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Bitcoin holds above $70K support as geopolitical tensions weigh on market sentiment

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What to expect with Bitcoin prices as Israel and US intesify Iran strikes
What to expect with Bitcoin prices as Israel and US intesify Iran strikes

Key takeaways

  • BTC is down 1% in the last 24 hours and is now trading below $71,000.
  • The ongoing geopolitical tensions and the inflation fears continue to weigh on market sentiments. 

Bitcoin (BTC) is starting the week on shaky ground, hovering near the critical $70,700 support level on Monday. A decisive break below this zone could open the door to a broader correction. 

Geopolitical tensions dent risk appetite

The primary catalyst behind the poor performance is the geopolitical tension between the United States and Iran. 

Efforts to reach a resolution between the United States and Iran ended without progress, following talks in Pakistan that failed to produce a ceasefire agreement. US Vice President JD Vance described the proposal as a final offer, which Iran rejected, with state media citing excessive demands.

Furthermore, US President Donald Trump announced plans for a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, threatening to disrupt a fragile ceasefire. At the same time, ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon has heightened fears of a wider regional escalation.

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Macroeconomic pressures are also limiting Bitcoin’s upside. Fresh data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics showed inflation accelerating sharply, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.9% in March—its fastest monthly increase in four years. On an annual basis, inflation climbed to 3.3%, up from 2.4% in February.

The data has prompted investors to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, reinforcing a more hawkish outlook. 

Despite the current market conditions, institutional demand provided a degree of support last week. Data from SoSoValue shows spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows of $786.31 million, building on modest gains from the prior week. 

If the institutional inflow increases, it could help stabilize prices and potentially drive a rebound in the near term.

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Bitcoin price outlook: BTC approaches a crucial support level

The BTC/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient as Bitcoin is approaching a crucial support level. 

Bitcoin recently found support near its 200-week exponential moving average around $68,100 and posted a modest weekly gain. As of Monday, BTC is trading just above $70,700.

If bullish momentum builds, Bitcoin could target a move toward $74,500, which marks its 2025 yearly low. Indicators suggest early signs of stabilization, with the Relative Strength Index trending upward and the MACD signaling a bullish crossover on the weekly chart.

BTC/USD 4H Chart

However, Bitcoin continues to face resistance from key moving averages, including the 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day levels.

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If the daily candle closes above the 50-day EMA near $70,700, it could open the path toward $72,500 and beyond. 

On the downside, failure to hold this level could see BTC slide toward the $65,800 support zone.

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ECB Backs ESMA-Led Crypto Supervision in EU: Tighter MiCA Enforcement Incoming

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ECB Backs ESMA-Led Crypto Supervision in EU: Tighter MiCA Enforcement Incoming

The European Central Bank (ECB) has formally backed a proposal to transfer crypto-asset service provider supervision to the European Securities and Markets Authority – a move that would collapse 27 fragmented national licensing regimes into a single Paris-based enforcement framework.

The ECB’s opinion, issued in response to the European Commission’s 2025 capital markets package (COM/2025/941, 942, 943), positions ESMA as the direct supervisor of systemically relevant crypto-asset service providers across the EU.

The push is already drawing resistance from member states that built their regulatory infrastructure – and licensing revenue – around MiCA’s national competent authority model.

Ireland, Luxembourg, and Malta have emerged as preferred crypto licensing jurisdictions under the current framework. Centralized ESMA oversight would strip that competitive advantage overnight.

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The question isn’t whether the ECB wants this. It clearly does. The question is whether the Commission’s capital markets package can survive the member state resistance long enough to make it law.

Key Takeaways:
  • ECB Position: The ECB formally supports transferring CASP supervision from national competent authorities to ESMA under the Commission’s 2025 capital markets package.
  • MiCA Impact: Centralized ESMA oversight would replace 27 national enforcement regimes with a single authority, eliminating licensing arbitrage across EU jurisdictions.
  • ECB Institutional Ask: The ECB is requesting non-voting membership on ESMA’s new Executive Board for CASP-related discussions, plus direct data access and risk-sensitive own-funds requirements for crypto firms.
  • Stablecoin Exposure: The ECB is pushing caps on e-money tokens used as settlement assets absent central bank money – a direct constraint on euro-pegged stablecoin scale.
  • Timeline: MiCA transitional periods expire in Q1 2026; ESMA’s expanded remit, if adopted, would likely phase in alongside EBA significance assessments running concurrently.
  • Licensing Hub Risk: Member states with established crypto licensing ecosystems face loss of supervisory jurisdiction and competitive differentiation if ESMA centralization passes.
  • Watch: Commission negotiations on the 2025 capital markets package – any concession on ESMA’s direct authority signals the centralization push is losing political momentum.

