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Bitcoin Investors Should Watch These US Economic Signals

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This Week's Major US Economic Reports & Fed Speakers

Bitcoin traders are heading into a macro-heavy week, with four US economic events expected to shape sentiment across crypto markets.

With Bitcoin trading in a volatile range and macro narratives dominating market psychology, traders are increasingly treating economic releases as short-term catalysts that can trigger sharp moves in both directions.

Which US Economic Signals Should Bitcoin and Crypto Investors Watch This Week?

A Federal Reserve (Fed) governor’s media appearance, key labor-market data, weekly unemployment claims, and January inflation figures could all influence expectations around interest rates and liquidity—two of the strongest drivers of Bitcoin’s price cycles.

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This Week's Major US Economic Reports & Fed Speakers
This Week’s Major US Economic Reports & Fed Speakers. Source: MarketWatch

Fed Governor Stephen Miran Interview in Focus

Markets will first look to comments from Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran, who is scheduled to appear in a podcast interview on Monday, February 9. Ahead of the 5:00 p.m. ET. appearance, there is already mixed sentiment across the crypto community, especially amid broader market caution.  

Some market participants point to Miran’s relatively constructive view on stablecoins, arguing that regulatory clarity and dollar-linked digital assets could indirectly support Bitcoin by strengthening the broader crypto ecosystem and institutional participation.

Others see risk. Speculation that Miran could play a larger role in future Fed leadership has already coincided with bouts of volatility in both precious metals and crypto. This reflects fears that tighter policy could weigh on inflation-hedge narratives.

At the same time, some macro analysts have described Miran as more dovish than many of his peers, citing past arguments in favor of substantial rate cuts to support the labor market.

Any signals in that direction could lift sentiment in risk assets, particularly Bitcoin, which remains highly sensitive to liquidity expectations.

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US Employment Report Could Drive “Bad News Is Good News” Narrative

Attention will shift on Wednesday, February 11, to the US employment report, one of the most closely watched indicators of economic health and monetary-policy direction.

Forecasts suggest relatively modest job growth, potentially reaching 55,000 from the previous 50,000. Weaker-than-expected data could paradoxically support Bitcoin. Cooling labor conditions would increase pressure on the Fed to ease policy, potentially improving liquidity conditions for risk assets.

Recent labor-market indicators have already pointed to signs of slowing. Reports of rising layoffs and a slowdown in hiring have strengthened expectations that rate cuts could arrive sooner than previously anticipated.

Interest Rate Cut Probabilities
Interest Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

However, the employment report also carries downside risk. A sharp deterioration in job data could spark broader growth fears, prompting investors to move toward defensive positions. Such an outcome could trigger short-term selloffs in crypto, as seen during previous macro shocks.

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Jobless Claims May Reinforce or Challenge the Trend

Thursday’s initial jobless claims release will provide a more immediate snapshot of labor-market conditions. As such, it could reinforce the narrative set by the employment and unemployment reports on Wednesday.

Recent spikes in claims have coincided with risk-off reactions in crypto markets, including liquidation events and rapid price swings. Some traders interpret rising claims as a signal that economic conditions are weakening enough to force monetary easing, a longer-term positive for Bitcoin.

Others warn that in the short term, deteriorating employment data can unsettle markets, especially when liquidity is thin and leverage is elevated.

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That dynamic has made jobless-claims releases a growing source of volatility, even though they rarely move markets in isolation.

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CPI and Core CPI Seen as the Week’s Decisive Catalyst

The most consequential data point may arrive on Friday, February 13, with the release of January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core CPI figures.

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Inflation data remains the primary driver of Fed policy expectations and, therefore, a key determinant of crypto market sentiment.

Cooler-than-expected readings in recent months have supported risk assets by weakening the “higher for longer” rate narrative.

Another soft inflation print could accelerate expectations for rate cuts in 2026, potentially reinforcing bullish momentum in Bitcoin and strengthening the case for a move toward six-figure price levels over time.

However, sticky or rising inflation would likely have the opposite effect, pushing Treasury yields higher and pressuring speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies.

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“If data comes in hot, rates will likely stay higher, and risk assets may struggle. If data cools, rate cut expectations could return, and markets may breathe. This week will tell us what comes next,” remarked analyst Kyle Chasse.

Taken together, the week’s events represent a concentrated test of the macro narratives currently driving Bitcoin: inflation, employment, and the timing of monetary easing.

While long-term adoption trends, such as ETF flows, institutional participation, and stablecoin growth, continue to underpin bullish projections, short-term price action remains closely tied to economic data.

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

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Steakhouse Financial front-end breach exposes users to phishing scam

DeFi risk curator Steakhouse Financial has been hacked and its website and app are now being used to host a phishing scam.

Steakhouse disclosed the breach Monday morning and warned that any new users interacting with the website or app are likely interacting with a malicious version implemented by the hackers. 

The attack appears to have affected just the front-end of operations, as Steakhouse assured users, “No deposits are at risk. No contracts are affected. All Steakhouse depositors are safe.”

A statement from the official Steakhouse Financial X account.

Read more: Fake Uniswap phishing ad on Google steals trader’s life savings

“We are working to restore the frontend as soon as possible,” the firm said. 

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Steakhouse co-founder, Sébastien Derivaux, warned crypto users to avoid the website until further notice.  

Various crypto firms offered alternative services and safety assurances for customers with funds at Steakhouse. 

Others found humor in the incident, with one user asking, “Does phishing on Steakhouse make this a surf and turf attack?”

