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Bitcoin Price Faces Conviction Test Near $70,000 Resistance

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Bitcoin Pattern

Bitcoin price is up nearly 5% in the past 24 hours, briefly touching the $70,000 level before pulling back toward $68,000. This rebound helped Bitcoin recover almost 12% from its February 24 low.

But despite this strong move, Bitcoin could not hold above $70,000. This hesitation is not random. It reflects a deeper issue that Dessislava Ianeva, Research Analyst at Nexo, says is still limiting Bitcoin’s recovery. Multiple data points now show that while buy signals are appearing, conviction remains weak. And until Bitcoin clears the $70,000 to $70,800 zone, this recovery may remain incomplete.

Smart Money Signals Price Recovery, But Breakout Still Needs Confirmation

Bitcoin’s recent rebound did not happen without warning. One key indicator called the Smart Money Index (SMI) began rising on February 24. This indicator tracks the trading behavior of informed traders, often linked to strategic positioning. When this index rises, it suggests experienced investors may be positioning early.

The last time this happened was February 13, when the SMI started moving toward the signal line. Back then, the Bitcoin price climbed about 7% over two days.

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Bitcoin Pattern
Bitcoin Pattern: TradingView

This time, the move was stronger. Bitcoin jumped nearly 12%, briefly touching $70,000. At the same time, Bitcoin is now forming what appears to be a cup and handle pattern. This is a bullish structure. It often appears before breakouts.

But the breakout is not confirmed yet. Because Bitcoin is still stuck below the critical upsloping neckline zone between $70,000 and $70,800.

This range now acts as the trigger level. Until Bitcoin crosses it, the pattern remains incomplete.

Nexo Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Price Recovery Still Lacks Conviction

Despite bullish technical signals, the underlying demand is still weak. Trading volume shows this clearly.

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Earlier in February, Bitcoin trading volume reached $125.5 billion. That was during the previous price move. Today, trading volume is around $52 billion. That is more than 58% lower.

Trading Sentiment Weakens
Trading Sentiment Weakens: Santiment

Even more importantly, Dessislava Ianeva confirmed this broader trading participation weakness.

“In 2026, BTC average trading volumes are down roughly 17% versus the 2025 average, reflecting subdued market participation,” Ianeva mentioned

This means fewer participants are supporting the move. This is critical because price rallies need strong participation to sustain themselves. At the same time, open interest has also dropped sharply.

Open interest measures the number of futures positions that are active. Earlier in January, open interest stood near $37.5 billion. Now it is around $21.5 billion. That is a 43% drop. This tells us fewer traders are willing to take large positions.

Ianeva added to this finding by saying that:

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“Derivatives positioning has normalized and funding conditions have cooled, pointing to orderly deleveraging rather than systemic stress.”

This means the market is stabilizing. But it also means aggressive buying pressure is missing. This helps explain why Bitcoin recovery remains slow.

Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Still Selling Despite the Price Bounce

Another major sign of weak conviction, apart from the lack of aggressive buying, comes from Bitcoin’s long-term holders.

The Long-Term Holder Net Position Change metric tracks whether long-term investors are accumulating or selling Bitcoin over a 30-day period. These holders are considered the strongest hands because they typically buy during crashes and sell during market tops.

But right now, they are still selling.

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February 24 showed a net reduction of 78,583 BTC on a 30-day rolling basis. That selling has only slightly slowed to 75,911 BTC recently. This is still significantly higher than the 61,431 BTC reduction seen on February 23.

Long-Term Holders
Long-Term Holders: Glassnode

This shows that even as the Bitcoin price rebounded nearly 12%, long-term holders did not shift into accumulation. Instead, they continued distributing supply.

This creates a major problem for the rally. Because sustainable Bitcoin price recoveries usually begin when long-term holders start buying aggressively, not selling.

Dessislava Ianeva also pointed to this broader lack of conviction as part of the macroeconomic (global economic) concerns.

“Macro uncertainty continues to constrain liquidity, even as crypto-specific excess has largely been cleared and the market is in a healthier position.”

This confirms that while Bitcoin’s structure is improving with excess like leverage being cleared out, strong conviction has not fully returned. Until long-term holders stop selling and begin accumulating again, Bitcoin’s upside may remain limited — especially near major resistance zones like $70,000.

