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Bitcoin harder to use than gold, Ross Gerber says

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Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news

Bitcoin is facing renewed criticism from investment adviser Ross Gerber, who questioned the cryptocurrency’s practical utility on Aug. 16 and argued that physical gold remains easier to use in many places.

Summary

  • Bitcoin drew fresh criticism from Ross Gerber, who said gold remains easier to use globally.
  • Gerber questioned Bitcoin’s practical utility despite previously supporting the cryptocurrency and offering exposure to clients.
  • Strategy’s first 2026 Bitcoin sale occurred in late May, not April, SEC filings confirm officially.
  • Strategy later sold 1,638 Bitcoin worth $104.7 million during the week ending August 2, 2026.
  • Bitcoin traded near $63,528 Monday as Gerber renewed criticism of its utility against physical gold.

Gerber wrote in an X post that it was “probably easier to use gold than bitcoin in most places still.” He also questioned what lasting products the crypto industry had built despite years of claims about Bitcoin’s monetary use cases. The comments represent Gerber’s opinion and do not establish that gold is objectively more useful than Bitcoin.

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Bitcoin criticism marks a shift for Gerber

Gerber’s stance is notable because his firm has previously embraced digital assets. Gerber Kawasaki says it partnered with Gemini in April 2021 to provide digital asset exposure to clients, while Gerber himself spent years speaking positively about Bitcoin.

His tone has become increasingly skeptical in 2026. Gerber recently wrote that Michael Saylor “kinda makes me over Bitcoin” and said the asset was becoming difficult for him to take seriously. Those remarks are personal assessments rather than evidence that Strategy’s activity has damaged Bitcoin’s network or long-term value proposition.

As crypto.news previously reported, Gerber accused Saylor’s leveraged Bitcoin strategy of hurting the market, although he provided no data showing Strategy alone caused Bitcoin’s price declines.

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Strategy has continued selling Bitcoin in 2026

One detail in earlier coverage requires correction. Strategy did not sell 32 BTC in April. Its SEC filing shows the company sold 32 BTC between May 26 and May 31 for roughly $2.5 million at an average price of $77,135. It was Strategy’s first disclosed Bitcoin sale since December 2022.

The company has since made larger disposals. Strategy sold another 1,638 BTC for $104.7 million during the week ending Aug. 2, then sold 1,690 BTC for $108.6 million between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9. The latter proceeds funded repurchases of its STRC preferred stock. Strategy held 840,447 BTC as of Aug. 9 at an aggregate purchase cost of $63.36 billion.

In related coverage, crypto.news reported that Strategy’s first 32 BTC sale broke a nearly four-year accumulation streak.

Bitcoin miners are shifting capacity toward AI

Gerber has also questioned Bitcoin mining as companies redirect infrastructure toward artificial intelligence workloads. That shift is real among several listed miners, although it does not mean Bitcoin mining is disappearing.

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Core Scientific, for example, said in April that it was converting a Pecos, Texas facility with 300 megawatts then used for Bitcoin mining into an AI data-center campus. Its second-quarter filing showed colocation revenue rising to $136.7 million while digital asset self-mining revenue fell to $21.5 million.

As crypto.news reported, Bitcoin miners are increasingly converting power infrastructure into AI data centers as demand for high-performance computing grows. That business shift supports part of Gerber’s observation about miners, but it does not prove his broader claim that Bitcoin’s strongest period has passed.

Bitcoin traded around $63,528 on Monday, up roughly 0.8% from the previous close. There is no evidence that Gerber’s remarks caused the move.

Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news
Bitcoin (BTC) price chart, source: crypto.news

Gerber’s comments instead add to an ongoing debate over whether Bitcoin should primarily be judged as a payment network, store of value or investment asset. His criticism also comes as Strategy continues managing Bitcoin alongside preferred-stock obligations and major miners increasingly weigh Bitcoin economics against AI infrastructure revenue.

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Bitcoin Just Took a $390 Million Hit: A JPMorgan Warning From April Explains Why

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Fertilizer Is Cooling but Still Elevated

Bitcoin just absorbed a $390 million shock, and a warning JPMorgan issued back in April explains why. Institutions pulled that sum out of spot Bitcoin ETFs last week as oil spiked and the Strait of Hormuz stayed shut.

The Bitcoin price is holding near $63,500 despite the exit, yet the selling traces a clean line from a blocked shipping lane, through inflation, to crypto order books.

Why Is the Oil Shock Back, and Why Does Bitcoin Care?

Brent crude pushed back above $88 a barrel in the week to August 15, up more than 5%, after the US said its naval blockade of Iran could run indefinitely while talks to reopen the Strait of Hormuz stayed deadlocked.

The same blockage does more than lift crude. The Middle East ships close to a quarter of the world’s urea through Hormuz, and JPMorgan flagged that nitrogen fertilizer benchmarks jumped 25 to 50% after the conflict began. With the World Bank’s fertilizer index near its highest since 2022, the bank saw that ripple lifting global food inflation toward 4 to 5%.

Those prices have eased from the April peak in recent weeks, but they sit far above pre-war levels, and this week’s oil surge alongside renewed Hormuz attacks threatens a second leg higher.

Fertilizer Is Cooling but Still Elevated
Fertilizer Is Cooling but Still Elevated: BeInCrypto

For Bitcoin, the connection comes down to one word, inflation.

Sticky energy and food costs give the Federal Reserve reason to keep rates high, and high rates drain the cheap liquidity that risk assets lean on.

How an Oil Shock Reaches Bitcoin
How an Oil Shock Reaches Bitcoin: BeInCrypto

So a shock that begins in a shipping lane lands on crypto order books, and the collapse of the US-Iran ceasefire keeps that pressure building rather than fading.

Are Bitcoin Whales Selling Into the Inflation Fear?

The first traders to act on that logic were the whales. Reading the same macro signal, wallets holding 1,000+ BTC peaked near 1,963 on July 31, according to Glassnode, then thinned steadily through August as oil climbed.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

The trend is the entire story. The cohort’s 30-day change turned net negative around August 10, the very week crude pushed higher, meaning the largest holders were cutting exposure as the inflation threat hardened.

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BTC Whale Address Count
BTC Whale Address Count: Glassnode

When the most informed money leaves first, the slower money usually follows. But the whales weren’t the only ones.

Why Did $390 Million Leave Bitcoin ETFs?

Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds bled about $390 million in the week to August 14, just after the whales turned, their heaviest weekly outflow since early July and a sharp reversal from the $853 million they absorbed the week before.

That order is the whole point.

ETF Flows Weakening
ETF Flows Weakening: SoSoValue

The macro fear hit whales first and funds second, so the selling flowed from Hormuz through inflation to Bitcoin in a matter of weeks.

Whales Blinked First, Funds Followed
Whales Blinked First, Funds Followed: BeInCrypto

Even so, the Bitcoin price has drifted near $63,500 rather than crashed, which reads as steady de-risking instead of panic.

How Has the Price Reacted to War Before?

If that chain sounds ominous, history offers a counterweight. When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin fell about 9% in two days. It then rebounded roughly 15% within five weeks. The 2023 Israel-Hamas war barely moved it. Moreover, June 2025’s Israel-Iran flare-up knocked BTC about 4% before a ceasefire sparked a recovery.

