Crypto World
Bitcoin (BTC) snoozes into Good Friday as oil and macro stir: Crypto Daybook Americas
By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise)
Bitcoin is stuck in a tight range near $66,600 ahead of the Good Friday holiday, as geopolitical tensions and shifting macro expectations keep prices contained.
While the cryptocurrency saw a slight rise in the last 24 hour period it failed to break above $67,000. It’s struggling as U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a harsher stance on Iran, now threatening the country’s infrastructure.
Brent crude hit $120 per barrel on spot markets, levels not seen since 2008, over the ongoing crisis and its effects on the Strait of Hormuz, a key artery for global oil shipping that has effectively been shut down.
That surge in energy prices pushed up inflation expectations and undercut the case for rate cuts, a key support for bitcoin’s recent rally. Inflation in Europe has already risen to 2.5%, driven by energy costs.
The pressure has revealed a divide in market structure. Institutional inflows into bitcoin ETFs remain consistent, with $22 million in net inflows this week. But data from CryptoQuant show total apparent demand has flipped negative, with large holders distributing more than they accumulate.
Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have shed nearly 188,000 BTC since last year’s peak, the data shows. Nearly half of all bitcoin in circulation is, at current prices, trading at a loss.
Heading into the long weekend, liquidity is set to remain thin. That leaves bitcoin exposed to potentially higher volatility based on developments in the Middle East or macro-linked statements. Stay alert!
Read more: For analysis of today’s activity in altcoins and derivatives, see Crypto Markets Today
What to Watch
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Crypto
- Macro
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for March est. 48K (Prev. -92K)
- April 3, 8:30 a.m.: U.S. Unemployment Rate for March est. 4.5% (Prev. 4.4%)
- April 3, 10:00 a.m.: U.S. ISM Services PMI for March (Prev. 56.1)
- Earnings (Estimates based on FactSet data)
Token Events
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
- Governance votes & calls
- SSV Network DAO is voting across two proposals to integrate ENS names for core protocol contracts to enhance security against phishing, and to establish a soft fee floor for public operators to ensure economic sustainability. Voting ends April 3.
- Unlocks
- Token Launches
Conferences
For a more comprehensive list of events this week, see CoinDesk’s “Crypto Week Ahead“.
Market Movements
- BTC is down 0.35% from 4 p.m. ET Thursday at $66,785.73 (24hrs: +0.65%)
- ETH is unchanged at $2,058.20 (24hrs: +0.94%)
- CoinDesk 20 is up 0.26% at 1,902.32 (24hrs: +0.80%)
- Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 1 bps at 2.77%
- BTC funding rate is at -0.0007% (-0.7731% annualized) on Binance
- DXY is unchanged at 99.99
- Gold futures are up 1.07% at $4,701.30
- Silver futures are up 0.60% at $73.17
- Nikkei 225 closed up 1.26% at 53,123.49
- Hang Seng closed down 0.70% at 25,116.53
- FTSE 100 is unchanged at 10,436.29
- Euro Stoxx 50 is down 0.26% at 5,678.00
- DJIA closed on Thursday down 0.13% at 46,504.67
- S&P 500 closed up 0.11% at 6,582.69
- Nasdaq Composite closed up 0.18% at 21,879.18
- S&P/TSX Composite closed up 0.46% at 33,108.20
- U.S. 10-Year Treasury rate is down 1 bps at 4.31%
- E-mini S&P 500 futures are up 0.12% at 6,613.00
- E-mini Nasdaq-100 futures are up 0.10% at 24,167.25
- E-mini Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 0.10% at 46,678.00
Bitcoin Stats
- BTC Dominance: 58.54% (-0.24%)
- Ether to bitcoin ratio: 0.030821 (0.23%)
- Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 997 EH/s
- Hashprice (spot): $30.68
- Total Fees: 2.54 BTC / $170,134
- CME Futures Open Interest: 106,230 BTC
- BTC priced in gold: 15.9 oz
- BTC vs gold market cap: 4.46%
Technical Analysis
- The chart shows daily swings in tether’s dominance rate in candlestick format. The dominance rate represents the share of stablecoin tether in the total crypto market.
- The dominance rate is rising again after a temporary pullback, or counter-trend correction. This breakout suggests that the broader uptrend in dominance has likely resumed.
- This has bearish implications for the broader market, as dollar-pegged assets like Tether typically gain dominance during market-wide sell-offs.
