Crypto World
Bitcoin Eyes Iran Reactions as Oil Triggers 5% US Inflation Forecast
Bitcoin held a steady line through a weekend marked by geopolitical flare-ups in the Middle East, easing some of the stress that had rippled through risk assets. The benchmark cryptocurrency kept its bearings around the mid-to-high $60,000s as traders weighed potential supply disruptions, oil price volatility, and the staying power of traditional markets. While the narrative around the Strait of Hormuz and regional tensions added a geopolitical layer to the narrative, Bitcoin and broader crypto markets avoided a sudden breakout, instead trading in a relatively tight corridor as weekend liquidity faded and futures markets prepared for the Monday open.
Key takeaways
- Bitcoin started the week near $67,000 after a volatile weekend, with traders watching how U.S. markets would react to ongoing regional tensions.
- Trading data pointed to a lingering focus on a notable CME futures gap at $65,880, a potential “fill” area that could influence short-term moves.
- Oil-price risk rose as Tehran signaled actions around the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns about inflationary pressures and their potential impact on risk sentiment.
- Analysts offered mixed views: some described the initial response as positive, while others warned that the market could drift until macro catalysts clear, including the U.S. opening and inflation data.
- The crowd of strategists and traders continues to eye a possible relief rally if Bitcoin can reclaim momentum above critical moving-average levels and push toward the high-$70,000s range.
Tickers mentioned: $BTC
Sentiment: Neutral
Price impact: Neutral. Price action remained range-bound despite regional tensions and a looming data calendar.
Trading idea (Not Financial Advice): Hold. Monitor the Monday open and the CME gap as liquidity returns to the market.
Market context: The weekend period saw traditional markets digesting geopolitical headlines as traders awaited U.S. opening dynamics and inflation-related data. Early signs showed U.S. stock futures down roughly 0.65% as traders braced for potential volatility once liquidity returned to normal levels, underscoring a cautious risk-on environment for crypto assets as well.
Why it matters
Bitcoin’s behavior in the wake of regional turmoil underscores how the asset class often behaves as a macro sponge—quick to absorb risk-off impulses and slower to trend during periods of mixed signals. The tension around the Strait of Hormuz and the broader Middle East flare-up adds a persistent inflationary lens to the discussion. Oil markets, which frequently respond to geopolitical headlines, can—by extension—spark concerns about energy costs feeding into consumer prices. A notable moment referenced by market observers is the potential for inflation to surprise to the upside, a scenario some analysts say could lift traditional hedges or drive risk assets into a different regime.
On the technical front, traders highlighted Bitcoin’s proximity to a key moving-average level as a potential fulcrum. The 21-day simple moving average, an often-watchful gauge for short- to mid-term momentum, sat near a critical threshold that, if breached, could accelerate a relief rally. Observers like Michaël van de Poppe framed the setup in a nuanced way, noting that while the initial reaction to weekend events looked “positive,” markets needed to clear the CME gap and establish a higher low before committing to a sustained move higher. This view aligns with a broader narrative that price action over the next few sessions could depend as much on opening prints in the United States as on any headline flow from abroad.
“On the other hand, the 21-Day MA needs to break in order to have a relief rally. I think we’ll see it in March/April, question of how we’re opening the markets tomorrow and whether it finds a higher low.”
Data from TradingView tracked BTC/USD action as traders focused on the $67,000 region after the weekend’s headlines, painting a picture of a market waiting for a catalyst to push beyond a short-term ceiling. The absence of a decisive breakout did not surprise all participants, given the complexity of the macro backdrop and the potential for a “gap fill” scenario as futures markets settle into Monday’s session. A number of technicians agreed that a break above the immediate resistance zone could set the stage for a move toward the $73,000–$74,000 zone, underscoring how volatile macro drivers can unfold into a structured technical chase for price targets in the near term.
Beyond the chart, the weekend narrative included other voices pointing to why a breakout could be delayed. Some market participants argued that geopolitical risk had already been priced in to an extent, with the market absorbing headlines and awaiting a clearer signal from U.S. policy and data releases. Crypto traders—who often weigh cross-asset correlations—emphasized that the next few sessions would likely hinge on how traditional markets respond when liquidity returns and whether risk appetite recovers or remains cautious. “We will probably move sideways in the next days,” reasoned another active trader, highlighting the ongoing balance between geopolitical risk and macro resilience.
The macro overlay extended to inflation concerns. The Kobeissi Letter’s thread, drawing on JPMorgan research, suggested the possibility of a fresh inflation spike that could push the U.S. Consumer Price Index higher—potentially around 5%—a development that would feed into both equity and crypto dynamics. This thread arrived in the context of recent U.S. inflation prints that had already surprised to the upside, notably with the latest Producer Price Index data underscoring that the floor for inflation might be sticky rather than easily transitory. In parallel, market observers referenced Bitcoin’s historical dynamics—such as metrics that point to elevated longer-horizon returns in certain cycles—to anchor expectations for how BTC might respond as macro conditions evolve. A related discussion on a widely cited price metric is available in a Cointelegraph piece that linked to a longer-term pattern, illustrating how historically prolonged uptrends have unfolded in response to regime changes in inflation and liquidity.
