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Bitcoin holds below $80,000 as January prediction contracts miss liquidation-driven slide: Asia Morning Briefing

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Bitcoin holds below $80,000 as January prediction contracts miss liquidation-driven slide: Asia Morning Briefing

Good Morning, Asia. Here’s what’s making news in the markets:

Welcome to Asia Morning Briefing, a daily summary of top stories during U.S. hours and an overview of market moves and analysis. For a detailed overview of U.S. markets, see CoinDesk’s Crypto Daybook Americas.

Bitcoin’s latest slide exposed a familiar pattern in crypto markets: probability gauges drifted lower while derivatives traders scrambled for protection. As options open interest in $75,000 puts surged and hundreds of millions in long bets were liquidated, prediction markets registered only a slow erosion of upside conviction.

Throughout January, Polymarket contracts tied to higher bitcoin price targets softened gradually through late January, yet they never implied the kind of abrupt volatility that ultimately erased hundreds of millions of dollars in leveraged long positions in a single day.

The miss is rooted more in structure than in oversight. Prediction markets are built around end states. A contract asking whether bitcoin will finish the month above a certain level does not reward traders for correctly anticipating a two-day leverage flush if they still believe a rebound is possible before expiry. The payoff depends on the final destination, not the speed or violence of the path. In that setup, short-term volatility can be rationally ignored.

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Research from Galaxy Digital has argued that directional prediction markets inherently compress complex beliefs into binary outcomes, often overstating consensus and obscuring magnitude and tail risk.

Derivatives desks operate under the opposite incentives. Data from Deribit showed open interest in $75,000 put options swelling rapidly, as CoinDesk previously reported, nearly matching the once dominant $100,000 call strike within days.

That shift did not necessarily signal a long-term bearish turn. It reflected traders buying insurance as downside distributions widened and volatility expectations jumped. Options markets are forced to react early because capital is immediately exposed to tail risk.

Liquidation data explains why the divergence became visible so quickly. More than $500 Million in leveraged long positions were forcibly closed over 24 hours – a weekend when liquidity was thin, and TradFi traders weren’t at their desks – with the bulk of selling concentrated on perpetual futures venues where margin dynamics accelerate moves.

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For a leveraged fund, that is an urgent event. For a month-end probability contract, it is decisive only if it changes the belief about the final outcome.

In its 2025 year-end review, research firm QCP has described crypto as operating at two speeds, where structural optimism coexists with sudden leverage-driven drawdowns.

Bitcoin didn’t crash below $75,000, but it didn’t recover to the levels prediction markets suggested were likely, either. The final outcome split the difference and in doing so, revealed how differently these markets measure the same underlying risk.

Market Movement

BTC: Bitcoin traded just under $80,000 after a week of sharp volatility that flushed leveraged long positions and pushed traders toward downside protection rather than fresh upside bets.

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ETH: Ether hovered near $2,300, extending its multi-week slide as risk appetite stayed muted and traders showed little urgency to rotate back into large-cap altcoins.

Gold: Gold was trading around $4,750 per ounce, pulling back sharply after testing the $5,300 level earlier in the week.

Nikkei 225: Japan’s Nikkei 225 inched higher Monday as Asia Pacific markets traded mixed, with investors weighing private data showing China’s January factory activity expanding at its fastest pace since October, while South Korean and Hong Kong equities fell and gold extended its recent losses.

Elsewhere in Crypto

  • Crypto exchanges sanctioned alongside Iranian officials in Trump administration’s Iran crackdown (The Block)
  • Quantum threat gets real: Ethereum Foundation prioritizes security with leanVM and PQ signatures (CoinDesk)

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Crypto World

The Future Of Institutional Crypto Runs Through Prime Brokerages

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The Future Of Institutional Crypto Runs Through Prime Brokerages

Opinion by: Dominic Lohberger, chief product officer at Sygnum.

Counterparty risk in crypto markets has always moved in cycles. Exchanges default or get hacked. Standards tighten for a while. Then, complacency quietly returns as losses are forgotten. 

What is happening this time is different. 

Leading traditional finance players entering crypto must adopt practices from established financial markets. For the first time, the infrastructure exists to enable them to do so. They can mirror assets held with regulated custodians onto trading venues without ever depositing on-exchange. 

