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Bitcoin Traders see No Bear-Market Bottom Until at Least Q3

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Bitcoin Traders see No Bear-Market Bottom Until at Least Q3

Bitcoin (BTC) starts the second week of June with damage control — and new macro lows are still expected this year.

  • Traders see a relief bounce coming next for BTC price action, but the bottom, they agree, is not in.
  • US inflation data will test markets’ resolve as the US-Iran war drags on.
  • Peace-deal pledges by US President Donald Trump do little to stabilize the risk-asset picture.
  • Multiple onchain indicators give analysts hope that the worst of the sell-off is over.
  • Crypto sentiment dives to some of its lowest levels on record.

Bitcoin bear-market bottom is months away

Bitcoin saw modest relief around its latest weekly close, data from TradingView shows, but among traders, the lack of major good news is conspicuous.

“Previous weekly candle closed very bearish, and left an imbalance at 72.5K. As long as we hold the 59.1K previous weekly low, my final long target for this week is that 72.5K imbalance,” trader Lennaert Snyder wrote in one of his latest analysis posts on X.

BTC/USDT four-hour chart. Source: Lennaert Snyder/X

Trader Mark Cullen warned that even in the event of a relief bounce, the bear-market low was still to come.

“Now $BTC has swept the 60K level, which happened a bit quicker than i had originally anticipated,” he told X followers. 

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“I expect we have a bit more sideways and up for the rest of June. I am not expecting the ultimate market low until middle to late Q3.”

BTC/USD one-day chart. Source: Mark Cullen/X

With slightly different timing, crypto commentator ColinTalksCrypto had similar expectations. BTC/USD, he noted, had closed below a key long-term trend line, the 200-week simple moving average (SMA).

“Thus, we likely get a bounce for a 1-3 months and then a drop to a new low in Q4,” he argued.

ColinTalksCrypto said that Q4 “has high odds of being the cycle bottom.”

BTC/USD one-week chart with 200SMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

CPI and PPI inflation to challenge multiyear highs

May US inflation data will add fuel to market nerves this week, with markets already betting on interest-rate hikes.

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The May prints of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) are slated to reflect the ongoing influence of the US-Iran war on the economy.

Both indexes hit multiyear highs when last updated for April, and the latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool shows expectations of Federal Reserve policy changing quickly.

“The BASE case shows two rate HIKES by early 2027. There is even a rising 17% chance of 3 rate HIKES by April 2027,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter noted in analysis late last week. 

“Just months ago, markets saw up to 4 rate CUTS in 2026 alone.”

Fed target rate probabilities (screenshot). Source: CME Group

As Cointelegraph reported, US stock markets have broadly shaken off inflation risks, hitting repeated all-time highs as tech stocks drive optimism.

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That picture is also looking less stable this week as rate-hike nerves filter through. South Korea’s stock market was halted for volatility on Monday after falling 8% at the open.

Korea Composite Index one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

“Something just shifted in the world’s hottest stock market,” Nic Puckrin, founder of crypto platform Coin Bureau, commented on Sunday. 

“Koreans stocks are up 90% this year. But the options chart on the Korea ETF has flipped from bullish bets to downside protection. The is a sign that those still in the trade are no longer confident.”

Market data for iShares South Korea ETF. Source: Nic Puckrin/X

Iran war peace promises fail to tame markets

Coming in tandem with macro pressure are developments in the US-Iran war, which remains an unpredictable market volatility catalyst.

Last week, US President Donald Trump said that the conflict would “work out well,” but the assurances failed to stop new multiyear lows for BTC/USD.

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Exchanges of fire in the interim meant that the sense of uncertainty continued.

Quoted by the Financial Times and others on Sunday, Trump again sought to put a positive slant on events, saying that the latest strikes would not impact ongoing peace negotiations.

“The deal may make it on its own merit, or not, but this will not have any effect on it,” he said in a telephone interview.

Bitcoin appeared buoyed by Trump’s words, which included an assertion that Israel would have “no choice” but to accept an Iran deal.

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Oil prices gained into the new week, with WTI crude returning above $95 per barrel. 

CFDs on US WTI crude oil one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Commenting, crypto trader and analyst Michaël van de Poppe warned that the new week would start with a bump.

“I would expect to see prices drop slightly lower going into the Monday open, as the stock markets were falling off a cliff on Friday evening,” he told X followers. 

“After US open, or on Tuesday, this rotates back up and we’ll start to see a glimpse of upwards momentum on Bitcoin.”

BTC/USDT one-day chart. Source: Michaël van de Poppe/X

Indicators point to easing sell pressure

In Bitcoin circles, talk continues to focus on whether BTC has seen its bear-market bottom with the latest dip below $60,000.

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Last week, Cointelegraph reported on an analysis concluding that most prerequisites for a market rebound were already in place.

In its latest research, onchain analytics platform CryptoQuant added to the list of reasons why the worst of the rout should be over.

“Together, these indicators suggest that speculative excess has largely been removed from the system,” contributor XWIN Japan wrote in a QuickTake blog post. 

“Market sentiment has shifted from euphoria to caution, and investors are entering a period of patience and accumulation.”

