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Bitcoin Risks Test of $58K Support as On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate: Analyst

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Bitcoin Risks Test of $58K Support as On-Chain Metrics Deteriorate: Analyst


Bitcoin’s late-January plunge triggered $2 billion in liquidations, broke crucial supports, and left nearly half of the supply underwater, Galaxy found.

Bitcoin (BTC) has tried to recover above $78,000 after sustaining devastating losses over the weekend, but the bears took the upper hand and pushed the price back down. Galaxy Digital research head Alex Thorn said recent on-chain data and market structure suggest continued downside risk for BTC.

The researcher cited weak momentum, macroeconomic uncertainty, and missing catalysts, indicating further pain rather than relief.

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Downtrend Firms Up

In the latest research note, Thorn pointed to the sharp sell-off late last month, during which Bitcoin fell 15% between January 28 and 31, while the decline accelerated into the weekend. On Saturday alone, a roughly 10% drop triggered one of the largest liquidation events on record. More than $2 billion in long positions were liquidated across futures trading venues.

During the move, BTC fell as low as $75,644 on Coinbase, and slipped as much as 10% below the average cost basis of US spot Bitcoin ETFs, estimated at around $84,000. At one point, the crypto asset also briefly traded below Strategy’s reported average cost basis of $76,037 and came close to its one-year low of $74,420, set during the April 2025 “Tariff Tantrum.”

Thorn stated that 46% of Bitcoin’s circulating supply is now underwater, which means that those coins last moved on-chain at higher prices, and that Bitcoin’s January close marked four consecutive red monthly candles for the first time since 2018. According to the note, with the exception of 2017, the asset has not previously experienced a roughly 40% drawdown from an all-time high without extending to a decline of 50% or more within three months. This would imply that prices are closer to $63,000 based on the current cycle.

The Galaxy researcher also flagged a significant gap in on-chain ownership between roughly $82,000 and $70,000, which indicates limited demand in that range and increases the likelihood of a further test lower.

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Its analysis places Bitcoin’s realized price near $56,000 and the 200-week moving average around $58,000, levels that rise gradually as long as spot prices remain above them.

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The note said there is little evidence of significant accumulation by whales or long-term holders, though long-term holder profit-taking has begun to ease. Thorn outlined that potential catalysts remain difficult to identify, while narratives have also worked against Bitcoin as it has failed to trade in line with precious metals like gold and silver during a period of increased macro and geopolitical uncertainty.

While the passage of US crypto market structure legislation, known as the CLARITY Act, could act as an external catalyst, Galaxy said the odds of passage have diminished in recent weeks and that any positive impact may benefit altcoins more than Bitcoin.

These factors combined raise the chance that Bitcoin drifts toward the lower end of the $70,000 range and potentially tests the realized price and 200-week moving average in the high-$50,000 area over the coming weeks or months. Interestingly, these levels have historically represented cycle bottoms and strong long-term entry points.

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BTC Bottom May Be Deeper

Crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently lowered his expectations for BTC’s cycle bottom after the price decline. He said the sell-off and loss of important technical support levels have changed the market outlook.

As a result, he revised his projected bottom to a lower range between $54,000 and $44,000, down from his earlier estimate of $50,000 to $60,000.

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BNB price reclaims 4th spot from XRP

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BNB price reclaims 4th spot from XRP

The BNB price reclaimed fourth place in the global crypto market cap rankings from XRP on Tuesday as seven straight months of XRP losses combined with BNB’s completed 34th quarterly burn and a broad Tuesday market rally pushed Binance’s native token back ahead in a race that has changed hands multiple times since March.

Summary

  • BNB is trading around $613, down approximately 55 percent from its October 2025 high of $1,370, but the completed 34th quarterly burn removed 1.72 million BNB worth approximately $1.28 billion from circulation, reinforcing the deflationary mechanics that have historically supported price recovery.
  • XRP’s seven-month decline following its July 2025 peak at $3.65 and the Iran-war-driven macro environment that has kept risk assets under pressure gave BNB the sustained momentum gap it needed to retake fourth place after XRP had briefly held it following the March 17 SEC and CFTC commodity classification.
  • InvestingHaven projects BNB could trade between $590 and $900 throughout 2026 with potential peaks above $1,100 during strong bullish phases, while Coinpedia separately targets $1,000 by Q3 following the quarterly burn’s deflationary impact.

GlobeNewswire’s April 14 report confirmed the ranking shift, noting that BNB Chain handled 15 million daily transactions in Q1 2026 and that Kyrgyzstan has selected the network to host its national stablecoin with BNB included in a sovereign crypto reserve. The fourth-place ranking carries institutional significance beyond price: it determines which assets get tracked by index funds, which ETF products get approved first, and which assets are included in institutional compliance frameworks. BNB has held that position through multiple cycles and is now fighting to make the hold permanent.

The BNB versus XRP race has been one of the tightest and most volatile market cap battles of 2026, with the margin between the two assets rarely exceeding a few billion dollars in either direction.

