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Bitcoin Will Feel Ripple Effect of Prolonged Mideast War

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Bitcoin Will Feel Ripple Effect of Prolonged Mideast War

As geopolitical tensions escalate and global markets face a new wave of uncertainty, one asset has been behaving in an unexpected way: Bitcoin.

While the Middle East slides deeper into conflict and energy markets react to potential supply disruptions, the world’s largest cryptocurrency has held up relatively well compared to many traditional assets.

For some observers, that resilience raises an important question: Could Bitcoin be signaling something about the macro environment that markets haven’t fully priced in?

In our latest interview, Arthur Hayes, co-founder of Maelstrom, shares his perspective on the forces shaping the global economy, and why the coming months could prove pivotal for financial markets.

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On the geopolitical front, Hayes argues that investors may be underestimating the risks if the current conflict expands or drags on.

“I don’t think global markets are fully priced in [on] a longer war between the US and Iran,” he said. If energy flows are disrupted, the ripple effects could spread through the global economy via higher oil prices, inflationary pressure and increased volatility across markets.

At the same time, Hayes says another powerful disruption is unfolding beneath the surface: artificial intelligence.

According to him, AI could rapidly reshape the labor market by replacing a significant share of knowledge workers, from lawyers and bankers to accountants and analysts. If that transition happens quickly, the result could be widespread credit stress as households struggle to service existing debt.

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Ultimately, Hayes believes the global financial system tends to respond to crises the same way: with liquidity. “Bitcoin is essentially just a liquidity smoke alarm,” he says. 

To hear Hayes break down his macro thesis, watch the full interview on our YouTube channel and don’t forget to subscribe!

This interview has been edited and condensed for clarity.

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Crypto World

US National Cyber Strategy Pledges Support For Crypto And Blockchain

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Cryptocurrencies, United States, AI, Donald Trump, Quantum Computing

Crypto industry executives are combing through US President Donald Trump’s National Cyber Strategy after it was released on Friday, searching for hints about what it could signal for government support of the crypto industry.

“Crypto and blockchain are explicitly named as technologies to be ‘protected and secured.’ This is a first for any US cybersecurity strategy,” Galaxy Digital’s head of firmwide research Alex Thorn said in an X post on Friday.

Crypto and blockchain were mentioned once in the six-page report:

“We will build secure technologies and supply chains that protect user privacy from design to deployment, including supporting the security of cryptocurrencies and blockchain technologies.”

However, industry executives have also been interpreting other parts of the document to see how they relate to crypto.

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Cryptocurrencies, United States, AI, Donald Trump, Quantum Computing
Source: Mark Chadwick

Thorn pointed to a section pledging to “uproot criminal infrastructure and deny financial exit and safe haven.” “This language could easily justify crackdowns on mixers, privacy coins, and unregulated off-ramps,” he said.

Bitcoin VC points out that quantum has been taken “seriously”

Castle Island Ventures founder Nic Carter, who has been vocal about the threat of quantum computing to Bitcoin (BTC) in recent times, pointed to the section saying the government “will accelerate the modernization, defensibility, and resilience of federal information systems by implementing cybersecurity best practices, post-quantum cryptography, zero-trust architecture, and cloud transition.”

“Sure seems like they’re taking quantum seriously. Nothing to worry about, I’m sure,” Carter said in an X post.

It comes as the crypto industry continues to debate about how close quantum computing is to being a serious threat to Bitcoin. On Feb. 15, Carter said that major Bitcoin-holding institutions may eventually lose patience with Bitcoin developers for not addressing quantum computing concerns quickly enough.

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Trump points to the next generation as a priority

Trump said that the National Cyber Security outlines his priorities for “ensuring that America remains unrivaled in cyberspace.” Artificial intelligence was a key focus of the report.

“We will secure the AI technology stack—including our data centers—and promote innovation in AI security,” it said.

Related: Community banks and crypto industry ‘are allies’ in CLARITY Act debate: Exec

Trump also emphasized the importance of recruiting the next generation of workers in the cyber workforce to “design and deploy exquisite cyber technologies and solutions.”

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The US typically releases a national cybersecurity strategy every administration, outlining the government’s priorities for emerging technologies.

Magazine: The debate over Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is over: Benjamin Cowen