Crypto World
Bitcoin has lost all of its gains since Trump’s election
Donald Trump has embraced bitcoin (BTC) as a core part of his second administration, creating a strategic BTC reserve, insisting all BTC should be made in the United States, and destroying or disabling huge portions of the regulatory apparatus that had previously pursued cryptocurrency firms.
Additionally, both he and his sons have vigorously embraced the industry in ways that continue to generate massive profits for this family.
Many Bitcoiners and crypto enthusiasts were similarly ecstatic for the opportunity to support Trump and free themselves from the perceived tyranny of the Joseph Biden administration and the enforcement work of then-SEC head Gary Gensler.
Jesse Powell, Tyler Winklevoss, and Cameron Winklevoss all ended up making donations to Trump that would have been illegal had they not been refunded.
Read more: Who is behind World Liberty Financial, Trump’s new crypto?
Despite this mutual embrace, the price of BTC hasn’t benefitted from the Trump administration.
When Trump was inaugurated as president, BTC was trading for approximately $101,000.
Today, it trades for approximately $67,000, a fall of approximately 33%.
Even if we imagine that the value of BTC began increasing as soon as Trump was elected, before he had any real power, in anticipation of what he might do, BTC is still down since then.
On November 5, 2024, the date of the presidential election, BTC was trading for approximately $67,800.
Today, as mentioned before, it’s several hundred dollars less than that.
Despite all the hopes Bitcoiners may have pinned on Trump, he’s done little to benefit their portfolios.
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Trader losses intensified during the first week of February. Liquidation volume kept rising as the market repeatedly crushed recovery expectations, driven by consecutive red candles.
However, several analyses point to light at the end of the tunnel, even though a rapid recovery remains unlikely.
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Over $2.6 Billion Liquidated in 24 Hours Reflects Structural Market Weakness.
CoinGlass reported that total crypto market liquidations reached $2.65 billion over the past 24 hours. Long positions accounted for more than $2.2 billion of that total.
“According to CoinGlass data, in the past 24 hours, 586,053 traders were liquidated, with total liquidations reaching $2.65 billion,” CoinGlass reported.
CoinGlass data also shows that the smallest event in the Top 10 Crypto Liquidation Events of All Time occurred recently on January 31, with $2.56 billion in liquidations. This suggests the ranking could soon be reshuffled.
The market analysis account, The Kobeissi Letter, explained that this move is not a short-term shock. It reflects a structural downturn that has been developing since October last year.
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The root causes include weak liquidity, negative sentiment, and cascading liquidation pressure across markets. The account emphasized that this is a recurring cycle: liquidations damage sentiment, and worsening sentiment triggers further liquidations.
Bitcoin’s intraday price swings of up to $10,000 were attributed to sharply reduced market depth. The current Bitcoin market depth is only 30% of its October peak. This condition mirrors the post-FTX collapse environment seen in 2022.
A BeInCrypto report noted that ongoing panic selling has pushed many crypto treasuries toward rising bankruptcy risk. Bitcoin’s drop to $60,000 pushed MicroStrategy’s holdings below cost basis, increasing balance-sheet pressure.
Against this backdrop, veteran technical analyst Peter Brandt offered a forecast based on the “Bitcoin Power Law” model. He suggested that Bitcoin could trade within a “banana peel” range, with potential support near $42,000.
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Brandt argued that if Bitcoin enters this zone, similar to previous bear cycles, bullish investors are unlikely to remain below that level for an extended period.
Is a Major Opportunity Taking Shape?
Despite the bleak outlook, not all analysts remain pessimistic.
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Glassnode reported that Bitcoin’s capitulation index recorded its second-largest spike in the past two years. This signals a sharp rise in forced selling. The metric tracks supply held at different price levels and measures market stress to identify potential local bottoms.
Such stress events often coincide with rapid de-risking and heightened volatility. Investors rebalance positions during these phases.
Large-scale liquidations also reduce overall market leverage. This process drives a shift away from leveraged speculation toward spot accumulation. “Weak hands” exit, making room for higher-conviction investors.
“Bitcoin deleveraging may create a strong opportunity soon,” economist Daniel Lacalle noted.
These observations suggest a buying opportunity may be forming. They do little, however, to pinpoint exactly when a recovery will begin.
Crypto World
Asia Market Open: Bitcoin Plunge to $64K Rattles Risk Assets as Tech Slump Ripples Through Asia
Bitcoin tumbled more than 10% toward $64,000, extending a brutal week for crypto as selling pressure spread across risk assets and shook markets from New York to Asia.
