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As stocks, bonds fall, a trade that boomed in 2022 may be winner again

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ETF Edge on the mechanics of managed futures
ETF Edge on the mechanics of managed futures

Managed future strategies are gaining renewed attention as investors look for new sources of returns from the market at a time when both stocks and bonds are under pressure as a result of the U.S.-Iran war and the risk of 1970s-style stagflation.

These strategies, which are typically run by commodity trading advisors, use systematic models to trade future contracts across different asset classes. Rather than focus on short-term market moves in traditional asset classes, they aim to capture broader trends that unfold over months. The ability to adapt to changing market conditions, and their performance back in 2022, has made managed futures funds increasingly relevant in 2026.

In 2022, when the S&P 500 Index fell around 18% and the Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index was down about 13%, managed future strategies were up 20%.

That’s meaningful outperformance in an environment when stocks and bonds are under pressure,” Nate Geraci, NovaDius president, said on CNBC’s “ETF Edge” earlier this week.

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Andrew Beer, managing member at DBi, which manages the largest managed futures ETF, the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF (DBMF), said on “ETF Edge” that the uncertainty around inflation and interest rates, and the volatile geopolitical backdrop, are a good match for the managed futures approach, which can take long or short positions and have the flexibility to respond to different trends across the markets.

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Performance of the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF over the past five years.

Managed futures ETFs remain a relatively small category, collectively holding around $6.5 billion in assets, according to ETFAction.com. Within that space, the iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF has attracted about $1 billion in flows this year.

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The use of the managed futures approach with ETFs allows more investors to access a strategy that been associated with the world of hedge funds historically, but in a more liquid and transparent structure.

“We’re leveraging the work of largest hedge funds, and trying to be more efficient, pick up what they are doing,” Beer said. “We thrive with changes over 3, 6, 9, 12 months, not Monday to Thursday,” he said.

“Certainly, the [ETF] industry is going to be launching additional managed futures products along with other hedge funds strategies,” Geraci said during the podcast portion of “ETF Edge.”

Geraci said one clear signal that this approach is likely to see more interest from retail investors is three of the biggest asset managers getting into the space with their own branded managed futures ETFs: BlackRock, Invesco and Fidelity Investments.

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“They all entered the market in the past year and that is a sign of real investor demand going forward,” Geraci said. “The interest is there, especially given the backdrop of this market environment,” he added.

Still, managed future ETFs remain more complex than regular stock and bond investments, and investors need to understand that while their performance can beat stocks and bonds during periods of market stress and volatility, they can also lag.

“I do think these are clearly more complex than other types of ETFs on the market,” Geraci said. “Investors and advisors need to have a firm understanding of how these work,” he said. Maybe most important, he added, “Investors have to be able to stick with managed futures through inevitable periods of underperformance.”

“They can work really well when you need them, but you have to be able to let them work over full market cycles,” Geraci said.

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Beer said investors can think of an allocation to this type of strategy being in the range of 3% to 5% of an overall market portfolio diversification approach, “just sitting there alongside hard assets or infrastructure.”

“I think we all have the same goal: we want our investors to be able to grow their assets, but sleep at night,” he said.

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Bank of Hawai’i (BOH) Q1 2026: Net Income Drops to $57.4M as Net Interest Margin Expands

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

Executive Summary

  • BOH net income decreases to $57.4M while net interest margin gains strength
  • BOH shares advance as spread improvement offsets quarterly profit reduction
  • BOH demonstrates consistent loan and deposit trends alongside enhanced margin performance
  • BOH quarterly profit declines but fundamental balance sheet indicators remain robust
  • BOH registers reduced earnings while preserving superior credit metrics and capital adequacy

Bank of Hawai’i Corporation unveiled a contrasting picture in its first quarter 2026 financial performance, with net income retreating while fundamental banking indicators displayed resilience. Shares climbed to $81.52, gaining 1.79%, as investors responded positively to intraday price action and consistent upward trajectory. The quarterly report emphasized net interest margin expansion, deposit stability, and disciplined credit management even as bottom-line figures softened.

 

Profitability Softens as Spread Performance Strengthens

Bank of Hawai’i Corporation disclosed diluted earnings per share of $1.30 during the opening quarter of 2026. The institution generated net income totaling $57.4 million, representing a sequential quarterly reduction of 5.7%. Return on average common equity contracted to 13.90% from the preceding quarter’s 15.03%.

Net interest income expanded to $151.0 million, posting a 3.9% sequential increase. This advancement stemmed from reduced funding costs following monetary policy adjustments. The net interest margin strengthened to 2.74%, climbing 13 basis points and demonstrating enhanced profitability on the core balance sheet.

Average yields on earning assets experienced modest compression to 4.03%, while loan portfolio yields retreated to 4.75%. These declines originated from repricing dynamics on variable-rate instruments responding to the evolving rate environment. Nonetheless, reinvestment activities in fixed-rate instruments provided offsetting yield support.

