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Bitcoin Price Shows Bottom Signal Not Seen Since 2022

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Bitcoin Supply In Profit

Bitcoin has attempted to recover in recent sessions, but upward momentum has stalled as the market waits for a clearer direction. Price remains range-bound after a sharp correction, frustrating short-term traders. 

Despite this pause, historical indicators suggest a bottom may be forming. Past cycles show similar conditions often precede renewed recovery phases.

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Bitcoin Profitable Supply Hits 2022 Level

Bitcoin’s recent decline triggered a signal last seen during the 2022 bear market. The percentage of supply in profit fell to around 50%, meaning half of all circulating BTC is now underwater. This threshold has historically coincided with market bottoms rather than prolonged sell-offs.

When profitable supply compresses to these levels, selling incentives weaken. Holders become less willing to realize losses, reducing sell-side pressure. In previous cycles, this dynamic encouraged investors to hold through volatility, allowing the price to stabilize before recovery resumed.

Want more token insights like this? Sign up for Editor Harsh Notariya’s Daily Crypto Newsletter here.

Bitcoin Supply In Profit
Bitcoin Supply In Profit. Source: Glassnode

Lower prices also attract fresh capital. Value-oriented buyers tend to enter when downside risk appears limited relative to upside potential. This influx of new demand has historically helped revive Bitcoin recoveries once profitable supply falls to or below the 50% mark.

Why Is Bitcoin Likely To Bounce Back?

Macro indicators reinforce the bottoming narrative. The Pi Cycle Top Indicator, which compares the 111-day moving average to a doubled 350-day moving average, remains far from signaling BTC overheating. This indicator historically flags major tops when the shorter average crosses the higher threshold.

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Currently, the opposite setup is unfolding. The shorter moving average is diverging below the longer one, signaling cooling conditions rather than excess speculation. In past cycles, such divergence often preceded sustained rebounds as Bitcoin reset from overheated levels.

Bitcoin Pi Cyle Top Indicator
Bitcoin Pi Cyle Top Indicator. Source: Glassnode

This cycle differs from prior ones. Since March 2023, Bitcoin has maintained a macro uptrend without excessive overheating. Gradual price appreciation limited speculative excess, making this the first clear bottom signal in nearly three years rather than a sharp capitulation-driven low.

BTC Price Levels To Watch

In the short term, Bitcoin is holding above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement near $63,007. At the time of writing, BTC trades around $68,905, maintaining support despite repeated tests. However, price remains capped below the $71,672 resistance, limiting immediate upside.

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If on-chain signals continue holding and inflows strengthen, Bitcoin could break above $71,672. Such a move would open the path toward $78,676. Stronger confirmation of recovery would come only if BTC reclaims $85,680 as a sustained support level.

Bitcoin Price Analysis.
Bitcoin Price Analysis. Source: TradingView

Risks remain on the downside due to the shifting market structure. The short-term holder to long-term holder supply ratio has moved above its upper band. This reflects growing short-term participation, often linked to higher volatility. 

Bitcoin STH/LTH Supply Ratio
Bitcoin STH/LTH Supply Ratio. Source: Glassnode

This would hurt Bitcoin’s price chances of crossing the $71,672 barrier, continuing its consolidation. Even if BTC does push past said resistance, the selling will pull it back down towards $63,000, invalidating the bullish thesis.

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Crypto World

Flow Network Incident Resolved as HTX Restores Full FLOW Services

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Nexo Partners with Bakkt for US Crypto Exchange and Yield Programs

TLDR:

  • HTX confirms all FLOW assets remained intact during the Flow network incident and verification process
  • Flow developers patched the vulnerability responsible for abnormal transactions on December 27
  • HTX restored FLOW trading, deposits, and withdrawals after verifying network stability
  • Exchange removed its January notice following Flow’s detailed post-incident security report

Flow blockchain’s December security incident has reached a full resolution after coordination between the network and major exchange HTX. 

The update confirms the vulnerability responsible for abnormal transactions has been patched and network operations restored. HTX also verified that all user-held FLOW tokens on its platform remain intact. 

Trading, deposits, and withdrawals for the token have resumed normal operations.

Flow Network Incident Resolved as HTX Confirms Normal Operations

The Flow ecosystem shared an update confirming that the issue reported on December 27 has been fully resolved. The incident involved abnormal transactions triggered by a technical vulnerability on the network.

HTX activated internal emergency procedures once it detected the event. The exchange maintained communication with Flow ecosystem partners while monitoring the situation.

The latest update indicates that developers patched the vulnerability and restored normal network activity. The Flow team also identified and addressed abnormal minted assets during the review process.

Flow stated that ecosystem services have stabilized after the corrective actions. Network operations now function normally across supported platforms.

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HTX verified user asset balances during the investigation period. The exchange reported that all FLOW tokens held by customers remain fully validated.

HTX Restores FLOW Trading, Deposits, and Withdrawals

HTX confirmed that FLOW trading resumed after reviewing the network’s recovery. Deposits and withdrawals for the token now operate without restrictions.

The exchange initially issued a notice about the incident on January 13. That notice questioned the security status of the Flow network at the time.

HTX later removed the notice after reviewing the Flow Foundation’s post-incident report. According to HTX, the report provided detailed explanations addressing earlier concerns.

