TLDR:

• UAE attacks forced JPMorgan and Citigroup to instruct staff to work from home as Iran launched strikes on Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
• Dymon Asia Capital held emergency calls, drafted staff safety guidelines, and booked hotels for stranded employees in Dubai.
• Security firm Crownox evacuated high-net-worth individuals and CEOs from the UAE into Oman by land amid flight cancellations.
• Dubai property prices rose 70% in four years, but prolonged instability could now challenge the UAE’s financial hub reputation.

Hedge funds and global banks in the United Arab Emirates shifted into contingency mode after Iran launched missile and drone strikes on the country.

Firms including JPMorgan Chase and Citigroup instructed staff to work from home or shelter in place. The attacks targeted Dubai and Abu Dhabi, disrupting aviation and daily life.

The strikes followed US and Israeli operations that killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, raising fears of wider regional conflict.

Financial Firms Review Safety Protocols

Hedge funds operating in the UAE quickly reviewed business-continuity arrangements after missiles flew over major cities.

Air defense systems intercepted projectiles over Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with debris landing near commercial areas. Smoke was visible close to Palm Jumeirah and Etihad Towers, where diplomatic offices are located.

Citigroup said it was taking steps to keep employees and families safe while serving clients. JPMorgan confirmed staff would work from home for 48 hours as it assessed conditions. BlackRock said its immediate focus was on ensuring staff and clients had the support they needed.

Singapore-based Dymon Asia Capital held an emergency call with senior executives to plan for a possible escalation.

The firm has 17 employees at Dubai International Financial Centre and others stranded as flights were grounded. Deputy CEO Kenneth Kan noted the firm had faced COVID and the Hong Kong riots before, but said, “In terms of wartime related safety issues, this is a first.”

Dubai’s Hedge Fund Hub Status Under Pressure

Dubai has grown rapidly as a hedge fund destination, with the DIFC now hosting over 100 firms. Millennium Management, ExodusPoint, and Citadel have all built or planned a presence there. Abu Dhabi attracted names like Hudson Bay Capital, Marshall Wace, and Arini in recent years.

Some executives began exploring evacuation routes through Muscat, Oman, which initially avoided strikes. Security firm Crownox CEO Hussein Nasser-Eddin said his team moved high-net-worth individuals and CEOs across the border into Oman. He added, “Most requests we are getting are from the UAE to Oman and also from Qatar to Saudi, over land.”

Kish Desai of Tourmaline Partners, who relocated from London to Dubai last year, said, “The UAE is doing an incredible job in terms of defending itself and its residents.”

He added that most people continued to feel safe and described the situation as a short-term event. He said, “We all hope the situation will resolve itself quickly and is just a short-term blip.”

Property Values and Long-Term Stability Come Into Question

Dubai property prices have risen around 70% over four years amid heavy capital inflows. Abu Dhabi also deployed sovereign wealth aggressively in global dealmaking to compete with leading financial centers. That growth story now faces its first serious stress test since the post-pandemic rally.

Hasnain Malik of Tellimer said the scale of escalation raised regional risks for asset prices. He noted Dubai valuations had become elevated after a prolonged rally, making them more exposed to disruption.

However, some executives pointed to the UAE’s track record of recovering quickly from past crises.

Viswanathan Shankar, founder of Gateway Partners, said, “I don’t anticipate UAE’s standing as a rising financial center to be impacted.”

He added, “Historically, UAE has been brilliant at converting every crisis into an opportunity. I expect the same will happen.” The key variable, according to multiple executives, remains how long the attacks continue.

Polymarket recorded a single-day notional trading volume of $478 million, with the politics category alone accounting for $220 million, nearly half of total daily activity.

Elsewhere, rival prediction market Kalshi was on the receiving end of user backlash after a controversial contract over the Khamenei market.

Polymarket Sets Historic Record as Geopolitical Tensions Drive Crypto Betting

Prediction markets surged to historic highs as the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes on Iran.

Polymarket reached an all-time high across the platform and its political markets. According to data aggregated by Defioasis, Polymarket’s spike coincided directly with the strikes.

