TLDR:

• All 200 top insider transactions were sales, marking unusual broad risk reduction among insiders. 
• Bitcoin ETFs saw significant outflows as the price dipped below key technical support levels. 
• ETF flows have fluctuated widely, signaling shifting institutional sentiment toward crypto exposure. 
• Concurrent declines in BTC, ETH, and ETFs indicate heightened market correlation and risk aversion.

The Insider Selling Storm 2026 narrative emerges amid real market stress and mixed institutional flows. Bitcoin recently traded near $63,000–$74,000 after a multi‑month selloff that erased much of 2025’s gains. 

Major Bitcoin ETFs like iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s FBTC saw outflows and deep losses as prices fell below support levels. 

Despite near‑term weakness, Bitcoin ETF flows have swung between record inflows and heavy redemptions in recent months. This points to a volatile institutional interest as macro risks rise.

Insider Activity Signals Market Caution

High-volume insider trades last week show that all 200 meaningful transactions were sales. No significant purchases occurred, highlighting informed caution across sectors.

Public messaging remains optimistic, but insider behavior diverges sharply. Confidence is high in narratives, yet top-level actors systematically reduce exposure. 

Market participants respond to risk rather than headline sentiment. Structured risk management drives uniform selling patterns. 

Insiders offload overvalued and liquid assets while preserving scarce, durable holdings. Their actions align with simultaneous declines across multiple markets globally.

Trading volume provides further clarity. While prices stabilized temporarily, reduced liquidity suggests relief rallies are absorption events. 

Participants are used strategically as exit points rather than accumulation opportunities. This behavior demonstrates that the market is in a late-cycle phase. 

Distribution occurs quietly as informed sellers convert exposure into liquidity, leaving fewer active buyers for high-risk assets.

Synchronized Declines and Defensive Positioning

Bitcoin fell to $60,000 while silver dipped to $64, and major tech stocks weakened sharply during the same period. Housing shows early signs of reduced activity.

Short-term price recovery is evident but weak. Lower trading volumes indicate the bounce is temporary and driven by selective buyers.

Stablecoins, including USDT and USDC, exhibit steady inflows, signaling defensive capital allocation. Long-duration assets such as Bitcoin, metals, and select real estate remain largely held. 

These assets retain value when financial markets rely on confidence rather than scarcity, emphasizing durability and risk protection.

Relief rallies are distribution phases. Informed participants sell methodically while weaker buyers absorb inventory. 

Market breadth remains thin, and recovery depends on volume expansion, not temporary price movements.

Capital allocation is increasingly selective. Participants seek optionality through liquid assets and avoid overvalued securities. 

Market structure shows calm superficially, but underlying depth reflects cautious positioning and preparation for volatility.

Japan’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, often dubbed the country’s “Iron Lady,” has secured a historic landslide victory in the February 8, 2026, snap parliamentary elections. Her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) is projected to win between 274 and 326 of the 465 seats in the lower house, marking the largest post-war electoral margin for any Japanese party.

The decisive result consolidates Takaichi’s authority and positions her to pursue ambitious economic and regulatory reforms.

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Japan’s Sanae Takaichi Secures Landslide Win, Sets Stage for Crypto Tax Reform

Markets reacted swiftly to the outcome. The dollar/yen climbed 0.2% to 157, while the BTC/JPY trading pair rose almost 5%, signaling investor confidence in Takaichi’s pro-growth agenda.

This so-called “Takaichi trade” draws momentum from expectations of fiscal stimulus, loose monetary policy, and increased liquidity.

It has already lifted Japanese equities to record highs, while government bonds and the yen have faced pressure.

US officials quickly weighed in on the result, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling the victory “historic” and emphasizing the strength of US-Japan relations under Takaichi’s leadership.

Days before, President Donald Trump also offered a full endorsement, highlighting her leadership qualities and recent trade and security successes.

