind an 8% retreat from Thursday’s highs of about $71,300. The monthly expiry, totaling roughly $18.6 billion, amplified the impact of positioning shifts: much of the bullish call premium appeared to fade as the session concluded, with open interest leaning toward protective puts.

In particular, a 66,000-strike put traded at 0.0566 BTC (roughly $3,730), highlighting hedging activity around the $66k level. The market’s read on April 24 pointed to a 53% chance BTC would remain under $66,000, reinforcing a cautious posture among traders heading into the weekend. Data from Deribit and related analytics show the tilt away from outright bullish exposure as traders seek downside protection in an environment clouded by macro and geopolitical developments.

The options landscape also reveals a clearer signal from the longer end of the curve: the delta skew — a measure of put vs. call demand — jumped to 15% on Friday. In balanced markets, the skew typically hovers between -6% and +6%. A +15% reading indicates a material willingness to pay up for downside protection, suggesting reduced conviction that the $66,000 threshold would hold through the coming days.

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Looking at expiry dynamics, Friday’s session favored neutral-to-bearish strategies. About 97% of call options at the $68,610 expiry strike were void, while puts at $69,000 and higher eclipsed $2 billion in open interest. The combination of heavy put exposure and weak call participation underscores a mood shift away from outright bullish bets, with traders prioritizing risk management as headlines and policy signals remained unsettled.

Beyond the technicals, market chatter on social platforms reflected a tentative mood about potential geopolitical catalysts. WhalePanda, an active market observer on X, noted that risk markets could push higher if no major negative developments materialize before Monday, though a fresh geopolitical flare could quickly tilt sentiment back toward fear-driven selling.

For readers tracking the macro context, traders are watching a confluence of factors: a U.S. inflation backdrop, possible shifts in fiscal posture, and policy signals around crypto. Oil prices moved higher, with West Texas Intermediate approaching the $100 per barrel mark, while 5-year Treasury yields rose to about 4.07% from roughly 3.72% three weeks prior. The S&P 500 also traded near multi-month lows, underscoring a broader risk-off tone that has often weighed on speculative assets like Bitcoin.

Policy landscape, leadership changes, and the strategic reserve question

Contributing to the mood is a lack of clarity around U.S. policy direction for Bitcoin. In recent weeks, David Sacks, who served as the administration’s crypto and AI czar, stepped down from that role, though he remains an advisor to the President’s Council on Science & Technology. His departure follows earlier remarks that fueled investor expectations, including hints that the U.S. could acquire more Bitcoin through budget-neutral methods without tax increases. The shift adds another layer of uncertainty for market participants seeking a clear pathway for crypto policy in Washington.

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The trajectory of any formal U.S. plan to establish a Bitcoin reserve or similar strategic holdings remains unclear. Reports and commentary around a potential “US Bitcoin Strategic Reserve” have circulated in policy circles, but concrete details and timelines have yet to emerge. As policy ambiguity persists, investors are inclined to treat any bullish narratives with caution until clearer signals surface from lawmakers and regulators.

For broader context, readers may recall related discussions about crypto taxation and exemptions. Earlier reporting noted lingering gaps in a proposed crypto tax framework and exemptions for Bitcoin, underscoring how policy developments continue to shape market sentiment and risk appetite.

As the policy debate unfolds, investors should watch for concrete comments from policymakers on whether any strategic holdings or reserve-like program will materialize, and how such moves might interact with existing regulatory frameworks and market infrastructure.

What to watch next for traders and developers

Looking ahead, the key questions center on sentiment recovery versus continued caution. If geopolitical tensions ease and no fresh negative headlines emerge, the options market could recalibrate, potentially narrowing the delta skew and stabilizing the front-month expiry pace. Conversely, any new developments on U.S. crypto policy or a surprise shift in the global macro landscape could reassert a risk-off tone and keep downside hedges in demand.

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Traders will also be assessing whether the market’s current pricing aligns with longer-term narratives, including Bitcoin’s role as a macro hedge or as a high-beta risk asset within a diversified portfolio. The ongoing tension between macro headwinds and crypto-specific catalysts suggests volatility could persist as market participants await clearer policy signals and more durable liquidity conditions.

The immediate takeaway is clear: exterior forces—policy signals, geopolitical headlines, and macro surprises—will continue to dictate Bitcoin’s near-term path. As long as uncertainty remains elevated, risk management will likely stay at the forefront of trading decisions, with the options market serving as a barometer of traders’ willingness to protect against drawdowns rather than chase outright upside.

