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Bitcoin Treasuries Add Only 5,900 BTC in 3 Months Amid Paper Losses

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Crypto Breaking News

Corporate Bitcoin treasuries appear to be losing momentum, according to new on-chain analysis that suggests many current holders are still trading at a loss and new buying is not strong enough to offset that overhang. Glassnode data indicates listed companies acquired only a small fraction of the BTC they were purchasing during peak activity in mid-2025, while the group’s blended cost basis remains above current spot levels.

The result is a market where treasuries are less able to “support” price from the margin: if buyers have stopped accumulating and their positions are still underwater, the existing holdings function more like overhead supply than an active demand driver—at least for now.

Key takeaways

  • Glassnode reports listed corporate treasuries added about 5,900 BTC in 2026 over roughly three months—far below the scale of purchases seen in July 2025.
  • For existing corporate holders, the aggregate corporate treasury cost basis averages around $80.5K, keeping the cohort roughly 6% under water versus spot.
  • Glassnode says 2026 has featured two attempts to reclaim that cost basis, but both failed as price could not stay above the level.
  • ETF flows have turned negative again, with US spot Bitcoin ETFs recording net outflows of $462.7 million in the five trading days through Sept. 11.
  • Glassnode frames current conditions as a “market in waiting,” pointing to weakening demand signals in realized cap.

Corporate buys shrink as treasuries stay underwater

In 2026, listed companies have accumulated approximately 5,900 BTC, Glassnode said, citing its “FlowsNetCompanies” treasury flow charts. The number is presented as notably small relative to acquisition intensity during July 2025, when companies bought around 89,000 BTC even while BTC/USD was trading above $100,000.

That contrast matters because it highlights a shift in corporate behavior: rather than continuing to add at a pace that could meaningfully change the supply-demand balance, many buyers appear to be waiting for clearer price confirmation. Glassnode notes that current treasuries have not yet normalized into a profitable position.

In the latest edition of its newsletter, The Week Onchain, Glassnode stated that the “Corporate Treasury Cost Basis” for existing holdings sits at about $80.5K—roughly 6% above spot—meaning the group is collectively underwater.

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Glassnode also emphasized that 2026 has only produced two efforts to reclaim that cost basis, and both attempts were unsuccessful due to price failing to hold above the target level. The analysis argues that a buyer that has paused purchases while remaining in a paper loss is not acting as active support.

“A reclaim of $80.5K would put the treasuries back in profit and remove one layer of overhead supply; until then their entry is one more ceiling.”

Strategy’s pace slows, but it remains a dominant holder

While corporate demand is depicted as broadly muted, not every company has stopped buying entirely. Business intelligence firm Strategy—widely cited as holding one of the largest corporate Bitcoin treasuries—made its most recent purchase at the end of August, adding 4,603 BTC. The purchase is described by earlier reporting from Cointelegraph as the company’s first acquisition in two months.

Even with that incremental addition, Strategy’s broader position still reflects the same macro reality: Glassnode data cited in the report places the cost basis of Strategy’s 845,050 BTC holdings at $75,412. That figure is below the average corporate cost basis referenced for the overall treasury cohort, but the wider point remains that corporate accumulation is not currently acting as a steady, price-anchoring flow across the sector.

Why Glassnode calls it a “market in waiting”

The slowdown in corporate purchases is occurring alongside shifting macro and investor-risk conditions. Glassnode frames the current state as consistent with broader caution in the crypto market, where uncertainty about BTC’s forward strength tends to suppress incremental buying.

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This caution was echoed in US policy developments: on Wednesday, the US Federal Reserve implemented its first interest-rate hike since July 2023, according to Cointelegraph’s coverage. Rate-hike cycles typically tighten financial conditions and can weigh on liquidity-sensitive assets, which helps explain why demand for Bitcoin products can become more reactive to short-term price moves.

One way to measure that sensitivity is through spot Bitcoin ETF flows. Earlier coverage from Cointelegraph noted that US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of $462.7 million across five trading days through Sept. 11. The report also states this reversed a sequence of three consecutive weeks of net inflows, reinforcing the idea that near-term risk appetite has cooled.