Discover: Top Crypto Presales to Watch This Month

What Does ECB ESMA-Led Supervision Actually Change for Exchanges and Crypto Stablecoin Issuers Operating Across the EU?

Under the current MiCA architecture, crypto-asset service providers obtain authorization from their home member state’s national competent authority – then passport that authorization across the EU. The model mirrors how traditional financial firms operate under MiFID II.

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On paper, it delivers single-market access. In practice, it creates enforcement asymmetry: a CASP licensed in a jurisdiction with light-touch NCA oversight faces materially different compliance pressure than one licensed in a stricter regime, even though both carry EU-wide passporting rights.

ESMA-led direct supervision eliminates that gap. Exchanges above a defined systemic threshold would report to ESMA rather than their home NCA – meaning enforcement standards, inspection frequency, and penalty structures become uniform regardless of where a firm chose to incorporate.

Source: ECB

ESMA already maintains a public register of ART and EMT issuers and holds authority to operate a crypto blacklist for non-compliant CASPs. Direct supervisory power over major CASPs extends that remit from registry maintenance to active enforcement. That’s a fundamentally different institutional role.

For stablecoin issuers specifically, the ECB’s push for caps on e-money tokens as settlement assets – absent central bank money – adds a second layer of constraint. Significant EMT issuers already trigger EBA oversight at €5 billion in reserves or 10 million users.

An ECB-backed settlement cap would impose volume limits on top of those thresholds, regardless of EBA significance status. Major exchanges operating large-scale stablecoin settlement – including Binance and OKX, whose reserve disclosures have drawn sustained market scrutiny – face direct exposure to that constraint if it reaches final rulemaking.

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Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

Why Is the ECB Pushing This Now – and What Does Its Institutional Ask Reveal?

The ECB’s opinion wasn’t spontaneous. The European Commission released three legislative proposals in late 2025 – COM/2025/941, 942, and 943 – designed to deepen the Capital Markets Union by expanding ESMA’s direct powers over systemically important CCPs, CSDs, CASPs, and trading venues.

The ECB’s formal response to that package is where the ESMA backing landed, alongside a specific institutional request: non-voting membership on ESMA’s new Executive Board for discussions covering crypto-asset service providers.

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Photo: ECB

That request matters. Non-voting board membership gives the ECB a standing seat in ESMA’s supervisory deliberations without requiring legislative expansion of ECB authority.

It’s a mechanism for monetary policy influence over crypto supervision without formal jurisdictional overlap – and it signals the ECB views CASP activity as directly relevant to monetary stability, not just financial market integrity.

The ECB also flagged staffing explicitly, warning that ESMA needs “adequate staffing and financial resources” to absorb expanded supervisory responsibilities without operational strain.

That’s not a platitude. ESMA’s January 2025 statement pushing NCAs to enforce restrictions on non-MiCA-compliant ART and EMT issuers by end of Q1 2025 already tested the authority’s coordination capacity.

Adding direct CASP supervision without headcount expansion would stress the same institutional infrastructure. This regulatory trajectory mirrors what’s unfolding elsewhere – Japan’s reclassification of crypto under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act reflects the same global pattern: major jurisdictions moving crypto from payment-adjacent frameworks into full securities-style oversight with direct supervisory teeth.

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Middle East on edge as Trump’s Iran blockade begins and oil jumps above $100

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‘Tariffs’ chatter surges after Trump’s announcement on global exports

Trump’s new naval blockade of Iranian ports at the Strait of Hormuz has sent Brent and WTI back above $100, sparked Iranian threats against Gulf ports, and knocked Bitcoin off weekend highs as traders reprice energy and geopolitical risk.

Summary

  • The US has begun a naval blockade of Iranian ports along the Strait of Hormuz after talks in Islamabad collapsed.
  • Iran has threatened to strike Gulf ports in retaliation, as global benchmark crude pushes back above $100 per barrel.
  • Shipping and energy officials warn the move risks breaching maritime law and deepening the world’s energy crisis.

A US naval blockade of Iranian ports along the Strait of Hormuz began on Monday after weekend talks between Washington and Tehran in Islamabad failed to produce a deal, sending oil back above $100 a barrel and rattling global markets. US Central Command said the embargo covers “the entirety of the Iranian coastline” and will apply to all vessels “regardless of flag” entering or exiting Iranian ports, while allowing ships transiting the strait between non‑Iranian ports to pass.

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Tehran responded by threatening to hit “Gulf ports” in retaliation for what it has called an “illegal” attempt to choke its economy, raising the risk of direct strikes on regional energy infrastructure. In a message to Gulf neighbours reported by the Wall Street Journal, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps warned it would “take measures to deny America and its allies access to oil and gas resources in the region for years” if attacks on its soil escalate.