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Bitcoin Reaction to War Shocks
Bitcoin Reaction to War Shocks: BeInCrypto

So war itself has not stayed bearish for long. The first drop has repeatedly proven a shakeout that de-escalation reversed. This is the pattern our analysis of the Ukraine playbook traced in detail. If another de-escalation wave arrives, Bitcoin prices can again start showing strength. However, this time both whales and ETFs are not seeing an optimistic conclusion to the current scenario.

Analyst’s View: From here, the story splits two ways. If the Gulf tension eases, or if whales and ETF buyers simply step back in, the dip likely repairs itself. Same way the past war scares did. Then the bottom talk fades as fast as it started. Experts watching the chains already describe an accumulation zone, even while admitting the floor is not yet in.

The other path is harder. If the Bitcoin ETFs keep bleeding through August, historically one of Bitcoin’s weakest months, and whales keep selling rather than buying, the capitulation could deepen into the kind of floor that only forms once sellers are exhausted. In short, a real Bitcoin bottom may still be near. Yet, it forms only if the fear gets worse before it gets better.

The post Bitcoin Just Took a $390 Million Hit: A JPMorgan Warning From April Explains Why appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin 69-73 Days From Bottom, But Does BTC Still Follow Cycles?

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NY Judge Halts Lawsuit Claiming 39,069 Dormant Bitcoin Wallets Until July Hearing

Benjamin Cowen says Bitcoin (BTC) is between 69 and 73 days from its next cycle bottom. He bases that estimate on Bitcoin’s current cycle-day count of 1,363.

The prior two cycles bottomed on day 1,432 and day 1,436, respectively. That places Cowen’s projected low near October 2026.

Why Bitcoin’s Cycle Bottom Call Faces Pushback

Cowen’s day-count model has become a go-to reference for traders. Historically, he has argued the current cycle topped within a week of the prior two cycles. He used that timing to defend the four-year cycle framework.

He has made that case before.

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Bitcoin topped within one week of when it historically tops, despite the narratives for calling the four-year cycle dead.

Cowen made the comment earlier this year, and is still holding to it as it approaches.

Bitcoin is Showing Signs

Cowen has also flagged August and September as historically weak months. In past midterm election years, Bitcoin fell an average of roughly 10% in August. September has typically added further, smaller losses before any recovery began.

However, not every analyst agrees the old clock still applies. Fidelity has pointed to new lows in one-year volatility appearing just months after Bitcoin’s record high. That pattern, the firm says, never showed up in earlier cycles.

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Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan has gone further. He argues that spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and corporate treasury demand have weakened the old halving cycle. Grayscale’s 2026 outlook made a similar case, citing steady ETF inflows as evidence the boom-bust pattern no longer holds cleanly.

Still, Cowen’s recent research paper argues the floor has barely moved across four cycles, even as blow-off tops have flattened. Whether that holds through October will decide which camp was right this time.

The post Benjamin Cowen Says Bitcoin 69-73 Days From Bottom, But Does BTC Still Follow Cycles? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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BitMart faces Aug. 19 deadline over withdrawals and user funds

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What is ISO 20022? The banking standard behind the XRP, XLM, and ALGO hype

BitMart users and employees have demanded that the crypto exchange disclose its reserves, explain reported withdrawal restrictions, and publish a repayment plan by Aug. 19 as questions continue over customer funds and unpaid staff compensation.

Summary

  • BitMart users and employees have demanded a public explanation over withdrawal restrictions and unpaid compensation.
  • The group wants BitMart to disclose its assets, liabilities, wallets and usable reserves by Aug. 19.
  • A detailed user repayment plan and independent third party audit have also been requested.
  • The group said it may submit evidence to regulators and law enforcement if BitMart fails to respond by the deadline.

A public statement posted on X and addressed to BitMart founder Sheldon Lee and Yi Li said a large number of users remained unable to withdraw their assets, while some employees had not received their previous month’s salary or compensation owed to them.

The statement called for BitMart to provide verifiable information on its wallets, assets, liabilities and reserves available to meet customer withdrawals. It also asked the exchange to accept independent third-party scrutiny of the figures instead of relying on company statements about its financial position.

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In a translated version of the statement, the group called on BitMart to “disclose the wallets,” “disclose the assets,” “disclose the liabilities” and “disclose the actual usable reserves.”

The demands come weeks after BitMart announced plans to wind down its trading platform after nine years of operation. On July 26, the exchange said it would stop new registrations, deposits and new trading activity while allowing customers to withdraw funds during the shutdown process.

BitMart said at the time that all trading services would end on Aug. 26 before the company ceased operations on Jan. 31, 2027. The exchange attributed the decision to its operating conditions, market environment, and future strategy without identifying a specific financial or operational event behind the closure.

BitMart users seek answers over withdrawal restrictions

Alongside the request for reserve information, the open letter asked BitMart to explain why users were reportedly still unable to complete withdrawals normally and when management first became aware of the problems.

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The statement asked who decided to restrict withdrawals, when the decision was made, and whether BitMart continued encouraging customers to deposit, trade or leave assets on the platform after management became aware of withdrawal or funding issues.

BitMart had addressed separate withdrawal complaints before announcing its shutdown. In a statement published in June, the exchange said reports of users being unable to withdraw or facing account restrictions were mainly connected to risk controls targeting what it described as an organized scheme designed to exploit platform activity subsidies.

Following the July shutdown announcement, BitMart said withdrawals would remain available but could be subject to additional checks involving identity verification, devices, IP addresses, withdrawal destinations, sources of funds and sanctions screening. The exchange also warned that a large number of requests could increase processing times.

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The current open letter disputed whether the shutdown notice alone addressed the problems reported by users and employees, arguing that customers needed an accounting of the assets available to meet their balances.

Such disclosures would require information beyond a list of wallet holdings to establish a complete picture of an exchange’s finances. A proof-of-reserves report can verify crypto held in identified wallets against customer balances at a particular time, but it does not necessarily reveal off-chain liabilities, borrowed assets or other obligations.

Recent exchange disclosures show how those figures can be presented. In July, crypto.news reported that Binance reserve data showed customer Bitcoin holdings increasing by 7,715 BTC during June, with the report based on a July 1 snapshot. The same report noted that reserve snapshots do not constitute complete financial audits.

Open letter calls for investigation of related accounts

The BitMart statement also sought an investigation into accounts, affiliated companies, trusts and other arrangements that may have handled funds connected to users.

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Yi Li was specifically asked to explain the source and ownership of funds held in accounts allegedly associated with her. The open letter said materials awaiting further verification indicated that accounts linked to Li may have held assets worth tens of millions of dollars and showed records of withdrawals conducted in batches.

The statement did not present the unverified information as proof of wrongdoing and explicitly said no criminal characterization should be applied to any individual before the evidence was established.

Instead, the authors asked Li to confirm whether the accounts existed and, if so, identify who owned the assets, where the funds originated, why they entered the accounts, where withdrawals were sent and whether any of the money had a connection to BitMart customer assets.

“If these records are fake, please publicly clarify,” the statement said.