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This is a lasting change in how serious money actually moves through digital assets.

The separation of powers

Consider the mergers and acquisitions deal flow. Ripple deployed $1.25 billion to acquire Hidden Road. Hidden Road is a global multi-asset prime broker. This was the largest acquisition in crypto history. It signalled that institutional trading infrastructure is where value will concentrate. 

Standard Chartered is building a crypto prime brokerage under its venture arm. These are infrastructure bets by firms that see where the market is heading.

For most of crypto’s history, exchanges have played every role at once. From trading venues, custodians and clearing houses, exchanges played them all. That conflation of roles was a necessity in Bitcoin’s earliest days. It was never going to survive institutional adoption at scale. The FTX collapse made that risk glaring, and the $1.4 billion Bybit hack reinforced it. The broader patterns of 2025 showed where counterparty exposure became a first-order operational risk. That’s where the separation of custody from execution became a baseline institutional requirement.

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In traditional finance, this separation of powers is a bedrock principle. Crypto is finally catching up. A growing number of regulated off-exchange custody solutions now make this possible in practice. They allow institutions to hold assets with a custodian while trading on exchanges, with balances mirrored and settlement automated. Capital efficiency and security no longer have to be traded off against each other. Most market makers, hedge funds and OTC desks use some form of off-exchange custody. What was once considered a cost has become a basic pillar of risk management.

Two models, with different trade-offs

The market now offers two distinct approaches to removing exchange counterparty risk, and they solve different problems.

Off-exchange custody, sometimes called tri-party arrangements, allows traders to hold assets with a third-party custodian while receiving a mirrored balance on the exchange. If the custodian holds those assets segregated and off-balance-sheet, counterparty risk is eliminated. These setups tend to be cost-efficient because the custodian does not need to deploy its own balance sheet.

Prime brokerage is operationally richer. A prime broker acts as an intermediary and offers unified onboarding across exchanges, cross-venue net settlement and leverage. These are critical for market makers running strategies across dozens of venues. That active role means counterparty risk shifts from the exchange to the prime broker. In traditional finance, that risk is backstopped by investment banks with massive balance sheets. In crypto, the largest prime brokers are growing but still carry comparatively modest balance sheets. They’re capable and well-connected, but not yet at the scale of globally systematically relevant investment banks. Some institutional clients are comfortable with that trade-off. 

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The collateral economics that changed the conversation

The part of this shift that deserves equal attention is how collateral now works. When a custodian is a bank, it can accept traditional financial instruments as collateral, and that changes the economics. An institutional client holding short-dated US Treasurys can pledge them as collateral, mirrored onto an exchange at full loan-to-value. The T-bills never leave the custodian. The custody fees are a mere fraction of the yield this provides. The client earns a net positive return on collateral that protects them from exchange default.

Related: BitGo launches portfolio-based crypto lending platform for institutions

The vast majority of collateral deployed in bank-grade off-exchange custody structures today is in T-bills. When counterparty protection generates yield instead of costing money, the adoption question flips from “should we de-risk?” to “why are we leaving yield on the table?” The exception is strategies like the basis trade, where the client must pledge the underlying asset itself. Even there, holding crypto with an independent custodian reduces the risk surface.

What comes next

The eligible collateral story is expanding fast. Stablecoins are already accepted across multiple off-exchange setups. Tokenized money market funds that accrue yield continuously in real-time are next. The direction is toward multi-asset collateral frameworks that allow institutions to shift margin between venues and ensure security. In crypto, that reallocation can happen in near real-time around the clock.

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In the months ahead, more global systemically important banks will enter off-exchange custody. This will rapidly widen the range of accepted collateral. As both models mature, custodians may add more operational tooling. Prime brokers will strengthen their custody frameworks. This will continue until the distinction matters less than the outcome. That outcome is institutional-grade risk management.

The crypto industry spent the better part of a decade debating whether institutions would arrive. They have, and they are not adapting to crypto’s infrastructure. Crypto’s infrastructure is adapting to them. The firms that recognise this shift and build accordingly will define the next era of digital asset markets. The ones that don’t will be left managing yesterday’s risk with yesterday’s tools.

Opinion by: Dominic Lohberger, chief product officer at Sygnum.