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Arthur Hayes Reacts as Drift Hack Hits Solana

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Arthur Hayes questioned whether native multisig wallets on Solana could have prevented the Drift Protocol hack.
  • Early investigations showed that attackers compromised administrative access rather than exploiting smart contract code.
  • Solana leaders stated that human weaknesses and operational security gaps enabled the breach.
  • Drift Protocol froze all functions and removed the compromised wallet from its multisig setup.
  • The DRIFT token fell to $0.038 before recovering to around $0.052 within 24 hours.

A $280 million exploit at Drift Protocol triggered debate across the crypto sector and pressured token prices. Arthur Hayes questioned wallet infrastructure, while Solana leaders blamed operational failures. Early findings indicate attackers compromised administrative access rather than smart contracts.

Arthur Hayes Raises Wallet Security Concerns After DRIFT Exploit

Arthur Hayes challenged crypto wallet design after hackers drained about $280 million from Drift Protocol. He asked on X, “If Solana had native multi sig addresses, would the Drift hack even have been possible?” His remarks focused attention on wallet controls and multisignature structures.

Meanwhile, executives across the Solana ecosystem addressed the breach and clarified its scope. They said the attack did not stem from faulty smart contracts. Instead, they pointed to compromised administrative permissions and weak operational security.

Jacob Creech, Solana’s vice president of technology, urged protocols to review their configurations. He wrote, “Every protocol should evaluate their setup and understand if it fits your security requirements.”

He added that stronger multisig thresholds and timelocks can restrict unauthorized actions.

Drift Protocol responded by freezing all protocol functions after detecting the exploit. The team removed the compromised wallet from its multisig setup. It also said it is working with exchanges, bridges, and law enforcement to trace funds.

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The DRIFT token fell sharply after news of the breach spread. It dropped to a record low of $0.038 before recovering part of the losses. At the time of reporting, DRIFT traded near $0.052, down 27% in 24 hours.

Retail sentiment on Stocktwits shifted during the volatility. Sentiment moved to “bullish” from “neutral” within a day. Chatter levels increased to “extremely high” from “high,” reflecting intense discussion.

Solana Leaders Say Human Weaknesses, Not Code, Enabled Attack

Solana leaders stated that the breach exposed weaknesses in permission management practices. Lily Liu, president of the Solana Foundation, said the incident “hits hard” for the ecosystem. She added that the smart contracts themselves remained intact.

Liu wrote on X, “The real targets now are humans: social engineering and opsec weaknesses more than code exploits.”

She emphasized the need to improve operational safeguards. She said the ecosystem must strengthen processes around access controls.

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Creech echoed that view and encouraged internal reviews across protocols. He highlighted the importance of aligning security setups with risk exposure. He said better controls can limit damage when credentials become compromised.

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The slow-motion ‘bank run’ in private credit

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The slow-motion 'bank run' in private credit

Investors tried to pull $13 billion out of private credit funds this quarter. They got less than half. For many crypto investors, if the collapse of private credit continues, half could end up being a good outcome.

Seven private credit giants capped investor withdrawals this quarter, including Morgan Stanley, BlackRock, Apollo, Blue Owl, Cliffwater, Blackstone, and Ares. Oaktree almost joined that group, although it technically fulfilled its 8.5% in withdrawal requests by having parent Brookfield buy 1.7% of shares at the eleventh hour.

Private credit funds package up illiquid loans inside vehicles that typically go up, except during rare times of crisis, such as during a major war or mass job losses.

Year-to-date stock prices of Apollo, Blackstone, Blue Owl Capital, and Ares. Source: TradingView

They also typically limit quarterly withdrawals to 5%, which is not a problem until many people want out, like they do now. 

When more than 5% want to withdraw, everyone gets a haircut on their withdrawal request. At Apollo and Ares, 11% wanted out. Those funds returned less than half.

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Crypto started joining the private credit bandwagon years ago, selling similar products in a different wrapper. Many stablecoin and altcoin treasury managers invest in private credit directly. 

‘A quasi run on the bank’

Michael Saylor delivered a keynote at the Blockworks Digital Asset Summit on March 26, the same week Apollo and Ares gated withdrawals. He pitched his company’s dividend-paying stocks as competitors to private credit. 

Saylor even called the multi-trillion dollar private credit crisis this year “a quasi-run on the bank.”