Glassnode links these ETF and broader market patterns to what it calls a “market in waiting.” It further adds that Bitcoin’s realized cap—defined in crypto analytics as the cumulative price at which the supply last moved on-chain—has begun to fall as of Sept. 15. A decline in realized cap is interpreted as weaker demand at prevailing prices, suggesting fewer participants are willing to establish new cost anchors higher up the curve.

In the analysis, realized cap is cited at around $1.069 trillion. Glassnode’s interpretation is conditional: a return to positive daily realized cap changes would indicate that buyers are coming back and supporting prices. Conversely, outflows while BTC trades below the mean would suggest that “range’s buyers” are beginning to give up.

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For investors and traders, this matters because the “ceiling” described for treasuries and the “waiting” posture described via realized cap both point to the same dynamic: demand is not being expressed aggressively at current levels. When both corporate accumulation and ETF-based flows soften, the market can become more dependent on narrow pockets of buying rather than a broad, continuous bid.

“A return to positive daily Realized Cap changes would say the buyers are back; a run of outflows while price sits under the mean would mean the range’s buyers have started to give up,” Glassnode concluded.

What to watch next in corporate and on-chain demand

The key question now is whether corporate treasuries and wider market participants will resume accumulating strongly enough to change the balance between overhead supply and fresh demand. Glassnode’s framework implies that reclaiming the corporate treasury cost basis near $80.5K could reduce that overhead layer—but it also notes that previous attempts in 2026 failed to hold.

Heading into the next trading weeks, readers should watch for two confirmations: sustained ETF inflows (rather than brief reversals) and signs that realized cap is stabilizing or turning upward again. Together, those signals would better indicate whether the “market in waiting” is easing—or whether the current pause in corporate buying will continue to weigh on sentiment.

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U.S. SEC begins prepping for around-the-clock trading that crypto treats as the norm

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SEC chair Paul Atkins signals rule changes for onchain markets and AI-driven finance

“I believe that tokenization holds the potential to help the securities industry achieve a real-time inventory management, which could drive efficiency, reduce settlement failures, mitigate the risk of abusive naked short selling, with the goal of eliminating that possibility altogether,” Atkins said. “Therefore, I’ve asked the staff to consider what steps can be taken to dovetail a growth-friendly environment with protections against harmful market behavior.”

Moving the U.S. securities markets beyond their weekday, daytime tradition will involve significant adjustments, Atkins and other SEC commissioners admitted, though Commissioner Hester Peirce noted, “Crypto markets certainly don’t sleep.”

Peirce said that firms may be concerned that expanding their trading hours may contribute to wider spreads, increased volatility of prices, less time to deal with technology issues and making sure the transactions are properly monitored.

“These concerns are the real consequences of extending trading into hours when human involvement is limited,” Peirce said, adding that companies may also be worried about overnight drama such as “social media rumors tanking your stock while your corporate office slumbers.”

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But the SEC is steaming toward the expansion, and Atkins said that “several needed preparations are already underway or in place.”

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Crypto Tokenized Stocks Gain a Temporary SEC Pathway After Senate Setback

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The Senate failed to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15, with the crypto market-structure bill falling to a 50-49 vote, 10 short of the 60-vote threshold needed for cloture, according to the embedded Reuters report. Two days later, the SEC announced a temporary Innovation Exemption designed to let eligible tokenized crypto stocks trade more widely in the U.S.

The CLARITY Act sought to build a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets. Its failure effectively put the bill on ice, with Congress preparing to leave Washington ahead of the November midterm elections. The timing makes any near-term revival uncertain, as detailed in this breakdown of the stalled vote and its path back to the floor.

The SEC’s announcement followed two days later, addressing crypto versions of stocks. The decision is one that could open the door to on-chain trading of tokenized equities becoming widely available in the U.S. for the first time. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins issued a statement titled “Statement on the Innovation Exemption: A Bridge Toward Durable Rulemaking” just now.

