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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes on AI, Oil Price, and War Against Crypto

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Bitcoin price is not doing badly at all, but Arthur Hayes drops his most provocative macro prediction yet. Middle East?

Bitcoin price is not doing badly at all, but Arthur Hayes drops his most provocative macro prediction yet, and the biggest threat to BTC isn’t missiles over the Middle East. Hayes, Maelstrom CIO and BitMEX co-founder, is calling $500K–$750K by end-2026, but the path there runs through a deflationary minefield that isn’t pricing in.

In a wide-ranging Coinage YouTube interview, Hayes argued that AI-driven displacement of high-income knowledge workers is the dominant deflationary force compressing crypto sentiment right now. Oil futures do reflect Israel-Iran geopolitical tensions, Hayes concedes, but the layoff cascade from AI adoption tightens credit, cuts consumption, and delays the liquidity surge Bitcoin needs.

He frames BTC explicitly as a “liquidity smoke alarm,” something that doesn’t move until the credit taps open. With RSI sitting at a neutral, the chart agrees: Bitcoin is waiting. Middle East developments remain a live variable for short-term volatility either way.

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: War and AI Collide?

Bitcoin current price of $70,700 places it in a well-defined prediction zone. The key technical level traders are watching is the $76,000 resistance above, with support anchoring near current prices and a deeper downside scenario targeting $75K before any meaningful rebound, per Hayes’ own near-term roadmap.

RSI at 50-ish signals neither overbought enthusiasm nor capitulation, more of consolidation with directional tension building underneath.

If Israel-Iran conflict triggers emergency Fed liquidity measures, BTC can clear $76K resistance and accelerate toward 30% of Hayes’ intermediate $250K target on the back of historical rate-cut tailwinds post-geopolitical stress.

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Bitcoin price is not doing badly at all, but Arthur Hayes drops his most provocative macro prediction yet. Middle East?
BTC USD, TradingView

However, AI deflation and credit tightening would likely keep BTC range-bound between $70K–$74K through Q3 2026, with a breakout contingent on Fed signaling a pivot.

AI layoff acceleration could also deepen the deflationary shock faster than war-driven liquidity can offset it; Bitcoin price might retests sub-$70K, invalidating Hayes’s prediction for the year-end.

It’s worth remembering (Hayes himself would likely not mind the reminder) that his $200K by March 2026 call went unfulfilled as BTC lingered near $71K. Bold targets require bold catalysts. The Fed and the battlefield are the only two variables that matter right now.

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LiquidChain Fixes What BTC and Alts Can’t

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Bitcoin at $70,000 with resistance at $76,000 tells a familiar story for cycle veterans: the big move hasn’t happened yet, and large-cap BTC at current prices offers asymmetric upside only if Hayes’ macro thesis fully materializes, a significant if.

LiquidChain ($LIQUID) is positioning itself as a cross-chain infrastructure for exactly the liquidity environment Hayes describes. The Layer 3 project fuses Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana liquidity into a single execution environment.

With Liquid, developers deploy once, access all three ecosystems simultaneously through its Unified Liquidity Layer and Single-Step Execution architecture. Verifiable Settlement and Deploy-Once Architecture reduce the fragmentation cost that has historically bled value from cross-chain protocols.

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The presale has raised north of $650K at a current price of $0.01449. LiquidChain is approaching the $1M presale milestone, which tends to accelerate retail attention, especially with its 1600% APY staking bonus.

Research LiquidChain here.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Arthur Hayes on AI, Oil Price, and War Against Crypto appeared first on Cryptonews.

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Foundry’s institutional Zcash pool captures a third of new issuance

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Cyclops raises $8m for enterprise stablecoin infrastructure

Foundry’s U.S.‑based, compliance‑first Zcash pool has already grown to roughly one‑third of network hashrate, giving institutional miners a regulated way into privacy coins while stoking fresh centralisation fears.

Summary

  • Bitcoin mining giant Foundry has launched an institutional Zcash pool that already accounts for roughly one‑third of new ZEC issuance.
  • The U.S.‑based, compliance‑focused pool is pitched at institutional and public miners as a “purpose‑built” alternative to offshore privacy‑coin infrastructure.
  • Foundry argues Zcash’s zero‑knowledge privacy with selective disclosure makes it more compatible with regulation than rivals like Monero.

Foundry Digital, operator of the Foundry USA Bitcoin mining pool, has officially launched an institutional‑grade Zcash (ZEC) mining pool that has quickly grown to around 30% of the network’s hashrate, consolidating a significant share of new ZEC issuance under a single U.S.‑regulated operator. The Rochester, New York‑based firm, which Fortune notes already commands about 31% of global Bitcoin production, is positioning its new pool as the default home for institutional miners seeking exposure to privacy‑focused assets without abandoning compliance.finance.

In a Business Wire release, Foundry said the Zcash pool has seen “rapid and sustained hashrate growth reaching ~30% of the current Zcash network hashrate” since it was first announced on March 11, with “multiple institutional mining customers already onboarded and contributing hashrate.” The company stressed that the pool is “designed for professional mining organizations and public companies that require a U.S.-based, compliance-ready partner, including KYC verification in line with Foundry’s institutional standards,” mirroring the governance of its Bitcoin operation.

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Foundry CEO Mike Colyer framed the move as both a bet on Zcash and a response to unmet institutional demand. “Zcash has matured into an institutional‑grade asset, but the mining infrastructure supporting it hasn’t kept pace,” he said, adding that the new pool is “purpose‑built for the operational and compliance requirements of institutional and public miners.”