Crypto Equities
- Coinbase Global (COIN): closed on Thursday at $171.46 (–0.88%), unchanged in after-hours
- Galaxy Digital (GLXY): closed at $17.64 (+1.55%), +0.28% at $17.69
- MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $8.71 (+8.33%), –1.03% at $8.62
- Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $12.86 (+2.47%), unchanged at $12.86
- Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $16.23 (+6.08%), –0.62% at $16.13
- CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $8.79 (+1.97%), unchanged at $8.80
- Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $6.10 (–8.68%), –0.80% at $6.05
- CoinShares Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $35.76 (+2.58%), –0.17% at $35.70
- Circle Internet Group (CRCL): closed at $90.26 (–0.53%), +0.60% at $90.80
- Bullish (BLSH): closed at $36.37 (+3.71%), –0.19% at $36.30
Crypto Treasury Companies
- Strategy (MSTR): closed at $119.83 (–2.40%), +0.34% at $120.24
- Strive Asset Management (ASST): closed at $9.75 (–4.04%), +0.10% at $9.76
- SharpLink Gaming (SBET): closed at $6.19 (–4.18%), +0.32% at $6.21
- Upexi (UPXI): closed at $0.98 (–1.32%), –2.12% at $0.95
- Lite Strategy (LITS): closed at $1.12 (–0.88%), unchanged at $1.12
ETF Flows
Spot BTC ETFs
- Daily net flow: $9 million
- Cumulative net flows: $55.93 billion
- Total BTC holdings ~ 1.28 million
Spot ETH ETFs
- Daily net flow: -$71.2 million
- Cumulative net flows: $11.51 billion
- Total ETH holdings ~ 5.69 million
Source: Farside Investors
While You Were Sleeping
French ship crosses Strait of Hormuz in first Western European transit during Iran war (euronews): The news could encourage other carriers to resume operations if the corridor proves reliable in the coming days and it follows Iran’s deputy foreign minister Kazem Gharibabadi announcement of a deal with Oman to secure traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
U.S. repatriates Chinese drug fugitive in a sign of stabilizing ties (The Wall Street Journal): This is the first case of its kind in recent years and is described as a rare move that points to cooperation ahead of the planned Trump-Xi summit next month.
Iran strikes Gulf energy sites as Trump warns of further attacks (Bloomberg): Iran targeted more sites in Arab Gulf states, including in Kuwait Friday morning, hours after Trump issued fresh threats against Iranian infrastructure to pressure Tehran to start peace negotiations.
Japan turns up FX heat as volatility rises, signals readiness to act (Reuters): The yen, trading near the psychologically key 160-per-dollar mark, lingered at levels that stoke concerns of market intervention, highlighting growing unease over the speed and scale of its decline.
After months of continuous growth, the RWA sector is showing its first signs of a slowdown.
Distributed asset value sits at $27.49 billion with only 1.74% growth over the past 30 days. Stablecoins even recorded a slight decline.
RWA Growth is Dying Out
Current data from RWA.xyz shows the following picture:
- Distributed Asset Value: $27.49 billion, up 1.74% in a month.
- Represented Asset Value: $403.28 billion, up 3.33%.
- Total Asset Holders: 707,564, up 5.7%.
- Total Stablecoin Value: $299.88 billion, down 0.07%.
- Total Stablecoin Holders: 241.80 million, up 4.35%.
The number of holders continues to grow, but the value is not keeping pace. New market participants are entering, but bringing less fresh capital than in previous months.
Fun Fact: Despite the slowdown, RWA distributed value has grown from under $5 billion in early 2024 to nearly $28 billion today. The long-term trend remains intact!
Which RWA Segments Are Cooling
Several asset categories are contributing to the slowdown:
- Commodities: Gold prices have stagnated, and tokenized gold follows the underlying asset.
- US Treasuries: Still the largest segment in the RWA market, but momentum has flattened. Initial demand for tokenized T-bills appears to be stabilizing.
- Stocks and Asset-Backed Credit: Both categories are also showing reduced growth.
The chart from RWA.xyz displays a clear pattern: explosive growth through 2024 and into early 2025, followed by a gradual flattening in recent months.
A monthly growth rate of 1.74% does not constitute a crash. Annualized, that still represents over 20% growth.
However, compared to the triple-digit percentage gains the RWA sector recorded in 2024, the deceleration is clearly visible.
The slight 0.07% decline in stablecoins deserves particular attention. Stablecoins often serve as an entry point into tokenized assets. A shrinking pool may indicate reduced on-chain activity.
On the positive side: asset holders grew by 5.71%. New participants continue to enter the market, though with more cautious capital allocation.