The three indicators in question are the spent out profit ratio (SOPR) for long-term (LTH) and short-term (STH) investors, along with the overall BTC supply held at a loss, as well as the 200-day simple moving average (SMA).

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The latter is already on the radar for traders after BTC/USD returned to it for the first time since 2023 last week.

“The LTH-SOPR / STH-SOPR ratio has fallen significantly, indicating that long-term holders are no longer realizing the large profits seen during the previous bull market,” XWIN continued about the other components. 

“Supply in Profit has dropped to roughly 47%, meaning more than half of Bitcoin holders are now at break-even or in a loss position. This is a sharp contrast to bull market conditions, when over 90% of supply is often in profit.”

Bitcoin supply in profit (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

CryptoQuant also flagged a “demand shortage” thanks to tech stocks stealing the limelight from crypto as a whole.

Sentiment reflects “widespread despair” opportunity

Crypto market sentiment has returned to single figures, per data from the Crypto Fear & Greed Index — but a buying opportunity could be already here.

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Related: Bitcoin risks new purge with bear-market losses still $35B below 2022 total

The Index, which uses a basket of factors to determine the overall market mood, measured 8/100 on Monday — well within its “extreme fear” zone.

Such a low score was last seen at the start of April, and is one of the lowest ever recorded.

Crypto Fear & Greed Index (screenshot). Source: Alternative.me

Monitoring social media cues, research platform Santiment described the “highest level of pessimism since mid-February.” 

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“Historically, these moments of widespread despair have often appeared close to market bottoms,” it told X followers. 

“When traders begin declaring an asset class ‘dead,’ especially something largely speculative-driven like crypto, it typically signals that many sellers have already exited their positions, leaving less supply available to push prices significantly lower.”

Crypto sentiment data. Source: Santiment/X

In February, when the $60,000 zone first came back into focus, a collapse in sentiment preceded a rebound to the mid-$70,000 range.

“While sentiment alone cannot predict exact turning points, historical patterns indicate that periods when investors are most convinced that crypto is ‘finished’ have frequently provided safer-than-average opportunities for patient traders willing to take the opposite side of the crowd’s emotions,” Santiment added.

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Garden Finance disables app as Blockaid reports $450,000 exploit

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Garden Finance disables app as Blockaid reports $450,000 exploit

Garden Finance disables app as Blockaid reports $450,000 exploit

Blockaid said an attacker drained about $450,000 in USDT from Garden Finance’s HTLC contracts across Ethereum, Base, Arbitrum and BNB Smart Chain.

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Storj Files for Bankruptcy, Reviews Equity Options for Tokenholders

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Crypto Breaking News

Storj Labs, the decentralized cloud storage provider behind the STORJ token, has filed for voluntary Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the United States. The company says it will continue operating its network and providing customer services while it restructures legacy liabilities and seeks a court-approved pathway that could allow tokenholders to participate in the ownership of a post-bankruptcy entity.

In a statement released Sunday, Storj said the case was filed in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of West Virginia. Storj also stated that its parent company, Inveniam, will continue supporting the business during the restructuring process, subject to court oversight.

Key takeaways

  • Storj Labs has entered voluntary Chapter 11, with the network and customer services expected to keep running during restructuring.
  • The company is exploring a mechanism that could give STORJ tokenholders a route to equity in the reorganized business, but details remain undisclosed.
  • Storj says its core network utility is unchanged and that its liabilities largely predate its current strategy.
  • STORJ saw no immediate major price move at announcement time, trading around $0.072, according to CoinGecko.

Bankruptcy filing with continuity for the network

According to Storj’s filing announcement and accompanying community communication, the bankruptcy is primarily aimed at addressing legacy obligations that the company says are too significant to resolve through growth alone. Storj emphasized in an open letter to tokenholders that the platform’s operations were continuing normally and that the token’s utility would remain unchanged.

The company’s approach matters because decentralized infrastructure businesses rely on ongoing participation and service continuity. While Chapter 11 typically involves constraints around certain contracts and expenditures, Storj is positioning its restructuring as compatible with maintaining the storage network’s day-to-day functioning through the period of court supervision.

Tokenholders and the challenge of an equity pathway

Storj’s most notable claim is that management intends to propose a mechanism for STORJ tokenholders to participate in the equity of the reorganized company. The company, however, did not provide specifics on how eligibility would be determined—whether through a token snapshot, a lockup requirement, or other criteria. It also did not disclose what portion of equity, if any, might be reserved for tokenholders.

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Storj acknowledged that any plan must comply with bankruptcy priority rules and receive court approval. That point is central: equity participation for token holders in bankruptcy typically depends on how the token’s legal and economic status is treated in the restructuring process, and on how the reorganization plan is structured relative to creditor claims.

The situation effectively becomes a live test of whether utility-token holders can secure a meaningful ownership role in a company emerging from Chapter 11, especially when the token’s utility is positioned as separate from the company’s preexisting liabilities.

Market reaction and what investors should watch

STORJ did not show an immediate sharp reaction following the news. CoinGecko data, as cited in the announcement coverage, indicated STORJ was trading around $0.072 at the time of writing.

