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Bitcoin price drops below $66k as Iran conflict escalates: Here’s what to expect

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  • Bitcoin drops below $66K as Middle East tensions spark volatility.
  • $6.39 billion ETF outflows show weakening institutional crypto demand.
  • BTC swings between $63K–$65K; traders watch support and rate policy.

Bitcoin (BTC) has slipped below the $66,000 mark as global markets react to escalating tensions in the Middle East.

The rising conflict between Iran, the US, and Israel has prompted a wave of uncertainty that is affecting risk assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin, in particular, is showing sharp intraday swings in response to news developments.

Early trading saw BTC fall as low as $63,000 before it recovered to above $65,000.

This volatility reflects a mix of geopolitical fear and active liquidations in the derivatives market, with more than $130 million in long positions being forced to close and amplifying the downward pressure on the cryptocurrency.

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The US, Israel, Iran war has sent shockwaves across markets

The current situation in the Middle East has made investors jittery.

Traditionally, Bitcoin has sometimes been viewed as a hedge during global crises, but recent behaviour shows it acting more like a risk asset.

Notably, Bitcoin’s price has been moving in close correlation with equities, particularly major stock indices, rather than holding steady in turbulent times.

Gold and oil, however, have seen upward movements, with oil prices surging amid anticipation of supply disruptions.

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The price of Gold has also climbed modestly, reflecting its traditional safe-haven status.

These shifts indicate that money is flowing away from riskier assets like Bitcoin and toward instruments perceived as more stable during geopolitical stress.

Long-term BTC holders, however, are showing resilience.

After the initial sell-off, many investors took the opportunity to buy at lower levels, which contributed to a partial recovery.

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This has prevented Bitcoin from falling as sharply as some other risk assets, demonstrating that there is still significant support at levels around $65,000.

Institutional demand weakens

US-listed spot bitcoin and ether exchange-traded funds have recorded sustained outflows over the past four months, pointing to a sharp cooling in institutional participation in digital assets.

Investors withdrew $6.39 billion from bitcoin ETFs during the period, the longest continuous monthly decline since the products launched in January 2024, according to SoSoValue data.

Ether ETFs also saw $2.76 billion in outflows.

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The retreat coincided with a steep fall in token prices, with bitcoin dropping from above $126,000 in early October, while ether has fallen more than 60% from its August highs near $4,950.

Spot ETFs had previously served as a visible channel for institutional inflows after their debut and following pro-crypto political developments in 2024.

However, demand weakened after the October market downturn, reportedly linked to pricing inefficiencies on offshore exchange Binance.

Although recent sessions have seen intermittent inflows, analysts say a consistent return of capital is required for a durable recovery.

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What this means for Bitcoin going forward

Traders should expect more volatility in the short term since Bitcoin is sensitive to headlines, and any further escalation in the Middle East could trigger additional sharp movements.

Traders should keep a close eye on the technical support level near $63,000, while resistance around $68,000 to $70,000 remains a key target for recovery.

Also, besides the Middle East war, monetary policy may also play a role in the next BTC price movements.

If central banks respond to the conflict with interest rate adjustments or liquidity measures, Bitcoin could benefit indirectly.

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Historical trends suggest that geopolitical crises followed by rate cuts or monetary easing often support risk assets, and cryptocurrencies could be no exception.

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Crypto World

TRON Scales AI Fund to $1 Billion to Build the Financial Rails of the Agentic Economy

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Brian Armstrong's Bold Prediction: AI Agents Will Soon Dominate Global Financial

TLDR:

  • TRON DAO has expanded its AI Fund tenfold, growing from $100 million to a full $1 billion commitment.
  • The fund targets agent identity systems, stablecoin payment rails, and tokenized equity as core investment areas.
  • TRON’s network processes over $21 billion daily and holds $85 billion in USDT, supporting agent-scale payments.
  • Tokenized equity is positioned as the ownership layer for AI agents managing economic interests on behalf of users.

TRON DAO has expanded its AI Fund from $100 million to $1 billion. The fund targets early-stage companies building infrastructure for the agentic economy.

It focuses on agent identity systems, stablecoin payment rails, tokenized assets, and developer tooling. This move builds on a thesis formed in 2023, when TRON predicted AI and blockchain would converge.

TRON Doubles Down on AI and Blockchain Convergence

The TRON AI Fund first launched with a clear conviction: AI and blockchain technology would eventually merge. That prediction has gained enough traction to justify a tenfold increase in committed capital.

The fund now positions itself as a strategic vehicle, not just a financial one. Its expanded mandate reflects growing market demand for autonomous financial infrastructure.

Three core theses continue to drive the fund’s investment direction. As TRON stated, “AI agents will become active participants in the global economy, requiring new financial infrastructures that combine identity, payment, and asset ownership fully onchain.”

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This makes stablecoins the most practical payment layer for agent-to-agent commerce today. The fund views this as foundational, rather than experimental, infrastructure.

Stablecoins also serve individuals and small teams augmented by AI tools. A single person running AI-powered operations no longer needs a large team behind them.

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However, they still need payment systems that are simple, low-cost, and accessible. Traditional banking onboarding and intermediary fees make that difficult to achieve.