As the weekend wound down, a chorus of voices underscored the nuances of the setup. Crypto influencers and traders reminded audiences that headlines alone rarely deliver a sustained move; instead, the probability of a meaningful rebound depends on the confluence of technical breakouts, macro data, and the opening tone of U.S. markets. The crosswinds—from geopolitical tensions to inflation risk—mean Bitcoin’s path may be less about a single trigger and more about a sequence of catalysts aligning in the weeks ahead.
What to watch next
- Monday open: observe whether U.S. equities’ early direction validates or contradicts the weekend narrative, particularly as the CME gap at 65,880 remains a potential target for a fill.
- BTC price action around 67,000: monitor if the asset can hold this level or accelerate toward the upper target near 73,000–74,000 based on momentum signals and moving-average dynamics.
- Oil and inflation linkage: track oil price movements and any fresh inflation data releases that could reframe risk sentiment and liquidity expectations.
- Futures and liquidity cycles: pay attention to how liquidity returns in the coming days and whether any new macro surprises push risk assets into a fresh regime.
- Geopolitical headlines: continue to monitor developments around the Strait of Hormuz and broader regional tensions, as these could reintroduce volatility into risk assets and affect hedges like BTC.
Sources & verification
- Trading view data showing BTC price activity around $67,000 after the latest Middle East events (TradingView).
- Discussion and charts cited by Michaël van de Poppe on X about the 21-day moving average and potential resistance turned support levels.
- Market commentary on the CME futures gap at $65,880 and its potential relevance to near-term price action.
- References to inflation risk and CPI considerations from JPMorgan-linked discussions in the Kobeissi Letter thread (KobeissiLetter).
- Cointelegraph coverage linking to inflation data and the broader macro narrative surrounding Bitcoin’s historical performance in higher-inflation regimes (Cointelegraph).
- Bitcoin historical price metric references and longer-term return discussions (Bitcoin historical price metric …).
- Direct posts from market participants on X offering perspectives on near-term price trajectories (Michaël van de Poppe, BitBull, Crypto Caesar).
Bitcoin steadies as geopolitical tensions test risk appetite
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) threshold dynamics dominated the narrative as regional headlines intersected with macro data expectations. The asset’s late-week price action found support near the $67,000 level, consistent with a broad risk-off-to-risk-on tug-of-war that markets have navigated throughout the weekend. While some participants argued that a relief rally could unfold if momentum gathers and key moving-average levels break, others emphasized the need for a clear bullish trigger—one that could come from a favorable Monday open or a cooling of inflation concerns. The combination of a cautious open from U.S. equities and a disciplined approach to risk deployment shaped the tone for the early week, with traders eyeing a potential test of the CME gap and a move toward higher targets if liquidity and sentiment cooperate.
Trading data pointed to ongoing technical work in BTC’s near-term chart. The 21-day moving average, a key reference for many short-term traders, sits at a level that many watch as a potential springboard for momentum. As one veteran analyst noted, decisive action above that threshold could catalyze a more pronounced move, while a failure to gain traction could prolong a consolidative phase. In parallel, market observers highlighted the role of the CME’s futures market in shaping intraday risk, with the gap below the current price acting as a potential magnet for price action if markets shift into risk-on mode.
The macro backdrop—particularly inflation dynamics and energy-price volatility—adds a layer of complexity to Bitcoin’s trajectory. The Strait of Hormuz could become a focal point for oil markets, and any supply concerns tend to reverberate through inflation expectations and risk sentiment. Analysts who have studied post-crisis price cycles note that inflation shocks can align with crypto cycles in nuanced ways: liquidity remains a critical piece, but the direction of flow—whether into crypto as a hedge or as an alt-risk asset—depends on how investors digest the evolving macro picture. In this context, Bitcoin’s price range-bound behavior over the weekend can be seen as a reflection of a market seeking a credible catalyst rather than chasing headlines.
As market participants refine their models for the week ahead, the broader takeaway is that Bitcoin’s near-term path will hinge on a confluence of factors: a measured Monday opening, the pace at which the CME gap closes, and any renewed guidance from inflation and energy data. The dynamics suggest a market that might remain cautious until a clearer signal coalesces, even as some voices project a path toward the $73,000–$74,000 zone should momentum swing in BTC’s favor. The coming days will reveal whether the technical setup can convert into a sustained trend or whether traders revert to a wait-and-see posture in response to macro uncertainty.
European banks and corporates are moving from research to rollout in the stablecoin market.
