Bitcoin Could Drop to $45K by Late 2026, Analyst Warns Using Historical Halving Cycle Data

TLDR:

• Bitcoin historical halving cycles show 363-406 day pattern from ATH to bottom across 2012, 2016, and 2020 
• October-November 2026 identified as highest probability window for cycle bottom based on time analysis 
• Ultimate price target ranges between $45,000-$50,000 with current accumulation starting at $60,000 zone 
• NUPL on-chain indicator has not yet reached capitulation levels seen in previous 2018 and 2022 bottoms 

A cryptocurrency analyst has shared a detailed thesis suggesting Bitcoin could continue declining throughout 2026.

The prediction relies on historical halving cycle data spanning over a decade. Analyst, Wimar. X tracks both temporal and price-based metrics.

This approach differs from the conventional price-only analysis that many traders employ. The forecast anticipates a cycle bottom occurring between October and November 2026.

Time-Based Analysis Points to Late 2026 Bottom

The analyst’s methodology centers on measuring days from all-time highs to cycle lows following Bitcoin halvings. Historical data shows the 2012 cycle took 406 days to reach bottom.

The 2016 cycle required 363 days for the same journey. Meanwhile, the 2020 cycle saw 376 days pass before hitting its lowest point. These numbers cluster within a narrow range, creating a predictable pattern.

Building on this consistency, the current cycle projects a similar timeline. The analyst calculates October through November 2026 as the highest probability window for the next major bottom.

This time-focused strategy removes emotional decision-making from the equation. According to the post, buying during this window will occur regardless of price levels.

The analyst emphasizes that most market participants miss optimal entry points. They focus exclusively on price action while ignoring temporal patterns.

This narrow view leads to missed opportunities when historical windows align. The time-based approach aims to prevent getting “front run” by market movements.

Wimar.X stated that execution of daily purchases worth $500,000 begins when either time or price conditions trigger.

The commitment to this strategy remains firm despite market volatility. Past predictions have already materialized, including the recent drop into the $60,000 range.

Price Targets and On-Chain Indicators Signal Further Downside

The price component of the analysis sets $60,000 as an initial accumulation zone. The analyst began purchasing Bitcoin after prices entered this territory.

However, waiting for perfect price levels can result in missing entire market moves. This pragmatic approach balances patience with opportunistic buying.

A lower price target sits between $45,000 and $50,000 by year-end 2026. This range represents the analyst’s “ultimate bottom target” for aggressive accumulation.

The prediction acknowledges the current risk of lower lows materializing. Market conditions remain uncertain, but historical precedent guides the strategy.

Net Unrealized Profit/Loss serves as the third analytical pillar. This on-chain metric successfully identified cycle bottoms in 2018, during the COVID crash, and in 2022.

Current readings show the market has not yet reached the capitulation zone. The NUPL indicator historically appears in a specific blue zone during major bottoms.

The analyst’s experience dates back to 2016, providing perspective through multiple market cycles. Prior predictions, including calls made when Bitcoin traded near $114,000, have proven accurate.

The framework combines quantitative analysis with disciplined execution across both time and price dimensions.