Connect with us
DAPA Banner

Crypto World

Bitcoin Nears Gold: An Opportunity Within Risk

Published

on

Crypto Breaking News

Bitcoin’s long-run price relationship with gold is flashing a bullish signal after a retracement that mirrors levels seen in 2017, 2022, and 2023. The BTC–gold ratio has begun to show strength in tandem with a bullish divergence on the daily RSI, a setup that traders watch as a potential pivot from risk-off to risk-on sentiment. Analysts describe the moment as an “opportunity within risk,” where macro volatility intersects with a nascent shift in capital allocation. As liquidity shifts and institutional attention debates the next leg for bitcoin, the ratio’s behavior is drawing renewed interest from traders watching the macro backdrop and cross-asset dynamics.

Key takeaways

  • The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is signaling a bullish divergence on the daily RSI, suggesting fading selling pressure even as prices form lower lows.
  • In February, the BTC/Gold ratio retraced toward a key support zone around 12–13, a level that has acted as resistance in 2017 and as support in 2022–2023, potentially marking a long-term bottom for the pair.
  • Gold ETF flows showed a major outflow, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) shedding about $3 billion on March 6, highlighting risk-off repositioning in precious metals amid broader market volatility.
  • Bitcoin ETF flows turned positive in March, with 30-day net inflows of $906 million by March 11, indicating a resurgence of institutional participation after prior outflows.
  • Macro conditions are described by policymakers and researchers as creating a window of “opportunity within risk” for BTC, as bitcoin’s correlations with macro assets like oil and U.S. equities shift amid geopolitical tensions.
  • Despite these signals, ETFs still account for a relatively small share of total BTC spot trading, implying substantial room for future institutional expansion.

Tickers mentioned: $BTC, $GLD

Sentiment: Bullish

Price impact: Positive. A confluence of improving ETF inflows for BTC and a rebound in the BTC/Gold ratio suggests upside potential, though macro risk remains a consideration for near-term moves.

Market context: A backdrop of macro volatility is shaping crypto liquidity and cross-asset flows, with rising institutional activity in BTC spot trading contrasted against ongoing gold ETF dynamics and geopolitical drivers that influence risk appetite.

Advertisement

Why it matters

The BTC–gold ratio has long served as a proxy for risk sentiment and cross-asset competition between non-sovereign stores of value. A bullish divergence on the RSI — when price forms lower lows while momentum indicators crest higher lows — points to waning selling pressure and the potential for a trend reversal. If the ratio can sustain a bottom near the 12–13 range seen in prior cycles, Bitcoin could embark on a multi-year re-pricing against gold, implying shifts in diversification strategies among investors who balance crypto exposure with traditional inflation hedges.

The flow dynamics underscore a broader transition in investor posture. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) outflow near $3 billion on March 6 suggests a tactical rotation away from gold, at least in the short term, while Bitcoin’s ETF balances and net flows have started to revert from net outflows to net inflows in early March. For background context, a notable observation from the Kobeissi Letter highlighted the scale of GLD’s outflow and compared it to activity seen over the last two years, underscoring how large-cap moves in the precious metals space can influence risk-on/risk-off cycles across assets.

On the BTC side, the institutional signal has begun to resume. The 30-day change in Bitcoin ETF balances turned positive, moving to 12,909 BTC after a prior period of heavy withdrawals, even as gold ETF holdings declined. This juxtaposition illustrates a shifting appetite for bitcoin among large market participants who historically favored traditional hedges during times of geopolitical stress. Binance Research has framed these dynamics within a wider macro context, noting that volatility can occasionally create an “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin when macro assets move in a correlated fashion with energy and equities markets.

Against this backdrop, market participants are also watching the role of exchange-traded products in driving liquidity. Bitcoin’s share of US spot ETF trading volume has edged higher in recent weeks, signaling growing institutional participation, though it remains a minority share of total activity. If this trend continues, it could bolster BTC’s capacity to absorb shocks and sustain upside momentum when risk sentiment improves. The broader narrative—geopolitical tensions, inflation dynamics, and policy expectations—continues to influence price behavior in ways that can either exacerbate volatility or unlock durable moves when catalysts align.

