Bitcoin derivatives data signals a bullish shift after nearly eight days of bearish positioning in the futures market.

Bitcoin derivatives data show that the market structure has changed, with the Integrated Market Index reaching 96 on March 16, its highest level in the last 30 days.

The reading comes after a reversal in taker flow that ended almost 8 days of bearish positioning in the futures BTC market, with the flagship crypto now trading several thousand dollars above its estimated fair value.

Derivatives Indicator Points to Renewed Bullish Structure

According to analyst Axel Adler Jr., Bitcoin’s Integrated Market Index hit 96 while the model’s Price Index rose above 95. The index combines signals from derivatives such as future flows and price deviation to show how much pressure the market is under on a scale of 0 to 100.

A bullish regime, Adler noted, is when the value is above 55, and a bearish regime is when the value is below 45. The model has been in a bearish phase for about 178 hours, starting on February 15 when it fell as BTC dropped toward $63,000 amid sustained negative taker volume and diminishing open interest.

However, per Adler’s analysis, the change happened on March 10, when both the taker flow and the open interest went up at the same time, pushing both the flow and price components back above their bullish thresholds.

With Bitcoin momentarily jumping above $74,000 on March 16, its fair value over 30 days as measured by Adler’s model now sits around $70,000. The gap means the market is worth about $3,400 more, with the market watcher suggesting that these kinds of premiums can occur during times of high demand as long as the derivatives flow index stays high.

Data also shows that the larger crypto market also got stronger in the last 24 hours, with BTC’s move above $74,000 not the only green arrow. Ethereum (ETH) also went over $2,200 as several coins, including Solana (SOL), Dogecoin (DOGE), Cardano (ADA), and Hyperliquid (HYPE), recorded more than 10% gains over the past 7 days.

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The rally has brought the crypto market’s value up 2.6% to just under $2.6 trillion, per CoinGecko. However, it wiped out about $380 million in leveraged positions, with around $303 million coming from traders who had bet on falling prices.

BTC Price Movement

At the time of writing, Bitcoin had dropped by a couple of hundred bucks below $74,000. Nevertheless, it was still about 9% higher than it was a week ago and nearly 6% across 30 days.

This is not the first time that BTC has tested $74,000. Last Friday, the number one cryptocurrency encountered a barrier at the same level, causing it to retreat by over $3,000, before the recent recovery.

For now, derivatives data shows sustained buying pressure, with the Integrated Market Index remaining deep in bullish territory. Analysts tracking the model say the first warning sign would be the index falling back below 55 or a decline in futures flow that pushes prices closer to its fair-value benchmark.

After billions in bets on a U.S.–Iran strike and an insider scandal on platforms like Polymarket, Democrats push the DEATH BETS Act, targeting prediction markets that trade on war, terror and death.

Prediction markets just ran into Washington’s moral panic. After a record surge in trading linked to the U.S.–Iran conflict, a senior Democrat is now moving to shut down the sector’s most controversial edge: markets that price war, terrorism and death.​

For the week ending March 9, on-chain and regulated prediction venues blew through previous activity highs. Data compiled by Cointelegraph shows nominal volume on Polymarket hit 2.49 billion dollars over the period, while CFTC‑regulated Kalshi posted 2.85 billion dollars, pushing the total nominal volume across all prediction platforms to 14.5 billion dollars and lifting unique users to 2.8 million. The trigger was obvious: escalating U.S.–Iran tensions, with traders aggressively pricing the odds of an American strike.

Polymarket death markets gain scrutiny from lawmakers

That set up the political backlash. U.S. Democratic senator Adam Schiff has introduced the so‑called “DEATH BETS Act,” a bill that would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to explicitly bar federally regulated prediction markets from listing contracts tied to war, terrorism, assassinations, or individual deaths. Regulators have long had discretion over “event contracts,” but this proposal would hard‑code a bright red line around anything that looks like trading on human catastrophe.

