TLDR:

• ONDO has rallied over 100% from its local lows and is now testing major Fibonacci resistance.
• Elliott Wave structure suggests the current move may still be a corrective rally within a bearish trend.
• A breakout above $0.598 could invalidate the bearish setup and support further upside momentum.
• Ondo’s RWA narrative gains traction through ties with JPMorgan, Mastercard, and Ripple pilots.

The ONDO price is shifting toward whether ONDO can sustain momentum or face renewed selling pressure at overhead resistance. 

ONDO Price Analysis Signals Caution Near Major Resistance

ONDO has posted an aggressive recovery since bouncing from the February capitulation zone near $0.19. The move delivered a strong upside reaction after months of sustained downside pressure across the broader altcoin market.

The current rally has now pushed the price directly into the $0.486 to $0.598 region. This zone represents the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the prior decline, making it a critical technical barrier.

In Elliott Wave analysis, this area often acts as the termination point for wave 4 recoveries before the broader downtrend resumes.

Although price action has remained constructive, the structure of the rally continues to raise caution. The advance shows overlapping internal moves rather than the clean breakout behavior usually associated with a fresh bullish impulse. This suggests the recent recovery may still be corrective.

The bearish structure remains valid while ONDO trades below $0.598. If price fails to clear this resistance cluster, downside pressure could return quickly. The first major downside trigger remains a break below $0.35, which would suggest the rally has likely topped.

In that scenario, ONDO could revisit the $0.24 support zone initially. Additional weakness may expose the prior capitulation floor near $0.19 once again.

Institutional RWA Narrative Keeps ONDO in Spotlight

Despite technical caution, ONDO continues attracting strong attention due to its expanding role in tokenized finance.

The recent collaboration involving JPMorgan Chase, Mastercard, Ripple, and Ondo Finance has strengthened market confidence in the project’s long-term narrative.

The pilot reportedly demonstrated tokenized US Treasury settlement across institutions in under five seconds. This development addresses one of traditional finance’s major inefficiencies by improving settlement speed and cross-border liquidity movement.

As tokenized Treasuries gain traction, ONDO is increasingly being positioned within the infrastructure layer of the Real World Asset market.

Analysts view this as a strong narrative catalyst, especially as institutions continue exploring blockchain settlement solutions.

From a technical perspective, maintaining support above $0.35 to $0.40 keeps the medium-term bullish structure intact. However, a confirmed breakout above $0.598 remains the most important trigger for trend continuation.

If bulls secure that move, ONDO could open a path toward $0.70, with momentum potentially extending toward the $0.85 region in the next expansion phase.

TLDR:

• Pompliano declared confidence that Bitcoin’s cycle bottom was established at the $60K price level.
• Institutional accumulation by buyers like MicroStrategy created consistent demand against Bitcoin’s fixed supply.
• Pomp argues volatility compression has broken Bitcoin out of its traditional four-year market cycle.
• Bitcoin, stablecoins, and tokenization are the assets Pompliano sees surviving and leading crypto’s next phase.

Bitcoin’s recent price action has renewed debate over whether the market has already seen its cycle low. Anthony Pompliano, widely known as “Pomp,” made a bold claim, stating, “I’m pretty confident that was the bottom at $60K.”

His comments came during a broader discussion on Bitcoin’s fundamentals, institutional adoption, and long-term outlook. The statement has since drawn significant attention from investors watching Bitcoin’s next move closely.

Pompliano Points to $60K as the Cycle Bottom

Pompliano’s confidence in the $60K bottom is rooted in Bitcoin’s core fundamentals. He described Bitcoin as offering “certainty” that traditional assets simply cannot provide.

Unlike gold or U.S. Treasuries, Bitcoin’s fixed supply and transparent monetary policy give investors a clear picture of what they own. That clarity, he argues, is what separates Bitcoin from every other asset class available today.

He also noted that the shift from fear to confidence among investors played a major role in establishing that floor. When prices hovered around $60K, many retail and institutional participants were still hesitant.

Pompliano described this period as one where the market needed to move from “fear to confidence” before a sustained recovery could take hold. That transition, in his view, defined the bottom.