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That distinction matters for traders parsing what actually changed. A temporary exemption issued under existing statutory authority is not the same instrument as durable legislation passed by Congress, and the SEC’s own framing acknowledges that gap rather than papering over it.

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How Does the Industry Read the SEC Crypto Decision?

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With the bill stalled, the SEC and CFTC are now positioned to fill the policy void through existing regulatory tools. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said in a social media post that the CLARITY Act’s failure to advance was a disappointment, but added that the SEC and CFTC have the tools they need to create clear rules under existing authority and that he expects work on this to begin in earnest.

Industry experts cited in that report caution that only Congress can create a lasting regulatory framework, a caveat worth holding onto given how quickly administrative rules can shift with political winds or face court challenges. The Innovation Exemption is best read as a possible interim route for tokenized stocks.

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What Happens Next?

Thom Tillis switched his vote from yes to no in a procedural move that preserves his ability to bring the CLARITY Act back for reconsideration later. With Congress set to depart for the midterm recess, the bill’s near-term prospects remain uncertain.

On the regulatory side, the SEC has characterized its exemption as a bridge toward eventual durable rulemaking rather than an endpoint. Traders should watch two threads in parallel: whether Tillis or other allies revive the legislative push after the election, and how the SEC’s temporary framework for tokenized stocks evolves as the agency gathers data from early participants.

Bitcoin (BTC)
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For now, Bitcoin remains under pressure after its recent decline, with traders watching whether BTC can reclaim the $76,000–$78,000 area and stabilize above key support. With macro “uncertainty” and shifting rate expectations still driving sentiment, BTC is likely to remain volatile until the market gets a clearer directional catalyst.

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FCA steps up crypto enforcement with raids on illegal London P2P trading sites

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FCA steps up crypto enforcement with raids on illegal London P2P trading sites

The U.K.’s Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) said Thursday that it conducted actions to crack down on three illegal peer-to-peer crypto trading locations in London in a sign the regulator is ramping up enforcement activity as the country’s legal framework for crypto comes closer to implementation.

The financial watchdog, which said the crackdown was a joint effort with HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC) and London’s Metropolitan Police, said it issued cease-and-desist letters at the three premises, requiring traders to stop participating in illegal crypto businesses. Peer-to-peer trading occurs when individuals buy and sell crypto directly with each other, an activity that needs to be legally registered in the U.K.

“There are currently no FCA-registered peer-to-peer crypto businesses operating in the U.K.,” the FCA said. “By operating outside the FCA’s registration regime, they avoid controls designed to detect and prevent money laundering,” the agency said.

The action signals that the era of “light-touch” crypto regulation in the U.K. is ending, said Caroline Black, a consultant at Gherson Solicitors LLP.

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China’s Moonshot launches Kimi AI tools for financial services

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China's Moonshot launches Kimi AI tools for financial services

BEIJING — The Chinese artificial intelligence startup behind the Kimi model said Thursday that financial industry giants, including investment banks, funds and venture capital firms are using its Kimi models on AI tools.

Among the companies now using Kimi are investment bank CICC and venture capital firms such as Sequoia China, now rebranded as Hong Shan.

It’s part of Beijing-based Moonshot’s announcement Thursday that it was launching Kimi for financial services — a sign of how AI companies are pursuing real-world, commercial applications.

Kimi users can directly access information commonly used for analysis and reports, thanks to a number of industry data partners such as S&P Global Market Intelligence, Crunchbase, Wind, local financial news leaders and business database Tianyancha, according to Moonshot.

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The startup said Kimi can also directly access the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s EDGAR system for public companies’ financial filings, the IMF, World Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve Economic Data site (FRED).

While users don’t have to download a separate interface, a test on Kimi’s mobile app indicated different kinds of data were available to different users depending on subscription tier.

Subscriptions to Kimi start at 49 yuan ($7.31) a month, and can go up to 699 yuan ($104.23).

“The real inflection point really is the combination of stronger AI capabilities with professional expertise,” Samuel Fischer, Beijing branch manager at Deutsche Bank, said in a promotional video published by Moonshot on Thursday. “AI companies that understand real financial workflows and can deliver reliability and data security will be particularly well positioned to contribute to this transformation.”

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“AI can now organize and compare this kind of information, identify inconsistencies, and support initial analysis,” he added.

It was not immediately clear whether Deutsche Bank was a client. The bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Kimi K3 model, released by Moonshot in July, competes with models from leading U.S. companies.

The Chinese startup has reportedly filed confidentially for a Hong Kong IPO. The company, however, has said it does not comment on market rumors or speculation.

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Saudi Strikes Leave Polymarket’s Houthi Entry Question Unresolved

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Houthi Polymarket odds: Traders face an unresolved threshold as Houthi missiles and drones hit Saudi Arabia

Houthi Polymarket odds have seen a surge in volume after the Houthis said on September 14, 2026, that they fired dozens of missiles and drones at King Khalid airbase in Khamis Mushait, southern Saudi Arabia.

They said the targets included aircraft hangars, radar systems, runways, and ammunition depots, describing the attack as retaliation for Saudi airstrikes in Yemen.

Saudi authorities issued emergency alerts in Khamis Mushait and three other southern cities. A Polymarket contract titled Houthis Enter Saudi Arabia sits at the center of an important distinction: cross-border missile and drone attacks are not the same as a confirmed ground incursion.

Houthi Polymarket odds: Traders face an unresolved threshold as Houthi missiles and drones hit Saudi Arabia
SOURCE: Polymarket

What Do the Latest Strikes Mean for the Tension in the Middle East?

In mid-September, cross-border attacks escalated as the Houthis launched missile and drone strikes on southern Saudi cities and infrastructure, with Saudi air defenses intercepting threats, including a drone near Mecca. Reports indicated that dozens of missiles were fired at the Khamis Mushait airbase on September 14.

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This followed a previous attack on Saudi Arabia, attributed to Iran-backed fighters in Iraq, which disabled the east-west pipeline used for Gulf oil exports. Concerns about oil supply disruptions arose, though Riyadh did not specify when pipeline operations would resume.

No evidence confirmed Houthi ground forces crossing into Saudi territory, although aerial activity and heightened security measures were noted.

Fighting in Yemen saw Yemen’s internationally recognized government forces retake positions in western Taiz after repelling a Houthi offensive, while Houthi advances remained within Yemen, particularly along the Red Sea coast and around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

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Polymarket Houthi Odds and The Contract’s Unresolved Threshold

The contract’s wording makes the distinction consequential for prediction-market participants. Entering Saudi Arabia can be read as a geographic threshold, while the reported events involve missiles and drones launched across the border. Those are materially different developments from a documented crossing by Houthi fighters on the ground.

A strike on a Saudi airbase is plainly an attack on Saudi Arabia. Whether such an attack meets a market criterion framed around entry is a separate issue that depends on the contract’s resolution rules.

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The supplied Polymarket material includes an experimental AI-generated summary that says it has no role in how the market resolves and notes that no confirmed Houthi ground incursions into Saudi territory have occurred.

What Could Change the Answer?

Independent reporting confirming that Houthi fighters crossed into Saudi territory on the ground would directly address the contract’s central threshold. By contrast, further missile, drone or cross-border attacks would continue to show an escalation in hostilities without, on their own, confirming a ground entry.

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Saudi-led coalition airstrikes in Yemen, mutual accusations of civilian casualties, Saudi security alerts and efforts to seek external support all point to an intensifying conflict. The supplied evidence also notes that diplomatic or military responses scheduled in the coming weeks could affect the trajectory.

For now, however, the evidence distinguishes the reported aerial campaign and fighting inside Yemen from the specific event of verified Houthi ground entry into Saudi territory.

For readers following the market, that leaves a definitional question alongside the battlefield developments. The headline risk from cross-border attacks and oil-route disruption is real in the supplied reporting, but the contract’s stated event requires attention to the difference between attacking Saudi Arabia and confirmed entry into it.

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Meta Stock Got A Muse AI Boost. Meta Connect 2026 Is Next Test.

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Meta Stock Got A Muse AI Boost. Meta Connect 2026 Is Next Test.

Meta Platforms (META) stock is riding a near 20% rally this month with shares boosted by optimism about its Muse AI agent app and, more recently, custom chips. The next test for Meta’s rally comes next week. Meta is hosting its annual Connect developer conference starting Wednesday. Chief Executive Mark Zuckerberg typically uses the event to preview the company’s slate…

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Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC About to Break Above $80K or Crash Below $72K?

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Bitcoin has absorbed a fresh macro shock without losing its broader post-breakout structure. The Federal Reserve raised its target rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% on Wednesday, a tightening move that also strengthened the dollar and pushed Treasury yields higher. Despite this traditionally challenging backdrop for risk assets, BTC continues to trade around $76.7K, although buyers have yet to regain clear control.

Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart

On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin remains in a corrective phase after being rejected by the major $80.5K-$82.3K resistance zone. Price has gradually moved lower from the September peak, but the decline has so far been relatively controlled, with BTC still comfortably above the key $72K-$74K support region.

This resilience is particularly notable following the Fed’s 25-basis-point rate increase. Rather than producing an immediate structural breakdown, the decision has so far left BTC consolidating above its major breakout area. Still, the Fed’s projections indicate that policymakers see inflation remaining elevated and point to a restrictive policy backdrop, meaning macro pressure has not necessarily disappeared.

Meanwhile, the daily RSI has cooled substantially from its previous overbought readings and is now sitting around the neutral 50 region. This suggests that the earlier bullish momentum has been reset rather than replaced by strongly bearish momentum.

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As long as the $72K-$74K support zone holds, the broader bullish structure remains intact. A renewed push above $80K would bring the $80.5K-$82.3K resistance area back into focus. Conversely, a drop below $72K could expose the moving averages around $68K-$70K, followed by the $66K-$67K support zone.

btc_price_chart_1709261
Source: TradingView

BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart

The 4-hour chart shows a clearer short-term downtrend. Since reaching $82.3K, Bitcoin has traded inside a descending channel, with lower highs and lower lows defining the correction.

Price recently tested the lower boundary of this structure near the $74K-$75K area before recovering toward $76.7K. The 4-hour RSI also bounced from near-oversold territory and has returned toward the neutral 50 level, suggesting that immediate selling momentum has eased.

However, BTC remains below the channel’s upper boundary, currently around $78K-$79K. A breakout above this trendline would be the first meaningful indication that the short-term correction is ending and could open another attempt at the $80.5K-$82.3K resistance zone.

On the other hand, another rejection followed by a breakdown beneath the channel would shift attention toward the $72K-$74K support zone. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $72.5K reinforces this region, while deeper levels are visible at $70.2K, $68.6K, and $66.9K.

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btc_price_chart_1709262
Source: TradingView

Sentiment Analysis

The Coinbase Premium Index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other major exchanges and can provide insight into buying or selling pressure from U.S.-based participants.

The latest reading is approximately -0.08, placing the index firmly in negative territory. This indicates that Bitcoin is trading at a discount on Coinbase, suggesting that U.S. spot demand remains relatively weak and selling pressure continues to outweigh aggressive buying on the platform.

More importantly, the index has deteriorated again after briefly moving into positive territory earlier in September. This means Bitcoin’s resilience around $76K-$77K is not currently being supported by particularly strong Coinbase demand.

Therefore, while BTC has handled the Fed’s rate hike without a major technical breakdown, the negative Coinbase Premium suggests caution. A sustained return of the index above zero, especially alongside a breakout from the descending 4-hour channel, would better confirm that spot buyers are returning and that the market may be preparing for another attempt at the $80K-$82.3K resistance region.

btc_coinbase_premium_index_chart_1709261
Source: CryptoQuant

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: Is BTC About to Break Above $80K or Crash Below $72K? appeared first on CryptoPotato.