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In turn, Takaichi expressed gratitude, reaffirming plans to visit the White House in spring 2026 and describing the US-Japan alliance as having “unlimited potential” built on deep trust and cooperation.

Takaichi’s Mandate Signals Potential Crypto Tax Overhaul and Blockchain-Friendly Policies

Takaichi’s electoral mandate is widely seen as a green light to accelerate Japan’s crypto reforms. The country currently taxes crypto gains as miscellaneous income at rates up to 55%.

This framework has driven some investors abroad despite Japan’s leading position in blockchain adoption.

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Under discussion for fiscal year 2026 are reforms that could:

• Reduce gains tax to around 20%
• Allow loss carryforwards for three years, and
  Reclassify certain digital assets as financial products.

The general sentiment is that her pro-growth policies and willingness to collaborate with crypto-friendly opposition parties, such as the Japan Innovation Party and the Democratic Party for the People, could finally push these long-awaited measures through by 2028.

Earlier in her tenure, Takaichi endorsed policies supporting technology, innovation, and economic security, aligning with broader blockchain and Web3 development.

While she has not made crypto a central campaign issue, her aggressive fiscal stance, modeled after her mentor Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics,” could create an economic environment that favors risk assets, including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Japan-related digital projects.

“Takaichi has pledged aggressive fiscal policy funded largely through bond issuance…will her electoral momentum fuel even larger stimulus, or give her the political cover to proceed more cautiously, as investors remain uneasy over Japan’s massive debt load and recent spikes across the JGB yield curve,” posed Rob Wallace.

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Indeed, uncertainties remain. Japan’s national debt exceeds 250% of GDP after topping out at 232.35% in 2025. Meanwhile, recent spikes in government bond yields have raised investor concerns about fiscal sustainability.

Key cabinet appointments and regulatory priorities will be critical in shaping the pace and scope of crypto reform. Finance Minister Katsunobu Kato’s continued role could maintain policy continuity, though his limited engagement on crypto issues may temper ambitious changes.

Digital Minister Masaki Taira has yet to articulate specific positions on crypto or Web3.

Nevertheless, the Financial Services Agency’s ongoing proposals, combined with Takaichi’s strong political mandate, suggest a turning point for Japan’s digital asset sector.

If successful, reforms could provide clearer regulatory frameworks, tax relief, and legal recognition for crypto, laying the groundwork for a more innovation-friendly ecosystem.

The Seoul court handed crypto asset manager prison sentence in the first case under the new Virtual Asset User Protection Act.

A South Korean court has sentenced Jong-hwan Lee, CEO of a local crypto asset management firm, to three years in prison for manipulating cryptocurrency prices to secure illicit profits.

The Seoul Southern District Court ruled on Wednesday that Lee violated the Virtual Asset User Protection Act, earning approximately 7.1 billion Korean won (which is worth around $4.88 million) through price manipulation.

Court Findings

In addition to the prison term, the court imposed a fine of 500 million won, nearly $344,000, and ordered the forfeiture of around 846 million won, or $581,900 in criminal proceeds. However, Lee was not taken into custody during the court proceedings, as the judges cited his good behavior throughout the trial.

The court found that between July 22 and October 25, 2024, Lee employed an automated trading program to inflate trading volumes and repeatedly place wash trades in the ACE cryptocurrency. Investigators reported that the daily trading volume of ACE jumped from roughly 160,000 units to 2.45 million units overnight, and Lee was responsible for 89% of the activity.

Min-cheol Kang, a former employee of the firm also indicted in the case, received a two-year prison sentence with three years of probation. While the court confirmed the defendants’ involvement in manipulating ACE for unfair profits, it partially acquitted them regarding the exact 7.1 billion won figure due to insufficient evidence.

Interestingly, this case is the first enforcement under South Korea’s Virtual Asset User Protection Act, which came into effect in July 2024.

South Korea Crypto Mishap

As courts move to punish crypto market abuse, other branches of the legal system are grappling with the risks tied to handling digital assets. In January, South Korean prosecutors were investigating the disappearance of a large amount of Bitcoin that had been seized and stored as part of a criminal case.