Worse, the same companies gating traditional private credit withdrawals are tokenizing private credit on blockchains. Apollo launched ACRED, a tokenized feeder into Apollo’s Diversified Credit Fund. A few months after that launch, Apollo’s partner Securitize had built sACRED, a derivative to goose yields even higher through risky decentralized finance (DeFi) protocols. 

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Holders can buy ACRED, deposit it into DeFi vaults, borrow stablecoins, buy more ACRED, and loop. Yields after looping, which are tantamount to risk, soared. 

Securitize initially advertised daily redemption rights for ACRED holders, which was quite curious given that most private credit funds limit quarterly redemptions to 5%. Then, after crypto publication Unchained asked about the mismatch with the fund’s quarterly 5% cap, Securitize quietly removed daily liquidity rights. 

Easier to buy, just as hard to sell

In other words, crypto tokenization changed the speed at which people could buy and add leverage. It did not change the speed at which they could sell.

Nor did crypto improve the most important characteristic of private credit: the deteriorating credit qualities of US borrowers who are suffering higher fuel prices, AI-induced job layoffs, wartime uncertainty, inflation, and rising costs of living.

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Crypto sold versions of the same illiquid debt that investors cannot exit quickly in any environment, let alone the current “quasi run on the bank” reality. 

By one analyst’s count, tokenized private credit surged from $25 million to $6 billion over the last year. 

Read more: Bitcoin mortgages debut with 60% haircut and no margin calls

Using blockchain for private credit instruments merely extends leverage and the rehypothecation chain that amplifies losses in a market downturn.

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Goldfinch, a DeFi protocol for undercollateralized real-world lending, has already suffered three defaults totaling $18 million. The most recent default wiped out more than 7% of its active loan book. 

A bad loan is still a bad loan, even if a smart contract wraps it in a token.

Billions queued up to leave private credit

Apollo Debt Solutions, valued at about $15 billion, received redemption requests for 11.2% of its shares. It enforced a 5% cap and returned $730 million of $1.5 billion requested. Ares Strategic Income Fund faced 11.6% in requests and did the same.

Blackstone recorded a record 7.9% in requests totaling nearly $4 billion. It raised its cap to 7% and injected $400 million of its own capital. BlackRock’s $26 billion fund received $1.2 billion in requests. Cliffwater’s $33 billion fund saw the worst: 14% demanded back.

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Across roughly a dozen funds, about $4.6 billion in investor capital remains trapped.

A 2015 tweet from Meltem Demirors hasn’t aged well.

Blue Owl Capital is the poster child of the current crisis in private credit. The company permanently halted redemptions from its retail-focused Blue Owl Capital Corp II in February. Its stock has declined 42% since the start of the year and 60% over the past twelve months.

Smelling blood, a shark investor launched a tender offer for 6% of Blue Owl Capital Corp II at about 65 cents on the dollar.

“All you need is for the snowball to start rolling down the hill, and it has begun,” the investor said at a recent investment conference.

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Crypto credit risks

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell addressed private credit on March 30 at Harvard University. He called it a correction, not a systemic event.

Nonetheless, Powell’s contentious reassurance arrived the same week that DZ Bank, Germany’s second-largest lender, warned that private credit could trigger a chain reaction with severe negative effects for the US economy. 

A record 63% of fund managers surveyed by Bank of America identified private equity and private credit as the most likely source of the next wave of systemic bankruptcies.

Default rates would tend to agree. The private credit default rate reached 5.8% through January 2026, the highest since Fitch’s index launched. Morgan Stanley forecasts it will climb to 8%, more than triple the historical average. UBS has warned that severe AI disruption to software borrowers could push defaults to 13%.

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Software exposure is the fault line. About 26% of direct lending loans went to software companies. Many built business models on costly subscriptions that AI is now undermining. Blackstone’s flagship BCRED fund posted its first monthly loss in three years in February after marking down loans.

Wall Street spent years pitching private credit as institutional-grade yield, and crypto wanted to democratize and decentralize it. What they actually democratized and decentralized was the purchase of opaque, illiquid loans by retail investors with 5% quarterly redemption limits whose fund managers choose the valuations of their own assets with broad discretion. 

As Protos has previously reported, this type of opacity in financial products is a feature, not a bug. Now those investors want their money back. The funds are returning less than half.

Powell says it is not systemic. About two thirds of private fund managers disagree.

