Connect with us

Crypto World

Bernstein Gives Bold Bitcoin Bear Market Prediction

Published

on

Bitcoin and Gold Performances

Welcome to the US Crypto News Morning Briefing—your essential rundown of the most important developments in crypto for the day ahead.

Grab a coffee and take a step back from the daily price charts. Beneath the noise, some analysts believe Bitcoin’s latest downturn may be telling a very different story—one less about collapse and more about how the market itself is changing.

Crypto News of the Day: Bernstein Maintains $150,000 BTC Prediction

Bitcoin’s latest correction may feel familiar to crypto analysts, but experts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein argue that this cycle is fundamentally different from past downturns.

Sponsored

Advertisement

Sponsored

In a recent note to clients, the firm described the current environment as the “weakest bitcoin bear case in its history.” In their opinion, the decline reflects a crisis of confidence rather than structural damage to the ecosystem.

The analysts, led by Gautam Chhugani, reiterated a $150,000 Bitcoin price target by the end of 2026, citing:

A Bear Market Without a Crisis

Historically, Bitcoin bear markets have been triggered by systemic failures, hidden leverage, or major bankruptcies. Episodes such as the collapses of large crypto firms in previous cycles exposed structural weaknesses and triggered cascading liquidations.

Advertisement

Bernstein argues that none of those catalysts are present today. The analysts noted that there have been no major exchange failures, widespread balance sheet stress, or systemic breakdowns across the crypto industry, even as sentiment has deteriorated.

“What we are experiencing is the weakest Bitcoin bear case in its history,” the analysts wrote, adding that the recent sell-off reflects waning confidence rather than problems with Bitcoin’s underlying structure.

They also pointed to strong institutional alignment supporting the market, including spot Bitcoin ETF adoption, growing corporate treasury participation, and continued involvement from major asset managers.

According to the firm, these factors mark a clear departure from earlier cycles dominated by retail speculation and fragile infrastructure.

Sponsored

Advertisement

Sponsored

In the analysts’ view, the current market narrative is more shaped by sentiment than by fundamentals.

“Nothing blew up, no skeletons will unravel,” they wrote, arguing that concerns ranging from AI competition to quantum computing risks have contributed to a perception-driven downturn rather than a fundamental shift in Bitcoin’s value proposition.

Macro Pressures Drive Relative Weakness

Bernstein also addressed concerns about Bitcoin’s recent underperformance relative to gold during periods of macroeconomic stress.

The analysts said this divergence reflects Bitcoin’s continued behavior as a liquidity-sensitive risk asset rather than a mature safe haven.

Advertisement

High interest rates and tighter financial conditions have concentrated capital flows into defensive assets such as gold and into high-growth sectors like AI.

In contrast, Bitcoin remains more sensitive to shifts in global liquidity, meaning its recovery could be closely tied to changes in monetary policy and financial conditions.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Advertisement

The firm expects Bitcoin’s ETF infrastructure and corporate capital-raising channels to play a significant role in absorbing new capital once liquidity conditions ease.

Structural Changes Reduce Downside Risks

Bernstein also dismissed concerns about leveraged corporate Bitcoin holdings and miner capitulation. The analysts noted that major corporate holders have structured liabilities to withstand prolonged downturns.

In one cited example, a large corporate holder, Strategy, would face balance-sheet restructuring only if Bitcoin fell to around $8,000 and remained there for several years.

Advertisement

Meanwhile, miners have increasingly diversified their revenue streams, including reallocating power capacity toward AI data center demand. This trend, according to the firm, has reduced pressure on mining economics and lowered the risk of forced selling during price declines.

The analysts also acknowledged the long-term risks posed by quantum computing. However, they argue that such threats are not unique to Bitcoin and would affect all critical digital and financial systems. This, the analysts say, is expected to transition to quantum-resistant standards over time.

Sponsored

Sponsored

Advertisement

Chart of the Day

Bitcoin and Gold Performances
Bitcoin and Gold Performances. Source: TradingView

Byte-Sized Alpha

Here’s a summary of more US crypto news to follow today:

Source link

Continue Reading
Click to comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Crypto World

Republicans Could Hold Up Housing Bill Over CBDC Ban

Published

on

Republicans Could Hold Up Housing Bill Over CBDC Ban

Republicans in the US Congress want to ban any possibility of a central bank digital currency (CBDC). To do so, they’re threatening progress on a bipartisan housing bill.

