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Bitcoin Hashrate Dips After Iran Tensions; HOOD Down 16% This Month

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Crypto Breaking News

Geopolitics and energy constraints shaped Bitcoin’s landscape in March as a notable drop in hashrate coincided with a geopolitical flare-up tied to Iran. Analysts estimated Iran accounts for a meaningful slice of global mining activity, with some figures placing it around 6–8% of hashrate, while military-linked operations reportedly account for a large portion of mining. Following a late-February cross-border operation involving the United States and Israel, the network’s total hashrate slid about 6% over the month, underscoring how disruptions to energy infrastructure and competing strategic priorities can ripple into crypto production.

Against this backdrop, Bitcoin’s price movement remained muted. Bitcoin traded near the $67,000 level as five-year U.S. Treasury yields rose roughly 4% in March, sharpening a risk-off mood and encouraging cash preservation among traders. In parallel, the ecosystem’s appetite for crypto-native forecasting marketplaces surged, with March transactions on prediction platforms hitting a record pace of about 192 million—an uptick of 24% from February and a staggering 2,880% year over year, highlighting a growing, crypto-adjacent activity thread even as regulatory headwinds persist.

Beyond price and hashrate, drivers of liquidity shifted toward euro-denominated stablecoins. A March report found that euro-backed stablecoins now account for about 85% of non-dollar stablecoin transfer volume, with participation by users also concentrated in euros (roughly 78%). The shift is widely interpreted as institutional comfort with euro-pegged coins growing under the Markets in Crypto-Assets framework, which has elevated regulatory clarity for euro-focused crypto liquidity.

On the corporate side of the crypto economy, Robinhood’s stock price weakened in March, sliding about 16% as uncertainty around new regulatory regimes and softer crypto trading revenues weighed on sentiment. The company’s crypto business has faced headwinds in recent quarters, with reports indicating a notable year-over-year decline in crypto-related revenue and app volumes. In response, Robinhood announced a $1.5 billion stock buyback program to be executed over the next three years, a move aimed at bolstering investor confidence amid a broader market pullback.

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Within the alt-crypto strategies space, Strategy reported an 11% drawdown on its Bitcoin holdings for March, with an average entry cost near $75,669 and Bitcoin trading around $67,800 at the time of writing. Yet the firm pressed on with purchases, revealing two substantial Beaufort-style adds in March—about 17,994 BTC on March 9 and 22,337 BTC on March 16, totaling roughly $2.7 billion at the relevant prices. Financing these acquisitions, Strategy has leaned on high-yield stock issuances such as Stretch (STRC) to avoid diluting its primary common shares. Chairman Michael Saylor has highlighted that retail investors make up a large share of STRC buyers, framing the instruments as a way to access high-yield digital credit with relatively low volatility.

Key takeaways

  • Bitcoin’s hashrate declined about 6% in March, reflecting Iran’s pivotal yet strained role as a mining hub amid energy and security pressures following the February operation against Iran.
  • The BTC price hovered near $67,000 as five-year U.S. Treasury yields rose around 4% for the month, contributing to a cautious risk posture among traders.
  • Prediction markets posted a record March, with roughly 192 million transactions—up 24% from February and about 2,880% year over year—indicating rising interest in crypto-native forecasting tools.
  • Euro-stablecoins now dominate non-dollar liquidity, accounting for about 85% of non-dollar stablecoin transfer volume, with strong user participation, aided by MiCA-aligned regulatory clarity.
  • Robinhood’s stock weakness continued into March amid crypto-revenue headwinds, even as the firm advanced a sizable buyback. Strategy’s ongoing BTC accumulation remained sizable but came with an 11% month-long drawdown on holdings.

Hashrate, geopolitics, and the mining cliff

March’s mining dynamics underscored how geopolitical shocks can directly influence the security and economics of Bitcoin’s network. The U.S.–Israel operation in Iran, dubbed by some observers as a pivotal event for regional stability, coincided with a sustained drag on Iran’s mining capacity. Bloomberg’s crypto and digital assets coverage has highlighted Iran as a major mining contributor—estimated at roughly 6–8% of global hashrate—with a large portion of mining activity tied to state or military entities. When energy infrastructure is strained or redirected toward defense, the country’s ability to sustain large-scale Bitcoin mining tightens, creating ripples across the global hashrate figure and potentially affecting network difficulty and block times in the near term.