Institutional activity also supported the case for $60K as a turning point. Buyers like Michael Saylor and MicroStrategy were accumulating during that period, adding consistent demand against a fixed supply.

However, Pompliano was careful not to overstate any single buyer’s role, calling the recovery a “confluence of events” rather than the result of one catalyst. Each factor reinforced the other, creating a durable floor.

Pompliano also challenged the traditional four-year Bitcoin cycle, arguing that “volatility compression” has changed how the market behaves entirely. Price movements now happen faster and with less dramatic drawdowns than in previous cycles.

If that pattern holds, the $60K level may represent the deepest pullback of this cycle. Investors waiting for lower prices, he suggested, may have already missed their entry point.

Bitcoin’s Fundamentals Back the Bullish Case

Beyond the price call, Pompliano laid out the structural reasons Bitcoin is well-positioned from here. He described Bitcoin as “the only asset” offering digital scarcity, decentralization, and a predictable monetary policy at the same time.

In periods of geopolitical tension and economic volatility, those qualities attract serious capital. Investors seeking certainty are finding fewer alternatives outside of Bitcoin.

He also addressed the growing intersection of artificial intelligence and crypto. Pompliano argued that AI systems will increasingly require assets like Bitcoin and stablecoins to operate, framing both industries under the broader theme of “automation.”

Crypto infrastructure, therefore, becomes a foundational layer for the emerging automation economy. Venture firm a16z has already raised a dedicated fund targeting exactly this convergence.

On surviving assets within crypto, Pompliano was direct and unambiguous. He expressed strong conviction in Bitcoin, stablecoins, equity infrastructure, and tokenization as the areas that will endure.

Most altcoins and meme coins, he argued, are unlikely to recover meaningfully. The smarter approach, in his words, is to “provide the venue” for speculation rather than being the one speculating.

While acknowledging that Bitcoin’s days of delivering 100x returns are behind it, Pompliano remains firmly bullish on its long-term performance. He expects Bitcoin to outperform equities over a sustained period.

For investors who missed the $60K entry, his message is straightforward — “the bottom,” by his assessment, is already in.

TLDR:

• Digital Asset is targeting $300M at a $2B valuation, with a16z crypto set to lead the funding round.
• Canton Network has processed over $6 trillion in tokenized assets, drawing major institutional backers globally.
• A16z crypto raised $2.2B for its fifth fund, bringing total dedicated crypto capital to roughly $10 billion.
• Crypto venture deal counts dropped sharply to 97 in Q1 2026, down from 427 in the same quarter last year.

Digital Asset Holdings, the company behind the Canton Network blockchain, is in talks to raise approximately $300 million at a valuation of around $2 billion.

Bloomberg reported the round on Sunday, citing sources familiar with the matter. The financing, led by a16z crypto, is expected to close within weeks. Final figures could still shift before the deal is sealed.

a16z Crypto Takes the Lead in Major Institutional Blockchain Bet

The raise marks a sharp jump from Digital Asset’s earlier funding rounds. In June 2025, the company secured $135 million led by DRW Venture Capital and Tradeweb Markets. Goldman Sachs, Citadel Securities, and DTCC also participated in that round.

A follow-on raise of $50 million came in December 2025 from BNY Mellon, Nasdaq, S&P Global, and iCapital. The new $300 million round would therefore represent a substantial step up in both size and valuation.

For a16z crypto, the investment follows the firm raising $2.2 billion for its fifth dedicated crypto fund. That brings the firm’s total crypto capital to roughly $10 billion across five vehicles.

A16z general partner Ali Yahya addressed the privacy question directly in January, writing that privacy is “the critical missing feature preventing global finance from fully moving onchain.”

That view aligns directly with what Canton Network offers. Unlike Ethereum or Solana, Canton is built with protocol-level privacy and confidentiality guarantees. Those features are central to its pitch for institutional adoption.

Canton Network Gains Traction Across Institutional Finance

Canton is a public, permissionless Layer 1 blockchain with configurable privacy tools. It supports smart contracts written in Digital Asset’s open-source language, Daml.