Advertisement

As noted in prior coverage, historical patterns around midterm elections and macro shocks show BTC delivering varying returns, but the longer-run perspective remains constructive for BTC vs. gold when risk-on sentiment returns. It is at these points that the BTC–gold ratio might transition from a defensive stance to a more cyclical, growth-oriented trajectory, supported by increasing institutional flows and a measured reallocation of capital between crypto and traditional hedges.

What to watch next

  • Monitor the BTC/Gold ratio’s ability to hold the 12–13 support area and whether momentum confirms a new uptrend on the weekly chart.
  • Track SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) flows for signals of renewed risk-off rotations or renewed interest in gold as a hedge.
  • Watch 30-day BTC ETF balance changes and overall ETF flow data for a sustained shift from selling to buying pressure.
  • Observe the share of US spot trading volume attributed to BTC-related ETFs as institutional participation strengthens.
  • Keep an eye on macro developments and geopolitical events that could reaccelerate cross-asset correlations, affecting both BTC and gold dynamics.

Sources & verification

  • World Gold Council data on gold ETF flows and holdings to corroborate the GLD outflow narrative.
  • Kobeissi Letter commentary on GLD flows and the scale of the recent outflow.
  • Bold.report data showing the 30-day BTC ETF net inflows improving to approximately $906 million as of March 11.
  • Binance Research weekly market commentary (March 11, 2026) discussing macro volatility and Bitcoin’s opportunity within risk.
  • Cointelegraph coverage on Bitcoin versus gold ETF flows and related market dynamics, including references to BTC/Gold ratio behavior and RSI signals.

Bitcoin’s long-run tilt against gold signals a potential trend shift

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is tracing a long-horizon pattern versus gold that could hint at a broader regime shift in capital allocation. The BTC–gold ratio has recharged after a dip that aligned with major macro events, and a bullish RSI divergence on the daily chart indicates a possible easing of downward price pressure. The retrace to a support zone around 12–13 on the BTCXAU scale echoes a critical juncture seen in 2017 before a multi-year acceleration, as well as the stabilization seen in 2022 and 2023. While the exact path remains uncertain, traders are watching whether this level holds as a foundation for a durable breakout from a bear-market phase in the ratio.

One pivotal factor is the flow dynamic between gold and bitcoin-related instruments. The SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) ETF experienced a sizable outflow around March 6, a signal that risk-off capital was rotating away from bullion at that moment. The Kobeissi Letter captured the magnitude of the move, noting that the outflow exceeded typical daily shifts by a wide margin. In contrast, Bitcoin-focused ETF activity began to show renewed interest, with 30-day BTC ETF balances flipping from negative territory to a positive drift. By March 11, net inflows reached roughly $906 million, suggesting a re-emergence of institutional participation in BTC markets after prior corrections.

The macro backdrop adds an additional layer of nuance. Binance Research described current volatility as creating a meaningful “opportunity within risk” for Bitcoin, pointing to how BTC’s price action has begun to mirror other macro assets amid regional tensions and shifting risk sentiment. In practical terms, this means that while geopolitical developments can drive immediate volatility, they can also create dispersion that benefits an asset with growing institutional interest and a robust macro narrative. The market’s liquidity dynamics—particularly the share of BTC trading volume emanating from spot ETFs—signal that institutions are cautiously increasing exposure, even as overall ETF penetration remains below highs observed in broader equity markets.

Looking ahead, the critical question is whether BTC can sustain a higher-low trajectory against gold and crack the resistance that defines the current phase. If the ratio remains supported and momentum continues to strengthen, Bitcoin could extend its outperformance relative to gold in the coming quarters. The market’s response to macro news, regulatory developments, and ETF flows will likely shape whether this divergence translates into a sustained trend or a temporary re-pricing within a broader range.

Advertisement

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

Source link

Advertisement
Continue Reading
Click to comment

You must be logged in to post a comment Login

Leave a Reply

Crypto World

XRP Price Prediction: Can These 6 Ongoing Developments Save Ripple

Published

on

XRP is trading at $1.31, up by 0.9% in the last 24 hours, but price prediction still remains bearish for Ripple coin.