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Polymarket Adds Equities, Commodities via Pyth Price Feeds

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Crypto Breaking News

Polymarket is expanding its predictive markets beyond purely cryptocurrency-related events, adding contracts tied to traditional assets. The new offerings rely on price data from the Pyth Network to determine outcomes for daily contracts, including up/down bets and closing price contracts for major equity indices, commodities such as gold and oil, and a range of US-listed stocks. Settlements are automated, with contracts resetting at the end of each trading session.

In its announcement, Polymarket notes that the expanded lineup includes more than a dozen US-listed stocks, featuring blue-chips such as Tesla, Nvidia and Apple, alongside commodity and index-based markets. By adopting Pyth as the resolution layer, Polymarket is moving away from manual or exchange-specific references toward a standardized data feed that aggregates prices from multiple market participants.

Key takeaways

  • Polymarket launches traditional-asset markets (stocks, indices, commodities) using Pyth Network for automatic, real-time settlement.
  • The new markets include daily up/down and closing price contracts for major US-listed stocks (e.g., Tesla, Nvidia, Apple), plus gold and oil, settled via Pyth feeds with daily resets.
  • Polymarket also introduced Pyth Terminal, a live data interface showing the reference values used to settle contracts and a continuously updating price-to-beat tracker for traders.
  • ICE’s investment signals strategic backing: ICE completed a $600 million cash investment in Polymarket last week and may acquire up to $40 million more in shares as part of a broader commitment to the platform.
  • Oracle networks are expanding beyond crypto, with government and traditional finance applications increasingly relying on on-chain price and economic data.

Polymarket’s bridge to traditional markets

The rollout marks a notable shift for Polymarket, which has historically focused on event-driven markets—ranging from elections and sports to financial and weather outcomes. By anchoring settlement to Pyth’s real-time price feeds, the platform can offer automated outcomes for assets that trade outside the typical crypto-native hours, broadening the potential audience of traders who want to speculate on or hedge exposure to conventional markets.

The inclusion of US-listed equities, including Tesla, Nvidia and Apple, alongside commodity and index contracts, positions Polymarket at the intersection of prediction markets and traditional financial markets. The Reuters-style mechanics of “daily up/down” and “closing price” contracts enable end-of-day settlement that mirrors conventional price discovery, while still leveraging the transparency and programmability of blockchain-backed markets. The Business Wire release emphasizes that Pyth’s data is the reference used to resolve these bets, replacing ad hoc or venue-specific price references.

Pyth Terminal and the changing face of on-chain data

Concurrently, Pyth Network introduced Pyth Terminal, a data interface designed to give users a transparent view of live price feeds and the reference values underpinning Polymarket settlements. The terminal provides a continuously updating price-to-beat line, allowing traders to monitor how shifts in real-time data could affect contract outcomes. This level of visibility is meant to enhance trust and operational clarity for users participating in cross-asset markets on the platform.

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Pyth’s broader push into traditional finance data aligns with a growing trend among oracle networks to serve not just crypto protocols but also financial infrastructure and prediction markets. The same trend is evident in other collaborations—Chainlink, RedStone and Kalshi integrations, and shifts toward 24/5 pricing data for tokenized assets—reflecting a broader push to tether decentralized markets to official or widely accepted data feeds.

Oracles, finance, and the regulatory backdrop

The expansion of oracle networks into real-world data has taken on additional significance as governments and financial firms increasingly rely on on-chain information. Notably, Chainlink and Pyth have been cited by US government agencies as sources for publishing on-chain economic data, including GDP and inflation metrics. The market response to these developments has been tangible: the PYTH token surged more than 70% on the day of the announcement, lifting its market capitalization above $1 billion.

These developments sit within a broader ecosystem where oracles are being integrated into both traditional finance and regulatory-compliant data pipelines. For example, Kalshi’s integration via RedStone across multiple blockchains demonstrates how regulated, exchange-traded event contracts can leverage cross-chain data feeds. Meanwhile, data providers continue to compete for share in a market that DeFiLlama currently indicates remains highly concentrated, with Chainlink accounting for roughly two-thirds of total value secured, and RedStone and Pyth each representing a smaller slice.

Strategic backing from ICE and implications for users

Intercontinental Exchange, Polymarket’s backer, disclosed last week a $600 million cash investment in Polymarket and an option to acquire up to $40 million more in shares as part of a broader multibillion-dollar commitment to the platform. ICE’s involvement underscores a deepening convergence between traditional exchange operators and crypto-based prediction markets. For Polymarket, the arrangement could unlock new liquidity channels and potential product expansions, while ICE gains exposure to a novel form of event-based market activity that sits at the convergence of data, finance and user-generated insights.