The RWA sector appears to be entering a phase of normalization following a period of strong growth. Whether this represents a temporary consolidation or the beginning of a longer trend remains to be seen in the coming months.
The post Why the RWA Market Is Slowing Down: Is the Boom Over? appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Corporate Bitcoin (BTC) holders are diverging into two distinct paths amid continued market pressure. While Strategy held steady on its massive BTC reserves, Nakamoto Holdings moved in the opposite direction, selling at a loss and trimming exposure as it reworks its balance sheet.
The contrast highlights a growing divide in the corporate Bitcoin treasury model. Some holders have refused to sell, treating BTC as a long-term reserve asset and doubling down through volatility, while others are being forced to unlock liquidity, book losses or rethink capital allocation.
With Bitcoin down 46% from its peak, the risks behind debt-fueled or aggressive buying strategies are becoming harder to ignore.
Elsewhere, a proposed Bitcoin-backed municipal bond in New Hampshire is moving closer to issuance. It has now received a speculative-grade rating from Moody’s, underscoring both the appeal and the risks of tying public financing to digital assets.
Nakamoto realizes losses as Bitcoin treasury model comes under pressure
Bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto Holdings sold roughly $20 million worth of Bitcoin in March, executing the sale at prices well below its prior acquisition costs. The transaction reduced its holdings to just over 5,000 BTC and marked a shift from unrealized to realized losses.
The company sold approximately 284 BTC at around $70,400 per coin, significantly less than its average purchase price. The proceeds were earmarked for working capital and business investments tied to recent mergers.
Alongside the crypto sale, Nakamoto also cut its equity exposure to Japanese company Metaplanet, selling millions of shares at a loss. The moves point to a broader balance-sheet reset as digital asset treasury companies come under pressure.
Strategy pauses Bitcoin buys, keeps its treasury intact
Michael Saylor’s Strategy broke a months-long pattern of steady Bitcoin accumulation, reporting no purchases during the latest weekly disclosure period.
The pause stands out because Strategy has maintained consistent buying as a core part of its corporate identity and capital strategy, especially during the recent market downtrend that has seen Bitcoin fall from $120,000 to below $70,000.
Weekly disclosures have become a signal for institutional demand, and even a temporary halt could suggest squeamishness over market conditions, capital availability or the pace of buying. Strategy still holds roughly 762,000 BTC, maintaining its position as the largest corporate holder of the asset.
New Hampshire Bitcoin-backed bond inches toward reality after Moody’s rating
A proposed Bitcoin-backed municipal bond in New Hampshire has moved a step closer to issuance after receiving a Ba2 rating, below investment grade, from Moody’s. The structure would give investors exposure to Bitcoin-linked returns within a public finance framework, with proceeds expected to support public infrastructure and development projects.
The planned issuance, reportedly around $100 million, would be backed by Bitcoin collateral rather than traditional tax revenues. Repayments would depend on returns from that collateral, introducing a new approach that ties crypto markets to municipal borrowing.
CoinShares debuts on Nasdaq following SPAC deal
Digital asset manager CoinShares launched on the Nasdaq on Wednesday following a merger with special purpose acquisition company Vine Hill Capital, marking another step in bringing crypto-native companies to US public markets.
The deal gives CoinShares access to a broader investor base and deeper capital markets, while offering public market investors exposure to a company focused on digital asset products and infrastructure. SPAC structures have remained a viable route for crypto companies seeking listings despite shifting market conditions.
As Cointelegraph previously reported, the SPAC merger valued CoinShares at roughly $1.2 billion.
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Coinbase got conditional approval from the OCC for its trust, a step toward federal oversight for its offerings to replace the current state by state licensing approach.
Coinbase announced on Thursday that it has received conditional approval from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) to establish Coinbase National Trust Company, a non-insured national trust bank to be headquartered in New York.
The approval marks a step toward Coinbase operating as a federally regulated digital asset custodian — and the latest milestone in a sweeping regulatory shift reshaping how crypto firms interact with the U.S. banking system.
The preliminary green light requires Coinbase to build out compliance systems, hire key staff, pass regulatory reviews, and demonstrate strong risk management and anti-money-laundering controls before it can secure a full charter.
A national trust bank charter gives Coinbase a single federal regulator — the OCC — in place of the patchwork of state money transmitter licenses it currently holds, allowing it to offer custody, safekeeping, and related digital asset services in a fiduciary capacity as a qualified custodian under SEC regulations.