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The open letter also referred to social media posts showing luxury purchases associated with Li but acknowledged that such spending was not evidence of a crime. Its authors argued that questions about the source of funds should be answered because of the allegations surrounding BitMart’s finances.

Any funds potentially connected with customer assets should be traced across accounts, companies and ownership structures, according to the statement, which called for an independent investigation into the relevant transactions.

Employees demand unpaid salaries and compensation

Employee payments form a separate part of the demands, with the statement claiming that some BitMart staff had not received their previous month’s salaries or compensation owed following the exchange’s decision to wind down.

The authors argued that ordinary employees were not responsible for decisions about company finances or the shutdown and should not bear losses resulting from management decisions.

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“Work done deserves pay. Compensation owed must be paid,” the statement said.

BitMart’s closure came after the exchange had maintained a sizeable presence in crypto trading. Previous coverage in December 2025 found that BitMart showed higher order-book depth across observed Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual markets than several competing centralized exchanges during the measured period.

The exchange also suffered a major security breach years before its current wind-down. In December 2021, hackers compromised BitMart hot wallets and removed roughly $196 million in crypto assets, after which the exchange said affected customers would be compensated.

BitMart repayment plan sought by Aug. 19

The open letter set Aug. 19 as the deadline for BitMart to provide both a verifiable asset disclosure and a detailed repayment plan for users.

Under the requested plan, BitMart would disclose the value of remaining assets and total liabilities, estimate how much customers could recover and explain the order in which repayments would be processed.

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Users also requested dates for the beginning and completion of repayments, details of the party responsible for overseeing the process and confirmation of whether BitMart would submit to an independent third-party audit.

Reserve disclosures have become common among major centralized exchanges, although the scope of reporting differs between platforms. June reserve reports from Bybit and OKX showed higher customer Bitcoin balances at both exchanges, while their reported USDT holdings declined. The snapshots provided wallet and customer-balance information but did not establish the companies’ complete financial positions.

For BitMart, the open letter sought a disclosure specifically tied to its ability to meet outstanding customer claims during the wind-down, including the amount of usable reserves and liabilities remaining on the platform.

If BitMart does not provide a complete and verifiable response by Aug. 19, the authors said they would consider submitting available materials, transaction leads and other evidence to law enforcement agencies, regulators, lawyers and media organizations in multiple jurisdictions.

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The statement also called on crypto companies, industry figures, researchers and media organizations to follow the dispute and support independent examination of the fund flows. Its authors said they were not asking third parties to accept the allegations in advance and instead wanted the underlying evidence made public.

“If BitMart’s core management thinks there’s any misunderstanding in the above questions, they can absolutely address them one by one with public, verifiable evidence,” the statement said.

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Greenlane’s $70M BERA treasury ends Q2 valued at $16M

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Greenlane’s $70M BERA treasury ends Q2 valued at $16M

Greenlane’s $70M BERA treasury ends Q2 valued at $16M

Greenlane recorded a $19.1 million noncash valuation loss as BERA’s price fell nearly 76% year to date.

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Personal Data Of 39,798 Users At Risk

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Crypto Breaking News

SafePal, a Binance-backed non-custodial wallet provider, has disclosed a data breach exposing the personal details of 39,798 users, including names, shipping addresses, phone numbers, and purchase data.

According to the company’s announcement, the breach impacted customers who placed orders with SafePal between March 2, 2025, and April 11, 2026. However, SafePal has assured users that private keys, seed phrases, and crypto assets are not compromised.

Crypto Hit By Safepal Breach

SafePal disclosed the flaw on X, attributing it to a flaw in the order-tracking plug-in that exposed the personal details of a small subset of customers. According to the post, the order information of customers who placed orders between March 2, 2025, and April 11, 2026, including names, shipping addresses, email addresses, phone numbers, and purchase details, was compromised.

“Dear community, while your SafePal wallet, seed phrase, and private keys are secure, we identified a flaw in the order-tracking plug-in that led to unauthorized access to information of a subset of customers.”

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The company notified the affected users via email and stated that it had identified and fixed a verification defect in the plug-in that allows customers to track their orders. SafePal has also introduced additional security measures and removed over 30 fake websites and phishing links associated with the breach. However, a report by BleepingComputer states that at least one threat actor is selling stolen data from the breach on a cybercrime forum. Additionally, some users have reported phishing attempts as early as May.

Seed Phrases, Private Keys Secure

SafePal confirmed that seed phrases, private keys, wallet passwords, hardware wallets, and crypto assets were not compromised during the breach thanks to its cold storage architecture. Furthermore, the breach did not involve bank details, payment card numbers, or any government-issued identification number. SafePal has set up a dedicated tool for users to check if their details were compromised during the breach.

Implication For Safepal Users

While the breach did not compromise users’ funds or private keys, it exposed crucial personal details tied to users. This puts users at risk of phishing attacks or elaborate social engineering scams. SafePal has warned users to be wary of attempts to access wallet credentials, crypto assets, and other personal information through fraudulent emails, text messages, phone calls, letters, offers, phishing websites, fake firmware update requests, and customer support communication.

SafePal has also issued an advisory stating it would never ask for their recovery phrase, PIN, or private keys. The advisory added that users must move their funds to a new wallet if they had entered a seed phrase or private key on a suspicious website or in response to a suspicious message following the breach.

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Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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why Pi Network’s social dominance is not converting to demand

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How does Pi mining work? The tech behind the tap

Pi Network tops crypto social dominance rankings while trading 97% below its all-time high. The gap between the project’s 60 million users and its $0.09 price reveals a structural disconnect between community attention and market demand.

Summary

  • Santiment data shows Pi Network leading crypto social dominance rankings for multiple weeks in mid-2026, yet PI trades near $0.09, down more than 97% from its February 2025 all-time high of $3.00.
  • Roughly 1.21 billion PI tokens are scheduled to unlock across 2026 at a rate of approximately 6.5 million per day, all mined at zero cost, creating persistent sell pressure that social buzz alone cannot absorb.
  • Binance and Coinbase have not listed PI despite an 86.8% community vote in Binance’s case, leaving the token without access to the two largest retail order books in crypto.
  • Historical precedents from ICP, EOS, and XRP show that large communities can sustain social noise indefinitely without translating it into price appreciation when structural supply and liquidity barriers remain in place.
  • The ESMA white paper registration and the approaching Protocol 27 “final planned upgrade” remove specific objections but do not address the core disconnect: social activity measures attention, not demand.

Pi Network has spent much of 2026 as one of the most discussed tokens in crypto. By several on-chain social metrics, it is the most discussed. Santiment’s social dominance tracker, which measures the share of total crypto conversation that a single asset captures, has shown PI at or near the top for multiple weeks running. The project’s Telegram groups remain among the largest in crypto. Its X mentions routinely outpace tokens with ten times its market capitalization. On Reddit, Pi Network threads generate more engagement than coverage of most top-20 assets.

None of this has moved the price.