The drop dragged Bitcoin to its weakest level since late 2024, reversing momentum that had built after Donald Trump’s election win, when he signalled a more supportive stance on crypto during the campaign trail.
Crypto losses came as investors dumped tech stocks and even safe-haven trades turned jumpier. Volatility in precious metals also picked up, as leveraged bets and speculative flows amplified price swings.
Market snapshot
- Bitcoin: $64,798, down 9.2%
- Ether: $1,900, down 9.7%
- XRP: $1.27, down 12.4%
- Total crypto market cap: $2.29 trillion, down 8.2%
ETF Outflows Mount As Crypto Selloff Deepens Into February
CoinGecko data showed the global crypto market has lost about $2 trillion in value since its October peak, with roughly $800B erased over the past month. Bitcoin was down about 17% for the week and roughly 28% for the year so far, while Ether was headed for a 19% weekly slide and a 38% drop year-to-date.
Traders also kept an eye on the plumbing of the rally that powered crypto higher last year, especially flows into exchange-traded funds.
Analysts from Deutsche Bank said in a note that US spot Bitcoin ETFs witnessed outflows of more than $3B in January, following outflows of about $2B and $7B in December and November, respectively.
Akshat Siddhant, lead quant analyst at Mudrex, said currently bears remain in control of the crypto market.
“The recent decline was driven by softer US labour data and growing concerns around heavy capital spending in the AI sector, which weighed on broader risk sentiment,” he said.
“Continued ETF outflows and short-term holders moving nearly 60,000 BTC to exchanges have added to near-term selling pressure. That said, for long-term investors, this phase offers a favourable accumulation opportunity through disciplined, staggered buying.”
Matt Howells Barby, VP at Kraken, said Bitcoin’s recent tumble doesn’t rule out further short-term downside.
“Price is now entering a well-defined support zone between $54,000 and $69,000, but the weekly RSI has dipped below 30 for the first time since mid-2022 — a signal that has historically preceded major bottoms forming within a three-to-six-month window,” he said.
“In our view, a base is most likely to form in the $54,000–$60,000 range, particularly as the low-$50,000s align with the 200-day moving average.”
Risk Appetite Fades As Labour Data And Tech Losses Combine
In Asia, the risk-off mood hit equities early. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell about 1%, led by a 5% dive in South Korea’s Kospi that triggered a brief trading halt shortly after the open, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 also slipped.
US stock futures pointed lower too, after Wall Street ended sharply down overnight as tech heavyweights fell and investors questioned whether massive AI spending would translate into near-term profits.
Alphabet added to the anxiety after saying it could lift 2026 capital spending as high as $185B, part of an AI arms race that has investors watching cash burn as closely as revenue growth.
Fresh labour market signals also fed the unease, with a report showing US layoffs announced by employers surged in January to the highest level for the month in 17 years, reinforcing a broader pullback in risk appetite.
The post Asia Market Open: Bitcoin Plunge to $64K Rattles Risk Assets as Tech Slump Ripples Through Asia appeared first on Cryptonews.
TLDR
- Bitcoin has dropped to $65,000, erasing all gains since Donald Trump’s reelection in 2024.
- The cryptocurrency has lost nearly $25,000 since last Wednesday and is now almost 50% off its all-time high.
- Analysts suggest that the recent BTC crash is primarily driven by emotional selling and market sentiment.
- Experts from the Kobeissi Letter attribute the crash to fear and uncertainty, with no fundamental changes in Bitcoin’s ecosystem.
- Doctor Profit believes Bitcoin could hit a bottom between $57,000 and $60,000, presenting a potential buying opportunity.
Bitcoin has just dropped to $65,000, erasing all gains since Donald Trump’s reelection in 2024. The cryptocurrency has lost nearly $25,000 since last Wednesday. This drop marks almost a 50% decline from its all-time high in October 2025. Analysts are now speculating about the reasons behind the crash and where the bottom could be.
BTC Crash Driven by Emotional Selling
The recent BTC crash appears to be driven by emotional selling rather than any fundamental issues within the cryptocurrency ecosystem. Analysts from the Kobeissi Letter highlighted that market sentiment has been volatile. According to them, riskier assets like Bitcoin often experience large price swings due to shifts in investor sentiment.