In yesterday’s blog post, the largest U.S. centralized exchange noted that it does not plan to become a commercial bank:
“Coinbase is not becoming a commercial bank. We will not be taking retail deposits. We will not be engaging in fractional reserve banking.”
Looking ahead, Coinbase’s chief legal officer told CNBC that the company plans to explore payment infrastructure products alongside its custody business, with an eye on expanding stablecoin use — particularly USDC — as a mainstream global payment method.
Coinbase joins a crowded field of crypto firms racing to secure federal charters under the OCC’s current leadership.
Circle applied for its own national trust bank license — to be called First National Digital Currency Bank — and received conditional approval in December 2025. Crypto.com similarly secured conditional OCC approval for its Foris Dax National Trust Bank in February.
The trend has not gone uncontested: the Bank Policy Institute, whose members include JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, is reportedly weighing a lawsuit against the OCC over what it sees as an uneven regulatory playing field.
This article was written with the assistance of AI workflows. All our stories are curated, edited and fact-checked by a human.
XRP Ledger Chosen to Be the Research Framework
XRP Ledger will be used as the fundamental blockchain platform in the study. In addition, it will discuss how the network assists in payment processing in various markets. In this way, the firms would assess the technical performance under actual conditions. The companies explained that the project does not imply the immediate product rollout, but it will seek to collect technical and regulatory experience to be used in the future. Therefore, the research will guide long-term infrastructure planning.
Japan and South Korea are still working on creating stablecoin and blockchain laws. As a result, there are differences between two systems that should be analyzed in detail. The paper will examine compliance standards in the two jurisdictions. In the study, the researchers will evaluate what blockchain is doing with existing payment infrastructure. It will also compare compatibility with current banking and remittance systems. This will help to ensure that the solutions that will be developed in the future can work within the set frameworks.
The two companies will consider transaction flows and operating models. Therefore, the work will touch upon the stability and performance of the system under real conditions. In addition, it will also analyze some of the risks that may be associated with blockchain-based payments. The project identifies a number of areas of focus on which to analyze. It will look at the issues in the business environment and institutional differences between the two nations. Also, it will determine technical and operational obstacles that influence adoption.
Payments Under Evaluation Use Cases
The companies will consider the real-life uses of blockchain in payments. Therefore, they seek to find feasible applications of cross-border remittances. This will assist in laying down the future implementation directions. This research follows Ripple as it keeps on expanding partnerships with the global payment networks. Furthermore, South Korea has seen more currency being traded on local exchanges, indicating a growth of the stablecoin activity in the country. Such developments give a background to current research. The collaborative research creates a framework for analysing blockchain payments in two regulated markets. In addition, it assists in the planning of cross-border financial infrastructure in the future.
South Korea extradites alleged drug boss Park Wang‑yeol and prepares a blockchain forensics push to trace at least 6.8b won in Bitcoin‑linked drug proceeds.
Summary
- South Korea has extradited alleged drug kingpin Park Wang-yeol from the Philippines and placed him under a joint drug crime task force.
- Investigators will scrutinize Bitcoin wallet activity to trace at least 6.8 billion won (about $5 million) in confirmed proceeds and search for far larger hidden assets.
- The case showcases how Korean law enforcement now leans on blockchain forensics to unwind complex, cross-border narcotics networks.
South Korean authorities have taken custody of alleged “drug lord” Park Wang‑yeol, extradited from a Philippine prison where he was serving a 60‑year sentence for the 2016 “sugarcane field” triple homicide, to face new narcotics and money‑laundering charges at home. Reuters reported that Park, believed to be 47, is suspected of running a drug trafficking ring from inside his Philippine cell, coordinating shipments of “large quantities” of methamphetamine and other narcotics into South Korea via encrypted apps. According to Korean media summaries cited by outlets including the Dong‑A Ilbo, officials estimate he oversaw a monthly drug business worth roughly 30 billion won (around $22 million), turning prison into a command center rather than a constraint.
The Korean Drug Crime Joint Investigation Headquarters — a consolidated task force of prosecutors and police — has made clear that tracing Park’s financial footprint will rely heavily on on‑chain analysis of Bitcoin wallets believed to have received drug proceeds. While confirmed criminal takings in the current indictment stand at roughly 6.8 billion won (just over $5 million), investigators told domestic media they suspect the true scale of assets moved through crypto wallets between November 2019 and July 2024 is “several times larger.