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The exchange stated that the new information clarified how developers handled the vulnerability. It also confirmed that the response restored stability across the network.

Flow Foundation acknowledged the collaboration between both organizations during the investigation period. The foundation stated it expects continued cooperation with HTX moving forward.

HTX reiterated that user asset security remains its top priority. The exchange said it will continue monitoring supported networks and working with ecosystem partners.

The update confirms the incident no longer affects current operations. FLOW trading infrastructure across HTX now runs under normal conditions.

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BTC slips below $68,000 as dollar posts steepest weekly gain

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Bitcoin fails to sustain breakout momentum as rate hikes beckon: Crypto Markets Today

Bitcoin fell to $67,960 by Saturday morning, down 3.4% over the past 24 hours and retreating sharply from the past week’s high. The move fits what has become a recurring script in recent months, with late-week selling dragging prices toward the lower end of the range heading into Saturday.

Majors took the harder hit again. Ether dropped 4.4% to $1,974, solana fell 4% to $84.31, dogecoin lost 2.9% to $0.09, and BNB slid 2.6% to $627. XRP fell 2.2% to $1.37.

The weekly picture tells a more nuanced story though. Bitcoin is still up 3.6% over seven days. Ether has gained 2.6%. BNB added 2.1%. The mid-week surge absorbed the war shock and then some, even if Friday’s pullback took the shine off.

Meanwhile, the dollar posted its steepest weekly gain in a year, strengthening as markets priced in higher energy costs, stickier inflation, and a Fed that has even less room to cut rates. That’s a direct headwind for bitcoin and every other asset denominated against the dollar.

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“As tensions escalated in the Middle East last week, investors moved quickly to the safety of the U.S. dollar, which strengthened as markets began pricing in higher energy prices and reignited inflation fears, potentially delaying Federal Reserve rate cuts,” said Björn Schmidtke, CEO of Aurelion, in an email to CoinDesk.

The on-chain data paints a fragile picture beneath the surface. Glassnode data shows 43% of bitcoin’s total market supply is now sitting at a loss. That’s a significant overhang.

As bitcoin recovers, those underwater holders have an incentive to sell into any rally to break even, creating persistent resistance on the way up. It’s one reason the push to $74,000 on Thursday couldn’t hold. Every bounce toward higher prices runs into supply from people who’ve been waiting months to get out.

One bright spot came from stablecoin flows. Messari recorded a 415% jump in net stablecoin inflows to $1.7 billion over the week, with daily transfers up nearly 10%. That’s potentially dry powder waiting to be deployed, and it suggests retail isn’t entirely absent despite the fear-heavy sentiment. Whether that capital rotates into bitcoin or waits for lower prices is the question.

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The war continues to set the tempo. The U.S.-Iran conflict showed no signs of resolution this week. Oil remains elevated. The Strait of Hormuz is still disrupted. And the macro backdrop of strong dollar, sticky inflation, and delayed rate cuts is the worst combination for risk assets.

Bitcoin’s week looked impressive in headlines, touching $74,000 mid-week, but the round trip from $68,000 to $74,000 and back to $68,000 is just another lap of the range.

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Bitcoin Dip May Not Be Over As Retail Ramps Up Buying: Santiment

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Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Adoption

Retail investors have been scooping up Bitcoin after it slipped below $70,000, but whale activity suggests the price could still head lower if past patterns repeat, according to crypto sentiment platform Santiment.

“The moment Bitcoin hit $74k, these key stakeholders began taking profit,” Santiment said in a report on Friday.

Santiment explained that whales — those holding between 10 and 10,000 Bitcoin (BTC) — “accumulated heavily” between Feb. 23 and Mar. 3, when Bitcoin was trading between $62,900 and $69,600.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Adoption
Whales (green line) have been selling, while retail investors (red line) have been buying more Bitcoin. Source: Santiment

Since Wednesday, when Bitcoin climbed past $70,000 and touched $74,000, the cohort has offloaded around 66% of their recent purchases, Santiment said. Meanwhile, retail investors — those holding below 0.01 Bitcoin — have been increasing their positions.

Correction may not be over yet, says Santiment

“When retail buys while whales sell, it typically signals that the correction is not yet over,” Santiment said. Bitcoin is trading at $67,984 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap.

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Bitcoin’s price decline led the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to fall 6 points, pushing it further into “Extreme Fear” territory with a score of 12 on Saturday.

MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe shared a similar outlook, saying a further decline is possible. “If Bitcoin doesn’t find support in this $67-68K region, then we’re likely going to retest the lows for liquidity before bouncing back upwards,” van de Poppe said in an X post on Friday.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs post largest outflow day in three weeks

The decline coincided with US-based spot Bitcoin ETFs posting their largest outflow day since Feb. 12, with a total of $348.9 million in net outflows across the 11 ETF products, according to Farside data.

Related: Trump’s National Cyber Strategy pledges to support crypto and blockchain

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Bitcoin’s price fell as low as $60,000 on Feb. 6 during its downtrend from the October all-time high of $126,000 before showing a modest recovery. Economist Timothy Peterson suggests this level could be the floor for the time being.

“This valuation level has always marked a bottom for Bitcoin. About 99.5% chance it stays above $60k,” Peterson said in an X post, referring to the Bitcoin Price to Metcalfe Value chart.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen