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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending, Fidelity Research Suggests

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Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle May Be Ending, Fidelity Research Suggests

TLDR:

  • Fidelity data shows Bitcoin volatility hitting record lows even months after the 2025 price peak near $126,000.
  • Public companies and ETFs now hold nearly 12% of Bitcoin supply, signaling major institutional accumulation.
  • Bitcoin’s MVRV ratio has stayed near 2x realized value this cycle, far below peaks seen in past bull markets.
  • Fidelity’s profit-to-volatility ratio has remained above 0.015 since 2023, marking the longest stability period.

Bitcoin’s market behavior may be entering a new phase, according to recent research from Fidelity Digital Assets. 

The firm argues that long-standing boom-and-bust cycles could weaken as institutional demand reshapes the market. Data shows volatility hitting record lows even months after Bitcoin reached new price highs. 

The question now is whether the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle still defines the crypto market.

Bitcoin Volatility Trends Challenge the Classic Four-Year Cycle

Bitcoin reached a market capitalization near $2.5 trillion during its October 2025 peak. Prices climbed above $126,000 during that rally.

However, volatility moved in the opposite direction. One-year realized volatility recorded 17 new all-time lows in January 2026.

Source: Fidelity Digital Assets

According to Fidelity Digital Assets research, this pattern differs sharply from previous cycles. Historically, volatility surged as Bitcoin approached market peaks.

The current trend suggests a shift toward a larger and more liquid market. Fidelity compared Bitcoin’s growth to large-cap technology companies reaching maturity.

The firm notes that Bitcoin’s market size has expanded rapidly across cycles. The asset is now twice as large as its 2021 peak valuation.

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It also stands nearly ten times larger than the 2017 cycle peak. Compared with 2013, Bitcoin’s market capitalization has expanded more than 200-fold.

Fidelity’s data shows volatility began declining in late 2023. At the time, Bitcoin traded near $27,000 before starting its latest rally.

Institutional Demand Reshapes Bitcoin Market Structure

Demand patterns have changed significantly as institutions enter the market. Public companies and exchange-traded products now hold a growing share of supply.

According to Fidelity Digital Assets, 49 public companies hold more than 1,000 Bitcoin each. Combined holdings exceed one million BTC.

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Source: Fidelity Digital Assets

That amount represents more than five percent of Bitcoin’s circulating supply. The cohort has steadily increased holdings since early 2020.

Exchange-traded products have accelerated institutional accumulation. Spot Bitcoin ETPs launched in the United States in January 2024.

By January 2026, those vehicles collectively held nearly 1.3 million Bitcoin. This equals roughly 6.4 percent of the circulating supply.

Fidelity reported that the leading Bitcoin ETF surpassed $75 billion in assets within two years. Gold’s GLD ETF required almost seven years to reach that milestone.

On-chain metrics also suggest a calmer market cycle. Bitcoin’s market value to realized value ratio has remained near two throughout the current bull market.

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Earlier cycles saw sharper expansions. The ratio reached six during 2013 and four during both the 2017 and 2021 cycles.

Fidelity estimates that reaching a ratio of four again would imply a $4.5 trillion Bitcoin market cap. That level corresponds to roughly $225,000 per coin.

The firm also introduced a “Profit to Volatility Ratio” metric. It compares profitable addresses with realized volatility.

That ratio has remained above 0.015 since late 2023. Fidelity describes this period as the longest stretch of stability in Bitcoin’s history.

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Crypto World

Trump crypto czar David Sacks exits role after 130 days

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Trump crypto czar David Sacks exits role after 130 days

The US government’s crypto and AI czar, David Sacks, is stepping down from his special government employee (SGE) role to join Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg and Nvidia’s Jensen Huang on Donald Trump’s new tech council. 

Sacks announced his departure in an Interview with Bloomberg that also covered the President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST).

Sacks told Bloomberg, “In the first year of the Trump administration, I had that role as an SGE. I had 130 days.”

“We’ve now used up that time,” Sacks said, adding that his role as co-chair of PCAST means he’ll now “make recommendations on not just AI, but an expansive range of technology topics.”

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Sacks shared an assessment from Elon Musk’s GROK that tried to clarify if his departure was a promotion or not.

Read more: David Sacks promised ‘market structure bill in 100 days’ a year ago

The council has been created to guide tech policies within government, and counts major tech executives such as Marc Andreessen and Sergey Brin among its ranks.  

Tesla CEO Elon Musk was also a SGE under Trump’s administration, and also stepped down from the role after 130 days. He won’t be part of the tech council, however.

Sacks’ time as crypto czar was bittersweet 

Under Sacks’ stewardship, the US administration loosened its grip on crypto regulations, the president launched a memecoin, and the government promised to implement a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR). 

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During this time, it gained a reputation for intense profiteering and crypto corruption. Indeed, Trump’s son Eric boasted very publicly about his family making profits of $1 billion from its various crypto enterprises. 

Sacks promised in February last year that the market structures bill, aka the CLARITY Act, and stablecoin legislation, also known as the GENIUS Act, would have been passed through the Senate and House within 100 days. 