Summary
- European banks and corporates are now choosing stablecoin partners instead of only studying the market opportunity.
- MiCA gave firms one rulebook, helping stablecoin projects move faster from planning to execution stages.
- Corporate treasury demand is pushing stablecoin use for payments, settlement, and cross-border fund movement today.
New comments from industry executives show that firms are now choosing partners and preparing live use cases under MiCA rules.
Lamine Brahimi, co-founder and managing partner at Taurus, said stablecoin talks in Europe have changed over the past 18 months. Earlier discussions focused on education, risk, and compliance, but firms are now moving with board approval and launch plans.
He told Cointelegraph MiCA helped speed up that shift by replacing separate national rules with one framework across the region. Brahimi said some of Europe’s toughest financial institutions now see digital assets and stablecoins as part of the current banking stack, not something outside it.
Corporate treasury demand shapes use cases
Corporate treasury teams are driving much of the new stablecoin demand in Europe. Companies want faster fund movement, lower payment costs, and access to settlement outside normal banking hours.
Brahimi said the shift now comes from direct client needs rather than long-range planning. He said that when clients ask for better settlement and smoother cross-border transfers, the discussion becomes more immediate and practical.
Several European institutions have already moved ahead with stablecoin plans. ClearBank Europe said it became the first Dutch credit institution approved under MiCA to operate as a crypto asset service provider.
Other groups are also building new products. A consortium that includes ING, UniCredit, CaixaBank, and BBVA is working on Qivalis, a euro stablecoin project for regulated onchain payments and settlement, while other banks are preparing Swiss-franc and euro stablecoin offerings for 2026.
Data shows stronger business interest
Konstantin Vasilenko, co-founder and chief business development officer at Paybis, said the platform recorded sharp growth in EU stablecoin use. Between October 2025 and March 2026, USDC volume in the EU rose about 109%, while its share of stablecoin activity increased from about 13% to 32%.
He also said buy volume stayed about five to six times above sell volume during that period. Average stablecoin transactions were also larger than typical Bitcoin or Ether trades, which he said points to working capital, settlement use, and more deliberate business flows.
Bitcoin’s fifth halving is roughly two years away, and the mining sector is heading into it with far less margin for error than in 2024, as higher costs, tighter energy markets and clearer regulation reshape the industry.
At the last halving in April 2024, Bitcoin (BTC) traded at around $63,000 as rewards fell from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC per block, according to Coingecko. In April 2028, at the next halving, miners face higher input costs for half the new coins, as rewards drop to 1.5625 BTC. That looks tougher in a world of record hashrate, higher energy prices and more selective capital.
Energy security has also become a strategic concern after geopolitical shocks jolted fuel and power markets, while regulators from Washington to Europe move from ad-hoc guidance to formal regimes for custody and licensed institutional platforms.
Those pressures are forcing miners to behave less like pure Bitcoin proxies and more like energy and infrastructure companies, monetizing reserves, cutting costs and rethinking capital allocation ahead of the April 2028 Halving.
The shift is also changing how investors assess the sector, with capital increasingly flowing toward operators that can secure long-term power and build infrastructure that extends beyond mining alone.
Balance sheets show tougher pre-halving cycle
Miners are already adjusting. MARA Holdings sold more than 15,000 Bitcoin in March to reduce leverage, Riot Platforms sold over 3,700 BTC in the first quarter, Cango sold 2,000 BTC to pay down Bitcoin-backed debt, and Bitdeer said its Bitcoin holdings had fallen to zero as of Feb. 20.
Behind those sales is a broader reset in how miners think about hardware, power and capital. The 2028 halving arrives in “an environment that looks almost nothing like 2024,” Juliet Ye, head of communications at Cango, told Cointelegraph.
She pointed to a widening efficiency gap that is “forcing real decisions around fleet upgrades” and a shift toward long-term energy contracts across multiple regions rather than chasing cheaper tariffs.
“There is less room in the middle now,” she said. “Operators with scale and diversification will be fine. Those without will find the next halving very difficult.”
GoMining struck a similar note. CEO Mark Zalan told Cointelegraph that “capital discipline now matters more than hashrate maximalism” and that new deployments now have to clear tougher return thresholds.
Related: Mining companies move deeper into AI, HPC as MARA may sell Bitcoin
From a mining pool’s perspective, some of the underlying dynamics remain familiar even as the pressure grows. “There is actually very little fundamental difference between this mining cycle and previous ones,” Alejandro de la Torre, co-founder and CEO of Stratum V2 pool DMND, told Cointelegraph. “The same dynamics repeat.”
He expects mining hotspots to reach their peak, then realign, as “no region keeps dominance for long,” opening the door for more decentralization as mid-size miners expand into new energy partnerships.