For investors and network participants, the more consequential variable is unlikely to be the short-term token price—rather, it is the eventual shape of the Chapter 11 plan. The missing details from Storj’s statements include the criteria for tokenholder eligibility, the form participation might take (equity allocation versus other compensation structures), and whether there will be any valuation framework tied to token holdings.

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As the process moves forward, readers should focus on court filings and confirmed reorganization terms: how Storj categorizes its liabilities, how claims are prioritized, and whether the proposed “shared ownership” pathway survives the restructuring review with creditor and court buy-in.

A broader pattern of crypto Chapter 11 filings

Storj’s bankruptcy comes amid a period in which at least two other crypto-related firms sought Chapter 11 protection. Movement Labs filed under Subchapter V on July 15 following months of turmoil connected to its MOVE token, while Bitcoin mining pool Poolin filed on July 22 as it pursued a court-supervised sale of two Texas mining sites. Separately, BitMEX announced in July that it would shut down after 11 years, choosing an orderly wind-down rather than filing for bankruptcy.

This clustering of Chapter 11 actions highlights a sector-wide reality: decentralized and blockchain-adjacent businesses still depend on traditional legal and financial structures when legacy obligations become unmanageable. For utility-token networks, that can create a difficult tension between keeping infrastructure running and negotiating outcomes that may reshape the relationship between token economics and corporate ownership.

What happens next for Storj

Storj’s next steps—especially the specifics of any tokenholder equity mechanism and the court-approved reorganization plan—will determine whether the company’s “shared ownership” vision is feasible within bankruptcy priorities. Until then, tokenholders will be watching for concrete filing details rather than assurances, and for confirmation that network continuity remains intact under court oversight.

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Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Oil Slides 7% as Iran Signals It Will Halt Attacks If US Pause Holds

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Oil Slides 7% as Iran Signals It Will Halt Attacks If US Pause Holds

Oil prices tumbled Sunday after a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran will halt its own attacks as long as the United States keeps its bombing pause in place. The move eased nearly two weeks of escalating conflict.

The price of Brent crude oil fell over 7% to touch a low of $90.9 a barrel. West Texas Intermediate crude oil also dropped as much as 7% to touch $84.

Tehran Sets Conditions for Oil

The Iranian source described Tehran’s stance as “attack for attack.” Iran will stop its operations once the US stops, and Tehran has already passed that message to Washington, according to the official’s account.

“There is more scepticism than optimism about the halt in attacks. The prevailing view is that the pause is tactical rather than genuine.”

The pause follows Washington’s decision to suspend its bombing campaign after 13 nights of US strikes. Advisers reportedly warned President Donald Trump that the military was running low on viable targets. They also raised concerns about depleting weapons stockpiles.

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The price of Brent fell as low as $90.9 after sitting above $100 less than 24 hours earlier. Image Source: Trading Economics

US Ambassador to the United Nations Mike Waltz said Trump chose the pause to give diplomacy room. Iranian officials voiced more doubt than hope that the calm will last.

Fed Watching Inflation Risk

HSBC US rates strategist Dhiraj Narula said pricier oil has revived bets that the Federal Reserve may hold rates higher for longer. He noted inflation expectations have stayed contained so far. Narula credited firm Fed messaging on price stability for that resilience, which has kept the energy rally from feeding into longer-term forecasts.

Brent held near $92 a barrel into Monday, confirming Sunday’s drop stuck rather than snapping back. Whether the halt lasts through the week will test if Tehran’s skepticism proves right, or if the pause turns into lasting de-escalation.

The post Oil Slides 7% as Iran Signals It Will Halt Attacks If US Pause Holds appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Storj Files Chapter 11, Eyes Tokenholder Equity Path

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Storj Files Chapter 11, Eyes Tokenholder Equity Path

Decentralized cloud storage provider Storj Labs has filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. The company said it plans to keep its network running while restructuring legacy liabilities and exploring an ownership pathway for STORJ tokenholders.

On Sunday, Storj said it filed the voluntary case in the US Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of West Virginia. The company said ordinary operations and customer services would continue during the process, subject to court oversight, while its parent company, Inveniam, would continue to support the business.

The restructuring could become an unusual test of whether utility-token holders can participate in the ownership of a company emerging from bankruptcy.

In an open letter to its community, Storj said its liabilities largely predate its current strategy and are too substantial to resolve through business growth alone. It said the network continues to operate normally and its token’s utility is unchanged. 

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STORJ showed no significant immediate price reaction following the announcement, trading around $0.072 at the time of writing, according to CoinGecko.

Storj explores equity pathway for tokenholders

Storj said management intends to propose a mechanism allowing tokenholders to participate in the reorganized company’s equity. 

However, Storj has not disclosed how tokenholder eligibility would be determined, whether participation would involve a token snapshot or lockup, or how much equity might be allocated. The company acknowledged that any plan must follow bankruptcy priorities and receive court approval.

Cointelegraph reached out to Storj for comment but did not receive a response before publication. 

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Storj is among the crypto industry’s longest-running decentralized infrastructure projects. Storj began in 2014 as an open-source peer-to-peer cloud storage project that sought to let users rent storage from other network participants rather than rely on centralized providers.