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The issue was discovered during a routine internal inspection at the Gwangju District Prosecutors’ Office, where officials check access details for confiscated assets, including credentials stored on removable devices like USB drives. While authorities have not confirmed the exact amount lost, local media estimates the missing Bitcoin could be worth around 70 billion won, or roughly $47.7 million.

According to officials cited in local reports, the loss may have occurred after an agency worker accessed a fraudulent website, which raised suspicion of a phishing attack rather than a direct breach of government systems. It is believed that wallet passwords or access credentials may have been exposed, allowing attackers to drain the seized funds.

Google worldwide search volume for “crypto” is hovering near a one-year low as investor sentiment cools amid a broad market downturn that has trimmed the crypto market’s total capitalization from a peak above $4.2 trillion to roughly $2.4 trillion. The global Google Trends reading for crypto sits at 30 out of 100, with the 12-month high of 100 last reached in August 2025 when market fervor and valuations were at their peak. In the United States, the pattern mirrors the wider trend but with its own rhythm: after a July high of 100, US search interest dipped below 37 in January and then rebounded to 56 in the first week of February. Taken together, these metrics paint a cautious mood among retail and institutional participants alike.

Google search data has long been used by market observers as a proxy for investor interest and potential turning points, aligning with sentiment gauges such as the Crypto Fear & Greed Index. As liquidity has cooled and volatility has persisted, traders and long-term holders have faced a challenging environment where on-chain activity and capital flows tighten alongside waning enthusiasm for risk-on bets in the crypto space. The juxtaposition of dwindling searches with continuing headlines about market stress underscores a market that remains sensitive to macro headlines, policy signals, and evolving risk appetites.

Google search data is often used as a gauge of investor sentiment and corroborates other indicators that track crowd psychology across the crypto market. As the broader market contends with macro headwinds, retail chatter and social signals continue to reflect a cautious stance, even as some pockets of volatility persist.

Investor sentiment craters as Fear & Greed Index hits record lows

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index plunged to a record low of 5 on Thursday, before ticking up to 8 by Sunday, according to CoinMarketCap. Both readings sit in the “extreme fear” territory, signaling widespread risk aversion among market participants. The latest readings echo sentiment conditions observed during past downturns, including periods that followed the Terra ecosystem collapse and the associated de-pegging event in 2022. CoinMarketCap notes that extreme fear can coexist with abrupt bursts of selling pressure, creating environments where short squeezes and liquidity gaps become more pronounced.

In broader terms, sentiment has moved in lockstep with price action and liquidity constraints. The market’s mood now resembles the climate seen after the Terra collapse, when contagion fears and leverage-induced liquidations amplified downside pressure. The Terra incident, which destabilized the Terra ecosystem and its dollar-pegged stablecoin, remains a reference point for how quickly confidence can erode in a highly correlated sector. The event set in motion cascading liquidations that helped accelerate a protracted bear phase in 2022, a period that many participants say still informs risk management and portfolio construction today.

The dialogue around sentiment is also fed by data-driven signals from analysts tracking social conversations and on-chain indicators. Santiment has highlighted a sharp decline in positive versus negative commentary, with crowd sentiment skewing heavily negative as traders search for a bottom to time their entries. While some investors seek capitulation points as an opportunity to accumulate, others remain wary of premature bets in an environment where liquidity can tighten quickly and price swings remain pronounced.

The broader mood is reinforced by market structure data: daily aggregate crypto trading volume has fallen markedly from a high near $153 billion on Jan. 14 to around $87.5 billion most recently, underscoring the retreat in participation and the challenge of sustaining momentum in a risk-off regime. These shifts in activity, combined with sentiment indicators, paint a picture of a market that remains fragile and sensitive to macro catalysts and policy developments. Investors are paying closer attention to how institutions and retail players reposition their risk budgets in the face of ongoing volatility and mixed fundamentals.