The network is designed to handle tokenized asset workflows while keeping transaction data confidential between parties.

Institutional momentum has been building steadily. More than $6 trillion in tokenized assets have been issued or processed on the network. In March, Visa became a Canton Super Validator, marking the payments company’s first blockchain governance role.

Visa later added Canton to its stablecoin settlement pilot in April, alongside Base, Polygon, Arc, and Tempo. Also in March, a project called Zenith completed atomic swaps between Canton and an EVM-compatible environment, opening a potential bridge to Ethereum developers.

In November, Canton Strategic Holdings raised $540 million to build a Canton Coin treasury. Backers included DRW, ARK Invest, and Kraken. The broader venture picture, however, remains uneven.

Quarterly crypto deal counts fell to 97 in Q1 2026, down from 427 in the same period a year earlier, per The Block. Some historically active crypto funds are increasingly shifting focus toward AI and robotics.

Michael Saylor, co-founder of Strategy, signaled that the Bitcoin treasury company will resume its BTC purchases this week, following an earnings call on Tuesday, during which he said the company may periodically sell portions of its treasury.

“Back to work, BTC,” Saylor said in an X post on Sunday, messaging that has previously preceded a BTC purchase, which typically the day after his posts.

The company last purchased BTC on April 27, buying 3,273 coins for about $255 million, which brought its total holdings to 818,334 BTC. Those holdings were worth about $61.8 billion, according to Strategy’s website at the time of publication.

Strategy’s history of Bitcoin purchases since 2020. Source: SaylorTracker.com

The company paused its BTC buying streak for one week ahead of Tuesday’s first quarter 2026 earnings call, in which Saylor said that the company could sell portions of its Bitcoin holdings periodically to pay dividends to holders of its credit instruments.

The announcement appeared to contradict the company’s previous stance of never selling BTC, and the sales could weigh on Bitcoin’s market price by introducing new selling pressure, critics of the move say.

Related: Bitcoin’s recent rally is largely fueled by Strategy purchases: Bitwise’s Hougan

Strategy CEO says dividend-funding sale could “inoculate” the market

“We’ll probably sell some Bitcoin to fund a dividend, just to inoculate the market, just to send the message that we did it,” Saylor said during Strategy’s Q1 earnings call.

The announcement drew mixed reactions from the Bitcoin community, with some, like Strategy investor Adam Livingston, arguing that periodic sales will be accretive for the company’s treasury, allowing it to finance the purchase of more BTC in the future.

Strategy’s Bitcoin per share since 2020, measured in sats, the base unit of Bitcoin. Source: SaylorTracker.com

Bitcoin advocate Samson Mow said Strategy’s ability to sell BTC gives it optionality and greater room to maneuver in the financial markets.

Others social media sentiment posited that Strategy’s Bitcoin sales and credit instruments will create a “doom loop” that suppresses the spot market price of BTC.

Strategy CEO Phong Le clarified that the company would only sell BTC in specific instances, including paying dividend yields and deferring taxes, and that neither its sales nor purchases should affect Bitcoin’s market price.

Bitcoin’s average daily trading volume of more than $60 billion could easily absorb Strategy’s $1.5 billion in annual dividend payments owed to holders of its corporate credit products, he said.

“I don’t think we’re driving the price up or down,” Le told CNBC, adding that the company owns about 4% of the total BTC supply. 

Magazine: Big Questions: Can Bitcoin save you from the dreaded Cantillon Effect?

TLDR:

• • Bitcoin’s realized cap monthly growth has returned to +0.25%, ending a steep -2.6% decline recorded in February 2025.
    
  • The February correction triggered realized losses as investors who bought BTC at higher prices exited their positions.
    
  • The downturn reflected a weak-to-strong hands transfer, with patient buyers absorbing supply from loss-realizing sellers.
  • Analysts now watch whether rising profit-taking will slow recovery or if fresh demand will sustain the positive cap trend.

Bitcoin’s realized cap has moved back into positive monthly growth, posting a gain of +0.25% after a steep decline.

This shift follows a difficult correction period that pushed the metric to -2.6% in February. The realized cap tracks the difference between realized profits and realized losses in the market.