For ongoing coverage, readers should monitor updates on U.S. crypto policy, any announcements related to a potential Bitcoin reserve, and the evolving reaction of equities and macro markets to fresh headlines. If policy clarity arrives or geopolitical tensions shift, the market could recalibrate quickly, offering new opportunities for both traders and builders in the crypto space.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Bitcoin slips from weekend highs as U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks strain

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Geopolitical tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz renewed a risk-off mood across cryptocurrency markets over the weekend, pressuring Bitcoin after a brief rally earlier in the week. On Friday, Bitcoin surged above $78,300 on Coinbase — its highest level since early February — but the rally faded as broader developments escalated. By weekend’s end, BTC had retreated to the $75,000–$76,000 zone, and late Sunday slid further to briefly dip below $74,000 in the wake of a U.S. military operation in the region.

The U.S. military announced that it opened fire on and later seized an Iranian cargo ship it said was attempting to breach a blockade of Iranian ports, a move that Tehran characterized as a violation of a two-week ceasefire between the two nations. The ceasefire, which had contributed to a calmer backdrop for energy markets and crypto trading alike, is due to expire this week, with investors watching how any renewal or breakdown could influence risk assets.

As tensions escalated, Tehran signaled retaliation and reportedly rejected a new round of peace talks slated for Monday in Islamabad, citing the U.S. blockade. The combined stance from Washington and Tehran underscored the fragility of a de-escalation path, complicating the outlook for both oil and crypto markets in the near term.

The broader market backdrop reflected the tension. U.S. stock futures opened Sunday night lower, with S&P 500 futures down about 0.8%, Nasdaq-100 futures off 0.6%, and Dow futures down roughly 0.9% (around 450 points). Oil markets reacted in kind, with crude futures rising more than 4.5% and trading above $95 a barrel as supply concerns and geopolitical risk re-entered the narrative.

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Crypto market sentiment also shifted. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index edged higher to 29 out of 100 on Monday, signaling a return to fear after a period of relative calm, though it remained in the cautious end of the spectrum rather than outright panic.

Bitcoin’s price trajectory over the weekend underscores how sensitive the crypto market remains to macro-driven risk factors in addition to its own supply-and-demand dynamics. The move back toward the mid-$70,000s after a weekend foray into the mid-$70k range highlighted the potential for renewed volatility should the conflict persist or escalate around Hormuz and related channels.

Cointelegraph has previously noted how macro tensions, including geopolitical flare-ups and oil price swings, have historically fed into bitcoin’s price action, offering a potential liquidity tilt during periods of global uncertainty. The current sequence — a Friday peak followed by a weekend retreat and a Sunday plunge tied to military actions — illustrates the ongoing intersection between energy markets, geopolitical risk, and crypto liquidity.

Looking ahead, the key question for traders is whether the ceasefire holds long enough for markets to re-price risk more calmly or if renewed escalation magnifies volatility. The end-date of the current two-week ceasefire looms large for both oil markets and digital assets, as any renewal terms or new conflict dynamics could reintroduce abrupt shifts in sentiment, liquidity, and hedge demand.

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Analysts will also be watching how the U.S. and Iranian sides approach diplomacy in the coming days. Tehran’s rejection of new talks and its vow of retaliation, alongside the U.S. military actions, suggests that any easing in risk appetite may depend heavily on clear signals of de-escalation rather than the mere absence of headlines.

In the near term, Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies may continue to trade within a risk-off framework so long as geopolitical headlines dominate. Traders will likely weigh potential upside toward prior resistance levels against the risk of renewed volatility if tensions intensify or the ceasefire breaks down again. As always, liquidity, macro cues, and the evolving diplomatic calculus will shape the path forward for BTC and the broader crypto market.

What to watch next: the timing and outcome of any renewed discussions around the ceasefire, ongoing responses from both Tehran and Washington, and the corresponding reactions in oil and traditional equity markets. The coming days could reveal whether this episode marks a temporary pause in risk appetite or a more sustained shift in how investors price geopolitical risk into digital assets.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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LayerZero blames Kelp’s setup for $290 million exploit, attributes it to North Korea’s Lazarus

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LayerZero blames Kelp's setup for $290 million exploit, attributes it to North Korea's Lazarus

LayerZero has placed responsibility for the $290 million Kelp DAO exploit on Kelp’s own security configuration, saying the liquid restaking protocol ran a single-verifier setup that LayerZero had previously warned against.

The attack used a novel vector targeting the infrastructure layer rather than any protocol code.

Attackers, whom LayerZero attributed with preliminary confidence to North Korea’s Lazarus Group and its TraderTraitor subunit, compromised two of the remote procedure call (RPC) nodes that LayerZero’s verifier relied on to confirm cross-chain transactions.