While the GENIUS Act was passed, albeit well beyond the self-imposed deadline, the CLARITY Act is still struggling to join it. 

Sacks was revealed by the New York Times to have held over 400 investments in various crypto and AI firms while still maintaining his SGE role in Trump’s administration, raising concerns about a potential conflict of interest.  

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The administration also signed into existence the SBR but it was watered down significantly when officials revealed that the US wouldn’t be buying any BTC to contribute to the it and would instead rely on the coins it had already seized and forfeited.

An audit of crypto assets intended for both the SBR and Digital Asset Stockpile was supposed to be complete by April 5, 2025. However, no such review has been published almost 356 days after the deadline.

Read more: David Sacks sends silly legal threat to the New York Times

Crypto traders happy about David Sacks crypto czar departure

Upon discovering Sacks’ departure yesterday, X users have remarked on the less-than-stellar effect he had on the crypto market. 

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Venture capitalist Adam Cochran mocked Bitcoiners who voted for Trump, asking “How’d that bitcoin reserve work out for you? Remember those day one promises?”

“Remember how Trump and Sacks promised you the world, and you told us we had TDS when we told you that you were getting played?” he added. 

Others pointed to today’s BTC price of $66,600, and how it’s down 34% from the day Sacks was inaugurated as crypto czar. 

Read more: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve audit now 172 days overdue

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Traders have also complained that under Sacks’ role, nothing was actually achieved, adding that he’s “the single most useless person of Trump administration [sic] (right there with Trump).”

Eleanor Terrett reports that it’s unclear whether or not Sacks’ crypto czar role will be replaced while major crypto legislation, such as the CLARITY Act, continues to work its way through the Senate.

If the Trump administration does decide to hire a replacement, at least one willing candidate has already thrown their hat into the ring on X. Despite currently serving a 25-year prison sentence, FTX fraudster Sam Bankman-Fried posted simply “dibs.”

Got a tip? Send us an email securely via Protos Leaks. For more informed news and investigations, follow us on XBluesky, and Google News, or subscribe to our YouTube channel.

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ECB Study Questions How Decentralized DeFi Governance Really is

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ECB Study Questions How Decentralized DeFi Governance Really is

The European Central Bank published a working paper on March 26, finding that governance in four major DeFi protocols was heavily concentrated.

The staff paper looks at Aave, MakerDAO, Ampleforth and Uniswap, and finds that while governance tokens are held across tens of thousands of addresses, the top 100 holders control more than 80% of the supply in each protocol.

Based on holdings snapshots from November 2022 and May 2023, the authors found that a large share of governance tokens could be linked either to the protocols themselves or to centralized and decentralized exchanges, with Binance the largest identified centralized exchange holder across the four protocols.

The authors said the findings challenge the idea that decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs) are inherently decentralized, raising questions about accountability and complicating efforts to identify possible regulatory anchor points under the European Union’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCA) framework. MiCA currently excludes “fully decentralised” services from its scope.

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Top token holders dominate governance

The authors also look at who actually votes on key proposals, concluding that top voters are mostly delegates who wield delegated voting power from smaller token holders. 

The top 20 voters in Ampleforth control 96% of delegated voting power, while the top 10 voters in MakerDAO hold 66% of delegated votes, and the top 18 in Uniswap hold 52%. Around one-third of top voters cannot be publicly identified, and among those that can, the largest groups are individuals and Web3 companies, followed by university blockchain societies and venture firms.

Related: DAOs may need to ditch decentralization to court institutions

ECB Working Paper on DeFi: Source: ECB

Cointelegraph reached out to Aave, Uniswap, MakerDAO, and Ampleforth, but had not received a response by publication.

Kavi Jain, senior research associate at Bitwise, told Cointelegraph that many large DeFi protocols were not as decentralized in practice as they might appear, especially in the earlier stages, where a small group still has “meaningful influence over decisions.”

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He pointed to the recent Aave governance debate that highlighted how, even with a DAO structure, voting power can “still be concentrated among a few participants.”

MiCA faces DeFi accountability problem

The paper catalogues what governance actually decides, finding that the largest share of proposals relates to “risk parameters” that shape the protocols’ risk profiles. That raises further questions about accountability, especially given that it is “not possible” to tell from public data whether protocol-linked holdings belong to founders, developers or treasuries, or whether exchange wallets are voting their own positions or those of customers.

Related: How a 2.85% price error triggered $27M in liquidations on Aave

There are some caveats with the methodology, and the paper itself warns that it does not capture the “full scope of the DeFi ecosystem,” due to insufficient data.

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The paper also stresses that it reflects the authors’ views rather than official ECB policy, however, it warns that the difficulty of reliably identifying who controls major protocols makes it harder to lean on popular entry points such as governance token holders, developers or centralized exchanges, and says that the relevant anchor may differ protocol by protocol and require information that is not publicly available.

Its findings echo earlier warnings from the Financial Stability Board and others, cited in the paper, that DeFi’s promise of disintermediation often masks new forms of concentration and governance risk that resemble, and sometimes amplify, those seen in traditional finance.

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