The current bearish trend has seen a mass exodus of investors, although it doesn’t seem linked to any major changes in Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals. The experts suggest that fear and uncertainty have been driving the market, leading many to sell without any clear reason tied to the market’s core fundamentals. As a result, BTC has struggled to maintain its value.
BTC May Bottom at $57,000–$60,000
Doctor Profit, a well-known analyst with a bearish outlook, has been predicting a Bitcoin crash for months. He believes that Bitcoin is nearing its bottom, which he places at around $57,000–$60,000. “I consider $57k to $60k as a great entry to make money for the short term and gain some serious % before we continue going down,” Doctor Profit stated.
Doctor Profit has set up “big buy” orders in that range, indicating that he believes Bitcoin will stabilize and possibly recover from that level. He plans to hold for a few months and is not looking to buy Bitcoin at higher prices than that. His outlook suggests a brief short-term recovery before the next decline.
Altcoins Struggling, XRP Takes the Biggest Hit
As Bitcoin falls, altcoins are also experiencing substantial losses. XRP, in particular, has faced a major drop, falling by nearly 20% in just 24 hours. It now struggles to maintain a price above $1.25, marking a troubling trend for the token. Other altcoins are also facing pressure, but XRP’s performance has been the poorest during this downturn.
The altcoin market is taking a heavy hit, with many tokens following Bitcoin’s downward trajectory. Investors are growing increasingly cautious, and the entire market seems to be undergoing a correction. This has resulted in significant losses for many, with XRP leading the decline.
Large Bitcoin holders are now controlling the smallest share of the cryptocurrency’s supply since late May, when it first reclaimed $100,000 after more than three months, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.
Santiment posted to X on Thursday that “whale and shark wallets” holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) have fallen to a nine-month low, collectively accounting for about 68.04% of the entire Bitcoin supply.
“This includes a dump of -81,068 BTC in just the past 8 days alone,” Santiment said, as Bitcoin fell from around $90,000 to $65,000 over the same period, a roughly 27% decline, according to CoinMarketCap. Bitcoin is trading at $64,792 at the time of publication, up from a 24-hour low of just over $60,000.
Crypto market participants often track large Bitcoin holders to spot signs of accumulation or offloading, as these moves can signal whether whales believe the asset has peaked or is poised for an uptrend.
It isn’t just large Bitcoin holders that are showing signs of caution. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju posted to X on Wednesday that “every Bitcoin analyst is now bearish.”
The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, dropped to a score of 9 out of 100 on Friday, its lowest score since mid-2022, when the market was reeling from the collapse of the Terra blockchain.
While there has been a sell-off among large holders, retail investors have been aggressively accumulating. Santiment said, “This combination of key stakeholders selling and retail buying is what historically creates bear cycles.”
Related: Bitcoin slips under $64K as record-high selling intensifies: Where is the bottom?
“Shrimp wallets,” which Santiment defines as those holding less than 0.1 Bitcoin, have risen to a 20-month high since June 2024, when Bitcoin was trading at around $66,000, before falling to $53,000 just two months later in August.
However, by December 2024, it had reached $100,000 for the first time amid a booming market after Donald Trump won the US presidential election.
The cohort now accounts for 0.249% of Bitcoin’s total supply, which is equivalent to roughly 52,290 Bitcoin.
Magazine: Big questions: Should you sell your Bitcoin for nickels for a 43% profit?
Michael Saylor’s Strategy reported a $12.4 billion net loss for the fourth quarter, driven largely by mark-to-market declines in its massive Bitcoin holdings. The loss coincided with Bitcoin briefly slipping below $60,000, pushing the firm’s stash beneath its cumulative cost basis for the first time since 2023 and wiping out gains made after last year’s U.S. election rally.
For years, Strategy transformed itself from an enterprise software company into a leveraged Bitcoin proxy, exploiting a persistent premium in its stock price to raise capital and buy more BTC. That strategy is now faltering. The treasury company announced no new equity issuance or debt financing alongside earnings, signalling tightening access to capital as investor appetite cools.
While Saylor has insisted there are no margin calls and said the firm holds $2.25 billion in cash, enough to cover interest obligations for more than two years, pressure is mounting as Bitcoin continues to trade well below Strategy’s reported average acquisition price of $76,052. The company also reiterated that it does not expect to generate profits in the foreseeable future.
Strategy Holds 713,502 BTC Worth $46 Billion
Strategy currently holds more than 713,000 Bitcoin, valued at roughly $46 billion, per Bloomberg data. Although the firm added $75.3 million worth of BTC in late January, analysts say the broader model is under strain. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer told Bloomberg that investors are now focused on whether Strategy can still raise capital to fund additional Bitcoin purchases under worsening market conditions.