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Supply Cluster at $70,000–$70,800 Is the Real Bitcoin Price Barrier

The strongest reason Bitcoin stalled near $70,000 comes from on-chain supply data. This data is called URPD, or UTXO Realized Price Distribution. It shows where investors last bought their Bitcoin.

Two major supply clusters exist right now. The first sits near $69,400 and holds about 0.93% of supply. The second sits at $70,600 and holds about 0.60% of supply. Together, this zone contains about 1.5% of the total Bitcoin supply.

Fewer Towering Clusters Above $70,600
Fewer Towering Clusters Above $70,600: Glassnode

That makes it one of the strongest resistance zones. This explains why Bitcoin touched $70,000 but could not stay above it.

Investors who bought earlier at these levels are likely selling to break even. This creates selling pressure. But this also explains why breaking $70,800 could change everything.

Above $70,800, supply becomes significantly thinner, as the last key cluster sitting at $70,600 breaks. This means fewer sellers exist, and if Bitcoin breaks above $70,800, the next major target sits near $78,600. This represents a potential upside of over 11%, as projected by the cup-to-neckline distance.

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Also, this level is not random, and the technical resistance aligns with a key URPD cluster as well at $78,200.

BTC Price Resistance
BTC Price Resistance: Glassnode

However, downside risks still exist as the broader trend for the BTC price points lower. Bitcoin must hold above $65,700 to maintain this bullish structure. If Bitcoin falls below $62,400, the bullish pattern would fail completely.

Bitcoin Price Analysis
Bitcoin Price Analysis: TradingView

For now, Bitcoin is stuck at a decision point. Smart money signals show early positioning. But falling trading volume, lower open interest, and strong supply at $70,000 are still blocking the breakout. As the Nexo analyst Dessislava Ianeva explained, the market structure is improving. But conviction is not fully back yet.

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WLFI eyes 180-day staking to reshape governance power

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WLFI eyes 180-day staking to reshape governance power

WLFI proposes 180-day staking, ~2% APR to align governance and USD1 arbitrage.

Summary

  • Unlocked WLFI must be staked at least 180 days to vote.
  • Node (10m WLFI) and Super Node (50m WLFI) tiers add OTC USD1 access, incentives.
  • Target ~2% APR from treasury; 7-day vote, 1b WLFI quorum for approval.

World Liberty Financial (WLFI) has introduced a governance reform proposal that would require token holders to stake their assets to participate in voting, according to a proposal document released by the organization.

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The WLFI Governance Staking System proposes linking influence and rewards to token lock-up duration, representing a potential shift in how governance power is distributed within the WLFI ecosystem, the document stated.

Under the proposal, holders of unlocked WLFI tokens would be required to stake their tokens for a minimum of 180 days to vote on governance matters. Voting power would be calculated using a square root formula that factors in both the amount of tokens locked and the remaining duration of the lock-up, according to the proposal.

Participants who stake their tokens and vote at least twice during their lock period would be eligible for a base reward of approximately 2% annual percentage rate, funded directly from the WLFI treasury, the proposal stated.

The proposal introduces two participation tiers for large stakeholders. The Node Tier would require a minimum stake of 10 million WLFI tokens and provide access to over-the-counter conversion pathways for stablecoins such as USDT and USDC into USD1, along with additional rewards tied to conversion volume, according to the document.

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The Super Node Tier would require a minimum stake of 50 million WLFI tokens and provide priority access to the WLFI team for partnership discussions and potential economic incentives, the proposal stated.

According to the proposal document, the system aims to redirect arbitrage value back into the ecosystem. The proposal states that institutional market makers captured a significant portion of arbitrage opportunities during the expansion of the USD1 stablecoin.

The proposal is open for a seven-day community vote and requires a minimum quorum of 1 billion eligible voting tokens to pass. If approved, implementation would roll out in three phases, beginning with the activation of governance staking for all holders of unlocked WLFI tokens, according to the proposal.

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Centrifuge price explodes as CFG trading goes live on Upbit

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Raydium Altcoin Up
Raydium Altcoin Up
  • Centrifuge price exploded by more than 180% to hit highs of $0.25.
  • The sharp rise followed as news of CFG trading going live on Upbit.
  • Profit-taking threatens to wipe out all the intraday gains as the price hovers near $0.16.

Centrifuge (CFG) has surged dramatically in the past 24 hours, posting gains of over 180% amid excitement over its listing on South Korea’s largest crypto exchange, Upbit.