TRON noted that “AI-augmented people can run what once required entire teams from a single laptop.” That shift changes the demand for financial tools entirely.

Tokenized equity rounds out the fund’s framework as the ownership layer for this new economy. It is divisible, programmable, and transferable around the clock, supporting autonomous asset management.

TRON’s Network Scale Positions It for Agent-to-Agent Settlement

TRON’s blockchain currently supports over 370 million user accounts across its network. Daily transaction volume on the chain exceeds $21 billion, demonstrating its capacity at scale.

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The network also holds more than $85 billion in circulating USDT supply. These numbers place TRON among the largest stablecoin liquidity sources in the blockchain space.

TRON described agent-to-agent payments as systems expected to “rely on infrastructure that is already proven at scale.” Its network meets that standard through its user base, liquidity depth, and transaction throughput.

The fund intends to extend this infrastructure further into settlement and custody for tokenized assets. That expansion aligns with the broader goal of supporting autonomous financial systems.

The fund will also pursue acquisitions alongside traditional investments. Early-stage companies building core agentic tools are the primary target.

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Consolidation in this space is expected as the sector matures. TRON sees this as an opportunity to shape the foundational layer of the agentic economy.

As AI agents take on more economic roles, demand for on-chain financial rails will grow steadily. TRON’s expanded fund positions it to meet that demand directly and at scale.

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Bitcoin Bulls Fight To Hold $70K, Derivatives Data Signals Weakness

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Bitcoin Bulls Fight To Hold $70K, Derivatives Data Signals Weakness

Key takeaways:

  • Bearish Bitcoin futures premiums and low call option odds suggest traders remain skeptical despite BTC’s brief 4% relief rally.

  • High oil prices and cautious Fed policy continue to pressure risk assets, while Bitcoin derivatives metrics signal a lack of conviction.

Bitcoin (BTC) surged 4% within minutes of US President Donald Trump announcing his intention to temporarily de-escalate the conflict in Iran and pursue negotiations. While oil prices immediately tumbled 14% to $85 per WTI barrel and the S&P 500 climbed 3%, Bitcoin derivatives metrics continued to signal skepticism and a lack of confidence in the $68,000 support level.

Bitcoin 2-month futures annualized premium. Source: Laevitas.ch

Bitcoin futures traded at a 2% annualized premium relative to regular spot markets on Monday, indicating a lack of demand for bullish leverage. Under neutral conditions, this indicator typically ranges between 4% and 8% to compensate for the longer settlement period. This lack of conviction from bulls has been the norm for the past month, even during a recent rally toward $76,000 on Tuesday.

Short-term gains fail to offset five months of Bitcoin pain

Short-term positive updates regarding the US and Israel-Iran war are unlikely to reverse the pessimism following a five-month price decline. Because the specific causes of Bitcoin’s Oct. 10, 2025, flash crash and its subsequent failure to track traditional markets remain unconfirmed, traders treat any developments with high suspicion.

S&P 500 futures (left) vs. Bitcoin/USD (right). Source: TradingView

This major sell-off occurred alongside rising US import tariffs, including a 100% levy on Chinese goods after China restricted rare earth metal exports. However, the unprecedented $19 billion in liquidations caused the most significant damage, resulting in heavy losses for market makers and traders who utilized cross-margin positions.

Bitcoin options for April 24 at Deribit. Source: Deribit by Coinbase

At the Deribit exchange, the $80,000 Bitcoin call option for April 24 traded at 0.017 BTC ($1,207). With 31 days until expiry and an implied volatility of 48%, the market is pricing in only a 20% chance of Bitcoin reaching $80,000. This low expectation for a 13% monthly gain is rare in cryptocurrency markets, where participants are generally more optimistic.

USD stablecoin premium/discount relative to USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX

USD stablecoins traded at a 1.3% premium against the official US dollar to yuan exchange rate on Monday, indicating that there is not a particular imbalance between buying and selling demand in the region. Typically, high demand for cryptocurrency pushes this premium above the 1.5% neutral range, while panic selling causes stablecoins to trade at a discount.

Federal Reserve’s choice to pause rate cuts keeps investors in fixed-income

The data shows that there is modest resilience in Bitcoin derivative markets, especially since BTC retested the $67,500 level on Monday. Gold’s historic 21% price drop over ten days proved that no asset class is safe when traders fear an economic recession and inflationary risks, especially as fuel prices impact logistics and nearly every sector of the US economy.

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Related: Bitcoin spot volumes fall to 2023 lows as BTC rallies remain news-led

Monday’s 3% relief bounce in the S&P 500 is unlikely to cause investors to exit fixed-income positions, especially as the Fed gave little indication of continuing its monetary easing policy. High interest rates reduce incentives for consumer financing and create a burden for corporate capital costs.

There is undoubtedly a significant dependence on the duration of the war for risk assets, including Bitcoin. Until oil prices revert back to $75 or lower, odds are traders will act cautiously, but additional catalysts may need to emerge for Bitcoin traders to turn bullish, especially considering the persistent lack of conviction in onchain and derivatives metrics.