It is considered one of the clearest measures of capital movement. Analysts are now watching closely to see whether the trend can hold as market conditions improve.

Realized Cap Drop Reflected Investor Losses During Correction

The February decline in Bitcoin’s realized cap came as investors sold holdings at a loss. Many of those investors had purchased BTC at higher price levels earlier in the cycle. As selling pressure grew, the realized cap pulled back sharply, reflecting capital destruction in the market.

Crypto analyst Darkfost explained the pattern on X, noting that the realized cap measures “the difference between realized profits and realized losses.” During the downturn, this balance tilted heavily toward losses. That shift dragged the monthly growth rate deep into negative territory.

The correction phase also produced a shift in ownership. Investors unwilling to absorb further losses exited their positions and transferred holdings to buyers at lower prices.

This process is commonly referred to as a transfer from weak hands to strong hands. It is a pattern that has appeared in previous Bitcoin market cycles.

Even so, overall sentiment during the correction remained cautious. New capital did not immediately return to the market after prices fell. Buyers waited for valuations to reach levels they considered attractive before committing fresh funds to Bitcoin.

Positive Shift Suggests New Capital Is Returning to Bitcoin

Now that the realized cap has turned positive again, the market dynamic appears to be changing. According to Darkfost, “investor sentiment is improving as capital begins flowing back into the market.”

That change is reflected in the monthly growth figure moving above zero for the first time since the downturn.

The +0.25% reading is modest on its own. However, coming directly after a -2.6% monthly decline, it carries weight as a directional shift. Analysts tend to look at this kind of recovery as an early sign that buyers are returning with confidence.

Capital inflows at this stage often reflect improved sentiment among both retail and institutional participants. When new money enters the market, it tends to push realized profits higher. That, in turn, supports further growth in the realized cap over subsequent months.

The central question, as Darkfost noted, is whether this recovery can continue as more investors take profits. If selling pressure increases alongside rising prices, the growth rate could stall again. However, if demand absorbs that supply, the realized cap is likely to continue its upward trend.

Ethereum’s native token, Ether (ETH), has dropped more than 35% versus Bitcoin (BTC) over the last 12 months, a slide that market observers say could have further to run if technical and on-chain signals play out. The underperformance comes as Bitcoin continues to attract corporate interest and mainstream adoption, while Ethereum faces a mix of liquidity and momentum headwinds that have tempered its rally narratives.

Key takeaways:

• ETH/BTC remains trapped below a multi-year descending trend line that has capped breakouts since 2022, with a potential 40% downside target toward 0.0176 BTC if the weakness persists into 2026.
• Binance ETH reserves climbed to 3.62 million ETH as of May, about 24.6% of all Ether held on exchanges, signaling higher near-term selling risk, according to CryptoQuant data.
• Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, highlighting divergent exchange liquidity trends between the two assets.
• The broader market narrative, including Ethereum’s lingering “ultrasound money” momentum and BTC’s growing institutional interest, continues to shape relative performance and risk sentiment.

ETH-BTC: technical setup points to extended weakness

ETH/BTC has remained entrenched beneath a long-standing descending trend line that has constrained every major breakout since 2022. The pattern mirrors a similar setup that preceded the steep drop from late 2024 into 2025, suggesting the same structural pressure could reassert itself if BTC and ETH fail to find fresh demand.

In August 2025, ETH/BTC briefly retested the trend line, only to be repelled at a convergence zone that included the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 50-month exponential moving average. Since then, the pair slid back below the 20-month moving average, which now acts as a resistance-turned-signal of selling pressure around the 0.034 BTC level.

The chart implies a potential objective around 0.0176 BTC if selling continues, a level that would represent roughly a 40% decline from recent prices and aligns with the 2020 cycle bottom. Traders watching the eth/btc ladder see this as a crucial test of whether Ether can regain tempo or if Bitcoin’s uptrend remains the dominant driver of market risk appetite.