Notably, the rally aligns with broader market gains, as Bitcoin climbed about 7% to near $70,000 before settling around $68k as of writing.

Several top altcoins also posted positive moves, including Ethereum’s uptick to above $2,000 despite continued selling by co-founder Vitalik Buterin.

On-chain data shows whale accumulation is picking up and could surge as price breaks above the $2k level.

CFG is up amid this potential market bounce, with the Upbit listing a major catalyst.

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However, the overall crypto market sentiment remains cautious, and profit-taking could see a sharp pullback for several altcoins.

Centrifuge price rockets on Upbit listing news

Upbit, South Korea’s leading crypto exchange, announced that trading support for CFG would go live on February 26, 2026, at 2 PM KST.

The exchange added spot pairs against KRW, BTC, and USDT, and revealed that deposits and withdrawals would be available shortly after the announcement.

Upbit boasts a massive user base and liquidity, and these factors have historically seen listed tokens pump hard.

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CFG’s price rose sharply amid the potential flip in visibility and adoption.

The token’s value jumped from around $0.08 to over $0.25, with trading volume spiking over 4,000% to $79 million.

With assets like Polkadot, NEAR, and Uniswap trending among the top 10 gainers, it’s Centrifuge’s vertical jump that stood out.

CFG market cap ballooned past $120 million before slipping lower as prices retreated from the intraday highs.

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Centrifuge price forecast

Centrifuge is a crypto project focused on tokenizing real-world assets (RWAs), a market that’s attracting huge attention.

The CFG token powers governance on the platform, allowing holders to participate in protocol decisions.

Despite market potential, its price has largely followed the bearish trend across crypto.

A short-term upside tied to Upbit’s liquidity influx helped bulls revisit prices last seen in October 2025.

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If Korean inflows persist, buyers could test higher resistances around $0.30 and move to $0.40.

Centrifuge Price Chart
Centrifuge price chart by TradingView

However, broader profit deals have already seen CFG pull back, currently trading near $0.16.

The MACD suggests bullish sentiment, but an extended RSI signals overbought risks.

If prices fall below the 50-day and 100-day simple moving average lines, the nosedive could accelerate to $0.10 or lower.

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Perplexity launches all-in-one AI platform as AMD and Meta expand deal

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Crypto Breaking News

Key insights:

  • Perplexity Computer combines research, coding, design, and deployment in one system, reducing reliance on multiple AI tools.
  • The company shifts to subscriptions and expands features, including patents search, shopping, and Galaxy voice assistant support.
  • AMD and Meta sign a long-term AI infrastructure deal using Instinct GPUs and custom chips to power large-scale model training.

Perplexity introduces unified AI workspace

Perplexity AI unveiled Perplexity Computer, a platform that manages projects from idea to deployment inside a single environment. The system allows users to research information, design products, write code, and launch applications without switching services.

The company reported that the platform also monitors live operations after deployment. Developers can review performance and adjust workflows directly within the interface. Perplexity aims to reduce fragmented workflows that often slow production across multiple AI tools.

Expanding products and subscription strategy

Perplexity has diversified its products over the last one year. In October 2025, it published Perplexity Patents, a component that enables end-users to query filings of global intellectual property using natural language queries. The tool is aimed at researchers, startups and law firms in need of quicker patent analysis.

The firm also partnered with Samsung to integrate its assistant, branded “Hey Plex,” into Galaxy devices. Meanwhile, U.S. Pro users gained an in-app shopping feature linked with commerce platforms such as Shopify. The company ended advertising trials and moved toward a subscription model, citing trust and answer neutrality as priorities.

AMD and Meta scale AI infrastructure

Separately, AMD (NASDAQ: AMD) and Meta (NASDAQ: META) announced a multiyear AI infrastructure agreement valued by analysts near $100 billion. AMD will supply up to six gigawatts of Instinct GPUs for training and inference workloads in Meta’s systems.

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The companies will coordinate silicon, hardware systems, and software development to improve efficiency. Meta will also receive custom chips based on AMD’s MI450 architecture. Initial shipments are scheduled for the second half of the year.