Critics have grown louder. As reported earlier Michael Burry recently warned that continued declines in Bitcoin could trigger cascading losses for corporate holders, reviving concerns long raised by short sellers about Strategy’s reliance on leverage and non-yielding assets. Strategy’s shares are now down nearly 80% from their November 2024 peak, underscoring how quickly sentiment has turned.
BitMine Faces $8.2B Unrealized ETH Loss as Ether Slides Below $2,000
BitMine Immersion Technologies is also sitting on roughly $8.2 billion in unrealized losses after Ethereum’s price fell to around $1,930, well below the firm’s average purchase price of $3,826 per token. The company holds about 4.29 million ETH, acquired for roughly $16.4 billion, and has seen the value of those holdings shrink following a nearly 30% decline since early January.
Despite the drawdown, BitMine has staked more than 2.9 million ETH, generating about $188 million in annual yield, holds $538 million in cash with no debt, and says it views the sell-off as a buying opportunity, even as its shares have plunged 88% from their July peak, echoing losses seen at Michael Saylor’s Strategy.
The post Strategy Posts $12.4B Loss as Bitcoin Falls Below Cost Basis appeared first on Cryptonews.
Talk about frenzied trading.
On Thursday, BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, tickered as IBIT, hit a wild record with over 284 million shares traded, per Nasdaq data. That’s a whopping $10 billion-plus in notional value.
To put it in perspective, that smashed the old record of 169.21 million shares from Nov. 21 by a massive 169%.
The record volume came as IBIT plunged 13% to under $35, the lowest since Oct. 11, 2024, extending the year-to-date loss to 27%. Prices peaked at a high of $71.82 in early October.
The fund processed redemptions totaling $175.33 million on Thursday, accounting for 40% of the cumulative net outflow of $434.11 million across 11 funds, according to SoSoValue.
IBIT, the world’s largest publicly listed bitcoin fund, holds physical coins and is designed to mirror the spot price of the world’s top cryptocurrency, which has been declining recently, crashing to nearly $60,000 on Thursday. The fund has been a preferred alternative investment vehicle for institutions seeking exposure to cryptocurrency through regulated products.
Capitulation hints
The combination of record volume and price crash often signals capitulation – long-term holders throwing in the towel and liquidating their holdings at a loss.
It marks the bear market’s peak selling phase, potentially signaling the start of a slow, painful bottoming process.
IBIT options trading on Thursday told the same story. Longer duration put options. or contracts used to hedge against downturns, reached a record premium of over 25 volatility points above call options (bullish bets), according to data from MarketChameleon.
That kind of heavy put bias often signals peak fear as well.
That said, nothing’s guaranteed, as bear markets can drag on longer than even dip buyers can stay liquid.
More than $2.6 billion worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to expire, a development that could reshape short-term price dynamics as traders unwind hedges and reposition.
The event comes amid elevated volatility, defensive positioning, and growing evidence that institutional participants are actively hedging downside risk.
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Bitcoin and Ethereum Options Expiry Could Trigger Volatility as $2.6 Billion in Contracts Settle
Data from derivatives markets shows Bitcoin accounts for the bulk of the expiry, with roughly $2.2 billion in notional value tied to contracts. Ethereum represents an additional $419 million, bringing the combined total to more than $2.6 billion.
Bitcoin is currently trading near $64,686, significantly below its max pain level of $80,000, the price at which the greatest number of options would expire worthless.
Total open interest stands at 33,984 contracts, including 21,396 calls and 12,588 puts, resulting in a put-to-call ratio of 0.59.
Ethereum, meanwhile, is trading around $1,905, also below its $2,400 max pain level. Total open interest stands at 219,034 contracts, with call open interest of 113,427 and put open interest of 105,607.
The put-to-call ratio of 0.93 suggests a more balanced, yet still cautious, positioning compared with Bitcoin.
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The gap between spot prices and max pain levels suggests that option sellers could benefit if prices remain suppressed into expiry. Meanwhile, traders holding directional bets may face losses if markets remain range-bound.
Notably, today’s expiring options are significantly lower than the $8.8 billion contracts that settled last Friday, because the January 30 event was for the month.
Institutions Hedge as Volatility Climbs
Nevertheless, analysts at Greeks.live say derivatives markets are showing clear signs of stress and repositioning, with volatility rising sharply and traders moving to protect portfolios.