A group of Republican members of the US House of Representatives wrote a letter dated March 6, expressing the “dire need to prohibit a Central Bank Digital Currency from ever happening in the United States.”

The letter cited familiar arguments claiming a CBDC would threaten financial privacy and grant the US Federal Reserve unprecedented financial surveillance powers.

Critics question why Republicans are so eager to ban a CBDC, particularly as other global economic centers like the European Union and China develop their own digital forms of money. Still, the Republicans are ready to pull support from a bipartisan housing bill to get their way.

Advertisement

Republicans hang CBDC ban on 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act

Twenty-eight Republican representatives signed a letter to House Speaker Mike Johnson. In it, they noted that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, a bill making its way through the Senate Banking Committee, contained a provision that would ban CBDCs.

But the lawmakers said it wasn’t strong enough. The ban would sunset in 2030, they noted, adding that the new language does not prohibit the Fed from studying a CBDC, which a bill introduced last year by Minnesota Rep. Tom Emmer sought to block.

The representatives demanded that both provisions be removed in the Senate before the bill reaches the House, claiming that a “prohibition on a Central Bank Digital Currency must be permanent.” If not, they threatened the success of the housing bill:

Otherwise, we will do everything to ensure that the 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act is dead-on arrival.”

Republican Representative Anna Paulina Luna said, “This will probably get nasty so I am telling everyone now. We would appreciate your air support on this.”

Advertisement

This move puts a still-niche and relatively unknown monetary question onto a bill that would at least nominally address concerns over housing affordability in the US.

According to a June 2025 survey from fintech firm Aevi, 61% of Americans haven’t even heard of a CBDC. The number is even higher among older respondents, with over 70% of 55- to 64-year-olds having never heard of one.

Meanwhile, housing costs in the US are getting higher. Data from the Fed and the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index collated by LongtermTrends shows that a typical single-family home currently costs 7.14 times the median annual household income.

This is the highest home price-to-median household income ratio on record going back to the late 1940s, higher than at the height of the 2006 housing bubble.

Source: LongtermTrends

Part of this is due to a supply squeeze. Homebuilding crashed after the 2008 financial crisis. This has continued to decline during the second Trump administration.

Related: US Bitcoin reserve still has no plan to stack sats

Advertisement

The new, bipartisan 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act contains several proposals to make building new housing easier and therefore cheaper. This includes expedited environmental reviews and increased Federal Housing Administration family loan limits.

“The package includes the vast majority of the Senate’s unanimously supported ROAD to Housing Act, incorporates bipartisan housing ideas from the House, and takes a good first step to rein in corporate landlords that are squeezing families out of homeownership,” Senator Elizabeth Warren said in a statement.

The presidential administration has already signaled its support of the bill, including a ban on CBDCs.

Holding up a housing affordability bill over a CBDC, something voters know very little about, may not play well, especially as President Donald Trump and Congress slip in the polls and the economy remains a central concern.

Advertisement

Related: Crypto turnaround at Fed as Kraken scores account and Trump nominee goes to Senate

Does the US need a CBDC to ensure the dollar stays on top?

Republicans claim to be concerned about the privacy implications of a CBDC, and they aren’t alone. Regarding the digital euro, the European Central Bank’s planned CBDC, Luxembourg-based economist Elisabeth Krecké said that it’s unclear how the tradeoff between privacy and functionality could be managed.

“The digital euro drafters simply assert that Europe’s legal framework offers the ‘strongest privacy protections in the world,’” she said. “The real question is: What happens to the data in the end? Who will have access to it and, ultimately, who will control it?”

Democrats are far less skeptical of a CBDC than their Republican colleagues. Particularly as, according to Krecké, over 90% of the world’s central banks are investigating the technology.

Advertisement

In a criticism of Emmer’s early efforts to ban a CBDC, Congresswoman Maxine Waters said in a statement, ”When Republicans raise concerns about CBDCs they are talking about retail CBDCs, but because they are so averse to knowledge and studying things, they have no idea that their bill blocks research into other forms of digitizing the dollar that could truly cut costs for people.”

She added that with a functional and operating digital currency, China could provide an attractive alternative to the dollar as the global reserve currency.

Congress is still hammering out the details of the CLARITY Act, the long-awaited crypto framework bill, and now the future of a CBDC is being balanced with more affordable housing ahead of a midterm election.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen

Advertisement