Reporting from Chosun Ilbo details how Park allegedly directed accomplices in Korea to sell drugs sourced from abroad — including at least 4.9 kilograms of methamphetamine and thousands of ecstasy and ketamine doses — then funneled profits through digital channels rather than traditional banking rails. The task force has identified more than 200 accomplices across roles such as suppliers, smugglers and street dealers, underlining the networked nature of the operation and the need for tools that can map complex flows of funds.
South Korea has quietly built one of the more aggressive crypto‑crime enforcement programs in Asia, deploying specialist units that routinely use blockchain analytics platforms to deanonymize wallets and claw back illicit proceeds. A 2024 briefing from Blockchain Intelligence Group noted that Seoul’s joint investigation division recovered roughly 163.87 billion won (about $121 million) in crypto‑linked criminal proceeds in a single year, relying on tools that “identify clusters of wallets,” “track the flow of funds” and link addresses to real‑world entities.
Recent cases underscore both the potential and pitfalls of this approach: DL News reported in February that prosecutors managed to recover $22 million worth of Bitcoin that had effectively gone “missing” in an earlier phishing investigation, even as separate lapses saw police mismanage and temporarily lose more than $1.4 million in seized BTC. In that context, the Park Wang‑yeol probe is emerging as a showcase for how far Korean authorities can push on‑chain forensics to pierce one of the country’s most notorious narcotics empires — and whether they can do so while tightening their own controls over seized digital assets.
Hyperliquid (HYPE) price trades near $35.60 on April 3, carrying a 13% monthly gain that masks an 8% decline over the past seven days.
On the surface, the monthly performance looks strong for a market under pressure. However, the 8-hour chart is forming a bearish reversal pattern, institutional money flow is diverging from price, and the platform’s own financial metrics show a sharp deterioration in capital commitment. The bounce currently underway may extend further before the structure breaks, but the weight of evidence points toward eventual weakness.
An Inverse Cup Forms as Big Money Quietly Exits
Since March 10, Hyperliquid price has been tracing an inverse cup and handle pattern on the 8-hour chart, a bearish reversal structure. The current bounce is forming what closely resembles the handle, a smaller upward drift within a narrowing channel before a potential breakdown.
The handle remains intact as long as HYPE stays below $40.30. A confirmed break below the neckline would activate the pattern’s measured move, projecting approximately 22% downside from the neckline.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for institutional buying and selling pressure, confirms the weakness behind the pattern. Since late February, while HYPE price trended higher, CMF trended lower, deepening into negative territory at -0.06. That bearish divergence indicates that large participants have been reducing exposure throughout the rally.
The on-chain data from Dune Analytics possibly explains why. Hyperliquid’s USDC-based assets under management (AUM) on Arbitrum peaked at $4.02 billion around mid-September 2025. By March 30, 2026, that figure had dropped to $1.85 billion, a 54% decline. USDC net flow, which measures the difference between deposits and withdrawals, remains in negative territory, meaning more stablecoins are leaving the platform than entering.
The AUM decline reflects a broader DeFi capital contraction. Total DEX spot volume across all platforms fell to $155 billion in March 2026, its lowest level since September 2024.
As a derivatives-focused platform with spot offering too, Hyperliquid allows traders to generate outsized volume through leverage with relatively small USDC deposits.
When capital commitment shrinks at the platform level while price rises, the rally lacks the financial foundation to sustain itself. The liquidation map now determines whether the bounce extends before the pattern resolves.
Liquidation Imbalance Could Fuel a Bounce Before the Break
The Binance HYPE/USDT liquidation map adds an important layer that complicates the bearish timeline. Over the past seven days, the HYPE liquidation picture is heavily skewed toward shorts. Cumulative short liquidation leverage stands at $23.92 million, while long liquidation leverage sits at just $7.92 million. That roughly 75% tilt toward shorts means even a modest upward price move could trigger a cascade of forced short closures, temporarily pushing Hyperliquid price higher.
This short-heavy 7-day positioning likely exists because the past week’s 8% decline already flushed most of the recent long positions through liquidations. What remains are new shorts betting on continued weakness.
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However, the 30-day liquidation map flips the picture. Over that timeframe, cumulative long leverage is $33.85 million against $22.73 million in shorts.
The roughly 30% tilt toward longs means the broader positioning still favors upside bets. If the bounce driven by 7-day short squeezes fails to reclaim key levels and price resumes its decline, those 30-day long positions become vulnerable. A move toward the neckline at $34.13 could trigger both the pattern breakdown and a fresh wave of long liquidations, accelerating the sell-off.