Schiff’s move also follows a very specific scandal. Six Polymarket users are accused of using insider information to place roughly 1 million dollars’ worth of winning bets on the timing of a U.S. strike on Iran, crystallizing the sector’s worst optics: privileged actors monetizing sensitive, potentially classified information while the rest of the market thinks it is trading “pure information.” For critics, that episode proves prediction markets are not just forecasting tools, but a new venue for front‑running geopolitics.​

For crypto‑native prediction platforms, the message is brutal. Volumes are finally at institutional scale, but the order flow driving that growth is clustering in precisely the categories now being lined up for prohibition. If the DEATH BETS framework becomes a template for other regulators, the sector will be pushed toward more anodyne contracts—macro data, elections, sports—while the most informationally rich, liquidity‑dense markets migrate fully offshore or into gray‑zone DeFi. In market terms, Washington is saying the quiet part out loud: some kinds of “truth markets” will not be allowed to clear.

Crypto markets are off to a strong start this week, with major altcoins surging amid more than $400 million in short liquidations. Stocks rallied while oil dropped 5% after U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC that Iranian oil tankers are being allowed to transit the Strait of Hormuz.

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at around $74,000, up 3.5% over the past 24 hours. Layer 1 tokens are outperforming, with ETH surging 10% to $2,320, and SOL climbing 8% to $95.

Meanwhile, Polkadot (DOT) rallied 15%, Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA) gained around 9%, and BNB added 2%.

The overall crypto market capitalization climbed 3.5% to $2.61 trillion, according to Coingecko.

Michael Saylor’s Strategy purchased an additional 22,337 Bitcoin between March 9 and March 15 for approximately $1.57 billion at an average price of $70,194 per coin, according to a Monday SEC filing. The acquisition, one of the company’s largest to date, brings its total holdings to 761,068 BTC.

Nearly all of the Top 100 digital assets posted gains over the last 24 hours.

Today’s top gainers are Zcash (ZEC) and PEPE, which both surged 20%.

TRUMP and Bittensor (TAO) are the biggest losers, down 4% and 2%, respectively.

Around 120,000 leveraged traders were liquidated for $542 million in the past 24 hours, according to CoinGlass, with short positions comprising $420 million. Bitcoin accounted for $173 million, while ETH led with $220 million.

Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded inflows of $180 million on Friday, bringing last week’s total inflows to $767 million, according to SoSoValue.

Metaplanet sold equity and fixed‑strike warrants at a premium, monetizing stock volatility into up to $531 million of dry powder for a 210,000 BTC, yen‑hedged balance‑sheet bet.

Metaplanet just weaponized its equity to buy more Bitcoin (BTC). This is not a vibes-based CT announcement; it is a highly engineered capital markets trade aimed squarely at becoming “Japan’s MicroStrategy,” with a yen hedge bolted on.​

Deal structure in plain language

The key innovation is not “we raised money and we’ll buy Bitcoin.” It is the explicit monetization of equity volatility: investors are effectively paying for convexity on the stock, and Metaplanet is harvesting that option value to buy hard assets.​

Why the warrant design matters

The warrants are struck 10% above the reference price, so they only get exercised if Metaplanet’s share price trades higher, i.e., if the market buys the Bitcoin accumulation story. That creates a self‑funding loop: volatility and upside in the equity translate directly into more capital to deploy into BTC. Commentators on the thread correctly highlight this as “the real innovation,” noting that Metaplanet benefits both from stock volatility and from Bitcoin appreciation.​

In market structure terms, the firm is short call options on its own equity and long Bitcoin. It is selling path‑dependent equity upside today to increase its exposure to a non‑sovereign monetary asset it believes will outperform the yen and, likely, Japanese equities over the long term.​

Where MicroStrategy pioneered this model in the US, Metaplanet adds another layer: a currency hedge against a structurally weak yen. One international holder in the replies openly frames the move as bullish for Japan, arguing that the yen “could benefit greatly from Bitcoin.” Others go further, calling the strategy a matter of corporate “survival” rather than mere profit, a blunt acknowledgment of what sustained currency debasement does to domestic balance sheets.

