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Arthur Hayes Predicts Fed Money Printing From US-Iran Tensions Could Propel Bitcoin (BTC) Higher

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

Key Takeaways

  • Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder, believes extended US-Iran military engagement may compel the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates and expand monetary supply.
  • Historical precedent shows the Fed has injected liquidity during previous US military operations, according to Hayes.
  • Escalating oil prices resulting from regional tensions could drive 10-year Treasury yields upward, potentially prompting Fed intervention.
  • Bitcoin dropped from approximately $66,000 to $63,000 when tensions intensified but has since rebounded to the $73,000 level.
  • Market observers identify $70,685 as crucial Bitcoin support, with near-term price objectives ranging from $75,000 to $80,000.

Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX and currently serves as chief investment officer at Maelstrom, believes the escalating US-Iran tensions may initiate a sequence of events culminating in Federal Reserve monetary expansion — potentially benefiting Bitcoin prices.

In analysis published Monday on his blog, Hayes explained how prolonged US military operations in Middle Eastern regions have historically compelled the Federal Reserve to implement rate reductions and inject market liquidity. He cited the 1990 Gulf War, post-9/11 global counterterrorism efforts, and the 2009 Afghanistan troop surge as illustrative examples.

“The cure, as always, is cheaper and more plentiful money,” Hayes noted in his analysis.

In a March 6 post on X, Hayes cautioned that sustained increases in Brent crude prices stemming from US-Iran hostilities could cause 10-year Treasury yields to surge dramatically. Such market turbulence would elevate the MOVE Index — which tracks US bond market volatility — creating what Hayes considers a “prerequisite” for Federal Reserve monetary intervention.

Brent crude has climbed approximately 20% since conflict intensification began, fueled by concerns about Middle Eastern supply constraints. Nevertheless, oil prices declined over 1% Thursday to approximately $80 per barrel following Trump administration announcements of price stabilization measures, including a 30-day exemption permitting India to maintain Russian oil purchases.

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Implications for Bitcoin Markets

Hayes contends that Federal Reserve rate reductions or balance sheet growth would increase market liquidity, historically providing positive momentum for Bitcoin and comparable risk assets.

Bitcoin’s response to the military tensions has shown volatility. Prices declined from roughly $66,000 to $63,000 immediately following hostilities escalation. Subsequently, the cryptocurrency has recovered and recently reached a one-month peak of $73,000.

Hayes recommends awaiting definitive indications of Fed policy adjustments — either interest rate cuts or balance sheet expansion — before initiating Bitcoin or altcoin purchases. He has not advocated for immediate market entry.

Probability of a rate reduction at the Federal Reserve’s March 17–18 policy meeting remains minimal. CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates merely 2.7% odds of a cut at that gathering. Most market observers anticipate the Fed will maintain rates within the 3.50% to 3.75% range.

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Expert Technical Analysis

Cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez has pinpointed $70,685 as a critical Bitcoin support threshold. Maintaining that price level could facilitate a near-term advance toward $75,000–$80,000, according to market technicians.

Inflation pressures represent an additional consideration. Should inflation remain persistent, the Federal Reserve may possess limited flexibility for rate cuts, potentially constraining any immediate rally in risk assets like Bitcoin.

Hayes has offered comparable forecasts repeatedly in recent months. In January, he suggested potential US military operations in Venezuela as a probable catalyst for Fed monetary easing. Last month, he indicated an AI-driven financial crisis as the subsequent trigger.

In December, Hayes forecasted Bitcoin would reach $200,000 this month, referencing reserve management acquisitions announced by the Fed during that period.

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Currently, Bitcoin maintains trading activity within the $70,000–$73,000 corridor, with markets monitoring both Federal Reserve communications and Middle Eastern geopolitical developments.

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2 Reasons Why $35 Is a Critical Juncture for Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price

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Hyperliquid (HYPE) price is trading at $38.27, down 2.31% on the day, as a completed double top pattern and a dense liquidation cluster at $35.03 raise the odds of an accelerated leg lower.

The token has failed to hold gains above $42.67, and the price is now consolidating. Two independent signals now define the near-term trend line.

HYPE Long Traders Should Be Worried

The HYPE liquidation heatmap shows a dense band of leveraged long positions clustered around $35.03. Cumulative long liquidation leverage at that level totals $27.36 million. 