The liquidation data therefore supports a scenario where the handle extends higher on short-term short squeezes before the broader structure breaks down under the weight of long-biased leverage and declining capital flows.
Hyperliquid Price Levels That Decide the Pattern
The 8-hour chart with Fibonacci levels frames the path for Hyperliquid price from here. HYPE currently trades at $35.60, sitting between the 0.382 Fib at $35.53 and the 0.236 Fib at $36.39.
For the bounce to gain meaningful traction, HYPE needs to clear $36.39 first, followed by $37.79. A move above $40.30 would weaken the inverse cup and handle structure, and reclaiming $43.78 would invalidate the pattern entirely.
On the downside, $34.83 acts as the immediate floor. A close below $34.13 confirms the neckline break and activates the measured move, projecting a 22% decline that could take HYPE price toward $26.81.
Between $34.13 and $26.81, interim support sits at $33.14, $31.87 and $28.22.
Inverse cup and handle patterns do not always complete. The short-heavy 7-day liquidation setup could produce a squeeze that pushes price above the handle, delaying or invalidating the breakdown. However, the combination of falling CMF, shrinking AUM, negative USDC flows, and a long-biased 30-day leverage structure all suggest the bounce is more likely a pause than a reversal.
A close below $34.13 separates a temporary squeeze-driven bounce from a pattern-confirmed decline toward $26.81. But reclaiming $40.30 would be the first evidence of near-term strength.
The post Hyperliquid Price Rallied 13% but the Money Underneath Tells Another Story appeared first on BeInCrypto.
Nasdaq-listed Bitcoin miner Riot Platforms sold 3,778 BTC in the first quarter of 2026, generating roughly $289.5 million in net proceeds.
Riot Platforms, a major publicly traded Bitcoin mining company listed on Nasdaq, sold 3,778 BTC during Q1 2026, netting approximately $289.5 million in proceeds. The sale represents a significant reduction in the miner’s Bitcoin holdings and marks a notable shift in the company’s position management strategy.
The move aligns with broader selling activity across the Bitcoin mining sector. Multiple publicly traded miners have collectively sold more than 15,000 BTC in recent months, signaling increased liquidation pressure within the industry.
Sources: Riot Platforms
This article was generated automatically by The Defiant’s AI news system from publicly available sources.
A lawyer who helped Kalshi win a key court fight against the federal government now helps the federal government protect Kalshi from state attorneys general.
Yaakov Roth, a former Jones Day white shoe lawyer who represented Kalshi in the landmark KalshiEX v. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) case, appeared by name on federal complaints filed yesterday against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut.
His current title is now Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney General, Department of Justice (DOJ) Civil Division. These federal lawsuits argue that state gambling laws should have little jurisdiction over prediction markets due to the CFTC’s oversight.
In essence, the suits are attempts by the CFTC to protect Kalshi from state-level actions.
Roth joined the DOJ in February 2025. He had already secured a pivotal victory in late 2024 when the DC Circuit denied the CFTC’s emergency stay against Kalshi’s event contracts contingent on US elections. In January 2025, Roth argued the full appeal, then joined DOJ. The CFTC later dropped its appeal against Kalshi in May 2025 in a victory for Roth.
The Biden-era CFTC disapproved of Kalshi’s proposed congressional control election contracts in 2023. Kalshi then sued the CFTC, challenging that decision. By May 2025, the Trump-era CFTC voluntarily dropped the commissioners’ appeal.
Now at the US government’s DOJ instead of Kalshi’s law firm Jones Day, Roth has been found on a team on the other side of the “v.” (versus) separator in lawsuit titles involving Kalshi.
The Kalshi-government lawyer pipeline
Roth is not the only former Kalshi lawyer to land a government job.
Eliezer Mishory, Kalshi’s former General Counsel lawyer, stepped down in March 2025 to take a DOGE-linked role at the SEC, where his title is Senior Advisor to the Chairman.
Mishory previously worked at the CFTC under Brian Quintenz.
Read more: Are Polymarket and Kalshi decentralized?
Quintenz, a former CFTC commissioner, has sat on Kalshi’s board since 2021.
Trump nominated Quintenz as Chairman of the CFTC in February 2025. However, his nomination was withdrawn in September 2025 amid mounting concerns, such as documents obtained by Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) requests revealing his incoming staff seeking CFTC information about Kalshi’s competitors or the Winklevoss twins lobbying Trump directly against his candidacy.
Kalshi also has another strong connection to the White House via Donald Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr. He has served as an advisor to Kalshi and as an advisory board member of Polymarket; additionally, he is an investor in Polymarket through a venture capital firm, 1789 Capital.