As miners contend with energy constraints and shifting priorities, the broader mining landscape remains sensitive to policy and geopolitical developments. The global network’s resilience, measured by hashrate, continues to reflect a balance between mining economics, energy costs, and regulatory conditions across jurisdictions. While the immediate impact is a modest hashrate pull for March, it is a reminder of how external forces ultimately shape Bitcoin’s security fabric and the distribution of mining power around the world.

Macro currents, markets, and the march of crypto demand

Bitcoin’s price path in March did not showcase a strong breakout even as macro conditions shifted. The yield curve’s repricing—five-year Treasuries climbing toward a 4% monthly gain—fed a preference for cash or less risky yield assets, weighing on new capital inflows into high-volatility assets like BTC. The combination of macro pressure, a cautious risk stance, and a sense of regulatory caution contributed to a lack of sustained upside for Bitcoin during the month. Yet, the same environment also drew attention to non-price-driven activity, such as prediction markets, where participants speculate on outcomes across events and often use these markets as hedges against broader macro risk. The March surge in such activity indicates a growing appetite for crypto-native financial primitives beyond spot and futures trading.

Stablecoins, MiCA, and strategic balance sheets

The euro-dominated stablecoin footprint—now representing about 85% of non-dollar stablecoin volume and a dominant share of participant activity—reflects a notable shift in liquidity preferences. The trend is closely tied to regulatory clarity introduced by the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets framework, which has elevated institutional comfort with euro-pegged tokens and cross-border use cases. Market participants point to MiCA as a catalyst for more predictable, compliant stablecoin operations, encouraging institutions to integrate euro-denominated liquidity into their crypto rails while reducing some of the regulatory ambiguities that previously constrained non-dollar activity.

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On the corporate side, Robinhood’s ongoing struggle with crypto trading revenue underscores the challenge of sustaining a diversified platform in a regulatory-tightening environment. The firm’s decision to deploy a $1.5 billion buyback program signals an attempt to shore up equity value despite a softening revenue trajectory. Meanwhile, Strategy’s Bitcoin program continues to reflect a high-stakes approach to crypto accumulation, funded through high-yield instruments that offer an alternate route to expand BTC holdings without diluting existing equity. The company’s commentary on STRC buyers—where a large portion are retail investors—frames a broader narrative about retail participation in crypto-linked structures and the perceived advantages of branded digital credit offerings in volatile markets.

What to watch next is how MiCA’s rollout further shapes non-dollar liquidity and whether tail risks—ranging from geopolitical shifts to regulatory changes—alter the trajectory of euro-stablecoins and related market activity. Additionally, with prediction markets facing ongoing regulatory scrutiny at the state and federal levels, observers will be watching for any concrete moves that could curb or clarify their role in the broader financial ecosystem.

Markets continue to react to a blend of macro signals, geopolitical developments, and evolving regulatory regimes. The coming weeks will be telling for Bitcoin’s leadership in a climate where liquidity, risk appetite, and institutional confidence are being recalibrated in near real time.

Readers should stay tuned for updates on Iran’s energy and mining dynamics, the pace of MiCA implementation and its practical impact on euro-denominated liquidity, and the evolving regulatory stance on prediction markets in U.S. states. These factors will help determine whether the current risk-off tone persists or shifts toward renewed crypto demand driven by macro reorientation and regulatory clarity.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Aave V4 Launches on Ethereum Mainnet

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Aave V4 Launches on Ethereum Mainnet


Announced at EthCC in Cannes, the upgrade enables institution-specific borrowing environments, structured credit products, and RWA-backed lending within a unified liquidity system.

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Australia passes crypto regulation requiring exchanges to obtain financial services licenses

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Australia passes crypto regulation requiring exchanges to obtain financial services licenses

Australia passed legislation on Wednesday, creating its first comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets that requires crypto exchanges and custody providers to obtain financial services licenses.

The Corporations Amendment (Digital Assets Framework) Bill 2025 cleared both houses on April 1, bringing firms that hold digital assets on behalf of customers into the existing Australian Financial Services Licence regime.

Australia’s bill creates two new regulated categories under the Corporations Act: digital asset platforms, which hold crypto on behalf of users, and tokenized custody platforms, which hold real-world assets and issue a corresponding digital token.