A move below $35.03 would trigger the forced closure of those positions in rapid succession. This would create mechanical selling pressure that could accelerate any decline well beyond the initial breakdown.

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HYPE Liquidation Heatmap.
HYPE Liquidation Heatmap. Source: Coinglass

The heatmap shows relatively thin liquidation stacking between $38 and $35, suggesting the price could slice through that range with limited friction. The absence of significant long-side leverage above $39 further limits the likelihood of a demand-driven reversal before the $35.03 test arrives.

Selling Pressure Set Dominates HYPE

The Klinger Oscillator (KVO) is currently reading 8.09K on the daily chart, sitting just above the zero line with a clear downward trajectory. The signal line (green) has already turned lower, and the KVO (blue) is converging toward a bearish crossover. 

The Klinger Oscillator measures the difference between two volume-weighted EMAs of price to gauge whether money is flowing into or out of an asset. When it rises above zero, buying pressure dominates; when it falls below zero, selling pressure takes control.

The indicator peaked near 25K in early March, coinciding with HYPE’s rally to $43.76. Since then, momentum has declined in three successive lower highs, a pattern of deteriorating buying pressure that mirrors the price action. 

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HYPE KVO.
HYPE KVO. Source: TradingView

A confirmed cross below zero on the KVO would shift volume-weighted momentum from bullish to bearish. Historically, on the HYPE daily chart, both prior KVO zero-line breaks preceded drawdowns. 

The 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level sits at $36.83, offering the first meaningful demand zone before price reaches the $35.03 liquidation cluster. Should the KVO break below zero while the price is below $36.83, the path to $32.33 — the 0.618 Fibonacci level — becomes the primary scenario.

HYPE Price Levels To Watch

The daily chart shows HYPE has completed a double top breakdown, now underway. Price is currently sitting at $38.27, hovering around the support at the same level. 

The pattern’s full downside projection is calculated from the breakdown point at the $35.03 neckline. This points HYPE to $21.64 on a confirmed breakdown, matching the 37.49% decline annotated on the chart.

HYPE Price Analysis.
HYPE Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Holding $35.03 is therefore non-negotiable for bulls. Only a daily close below it would confirm the double top and open the door to $32.33 first, then $28.69. 

For the bearish thesis to be invalidated, HYPE would need to reclaim $38.80 and then push through $42.67 with conviction. A break above $42.67 would negate the double top structure entirely, shifting the bias back toward the $47.15 resistance.

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The post 2 Reasons Why $35 Is a Critical Juncture for Hyperliquid (HYPE) Price appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Bitget’s Gracy Chen says $1t US stock wipeout is speeding up macro reset

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Bitget’s Gracy Chen says $1t US stock wipeout is speeding up macro reset

Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says a $1t single‑day US stock wipeout is accelerating a global macro risk reset, while lower leverage helps Bitcoin act more like a neutral portfolio allocation than a pure risk punt.

Summary

  • Over $1 trillion was wiped from US stocks in a single day as risk assets sold off.
  • Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says the slide has accelerated a global “reassessment of macro risks.”
  • Bitcoin’s smaller drawdown and lower leverage hint at growing status as a neutral allocation.

In the wake of a sharp US equity selloff that erased more than $1 trillion in market value in a single session, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen says the rout is forcing investors to reprice macro risk at a much faster clip while Bitcoin (BTC) is starting to behave more like a neutral, portfolio-level allocation than a pure risk-on punt. According to ChainCatcher, the CEO’s remarks are the latest on top of a broader drawdown that has already knocked trillions off US benchmarks since President Donald Trump’s second-term tariff agenda reignited inflation fears and hit tech-heavy names. As of Friday morning, Bitcoin was trading around $66,500, down roughly 4% on the day but still outpacing major stock indices on a relative basis.

Gracy Chen: $1t US stock selloff shows Bitcoin becoming neutral allocation

Chen argued that the current move is less about idiosyncratic crypto stress and more about global portfolios digesting a new regime of higher energy prices, stickier inflation, and geopolitical conflict spilling over into capital allocation decisions. “This round of adjustment reflects that global markets are reassessing macro risks at a faster pace,” she said, adding that as oil spikes again, “the impact of geopolitical changes is no longer limited to the energy market but is beginning to more directly affect global capital allocation.” The comment comes as strategists at Bloomberg and elsewhere flag how renewed tariff salvos and conflict risk have turned the post-2024 equity boom into what one Bloomberg analysis called a “$1 trillion wreckage,” even as Bitcoin’s institutional scaffolding has largely held.

