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Bitcoin heads into holiday weekend exposed as ETF and CME flows go offline

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Bitcoin heads into holiday weekend exposed as ETF and CME flows go offline

Bitcoin is trading choppily around $66,600, as the extended holiday weekend sidelines potential buyers and gives bears greater control over price action.

With CME futures and ETF flows set to pause over Good Friday, the market is heading into a liquidity gap just as its most reliable source of support is already weakening.

Bitcoin’s $65,000 support is starting to look fragile as the market’s most active buyers turn out to be its most macro-dependent. In a recent report, CryptoQuant data show 30-day apparent demand at about -63,000 BTC, even as ETF and corporate purchases climb to multi-month highs, while Singapore-based market maker Enflux told CoinDesk in a note that the price floor is “partly underwritten by rate-cut expectations.”

ETF purchases rose to roughly 50,000 BTC over the past 30 days, the highest since October 2025, while Strategy accumulated about 44,000 BTC over the same period. Yet overall demand remained negative, with selling from other participants overwhelming those inflows.

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The pressure is most visible among large holders, CryptoQuant wrote in a recent report. Wallets holding 1,000 to 10,000 BTC have flipped to net distribution, with their one-year balance change dropping to about negative 188,000 BTC from a positive 200,000 BTC at the 2024 cycle peak. Mid-sized holders have also slowed accumulation sharply, while the Coinbase Premium has remained negative, signaling weak U.S. spot demand.

The result is a market where rising institutional activity does not translate into stronger price support. As more capital shifts toward ETF wrappers and regulated futures markets, bitcoin is increasingly priced through macro-sensitive positioning such as hedging and allocation shifts rather than broad-based spot accumulation.

That positioning is now being tested by inflation data, Enflux wrote. The ISM prices-paid index jumped to 78.3 in March, its highest since June 2022, undermining expectations for near-term rate cuts. Enflux said the repricing has already begun to show up in flows, with $296 million in net ETF outflows during the week of March 24 and muted inflows in early April.

The long weekend removes a key stabilizer. With CME closed and ETF creation and redemption paused, the institutional bid that has increasingly anchored bitcoin’s price will be largely absent, leaving trading to spot markets where selling pressure has been most persistent.

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CryptoQuant said any relief rally could face resistance between roughly $71,500 and $81,200, levels that have capped prior rebounds in the current bear-market structure.

The broader test comes with U.S. inflation data on April 9. If March core PCE exceeds February’s 3.1%, rate-cut expectations could fade further, strengthening bearish case in bitcoin.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin Supply in Profit and Loss Closer to 2022 Bear Market Levels

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Bitcoin Supply in Profit and Loss Closer to 2022 Bear Market Levels

The amount of Bitcoin supply in profit and loss is now getting closer to levels typical of a bear market, according to a CryptoQuant analyst.

There are currently about 11.2 million Bitcoin (BTC) in profit. The previous bear market recorded 9 million BTC in profit at its lowest point, CryptoQuant analyst “Darkfost” said Thursday. 

CryptoQuant data also shows there are about 8.2 million Bitcoin at a loss, with Glassnode data confirming it’s at levels not seen since late 2022. 

“This is quite significant, considering that during the last bear market this figure reached about 10.6 million BTC,” Darkfost said. 

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Analysts have been debating whether Bitcoin has further to fall this year amid growing global turmoil. Bitcoin metrics that show a movement toward previous cycle lows could suggest that a market bottom is getting closer. 

“This suggests that the market is reaching a notable level of undervaluation, comparable to the conditions observed during the previous bear market,” the analyst added. 

Bitcoin in profit and loss at bear market lows. Source: CryptoQuant 

Analyst sees increasing market stress, not undervaluation 

However, Andri Fauzan Adziima, research lead at the Bitrue exchange, argued the data signals “increasing market stress, not immediate undervaluation.”

True capitulation bottoms saw deeper pain, he told Cointelegraph. The supply in loss in 2022 was greater than 50% and the supply in profit was around 45% or lower, while metrics such as net unrealized profit/loss (NUPL) and market value to realized value ratio (MVRV) were at “extremes.”

“Current data points to early/mid-bear transition (potential structural bottom near $55,000), with more downside or consolidation likely before a full reset.”

Related: Bitcoin’s drawdown is ‘less dramatic’ this cycle, Fidelity says

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Data also shows Bitcoin has declined by about 52% from its all-time high this cycle, much less than previous bear markets, which saw 77% to 84% drawdowns from their cycle highs. 

Strong dollar hampering recovery 

Bitcoin author Timothy Peterson commented on X that Bitcoin “tends to struggle when the dollar is strong, and the Chinese yuan is weak.”

He added that this was due to tighter global liquidity, with higher dollar yields attracting capital into cash and bonds and cautious investor sentiment as China eases policy.

That only changes when US interest rates fall and “dollar yield loses its attractiveness,” which is not likely until the second half of 2026 or more likely 2027, he said. 

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The US dollar index (DXY) has gained about 5% over the past two months, according to TradingView. 

DXY has strengthened since late January. Source: TradingView

Magazine: Your guide to surviving this mini-crypto winter