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The 34th quarterly burn is the most direct mechanical support for the analyst price targets. By removing 1.72 million tokens worth $1.28 billion from the total supply, the burn reduces the denominator in BNB’s value equation at a time when demand from BNB Chain’s 15 million daily transactions, opBNB’s Layer-2 activity, and sovereign reserve adoption is stable. The $900 level that InvestingHaven identifies as the top of its 2026 range corresponds to a roughly 47 percent gain from current prices, which is achievable within the year if the macro environment turns risk-on following a resolution to the Iran war.

What BNB Chain’s 2026 Technical Roadmap Adds to the Thesis

BNB Chain’s published 2026 roadmap targets 20,000 transactions per second and sub-second finality through software optimizations and a new Rust-based client. The opBNB Fourier hard fork already cut Layer-2 block time to 250 milliseconds. These infrastructure improvements are designed to attract DeFi and AI-based projects that need fast, low-cost execution. If they deliver developer adoption at scale, the demand for BNB as the network’s gas and settlement token grows organically alongside usage.

What XRP’s Path Back to Fourth Looks Like

XRP’s commodity classification from the SEC and CFTC in March and the CLARITY Act markup expected in late April remain the two catalysts most likely to push XRP back ahead of BNB in market cap. The ranking battle ultimately tracks which asset gets more institutional capital, and that question in 2026 is almost entirely a regulatory variable that CLARITY Act passage would resolve decisively in XRP’s favor.

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Bank of Korea nominee backs CBDC-led system with limited stablecoin role

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South Korean authorities mandate unified crypto withdrawal delays to curb fraud

Shin Hyun-song, the nominee to lead the Bank of Korea, said a central bank digital currency (CBDC) and bank-issued deposit tokens should form the core of South Korea’s digital money system, with stablecoins playing a secondary role.

“I expect that central bank digital ​currencies and deposit tokens will be able to ​coexist with stablecoins in a manner that is ⁠supplementary and competitive to each other,” he said, Yonhap reported, citing the Bank of Korea.

In written remarks submitted to parliament ahead of his confirmation hearing on April 15, Shin said he supports introducing a won-based stablecoin, but stressed that trust in the currency must come first, according to Yonhap.

He framed stablecoins as useful tools for trading tokenized assets and enabling programmable payments, not as a replacement for state-backed money.

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His proposal aligns with the central bank’s existing position that stablecoin issuance should begin with regulated banks. Shin pointed to compliance demands such as anti-money laundering and customer checks as reasons to start with established lenders, which already meet these standards.

He also questioned claims that blockchain-based coins would improve foreign exchange efficiency, pointing to uncertainty around regulatory compliance and added costs.

Of cryptocurrencies more broadly, Shin said digital assets fall short of money’s core roles as a unit of account, a medium of exchange and a store of value.

The Bank of Korea has warned that privately issued tokens could pose risks to monetary policy and financial stability, and has called for strict oversight including anti-money laundering and customer verification rules.

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Shin’s remarks come as policymakers debate how far to open the market. While regulators have pushed for bank-led models, lawmakers have proposed broader frameworks that would allow non-bank issuers under new legislation.

The country’s first fully regulated stablecoin, KRW1, debuted in February through a partnership between crypto custody service provider BDACS and Woori Bank.

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Crypto.com gets into Prediction Markets through High Roller

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Crypto.com gets into Prediction Markets through High Roller

The crypto exchange’s move could signal a challenge to platforms like Kalshi through the integration of prediction markets, expected to be a $1 trillion market by 2030.

Crypto.com has signed a definitive agreement with online casino company High Roller Technologies as part of the cryptocurrency exchange’s move into prediction markets in a challenge to companies like Kalshi and Polymarket.

In a Tuesday notice, High Roller said the deal with Crypto.com would allow the crypto exchange to launch “an event-based prediction markets offering” to US-based users. The notice emphasized that the event contracts would be offered via CDNA, a Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC)-registered exchange, at a time when US state gaming authorities are cracking down on prediction markets.

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“We believe this partnership gives us a strong starting position in a market with meaningful long-term potential, and we’re confident in our ability to deliver,” said High Roller CEO Seth Young.

Source: Crypto.com

Crypto.com’s move into prediction markets is the latest example of a crypto exchange attempting to enter what could become a $1 trillion market by 2030. Binance integrated similar features on its wallet app last week through an arrangement with Predict.fun, a prediction market platform on the BNB Chain.

Related: Polymarket bets removed from Google News after brief appearance: Report

High Roller’s (ROLR) stock price on the NYSE American more than doubled following the announcement, to $10.77 from $5.20. 

While the CFTC and prediction markets like Kalshi have claimed in court that federal commodities laws preempt state gaming laws, the companies continue to face legal challenges in multiple jurisdictions. Cointelegraph sought a comment from High Roller but did not receive an immediate response.

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Bernstein analysts expect prediction markets to move away from sports bets

According to a Tuesday report from analysts at wealth management company Bernstein, while event contracts on prediction markets centered around sports are the entry point for many of the platform’s users, they are “not the endgame.” The analysts expect the share of sports-based event contracts on the prediction platforms to fall from about 62% to 31% by 2030 as other markets take over.

“We expect the institutional market to develop around economics, business and political contracts, as investors seek more direct and discrete exposure to events,” said the Bernstein analysts. “We also expect hedging demand from corporates and insurance firms exposed to specific event risks.”

Magazine: Should users be allowed to bet on war and death in prediction markets?

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