The federal government that sued Kalshi now cushions it from states
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour celebrated Roth’s DOJ appointment on LinkedIn. “Without Yaakov Roth’s legal guidance and leadership, prediction markets in America wouldn’t be where they are today,” Mansour wrote. He called Roth “arguably one of the best appellate litigators in the country” and added, “We couldn’t be more excited for him and his next journey at the DOJ.”
Indeed.
The three state-level lawsuits involve cease-and-desist letters to Kalshi, Polymarket, and other prediction market operators.
Arizona went furthest. It filed 20 criminal charges against Kalshi in March 2026, including four counts of election wagering.
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig, a Trump appointee, declared in February that the agency would “no longer sit idly by” while states challenged its authority. His Innovation Advisory Committee includes executives from Kalshi, Polymarket, FanDuel, and DraftKings. Its 35 members are almost entirely industry executives.
Sports betting accounted for the majority of Kalshi’s trading volume in recent months. The company reported over $1 billion in Super Bowl trading volume alone. States call those trading contracts gambling. The Trump administration calls them non-gambling derivatives or prediction markets; specifically, it considers them commodity event contracts.
The question is probably not whether the revolving door between Kalshi and federal agencies spins. It is whether any lawyer, or anyone, plans to stop it.
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AI launchpad Clanker’s new ecosystem fund will recycle most protocol fees on Base into CLANKER buybacks, grants, and infra for Farcaster’s creator community.
Summary
- AI launchpad Clanker, now owned by Neynar via its acquisition of Farcaster, has launched the Clanker Ecosystem Fund to recycle protocol fees back into builders.
- The fund has already deployed $8 million to buy 14% of the CLANKER supply, with future fees earmarked for infrastructure and community initiatives across Clanker and Farcaster.
- Clanker has generated over $50 million in cumulative protocol fees on Base since late 2024, cementing it as one of the highest‑earning SocialFi primitives.
AI‑driven token launchpad Clanker has unveiled the Clanker Ecosystem Fund (CEF), committing to redirect a significant share of protocol fees to creators, infrastructure teams and communities building on Clanker and Farcaster. Neynar, which is acquiring decentralized social protocol Farcaster and its associated assets, now controls Clanker’s contracts and treasury, with Farcaster co‑founder Dan Romero saying the package “adds even stronger commercial returns” thanks to Clanker’s fee machine on Base. Operated as an autonomous AI launchpad on Coinbase’s Base network, Clanker has already generated more than $50 million in cumulative protocol fees since its late‑2024 launch, according to KuCoin and BingX research.
In its latest update, Farcaster disclosed that “$8 million has already been used to purchase 14% of CLANKER,” effectively converting a chunk of past protocol fees into long‑term exposure to the launchpad’s native asset and its community. That build on earlier commitments laid out when Farcaster first acquired Clanker in October 2025, where the team pledged that “two‑thirds (2/3) of the current and future fees in the Clanker ecosystem will be allocated to purchase and redeem tokens $CLANKER,” while around 7% of supply was locked in one‑sided liquidity to deepen markets.
Farcaster summarized the model on X by noting that Clanker had already used “two‑thirds of the protocol fees generated in the previous day to purchase approximately $65,000 worth of CLANKER tokens,” with the remaining third held in USDC for tax obligations, and said the buyback process would be automated over time. According to KuCoin’s coverage of the protocol, Clanker’s fee engine is powered by a 1% transaction fee on tokens it deploys, with 40% of that going to token creators and 60% to the protocol—funds that CEF will now recycle into grants, infrastructure and additional buybacks.
Clanker runs as an AI agent embedded in the Farcaster social graph, allowing users to mint and list ERC‑20 tokens on Uniswap V3 simply by tagging the bot in a cast, which then handles minting, WETH pairing and LP token locking until 2100. KuCoin and BingX both highlight that this model has turned Clanker into a “yield‑generating machine for the Base network,” with weekly protocol fees recently surpassing $8 million on record weeks and daily token launches pushing toward 13,000.
As Neynar absorbs Farcaster’s infrastructure and Clanker’s revenue stream, analysts at outlets such as Bankless argue the deal effectively makes Neynar a core economic node for Base‑native SocialFi, even as Merkle Manufactory returns roughly $180 million in raised capital to investors. Within that context, CEF’s decision to route tens of millions of dollars in protocol cash flow back into creators and infra looks less like a marketing stunt and more like an attempt to hard‑wire “real yield” and long‑term loyalty into one of Base’s most profitable—and most copy‑pasted—AI launchpad designs.