At the time of writing, neither Steakhouse Financial or its CEO have shared any further updates on the incident.

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Steakhouse Financial housing a crypto drainer

Crypto security firm Blockaid claims that the Steakhouse attackers are utilizing code from one of the “largest active wallet drainer operations onchain” known as Angelferno, or Angel Drainer.

Read more: Fears of $27M Venus Protocol hack turn out to be phishing attack on power user

Earlier this month, AI crypto firm GAIB fell victim to a social engineering scheme that gave hackers access to its domain, where they implemented a copycat website kitted with Angelferno. 

Drainers work by stealing a user’s crypto after they sign a malicious transaction that gives hackers full access to withdraw their funds.

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Blockaid was able to help GAIB detect the malware, and the malicious site was gone in roughly seven hours, with no apparent user losses. 

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

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Bitcoin Hashrate falls 6%, US bond yields up 4%: Month in charts

This month, Bitcoin’s hashrate fell 6% after the US and Israel attacked Iran, highlighting Iran’s significant crypto mining activity.

Bitcoin price, meanwhile, remains lackluster. Higher 4% yields on US Treasury bonds have added pressure, and investors are seeking less risky prospects amid geopolitical tension.

Less appetite for crypto trading has proven problematic for Robinhood. The trading platform’s stock is down 16% on the month, and leadership has announced a stock buyback program. 

Prediction markets marked a record number of transactions, representing a more than 2,800% increase since this time last year. 

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Here’s March by the numbers:

Bitcoin lacks momentum as 4% US Treasury bond yields put pressure on price

Yields on five-year US Treasury bonds are up 4% in March, putting pressure on Bitcoin price. While showing some gains in mid March, the asset ended the month much where it started, around $67,000.

As per an analysis from Cointelegraph, fears of a drawn-out conflict between the US and Israel against Iran have led investors to cut out risk. A sell-off in bonds, along with a nine-month high of 4% in yields, suggests that traders are building cash positions.

Bitcoin hashrate falls nearly 6% after US and Israel attack Iran

On Feb. 28, the United States and Israel launched a joint special military operation in Iran called “Operation Epic Fury.” One month later, the Bitcoin (BTC) hashrate is down almost 6%.

Bloomberg crypto and digital assets strategist Dushyant Shahrawat said in a recent interview that Iran is one of the world’s largest Bitcoin miners, accounting for some 6-8% of global hashrate, and 70% of mining activities are conducted by the military. 

Disruptions to the country’s energy infrastructure and diversion of military priorities to defense have thus hit Iran’s ability to mine Bitcoin. 

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Prediction market transaction top 192 million

Transactions on prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi topped 192 million in March. That represents a 24% increase from last month and a 2,880% increase compared to the same time last year, according to Dune analytics. 

Related: Lawmakers push another bill to curb prediction market insider trading

Prediction markets are growing in popularity, but in the United States, they face state regulators who say they facilitate a form of gambling. At least 11 states have taken legal action against them.

On March 20, Carson City District Court Judge Jason Woodbury upheld a regulator’s move to temporarily ban prediction market Kalshi in Nevada. 

Arizona has brought criminal charges against Kalshi for allegedly “running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections, both of which violate Arizona law.”

Other states like Utah and Pennsylvania are currently considering legislation that would bring prediction markets under state gambling or gaming laws. Kalshi says that it answers only to federal regulation under the Commodity Futures Exchange Commission (CFTC). 

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Euro-denominated stablecoins account for 85% of non-dollar volume

Stablecoins backed by the euro have emerged as a favorite alternative to assets backed by US dollars. Some 85% of non-dollar stablecoin volumes occur in euros, according to a March report from Dune.

While euro-denominated coins initially only represented some 50-70% of the non-dollar market, they began expanding significantly in 2024. Now they represent 85% of total transferred volume. Euro stablecoins are also dominant in regard to participation, with user share rising to over 78%.

Dune attributes this increase to more confidence in stablecoins among institutions, thanks in large part to the Markets in Crypto-Assets regulatory package (MiCA). 

Robinhood stock down 16% on month

Robinhood stock has decreased over 16% in March, from nearly $80 to $66 as of publishing time. 

The stock and crypto trading company’s share price has been struggling in recent months. Over the last six months, it dropped over 50%. Uncertainty over the regulation of new verticals like prediction markets and social trading, along with a collapse in crypto trading revenues are creating structural obstacles for the company.

Revenue from crypto transactions reportedly dropped 38% year-over-year as of Q4 2025. Crypto app volumes dropped 58%.

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To address the problem, Robinhood has approved a $1.5 billion share buyback program in March, which will execute over the next three years. 

Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are 11% in the red

Amid a lackluster price action on the month, Strategy’s Bitcoin portfolio is at an 11% loss. The average cost of Bitcoin in its portfolio is $75,669. Bitcoin is trading around $67,800 at publishing time. 

Data collected March 30.

Still, the company has continued its regular Bitcoin purchases. It made two this month: one for 17,994 Bitcoin on March 9 and another for 22,337 Bitcoin on March 16, amounting to roughly $2.7 billion at publishing time.

The software company has financed most of its Bitcoin purchases through high-yield stock offerings, like Stretch (STRC). This allows the company to buy Bitcoin without diluting its MSTR common shares.

The company’s chair, Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, said recently that 80% of STRC buyers are retail investors. “Retail investors prefer low-volatility, high-yield digital credit,” he said.

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