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Crypto World

Bitcoin-gold ratio flashes historic warning as altcoins sink to record lows

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Bitcoin-gold ratio flashes historic warning as altcoins sink to record lows

Gold at $5k exposes how brutally altcoins have lagged, even as gold-backed RWA tokens like PAXG and XAUT surge in adoption and on-chain trading.

Michaël van de Poppe fires a warning flare. “The current valuation of #Altcoins against Gold is the lowest it has ever been… The RSI has turned to 25 on the weekly timeframe. This has never happened,” he writes, adding that the only prior analogue was “the COVID crash (a Black Swan).” With spot gold grinding around $5,000 per ounce, that ratio now acts as a brutal scoreboard of how far non‑major crypto has lagged the metal.

Real‑world‑asset tokens backed by gold sit at the center of this stress test. PAX Gold (PAXG), which represents title to allocated London Good Delivery bars, trades near $5,035.43, down 0.09% over the last 24 hours, with a $425.2M daily volume and a $4,985.75–$5,088.73 intraday range.

Leading the way are Ondo (ONDO), up about 0.3% over the last 24 hours, PAX Gold (PAXG), higher by roughly 0.6% on the day, Maker (MKR), gaining around 2–3% in 24 hours, and Chainlink (LINK), trading fractionally lower on the day, which analysts say may be bucking the broader crypto bear trend.

Tether Gold (XAUT) changes hands around $5,013.23, essentially flat on the day, after a 7.4% gain over the last week and an 11.41% rise over the past month. Both instruments track bullion tightly, but remain small compared with the broader crypto complex, underscoring how little capital has actually migrated into tokenized metals despite gold’s parabolic move. Live market stats for PAXG and XAUT are available on their respective crypto.news price pages:

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The RWA Sector by the Numbers

Zooming out, the RWA sector is growing, but unevenly. CoinMetrics and Tokeny data put tokenized commodities—dominated by gold‑backed tokens like PAXG and XAUT—in roughly the $0.8–$1B range as of the latest comprehensive report, a rounding error next to spot gold’s multi‑trillion‑dollar market.

More recent industry analysis highlights a sharp acceleration: tokenized gold and silver market value has pushed to new highs into 2026 as regulatory clarity improves and large institutions experiment with on‑chain funds and vault‑linked products. Yet derivatives flow shows how violently this niche still trades; one recent week saw RWA perpetuals volume spike above $15.5B as gold futures dropped over 10% and silver nearly 28%, forcing liquidations across levered positions.

Altcoins vs Gold: Structural Cheapness, Not Just Panic

That backdrop explains why van de Poppe’s chart looks so extreme. Altcoins—especially sub‑top‑100 RWA plays—have been doubly hit: first by structural dilution (new token issuance, unlocks) and second by liquidity tightening that rewards “sleep‑at‑night” gold over speculative tails. As one responder put it, “altcoins hitting historic lows versus gold screams opportunity if you can stomach volatility… rsi at 25 on weekly shows extreme oversold conditions, rarely this extreme.” Whether that becomes the “ultimate arbitrage” for believers in the long‑term blockchain thesis, or just another value trap, will depend on the next macro liquidity flip—not on narratives alone.

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Crypto World

CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

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CFTC Chair Says Agency is Ready to Oversee Entire Crypto Market

Michael Selig, US President Donald Trump’s nominee leading the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), said the agency was prepared to oversee the entire $3 trillion crypto industry, with no timeline for Congress to pass a crucial market structure bill.

In a Wednesday statement about his first 100 days as CFTC chair, Selig said that the commission was “ready to take responsibility” for the crypto market and reiterated his claim that it was the sole regulator to oversee prediction markets.

His comments come as the US Senate considers the CLARITY Act, a crypto market structure bill that has been effectively stalled in committee amid discussions over stablecoin yield and other issues.

“The same regulatory clarity being delivered to the crypto industry is being developed for prediction markets, which can serve as powerful tools for information discovery and are regulated by the CFTC under the Commodity Exchange Act,” said Selig.

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Under Selig, who was confirmed by the Senate in December, the CFTC has adopted many policies signaling that the agency would soften its enforcement and regulation of digital assets compared to previous administrations. In March, the agency announced a memorandum of understanding with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) as part of efforts to coordinate on regulation, including digital assets.

Related: Crypto exchange KuCoin agrees to $500K settlement, ending CFTC case

Although early drafts of the market structure bill suggested the legislation could give the CFTC additional authority to oversee digital assets, the SEC is expected to continue regulating cryptocurrencies it considers to be securities.

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Lawmakers pressing CFTC on insider trading claims over prediction markets

US state authorities and federal lawmakers have been targeting prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket over alleged violations of gaming laws and claims of politicians using insider information to profit.

While many of the state-level actions continue to be litigated in court, Selig has claimed that the CFTC has “exclusive jurisdiction” over prediction markets and threatened legal action against any challenges to its authority.

In a Tuesday event, CFTC enforcement director David Miller said that the agency’s position was that event contracts on prediction markets were not “gaming” but rather “swaps” that fall under its purview.

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Some lawmakers have also proposed legislation to ban elected officials with insider information from profiting from event contracts after suspicious trades on military actions involving Iran and Venezuela.

Magazine: A newbie’s guide to surviving crypto winter