Related: Genius Group liquidates Bitcoin treasury to pay $8.5M of debt
Business models shift beyond pure block rewards
The economics around the next halving are also shifting away from pure block rewards, which is a “thinner business than it used to be,” Zalan said. He predicted stronger operators will look closer to power and data center businesses, and earn additional revenue through curtailment, grid services and heat reuse.
Cango is already building toward that model. “The facilities that will matter in five years are the ones that can do more than one thing,” Ye said, using mining to fill capacity while positioning sites to toggle between AI workloads and hashpower.
Regulation, once viewed mainly as an overhang, is increasingly part of the investment case. Zalan pointed to more specific rules on custody and banking access in the United States, alongside the European Union’s Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) regime and new exchange-traded funds (ETFs), derivatives and settlement rails out of Hong Kong, arguing “capital moves faster when those rules are clear and usable.”
Zalan said that backdrop is shaping both how miners finance themselves and how institutions position for the next issuance cut. He said he does not believe the market has “fully priced the next halving,” arguing that scarcity will meet a “much stronger ecosystem around Bitcoin by the time 2028 arrives.”
Ye sees investors already re-rating miners that lock in high-performance compute contracts, with those operators trading at “more than double the revenue multiple of pure-play miners,” while de la Torre believes supporting large established operators is “no longer the only logical path.”
If the 2024 cycle rewarded miners that rode Bitcoin’s price strength, the run into 2028 may favor operators that can manage debt, lock in power and build infrastructure that earns beyond block subsidies.
Magazine: AI agents will kill the web as we know it: Animoca’s Yat Siu
Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, characterizes the current market environment as “another wild ride,” where each week seems to deliver headlines stranger than the last.
Yet despite the volatility, his overarching message is that conditions are not nearly as dire as they might appear, and he remains relatively constructive on the outlook for markets.
Timmer argues that markets, broadly speaking, are “pricing in some form of resolution” to the current geopolitical tensions, particularly around Iran, “sooner rather than later,” he told CoinDesk in an interview.
Oil ‘backwardation’
While crude prices surged above $100 a barrel, the futures curve remains in backwardation, with contracts further out trading roughly $40 below the front month. That structure signals that markets view the current supply disruption as a short-term bottleneck rather than a prolonged crisis, according to Timmer.
Elsewhere, market behavior reinforces this cautiously optimistic view. The S&P 500, which at one point was down about 9%, has recovered to a drawdown closer to 1%.
Credit spreads remain contained, suggesting that systemic stress is limited. Even in traditionally defensive assets, the signals are nuanced. Gold and bonds, which are typically less correlated, have been moving together more closely, a dynamic Timmer attributes in part to global capital flows.
Countries facing constraints in moving energy through the Strait of Hormuz, he notes, may be raising liquidity by selling highly liquid assets such as gold and U.S. Treasuries, creating unusual correlations.
The crypto market got a much-needed lift Tuesday after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil prices plunged more than 17% on the news and equity markets also gained. WTI has since bounced back to trade around $100.
Bitcoin’s $65,000 support
Bitcoin adds another layer to this shifting landscape, behaving more like gold, while gold has, at times, traded with characteristics more akin to BTC.
When bitcoin reached $126,000 last October, fast-moving capital rotated out of crypto and into gold, a shift visible in exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows. Now, however, with bitcoin already down 50–60% from its peak, Timmer sees fewer “paper hands” left in the market.
Selling pressure has largely been absorbed, while gold, after a strong run, appears more vulnerable to a pullback. Despite this, he remains bullish on both assets. Bitcoin, in particular, looks technically interesting to him, with the $65,000 level acting as solid support.
He sees the potential for a base to form, though he emphasizes that a catalyst will be needed to drive the next leg higher.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency was trading in the low $70,000s at the time of publication.
‘Priced for success’
Timmer believes equities are effectively priced for success, with only single-digit drawdowns despite significant geopolitical uncertainty. A key reason, he argues, is the strength of corporate earnings.
Importantly, Timmer points out that the broader backdrop before the Iran conflict was already constructive. The U.S. Supreme Court’s rollback of tariffs had improved the policy environment, and fears of an AI-driven market bubble had not materialized. In fact, he sees investor skepticism, particularly toward AI and software valuations, as a healthy sign. In a true bubble, investors stop asking hard questions; today, they are doing the opposite. That scrutiny, in his view, has helped prevent the market from overshooting.
Still, the situation in the Middle East remains fluid, and the range of possible outcomes is wide. A worst-case scenario, in which Iran escalates by targeting energy infrastructure across the Gulf, could be highly destabilizing. With roughly 20% of global oil supply passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a prolonged disruption could lead to a stagflationary shock, combining elevated inflation with weaker growth.
Timmer nevertheless believes markets have developed a more measured response to geopolitical shocks. After a series of “false alarms,” including last year’s tariff-related selloff, which saw the S&P 500 drop 21% from its highs, investors are less prone to panic. There is now a “show-me” attitude, where weak hands are less easily shaken out.
