Cardano price has rebounded alongside the broader crypto market, rising about 5% in the past 24 hours. The move has helped the token recover nearly 10% from its March 4 low, offering short-term relief after weeks of weakness. However, the rebound does not fully resolve the structural risks surrounding the asset.

A weakening technical structure, rising on-chain coin movement, and an imbalance in derivatives positioning all point to the same possibility: the current rebound may still face downside pressure. Understanding that risk begins with the chart structure itself.

Hidden Bearish Divergence Emerges as Coin Movement Surges

Cardano’s price structure on the 12-hour chart is currently forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, a formation commonly associated with potential trend reversals. The pattern began developing in early February, with the left shoulder, head, and right shoulder now clearly visible. The neckline support of this structure sits near $0.26.

On March 4, Cardano briefly attempted to break below this neckline. The broader crypto market rally, however, pushed the price higher, allowing ADA to rebound roughly 10% from its recent low. Yet the technical picture still carries risk.

Between March 2 and March 4, Cardano formed two lower highs, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) printed a higher high during the same period.

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The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the strength of price movements by comparing recent gains and losses. When price makes lower highs while RSI makes higher highs during a downtrend, it forms hidden bearish divergence. This pattern typically signals trend continuation, suggesting sellers remain active despite temporary rallies.

On-chain data reinforces this concern. The Spent Coins Age Band, a metric that tracks how many previously held coins move across the network, shows a sudden surge in distribution-linked activity.

On March 3, approximately 93 million ADA moved on-chain. By March 5, that figure had climbed over 143 million ADA, marking a 54% increase in coin movement.

Although the metric has since dropped to almost 81 million ADA, the spike suggests that many holders moved coins during the recent rebound, potentially preparing to sell. This rising distribution pressure leads to the next key risk area: leveraged traders.

Rising Long Leverage Adds Liquidation Risk as Spot Demand Weakens

While on-chain activity hints at potential ADA selling, derivatives markets reveal a second vulnerability.

According to the Binance ADA/USDT liquidation map, leveraged traders currently hold significantly more long exposure than short exposure.

30-Day Data shows:

• Long liquidation leverage: about $22 million
• Short liquidation leverage: roughly $17 million

This means long positions outweigh short positions by around 26%. While the long bias is not heavy, it still invokes caution.

When the market holds a long exposure amid a bearish technical structure, downside volatility can increase. If prices begin to fall, these long positions may be forced to close, triggering liquidations that accelerate the decline. Normally, strong spot market demand helps absorb this type of pressure.

However, whale activity suggests that such support is currently limited.

Wallet data shows that most major holder cohorts have not significantly increased their balances in recent days.

Addresses holding:

• 100 million to 1 billion ADA
• More than 1 billion ADA

have largely kept their balances unchanged.

Only the 10 million to 100 million ADA cohort has shown modest accumulation, increasing holdings from 16.67 billion ADA to 16.69 billion ADA. Slightly above $5 million in worth.

This increase is relatively small and does not signal strong new buying demand. With whales largely inactive and coin movement rising, the market may lack the spot demand needed to stabilize the price if selling pressure increases. This dynamic makes Cardano’s key price levels particularly important.

Cardano Price Faces Critical Test Between $0.28 and $0.25

Cardano is currently trading near $0.27, placing it close to the neckline support of the head-and-shoulders structure. Several levels now determine the next directional move.

The first resistance sits near $0.28. This level has repeatedly rejected price attempts since late February. A 12-hour candle close above $0.28 would signal that buyers are regaining control.

If momentum strengthens further, the next resistance lies near $0.29, where the right shoulder of the pattern formed. A stronger breakout above $0.31 would invalidate the bearish structure entirely. Crossing this level would push the price above the head of the pattern and could signal a broader trend reversal.

However, downside risk remains if support fails. A drop below $0.25 would confirm a breakdown of the head-and-shoulders pattern. In that scenario, Cardano could fall toward $0.21, representing a potential 18% decline from the neckline.

For now, Cardano’s 10% rebound has delayed the breakdown, but the combination of hidden bearish divergence, rising coin movement, and heavy long leverage suggests the market may still face a critical test in the days ahead. Only a 12-hour candle close above $0.28 can negate the threats for now.

The latest cryptocurrency rally could still have significant momentum, according to analyst Owen Lau, who said the market’s recent surge is supported by improving policy developments and stronger institutional participation.

Bitcoin surge may extend as policy tailwinds grow: Owen Lau

Owen Lau, a financial technology and crypto analyst, said the current rally “has legs,” pointing to a combination of regulatory progress in the United States and growing integration between traditional finance and digital assets.

Bitcoin and the broader crypto market have staged a strong rebound in recent days, with the leading cryptocurrency climbing above the $73,000 level and driving gains across altcoins. The rally follows renewed inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds and a wave of short liquidations that helped accelerate price momentum.

According to Lau, a key factor supporting the rally is the shifting policy landscape in Washington. Recent discussions around crypto market structure legislation and stablecoin regulation have raised expectations that the United States could soon provide clearer rules for the industry.

Improved regulatory clarity has long been viewed as a catalyst for institutional adoption, as major financial firms often require clearer compliance frameworks before expanding exposure to digital assets.

Owen Lau also highlighted the growing involvement of traditional financial institutions in the crypto ecosystem, ranging from asset managers offering spot Bitcoin ETFs to banks exploring digital asset services. These developments, he said, are gradually embedding cryptocurrencies into mainstream financial markets.

Institutional demand has already been visible through sustained ETF inflows, which have become one of the most significant drivers of Bitcoin price movements over the past year.

