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Bitcoin price stalls in low volatility, why $65,000 is at risk

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Bitcoin price stalls in low volatility conditions, why $65,000 support is at risk - 1

Bitcoin price is consolidating beneath major resistance near $72,400 as volatility compresses and momentum weakens.

Summary

  • Key Resistance: $72,400 aligns with the value area high and 0.618 Fibonacci level.
  • Low Volatility: The current rally shows weak volume and limited momentum.
  • Support Target: $65,000 acts as the next major support within the range.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action has entered a period of low volatility as the market consolidates beneath a major resistance cluster near the upper boundary of its current trading range. After previously rejecting the $72,400 range high, the asset has rallied back toward the value area high but is now struggling to build sufficient momentum to push higher.

With trading volume declining during the current move, the probability of a rejection and a move toward lower support levels is beginning to increase.

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Bitcoin price key technical points

  • Major Resistance: $72,400 range high aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci and value area high.
  • Low-Volume Rally: Weak momentum suggests the current move lacks strong buyer participation.
  • Downside Target: Potential rotation toward $65,000 support.
Bitcoin price stalls in low volatility conditions, why $65,000 support is at risk - 1
BTCUSDT (4H) Chart, Source: TradingView

Bitcoin’s current price structure is centered around the value area high, a key technical level derived from the volume profile that often acts as a pivot for price direction. This region also aligns closely with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement and the broader range resistance located near $72,400. When multiple technical indicators converge at the same level, the zone often becomes a strong barrier for price continuation.

Previously, Bitcoin attempted to break above this range high but formed a deviation above the level before quickly moving back into the range. Such deviations typically signal weakening momentum, as they indicate that buyers were unable to sustain price above resistance. The rejection from that level established $72,400 as a clear ceiling within the current trading structure.

Since that rejection, Bitcoin has gradually moved back toward the upper boundary of the range, but the recovery has occurred under noticeably lower trading volume. In technical analysis, volume often acts as a confirmation signal for price movement. Strong breakouts usually require expanding volume to demonstrate strong participation from market participants.

When price approaches major resistance levels on declining volume, it frequently suggests that the move lacks conviction. This type of environment often precedes a rejection or a continuation of the broader range structure rather than a sustained breakout.

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As a result, the current low-volatility consolidation may simply represent a pause before the market expands toward the next liquidity zone. In range-bound markets, price tends to oscillate between the value area high and value area low as traders search for liquidity and rebalance positions. 

Recent analysis from CryptoQuant also suggests Bitcoin may be approaching a supply shock, as retail investors continue selling while long-term holders keep their coins dormant, a dynamic that could tighten available supply once volatility returns.

If Bitcoin rejects from the current resistance cluster, the next major support sits near $65,000. This level represents an internal support zone within the broader trading range and aligns closely with the value area low. Because of this confluence, it becomes a natural liquidity target for price if selling pressure begins to increase.

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A rotation toward $65,000 would maintain the broader range structure that has defined Bitcoin’s price action between approximately $60,600 and $72,400. Such movements are common during consolidation phases, where price repeatedly tests both sides of the range before a decisive breakout eventually occurs.

However, the loss of the $65,000 support level could significantly increase downside risk. If price breaks below this internal support, the probability of a sharper decline toward the lower boundary of the range around $60,600 would increase. This region represents the next major liquidity pool that has not yet been fully tapped during the current trading cycle.

From a market structure perspective, this means that Bitcoin is currently positioned at a technically sensitive point. Consolidation beneath resistance often leads to volatility expansion, and the direction of that expansion is typically determined by which key level fails first.

What to expect in the coming price action

As long as Bitcoin remains below the $72,400 resistance zone, the probability favors a rotational move toward the $65,000 support region. A break below this level could open the door to deeper downside toward the $60,600 range low, while a strong breakout above resistance with increasing volume would invalidate the bearish outlook.

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Crypto World

Bitcoin rangebound as altcoins rally while derivatives signal downside risk: Crypto Markets Today

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Bitcoin rangebound as altcoins rally while derivatives signal downside risk: Crypto Markets Today

The crypto market continued to exhibit signs of choppiness on Friday, with bitcoin trading at $67,000 in the middle of a trading range that spans back to early February.

A selection of altcoins picked up during the lower liquidity Asia hours, prompting the likes of ALGO and RENDER to post double-digit gains over the past 24 hours.

But the wider picture remains the same; the crypto market is trading in a macro downtrend dating back to October, characterized by a series of lower highs nad lower lows.

U.S. equities trade flat on Friday as volatility continues to cool since Donald Trump’s comments about a potential end to the war in Iran on Monday.

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Brent crude oil is trading at $109 a barrel, indicating that an end to the war is perhaps not as close as some analysts are predicting.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Futures markets for Bitcoin and Ethereum remained subdued, with the extended holiday weekend keeping trading volumes thin. Open interest in both assets was largely unchanged over the past 24 hours.
  • Open interest in Solana futures has climbed to over 65 million SOL, its highest level since Feb. 7. The increase, combined with negative funding rates and an OI-adjusted cumulative volume delta, suggests traders are increasingly positioning for downside, with short sellers showing greater conviction.
  • Similar bearish market dynamics are present TRX and BCH.
  • OI in Privacy-focused Zcash (ZEC) futures have steadied near 1.70 million ZEC for the third straight day. ZEC’s CVD is also the highest among majors. This combination suggests sustained positioning with strong directional conviction, likely driven by aggressive buying pressure.
  • Bitcoin’s 30-day implied volatility index has declined to 51.28%, the lowest since Feb. The market shows no signs of panic whatsoever despite geopolitical concerns and energy market volatility.
  • Ether’s volatility index has slipped to 72.55%, the lowest since Feb. 26.
  • On Deribit, bitcoin and ether puts continue to trade pricier than calls, indicating a bias for downside protection.
  • Glassnode said that the dealer gamma exposure below $68,000, all the way down to $50,000 is negative. This means that dealers could sell in a falling market to hedge their exposure, adding to downside volatility.