Related: BitMEX hit with 623 BTC lawsuit on day it announces shutdown

Storj’s bankruptcy filing comes in the same month as at least two other crypto companies sought Chapter 11 protection.

Movement Labs filed under Subchapter V on July 15 after months of turmoil linked to its MOVE token, while Bitcoin mining pool Poolin filed on July 22 as it pursued a court-supervised sale of two Texas mining sites. 

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BitMEX also announced in July that it would shut down after 11 years. Still, the derivatives exchange did not file for bankruptcy, instead opting for an orderly wind-down following a strategic review.

Magazine: CLARITY hopes fade, BitMEX shuts as lawsuit looms: Hodler’s Digest

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BitMEX Shuts Amid Lawsuit as CLARITY Case Uncertainty Grows

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Crypto Breaking News

With the August recess deadline closing in, U.S. lawmakers are still negotiating the Clarity Act—an ethics-focused proposal tied to digital asset activity that would also restrict officials from issuing or sponsoring crypto. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has signaled skepticism that there are enough votes for passage, but said a floor vote could still be pursued to “get Clarity started” and test support.

The bill is also at the center of a deeper political struggle over enforcement. Democrats want ethics rules to be enforced by state attorneys general, while the White House and Republicans have advanced an approach that hinges on the federal Attorney General—an official appointed by President Trump. The dispute, along with provisions that Democrats criticize as giving the President special leeway, is leaving the legislation in limbo even as industry and law enforcement groups begin to line up behind the latest version.

Key takeaways

  • Clarity Act momentum depends less on technical drafting and more on whether lawmakers can reconcile a major enforcement disagreement and the scope of presidential exceptions.
  • Senate Majority Leader John Thune doubts the bill has the votes for passage, but may still move toward a vote to gauge support.
  • Institutional backers—including Fidelity and Charles Schwab, and a statement of support from Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon—suggest the bill remains attractive to parts of traditional finance despite imperfections.
  • Outside politics, crypto infrastructure news continues with BitMEX announcing it will shut down operations in September after 11 years, while S&P Dow Jones and Pantera launch an institutional digital asset benchmark index that excludes Bitcoin and XRP.

Clarity Act: ethics rules collide with enforcement politics

At the heart of the Clarity Act negotiations is a proposed ethics deal that would bar U.S. officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets. However, the plan also includes exceptions Democrats say amount to a “get out of jail free” arrangement for the President. One sticking point raised in reporting is that certain rules would expire on the day President Trump is scheduled to leave office in 2029—an element that has been criticized as undermining the durability of the restrictions.

The enforcement mechanism is another major fault line. The ethics provisions would be administered by the Attorney General appointed by Trump, but Democrats have pushed for state attorneys general to enforce the rules instead. That expansion would create a broader enforcement footprint across jurisdictions—something Republicans and the White House appear unlikely to support, especially given the likelihood that the President would resist changes that empower many independent state-level prosecutors.

According to Cointelegraph, Senate Majority Leader John Thune does not believe the bill has enough votes to pass yet. Still, he indicated he may bring it to the floor to “get Clarity started” and determine where the remaining votes stand as the August recess deadline nears.

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Support from institutions and law enforcement—while trust remains strained

While political factions remain divided, signals of support from outside government have started to build. The White House described the bill as the “most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history,” while Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego characterized it with unusually blunt language, calling it neither serious nor acceptable. Negotiations are reportedly continuing in an effort to find wording that both sides can accept.

Financial institutions have also weighed in. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon acknowledged the proposal is “not perfect,” but still supported it. Cointelegraph also reported that Fidelity and Charles Schwab have backed the initiative. Taken together, these endorsements suggest the bill’s advocates see it as a workable baseline for reducing perceived conflicts—particularly for firms that want clearer conduct expectations involving digital assets.

Law enforcement signals have been another ingredient. The National Fraternal Order of Police said the latest version of the BRCA—described as protecting developers of decentralized protocols—would not impede investigations into money laundering and fraud. That point matters for the bill’s political sell: proponents want ethics restrictions to target conflicts of interest without unintentionally constraining legitimate enforcement activity.

Still, the level of distrust between parties appears to be the dominant constraint. Negotiators may be able to close gaps on implementation details, but the bill’s most consequential disagreements—presidential exceptions and who can enforce the rules—go to the core of each side’s incentives.

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What the odds say—and what to watch next

Market odds also reflect uncertainty. According to Polymarket, the odds of the Clarity Act passing this year are currently 38%. Even if a floor vote is scheduled, that number implies the bill could still face serious headwinds, particularly if negotiations fail to produce a package that enough senators can defend publicly.

Investors and market participants should watch for two developments in the near term: whether the enforcement framework shifts meaningfully toward a multi-enforcer model, and whether the presidential exception provisions remain intact or are narrowed. Those items likely determine whether additional lawmakers feel comfortable turning a political compromise into a concrete vote.

BitMEX to shut down, highlighting consolidation in derivatives trading

Elsewhere in crypto policy and markets, BitMEX—one of the early pioneers of crypto derivatives trading—announced it will shut down operations in September after 11 years. BitMEX launched in 2014 and gained notoriety for introducing 100x leverage perpetual swaps.

