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Bitcoin outperforms gold as Iran war shakes ‘safe-haven’ trade

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Bitcoin outperforms gold as Iran war shakes 'safe-haven' trade

Since Donald Trump joined Israel’s war with Iran at 1:15am New York time on February 28, bitcoin (BTC) has rallied 8% while gold has fallen 18%.

At the onset of war, BTC was trading at $65,492 and gold was at $5,279 per ounce. By Monday evening, however, BTC had jumped to $70,700 while gold had tumbled to $4,300.

All this means that BTC now buys 32% more gold than it did on the morning of Operation Epic Fury.

Indeed, the world’s most valuable precious metal shed 12% in a single week, its worst seven-day stretch since 1983. Investors who bought gold as war insurance watched their policy lose a fifth of its value in four weeks.

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Bitcoin (orange) versus gold (blue). February 28-March 23, 2026. Source: TradingView

Safe haven investors get a margin call

Gold’s initial move on the start of the conflict was a fakeout. It spiked higher after the Strait of Hormuz oil tanker shipping lane closure but reversed hard.

US Treasury yields climbed and the dollar strengthened, two forces that typically dampen the price of gold regardless of how many warships are in the Persian Gulf.

The sizable SPDR Gold Shares ETF hemorrhaged $4.2 billion in the first week of the war, breaking the record for weekly outflows in the fund’s history.

Investors pulled 25 tonnes of physical gold backing from the world’s biggest gold ETF within seven days.

Bitcoin absorbed the same shock yet held onto its gain. It even outperformed the S&P 500 Index which has fallen over 3% since the war began.

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Read more: How bombing Iran shifted oil and bitcoin prices

Bridgewater Associates founder Ray Dalio advised on the popular All-In podcast on March 3 that central banks are never going to want to buy BTC. “There is only one gold,” he claimed.

Since Dalio’s prediction, gold has dropped more than 15%. BTC, the asset Dalio dismissed, rallied.

Although BTC has performed well since the US authorized the bombing of Iran, it hasn’t outperformed gold over longer recent time periods. Year-to-date, the gold price is flat versus the 20% loss for BTC. Over the past 12 months, gold is up 44% versus a 17% loss for BTC.

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Crypto World

Stablecoins Do Not Threaten Banking Just Yet: Analyst

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Stablecoins Do Not Threaten Banking Just Yet: Analyst

The impact of stablecoins on the banking sector appears “limited” at the current phase of the adoption cycle, but banks could face increasing competition and an erosion of market share as the stablecoin sector and tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) grow in market capitalization. 

“So far, the use of stablecoins remains limited, but their market capitalization exceeded $300 billion at the end of last year,” Abhi Srivastava, associate vice president of Moody’s Investors Service Digital Economy Group, told Cointelegraph.

The stablecoin market cap has surged past $300 billion. Source: RWA.xyz

The role of stablecoins in payments, cross-border commerce and onchain finance is “expanding,” despite their currently limited role, Srivastava said, adding that existing payment systems in the US are already “fast, low-cost and trusted.” He said:

“For the banking sector, at this stage, disruption risk appears limited. In the near term, US rules that prohibit stablecoins from paying yield mean they are unlikely to replace traditional deposits at scale domestically.”

However, over time, growing adoption of stablecoins and tokenized RWAs, traditional or physical financial assets represented on a blockchain by a token, could place “pressure” on the banking sector, leading to deposit outflows and reduced lending capacity, he said.

Stablecoin regulatory policy has become a hot-button issue among crypto industry executives and those in the banking sector, with fears that yield-bearing stablecoins could erode banking market share proving to be a stumbling block for the CLARITY crypto market structure bill in Congress. 

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Related: Stablecoins behave like FX markets as liquidity splits: Eco CEO

CLARITY Act stalled, as banks fight yield-bearing stablecoins

The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025, also known as the CLARITY Act, is a comprehensive crypto market regulatory framework that establishes an asset taxonomy, regulatory jurisdiction and oversight over the crypto markets.

The CLARITY crypto market structure bill. Source: US Congress

It is now stalled in Congress after a group of crypto industry companies, led by cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase, publicly stated opposition to earlier drafts of the bill.

A lack of legal protections for open-source software developers and a prohibition on yield-bearing stablecoins were among some of the most contentious issues cited by crypto industry opponents of the legislation.

Several attempts have been made by US lawmakers and the White House to negotiate a bill acceptable to both the crypto industry and the bank lobby.

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Earlier this month, North Carolina Senator Thom Tillis said he plans to release an updated draft bill proposal that would be acceptable to both sides; however, the bill has reportedly received pushback, according to Politico, and has yet to be publicly released. 

However, other crypto industry executives and market analysts have warned that if the CLARITY Act fails to pass, it could open the crypto industry up to future regulatory crackdowns by hostile lawmakers and officials.

Magazine: Stablecoins will see explosive growth in 2025 as world embraces asset class