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PI sits near $0.09 as of mid-August 2026, roughly 97% below the $3.00 peak it reached during the euphoria of its open mainnet launch in February 2025. The market capitalization hovers just below $1 billion. Daily trading volume rarely exceeds $15 million, a number that would be unremarkable for a token ranked in the 200s, let alone one that claims 60 million users. The gap between Pi’s social presence and its market performance is not a mystery waiting to be solved. It is a case study in the mechanics of why attention, community size, and online engagement do not automatically convert to buying pressure.

This article examines those mechanics. For readers looking for the regulatory and protocol upgrade picture, crypto.news has covered that angle separately in a feature on Protocol 27 and its implications. The focus here is narrower and, for holders, possibly more uncomfortable: what specifically breaks the transmission mechanism between social buzz and token price, and whether Pi’s version of this problem is fixable.

The social dominance paradox

Social dominance in crypto analytics refers to the percentage of total social media mentions across the industry that a single token captures. When Santiment shows Pi Network at number one, it means more people are talking about PI on Twitter, Telegram, Reddit, and other tracked platforms than about Bitcoin, Ethereum, or Solana. That is a remarkable achievement for any asset, and it is especially notable for one trading under ten cents.

The instinct is to treat social dominance as a leading indicator. If enough people are talking about a token, the logic goes, some of them will buy it, and price follows attention. This model works in specific conditions: when the token is liquid, when it trades on exchanges that the audience actually uses, and when the social activity reflects new interest from participants who do not already hold the asset. Pi meets none of these conditions cleanly.

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The 60 million Pioneers who make up Pi’s user base are not passive observers discovering a new token. They are existing holders, many of whom have been mining PI on their phones for years. When they post about Pi on social media, they are not signaling fresh demand. They are expressing existing conviction. The social dominance metric captures the volume of their voices without distinguishing between a thousand new buyers researching a token and a million existing holders defending their position.

This distinction matters because social dominance correlates with price only when it reflects capital rotation. When Bitcoin’s social dominance spikes during a halving cycle, it typically coincides with new retail and institutional money entering the market. When a meme token trends on X, it often reflects a burst of speculative buying from traders who did not hold the asset before. Pi’s social activity is structurally different. It is a closed loop of community engagement that rarely intersects with the order books where price is actually determined.

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Supply at zero cost: the 1.21 billion token overhang

The most direct explanation for why social buzz does not move PI’s price is mechanical: the supply side overwhelms any demand the community generates.

Pi Network’s token unlock schedule for 2026 releases roughly 1.21 billion tokens into circulation over the course of the year. That works out to approximately 6.5 million new tokens per day, every day, regardless of whether anyone is buying. An additional 775 million tokens are expected to enter the market as three-year lockup periods expire. The total circulating supply already exceeds 11 billion tokens.

The critical detail is the cost basis. Every one of these tokens was mined for free on a mobile phone. The holders paid nothing to acquire them. In any market, when a large number of participants hold an asset at zero cost, the rational behavior is to sell at any price above zero. Not all holders will sell. But enough will sell, consistently, to create a permanent headwind that requires substantial new buying to overcome.

Consider the math. At $0.09 per token, 6.5 million daily unlocks represent approximately $585,000 in potential new sell pressure every single day. That is $4 million per week, $17 million per month. For a token with daily trading volume between $10 million and $15 million, absorbing even a fraction of that sell flow requires buyers who are actively choosing to purchase PI on an exchange. Social media posts, no matter how enthusiastic, do not place buy orders.

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The first year of Pi’s open mainnet proved this dynamic conclusively. Despite sustained community engagement and multiple protocol upgrades, the price fell from $3.00 to under $0.10 as unlocks flooded the market. The community grew louder as the price fell, which is exactly what you would expect from holders defending an underwater position. The social metrics improved. The price did not.

The exchange gate: why Binance and Coinbase matter more than volume

If social dominance does not convert directly to price, the natural follow-up question is: where does buying pressure actually come from? In crypto, the answer is almost always exchange listings. When a token gains access to a major exchange, it gains access to that exchange’s entire user base, millions of potential buyers who could not previously purchase the asset even if they wanted to.

Pi has made partial progress here. Kraken listed PI for spot trading in March 2026, and OKX extended access to U.S. users in May. Both were meaningful milestones. But as crypto.news detailed in its price prediction analysis, the token kept falling after both listings. The reason is that Kraken and OKX, while reputable, are not where most retail crypto buyers live.

Binance and Coinbase together account for a disproportionate share of global retail trading volume. Binance’s user base exceeds 200 million registered accounts. Coinbase serves as the default entry point for American retail investors. A token listed on both platforms has access to a liquidity pool that is qualitatively different from one available only on mid-tier exchanges.

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Binance held a community vote in February 2025 in which 86.8% of roughly 226,000 participants supported listing PI. The exchange never acted on the result. The stated concerns, code transparency, insufficient independent security audits, questions about decentralization, and token concentration risk, remain unresolved as of August 2026. Coinbase has been even quieter, offering no public commentary on PI at all.

The absence of these two platforms creates a structural ceiling on demand. Pi’s community can generate all the social buzz in the world, but if the exchanges where most buyers transact do not offer PI, that buzz has no on-ramp to the order book. The community is loud. The order book is thin. And price is set by the order book.

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How social buzz without liquidity traps price

The interaction between high social activity and low liquidity creates a specific kind of trap. In a liquid market, social attention leads to order flow, which leads to price discovery. In an illiquid market, social attention leads to frustration, which leads to more social activity, which still does not generate order flow. The feedback loop amplifies noise without amplifying signal.

Pi’s trading volume tells this story clearly. Daily volume sits between $10 million and $15 million, with occasional spikes above $20 million during catalyst events. For context, Dogecoin, a meme token with a fraction of Pi’s claimed user base, routinely trades $500 million to $1 billion per day. Shiba Inu, another community-driven token, regularly sees $200 million or more. The difference is not community size. It is exchange access and speculative capital flow.

When Pi spikes on a catalyst, the pattern is consistent. Protocol v25 triggered a 39% rally in July 2026, pushing PI briefly above $0.10. Within days, the rally lost steam as open interest collapsed to $9.6 million and sellers absorbed the move. The CPI data release on August 12 pushed PI up 5% in a single session, then the token drifted back toward $0.088. Each spike attracts social media celebration, which registers as rising social dominance, which commentators interpret as bullish, which does not produce a sustained bid.

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The thin order books mean that even modest selling, a few hundred thousand dollars, can push the price down noticeably. Conversely, thin books also mean that a genuine demand shock, a Binance listing, for example, could move price dramatically upward. But that is a statement about potential, not current reality. In the current structure, PI is caught in a low-liquidity trap where social engagement circulates within the community without reaching the exchange infrastructure that determines price.

Historical precedent: large communities, thin markets

Pi is not the first token to have a massive community and a declining price. The history of crypto is littered with projects that built enormous social followings only to watch price detach from engagement. The patterns are instructive.

Internet Computer (ICP) launched in May 2021 at a peak near $700, backed by a sophisticated technical vision and a community of developers who had followed the project for years. Within three months it had fallen to $30. Within two years it was under $5. Throughout that decline, the ICP community remained one of the most vocal in crypto, producing constant content about the project’s technical merits. Social activity stayed high. Price kept falling. The mechanism was the same as Pi’s: massive token unlocks from early participants who had received allocations at low or zero cost, combined with a market that had already priced in the best-case scenario before the fundamentals could catch up.