A CoinMarketCap summary of the launch notes that the pool will offer know‑your‑customer and anti‑money‑laundering checks, transparent payout calculations, reporting tools and 24/7 technical support, with no minimum hashrate required to join.

Zcash, launched in 2016, relies on zero‑knowledge proofs (zk‑SNARKs) to enable shielded transactions that hide sender, receiver and amount while still allowing selective disclosure to auditors or regulators. Foundry and several commentators have argued that this “privacy with a view key” model is more compatible with institutional compliance than fully opaque systems like Monero, which lack native mechanisms for selective transparency.

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At the same time, the arrival of a U.S. pool with roughly one‑third of Zcash’s hashrate raises familiar centralisation questions. Unfolded and other mining trackers have previously highlighted that Foundry USA already coordinates about 30% of Bitcoin’s global hashrate, and Mempool.space data shows the pool averaging more than 340 exahashes per second on Bitcoin alone. Adding a Zcash operation that quickly captures around one‑third of ZEC issuance further concentrates influence over block production in a single corporate group, albeit one that stresses its role in “contribut[ing] to the decentralization of Bitcoin’s hashrate” by anchoring North American capacity.

For Zcash, the trade‑off is stark: institutional capital and hashpower are flowing in through a U.S.‑regulated gateway that validates the project’s positioning as a compliant privacy coin, but at the cost of a more concentrated mining landscape. As regulators in the U.S., EU and Hong Kong tighten their grip on stablecoins, exchanges and tokenized assets — a trend explored in recent crypto.news coverage of HKDAP’s launch, MiCA implementation and the CLARITY Act — Zcash’s bet is that privacy with selective disclosure, plus a mining pool built for auditors rather than cypherpunks, is a price worth paying for long‑term relevance.

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Bitcoin’s 50% Drawdown ‘Priced In’ Quantum Computing Threat: Bernstein

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Bitcoin's 50% Drawdown ‘Priced In’ Quantum Computing Threat: Bernstein

Bernstein said Monday that Bitcoin’s selloff has already priced in much of the market’s fear around quantum computing, arguing that the threat is real but still manageable rather than an immediate existential risk.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) near 50% drawdown from its $126,198 all-time high in October 2025 is proof that the market has “priced in” several risks tied to a quantum breakthrough, partly thanks to technological progress on zero-knowledge privacy and quantum-proof cryptography that “counterbalance” the AI and quantum acceleration, Bernstein said in a Monday note shared with Cointelegraph.

The note lands two weeks after Google researchers said future quantum computers could break the elliptic-curve cryptography used across many blockchains with fewer than 500,000 physical qubits in some architectures, reviving debate over how quickly Bitcoin needs a post-quantum upgrade path. This research suggested a quantum computer could crack a Bitcoin private key in nine minutes, in a theoretical scenario, which is less than Bitcoin’s 10-minute block production time.

However, Bernstein said Bitcoin core developers have “adequate time” to determine a post-quantum path. Last week, Bernstein predicted that Bitcoin has about three to five years to prepare for a post-quantum security upgrade, Cointelegraph reported on Wednesday.

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Graph showing the risk that an on-spend quantum attack that takes 9 minutes to derive a private key succeeds against Bitcoin. Source: Google Quantum AI

Institutions will play constructive role in quantum-proofing Bitcoin

Bernstein said large institutional holders, including exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and corporate treasury buyers such as Strategy, are likely to play a constructive role in any eventual consensus on a post-quantum upgrade.

“We expect institutional partners with now billions at stake to play a constructive role in building consensus on the post-quantum path.”

The note also highlighted the recently introduced BIP-360 proposal and added that slower consensus from Bitcoin developers is seen as responsible behavior when it comes to a $1.5 trillion asset.

BIP-360 is a draft Bitcoin Improvement Proposal that proposes a Pay-to-Merkle-Root output type designed to reduce long-exposure quantum risk by removing Taproot’s key-path vulnerability, though it does not itself add post-quantum digital signatures.

Bernstein said BIP-360 could be implemented as a soft fork for exposed Bitcoin addresses, but added that this would still leave around 8% of the BTC supply in inactive addresses vulnerable to future quantum breakthroughs.

Related: Bitcoiners push for quantum-resistant BIP-360 upgrade as debate heats up

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Quantum-proofing Bitcoin is a social issue, not technical

The real challenge of quantum-proofing Bitcoin lies in the societal adoption element of the new standards, not the technical development, according to Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos blockchain.

“The coding work could be done this afternoon,” but Bitcoin holders would still need to migrate to this new standard, Breitman told Cointelegraph during an interview at EthCC 2026.

“If Bitcoin needed to migrate in the next month, they could do it from a technical perspective […] but they can’t get everyone to migrate their key in a month, Breitman said. “It’s going to take years for people to properly migrate their keys,” he added.

Arthur Breitman, co-founder of Tezos, interview at EthCC 2026. Source: Cointelegraph

Asset manager Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, shared a similar view in a research report last Monday. He said Bitcoin’s quantum-proofing challenges are “more social than technical,” provided that its UTXO model does not have native smart contracts and that some address types are not quantum vulnerable.

However, he warned that the community needs to find consensus on how to quantum-proof wallets where the private key has been lost or is otherwise inaccessible.

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Magazine: AI has dramatically accelerated the quantum threat to Bitcoin: AI Eye