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U.S. faces ‘speed bump, not a roadblock’ after Clarity vote that may drive development to Asia, Europe

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Hyperliquid starts DeFi lobbying group in U.S. with $29 million HYPE token backing

Tom Farley, CEO of CoinDesk owner Bullish, also said the bill’s failure is not an insurmountable hurdle.

“Durable legislation would give the digital asset industry greater certainty. But even with legislation, the real work of implementation happens at the agencies, and agencies can move faster,” he said in a post on X. SEC and CFTC rulemaking may prove more consequential in the near term for tokenized securities, including how issuers, transfer agents and issuer-sponsored tokens are treated, he said.

Nilmini Rubin, chief policy officer at Hedera, said the vote does not end the legislative effort. “We’ve seen policymakers put real time and effort into studying the underlying technology, which is a positive step in the right direction,” she said. “I think most of the industry is still as ambitious as ever that we’ll get to where we need to be.”

Still, Rubin said, U.S. competitiveness remains at risk as long as the market lacks clear rules.

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“The largest loser is U.S. competitiveness because uncertainty pushes innovation and adoption in the U.S. behind other countries,” she said. “The longer the market lacks clear rules, the more difficult it is to ensure the United States remains at the center of this system, rather than on the margins of it.”

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Ethereum’s Glamsterdam upgrade clears rehearsal for a big jump in capacity

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Glamsterdam raised its block gas limit from 60 million to 200 million about an hour after going live on the testnet. Gas measures the computing work required by transactions, so the higher ceiling creates room for more payments, token swaps and other activity in each block.

How that helps Ethereum

A 200 million limit would let Ethereum absorb more activity before users begin outbidding one another for block space, which could make fee spikes less severe when trading surges or a popular token launch clogs the network.

Larger blocks are also harder to check and could leave smaller operators unable to keep up. Glamsterdam is Ethereum’s attempt to gain that extra capacity without making the chain prohibitively expensive to run.

Specialized builders package transactions, while validators check the resulting blocks and secure the chain. Glamsterdam would place that handoff and the accompanying payments inside Ethereum’s own rules, reducing dependence on outside relay services.

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The change also extends the time available to spread block data across the network from about two seconds to nine seconds. That gives validators longer to receive and check the larger blocks Glamsterdam is designed to support.

As such, the 200 million limit remains a test setting rather than a commitment for Ethereum’s main network. Devnet-11 was also designed as a controlled rehearsal without deliberate attacks.

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State-Sponsored Hackers Fuel 420% Jump in Onchain Malware, Chainalysis

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Crypto Breaking News

State-linked hackers are increasingly using public blockchains as a durable way to “dead drop” malware instructions and infrastructure details, according to a Chainalysis report cited by Cointelegraph. The firm estimates that roughly two-thirds of new quarterly activity involving these techniques is tied to state-aligned operators, while the frequency of such “dead drop” writes has surged dramatically over the past year.

Chainalysis reports that the number of times attackers stored malware-related payload information on public chains rose 420% in the last 12 months. It also highlights cases involving North Korea- and Iran-linked groups, showing how encoded blockchain data can outlast takedowns of domains, servers, or code repositories.

Key takeaways

  • Chainalysis attributes about two-thirds of new dead drop blockchain activity per quarter to state-linked threat actors.
  • Dead drop payload writes across public blockchains increased 420% year over year, signaling faster scaling of these tactics.
  • Chainalysis linked previously unattributed activity across Tron, Aptos, and BNB Smart Chain to UNC5342, a North Korea-linked group tracked by Google Threat Intelligence.
  • Chainalysis also recorded a 440% rise in malicious blockchain writes since July 2025, coinciding with the emergence of higher-capacity open-source AI models.
  • Iran-linked actors are suspected to have used Bitcoin to publish encoded command-and-control routing data that infected devices can periodically check.

More “dead drop” payloads on-chain

Chainalysis frames the technique as a way to make malware campaigns harder to disrupt. Instead of relying on websites, domains, or code hosts that can be seized or shut down, attackers encode instructions and infrastructure pointers directly into transactions on public blockchains. The information persists because blockchain data remains accessible even if off-chain components are removed.