EOS raised $4 billion in the longest ICO in crypto history, launched with one of the largest and most engaged communities in the industry, and spent the next five years losing more than 95% of its value. The EOS community produced more governance proposals, more social media content, and more developer advocacy than most projects in the top 100. None of it translated to sustained buying pressure because the token’s supply dynamics and competitive position deteriorated faster than community enthusiasm could compensate.

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XRP presents a different but related lesson. Ripple’s community, often called the XRP Army, has been one of the most active social media forces in crypto for nearly a decade. During the SEC lawsuit years from 2020 to 2025, XRP’s social dominance routinely spiked to levels comparable to Bitcoin and Ethereum. Price moved only when external catalysts, court rulings, exchange re-listings, provided structural changes to accessibility and regulatory risk. The social activity itself was noise. The signal was the legal and exchange infrastructure underneath it.

The common thread across all three cases is that community engagement sustains attention but does not create the structural conditions for price appreciation. Those conditions require some combination of reduced supply growth, expanded exchange access, and genuine on-chain utility. Pi has the attention. It is still working on the rest.

The opposing case: when community mass did convert

Not every large community fails to move price. Dogecoin and Shiba Inu both started as community-driven projects with minimal technical differentiation and achieved market capitalizations in the tens of billions. Understanding what made them different from Pi clarifies what Pi would need to change.

Dogecoin’s 2021 rally was driven by a specific set of conditions that Pi does not share. First, DOGE was listed on every major exchange, including Binance, Coinbase, and Robinhood, giving its community direct access to the deepest liquidity pools in crypto. Second, the community’s social activity attracted new capital from outside the existing holder base, driven in part by endorsements from Elon Musk and viral TikTok campaigns. Third, DOGE’s supply inflation, while perpetual, was low relative to its market cap, meaning the dilution did not overwhelm incoming demand.

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Shiba Inu followed a similar pattern. Its community generated enough social momentum to force exchange listings, which created the liquidity infrastructure that allowed social buzz to convert to order flow. The token was listed on Binance within months of its initial surge and on Coinbase shortly after. Each listing unlocked a new pool of retail buyers.

The critical difference is the sequence. For DOGE and SHIB, community energy led to exchange listings, which led to liquidity, which led to price appreciation. For Pi, the sequence is stalled at the second step. The community energy exists. The exchange listings, at least on Binance and Coinbase, have not followed. Without the liquidity bridge, the community’s energy circulates internally without converting to market demand.

The opposing thesis for Pi bulls is straightforward: if Binance or Coinbase lists PI, the dynamic could reverse rapidly. Pi’s community is larger than Dogecoin’s was at the time of its 2021 breakout. If that community gains access to deep order books, the pent-up demand could produce a price move that dwarfs anything Pi has seen since its mainnet launch. This thesis is invalidated if both Binance and Coinbase continue to decline PI after Protocol 27 stabilizes the protocol and the ESMA registration removes the EU regulatory question, because at that point the community will have run out of structural excuses. It is also invalidated if a major listing occurs and the price still falls, which would confirm that the supply overhang is simply too large for any amount of retail demand to absorb.

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What Protocol 27 and the ESMA filing change, and what they do not

Two recent developments have renewed optimism within the Pi community: the approaching Protocol 27, which the Core Team has called the “final planned upgrade,” and the ESMA registration of Pi’s MiCA white paper (entry 549, filed by PiBit Ltd). Both are real milestones. Neither directly addresses the social-to-price disconnect.

Protocol 27 matters for exchange listings because a stable, finalized protocol is easier to audit than one undergoing frequent breaking changes. Exchanges cite code transparency and security audit concerns as reasons for not listing PI. A protocol that stops changing gives independent auditors a fixed target, which could eventually produce the third-party security review that Binance and Coinbase appear to require. But Protocol 27 itself is not an audit. It is a precondition for one.

The ESMA registration matters because it provides legal standing for PI to be offered within the European Union. For exchanges considering EU markets, this removes a regulatory blocker. But dozens of tokens have registered MiCA white papers. The registration makes Pi compliant with a baseline requirement. It does not differentiate the project from competitors.

Neither development changes the supply schedule. The 6.5 million daily token unlocks will continue after Protocol 27 and after ESMA registration. Neither development forces Binance or Coinbase to list PI. And neither development converts social media engagement into exchange order flow.

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What these milestones do is narrow the list of valid objections. Before Protocol 27, critics could argue that the protocol was too immature for serious exchange integration. After Protocol 27, that argument weakens. Before the ESMA filing, critics could argue that Pi lacked regulatory standing in major markets. After the filing, that argument is gone for the EU. The community’s task shifts from generating noise to forcing a decision from the exchanges that control access to retail liquidity. Whether that decision comes in Pi’s favor depends on factors, independent audits, governance reform, token concentration analysis, that social dominance cannot influence.

What to watch

Four metrics will determine whether Pi’s social dominance eventually converts to demand or remains permanently decorative.

First, watch the Binance and Coinbase response to Protocol 27. If the protocol stabilizes and both exchanges still decline to list PI within six months, the structural barrier to demand conversion is likely permanent under current conditions. Every month without a listing is a month where 195 million new tokens enter circulation without a matching increase in buyer access.

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Second, watch daily trading volume relative to daily unlocks. If volume consistently stays below $20 million while 6.5 million tokens per day enter circulation, the sell-side math remains unfavorable. A sustained rise above $30 million to $50 million in daily volume, even without a major listing, would suggest that organic demand is beginning to absorb supply.

Third, watch on-chain transaction activity distinct from exchange trading. Pi’s claimed 13 million active wallet addresses and 51,800 Pioneer-built applications represent potential utility. If those applications generate real transaction volume, measured by contract calls, not just wallet counts, Pi would have a demand source independent of exchange listings. The KYC validator workforce that completed 526 million tasks is an example of real on-chain utility, but its scale, roughly $2 million in total payouts, is too small to move a billion-dollar token’s price.

Fourth, watch the composition of social activity. If Pi’s social dominance begins to include mentions from institutional accounts, exchange research desks, and DeFi protocols, that signals a broadening of interest beyond the existing holder base. If social dominance remains driven entirely by Pioneers defending their position, the metric is measuring conviction, not demand. Conviction without liquidity is a community. Conviction with liquidity is a market.

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Why bitcoin’s $48 billion in futures open interest looks like a powder keg?

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Why bitcoin's $48 billion in futures open interest looks like a powder keg?

Volume, meanwhile, is dead simple as it measures the number of contracts that changed hands during a given period. Think of it as measuring how many times the front door of that exclusive club opened and closed over a given period, regardless of who stayed. It thus represents the degree of churn or liquidity available to manage positions.

So, the latest case of volume falling far behind OI is like a large club with a tiny exit door. What happens if a large number of people try to rush out?

Because overall investor positioning is massive, a sudden catalyst could trigger a wave of contract closures, such as forced liquidations due to margin shortages. Without the underlying daily volume to provide liquidity, the market may not be able to absorb the rush smoothly, leading to volatile, exaggerated price swings.