But in recent years, volumes fell as competition intensified, with major centralized exchanges such as Binance and fast-growing decentralized venues like Hyperliquid taking share. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said BitMEX’s share of the Bitcoin futures market has dropped to 0.08%, with about $84 million in daily trading volume.

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Ju described the closure as an industry “torch” moment—an exchange that helped shape the market now stepping aside for the next wave it inspired. Cointelegraph also reported that BitMEX’s utility token, BMEX, fell sharply after the shutdown announcement. The same day, a class action lawsuit surfaced alleging that BitMEX fraudulently engineered liquidations to seize trader collateral. BitMEX denied the accusations and said it previously defended itself successfully against similar claims.

Analysts tied the shutdown to broader structural changes. Cointelegraph reported restructuring adviser Roshan Dharia saying BitMEX’s demise reflects accelerated consolidation. A quoted passage highlighted that the top five platforms control an estimated 80% of global spot volume, squeezing mid-tier operators as structural headwinds—rather than temporary cycles—reduce margins and limit scaling pathways.

That consolidation narrative continued quickly: Cointelegraph also reported that BitMart later announced it would close in the coming months, underscoring how pressure is spreading across crypto venues rather than concentrating on a single platform.

Institutional benchmarks expand: S&P and Pantera launch a crypto index

Index providers are also moving deeper into digital assets. S&P Dow Jones Indices and Pantera Capital launched the S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index, positioned as an institutional benchmark that tracks major crypto assets but excludes Bitcoin and XRP.

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According to Cointelegraph, the index is designed to serve institutions by filtering blockchains based on minimum thresholds for protocol revenue, market capitalization, and liquidity. The index launched with 18 constituents. Ether (ETH), BNB (BNB), Solana (SOL), TRON (TRX), and Hyperliquid (HYPE) make up the five largest holdings, while Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP remain the largest non-constituents.

The effort fits a broader industry push for institutional-grade benchmarks. Cointelegraph cited related products such as the Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF, a Franklin Crypto Index ETF, and a Coinbase Store of Value Index—signaling that tradfi-style benchmarking continues to shift from concept to increasingly concrete infrastructure.

Robinhood prediction markets grow as regulators focus on event contract specificity

On the U.S. consumer-facing side, Robinhood is reportedly discussing an expansion of its prediction markets business by integrating yes-or-no event contracts supplied by Crypto.com. Cointelegraph noted that Robinhood began prediction markets in March 2025, initially facilitated by Kalshi to satisfy compliance requirements from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

At the same time, regulatory scrutiny is intensifying around how event contracts are certified. Cointelegraph reported that the CFTC issued another warning that platforms must be more specific rather than relying on broad template-style certifications covering multiple potential variations of events. The regulatory push matters because it can constrain how quickly providers scale new contract templates or broaden the range of covered scenarios.

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Cointelegraph also referenced legal commentary linking potential clarity on market structure oversight to the Clarity Act, framing the ethics legislation as possibly supportive of the CFTC’s ability to monitor prediction market growth.

Across governance, exchanges, and benchmarks, the throughline is clear: crypto is entering a phase where regulation, institutional infrastructure, and market structure pressures are reshaping outcomes. For the Clarity Act specifically, the next signals to monitor are whether negotiations produce a durable enforcement compromise and whether senators are willing to translate that compromise into votes before the August recess deadline.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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Clarity Hopes Fade, BitMEX Shuts as Lawsuit Looms: Hodler’s Digest, July 26

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Clarity Hopes Fade, BitMEX Shuts as Lawsuit Looms: Hodler’s Digest, July 26

Clarity may get a vote, but don’t get your hopes up yet

Despite wealthy memecoin entrepreneur Donald Trump agreeing to an ethics deal, the Clarity Act is floundering as the August recess deadline looms.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune doesn’t believe the Act has the votes to pass just yet, but may bring it to a vote anyway to “get Clarity started. We’ll see where the votes are.”

The ethics deal would prohibit all US officials from issuing or sponsoring digital assets, but contains some “get out of jail free” provisions for the President that the Democrats are unhappy with, including the fact the rules expire the day he is scheduled to leave office in 2029.

The ethics provisions will also be enforced by the Attorney General that Trump appointed. The Democrats instead want state Attorney Generals to enforce it — but Trump seems unlikely to agree to empower dozens of state AGs to attempt to prosecute him.

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The White House described the bill as the “most comprehensive and wide-ranging ethics provision in history,” while Democratic Senator Ruben Gallego described it as a “piece of shit” and “not a serious effort.”

Negotiations are continuing to find a deal both sides can live with, but given the lack of trust, it’s not going to be easy to find a compromise.

Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon conceded the bill is “not perfect” but has supported it anyway, along with Fidelity and Charles Schwab who represent many trillions in assets under management each.

Law enforcement organizations have also begun to signal support, with The National Fraternal Order of Police representing hundreds of thousands of members, stating the latest version of the BRCA (which protects developers of decentralized protocols) would not impede investigations into money laundering and fraud.