This backdrop remains constructive, Timmer argues, supported by what he describes as a strong mid-cycle economic expansion. However, he highlights several risks that investors should actively manage.
One is concentration risk, particularly in the so-called “Magnificent Seven” technology stocks. Interest rate risk is another key concern. The 10-year Treasury yield is approaching 4.5% and could move toward 5%, a development that has occurred even amid geopolitical uncertainty. Rising yields, rather than falling, are an important signal that investors should monitor closely.
The real risk
Ultimately, Timmer frames periods of volatility not just as challenges but as opportunities. He encourages investors to act as providers of liquidity rather than takers. Those who panic during turbulent periods become price takers, while disciplined investors with long-term perspectives can step in as price makers. At Fidelity, he notes, this means leaning into volatility, providing liquidity, and rebalancing portfolios when others are retreating.
While acknowledging that geopolitical events are inherently unpredictable, Timmer emphasizes that remaining on the sidelines out of fear is not a viable strategy. Instead, a well-diversified portfolio, combined with a willingness to engage during periods of stress, can offer the best path forward.
Read more: Oil shock, Iran war risk keep crypto investors on sidelines: Grayscale
The Narrative of Questions around Investment
Xu said that Zhao frequently revisits the tale of selling property to amass Bitcoin, but there are important details that remain vague.
He also doubted whether this property belonged to Zhao or how it was initially financed.
Zhao had previously clarified that he sold an apartment at an approximate price of 900,000 and used the money to purchase Bitcoin at an average price of 600.
Therefore, Xu’s statements question the accuracy of the account but introduce a new challenge to the chronology.
The Conflict over Personal Life
The conflict spread beyond investment claims, with Xu mentioning Zhao’s personal life, including his divorce.
Xu proposed that Zhao might have provided biased information as he crafted a social identity for his financial choices.
Zhao replied by confirming that he had divorced and that he would not disclose legal documents to respect privacy.
He further insisted that his public pronouncements remain valid despite the criticism.
The Escalation and Legal Bet
The situation grew tense when Zhao made a 1-billion-dollar bet to prove his words about the divorce.
Moreover, he even volunteered to undergo legal verification should Xu agree to participate in the bet.
Xu did not accept the strategy and said that such a publicly declared bet was not befitting the leaders of controlled firms.
Therefore, he cast doubt on how such activities would be perceived by regulators of a high-profile exchange executive.
The Wider Context and Ongoing Dispute
The dispute is part of a wider struggle that can be traced back to earlier conflicts over business transactions and accusations.
In addition, Zhao has addressed past allegations in his book and refuted them, citing critics.
Moreover, both individuals continue to clash in the media, and the conflict remains ongoing in the crypto industry.
Therefore, the scenario underscores the ongoing conflict between major exchange executives as competition rises.
Key Points
- Diplomatic negotiations between Washington and Tehran concluded after 21 hours without agreement in Pakistan
- Nuclear weapons development remained the central sticking point, according to Vice President JD Vance
- President Trump directed immediate naval blockade operations in the Strait of Hormuz
- Approximately 20% of worldwide petroleum and LNG shipments transit through the strategic waterway
- Energy commodity prices anticipated to surge when trading begins Monday
Diplomatic efforts between Washington and Tehran concluded without resolution on Sunday in Islamabad, Pakistan, as 21 hours of intensive negotiations failed to produce a breakthrough on fundamental disagreements.
The American negotiating team, headed by Vice President JD Vance, cited Iran’s unwillingness to halt its nuclear weapons development as the primary obstacle to reaching an accord.
“Our non-negotiable requirements have been communicated with absolute clarity, and they have declined to meet our conditions,” Vance stated to journalists in Islamabad during the early hours of Sunday.
Tehran’s diplomatic representatives characterized the outcome differently, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei noting that complex international disputes require multiple rounds of engagement. He emphasized that “diplomatic channels remain open” for continued dialogue.
The negotiating agenda encompassed three critical issues: governance of the Strait of Hormuz passage, extending the temporary ceasefire agreement, and implementing a graduated sanctions reduction framework. Iranian semi-official news outlets characterized American proposals as “unreasonable.”
Since hostilities between the United States and Israel commenced in late February, Iran has effectively halted maritime transit through the Strait of Hormuz. This critical chokepoint facilitates roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas transportation worldwide.
On Sunday, two unladen oil tankers attempted passage through the strait but reversed course precisely when the diplomatic talks concluded.
Presidential Order for Naval Interdiction
Following the diplomatic breakdown, President Trump announced via Truth Social that U.S. naval forces would commence blockade operations in the Strait of Hormuz without delay.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz,” Trump wrote.
Trump additionally declared that American naval vessels would detain any ship operating in international waters that had submitted payment to Iranian authorities. “No vessel paying an illegitimate fee will receive safe passage through these waters,” he stated.