While volatility remains a defining feature of the crypto market, Lau suggested that the combination of regulatory progress, institutional demand and expanding market infrastructure could support continued upside.

If these trends persist, analysts say the current rally could represent more than just a short-term rebound, potentially marking the early stages of a broader market recovery.

• Ethereum rally above $2,100 follows a sharp spike in open interest.
• A break above the resistance at $2,175 could open the path toward $2,500.
• Large ETH withdrawals from exchanges point to tightening supply.

Ethereum has climbed above the $2,100 after a strong daily rally that pushed the asset higher amid renewed interest in derivatives markets.

The move follows a period of consolidation that had kept the price trapped near the $2,000 level for several sessions.

The surge has now placed the $2,500 region firmly on the radar of short-term traders.

At the same time, comments from Vitalik Buterin about the future direction of the network have sparked fresh discussion across the ecosystem.

Open interest spike signals renewed trader activity

One of the strongest signals behind the recent price jump is the sharp rise in derivatives market activity.

Open interest (OI) in Ethereum futures has climbed significantly in recent weeks as traders increase their exposure to the asset.

The open interest reflects the total number of active futures contracts and often rises when new money enters the market.

The latest spike indicates that traders are positioning for larger price swings in the coming sessions.

Besides the increase in open interest, short liquidations also played a key role in the rally that pushed Ethereum above $2,100.

When bearish traders are forced to close positions, they must buy back the asset, which can quickly accelerate upward momentum.

This chain reaction tends to create sudden bursts of volatility that drive prices higher within a short time frame.

However, derivatives data still shows mixed sentiment among traders, with funding rates shifting between positive and negative levels, suggesting that the market remains divided on the next direction.

Ethereum supply tightens as investors withdraw coins

Another factor supporting the recent recovery is a notable decline in the amount of Ethereum held on centralised exchanges.

According to data obtained from CryptoQuant, Large amounts of ETH have been moved away from trading platforms over the past month.

These withdrawals from crypto exchanges often indicate that investors intend to hold their assets for a longer period rather than sell them immediately.

When coins leave exchanges, the amount available for instant trading becomes smaller.

This shift can create tighter supply conditions, especially if demand begins to increase at the same time.

On-chain data also shows that large investors have continued to accumulate Ethereum during recent market weakness.

This trend suggests that some market participants view current prices as attractive entry levels.

Such accumulation can help stabilise the market during periods of volatility.

Ethereum technical analysis place $2,500 in focus

From a technical perspective, Ethereum’s price is currently trading between key support and resistance zones.

The $2,023 region has emerged as an important short-term support level based on recent price movements.

A break below that zone could expose the market to further downside toward the $1,901 support area.

On the upside, the $2,175 level has repeatedly acted as immediate resistance.

A sustained move above this barrier could open the door for a rally toward the next resistance near $2,396.

If buying pressure remains strong, the market may then shift its focus toward the $2,525 region.

This level sits close to the psychological $2,500 mark that many traders are watching.

A decisive breakout above this area would signal a stronger bullish trend forming in the short term.

Vitalik Buterin says, “Ethereum needs to scale”

Beyond the price charts, discussion around Ethereum’s long-term direction has intensified following recent comments from Vitalik Buterin.

The Ethereum co-founder has emphasised the importance of developing what he described as “sanctuary” technology within the ecosystem.

This concept centres on strengthening decentralisation and ensuring that Ethereum remains a secure and neutral platform.

Buterin also highlighted concerns that some scaling solutions are drifting away from Ethereum’s core security model.

His remarks have sparked debate about how the network should evolve as demand continues to grow.

Some observers believe these discussions could influence how developers approach future upgrades and scaling strategies.

Threat researchers at Google say they have uncovered a new exploit kit targeting Apple iPhone users, aimed at stealing crypto wallet seed phrases. 

The kit, named “Coruna” by its developers, targets iPhones running iOS versions 13.0 up to 17.2.1. It has “five full iOS exploit chains and a total of 23 exploits,” including ones that were previously unknown to the public, the Google Threat Intelligence Group (GTIG) said in a report on Wednesday.

The group said it first discovered the kit in February 2025 and has since tracked its use by a suspected Russian espionage group against Ukrainians, and later on fake Chinese crypto websites that aim to steal crypto.

GTIG said the kit doesn’t work with the latest version of iOS and urged iPhone users to update their devices to the latest software version. If that isn’t possible, users should put the phone in “Lockdown Mode,” which Apple says can counter sophisticated attacks.

Kit targets crypto via fake websites

GTIG said it came across parts of an iOS exploit in February 2025 in which a customer of a surveillance company used JavaScript to fingerprint the device to deliver the appropriate exploit.

Later that year, it found the same JavaScript framework hidden on multiple compromised Ukrainian websites that was “only delivered to selected iPhone users from a specific geolocation.”

GTIG said it then found the same framework in December “on a very large set of fake Chinese websites mostly related to finance,” including one that spoofed the crypto exchange WEEX.

When a user accesses the websites with an iOS device, the framework delivers the exploit kit and hunts for financial information, including analyzing texts containing seed phrases and keywords such as “backup phrase” or “bank account.”

Related: ‘ClickFix’ hackers pose as VCs, hijack QuickLens in latest crypto attacks

The kit also seeks out popular crypto apps, including Uniswap and MetaMask, to extract crypto or sensitive information.

Coruna’s US intelligence origins debated

GTIG did not name the customer of the surveillance company from which the exploit kit is said to have originated, but the mobile security company iVerify told WIRED it could have been built or bought by the US government.