RPC nodes are the servers that let software read and write data on a blockchain, and LayerZero’s verifier used a mix of internal and external ones for redundancy.

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The attackers swapped the binary software running on two of those nodes with malicious versions designed to tell LayerZero’s verifier that a fraudulent transaction had occurred, while continuing to report accurate data to every other system querying those same nodes.

That selective lying was engineered to keep the attack invisible to LayerZero’s own monitoring infrastructure, which queries the same RPCs from different IP addresses.

Compromising two nodes was not enough. LayerZero’s verifier also queried uncompromised external RPC nodes, so the attackers ran a distributed denial-of-service attack on those to force failover to the poisoned ones.

Traffic logs LayerZero shared show the DDoS running between 10:20 a.m. and 11:40 a.m. Pacific Time on Saturday. Once the failover triggered, the compromised nodes told the verifier a valid cross-chain message had arrived, and Kelp’s bridge released 116,500 rsETH to the attackers. The malicious node software then self-destructed, wiping binaries and local logs.

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The attack only worked because Kelp ran a 1-of-1 verifier configuration, meaning LayerZero Labs was the sole entity verifying messages to and from the rsETH bridge.

LayerZero’s public integration checklist and direct communications to Kelp had recommended a multi-verifier setup with redundancy, where consensus across several independent verifiers would be required to confirm a message. Under that configuration, poisoning one verifier’s data feed would not have been enough to forge a valid message.

“KelpDAO chose to utilize a 1/1 DVN configuration,” LayerZero wrote, using the protocol’s term for decentralized verifier networks. “A properly hardened configuration would have required consensus across multiple independent DVNs, rendering this attack ineffective even in the event of any single DVN being compromised.”

LayerZero said it has confirmed zero contagion to any other application on the protocol. Every OFT-standard token and application running multi-verifier setups was unaffected.

The LayerZero Labs verifier is back online, and the company said it will no longer sign messages for any application running a 1-of-1 configuration, forcing a protocol-wide migration off single-verifier setups.

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The architectural distinction matters for how DeFi prices LayerZero risk going forward.

A protocol-level bug would have implied every OFT token on every chain was potentially at risk. However, a configuration failure by a single integrator, combined with a targeted infrastructure attack, implies the protocol worked as designed and that Kelp’s security choices, not LayerZero’s code, created the opening.

Kelp has not yet publicly responded to LayerZero’s framing or addressed why it operated a 1-of-1 verifier setup despite the explicit recommendations against it.

Lazarus Group has been linked to the Drift Protocol exploit on April 1 and now Kelp on April 18, meaning the same North Korean unit has drained more than $575 million from DeFi in 18 days through two structurally different attack vectors: social engineering governance signers at Drift and poisoning infrastructure RPCs at Kelp.

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The group is adapting its playbook faster than DeFi protocols are hardening their defenses.

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April 2026 Becomes Worst Month for Crypto Hacks Since February 2025

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$3 Million Reportedly Lost in CrossCurve Bridge Exploit

Crypto protocols lost over $606 million to hacks in just 18 days of April 2026. That makes it the single worst month for exploits since February 2025.

The surge comes from two attacks on KelpDAO and Drift Protocol. Together, they account for 95% of April’s losses and 75% of 2026’s total of $771.8 million.

April 2026 Crypto Hack Losses Dwarf Q1 Combined

According to data from DefiLlama, April’s $606.2 million total across 12 incidents, it has already eclipsed the first quarter’s $165.5 million haul. That makes the month roughly 3.7 times as large as January, February, and March combined.

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Month Number of Hacks Amount Lost
January 12 $100.1M
February 8 $24.2M
March 15 $41.3M
April (to April 18) 12 $606.2M
YTD Total 47 $771.8M

Every month since February 2025 has held under $240 million, per DefiLlama’s tracker. That earlier figure was skewed by the $1.4 billion Bybit breach, which drove February 2025’s total to $1.466 billion.

April 2026’s losses arrived without any headline exchange hack of that size. The pattern shows how quickly attackers pivoted to Decentralized Finance (DeFi) infrastructure.

BeInCrypto reported that KelpDAO lost over $290 million on April 18, now the year’s largest single hack. Drift Protocol sits just behind at $285 million.

The damage has stacked up in recent days. Incidents at Vercel, Hyperbridge, Grinex Exchange, and Rhea Finance have piled in 2026.

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“None of these accounts for the collateral damage seen across TVL, user trust, valuations, and the space’s morale. DeFi remains a niche market until risk can be properly priced; at this time, we’re far from it,” an anlyst wrote.