“The risk is mechanical. When open interest towers over daily volume, liquidations meet little resting flow to absorb them, and adverse moves extend further than they otherwise would. Traders have added substantial risk, most of it long, into a market that shows no matching demand,” blockchain analytics firm Glassnode said in a report.

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The risk of an exaggerated move is particularly likely to the downside because of weakening demand and a lack of resting bids or buy orders at lower price levels.

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what the institutional pullback means

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what the institutional pullback means

Binance has overtaken CME Group in Bitcoin futures open interest for the first time since late 2023, holding roughly 148,500 BTC against CME’s 102,840. The reversal unwinds two years of institutional dominance narrative and raises questions about whether traditional finance is retreating from crypto derivatives or simply relocating.

Summary

  • Binance has surpassed CME Group in Bitcoin futures open interest for the first time since late 2023, holding roughly 148,500 BTC ($9.6 billion) compared with CME’s 102,840 BTC ($6.7 billion).
  • CME open interest has fallen to its lowest level since February 2024 after five consecutive months of decline, driven largely by the unwinding of the cash and carry basis trade.
  • The annualized Bitcoin futures basis has compressed to roughly 3%, falling below the 3.8% yield on two year U.S. Treasuries, eliminating the arbitrage incentive that fueled institutional CME positioning.
  • Market makers and hedge funds are migrating toward offshore perpetual contracts on Binance, Bybit, and OKX, while a parallel regulatory shift is bringing perpetual futures onshore through CFTC approved venues like Kalshi.
  • The reversal raises fundamental questions about whether the “institutional adoption” narrative built on CME dominance was always more fragile than it appeared, and whether traditional finance is retreating or simply relocating.

For two years, a single chart told the story of Bitcoin’s institutional coming of age. CME Group, the Chicago exchange where pension funds, sovereign wealth managers, and hedge funds trade everything from corn to crude oil, held more Bitcoin futures open interest than any venue on Earth. That lead over Binance, the offshore exchange synonymous with retail speculation, became the most cited proof point for the “institutions are here” thesis.

That chart has now flipped. Binance holds roughly 148,500 BTC in open interest, worth approximately $9.6 billion. CME has dropped to around 102,840 BTC, or $6.7 billion, its lowest reading since February 2024. The gap is not narrow. It is roughly 45,000 BTC wide and growing.

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The shift did not arrive overnight. CME open interest has fallen for five consecutive months, accelerating through the second quarter of 2026 as the profitability of the basis trade collapsed and institutional appetites shifted. What looked like a permanent structural change in Bitcoin market microstructure may have been, at least in part, an arbitrage play dressed in institutional clothing.

Understanding what happened, why it matters, and where it leads requires following the money through a maze of basis spreads, regulatory upheaval, and the evolving definition of what “institutional” even means in crypto.

The basis trade machine and how it broke

The centerpiece of CME’s rise to the top of the Bitcoin futures leaderboard was not directional conviction. It was the cash and carry basis trade, a delta neutral strategy older than most of the people trading it.

The mechanics are straightforward. Buy spot Bitcoin, or more commonly after January 2024, buy shares of a spot Bitcoin ETF like BlackRock’s IBIT. Simultaneously sell Bitcoin futures on CME at a premium to the spot price. The difference between the futures price and the spot price, the basis, represents annualized yield. When Bitcoin was rallying through 2024 and the first half of 2025, that basis regularly exceeded 15% to 20%, dwarfing anything available in traditional fixed income.

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Hedge funds, proprietary trading desks, and institutional players rotated capital into this trade at scale. According to CFTC Commitments of Traders data, leveraged funds held persistent net short positions on CME Bitcoin futures throughout most of 2024 and 2025, the signature footprint of the basis trade. They were not bearish on Bitcoin. They were harvesting yield from the contango.

The problem is that the basis trade is self limiting. As more capital enters, competition compresses the spread. As Bitcoin’s price declined from its highs above $120,000 to the $60,000 to $80,000 range through the first half of 2026, futures premiums collapsed alongside it. By mid 2026, the annualized three month basis on CME had fallen to roughly 3%, below the 3.8% yield on two year U.S. Treasuries.

At that point, the math stopped working. Why lock up capital in a trade that earns less than risk free government debt, while carrying counterparty risk, margin requirements, and the operational complexity of rolling quarterly futures contracts? The answer, for most institutional desks, was to unwind.

The unwinding was not panic. It was arithmetic. The Block reported that CME Bitcoin futures activity slumped to a 14 month low in April 2026, with average daily open interest falling below $8 billion and daily trading volume dropping under $3 billion. Each month since has continued the decline.

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The scale of the exodus is visible in the raw numbers. CME began 2026 with approximately 175,000 BTC in open interest. By April, that figure had dropped to roughly 120,000 BTC. By August, it sat near 103,000 BTC, a decline of more than 40% in eight months. For context, the open interest that CME lost over this period, roughly 72,000 BTC, represents more than $4.5 billion in notional value at current prices. That is not a rounding error. It is a structural repricing of where institutional derivatives capital lives.

Where the money went

The capital that exited CME did not vanish from the Bitcoin derivatives market. Some returned to direct spot holdings, simplifying portfolios and removing the futures leg entirely. But a meaningful share migrated to offshore perpetual contracts, the instrument that dominates crypto derivatives trading and has for years.

Perpetual futures, which have no expiration date and use a funding rate mechanism to stay tethered to spot prices, account for roughly 90% of all crypto derivatives volume globally. Binance alone controls approximately 33% of the centralized perpetual futures market, followed by OKX and Bybit. In the first quarter of 2026, Binance tightened its grip even as overall crypto trading volume declined, capturing a 40% share of perpetual futures activity.

The appeal for institutional market makers is not mysterious. Perpetuals offer continuous liquidity without the friction of quarterly roll dates. Margin requirements on offshore exchanges are more flexible. And for desks that are genuinely market neutral, providing liquidity on both sides, the funding rate on perpetuals can generate yield similar to the old basis trade, often with better capital efficiency.

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What has changed is not the existence of these benefits, which offshore venues have offered for years, but the willingness of institutional participants to act on them. As the basis trade on CME became unprofitable and the regulatory climate around perpetuals began to shift, the stigma of trading on offshore venues appears to have softened for a segment of the institutional market.

This does not mean Goldman Sachs is opening a Binance account. The migration is concentrated among crypto native market makers, quantitative trading firms, and smaller hedge funds that operate across jurisdictions. Many of these firms are registered in Singapore, Dubai, or the British Virgin Islands and face no regulatory barrier to trading on Binance or similar platforms. For them, the question was never whether they could trade offshore but whether the economics justified staying on CME. Once the basis spread vanished, the answer changed.

These participants were a significant share of CME’s open interest, and their departure has been measurable. CoinGecko data from the first quarter of 2026 shows that Binance and OKX together dominate the perpetual futures landscape, with decentralized perpetual exchanges also nearly quadrupling their share of open interest year over year, adding another layer of competition that CME cannot match.

CME’s countermove and why 24/7 was not enough

CME did not sit idle while its Bitcoin futures franchise eroded. On May 29, 2026, the exchange launched 24/7 trading for cryptocurrency futures and options, eliminating the weekend gap that had been a persistent structural disadvantage against crypto native venues.