Why it matters

At a fundamental level, the convergence of weak search interest, suppressed trading volumes, and extreme fear in sentiment indices matters for participants across the crypto ecosystem. For traders, the current environment reinforces the importance of risk controls, liquidity considerations, and disciplined position sizing, given the potential for rapid shifts if macro catalysts improve or if liquidity flows reaccelerate. For builders and developers, the mood underscores the need for clarity around use cases, real-world utility, and user acquisition strategies that can drive sustained engagement even when markets are challenged.

From a retail vantage point, the data suggest that casual interest is not being replaced by immediate price upside; rather, attention remains episodic, with bursts around major headlines and then a reversion to the mean. This dynamic can affect onboarding curves for new users and the cadence of education and tooling that platforms rely on to convert curiosity into participation. Meanwhile, for institutions, the subdued atmosphere might translate into more selective allocations, tighter diligence, and a wait-and-see posture as they gauge how the regulatory and macro landscapes unfold in the coming quarters.

The Terra episode remains a salient reminder of how quickly sentiment can flip when confidence erodes and liquidity drains. In such environments, risk models that emphasize stress-testing, collateral management, and scenario planning can be more valuable than outright exposure bets. Investors should remain mindful of the connections between search behavior, sentiment, and price action, recognizing that public interest can act as a leading indicator of potential market inflection—but not a reliable predictor on its own.

What to watch next

• Continuing Google Trends updates on crypto search interest (worldwide and US) to spot any turning points in public curiosity.
• Monitoring the Crypto Fear & Greed Index and related sentiment metrics on CoinMarketCap and comparable aggregators.
• Observing developments around Terra’s ecosystem and the future trajectory of LUNA, as well as any regulatory or governance signals affecting stablecoins and cross-chain liquidity.
• Watching liquidity dynamics and macro flows, including ETF-related product activity and institutional risk appetites, to gauge potential shifts in market participation.

Sources & verification

• Google Trends data for Crypto worldwide and US searches (Google Trends links in the article).
• CoinMarketCap Fear & Greed Index page for sentiment data.
• CoinMarketCap charts page for market volume trends.
• Terra ecosystem collapse coverage and its impact on market psychology and liquidity (2022 references cited in the article).
• Santiment research and weekly summaries on crowd sentiment and social signals.

Market reaction and key details

What the data collectively suggest is a crypto market that remains highly sensitive to macro dynamics, liquidity conditions, and high-profile narrative events. The decline from a peak market cap above $4.2 trillion to roughly $2.4 trillion reflects not only price moves but also a broad retrenchment in risk appetite and a retreat by weaker hands who fueled the late-2021 to mid-2025 hype cycle. The rebound in US search interest in early February indicates that public attention can snap back, but whether that translates into durable capital inflows remains uncertain. As one anchor of the ecosystem, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) continues to lead price discovery, even as broader market participation ebbs and flows in response to evolving fundamentals and sentiment.

Terra’s collapse and the subsequent liquidity shock provided a stark reminder of how correlated risk exposures can be, particularly when leverage is high and confidence deteriorates. The reverberations from that event still inform risk controls, governance discussions, and the pace at which new products attempt to attract capital in a cautious environment. In the near term, the market will likely hinge on macro signals, regulatory clarity, and the interplay between sentiment indicators and actual on-chain activity.

Why it matters (expanded)

For users and investors, the current climate underscores the importance of diversification, prudent risk management, and clear investment objectives. It also highlights the value of staying informed through reliable data sources and avoiding overreliance on short-term sentiment alone. For builders in the space, the message is to emphasize tangible use cases, security, and user-friendly tooling that can withstand periods of market stress. For the market as a whole, the ongoing scrutiny around liquidity, regulatory development, and institutional participation will shape the trajectory of adoption and the resilience of the sector to shocks.