On-chain and exchange signals paint a mixed liquidity picture

On-chain data from CryptoQuant highlights a notable divergence in exchange balances between ETH and BTC. Ether reserves on Binance—the world’s largest crypto exchange by volume—have risen to 3.62 million ETH as of May, accounting for about 24.6% of all Ether held on crypto exchanges. This increase in available ETH suggests more supply could be poised for sale if buyers do not absorb it in the current market environment.

In contrast, Bitcoin reserves on Binance have fallen, signaling tighter exchange-side liquidity for BTC. The opposite dynamics—rising ETH supply versus diminishing BTC supply on exchanges—help explain, at least in part, the ongoing divergences in price action between the two assets.

Higher exchange balances for ETH often translate into greater near-term selling pressure, especially when demand lacks the vigor to match supply. By contrast, shrinking BTC reserves can reflect a combination of hodling behavior and a rotation of liquidity away from centralized venues, which can give BTC a relative edge when risk sentiment shifts.

These reserve patterns add a practical dimension to the broader narrative: Ether appears more exposed to potential supply-driven downside on exchange rails, while Bitcoin benefits from tighter liquidity and, in some cases, a stronger bid from institutional participants stepping into the market.

Narrative tensions and market context: where the momentum sits

Beyond the charts and on-chain metrics, the fundamental backdrop for Ether remains a topic of debate. For years, Ether’s “ultrasound money” narrative — the idea of a deflationary or steadily scarce asset embedded in Ethereum’s monetary dynamics — helped frame ETH as a better long-term store of value relative to fiat or even BTC in some cycles. However, that narrative has cooled in recent periods, contributing to a prolonged period of lag versus Bitcoin on a relative performance basis.

Bitcoin, meanwhile, has benefited from growing corporate engagement and wider adoption into traditional portfolios. Market observers have pointed to evidence of corporate accumulation and strategic participation by institutions as a tailwind for BTC’s price resilience. Notably, retail and institutional access to spot BTC trading, including upcoming offerings and integration into mainstream platforms, continues to shape the adoption trajectory for BTC more than ETH in several market segments.

Recent coverage underscores this asymmetry: corporate players have shown sustained interest in BTC, while Ethereum’s growth narrative has faced headwinds that temper a broad-based upside versus BTC. In parallel, developments such as retail access expansions for spot BTC and ETH trading — including moves from traditional financial firms into crypto markets — remain in focus for readers watching how the market prices risk, liquidity, and opportunity across the digital asset spectrum.

Related commentary has explored how these dynamic shifts could influence capex decisions for developers, liquidity provisioning for exchanges, and the pace of adoption on Layer 2s and decentralized finance ecosystems. As the market absorbs these cross-currents, traders may look for catalysts that could tilt the balance—ranging from further macro normalization to concrete progress on Ethereum’s scaling roadmap and the evolution of centralized exchange liquidity pools.

On balance, the ETH-BTC relationship continues to hinge on a mix of technical barriers, on-chain liquidity signals, and the evolving narrative around what each asset represents to investors and users in different market regimes. While BTC’s path remains susceptible to institutional demand and liquidity dynamics, Ether’s fate will likely be decided by how supply pressure on exchanges interacts with network upgrades, layer-2 maturation, and the broader pace of Ethereum’s ecosystem development.

Readers should watch whether ETH can push through the established trend line, or if the combination of rising ETH supply on major exchanges and continued resistance around key moving averages keeps the pair under pressure. The next price pivot around 0.0176 BTC would not only mark a technical breakpoint but also signal whether Ether can reassert a case for value relative to BTC in the face of shifting liquidity and narrative forces.

The data underpinning these observations draw from CryptoQuant’s exchange-flow analytics, with ETH reserve figures specifically cited for Binance as of May. For anyone tracking the liquidity landscape, these metrics provide a practical lens into where risk might be concentrated in the near term and how institutional and retail behavior could shape the next leg of the crypto cycle.

What unfolds next could hinge on how much buy-side demand returns to ETH in the face of a higher supply ceiling on exchanges and whether BTC’s liquidity backdrop remains supportive as institutional participation continues to expand. Keep an eye on reserve trends, price action around the critical trend line, and any regulatory or product developments that could tilt market sentiment in the coming weeks and months.