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The inaugural weekend saw more than 7,200 contracts traded, roughly $50 million in notional value. Average daily volume across CME’s crypto complex reached 407,200 contracts, up 46% year over year. The exchange also introduced Bitcoin volatility futures on June 1, expanding the toolkit available to institutional traders.

These moves addressed genuine pain points. Corporate treasury desks, asset managers, and hedge funds running Bitcoin positions had long struggled with the inability to adjust hedges during weekends when spot markets kept moving. The CME gap, a visible discontinuity in Monday’s opening price relative to Friday’s close, was a real source of basis risk.

But 24/7 trading arrived too late to reverse the basis trade exodus. The open interest decline continued through June, July, and August, suggesting that the forces driving capital away from CME were more fundamental than trading hours. The basis trade collapse was a yield problem, not an access problem, and extending trading hours does not restore the contango.

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The perpetual futures revolution comes onshore

While CME was losing open interest to offshore venues, a parallel regulatory development was reshaping the competitive landscape from the other direction. On May 29, 2026, the same day CME went 24/7, the CFTC approved Kalshi’s BTCPERP contract, the first Bitcoin perpetual futures product listed on a regulated U.S. exchange.

The approval represented a watershed moment for American crypto derivatives trading. Perpetual futures had existed exclusively offshore for nearly a decade, generating trillions of dollars in annual volume on exchanges beyond the reach of U.S. regulators. The CFTC’s decision to allow them onshore, initially through Kalshi and with additional applications from Coinbase and others in the pipeline, opened a new front in the competition for institutional flow.

CME’s response was to sue. The exchange filed a federal lawsuit against the CFTC and its chairman, arguing that the agency had overstepped its authority and that perpetual futures should be classified as swaps, not futures, which would subject them to different regulatory treatment and potentially restrict their availability. The legal argument centers on whether a contract that never expires and settles through continuous funding rate payments meets the statutory definition of a futures contract or whether it more closely resembles a swap, which carries heavier compliance obligations including mandatory clearing and reporting. The case remains pending, and its outcome could reshape the regulatory framework for crypto derivatives in the United States for years to come.

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Kalshi’s early traction has been notable. Within weeks of launch, the platform generated more than $5.5 billion in cumulative perpetual futures volume. It subsequently added Ethereum, Solana, and XRP perpetuals, broadening its product lineup beyond Bitcoin.

The implications for CME are significant. If regulated perpetual futures gain a foothold in the United States, they could siphon volume not only from offshore venues but from CME’s own quarterly futures contracts. The instrument that CME is fighting in court may ultimately become the instrument that defines the next phase of institutional crypto derivatives trading.

Was institutional adoption ever what it seemed?

The Binance CME flip forces a reexamination of the “institutional adoption” narrative that has underpinned much of the bullish thesis for Bitcoin since 2024. That narrative rested on several pillars: the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, the growth of CME open interest, the expansion of custody solutions from banks like Citi, and the entry of traditional brokerages like Charles Schwab into crypto trading.

Each of those pillars remains standing. Spot Bitcoin ETFs control more than $100 billion in assets, even as the institutional rotation into other products accelerates. Schwab launched Bitcoin and Ethereum trading on its $13 trillion platform in May 2026. Citi is building $30 trillion custody rails scheduled for deployment later this year.

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But the CME open interest decline reveals that a meaningful portion of what was counted as “institutional demand” was actually basis arbitrage, mechanically long spot and short futures, with no directional view on Bitcoin’s price. When the basis compressed, the demand disappeared.

This distinction matters for how markets interpret institutional flow. A pension fund buying IBIT because its investment committee believes in Bitcoin as a long term asset is fundamentally different from a prop trading desk buying IBIT and shorting CME futures to harvest a 15% annualized spread. Both show up as ETF inflows. Both contribute to CME open interest. But only one represents genuine conviction in Bitcoin’s value proposition.

The first half of 2026 exposed this ambiguity. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows, the first negative half year since the products launched in January 2024. A significant portion of those outflows traced directly to basis trade unwinding, as desks closed the spot leg alongside the futures leg. The headline, that institutions were dumping Bitcoin, obscured the more nuanced reality that arbitrageurs were simply closing a trade that no longer paid.

The opposing case: why this reversal may be temporary

Not everyone reads the Binance CME flip as a structural shift. Several factors could reverse the trend and restore CME to the top of the open interest rankings within months.

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First, the basis trade is cyclical. When Bitcoin enters its next sustained rally and futures premiums expand back into double digit contango, the cash and carry trade will become profitable again. Institutional capital will return to CME for the same reason it arrived: risk adjusted yield. A move above $100,000 in spot Bitcoin, combined with renewed ETF inflows, could compress the timeline for this reversal to weeks rather than months.

Second, CME’s 24/7 trading is still new. The exchange needs time to build liquidity around the clock, particularly on weekends when crypto markets are often most volatile. As that liquidity deepens, the structural advantages of trading on a CFTC regulated exchange, counterparty clearing through CME Clearing, standardized margin, and regulatory certainty, may draw institutional flow back.

Third, the regulatory crackdown on offshore exchanges could intensify. Binance has operated under scrutiny from U.S., European, and Asian regulators for years. Any enforcement action, licensing restriction, or counterparty event affecting Binance could rapidly shift open interest back toward regulated venues.

The invalidation criteria for the structural shift thesis are clear: if Bitcoin’s three month annualized basis on CME returns above 8% for a sustained period, if CME regains the open interest lead from Binance, or if U.S. spot ETF flows turn decisively positive again, the reversal narrative loses its foundation.

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What the hedge fund positioning data reveals

One of the most telling signals in the CME data is not the decline in overall open interest but the shift in how hedge funds are positioned. For most of 2024 and 2025, leveraged funds on CME held persistent net short positions, the signature of the basis trade. In recent weeks, CFTC Commitments of Traders data shows that hedge funds have flipped to a net long position, a rare and significant shift.

This flip suggests that the remaining institutional participants on CME are no longer running delta neutral arbitrage. They are taking directional bets on Bitcoin’s price. The nature of institutional demand on CME is changing from yield extraction to conviction, which is arguably a healthier and more durable form of institutional participation.

The flip also means that the next phase of CME open interest growth, when it comes, may be driven by genuine directional flow rather than arbitrage. This could produce a CME open interest profile that is smaller in absolute terms but more meaningful as a signal of institutional sentiment.

Whether this transition is complete or merely in its early stages remains unclear. The net long positioning could reverse if Bitcoin’s price declines further, triggering stop losses and margin calls among the remaining directional traders. But for now, the data suggests a qualitative change in the type of institution that trades Bitcoin futures on CME.

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There is a parallel signal worth noting. JPMorgan analysts have observed that institutional participation in perpetual futures skews heavily toward speculative trading instead of hedging, a dynamic that differs from traditional commodity futures markets where commercial hedgers anchor open interest. If CME’s remaining participants are increasingly directional while perpetual venues remain speculative, the two markets may be evolving toward different functions entirely: CME as a venue for macro conviction bets, and perpetuals as the infrastructure for short term trading and market making.