Meta already operates millions of AMD EPYC processors and large numbers of MI300-series GPUs. The new agreement expands collaboration within the Open Compute Project and strengthens Meta’s computing capacity for future AI models.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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USD/JPY Pulls Back After a Period of Gains

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USD/JPY Pulls Back After a Period of Gains

As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair posted solid bullish momentum in the second half of February. This move was driven by a combination of fundamental factors, including:

→ The appointment of two academics to the central bank’s board, both regarded as strong advocates of economic stimulus through a weaker yen and accommodative lending conditions.

→ Concerns over further interest rate hikes, voiced by Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi during a meeting with Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda.

Expectations of a softer yen led to renewed weakness in the currency (A→B), forming the upward trajectory highlighted in purple.

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However, on Wednesday the pair retreated, which appears to be an interim pullback from point B. Technical analysis of the USD/JPY chart suggests that extending the move along the purple trajectory may prove challenging.

Factors that could favour the bears include:

→ The median line of the ascending channel (constructed from key reversal points marked by thicker lines). The median often acts as a balance zone where supply and demand converge and trends lose momentum.

→ The proximity of the significant 157.70 resistance level, which already acted as resistance in 2025. Although price broke above it in January 2026 (with the level briefly showing signs of support), following the sharp sell-off on 23 January it once again served as a barrier for bulls on 9 February.

→ Trend line R, drawn through the lower highs of 2026.

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Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that the lower purple boundary may be breached by bears, potentially leading the market into a period of consolidation while awaiting fresh economic and political catalysts.

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OCC Stablecoin Proposal Targets Yield, Sets Stage for CLARITY Act

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OCC Stablecoin Proposal Targets Yield, Sets Stage for CLARITY Act

The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) has dropped a 376‑page proposal to implement the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins (GENIUS) Act that looks to settle the ongoing stablecoin yield fight.

The proposal is open to public comment for 60 days from Wednesday’s publication date, and sets out detailed rules for permitted payment stablecoin issuers under the OCC’s jurisdiction.

Supervised entities would be barred from paying any form of interest or yield, whether in cash, tokens, or other consideration, “solely in connection with the holding, use, or retention” of a payment stablecoin, consistent with section 4(a)(11) of the GENIUS Act

Thania Charmani, partner at global law firm Winston & Strawn, commented on X that the OCC proposed to “resolve the debate on stablecoin yield through rulemaking,” potentially clearing the way for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (CLARITY) to “proceed without that provision.”

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How the OCC proposal implements GENIUS on yield

GENIUS, enacted in July 2025, created a federal framework for payment stablecoins and restricted issuance in the US to licensed permitted issuers such as bank subsidiaries, new federal stablecoin issuers, and certain large state‑regulated firms. 

OCC Requests Comments on Proposal to Implement GENIUS Act. Source: OCC

The OCC’s draft rule translates that statutory framework into operational constraints, including tight limits on how GENIUS‑regulated issuers can structure economics around their stablecoins.

The proposal goes a step further, adding a rebuttable presumption that an issuer is violating the ban on paying yield if it has an arrangement to pay yield to an affiliate or “related third party” and that entity then pays yield to holders of the issuer’s payment stablecoin. 

Related: Ripple CEO confirms White House meeting between crypto, banking reps

Issuers can try to rebut the presumption by submitting written materials to the OCC, but the agency stresses the “close nexus” between issuer payments and end‑holder yield and frames such structures as “highly likely” attempts to evade the statute.

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​The proposal also draws two explicit carve‑outs. It “is not intended to prevent” merchants from independently offering discounts for using payment stablecoins, and it does not bar an issuer from sharing profits from the stablecoin with a non‑affiliate partner in a whitelabel arrangement. 

What the proposal means for CLARITY and Coinbase

If the OCC’s proposed rule is finalized as drafted, it would have direct implications for the separate CLARITY Act debate over stablecoin rewards

CLARITY drafts have focused on whether digital asset service providers should be allowed to pay yield or rewards on payment stablecoin balances, a point of contention that has already caused friction between industry stakeholders, such as Coinbase.

By using GENIUS implementation to prohibit yield at the issuer level, the banking side of the framework effectively establishes a no‑yield baseline for GENIUS‑compliant payment stablecoins.

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For Coinbase and similar firms that have argued they should be able to offer yield on stablecoin balances while operating within a fully regulated US framework, the message is clear:

Stablecoin yield and GENIUS‑compliant, OCC‑supervised payment stablecoins are being put on opposite sides of a regulatory line.

Big Questions: Is China hoarding gold so yuan becomes global reserve instead of USD?