Ultimately, the story is one of a maturing market that continues to wrestle with volatility, narrative risk, and the pace of innovation. As investors weigh risk-adjusted returns in a downbeat environment, the data offer a sober reminder: interest can surface quickly, but sustained participation requires credibility, resilience, and real-world utility that transcends cycles.

What to watch next

• Weekly updates on Google Trends for crypto and related terms to identify shifts in public interest.
• Monitoring the Fear & Greed Index for potential signals that market psychology is shifting toward a more constructive phase.
• Tracking Terra-related developments and the performance of its associated assets, including governance updates and liquidity restoration efforts.

Sources & verification

TLDR:

• Bitmine added 42,000 ETH in one week, reflecting sustained accumulation during heightened market volatility
• The latest 20,000 ETH purchase occurred near market lows, signaling strategic timing rather than reactive buying
• Staking remains central to Bitmine’s model, with projected annual rewards tied to validator expansion plans
• Bitmine equity trades below NAV despite rising ETH holdings and improving Ethereum network activity.

Bitmine Ethereum accumulation has gained attention as the firm increased exposure during a broader crypto market downturn.

The move reflects a disciplined strategy centered on long-term fundamentals, staking income, and balance sheet growth rather than short-term price action.

Bitmine Ethereum Accumulation Confirms Sustained Buying and Strategic Timing

Bitmine Ethereum accumulation accelerated during a period of sharp selling across digital asset markets. On-chain data showed the firm acquired 20,000 ETH from a Kraken hot wallet during heightened volatility.

The purchase, valued at approximately $41.98 million, occurred without public statements or coordinated messaging. Market participants identified the transfer after wallet activity was shared on X.

According to Lookonchain data cited in those posts, the transaction took place within hours of the broader market downturn. The timing suggested planned accumulation rather than reactive buying.

Over the same week, Bitmine added roughly 42,000 ETH in total. Holdings now approach 4.17 million ETH, reflecting consistent balance sheet expansion.

Charts shared across social platforms showed steady increases in ETH balances. There were no visible distribution patterns or abrupt reductions in holdings.

Liquidity during the period remained thin, with forced sellers present across major venues. Such conditions often allow long-term participants to accumulate supplies efficiently.

Bitmine’s approach aligned with historical institutional behavior during prior market drawdowns. Accumulation occurred quietly while sentiment remained cautious.

The absence of hedging activity reinforced the view that ETH was treated as a strategic reserve asset. Price volatility appeared secondary to position sizing.

Staking Strategy and Valuation Context Shape Bitmine Positioning

Bitmine Ethereum accumulation is closely linked to its staking-focused operating model. The firm emphasizes yield generation to reduce idle asset risk during price weakness.

Chairman Tom Lee stated that stakeholder income could reach $374 million annually. This projection depends on full deployment of the Made in America Validator Network in 2026.

Staked ETH provides recurring revenue regardless of short-term price movement. Validator participation also supports Ethereum network security and decentralization.

Ethereum network metrics continue to show resilience. Daily transactions recently reached 2.5 million, while active addresses climbed to one million.

Lee referred to the recent pullback as an attractive entry point during remarks shared on X. He cited growing validator participation and steady network usage.

Bitmine’s equity valuation presents an additional layer. Shares recently traded near $20.44, below the reported NAV per share of $21.25.

This places the stock at approximately 0.96 times MNAV. The discount suggests the market values Bitmine’s ETH holdings below spot value.

ETH rebounded to around $2,123, gaining nearly three percent intraday. However, Bitmine’s equity closed slightly lower, reflecting ongoing caution.

As volatility stabilizes, balance sheet growth, stakeholder income, and network fundamentals remain central to Bitmine’s positioning.

CoinDesk is hosting its second annual Consensus Hong Kong conference, and as always, we’ll have a number of policy-focused sessions. Are you in town? Find me on stage or around the show floor and say hi!

You’re reading State of Crypto, a CoinDesk newsletter looking at the intersection of cryptocurrency and government. Click here to sign up for future editions.