What to watch

The Binance CME flip is not the end of institutional Bitcoin adoption. It is, however, the end of a specific chapter in which CME open interest served as the primary scoreboard for measuring it.

Several developments will determine whether this shift is temporary or permanent. The Bitcoin futures basis is the single most important variable: if annualized yields return above 8% to 10%, expect the basis trade and the CME open interest it generates to come back quickly. The trajectory of U.S. spot ETF flows will signal whether institutional appetite for Bitcoin exposure, independent of arbitrage, is growing or contracting.

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The onshore perpetual futures market deserves close attention. Kalshi’s volume trajectory, CME’s lawsuit against the CFTC, and whether additional regulated venues launch competing perpetual products will shape the competitive landscape. If perpetuals win regulatory acceptance in the United States, the quarterly futures contract that made CME the center of institutional crypto trading may become an increasingly niche product.

Binance’s regulatory status is equally critical. The exchange is operating under a monitored compliance agreement with U.S. authorities and faces ongoing scrutiny in multiple jurisdictions. Any deterioration in Binance’s regulatory position could rapidly redistribute open interest toward CME and other regulated venues.

Finally, watch the CFTC Commitments of Traders data for shifts in hedge fund positioning. The recent flip from net short to net long is a meaningful signal, but it needs confirmation over multiple reporting periods to constitute a trend.

The market structure that emerges from this transition will look different from what came before. A world in which CME, Kalshi, Binance, and decentralized perpetual protocols each serve distinct segments of the institutional and retail spectrum is more fragmented but potentially more resilient than one in which a single venue dominates. The risk is that fragmentation reduces transparency, making it harder for regulators and market participants alike to gauge total leverage in the system.

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The story of Bitcoin’s institutional market is not the story of one exchange winning and another losing. It is the story of capital finding the most efficient venue for each strategy at each moment. Right now, that search is pulling capital away from CME and toward offshore perpetuals, onshore innovations, and direct spot holdings. Where it goes next depends on basis spreads, regulation, and whether the next Bitcoin rally reignites the machine that made CME dominant in the first place.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Cryptocurrency markets carry significant risk, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. Published August 16, 2026.

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Higgsfield Hits $5.4 Billion Valuation: Is AI Video Back?

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AI Is Handing Hackers Tools That Once Belonged to Elite Attackers

Higgsfield has raised $400 million at a $5.4 billion valuation, with Goldman Sachs, Intel, and DST Global as new backers. The AI video startup said the round will fund enterprise expansion and computing power.

The deal follows an $80 million raise in January that valued the company at $1.3 billion. That marks a four-fold jump in eight months. Founder Alex Mashrabov confirmed the terms to the Financial Times.

Enterprise Demand Drives the Valuation Jump

Higgsfield was founded in 2023 by former Snap executive Alex Mashrabov. The platform turns text prompts into marketing videos for businesses. It launched publicly in 2025 and now serves more than 30 million users across 238 countries.

Annualized revenue reached $700 million in August, up from $20 million a year earlier, according to the company. Business customers now generate most of that revenue. That marks a sharp shift from January, when they made up less than a quarter of sales.

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That enterprise pivot mirrors a broader pattern across AI cloud providers like Nebius. Usage-backed revenue has drawn premium valuations from growth investors this year.

“At Snapchat, the face filters I built were primarily used by teenagers for entertainment. At Higgsfield, we are transforming how larger businesses run marketing campaigns,” Mashrabov said.

Mashrabov said brands including Dollar Shave Club now use Higgsfield to produce several videos a day, not one campaign asset. That reduces reliance on outside creative agencies.

AI Video’s Cost Problem Sank a Bigger Rival

Higgsfield’s rise stands in sharp contrast to the retreat seen elsewhere in AI video, after OpenAI shut down its Sora video app in 2026 following just $2.1 million in lifetime revenue against heavy cash burn.

OpenAI discontinued the app in April, then confirmed it would close the underlying API in September. The company cited runaway compute costs against just a small fraction of that in lifetime revenue.

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Reports pegged Sora’s daily inference costs at an estimated $15 million, far outpacing the app’s total revenue. Generating video demands far more computing power than producing text or images, making costs difficult to control. Other video-generation rivals have also pulled back this year as the same cost pressure squeezes the sector.

Goldman and Intel Join a Crowded Field

Goldman Sachs invested through its Equity Growth fund. Intel’s own AI-linked bets have grown this year as chipmakers chase stakes beyond core hardware sales. Other backers include Tribe Capital, Fifth Wall, and NTT DOCOMO Ventures.

Goldman estimates the global creator economy could grow from $250 billion in 2023 to $480 billion by 2027. Digital ad spending is forecast to reach $1.1 trillion by 2030, according to The Business Research Company.

Mashrabov said scarce computing power was a driving reason behind the raise. The new funding will let Higgsfield reserve compute capacity as it builds out enterprise products and security.

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Whether Higgsfield can sustain its pace as larger labs push into video generation remains the next test for its valuation.

The post Higgsfield Hits $5.4 Billion Valuation: Is AI Video Back? appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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A Quiet Macro Week? These US Events Could Still Spark Bitcoin Volatility

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The new business week has started on the right foot, as after a highly dull and sluggish weekend, bitcoin has finally charted a minor increase to $63,500. The following days have some important macro events in the United States that can further impact the market, albeit not as notable as the CPI data from last week or the actual FOMC meetings.

Although the calendar is considerably lighter, the Federal Reserve will return to the spotlight as investors attempt to determine what comes next for interest rates and the September meeting.

Fed Minutes in Focus

CryptoPotato reported at the end of July that the US Fed maintained the interest rates unchanged for a fifth consecutive meeting, even though this one was the most uncertain since the COVID-19 outbreak in early 2020. The decision, though, exposed a growing divide among policymakers, as three officials favored a rate hike.

Consequently, investors are now expecting the minutes for additional details about the central bank’s concerns over inflation and whether more policymakers will join the call for higher rates in the coming months. Risk assets like cryptocurrencies tend to be affected the most by the Fed’s plans as expectations for tighter monetary policy typically put pressure on speculative investments.

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The latest economic data cast another shadow on the broader picture. US retail sales unexpectedly declined by 0.6% in July, which was the first drop in nine months. Recent unemployment and inflation readings reduced the expectations for a September rate hike.

More interesting data comes on Thursday with the release of the weekly initial jobless claims, which could provide further insight into the US labor market. The August Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index will also be released on that day, which can offer an early indication of changes in economic activity.

The rest of the macro releases in the US are unlikely to have any impact on crypto. They include the August S&P Global Manufacturing and Services PIM readings.

Price Updates

Crypto prices stayed quiet over the weekend, but most assets have marked minor increases on Monday morning. Bitcoin is up to $63,400, while ETH has challenged the $1,900 level again. XRP continues to fight for the psychological $1.00 support.

HYPE and RAIN have surged the most from the larger caps, gaining 3.5% and 2.5%, respectively. WLFI is in the green again after the recent bank charter license received by the project behind it.

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The post A Quiet Macro Week? These US Events Could Still Spark Bitcoin Volatility appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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