The odds of the bill passing this year are at 38% on Polymarket.

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BitMEX to shut down after 11 years as class action launched against it

BitMEX, one of the pioneers of cryptocurrency derivatives trading, announced it will shut down operations in September after 11 years.

BitMEX launched in 2014 and became known for introducing the 100x leverage perpetual swaps. 

In recent years volumes have tanked increased competition from major exchanges like Binance and decentralized protocols like Hyperliquid.

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju said BitMEX’s share of the Bitcoin futures market has fallen to just 0.08%, with roughly $84 million in daily trading volume.

“It was a great exchange that helped shape the industry, and now it is passing the torch to the next generation of exchanges it inspired,” Ju said.

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BitMEX’s utility token BMEX collapsed in value after the announcement. That same day, news emerged of a class action lawsuit accusing the crypto derivatives platform of fraudulently engineering customer liquidations to seize traders’ collateral. BitMEX denied the allegations and said it had successfully defended itself against similar claims in the past.

Restructuring adviser Roshan Dharia told Cointelegraph the exchange’s demise shows the industry is consolidating.

The top five platforms now control an estimated 80% of global spot volume, leaving mid-tier and regional exchanges with shrinking margins and no viable path to scale… The headwinds are structural, not cyclical.

As if to undescore the point, BitMart subsequently announced it would also close in the coming months.

S&P launches blockchain fundamentals index for digital assets

S&P Dow Jones Indices and Pantera Capital have launched a digital asset index that tracks the major crypto assets — but doesn’t include Bitcoin or XRP.

The S&P Pantera Digital Asset Index is designed to be the benchmark crypto index for institutions, but it screens out blockchains based on minimum thresholds for protocol revenue, market capitalization and liquidity.

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The index launched with 18 constituents, with Ether (ETH), BNB (BNB), Solana (SOL), TRON (TRX) and Hyperliquid (HYPE) as its five largest holdings, while Bitcoin (BTC) and XRP (XRP) are the largest non-constituents.

The latest index follows a broader industry push to develop institutional-grade benchmarks for digital assets, with similar products including the Nasdaq Crypto Index US ETF, the Franklin Crypto Index ETF and the the Coinbase Store of Value Index among others.

Robinhood to expand prediction markets as CFTC issues new warning

Robinhood is reportedly discussing plans to expand its existing prediction markets offerings with crypto exchange Crypto.com.

According the Wall Street Journal the talks involve integrating yes-or-no event contracts supplied by Crypto.com. Robinhood launched its prediction markets in March 2025, initially facilitated by Kalshi in order to comply with regulatory requirements from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

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Bernstein analysts last week raised its price target on Robinhood (HOOD) stock to $160 from $130 per share, based on the company’s outlook for prediction markets and tokenized equities.

Meanwhile the CFTC, which aims to become the primary regulator of prediction markets, issued a shot across the bow of providers last week, telling platforms they need to get a lot more specific about event contracts certifications.

The advisory addresses concerns about the practice of submitting broad, template-style certifications that combine many potential event contract variations into a single certification. 

Carl Kennedy, a partner at New York law firm Katten Muchin, also told a House Agriculture Committee hearing last week, that the CLARITY Act could help the CFTC’s efforts to oversee the “explosive growth of prediction markets.”

Balaji’s Network School turns to Kazakhstan amid Malaysia setback

Balaji Srinivasan’s Network School, a community of “digital nomads,” is eyeing a new campus in Kazakhstan after its Forest City campus had its business license in Malaysia revoked over alleged premises-use violations

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A memorandum of understanding was signed between Kazakhstan’s relevant Minister Zhaslan Madiyev and Srinivasan to establish the first Network School campus in the country, which aims to become a digital hub. 

The School was forced out of Johor in Malaysia, following a controversy in Malaysia over allowing Israeli dual citizens to attend. The Muslim majority country has no diplomatic relations with Israel. Despite an investigation finding no visa violations, the Network School was ordered to shut down on another pretext.

Dragonfly Capital managing partner Haseeb Qureshi said the drama has validated Balaji’s Network State thesis.

“The whole idea of a network state is taking a dense group of talent and capital, and collectively negotiating with states. The Malaysia drama set up Balaji to negotiate better terms with another state to copy and paste the network there.“

Winners and losers

At the end of the week, Bitcoin (BTC) is at $65,395, Ether (ETH) is at $1,958, and XRP (XRP) is at $1.11. The total market cap is at $2.24 trillion according to CoinMarketCap.

Among the biggest 100 cryptocurrencies, the top three altcoin winners of the week are Audiera (BEAT), which gained 53%, Shinba Inu (SHIB) with a 29% gain, and Venice Token (VVV), which increased 19%.

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The top three altcoin losers of the week are DeXe (DEXE), which lost 89%, Midnight (NIGHT), which fell 26%, and Pyth Network (PYTH), which dropped 10%.

Prediction of the Week

Bitcoin will get ‘lift’ from Hyperliquid, Robinhood in next crypto bull market

Bitcoin (BTC) is “finally showing signs of a bottom,” according to Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise.