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Asset Portfolio Consistency and Operating Cost Dynamics

Total assets registered $23.9 billion as of quarter-end March 2026, reflecting a modest 1.1% sequential contraction. The reduction primarily originated from diminished cash position holdings. Securities classified as available-for-sale alongside total loan exposures posted incremental growth throughout the reporting period.

Aggregate loans and leases climbed to $14.2 billion, bolstered by expansion in commercial real estate portfolios. Business lending advanced 2.0%, while retail loan segments experienced slight attrition attributable to scheduled principal payments. Total deposit liabilities contracted 1.1% to $21.0 billion, although non-interest-bearing deposits held steady near the 27% threshold.

Noninterest income retreated to $41.3 million reflecting subdued origination volumes and fee generation. Concurrently, noninterest expenses elevated to $116.1 million, propelled by compensation-related outlays and infrastructure investments. Adjusted calculations revealed moderate expense trajectory growth, underscoring disciplined cost oversight despite typical quarterly patterns.

Superior Asset Quality Metrics and Capitalization Framework

Credit quality indicators maintained exceptional performance as non-performing assets contracted to $12.1 million. This figure constituted merely 0.09% of aggregate loans and leases outstanding. Credit loss provisioning similarly declined to $1.8 million, signaling contained portfolio stress.

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Net charge-off activity totaled $1.1 million, demonstrating enhanced collection outcomes relative to the prior reporting period. The allowance for credit losses measured $147.0 million, sustaining a steady coverage ratio of 1.04%. These measurements validated ongoing prudent underwriting and portfolio monitoring practices.

Capital adequacy ratios persisted at elevated levels surpassing regulatory thresholds. The Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 14.40%, while the leverage ratio strengthened to 8.62%. The company executed $15.1 million in share repurchases and announced a $0.70 per share quarterly dividend, underscoring its commitment to shareholder capital distribution.

 

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Bitcoin Bulls Fight on as BTC Rebounds Despite US-Iran Tensions

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Bitcoin Bulls Fight on as BTC Rebounds Despite US-Iran Tensions

Bitcoin (BTC) erased losses after Monday’s Wall Street open as markets largely shrugged off the return of the US-Iran war.

Key points:

  • Bitcoin joins stocks in a muted reaction to the latest US-Iran deterioration and closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

  • BTC price manages to top 2.5% daily upside despite the lack of resolution.

  • Analysis warns that Bitcoin market strength is begin driven by Strategy and speculators.

Markets avoid volatility as BTC price stays green

Data from TradingView showed 2.5% daily gains for BTC/USD, which had closed the week below $74,000.

BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

US stocks saw modest downside as the week began, but the losses remained modest, while oil began retracing an initial move toward $90.

CFDs on WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The repositioning came a day after US President Donald Trump announced a fresh round of negotiations over Iran in Pakistan.

“My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations,” he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Sunday.

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Trump appeared to dismiss the significance of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz, calling its announcement “strange.”

Source: Truth Social

Responding, crypto trading company QCP Capital suggested that markets had already readjusted expectations of the war’s outcome and timeline for it.

“Despite the pullback in spot alongside renewed tensions, volatility has stayed notably subdued, hovering near year-to-date lows,” it wrote in its latest “Market Color” update. 

“This disconnect between realised risk and implied pricing suggests investors are recalibrating expectations toward a more episodic pattern of escalation: on-and-off disruptions around the Strait, paired with cycles of rhetoric and de-escalation. In effect, markets are beginning to price duration rather than intensity, pointing to a conflict that may be more protracted than initially assumed, but still contained within current bounds.”

S&P 500 one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

QCP added that even with the US-Iran ceasefire due to officially expire within days, that event was unlikely to be definitive.

“The base case, for now, remains one of range-bound volatility, rather than a decisive breakout across major asset classes,” it concluded.

Strategy, speculators under the microscope

Analyzing short-term BTC price moves, J. A. Maartunn, a contributor to onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant, had some bad news for bulls.

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Related: BTC price due new highs: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Bitcoin’s recent local highs, he suggested, were simply a result of buying pressure from Strategy and speculative traders, with sellers stepping in to take profit, halting the rally.

“Where does that leave price? Not far,” he summarized in an X thread.

BTC/USD chart with STH cost-basis data. Source: J. A. Maartunn/X

Maartunn said that BTC/USD remained stuck below “key resistance,” including the cost basis of short-term holders (STHs) near $83,000.

“Long-Term Holders keep accumulating, and Strategy isn’t done yet,” he acknowledged.

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“The key question: is it enough to push Bitcoin higher? For now, this still looks like a bear market rally… But a strong breakout could quickly shift the trend.”

BTC/USDT three-day chart. Source: J. A. Maartunn/X