Another respondent captures the denominator problem cleanly: institutional capital is “waking up to the reality of the denominator” and “building a fortress out of math,” with volatility as the energy source to forge a new standard. Translated into market terms: Metaplanet is trading a dilutable equity, priced in a weakening unit of account, for an asset with a credibly scarce supply schedule.​

Signal to the market

Reaction on X swings from praise—calling the placement a “masterclass in capital strategy”—to confusion and outright skepticism about what Metaplanet is and whether this is a scam. That bifurcation is typical early in any new corporate balance‑sheet regime: most participants do not yet speak the language of corporate‑fi‑meets‑Bitcoin, and the documentation reads like jargon to anyone not trained in derivatives.

• Cardano (ADA) rises above $0.28 as whale accumulation boosts short-term momentum.
• Positive funding rates and higher open interest support near-term gains.
• The key levels to watch are the support at $0.25–$0.27 and the resistance near $0.30–$0.35.

Cardano (ADA) has surged over 8% in the past 24 hours, breaking above key short-term resistance levels.

The price is now hovering around $0.286, bringing the $0.30 mark into focus for traders.

Momentum has picked up sharply as derivatives data show positive funding rates and rising open interest.

This price movement has attracted attention from mid-tier whale wallets.

These investors, holding between one million and ten million ADA, have been actively accumulating during recent dips. Their buying has added upward pressure, tightening available supply in the market.

Meanwhile, larger whale wallets, holding ten million to a hundred million ADA, have been reducing positions, suggesting some distribution at higher price levels, creating a mixed picture in the whale ecosystem.

The balance between accumulation and distribution will likely influence price swings in the coming days.

Technical analysis

From a technical perspective, ADA has broken above a descending trendline that had capped price action near $0.25 for weeks.

This breakout has set the stage for further gains as short-term indicators lean bullish.

The relative strength index (RSI) sits above 50, indicating that momentum favours buyers, but it is not yet in overbought territory.

The MACD has crossed above its signal line, and its histogram is expanding, signalling that buying momentum is gaining strength.

Price action has shown that the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) is providing support near $0.27.

Eyes are now on the 50-day EMA around $0.29 and the 100-day EMA closer to $0.34.

Breaking these levels could open the door to further upside, but failing to hold above the short-term support zone could result in a pullback.

In addition, Cardano’s open interest is also rising, and the funding rate has turned positive, meaning that long positions are paying shorts, which historically aligns with bullish momentum in the near term.

Cardano price forecast

In the short term, traders should monitor $0.30 as the next psychological resistance.

A breakout above $0.30 could target the $0.34–$0.35 range, guided by key EMAs and prior swing highs.

While momentum indicators suggest room for further upside, the market will need consistent buying volume to sustain higher levels.

On the downside, the immediate support lies near $0.27, with a more significant level around $0.25.

A drop below $0.25 could test deeper support near $0.24, potentially signalling short-term bearish pressure.

Bitmine Immersion Technologies has accelerated the pace of its Ether purchases in recent weeks, chairman Tom Lee said Monday, following the company’s over-the-counter purchase of 5,000 ETH directly from the Ethereum Foundation.

Lee said Bitmine added 60,999 Ether (ETH) over the past week, up from a recent weekly average of about 45,000 to 50,000 ETH.

The purchases bring the publicly traded company’s Ethereum treasury to 4.596 million ETH, giving Bitmine control of about 3.81% of the token’s total supply. The company said its combined crypto holdings, cash and other investments total about $11.5 billion.

Bitmine said that 3,040,515 ETH, about 66% of its holdings, are currently staked, valued at roughly $6.6 billion at an Ether price of $2,185.

The company estimates its staking operations generate about $180 million in annualized revenue. It plans to expand staking through its Made in America Validator Network (MAVAN), expected to launch in the coming months.