The President characterized the diplomatic session as productive overall, noting that “most points were agreed,” while acknowledging the insurmountable divide concerning Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
Energy Markets Prepare for Volatility
Market observers predict substantial increases in petroleum and natural gas valuations when trading commences Monday. Nick Twidale, chief market analyst at AT Global Markets in Sydney, noted growing optimism last week preceding the negotiations.
“This could set us back to levels that we were trading at prior to the ceasefire announcement,” Twidale said. “I would think we will see oil open higher alongside the dollar.”
The recently established two-week ceasefire now appears increasingly unstable. Pakistani officials, who facilitated the discussions, described them as “constructive” and pledged ongoing mediation support.
Casualties from the conflict have exceeded 5,600 across Iran, Lebanon, and surrounding territories. U.S. Central Command reports thirteen American military personnel have been killed.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu advocated for the removal of enriched nuclear materials from Iranian facilities regardless of whether diplomatic agreements materialize.
Key Highlights
- Micron’s Q2 fiscal 2026 quarterly sales surged nearly 200% compared to the prior year, with records set in all divisions
- AMD delivered $10.3 billion in Q4 2025 sales, marking a 34% jump year-over-year alongside a 57% non-GAAP gross margin
- TSMC forecasts approximately 30% revenue expansion in 2026 when measured in U.S. dollars
- Despite strong AI exposure, these three companies maintain more modest price-to-earnings multiples than leading AI chipmakers
- TSMC anticipates its AI accelerator division will expand at a compound annual rate in the mid-40 percent range through 2029
Three semiconductor powerhouses—Micron, AMD, and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing—are riding the artificial intelligence wave with impressive momentum. Yet despite robust financial performance and accelerating growth trajectories, market analysts suggest these stocks may be undervalued relative to their sector peers.
The ongoing buildout of AI infrastructure has created surging demand across the semiconductor supply chain, from specialized memory modules to cutting-edge processors and advanced fabrication services. While these companies occupy distinct positions within this ecosystem, they share a compelling characteristic: substantial revenue acceleration without the elevated valuation multiples commanded by other AI-focused names.
Micron: Transforming from Commodity Memory to Critical AI Component
Micron has undergone a remarkable repositioning in investor perception, evolving from a cyclical commodity producer into an essential AI infrastructure provider.
During the company’s fiscal second quarter of 2026, revenues expanded almost threefold versus the same period twelve months prior. The semiconductor manufacturer achieved unprecedented performance levels across its entire product portfolio, including DRAM, NAND flash, high-bandwidth memory, and all operating segments.
Profitability metrics showed equally dramatic improvement. The company’s fiscal third-quarter outlook alone is projected to surpass total annual revenue figures from any fiscal year ending through 2024.
Artificial intelligence servers demand massive quantities of specialized high-bandwidth memory, and Micron has positioned itself as a primary supplier for this critical component. Company leadership indicated that robust demand coupled with constrained supply conditions will likely persist well into 2027.
The manufacturer is also negotiating extended, multi-year supply agreements with major customers, potentially transforming the business model toward greater predictability and reducing the historical boom-bust patterns that characterized the memory industry.
Despite these fundamental improvements, Micron continues trading at a valuation discount compared to AI chip designers, even as memory has become indispensable to the AI computing architecture.
AMD: Impressive Performance in Nvidia’s Shadow
AMD announced record quarterly sales of $10.3 billion for Q4 2025, representing a 34% year-over-year increase. The company achieved a non-GAAP gross margin of 57%.
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc., AMD
Chief Executive Lisa Su characterized 2025 as a transformational year and emphasized that the company began 2026 with substantial forward momentum. She highlighted the EPYC processor family and expanding data center AI operations as primary growth engines.
AMD is constructing a comprehensive AI ecosystem that encompasses data center graphics processors, server central processing units, and strategic system-level collaborations.
Market participants frequently position AMD as a direct competitor to Nvidia and sometimes dismiss it as the inferior alternative. However, AMD’s investment thesis doesn’t require outperforming Nvidia entirely. The company simply needs to capture increasing market share within a rapidly expanding addressable market while maintaining healthy profit margins.
If AMD sustains its AI accelerator growth trajectory while preserving margin discipline, several analysts believe current valuations may prove significantly discounted when viewed retrospectively.
TSMC: The Essential Manufacturing Infrastructure Powering AI Innovation
TSMC produces the sophisticated semiconductor chips that power much of today’s AI economy. The foundry giant projects 2026 revenues will expand by nearly 30% when denominated in U.S. currency.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited, TSM
AI accelerator production represented a high-teens percentage of total 2025 revenue. Management forecasts this segment will grow at a compound annual growth rate in the mid-40 percent range during the five-year period beginning in 2024.