“The $60,000 range [for Bitcoin] represents the consolidation zone prior to the Trump rally, where support remains relatively strong. Should a rapid dip occur in the short term, it may present a buying opportunity,” they wrote.
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According to the analysts, options data indicate institutions and large players are urgently hedging and placing bets.
Bitcoin’s current-month implied volatility (IV) has surged to 100%, doubling since the start of the year, while the main contracts’ IV has also breached 50%, climbing 15% over two weeks.
With skew at a two-year low, the experts say options market structure is now entirely dominated by bearish sentiment, though some lottery-style buying of deeply out-of-the-money options has emerged.
“The market currently exhibits excessive panic, and conditions for a sustained BTC crash remain insufficient. Rapid risk-off liquidation could actually facilitate a market rebound,” Greeks.live analysts wrote.
Indeed, the market is in panic mode, and with good reason, as the Bitcoin price steadily edges toward the $60,000 psychological level.
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The surge in implied volatility to 100% highlights the scale of uncertainty currently priced into Bitcoin markets, reflecting expectations of larger-than-normal price swings.
Expiry Could Reset Market Flows
Elsewhere, Deribit analysts note that options positioning is clustered around key strike levels, which may be influencing price behavior ahead of expiry.
“With protection demand already increasing and volatility repriced, this expiry could act as a short-term reset in dealer hedging flows. Expiry may remove positioning-related ‘gravity’ around big strikes, so price behavior after 08:00 UTC may differ from the days leading into expiry,” Deribit analysts stated.
The options expire at 08:00 UTC on Deribit. If those dynamics play out, markets could see increased volatility immediately after expiry as hedging flows unwind and liquidity conditions shift.
While bearish sentiment currently dominates derivatives positioning, panic-driven markets can sometimes produce sharp rebounds, particularly if large liquidations clear excess leverage.
The investment arm of stablecoin issuer Tether has acquired a $150 million stake in the precious metals platform Gold.com to expand access to tokenized gold.
Tether said on Thursday that it acquired an approximately 12% stake in the company, which will integrate Tether Gold (XAUt), its gold-backed cryptocurrency, into Gold.com’s platform.
Gold.com is a publicly listed online marketplace that sells gold and other precious metals, such as silver and platinum, to several markets, including the US.
“Gold has played a central role in preserving value for centuries, particularly during periods of monetary stress and geopolitical uncertainty,” said Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino. “Gold exposure is not a trade for Tether; it is a hedge and a long-term allocation to protect our user base and ourselves in a world that is becoming increasingly unstable.”
He added the company’s investment in Gold.com “reflects a long-term belief that gold should be as accessible, transferable, and usable as modern digital money, without compromising on physical backing or ownership.”
Tether explores stablecoin payments for gold
Tether and Gold.com are also exploring options to enable customers to purchase physical gold with Tether’s flagship stablecoin USDt (USDT) and its new stablecoin specifically for the US market, USAt (USAT), which it launched with crypto-native bank Anchorage Digital on Jan. 27.
Related: Bhutan makes second Bitcoin transfer in a week, worth $22M
Tether’s expanded gold offerings come as gold rallied more than 80% over the past 12 months to $5,600 on Jan. 29, before cooling off to $4,800 at the time of writing.
The partnership comes after Tether announced earlier on Thursday that it made a $100 million equity investment in Anchorage, a move that helps boost adoption of the USAt stablecoin in the US market as the bank looks to go public next year.
Tether reported a profit of $10 billion in 2025, earned mostly through interest on US Treasury holdings backing its $185.6 billion USDt reserve.
Magazine: South Korea gets rich from crypto… North Korea gets weapons
US equities rebounded as the S&P 500 climbed to $6,976, before correcting. Earlier in the week, the benchmark index closed just shy of its prior record before briefly moving higher in subsequent trading, while risk appetite in equities contrasted sharply with continued weakness across crypto markets.
At the same time, Bitcoin continued to underperform, with selling pressure accelerating as broader capital flows favored traditional risk assets. The divergence has become more pronounced in recent sessions, reinforcing the growing split between equity and crypto sentiment.
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AI Stocks and Small Caps Drive Equity Momentum
The latest leg higher in the S&P 500 was led by large-cap technology and semiconductor stocks, as investors rotated back into AI-linked names after a brief pause driven by valuation concerns.