Houghan predicts that TradFi integrations, particularly Hyperliquid and Robinhood, will drive the next crypto bull market, and the resulting tide should “lift” the largest cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin and Ether.

Houghan believes crypto is bringing major benefits like 24/7 trading to traditional markets, and noted that today “nearly half the volume on Hyperliquid is in conventional assets like oil, silver, and the S&P 500 [and] it’s expanding into spot commodities, prediction markets, and options,”

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Bitwise data also suggests apparent demand for BTC is showing signs of reversal. The metric measures the difference between newly-mined BTC and the supply inactive for at least one year. 

Source: Matt Hougan

Top FUD of the Week

Home invasions became most common crypto wrench attack in H1 2026: CertiK

Home invasions became the most common form of crypto wrench attacks during the first half of 2026, rising to 20 publicly reported incidents from just one a year earlier, according to blockchain security firm CertiK. 

On Thursday, CertiK said it verified 52 wrench attacks worldwide in the first half of 2026, up 33.3% from 39 incidents during the same period in 2025. Kidnappings rose to 16 from 12, while robberies declined from five incidents to one. 

CertiK said the recorded financial exposure linked to the attacks reached about $124.1 million, up from $10.5 million a year earlier.

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The increase in home invasions suggests criminals are increasingly bypassing digital safeguards by physically coercing crypto holders and their families.

Hackers steal $31.6M in 2 crypto bridge attacks within 7 hours

Hackers stole more than $31.6 million across two unrelated crypto bridge exploits spaced just hours apart, targeting bridges operated by decentralized perpetual exchange AFX and Verus Protocol. 

According to Blockaid, AFX, a decentralized perpetual exchange operating on Arbitrum, reportedly lost $24.15 million on Wednesday through a hack targeting one of its cross-chain bridges. Hours later, Blockaid said it detected an exploit targeting the Verus Ethereum Bridge that resulted in about $7.5 million in crypto being stolen. 

“Another bridge, another exploit. Bridges will always be a weak link, until security is upgraded,” onchain investigator TheCrypticWolf said in a post on X. 

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Ethereum ETFs close week in red, end 5-day inflow streak

US-listed spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) logged $70.62 million in net outflows on Friday, ending a five-day inflow streak.

Ethereum funds saw $211.25 million in net inflows over the previous five sessions from July 17, according to SoSoValue data. They still posted $103.9 million in net inflows for the week ended Friday.

Despite the outflows, Ethereum ETFs extended their weekly inflow streak to three straight and have attracted $337.74 million in net inflows so far in July.

The Bitcoin ETFs reversed gains made earlier in the week to end up with $33.9 million of inflows.

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Top Magazine Stories of the Week

Both parties say they want US crypto market structure legislation, but a dispute over ethics rules and who enforces them is becoming the bill’s biggest obstacle.

A Bitcoin development roadmap that addresses quantum computing risks could see the price surge by “double digits” very quickly, according to Charles Edwards.

Are the fears of an AI driven hacking epidemic totally overblown, or is this just the lull before the storm?

Cointelegraph publishes long-form journalism, analysis and narrative reporting produced by Cointelegraph’s in-house editorial team with subject-matter expertise. All articles are edited and reviewed by Cointelegraph editors in line with our editorial standards. Content published in here does not constitute financial, legal or investment advice. Readers should conduct their own research and consult qualified professionals where appropriate. Cointelegraph maintains full editorial independence.

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South Korea trade giant POSCO puts receivables onchain in tokenization test with LG

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Bank of Korea calls for stock-style circuit breakers on BTC exchanges

POSCO International, South Korea’s largest trading company, has begun tokenizing trade receivables on blockchain in a test that could speed up commercial payments between its global subsidiaries.

The company, which generated $22.2 billion in revenue last year from businesses spanning steel, energy and battery materials, is working with LG CNS, the technology arm of LG Group, to issue, transfer and settle receivables on layer-1 blockchain Injective , the firms told CoinDesk in a press briefing.

The pilot is using receivables generated by real trade between POSCO’s overseas operations and their counterparties rather than simulated transactions.

Trade receivables represent money owed to a company after goods have been shipped but before payment is received. Today, those claims are typically tracked separately by buyers, sellers and banks, with reconciliation often taking days before cash can be released.

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The companies said putting receivables on a shared blockchain ledger creates a single record that can be transferred and settled while carrying compliance rules with the asset itself.

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WEMIX says attacker moved about $724,000 after contract breach

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WEMIX says attacker moved about $724,000 after contract breach

WEMIX says attacker moved about $724,000 after contract breach

WEMIX suspended bridges, liquidity-pool trading and several services after an attacker compromised a WEMIX$-linked contract and moved 724,198 USDC.e.

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Fed Rate Decision Pits 104 Economists Against a 36% Hike Bet

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Bitcoin Price Performance

The Federal Reserve (Fed) decides on interest rates this Wednesday. Almost every economist expects no change. Traders are far less sure.

That gap matters. If the Fed surprises, stocks, bonds, oil and Bitcoin (BTC) all move fast. Bitcoin traded near $64,915 on Monday, up 0.7%.