XRP is trading at $1.31, up by 0.9% in the last 24 hours, but price prediction still remains bearish for Ripple coin. Down nearly 30% year-to-date from a $1.88 open, the token is fighting to hold key support while the broader market registers extreme fear. What most traders haven’t priced in yet: a significant engineering overhaul quietly underway inside the XRP Ledger’s core repository.

Denis Angell, an XRPL core developer, outlined six active workstreams on April 2 that are reshaping the ledger’s foundational infrastructure, telemetry, nomenclature, type safety, refactoring, logging, and documentation.

“I’ve never been more excited for the XRP Ledger core development than I am now,” Angell posted, describing the effort as tedious but critical.

The work targets backend reliability and developer experience rather than user-facing features, a distinction that matters for long-term network competitiveness.

Advertisement

Whether these upgrades translate into price recovery depends entirely on market timing.

Discover: The best crypto to diversify your portfolio with

XRP Price Prediction: $1.40 Before the Next Wave of Selling?

XRP’s current level of $1.31 places it uncomfortably below both major moving averages. The 50-day SMA sits at $1.40–$1.42, acting as immediate overhead resistance. The 200-day SMA at $2.04–$2.07 represents a full recovery target that feels distant given current momentum.

Advertisement
XRP is trading at $1.31, up by 0.9% in the last 24 hours, but price prediction still remains bearish for Ripple coin.
XRP USD, TradingView

Support is clustered at $1.27–$1.29. That zone is thin. A clean break below it opens a more significant leg down with limited structural floors until the $1.10 range. The Fear and Greed Index reading Fear confirms capitulation sentiment, which historically precedes either a sharp reversal or a final flush.

Analyst consensus points to $2.04 as a potential recovery level by September 2026, achievable, but requiring sustained buying pressure that simply isn’t visible in current volume data.

Discover: The best pre-launch token sales

Bitcoin Hyper Targets Early-Mover Upside as XRP Tests Critical Support

XRP’s -29.6% year-to-date performance raises a legitimate question: at a $1.31 price point and a multi-billion-dollar market cap, how much asymmetric upside actually remains? For traders comfortable with the risk profile of early-stage assets, the calculus looks different at the infrastructure layer.

Advertisement

Bitcoin Hyper ($HYPER) is positioning itself as a genuinely novel infrastructure play, the first Bitcoin Layer 2 integrating the Solana Virtual Machine, delivering sub-second finality and low-cost smart contract execution while anchored to Bitcoin’s security model.

The presale has raised $32 million at a current price of just $0.013678, with healthy staking rewards available for early participants. The Decentralized Canonical Bridge enables native BTC transfers into the ecosystem, addressing Bitcoin’s longstanding programmability gap without sacrificing its trust layer.

More detail on Bitcoin Hyper is available here.

The post XRP Price Prediction: Can These 6 Ongoing Developments Save Ripple appeared first on Cryptonews.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Riot Platforms Offloads 3,778 BTC Worth Over $250M

Published

on

Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR

  • Riot Platforms sold 3,778 Bitcoin for more than $250 million during the first quarter of 2025.
  • The company reduced its total Bitcoin holdings to 15,680 BTC after the sale.
  • Riot Platforms achieved an average selling price of over $76,000 per Bitcoin.
  • The firm has now sold Bitcoin in consecutive quarters after raising nearly $200 million late last year.
  • CEO Jason Les said earlier that sales were intended to fund ongoing growth and operations.

Riot Platforms sold more than $250 million in Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2025. The company confirmed it sold 3,778 BTC at an average price above $76,000. As a result, the firm reduced its total holdings to 15,680 BTC by the end of March.

Riot Platforms Cuts Bitcoin Holdings as Sales Extend Into Second Quarter

Riot Platforms reported that it sold 3,778 Bitcoin during the first quarter of 2025. The company achieved an average sale price above $76,000 per coin. Consequently, it reduced its Bitcoin reserves to 15,680 BTC at quarter’s end. The remaining holdings now carry a market value near $1.04 billion. Bitcoin traded at $66,844 at the time of valuation.