Operators of both must obtain an Australian Financial Services License from ASIC, bringing them under the same core rules as brokers or fund managers, including requirements to safeguard client assets, provide standardized disclosures, avoid misleading conduct, and maintain dispute resolution and compensation systems.

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Instead of regulating crypto itself, the law targets the companies in the middle that control customer funds, aiming to reduce risks like commingling, insolvency, and misuse of assets that have caused losses in past crypto failures.

Research from the Digital Finance Cooperative Research Center and industry groups estimates Australia could generate as much as A$24 billion annually from tokenized markets, payments, and digital assets, roughly 1% of GDP. Under the previous regulatory path, the country was on track to capture just A$1 Billion of that by 2030.

A Kraken spokesperson said the law provides a “top-down signal” that Australia is serious about digital assets, adding that clearer rules would give firms confidence to invest and expand locally.

Kate Cooper, CEO of OKX Australia and co-chair of the Digital Economy Council of Australia, called the bill a “pivotal moment,” saying it establishes a foundation for institutional participation and long-term capital allocation.

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Price of tungsten, sulfur and helium

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How the Iran war is squeezing metals markets and key industries

Almonty’s tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, in March 2026.

Almonty

BEIJING — The Iran war is squeezing a global commodities market already pressured by China’s export controls and stockpiling efforts.

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Prices of three niche elements — tungsten, sulfur and helium — have climbed sharply in recent weeks.

While none of the commodities are traded as widely as oil, the surge indicates how ripple effects from the Middle East conflict could end up restricting production of the semiconductors that power artificial intelligence advances.

Tungsten, a metal nearly as hard as a diamond, creates the electrical connection in the core of a semiconductor chip. Sulfuric acid, a byproduct of sulfur, cleans chip wafers. Helium enables smooth production of semiconductors since the gas prevents unwanted chemical reactions in the manufacturing process.

Those are just some of the ways in which the three elements have become critical for modern manufacturing, including for defense.

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Beijing started to ramp up its control over the critical supplies even before the Iran war started on Feb. 28, partly as tensions with the U.S. escalated over the last few years.

China started restricting tungsten exports just over a year ago, and in December called for tighter limits on sulfuric acid exports. Helium, a gas that’s difficult to store, saw the volume of Chinese imports rise by 15.7% in 2025, after a nearly 65% surge in 2024, according to Wind Information.

The Iran war and the ensuing constraints on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical Middle East shipping route for energy and chemicals, has tipped some oversupply situations into undersupply, while exacerbating existing shortages.

How the Iran war is squeezing metals markets and key industries

Prices of the three commodities have jumped in some cases by more than oil. The widely used fossil fuel has climbed by more than 50% in March, putting Brent on track for a record month.

“While the Chinese supply chain is being viewed as more resilient than many peers, the risk of disruption in chemicals as raw materials for manufacturers in selected segments is higher than expected based on the feedback,” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a report late last week, citing nearly 40 commodity-related meetings and site visits in China.

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Tungsten

Tungsten hit a record high of over $3,000 late last week, marking a surge of well over 50% for the month and more than tripling in price since late December. That’s based on the industry benchmark called “ammonium para tungstate (APT)” in metric ton units, or MTU, from Fastmarket, as quoted by tungsten miner Almonty.

Almonty officially reopened a large tungsten mine in Sangdong, South Korea, earlier this month, and plans to start producing some tungsten this year at a project in the U.S. state of Montana.

The company’s CEO Lewis Black told CNBC that defense sector demand for tungsten has been “extremely strong” since the beginning of last year, but that there’s been no notable change despite the Iran war.

“There’s no material to stockpile. That’s probably the biggest change,” he said.

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Sulfur

The price of sulfuric acid in Africa is now at least 30% higher than it was prior to the war, and is still rising, the Goldman Sachs analysts said, citing a local Chinese miner in Africa.

Other assessments point to a milder rise in prices.

China sulfur prices, including cost and freight, climbed by about 13% from early March to $621 per tonne as of March 26, according to S&P Global Platts.

“A 2-3 month effective blockade would likely become a severe supply shock, especially as freight/insurance stay elevated and Middle East-origin cargoes become harder to execute,” Pan Yuya, lead analyst for sulfur and phosphate raw materials at S&P Global Energy, and Isaac Zhao, senior principal analyst, China fertilizers at S&P Global Energy, said in a March 20 note.

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The S&P analysts said that around 56% of China’s sulfur imports came from the Middle East in 2025.