It signals the platform’s capacity to price geopolitical events faster than TradFi markets or polling models.

Certain strike-timing contracts set their own records, with individual trades clearing up to $90 million, reflecting the massive liquidity flowing into the platform.

However, the traction was also marred by allegations of insider trading, with Bubblemaps identifying at least six addresses that profited approximately $1.2 million from bets tied to the Iran conflict.

The surge in activity shows how prediction markets are increasingly blurring the line between financial speculation and geopolitical forecasting, drawing attention from traders, lawmakers, and regulators.

The timely pricing of real-world events demonstrates the efficiency of blockchain-based markets. However, it also raises concerns about transparency and fairness, particularly when wallets appear to perfectly anticipate outcomes.

Kalshi Faces Backlash Over Khamenei Market, CEO Defends Settlement and Ethics

Meanwhile, Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market, faced its own controversy with the contract titled “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?”

The market, which had accumulated over $50 million in total volume, saw roughly $20 million traded on strike day alone.

Following Khamenei’s reported death during the strikes, critics argued the platform had effectively created a proxy death market, despite its stated rules against profiting from death outcomes.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour addressed the backlash on X (Twitter), emphasizing that all positions would be settled at pre-death last-traded prices. Meanwhile, post-death positions would be fully reimbursed, including all trading fees.

Mansour defended the market’s design as consistent with U.S. regulations. He noted that leadership changes in Iran carry significant geopolitical, economic, and national security implications. This, he said, makes such markets relevant without directly incentivizing death.

“A market on Ali Khamenei’s out as Supreme Leader was important because leadership changes in Iran have a major impact on the world order,” Mansour wrote, outlining that traders could still profit or lose based on legitimate political outcomes rather than mortality.

The settlement process, he explained, adhered strictly to the CFTC-filed contract terms, which referenced the last-traded price prior to Khamenei’s death, even amid ambiguities in reporting timelines.

On the one hand, Polymarket is setting new benchmarks for trading volume amid geopolitical tension. Meanwhile, Kalshi is facing ethical scrutiny.

Both events highlight the potential and the risks of prediction markets. These platforms offer unprecedented speed and transparency in pricing world events.

However, as February 28 demonstrated, they also amplify ethical dilemmas and regulatory attention during crypto-driven speculation.

TLDR:

• Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei warns financial interests are overriding national security in U.S. chip policy.
  
• The Trump administration approved Nvidia H200 chip sales to China, drawing sharp criticism from Amodei at Davos.
  
• Chinese labs are accused of using AI distillation attacks to steal and replicate American AI models at scale.
  
• Chip smuggling networks worth hundreds of millions prove export restrictions are working, Amodei argues strongly.

Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, has publicly raised alarms over U.S. AI chip exports to China. He argues that financial interests are overriding national security concerns in Washington.

Speaking at Davos and in other forums, Amodei called out both Big Tech and the government for allowing chip sales to continue.

His warnings come as Chinese labs reportedly intensify efforts to acquire and replicate American AI technology.

Money Is Driving U.S. Chip Policy, Amodei Says

Amodei has been a vocal supporter of stricter export controls on advanced AI chips. He believes Congress broadly agrees with tighter restrictions, yet action has stalled. His explanation is straightforward: the financial stakes are too high for those opposing the controls.

The Trump administration recently approved the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China. These chips are among the most powerful processors used in modern AI development.

The U.S. collects a 25% cut from such sales, which critics say is short-term thinking.

Amodei drew a sharp analogy to make his point. In a post shared by @_Investinq on X, he was quoted asking: “Are we going to sell nuclear weapons to North Korea because that produces some profit for Boeing?” That comparison reflects how seriously he views the chip export issue.

Nvidia has argued that restricting sales is ineffective because China will eventually build its own chips. Amodei challenged that position directly.

He pointed out that China is still spending billions on smuggling networks to acquire American chips, which shows the embargo does work.

China’s Efforts to Acquire AI Technology Go Beyond Chip Purchases

China’s AI labs have not limited themselves to buying chips through official or smuggled channels. Anthropic recently accused Chinese labs of running large-scale model extraction attacks on American AI systems. OpenAI raised the same concern just weeks earlier.