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From an investor and trader perspective, the move expands the set of tools available to hedge or speculate on real-world events. The use of a single, standardized data source like Pyth to settle a wide array of assets could simplify risk management for participants and may encourage more institutional participation that relies on consistent, auditable price feeds. For developers and platform builders, the integration demonstrates a viable pathway for connecting traditional assets to decentralized marketplaces without sacrificing transparency or speed of settlement.

As the ecosystem evolves, readers should watch how these traditional-asset markets perform in terms of liquidity, user adoption and regulatory compliance. The synergy between Polymarket’s user-driven contracts and ICE’s financial infrastructure could shape how predictive platforms scale beyond niche audiences, potentially influencing how everyday investors interact with real-world assets on-chain.

Overall, the fusion of Polymarket’s prediction market model with Pyth’s enterprise-grade price data signals a meaningful step toward broader applicability of oracle-powered settlement. The coming months will reveal how well these traditional-asset markets attract liquidity, how robust the data feeds prove under volatile conditions, and what regulatory and market structure developments might accompany this cross-asset expansion.

What remains unclear is how this model will fare across different asset classes during periods of stress, and whether further collaborations between traditional exchanges and on-chain data providers will accelerate the adoption of tokenized or blockchain-anchored versions of equities and commodities. Traders and builders alike should keep an eye on the next wave of product updates, market depth, and any regulatory clarifications that could affect the trajectory of cross-asset prediction markets.

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Stablecoins Dominate Crypto Trading as Retail Activity Drops: CEX.io

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Stablecoins Dominate Crypto Trading as Retail Activity Drops: CEX.io

Stablecoins were a rare bright spot in an otherwise subdued crypto market in the first quarter, with supply growth and transaction activity pointing to sustained demand even as broader market conditions weakened.

Total stablecoin supply increased by roughly $8 billion to a record $315 billion in Q1, according to data from CEX.IO. Although this marked the slowest pace of expansion since Q4 of 2023, it still represented growth during a period when the wider crypto market contracted.

The data suggests investors rotated into stablecoins as a defensive strategy, boosting their share of overall market activity. Stablecoins accounted for 75% of total crypto trading volume during the quarter — the highest level on record.

Stablecoins’ share of total digital asset trading volume exceeded its 2022 peak. Source: CEX.io

At the same time, total stablecoin transaction volume topped $28 trillion, underscoring their growing role as the primary liquidity layer of the digital asset market. The figure extends a multi-year surge in activity, with stablecoin volumes in recent years exceeding those of major payment networks like Visa and Mastercard combined.

However, data on underlying activity painted a more nuanced picture.

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Retail-sized transfers — typically associated with individual users — declined by 16% in the first quarter, the steepest drop on record. In contrast, automated activity surged, with bots accounting for approximately 76% of all stablecoin transaction volume.

The shift toward bot-driven flows suggests that a growing share of stablecoin usage is tied to algorithmic trading, arbitrage and liquidity provisioning, rather than retail demand. While elevated automation can reflect more sophisticated or institutional participation, it may also signal weaker organic demand during bearish market conditions. 

Related: Circle shares surge as Bernstein sees upside from stablecoin adoption

Divergence between major stablecoin issuers

One of the CEX.io report’s key takeaways was a widening divergence between major stablecoin issuers. The supply of Circle’s USDC (USDC) grew by roughly $2 billion in the first quarter, while Tether’s USDt (USDT) declined by about $3 billion, marking the first notable split between the two since Q2 of 2022 amid the bear market.

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The trend aligns with earlier Cointelegraph reporting, which highlighted a surge in USDC transfer activity in February, pointing to increased usage across trading and onchain transactions.

USDC is now more widely used for “financial operations,” which include trading and onchain transactions. Source: CEX.io

Beyond USDC, much of the growth in stablecoin issuance was driven by yield-bearing products — a segment that has drawn increasing scrutiny in the US. Ongoing discussions around a crypto market structure bill in Congress have placed yield at the center of debate, with traditional banks pushing back against stablecoins that offer interest-like returns.

The market for yield-bearing stablecoins is currently valued at around $3.7 billion, with daily trading volumes exceeding $100 million, according to data from CoinGecko.

Related: Crypto Biz: Stablecoin jitters meet institutional momentum