In practical terms, the approach improves campaign durability: malware can continue operating as long as it can retrieve updated instructions from the blockchain. Chainalysis notes that in 2025, North Korean hackers used a similar concept—called EtherHiding—to conceal crypto-stealing code inside smart contracts.

North Korea-linked routing across multiple chains

One of Chainalysis’ detailed findings connects activity that previously lacked clear attribution across Tron, Aptos, and BNB Smart Chain (BSC) to UNC5342, a North Korea-linked group tracked by Google Threat Intelligence.

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Chainalysis reports that encoded pointers embedded in Tron and Aptos transactions directed compromised devices to the same BSC transaction. In the workflow described, Tron functioned as an initial route, while Aptos served as a fallback if the first path did not work as intended.

The BSC transaction, according to Chainalysis, included encrypted server addresses and configuration data. Those encrypted details tied infected devices to off-chain infrastructure used for remote access and data theft—meaning the blockchain acted as the resilient “messaging layer” while the operational work moved outside the chain once instructions were retrieved.

For investors and builders, this multi-chain structure matters because it increases the surface area responders must monitor. Instead of focusing on a single chain or a single contract address type, defenders may need to track how attackers chain together multiple networks to improve reliability.

AI tools may be boosting malicious on-chain output

Chainalysis also links a surge in harmful blockchain behavior to developments in AI capabilities. The firm recorded a 440% increase in malicious blockchain writes since July 2025, a period it associates with when high-capacity open-source Chinese AI models became capable of producing malicious code with limited safeguards.

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Eric Jardine, cybercrimes research lead at Chainalysis, told Cointelegraph that the company found a “clear point-in-time association.” However, he emphasized that Chainalysis could not definitively prove that the actors responsible for the malicious transactions and contracts were specifically using those models to increase output.

This distinction is important. The data indicates timing alignment, but causality remains unconfirmed. Readers should treat the finding as an early warning about how quickly automated code generation tools could lower the cost of producing and deploying blockchain-based malware—without assuming a direct “AI used” attribution for every case.

Iran-linked actors using Bitcoin as a command channel

Beyond North Korea-linked cases, Chainalysis says it identified threat actors it suspects are linked to Iran’s Ministry of Intelligence writing encoded command-and-control routing data onto the Bitcoin blockchain.

Unlike approaches that rely on blockchain activity alone, Chainalysis states its assessment was grounded in a broader set of indicators: the malware family involved, the decoding method, timing patterns, and server infrastructure tied to previously reported Iranian operations.

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Chainalysis says attacker-controlled wallets sent small payments to a widely known Bitcoin address with historical ties to Satoshi Nakamoto. The report indicates that this address has no connection to the attackers; rather, it is used as a permanent public location that infected devices could check for updated routing instructions.

According to Chainalysis, the attackers could revise their server infrastructure by publishing another Bitcoin transaction. Once the malware obtained the new instructions, the operation could shift back off-chain, enabling behaviors such as remote access, credential theft, and delivery of additional malware payloads.

From a threat-management perspective, using a familiar and long-lived Bitcoin address complicates takedowns. Even if defenders act against the obvious infrastructure, the blockchain location can remain publicly available and function as a reliable beacon for compromised devices.

Why this trend is likely to keep intensifying

As dead drop techniques spread and as malicious on-chain writes accelerate, the challenge for the ecosystem is not just spotting individual malicious transactions—it’s anticipating how attackers design fallback routes, encrypt payloads, and distribute retrieval logic across chains. The most actionable takeaway for monitoring teams is to focus on behavior patterns around payload writes and encoded routing mechanisms, rather than relying solely on domain or server takedowns.

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Going forward, readers should watch whether defenders and analytics firms shift toward cross-chain correlation of encoded instruction flows, and whether future reporting can move beyond “association” to clearer evidence about how AI tooling is operationally integrated into these campaigns.

Risk & affiliate notice: Crypto assets are volatile and capital is at risk. This article may contain affiliate links. Read full disclosure

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