The technique used is called distillation, where a model is trained by repeatedly querying a more advanced system.

This allows bad actors to replicate AI capabilities without building them from scratch. It represents a serious and growing threat to American AI leadership.

Chip smuggling operations have also been well-documented. Authorities have uncovered processors hidden in prosthetic baby bumps and GPUs packed alongside live lobsters. These operations are reportedly worth hundreds of millions of dollars.

There is now an open divide inside Silicon Valley over chip policy. Nvidia, led by Jensen Huang, is lobbying for continued open sales and has direct access to the White House.

On the other side, Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, and Amazon are all pushing for tighter controls. Amodei has framed the debate simply: whoever controls the chips controls the future of artificial intelligence.

Circle generated $2.7 billion in FY25 revenue, posting 64% growth, as USDC adoption expanded globally.

Stablecoin issuer Circle reported sharp growth in USDC circulation and transaction activity in the fourth quarter of 2025, as revenue and operating profitability surged year-over-year.

USDC in circulation reached $75.3 billion at year-end, which is a 72% rise from a year earlier, while on-chain transaction volume climbed 247% to $11.9 trillion in Q4 alone.

Circle Revenue Climbs

The company posted $770 million in total revenue and reserve income for the quarter ending December 31, 2025, a 77% increase compared to Q4 2024. Net income from continuing operations rose to $133 million, up $129 million year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA jumped 412% to $167 million.

For the full fiscal year 2025, Circle recorded revenue and reserve income of $2.7 billion, which is a surge of 64% from 2024. However, the company reported a net loss of $70 million for the year, compared to net income of $157 million in FY24. The loss was primarily driven by $424 million in stock-based compensation tied to vesting conditions triggered by the company’s initial public offering.

Commenting on the financial results, Circle co-founder and CEO, Jeremy Allaire, said,

“USDC adoption continued to expand globally as more enterprises, developers, and public institutions integrated digital dollars into real-world payments, treasury, and onchain financial workflows. We saw strong engagement across our platform, meaningful progress toward launching Arc mainnet, continued growth in CPN TPV, and growing momentum for EURC and USYC.”

Beyond Financial Performance

Regarding its infrastructure and payments initiatives, Circle’s Arc public testnet launched with more than 100 participants across the banking, capital markets, digital assets, payments, and technology sectors.

As of February 20, 2026, the testnet recorded nearly 100% uptime, half-second transaction finality, and a trailing 30-day daily average of 2.3 million transactions. Meanwhile, total transactions have surpassed 166 million since launch. The company said Arc remains on track for a mainnet launch this year.

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Additionally, Circle’s Payments Network expanded to 55 enrolled financial institutions, with 74 under eligibility review, and reported $5.7 billion in annualized transaction volume based on trailing 30-day activity. The company also cited partnerships with Visa, Intuit, the Government of Bermuda, and Polymarket, and confirmed conditional approval from the US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to establish a national trust bank.

TLDR:

• PENDLE has corrected 86% from its 2024 high of $7.53, with price now compressing near a key weekly demand zone.
  
• Analyst CryptoPatel projects targets of $3, $5, $15, and $30, citing a potential 5,330% move from accumulation range.
  
• The sPENDLE upgrade redirects 80% of protocol revenue to buybacks, creating roughly $32 million in annual buying pressure.
  
• New products Boros and Citadels target funding rate derivatives and a $4.5 trillion Islamic finance market in 2026.

PENDLE, currently trading around $1.27, has drawn attention from crypto analysts after an 86% correction from its 2024 cycle high near $7.53.

The token operates as DeFi’s only yield tokenization protocol, splitting yield-bearing assets into Principal Tokens and Yield Tokens.

With a market cap of roughly $214 million against $3.44 billion in total value locked, some traders see an asymmetric setup forming on higher timeframe charts.

Technical Structure Points to Accumulation Phase

Price action on the weekly chart shows PENDLE compressing inside a multi-year descending channel since its 2024 peak.