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Despite warning that Bitcoin will “still maintain high volatility in the short term,” Chen highlighted that the asset’s behavior this week has been “relatively robust” compared with previous episodes when risk appetite collapsed. She pointed to a sharp reduction in derivatives leverage as a key reason: “The overall leverage in the crypto market has significantly decreased, thereby limiting the scale of forced liquidations that typically amplify downward pressure during market stress.” That fits with recent flows data showing Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen bouts of outflows but not the kind of capitulation that marked prior crashes, while Bitget’s own protection and risk systems have been tightened as volatility climbed.

For Chen, the resilience is sending a signal about how Bitcoin is being used. “In an increasingly fragmented macro environment, Bitcoin is starting to be viewed by some portfolios as a more neutral allocation choice,” she said. That echoes her earlier comments that recent drawdowns are “tightly linked to the macro cycle,” with investors rotating between crypto, equities, and gold as they navigate Trump’s tariff-led policy shock and rising odds of a US recession. According to a recent crypto.news story, US markets have wiped out $9.6 trillion in value since Trump’s second inauguration, even as Bitcoin has repeatedly bounced after single-day drops of 1%–5%, underlining its evolving role in a world where macro risk is now the dominant driver of asset prices.

In earlier coverage, crypto.news detailed how a previous wave of selling erased $1.1 trillion from digital assets in just 41 days as leverage cascades intensified the downside, a backdrop that makes today’s more orderly drawdown stand out. Another recent story examined how the same tariff and inflation shock that hit tech stocks has rippled through crypto, while a separate report tracked how Bitcoin’s price has stayed comparatively resilient even as US equity indices flirt with bear-market territory. For live market data on Bitcoin, readers can follow its price page on crypto.news, alongside dedicated pages for other major assets involved in these rotations, including Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin.

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California Governor Newsom Signs Prediction Market Insider Trading Order

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California, US Government, United States, Prediction Markets

California Governor Gavin Newsom signed an executive order on Friday, expanding rules to curb public servants and those close to them from benefiting from insider trading on prediction markets tied to political or economic events they can influence or are privy to.

The order prohibits “gubernatorial appointees,” public officials appointed to office by the governor of the state, from using “confidential or non-public information” gleaned from performing their duties to profit from related prediction markets.

Newsom’s executive order also extends the prohibition to include spouses, family members or former business partners of the appointed officials from using non-public information to profit. “Public service should not be a get-rich-quick scheme,” Newsom said. He added:

“At a time when Trump’s Washington is riddled with ethical failures and insider profiteering, California is drawing a bright line: If you serve the public as a political appointee, you serve the public — period. We’re not going to tolerate this kind of corruption in California.”

California, US Government, United States, Prediction Markets
Governor Newsom’s executive order on government insiders using non-public information to profit from prediction markets. Source: California Governor

An announcement from Newsom’s office listed several instances of political insiders using non-public information to profit from prediction markets, including six suspected political insiders who profited from US strikes on Iran.

Newsom’s office also cited another case of suspected insider trading, which occurred in January, after one Polymarket trader netted $410,000 betting that the US would arrest former Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro hours before his capture.

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Prediction markets have come under scrutiny from US lawmakers, who argue that political insiders are using the platforms to unfairly benefit from their positions and are potentially threatening national security by wagering on sensitive events like war and elections.

Related: Detroit set to enter Michigan‘s battle against Coinbase prediction markets

US lawmakers accelerate prediction market crackdown after insider allegations surface

Texas Congressman Greg Casar and Connecticut Senator Chris Murphy introduced the “Banning Event Trading on Sensitive Operations and ​Federal Functions (BETS OFF) Act” in March 2026 in response to the prediction market insider trading allegations.

The bill seeks to prohibit government insiders from using prediction platforms to profit from markets tied to war or death. 

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California, US Government, United States, Prediction Markets
Congressman Greg Casar announces the “Bets Off Act.” Source: Congressman Greg Casar

US Representative Adrian Smith and Representative Nikki Budzinski also introduced similar legislation in March, titled the “Preventing Real-time Exploitation and Deceptive Insider Congressional Trading (PREDICT) Act.”

The legislative proposal prohibits the US President, lawmakers and other high-ranking government officials from betting on prediction markets.

Magazine: Train AI agents to make better predictions… for token rewards