DeFi TVL Slides as Sentiment Cracks

DeFi total value locked (TVL) fell by more than 7% over the past 24 hours following the Kelp exploit. Aave alone dropped from $26.4 billion to near $17.9 billion.

“Every protocol is taking a hit now,” analyst Ted Pillows wrote.

Hack frequency is also climbing sharply. DeFi recorded 47 incidents in the first 4.5 months of 2026, compared with 28 over the same period in 2025. That works out to a roughly 68% year-over-year rise.

The reactions point to rising concern that DeFi’s risk pricing has not caught up with infrastructure-layer exploits. Dollar losses sit below 2025’s Bybit-skewed pace, yet incidents keep stacking. The next few weeks will show whether DeFi can tighten security before April’s trend defines the year.

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The post April 2026 Becomes Worst Month for Crypto Hacks Since February 2025 appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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The $13 billion DeFi wipeout in two days, and it started with KelpDAO attack

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The $13 billion DeFi wipeout in two days, and it started with KelpDAO attack

The decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem is experiencing a sharp capital outflow following the weekend exploit of the KelpDAO protocol.

Leading DeFi lending platform Aave has lost $8.45 billion in deposits over the past 48 hours, driving a broader $13.21 billion decline in total value locked (TVL) across DeFi. TVL refers to the combined dollar value of crypto assets deposited across DeFi protocols, such as Aave, and is widely used as to measure liquidity and overall market activity.

Total value locked across DeFi fell from $99.497 billion to $86.286 billion, while Aave’s TVL declined by $8.45 billion to $17.947 billion over the same period, according to DefiLlama. Protocol-level data shows double-digit percentage drops across platforms, including Euler, Sentora, and Aave, with losses concentrated in lending, restaking, and yield strategies tied to the affected collateral.

The move stems from a $292 million exploit of Kelp’s bridge that allowed attackers to use stolen rsETH, a liquid re-staking token widely used in DeFi, as collateral to borrow funds on lending platforms.

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Because these stolen tokens lacked legitimate collateral backing, borrowing against them created potential shortfalls for lenders. It’s similar to conning a traditional bank by depositing fake fiat and taking out loans against it, ultimately leaving the lender with bad debt.

Protocols responded by freezing affected markets, while panicked users withdrew funds, leading to a broad decline in total value locked.

Token prices have moved less sharply than deposits. The AAVE token is down about 2.5% over 24 hours, while UNI and LINK are down less than 1% over the same period, according to CoinDesk market data.

Peter Chung, head of research at Presto Research, said in a note the incident highlights risks in cross-chain infrastructure, particularly in verification systems used by bridges.

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Early analysis suggests the issue may have originated in the verification layer rather than in smart contracts themselves.

Chung added that the episode also shows how interconnected DeFi protocols can transmit shocks beyond the initial point of failure, with withdrawal activity and market freezes extending to platforms without direct exposure to the exploit.

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Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

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Bitcoin Drops to $74K as US-Iran Tensions Flare

Bitcoin erased its weekend gains as it fell below $74,000 on Sunday after the US military seized an Iranian cargo ship, putting pressure on a ceasefire between the two countries. 

Bitcoin (BTC) had soared above $78,300 late Friday on Coinbase, its highest price since early February, but dropped to between $75,000 and $76,000 over the weekend after Iran said it would close vital oil routes in the Strait of Hormuz.

The cryptocurrency then sank sharply late on Sunday to briefly trade below $74,000 after the US military said it opened fire on, and later seized, an Iranian cargo ship it claimed tried to run its blockade of Iranian ports, with Tehran accusing the US of violating an agreed ceasefire. 

The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, which had helped boost the markets and temper oil prices, is set to end on Wednesday.

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Bitcoin’s price in US dollars on Coinbase over the last five days has fallen over the weekend amid rising tensions between the US and Iran. Source: TradingView

Tehran has vowed to retaliate over the US military’s seizure of the ship and has rejected a new round of peace talks slated for Monday in Islamabad, Pakistan, due to the US blockade, Iranian state media reported.

Related: Bitcoin eyes $90K as whales absorb 20x daily BTC supply in 30 days

US stock futures sank Sunday night amid rising tensions, with S&P 500 futures dropping 0.8%, Nasdaq-100 futures falling 0.6% and Dow Jones futures declining 0.9%, or about 450 points.

Oil futures also soared amid the hostilities and Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz, with crude oil futures rising over 4.5% to over $95 a barrel.

The Crypto Fear & Greed index rose by two points to a score of 29 out of 100 on Monday, its highest score since late January, but which still indicated a sentiment of “fear.”

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