The 0.786 Fibonacci retracement sits near $0.844, aligning with what analysts describe as a high-probability accumulation zone.

Sell-side liquidity sweeps into this area have been absorbed, suggesting reduced selling pressure at current levels.

Crypto analyst CryptoPatel noted the setup on social media, pointing to a demand block between $0.84 and $0.60 as a key zone.

The analyst stated targets at $3, $5, $15, and $30, projecting a potential 1,684% to 5,330% move from the lower accumulation range.

The bullish structure holds as long as PENDLE stays above $0.60 on the weekly timeframe, with invalidation below $0.46.

Volatility contraction on the weekly chart is another factor analysts are watching. Historically, extended compression periods in crypto assets have preceded sharp directional moves.

A fractal comparison to a prior cycle shows PENDLE previously rallied 1,521% from a similar structure, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

Institutional activity adds context to the setup. Arthur Hayes reportedly accumulated $973,000 worth of PENDLE, while Binance Labs and Spartan Group are listed as investors in the project.

Fundamentals and New Products Support Long-Term Case

PENDLE generates over $40 million in annual revenue from real trading activity, giving it a price-to-earnings ratio below 20x at current prices.

The protocol’s MC/TVL ratio stands at 0.06x, which analysts consider low relative to comparable DeFi infrastructure projects.

An 80% revenue buyback mechanism through sPENDLE creates roughly $32 million in annual buying pressure at current revenue levels.

The protocol is live on more than eight chains, with planned integration across Solana, TON, and Hyperliquid. Its new product, Boros, targets the funding rate derivatives market, which sees over $150 billion in daily volume.

Early testing of Boros recorded $5.5 billion in notional volume and $730,000 in early revenue.

Another product, Citadels, targets institutional and Shariah-compliant users, opening access to a $4.5 trillion Islamic finance market.

As tokenized bonds and real-world asset treasuries expand on-chain, PENDLE’s yield trading infrastructure positions it within that growing sector.

The protocol also cut emissions by 30% alongside the sPENDLE upgrade, reducing token supply pressure going forward.

Bitcoin (BTC) is relatively undervalued compared to gold and the global money supply, which could signal a price reversal, according to Samson Mow, the CEO of Bitcoin technology company Jan3.

“Bitcoin is about 24%-66% below its trend relative to gold’s market cap or global money supply, while gold is overextended,” Mow said in a Saturday post on X.

Gold futures for April delivery closed Friday at $5,247.90; Tokenized gold PAX Gold USD was trading at the time of writing at $5,404.14.

Mow also cited Bitcoin’s Z-score, a metric that tracks how close the price of BTC is to its historic average. A Z-score of 0 indicates that the price is in line with the average, while a Z-score above 0 indicates that the price is moving above average levels.

A score below 0 signals that the price is trading below the average. When the Z score of the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio drops below -2, Bitcoin has experienced “major” price rallies, Mow said. The Z score of the BTC-to-gold ratio is about -1.24 at the time of writing.

Data from TradingView shows that the metric dropped below -3 in November 2022, amid the collapse of crypto exchange FTX and the price of BTC rallied by over 150% over the next 12 months.

Earlier, a similar pattern played out during the Covid crash in March 2020, when the metric fell below -2 and Bitcoin reached a low of about $3,717. Bitcoin surged by over 300% in the following 12 months, and by November 2021, BTC reached what was then the all-time high of about $69,000. 

Related: Bitcoin traders eye Iran reactions as oil sparks US 5% inflation forecast

Bitcoin to crash to $50,000?

The analysis from Mow is a contrarian view to other analysts, who forecast more pain ahead for the crypto market and a further drop in Bitcoin prices due to investor uncertainty and geopolitical tensions. 

The price of BTC may be headed toward $50,000, according to crypto market analysts, who say that price action may be mirroring the 2022 bear market.

Bitcoin fell by over 50% from peak to trough, to a low of $60,000, before staging a limited recovery to current levels of near $66,400 in the wake of this weekend’s developments in the Middle East.

Magazine: Bitcoin to see ‘one more big thrust’ to $150K, ETH pressure builds: Trade Secrets