Bitcoin Price Performance
Bitcoin Price Performance. Source: BeInCrypto

Economists Say Hold, Traders Say Maybe Not

The Fed’s main interest rate has sat between 3.50% and 3.75% for four meetings. The FactSet consensus says it stays there.

Reuters asked 104 economists in mid-July. All 104 said hold. Fully 78 expected no change through December.

Traders tell a different story. Fed funds futures put the chance of a rate rise at 13% a week ago. By Friday it had jumped to 38%. It now sits near 36%.

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Fed Rate Cut Probabilities
Fed Rate Cut Probabilities. Source: CME FedWatch Tool

“We are currently seeing the biggest indecision by the markets regarding the expected outcome for some time,” analyst The Martini Guy noted.

Follow us on X to get the latest news as it happens

The two camps are not really arguing. Economists name the single likeliest outcome. Futures price every outcome, including the unlikely ones.

The panel is also shifting. Most of those same economists now rate the chance of a hike later in 2026 as high. A month ago, most said low.

Why the doubt? Chair Kevin Warsh has stopped hinting at what comes next. The Fed will not publish new forecasts either. That leaves traders guessing ahead of this week’s central bank decisions.

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“Absent, also, is so-called forward guidance, which we agreed was not well suited to the current policy conjuncture,” said Warsh.

Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon calls a July hike unlikely. Even so, he puts the rest of the year at 60-40. Larry Meyer, a former Fed governor, expects a hold but sees Lorie Logan and Beth Hammack voting against it.

Oil and Tariffs Brought Inflation Back

Oil is the trigger. Brent crude closed at $100.69 on July 23, its first close above $100 since May 26. Prices are up over 30% this month.

Costlier oil means costlier fuel, and that lifts inflation. A weekend pause in Iran strikes has calmed things a little.

Tariffs came next. On Friday, the US added new import taxes of 10% and 12.5% on goods from 60 trading partners.

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These replace tariffs the Supreme Court threw out in February, using a law that is harder to challenge.

Bond markets reacted. The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.69%, its highest since January 2025. That is the rate the US government pays to borrow for a decade.

The two-year yield is the real tell. It ended the week at 4.33%, above the Fed’s own 3.75% ceiling. Bond traders are already braced for higher rates.

What It Means for Bitcoin

Bitcoin trades near $64,915. That is roughly 49% below its record of $126,080, set in October 2025.

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When safe bonds pay 4.69%, risky bets look less appealing. That has capped Bitcoin all month.

A rate rise would be the Fed’s first since July 2023, ending three years of pauses and cuts.

A calm hold could do the opposite. Bitcoin stalled near $66,000 earlier this month, when AI-driven inflation worries capped the rally.

Warsh speaks 30 minutes after the decision. With forecasters and traders this far apart, his tone will matter more than the vote. Priced-in outcomes rarely move markets. Surprises do.

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The post Fed Rate Decision Pits 104 Economists Against a 36% Hike Bet appeared first on BeInCrypto.

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Down 32% in 6 Months: What Binance Research Says About Bitcoin’s Next Move

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Bitcoin ended the first half of 2026 near $60,000 after falling about 32% since January, Binance Research reported. Its Half-Year 2026: Macro & Bitcoin report described the decline as a third consecutive quarterly loss across broader financial markets worldwide.

The weak first-half performance also extended Bitcoin’s longer-term drawdown. According to the report, the asset has fallen more than 50% from its October 2025 record high near $126,000. It has also spent 275 days below that peak, underscoring the depth and persistence of the current market downturn.

On-Chain Data Signals Market Stress

On-chain data showed 10.83 million BTC ended the period in unrealized loss, while 9.22 million units remained profitable instead. Binance Research said this marked the first loss-over-profit crossover during the current market cycle, making conditions important for analysts.

The researchers noted similar crossovers have historically appeared near major Bitcoin market bottoms before stronger recoveries eventually followed. However, they cautioned that historical patterns alone cannot confirm the current cycle will produce the same outcome.

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Beyond the on-chain signals, Binance attributed Bitcoin’s weak performance mainly to broader macroeconomic conditions rather than crypto-specific developments. The report said markets shifted from liquidity-driven expectations toward economic fundamentals as monetary policy remained restrictive throughout the first half of 2026.

Expectations for interest rates also changed as hopes for aggressive cuts faded. Futures markets instead reflected an 80% probability of another Federal Reserve rate increase before December, adding pressure across financial markets.

Macro Pressures Weigh on Bitcoin

The report also said higher real yields, a stronger U.S. dollar, and tighter liquidity continued to weigh on Bitcoin. While technology stocks rebounded on optimism around artificial intelligence, BTC lagged behind many major asset classes during the same period.

A resilient U.S. economy also reduced expectations that the Federal Reserve would cut interest rates soon. Binance Research said artificial intelligence was a key driver of first-quarter economic activity. At the same time, core PCE inflation rose to 3.4%, its highest level since late 2023, reinforcing concerns that price pressures remain stubborn.

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That backdrop also weakened demand for crypto. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $5.4 billion in net outflows during the first half of the year.

The post Down 32% in 6 Months: What Binance Research Says About Bitcoin’s Next Move appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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