Token talk

  • The altcoin market has been relatively resilient to crypto’s choppy behavior this week, certain portions of the market have outperformed bitcoin and crypto majors, particularly DeFi and AI tokens.
  • The DeFi Select Index (DFX) is up by 1.3% since midnight UTC, while the CoinDesk Computing Select Index (CPUS) rose by 1.5%, beating the bitcoin-heavy benchmarks likes the CoinDesk 20 (CD20), which is up by just 0.16% on Friday.
  • The outperformance of certain altcoins is symptomatic of a consolidating market. When bitcoin and the majors trade flat, traders often speculate on lower liquidity altcoins. That speculation typically grinds to a halt when bitcoin is back deciding the next major market move.

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Pyth soars 9% following Polymarket integration. Will it rally higher?

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Pyth soars 9% following Polymarket integration. Will it rally higher?

Key takeaways

  • PYTH is up 9% in the last 24 hours, outperforming other major cryptocurrencies.
  • The rally comes following Pyth Network’s integration with Polymarket.

PYTH, the native coin of the Pyth Network, is one of the best performers in the crypto market over the past 24 hours. It could rally higher in the near term as the broader market recovers from Thursday’s slump.

PYTH rallies on Polymarket integration

On Thursday, Pyth Network revealed in a blog post that Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market platform, has integrated Pyth Pro as its data source for a new suite of traditional asset contracts.

The initial offerings include gold, silver, and major equity index ETFs. Polymarket now relies on Pyth Pro’s data to power its daily up/down and daily close markets, with live price charts updated every second to ensure full transparency.

The integration has seen PYTH rally by 9% in the last 24 hours and now trades at $0.0420 per coin. 

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Pyth Pro provides real-time price data through WebSocket, which Polymarket samples every second to display as a live “price to beat” chart. This allows traders to monitor the market’s status relative to their position in real-time.

The selected assets span a wide range of traditional finance, including major equity indices, commodities like gold, silver, WTI crude, and natural gas, along with over a dozen high-profile U.S. equities such as TSLA, COIN, and PLTR.

Polymarket has integrated this real-time data as a key component of its perpetual futures trading platform. Pyth Pro delivers institutional-grade market data directly from top firms, ensuring it is accurate, transparent, and affordable across all asset classes and regions.

To enhance this, Pyth has partnered with industry leaders and government agencies like Cboe, Jane Street, Revolut, and the U.S. Department of Commerce. This collaboration has helped establish a new model to make market data more accessible, accurate, and transparent.

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PYTH eyes $0.050 as bulls step in

The PYTH/USD 4-hour chart is bearish and efficient despite the coin adding 9% to its value in the last 24 hours.

The technical indicators have flipped bullish, indicating that the bulls are now in control of the market. The RSI of 63 is well above the neutral 50 and would enter the overbought territory if the rally persists.

PYTH/USDT 4H Chart

The MACD lines are also within the positive region, indicating a strong bullish bias. If the rally continues, PYTH could retest the $0.050 psychological level for the first time since March 17.

However, if the bears regain control, PYTH could retest the Thursday low of $0.038 over the next few hours or days.

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Drift Seeks Contact With The Hacker After $280M Exploit

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Drift Seeks Contact With The Hacker After $280M Exploit

Drift Protocol, a Solana-based decentralized exchange (DEX), said Friday it had opened onchain contact with wallets tied to funds stolen in the exploit that outside firms have estimated at roughly $280 million to $286 million.

Drift said on X that it had initiated onchain contact with wallets holding the stolen Ether (ETH), seeking to open a line of communication.

The team sent onchain messages from its Ethereum address (0x0934faC) to four wallets linked to the exploiter at the time of publication, urging the attacker to reach out via Blockscan chat. “We are ready to speak,” Drift said.

Onchain messaging has become a common tactic in exploit response, allowing protocols to communicate directly with attackers while preserving anonymity. In past cases, such as the Euler Finance hack, similar outreach led to the partial recovery of funds.

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Drift’s onchain message to the Drift Exploiter on Friday. Source: Etherscan

Anonymous sender tries to pressure the attacker

Drift’s communication came hours after an unknown sender using the ENS name readnow.eth also reached out to wallets linked to the attacker on Thursday via onchain messages.

The sender claimed to know the identities behind the attack and demanded a payment of 1,000 ETH in exchange for withholding information.

Source: Etherscan

The claims could not be independently verified and may represent an attempt to mislead or pressure the wallet holder. The incident highlights how, alongside official communications, unverified messages can circulate onchain after crypto exploits.

Solana fallout keeps spreading

According to SolanaFloor, Drift’s exploit has so far affected at least 20 Solana protocols, including the decentralized finance (DeFi) platform Gauntlet, which was estimated to be impacted to the scale of $6.4 million.

Blockchain security platform Cyvers said the impact was still expanding as of Friday morning, with no funds being recovered 48 hours past the attack.

Cyvers said that the attack was likely a “weeks-long, staged operation,” noting that the attacker set up durable nonces, a Solana feature allowing users to pre-sign transactions for future execution, days before the exploit.

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Related: Crypto hackers steal $169M from 34 DeFi protocols in Q1: DefiLlama

“This closely mirrors the Bybit hack, different technique, same root issue: signers unknowingly approving malicious transactions,” Cyvers added.

Some industry observers, including Ledger chief technology officer Charles Guillemet, suggested the exploit may involve North Korea-linked actors, though details remain unconfirmed.

Magazine: Nobody knows if quantum secure cryptography will even work

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