TSMC’s strategic position differs fundamentally from Micron or AMD. The company maintains diversification across products and customers rather than depending on any single offering or client relationship. As long as demand for leading-edge semiconductor manufacturing remains robust, TSMC occupies an irreplaceable position within the global supply chain.
The manufacturer operates production facilities throughout Taiwan, Japan, and the United States, with additional American expansion projects currently in development.
Final Thoughts
Micron, AMD, and TSMC have all delivered compelling financial results in their latest reporting periods. Each company maintains substantial exposure to AI hardware demand while demonstrating expanding revenues and improving profitability. The sustainability of these growth trends will largely depend on whether AI infrastructure investment maintains its current pace throughout the remainder of 2026 and beyond.
Key Takeaways
- Major indices secured back-to-back weekly gains: S&P 500 advanced 3.5%, Dow Jones climbed 3%, Nasdaq jumped 4.7%
- Financial sector heavyweights including JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America release quarterly results this week
- Consumer prices posted their steepest monthly jump in nearly two years during March, primarily fueled by energy costs
- WTI crude trading around $98 per barrel, though forward contracts point to potential decline toward $85 by summer
- Technology sector shows dramatic split: software names plunge 30% while chip manufacturers soar over 20% year-to-date
Equity markets concluded their second straight positive week as Wall Street shifts focus toward quarterly corporate reports. The benchmark S&P 500 index rose 3.5%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 3% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite surged 4.7% over the five-day period. Despite remaining in negative territory for 2026, all three major gauges now sit less than 1% away from returning to breakeven.
The coming days feature a packed calendar of corporate announcements. Goldman Sachs kicks things off Monday. JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo deliver their numbers Tuesday. Bank of America and Morgan Stanley are scheduled for Wednesday, while Netflix and Taiwan Semiconductor round out the week with Thursday releases.
Investors remain attentive to international developments as well. Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran conducted in Pakistan throughout the weekend concluded without breakthrough, as Tehran declined commitments regarding nuclear weapons development, Vice President JD Vance disclosed Saturday evening.
Crude Oil Remains Central Market Driver
Since hostilities between the United States and Iran commenced, petroleum prices have emerged as the primary metric capturing trader attention. West Texas Intermediate crude finished Friday’s session near $98 per barrel, representing a significant jump from approximately $68 before conflict erupted.
Yet forward contracts for July settlement are pricing oil substantially lower around $85. Evercore ISI’s Julian Emanuel suggested that WTI settling in the “low-to-mid $80s” range would sufficiently eliminate downward pressure on equities.
The temporary 14-day truce involving the United States, Israel, and Iran provided market participants with renewed confidence during the previous week. The sustainability of this ceasefire will largely determine petroleum pricing and, consequently, broader equity market trajectory.
Friday’s inflation data revealed consumer prices climbed 0.9% during March, marking the steepest one-month advance since June 2022. Economic analysts attributed the bulk of this surge to energy-related increases stemming from geopolitical tensions.
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment gauge dropped to an all-time low in April, though researchers noted 98% of survey responses were gathered prior to the ceasefire announcement.
Diverging Fortunes Within Technology Sector
The performance gap among technology stocks has expanded dramatically. The iShares Software Sector ETF tumbled more than 7% during the past week and now shows a 30% decline year-to-date.
Salesforce represents the category’s weakest performer, sliding over 35% in 2026. AppLovin, Intuit, and ServiceNow have each retreated more than 40%. Microsoft, Palantir, and Oracle have all declined more than 25%.
Chip manufacturers present a contrasting picture. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF has gained over 20% during the current year. Intel, Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Marvell Technologies have each surged more than 50%.
ASML unveils results Wednesday, followed by Taiwan Semiconductor on Thursday. Taiwan Semiconductor’s preliminary March revenue figures released last week indicated robust ongoing demand for artificial intelligence processors.
Netflix also joins the reporting schedule Thursday, capping an action-packed week for corporate earnings.
Oil futures surged on Hyperliquid after President Donald Trump ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, a major global supply chokepoint. The move came after Iran refused to give up its nuclear ambitions during peace talks in Islamabad earlier in the day.
Perpetual futures tied to WTI crude oil jumped to $96.40, up 7% on the day, extending early gains. Brent futures rose 6% to $96.
Notably, WTI futures registered $1.53 billion in trading volume, making it the third-most-traded instrument on the platform behind BTC and ETH. The data highlights growing investor preference for price discovery on decentralized blockchain platforms, especially when traditional markets are closed.
This blockade news couldn’t have come at a worse time, as mid-April marks a critical period for the oil market, when the large-scale drawdown of strategic petroleum reserves coordinated by the International Energy Agency begins to approach its limit.
Those emergency releases, initiated after the war broke out on Feb. 28, have been offsetting a supply shortfall of roughly 4.5 to 5 million barrels per day caused by disrupted flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but as these buffers run down in the coming weeks, that gap risks widening sharply to roughly 10 to 11 million barrels per day if normal supply is not restored.