The Colorado-based miner has now sold Bitcoin in consecutive quarters. During November and December, it generated nearly $200 million from Bitcoin sales. The company has not yet disclosed detailed allocation plans for the recent proceeds. A company representative did not respond to a request for comment. However, earlier in 2025, CEO Jason Les addressed the purpose of prior sales.

Les stated that earlier Bitcoin sales aimed to “fund ongoing growth and operations.” He connected those operations to expanding infrastructure and computing capacity. The company outlined these objectives in its latest strategic business update. Riot Platforms has focused on increasing its data center capabilities. It also continues to adjust its capital structure through asset sales.

Riot Platforms Shifts Strategy Toward Data Center Development

Riot Platforms confirmed that it intends to expand beyond traditional Bitcoin mining. The firm stated that it plans to unlock its nearly two-gigawatt power portfolio. It aims to deploy that capacity for high-demand data center infrastructure. Les said, “2025 marked a watershed year for Riot.” He added that the company has transformed its future trajectory.

Advertisement

The company explained that it previously used most of its power portfolio for Bitcoin mining. Now, it seeks to reallocate that capacity toward data center development. Riot Platforms stated that its long-term goal is “to fully utilize our power portfolio for data center development.” This shift aligns with ongoing operational restructuring. The firm continues to balance mining output with infrastructure planning.

An activist investor, Starboard Value, urged the company to accelerate its transition strategy. Starboard Value stated that the opportunity could add as much as $21 billion to Riot’s valuation. The investor called for a “renewed sense of urgency” in pursuing this plan. Meanwhile, shares of RIOT closed up 2.47% on Thursday. The stock recently traded at $12.86.

Over the past six months, RIOT shares have fallen more than 33%. During the same period, Bitcoin has declined 47% from its all-time high of $126,080. The company continues to report updates through formal filings and public statements. Riot Platforms has not announced further Bitcoin sales beyond the first quarter.

Advertisement

Source link

Continue Reading

Crypto World

Kalshi Onboards Ex-Democratic Strategist amid Legal Troubles

Published

on

Law, United States, Policy, Kalshi, Prediction Markets

Stephanie Cutter will join the prediction markets company as a policy adviser, having previously worked in Democratic lawmakers’ campaigns.

Predictions market platform Kalshi announced that a former staffer of US President Barack Obama had joined the company as a policy adviser.

In a Thursday notice, Kalshi said Stephanie Cutter would join the prediction markets company from Precision Strategies, a communications firm she co-founded in 2013. Kalshi said the addition of Cutter came as the company planned to “deepen its relationships in DC and across the country.”

Advertisement
Law, United States, Policy, Kalshi, Prediction Markets
Source: Stephanie Cutter

According to Kalshi co-founder and CEO Tarek Mansour, Cutter’s experience allowed her to “get [the] message to the right people,” highlighting her background in government and politics. The predictions market already has staff with ties to the US government, including the appointment of the president’s son, Donald Trump Jr., as a strategic adviser in January 2025, the week before his father took office.

In the last year, Kalshi has come under scrutiny from many US state-level authorities, who have filed lawsuits against the platform and other companies offering event contracts on prediction markets for sports, alleging that they constituted illegal bets.

Under Trump nominee Michael Selig, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has claimed that the agency has the “exclusive jurisdiction” to oversee such markets, filing lawsuits against state gaming regulators.

Related: Polymarket expands into equities and commodities with Pyth price feeds

Lawsuits and proposed legislation

Many Democrats in US Congress have also called for scrutiny into prediction markets after what they called “suspicious trades” related to the country’s invasion of Iran. Although Kalshi and Polymarket announced plans in March to implement guardrails to prevent accounts from using insider information, some lawmakers introduced legislation that could ban politicians from engaging in such bets on prediction markets.

Advertisement

As of Friday, none of the bills proposed in Congress had been signed into law, and it was unclear what the outcome would be for many of the state-level lawsuits.

Magazine: Solana exec trolls crypto gamers, Pixel tackles play-to-earn issues: Web3 Gamer