“Even prior to the Middle East conflict, sulfur prices were rising sharply as the market tightened. With sulfur prices now at fresh record highs, the ‘super squeeze’ in this rather obscure commodity in supply warrants further examination,” HSBC analysts said in a March 16 report.

Helium

Helium prices have roughly doubled since the Iran war began, according to Fitch Ratings.

As most trading occurs through long-term private contracts between industrial gas suppliers and manufacturers, it is difficult to pinpoint industry-wide prices, said Shelley Jang, Fitch’s director of Asia-Pacific corporate ratings.

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Iranian missile attacks this month crippled a key industrial center in Qatar, which produces about one-third of the world’s helium.

That implies helium supply won’t be restored anytime soon, pointed out Christopher Ecclestone, principal and mining strategist at Hallgarten & Company.

In one indication of further market tightness, prices of helium in China’s Henan province have reversed a downturn this year to climb from a Feb. 28 low of 545 yuan ($78.85) a bottle to 600 yuan ($86.81), according to Wind Information.

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Shortages caused by the Iran war are the latest supply chain disruption to rock global markets, which faced similar shocks from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the Covid-19 pandemic. That’s pushed companies to diversify, and countries such as China to ramp up stockpiling plans.

“Access to supplies of certain physical materials where production and processing is concentrated in China will become more frequent topics of negotiations with Beijing,” Rhodium Group said in a March 24 report.

Limited price transparency also means the shortage could be worse than available numbers suggest.

Tungsten and helium prices have been surging, “but you don’t have anyone on the buy side saying, ‘oh my goodness, we don’t have enough product,’” Ecclestone said. “Defense contractors should have warehouses of tungsten, but they don’t.”

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“The world has got lazy. It thinks life is like a supermarket, the product is a pack of cornflakes or a few tons of sulfuric acid,” he said. “The supermarket of commodities has had a few of the aisles chopped down.”

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Valinor Raises $25M Seed Round to Bring Private Credit Onchain

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Valinor Raises $25M Seed Round to Bring Private Credit Onchain


The ex-Blackstone team wants to move beyond crypto-collateralized loans and into ‘real economy credit’ as the tokenized RWA sector continues to grow.

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Fidelity says Bitcoin’s Cycle Drawdown is the Mildest Yet

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Fidelity says Bitcoin’s Cycle Drawdown is the Mildest Yet

Bitcoin has declined by about 50% this market cycle, far less than in previous cycles, Fidelity Digital Assets said, adding this trend could continue over time. 

Bitcoin’s post-all-time-high drawdowns have historically been steep, at about 80% to 90%, but this cycle has been about 50%, Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst Zack Wainwright said Tuesday.

One can see the “diminishing returns” that have developed from cycle to cycle when looking at Bitcoin’s price performance from the perspective of the previous all-time high, he said.

“Each cycle has been less dramatic to the upside than the previous,” he said. “Downside risk has been less dramatic in 2026, the current cycle, as well,” he added. 

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Bitcoin’s price hit its current cycle low of just over $60,000 on Feb. 6, a decline of 52% from its Oct. 6 all-time high of about $126,000, according to TradingView. It is currently down 46% from its peak six months ago. 

The previous cycle saw a much larger decline of 77%, from the 2021 all-time high of $69,000 to a bear market low just below $16,000 in November 2022. 

Bitcoin may bottom in late September

Fidelity’s assessment that this Bitcoin cycle is notably shallower than prior cycles “indicates a maturing market with reduced volatility and stronger institutional confidence,” Nick Ruck, director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph on Wednesday. 

“This shift signals that Bitcoin is changing from a speculative asset toward a more stable store of value, potentially paving the way for greater adoption in the future.”

Related: Bitcoin’s $10K range expected to hold until spot traders show up: Data

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Meanwhile, Alphractal founder Joao Wedson observed Tuesday that Bitcoin’s top occurred 534 days after the last halving, a shorter span than in the previous cycle.

This “decaying pattern” across cycles suggests the historical bottom may occur between 912 and 922 days after the halving, which “points to a bottom in late September or early October 2026,” he said. 

BTC is below key daily moving averages 

Bitcoin remains below the key 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, two long-term trend indicators. 

It is hovering at the 200-week EMA, around $68,000, which has served as a key level of support during previous market downturns. 

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BTC remains below key daily moving averages. Source: TradingView

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