Oil prices surged on news of the blockade, with US West Texas Intermediate futures for May jumping 8% to about $104.40 per barrel and Brent crude for June climbing more than 7% to around $102 per barrel on Sunday evening. Barron’s reported that Brent was up 7.5% and WTI 8% after US‑Iran talks collapsed, while Yahoo Finance noted US crude “surged past $100” as traders priced in the risk of prolonged disruption to Persian Gulf exports.

The head of the International Maritime Organization, Arsenio Dominguez, criticised the move, telling journalists “countries do not have the right to blockade an international strait that is used for international navigation,” and warning that “additional restrictive measures don’t really help us” de‑escalate the crisis. He added that “shipping continues to be used as collateral,” and said he “needed more details” on how the blockade would affect commercial traffic.

Market commentators fear the shock could get worse if the blockade lasts or widens. On CNBC, Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute warned that “taking more oil off the market — particularly the only oil that is now getting out from the Persian Gulf — will drive oil prices further up … [to] around $150 per barrel” if the disruption deepens.

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The blockade comes after Iran’s earlier threats to strike oil and gas platforms across the Middle East and follows a period in which Brent crude had already surged as much as 60% in March on the back of Hormuz‑related disruptions, according to analysis cited by Modern Diplomacy. With roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows normally transiting the Strait of Hormuz, energy traders now face a scenario where the world’s most critical chokepoint is both militarised and politicised, and where a miscalculation in the Gulf could quickly translate into sharper inflation and financial stress far beyond the region.

Crypto prices respond to blockage of Strait

In the two hours since the blockade formally came into effect, crypto markets have traded like any other macro risk asset: lower, but orderly rather than in full‑blown panic. Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped back toward the $70,500–$71,000 range after briefly trading near $74,000 over the weekend, with Investing.com putting it around $71,022 at 02:30 ET and CryptoRank noting an intraday low near $70,570 as oil spiked above $103.

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Strategy Adds 13,927 Bitcoin, Boosts Holdings to 780,897

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Strategy Adds 13,927 Bitcoin, Boosts Holdings to 780,897

Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the world’s largest public holder of Bitcoin (BTC), added a large haul of Bitcoin to its stash last week, edging toward 800,000 BTC in total holdings.

Strategy acquired 13,927 Bitcoin for $1 billion between April 6 and 12, according to an 8-K filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission on Monday.

The purchases were made at an average price of $71,902 per coin, marking another purchase below the company’s average acquisition price of $75,577.

Strategy now holds 780,897 BTC on its balance sheet, acquired for a total cost of $59.02 billion. The company has 19,103 BTC left to reach 800,000 BTC after buying more than 107,000 BTC so far this year.

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Source: SEC

Purchases funded with Strategy’s STRC ATM

According to the filing, the $1 billion in purchases were funded via proceeds from Strategy’s perpetual preferred equity, Stretch (STRC).

The company sold 10 million STRC shares last week, generating around $1 billion in notional value and net proceeds. No shares were sold for STRF, STRK, STRD or MSTR stock during the period.

Source: SEC

According to STRC.live, STRC recorded its second-largest weekly issuance on record last week, nearly three times the four-week average. The equity has seen record share sales in recent weeks after Strategy amended its sales rules in early March.

Saylor teased the latest purchase in an X post on Sunday, sharing a chart of Strategy’s Bitcoin purchase history showing 105 acquisitions since 2020, a pattern often seen ahead of new BTC buys.

Source: Michael Saylor

Strategy’s aggressive Bitcoin buying comes despite the company sitting on significant unrealized losses on its holdings. Last week, Strategy reported its unrealized losses on digital assets amounted to $14.46 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

Apart from Strategy, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also seen significant buying last week, with spot Bitcoin ETFs seeing inflows of $786 million over the period.

Related: Institutions are in a crypto bull market as retail sits out: Exodus CEO

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Crypto markets rallied early last week following a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, with Bitcoin reclaiming $70,000 and briefly surging past $73,000, according to CoinGecko.

Nomura’s Laser Digital told Cointelegraph that Strategy’s buying was among the key signals supporting the move, alongside strong inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. The firm added that US equities also returned to pre-conflict levels, reinforcing broader market momentum.

“However, the weekend talks didn’t go well — no agreement was made and the latest announcement of a naval blockade from April 13 triggered a sharp pullback towards $71,000,” Laser Digital said, adding that the company expects this erratic price movement to continue until the last minute of the ceasefire deadline.

Magazine: Your guide to surviving this mini-crypto winter

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