Alphabet rose to a new record, Amazon advanced ahead of earnings, and chipmakers posted broad-based gains as demand expectations firmed.
Beneath the surface, market breadth also improved. Small-cap stocks outpaced megacaps, with the Russell 2000 gaining around 3% year-to-date.
That relative strength is often interpreted as a signal of confidence in domestic growth and has added support to broader stock market predictions that point to continued upside as long as earnings momentum holds.
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Earnings, Not Valuations, Now Anchor the Rally
Corporate results remain the central driver of the market’s advance. Analysts now expect S&P 500 companies to deliver close to 11% earnings growth for the December quarter, up sharply from estimates earlier in January.
More than 80% of reporting firms have exceeded expectations so far, according to FactSet data cited by market strategists.
Recent research suggests earnings growth has accounted for roughly 84% of total S&P 500 returns in the current cycle, marking a shift away from multiple expansion as the primary engine of gains. This transition has softened concerns around an AI-driven bubble, as profits and cash flow increasingly justify higher prices.
Macro Backdrop Keeps Risk Appetite Intact
The broader macro environment has so far supported equity risk-taking. US GDP growth remains near 3.3%, inflation trends are relatively contained, and productivity indicators have improved. Even political disruptions, including a federal government shutdown that delayed key data releases, failed to dent market confidence materially.
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Major US indices posted solid gains alongside the S&P 500, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising more than 1% YTD. But the Nasdaq Composite dropped roughly 2.6%.
Investors now look ahead to upcoming economic data and the Federal Reserve’s next policy signals for confirmation that financial conditions will remain supportive.
Bitcoin Weakness Highlights Cross-Market Divergence
While equities pushed higher, crypto markets moved in the opposite direction. Bitcoin price dropped below $65,000, marking its lowest level in roughly a year and extending a broader downtrend that has weighed on digital assets.
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The decline has come amid fading momentum, reduced speculative appetite, and capital rotation toward equities offering visible earnings growth.
The contrasting performance reflects a growing divergence between traditional risk assets and crypto, at least in the near term.
While both markets can benefit from liquidity-driven rallies, current conditions favor assets tied more directly to corporate profits.
Outlook
The S&P 500’s move to new highs reflects a rally increasingly grounded in earnings delivery rather than expanding valuations. AI investment, small-cap strength, and resilient macro data continue to support the upside case, even as record levels invite selective caution.
Bitcoin’s slide to a one-year low highlights where risk appetite is thinning, but for now, equity markets remain firmly in control of the broader risk narrative.
Kalshi, the federally regulated prediction market platform, announced a major expansion of its market surveillance and enforcement framework aimed at preventing insider trading and market manipulation across its platform.
Summary
- Kalshi has expanded its market surveillance framework to prevent insider trading and market manipulation on its regulated prediction markets platform.
- The company formed an independent Surveillance Advisory Committee and partnered with Solidus Labs to strengthen trade monitoring and enforcement.
- The move positions Kalshi as a compliance-focused alternative as prediction markets face growing regulatory and public scrutiny.
The updates were shared on February 5, 2026, as part of a broad initiative to boost trading integrity.
Kalshi tightens market surveillance
Founded in 2018, Kalshi established prediction markets as a regulated financial asset class in the United States. Unlike many offshore trading platforms, Kalshi operates under oversight from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), enforcing rules similar to those in traditional financial markets.
At the center of Kalshi’s announcement is the formation of an independent Surveillance Advisory Committee. The committee includes industry experts such as Lisa Pinheiro, Managing Principal at Analysis Group, and Daniel Taylor, Director of the Wharton Forensic Analytics Lab, known for his work on fraud and insider trading detection.
The group will review flagged trades, monitor investigations, and issue public quarterly reports on enforcement activity.
Kalshi also unveiled partnerships with Solidus Labs, a provider of advanced trade surveillance technology, and other market integrity advisors. The Solidus platform will augment Kalshi’s internal systems with deeper data analysis, helping detect sophisticated manipulation or suspicious trading patterns across more than 4,000 active markets.
The enhanced surveillance measures come amid growing scrutiny of prediction markets worldwide. Platforms like Polymarket have faced criticism and controversy over alleged insider advantage and market manipulation, leading lawmakers to consider new regulations targeting such practices.
The announcement also follows recent legal friction involving prediction markets more broadly. In Nevada, a state court recently declined to immediately block Coinbase’s prediction markets, which operate in partnership with Kalshi, after state regulators sought an emergency halt under gaming laws.
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