President Trump’s April 1 address on the Iran war promised two to three more weeks of intense military strikes, reversing a two-day stock market relief rally and sending oil above $110 per barrel.
The speech divided US stocks into clear winners and losers. BeInCrypto analysts identified three stocks where the impact was most visible. The list includes one energy name riding the war premium higher.
The list also has two oil-dependent companies whose recoveries were cut short within hours. The selection is based on price reaction, chart structure, and the degree to which each business model directly connects to sustained oil prices.
APA Corporation (NASDAQ: APA)
APA Corporation (APA) is among the US stocks that have benefited most directly from the Iran conflict. As a pure-play oil and gas exploration and production (E&P) company, every dollar increase in crude flows almost directly to APA’s bottom line.
Trump’s pledge to continue strikes and his threat to target Iran’s energy infrastructure signal sustained supply disruption, which supports elevated crude prices for the foreseeable future.
The daily chart shows that APA has rallied approximately 96% since early January, forming a clear pole-and-bull-flag pattern. Since March 30, prices have consolidated inside a flag.
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), a proxy for institutional buying and selling pressure, has been consistently making higher highs throughout the rally, currently reading 0.18.
That persistent institutional inflow confirms that big money is backing the move rather than fading it.
On April 2, APA’s share price peaked at $43.93 but failed to break the upper trendline of the flag. A clean close above $43.98 would confirm the breakout and target $49.80 initially, followed by $55.63 and $65.06 on the extended projection.
However, a break below $40.38 would end the flag prematurely, though a full invalidation of the bullish structure would require a move below $31.56.
Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL)
Carnival Corporation (CCL) sits on the opposite end of the oil price chain. As the world’s largest cruise operator, fuel represents one of its highest variable costs.
Rising oil compresses margins directly, while sustained geopolitical uncertainty dampens consumer willingness to book voyages, creating a double headwind that few sectors absorb as severely.
Since peaking at $34.05 on February 6, Carnival stock has been trading inside a bearish descending channel on the daily chart. It fell approximately 10% over the past month as oil prices climbed.
A bullish divergence had been forming from mid-November to late March, in which the price made a lower low while the Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator, made a higher low.
That divergence suggested weakening sell-side momentum and triggered a bounce as de-escalation hopes lifted markets earlier in the week.
Trump’s speech reversed the setup. The bounce stalled, and prices fell 3.54% on April 2 as the two-to-three-week war extension reignited fears of prolonged $110 oil.
The bullish divergence technically remains intact, meaning a recovery is still possible if de-escalation resurfaces. However, the path of least resistance points lower as long as oil stays elevated.
A move above $26.77 would begin to shift momentum, with $30.13 as the level that turns the structure neutral. On the downside, $23.80 acts as immediate support.
A break below $21.45 would confirm a pattern breakdown and open the path toward $20.19 and $18.41.
United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ: UAL)
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) experienced perhaps the most dramatic whiplash among US stocks this week. Jet fuel typically accounts for 25-35% of an airline’s operating expenses, making airline stocks among the most oil-sensitive equities in the market.
When oil rises, margins compress immediately because airlines cannot pass fuel costs to passengers fast enough through surcharges.
Between March 27 and April 1, UAL’s share price surged 14%. De-escalation hopes pushed oil lower and lifted the entire travel sector. That rally brought the price back above the 20-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), a short-term trend indicator that gives greater weight to recent price action, at $93.71.
Trump’s speech erased the recovery. UAL fell approximately 8% from its April 1 high, closing at $92.21 on April 2, a 3% daily loss. The drop pushed the stock back below the 20-day EMA, which matters because the last time UAL reclaimed it on February 3, it preceded a 9% rally. Losing it now removes that short-term floor.
The broader damage is substantial. Since early February, UAL has fallen 28%. Right from $118.88 to its March 30 low of $84.62. The dip was driven entirely by oil-related margin fears.
If markets reopen on Monday with positive developments, reclaiming $93.71 would restore the 20-day EMA floor.
Above that, $97.71 and $101 become the next targets, with $101.75 aligning closely with the 50-day and 100-day EMAs. A move above $101.75 would place UAL above every major moving average for the first time since early February.
However, if oil stays above $110 and the war timeline extends, $84.62 remains the floor. A break below that level exposes deeper downside.
The post 3 US Stocks Heavily Affected by Trump’s Iran Speech This Week appeared first on BeInCrypto.
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