If this scenario materializes, it would amount to “a supply shock without precedent in the modern oil market,” the House of Saud recently said. The IEA’s Chief, Fatih Birol, warned last week that the oil supply shock could be worse in April than in March.
The impact on markets would likely be immediate, with oil benchmarks gapping higher on Monday amid tighter supply expectations, equities facing renewed risk-off pressure amid inflation concerns, and volatility rising across both traditional and crypto markets as traders reassess global growth assumptions.
Bitcoin, which is considered a leading indicator for risk assets by some traders, is already under pressure. As of writing, it changed hands near $71,000, down nearly 3% on the day, according to CoinDesk data.
Crypto prices are under further pressure during U.S. morning hours on Sunday after President Trump announced a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Effective immediately, the United States Navy … will begin the process of blockading any and all ships trying to enter, or leave, the Strait of Hormuz,” said the president in a social media post.
The president’s move came hours after Vice President J.D. Vance late Saturday announced that U.S. and Iranian negotiators had failed to agree to an extended ceasefire after long weekend meetings in Pakistan.
Trading above $73,000 for most of Saturday, bitcoin quickly pulled back to the $71,500 area following the Vance comments. In the minutes since President Trump announced the blockade, BTC has slid further to $70,900, now lower by 2.5% over the past 24 hours.
The largest traders have a problem: how to keep their activity quiet enough to not influence market prices or reveal any long-term strategies.
In traditional markets like equities, they’ve had that ability for decades through so-called dark pools and off-exchange venues. Even as far back as January 2025, more than half of all U.S. equities trading took place off public exchanges, according to Bloomberg data.
Crypto has never had an equivalent, and the absence is increasingly difficult to ignore. Every trade on Hyperliquid, every order on a decentralized exchange, is visible to anyone paying attention, and companies like DeFiLlama and Arkham exist to collect and present that data in a digestible way.
The crypto market, which prides itself on disrupting traditional finance, has replicated one of TradFi’s most persistent structural problems: If you’re big enough to move markets, everyone can see you coming. As a result, firms providing liquidity on public decentralized exchanges say their strategies get reverse-engineered quickly
“On Hyperliquid, one of the top market makers told us they have to rotate their trading strategies every three weeks because they get copied,” Denis Dariotis, co-founder of GoQuant, a crypto trading infrastructure firm backed by GSR, said in an interview. “That’s the alpha problem.”
There are other consequences, too. Market makers — the firms providing the liquidity that keeps crypto markets functioning — operate in full public view, and the industry has developed a habit of making them the villain whenever something goes wrong. Recent scrutiny of Jane Street‘s involvement in the Terra/Luna collapse is only the latest example. A large firm’s onchain activity gets traced, a narrative forms and the company spends weeks managing a PR crisis over trades that, on a traditional venue, would have been entirely unremarkable.
GoQuant’s answer is GoDark, a decentralized exchange (DEX) set to start up on Solana in May. That platform uses zero-knowledge proofs to conceal trade details not just from other market participants, but also from the node operators running the order book. The ambition is radical: a matching engine where nobody in the system can see what they’re matching.
The immediate question is whether that’s technically achievable at any useful speed. Zero-knowledge proofs are computationally expensive, and the architecture adds latency that privacy-agnostic systems don’t have to absorb. Internal testing puts order matching at 25 to 50 milliseconds — Dariotis frames this as fast relative to most decentralized exchanges, where execution often runs into the hundreds of milliseconds, and he’s right. But it’s also an order of magnitude slower than what’s available to firms co-located with a centralized exchange. For retail traders that gap probably doesn’t matter. For the market makers GoDark is banking on to provide liquidity, it might.
Which brings up the harder problem. A private exchange with no volume is just a dark room. GoDark’s plan to seed liquidity mirrors what Hyperliquid did with its HLP vault — users deposit funds, the funds get deployed as market-making liquidity, participants take a cut of fees and first access to liquidations.
It worked for Hyperliquid. But it has not worked for most of the DEXes that have tried to replicate the model since, which have generally seen volume collapse once the incentive period ends.
Then there is the regulatory question, which the team has so far avoided having to answer directly. Traditional dark pools are private in the narrow sense that they conceal pre-trade order information, but they operate under post-trade reporting requirements and regulatory oversight.
GoDark’s privacy is more absolute by design, it’s structurally incapable of producing a full audit trail. The inclusion of automated OFAC screening is a gesture toward compliance, but it is unlikely to satisfy regulators who have spent the past three years pushing crypto toward more transparency, not less. How that tension resolves — and whether it limits institutional participation to jurisdictions with lighter oversight — remains to be seen.
GoDark is separate from GoQuant’s existing institutional product of the same name, a spot DEX built with Copper and GSR that enters production next month and targets a different, narrower client base. The May launch is the retail-facing version.
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