The narrative

CoinDesk’s annual Consensus Hong Kong conference will kick off this Wednesday with a speech from Hong Kong Chief Executive John KC Lee.

Why it matters

Hong Kong is playing an interesting role in the intersection of financial services between the global East and West. CoinDesk will be exploring that role at Consensus,

Breaking it down

We’ll be hearing from Financial Secretary Paul Chan and Securities and Futures Commission Chief Executive Julia Leung on day one of Consensus, and having conversations around the growth of real-world asset tokenization, stablecoins and evolving payment systems and how exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

Our speakers will include regulators and politicians from around the world, with panels looking at how both regulators and industry participants alike approach the sector — a conversation we’ve had every year at Consensus, but one that continues to evolve.

Privacy, artificial intelligence, decentralized finance and trading behaviors will also take one of the many stages throughout the conference.

It’ll be part of a busy week ahead: SEC Chair Paul Atkins will be testifying before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees. Though the hearings are focused on SEC oversight generally, expect crypto and Atkins’ efforts to develop rulemakings around the sector to come up.

The White House is also convening yet another meeting between crypto and banking industry representatives. Not a lot of detail is available yet.

Tuesday

• The White House is convening a second meeting between representatives of the crypto and banking industries to discuss stablecoin yield concerns.

Wednesday

• 01:30 UTC (9:30 a.m. HKT) Day 1 of Consensus Hong Kong kicks off.
• 15:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. ET) The House Financial Services Committee is holding an oversight hearing with Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins.

Thursday

• 02:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. HKT) Day 2 of Consensus Hong Kong kicks off.
• 15:00 UTC (10:00 a.m. ET) The Senate Banking Committee is holding an oversight hearing with Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins.

If you’ve got thoughts or questions on what I should discuss next week or any other feedback you’d like to share, feel free to email me at [email protected] or find me on Bluesky @nikhileshde.bsky.social.

You can also join the group conversation on Telegram.

See ya’ll next week!

Google worldwide search volume for “crypto” is hovering near one-year lows, reflecting weak investor sentiment amid a broad market downturn that reduced the total market capitalization of crypto from an all-time high of more than $4.2 trillion to about $2.4 trillion.

Worldwide search volume for “crypto” is 30 out of 100 at the time of this writing, with a reading of 100 indicating the highest level of search interest, which was last reached in August 2025 in parallel with the market capitalization high. The 12-month low is 24, according to Google Trends data. 

Search volume in the US featured a similar pattern, with volume peaking at 100 in July and dropping to below 37 in January. However, US search figures diverged from worldwide volume data by surging back up to 56 in the first week of February. 

The yearly low for the US is 32, which was recorded during the April 2025 market crash fueled by US President Donald Trump’s tariff policies.

Crypto market volume is down sharply, with total market volume dropping from a high of more than $153 billion on Jan. 14 to about $87.5 billion on Sunday, according to CoinMarketCap.

Google search volume data is often used as a gauge of investor sentiment and corroborates other sentiment indicators like the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a market indicator used to measure crowd sentiment.

Related: Google search volume for ‘Bitcoin’ skyrockets amid BTC price swings

Investor sentiment craters as Fear & Greed Index hits record lows

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit a record low of 5 on Thursday, but inched up to 8 by Sunday, according to CoinMarketCap. Still, both levels signal “extreme fear” in the markets.

Crypto investor sentiment is now at the same levels it was following the collapse of the Terra ecosystem and its dollar-pegged stablecoin in 2022.

The collapse of Terra sent shockwaves through the crypto world, triggering a wave of cascading liquidations that accelerated the 2022 bear market.

Investors are currently searching for social signals that the crypto market has bottomed to time their entries, according to market sentiment analysis platform Santiment.

“Crowd sentiment is fiercely bearish. The ratio of positive to negative commentary has collapsed, with negative comments hitting their highest point since December 1st,” Santiment said in a report published Friday.

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